SB Nation User Blog: bigthree17

Joe Morgan (cough, cough) loves the A's!!!

bigthree17 — Thu, 28 Jul 2005 19:31:21 -0000

That's right, I couldn't believe it either. But he hypes the A's as possibly the best team in baseball now that St. Louis has been beset by injury. Granted he still gives no credit to our boy Billy, but hey, it's a start.

Here's the relevant portion of the article that deals with his analysis on the A's:

In case you hadn't noticed, the Oakland Athletics have the best record in baseball since the All-Star break (11-3).

Going further back, the A's are 38-14 (a winning percentage of .731) since they lost eight straight toward the end of May. Earlier in May, the team had suffered another eight-game losing streak. Oakland went 7-20 in May, including a 4-20 stretch lodged between a May 1 victory and wins on May 30 and 31.

At that time, everyone was saying the A's were done -- except one guy who e-mailed during my weekly ESPN.com chat. He said the A's were still a good team and would recover when they got healthy. That's the only guy I know of who still believed in the A's in May.

At the moment, the A's appear to be the best team in the baseball.
I don't know, maybe that was actually GM Billy Beane who e-mailed -- but whoever it was, give him credit, because now everyone is on the A's bandwagon ... including me!

The St. Louis Cardinals are the most complete team in baseball, but they've been hit by some injuries lately. So, at the moment, the A's appear to be the best team in the game. They've gone from the struggling A's to the amazing A's in two months. Clearly, they're playing better than any other team.

Two months ago, it looked as though Oakland had no chance to catch the first-place Angels. But the A's are proving that their 7-20 May was an aberration. Now they are in second place, only four games behind the Angels, and they lead the wild-card race.

How have the A's bounced back?

It has been a team effort, and let's start with the pitching staff. Rich Harden will be a superstar as long as he stays healthy. He's the anchor of the staff, even with Barry Zito still in the rotation as the last remaining member of Oakland's old Big Three.

After Harden and Zito, the rest of the rotation features Danny Haren, Joe Blanton and Kirk Saarloos. Zito, 27, is the oldest of the group.

This is a good nucleus, though the last three aren't better than Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson (the departed members of the Big Three). The jury is still out on those three young pitchers, but they're pitching well this season.

But the jury isn't out on Harden. He's the same caliber pitcher as the Big Three, and he'll be an ace.

Meanwhile, I've been surprised at how productive the offense has been. Since the All-Star break, the A's have scored more runs than any other team. Offense has been a weakness for Oakland since Miguel Tejada became a free agent and signed with the Baltimore Orioles before last season.

When I look at the A's offense, I don't understand how it's generating all those numbers with the personnel available. The only proven RBI guy is Eric Chavez (17 HRs, 60 RBI), but the A's are scoring runs. It's a perfect example of the whole being better than the parts.

Between the surprising offense and the solid pitching, Oakland has been winning in different ways. The A's can beat you 2-1 or 12-11. They took seven of eight recently from the Texas Rangers by outscoring them, and they took two of three from the Angels by shutting them down (because the Angels' pitchers threw well). The A's are getting good pitching when they need it, and they're scoring runs when they have to.

As Sunday's trade deadline approaches, I don't see the A's making any big deals. But the big-market teams like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, who might end up battling Oakland for the wild card, could make some big deals that would shift the balance of power in the AL.

What about Alex Sanchez?

bigthree17 — Mon, 13 Jun 2005 21:54:42 -0000

I know he's not a typical guy we would covet, but why not? He just got designated for assignment by the D-Rays, so the asking price can't be much. So far this year he's having a career year, batting .346/.373/.466/.839. He's always had a high average (career .297), although before this year his OBP was not stellar considering the above-average BA. Plus, he's a lefty who is hitting well against both RHP (.837 OPS) and LHP (.857 OPS), so he might be a candidate to platoon with Byrnes or Kielty against RHP.

He's also just 28, and makes $600,000 this year. He would add some speed to our lineup (although absolutely zero pop).

One bad note: I've seen him butcher more than a couple of balls in the OF that have cost his teams games. But it's not like Byrnes or Kielty (or even Swisher) is going to win a Gold Glove anytime soon.

What's to lose? He's been DFA for cryin' out loud. Food for thought.

Crosby's okay

bigthree17 — Fri, 01 Apr 2005 03:52:14 -0000

The x-rays showed no break. The wrist is just swollen and discolored. He says he's gonna try to play Opening Day, but even if he misses a couple of games, this is great news.

It not so great news, Bocachica's x-rays came back positive. He's out 6-8 weeks. Better him than Crosby, but it's still too bad.

One writer's take on our top 10 prospects

bigthree17 — Mon, 21 Feb 2005 17:48:35 -0000

From rotoworld:

Oakland Athletics

1. Nick Swisher - OF - Age 24 - ETA: Now

.269/.406/.537, 29 HR, 92 RBI, 109/103 K/BB, 3 SB in 443 AB for Triple-A Sacramento

.250/.352/.417, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 11/8 K/BB, 0 SB in 60 AB for Oakland

Swisher hit just .230/.324/.380 in 76 games after being moved up to Double-A in 2003, but the A's still had him start last year at Sacramento, and he rewarded their confidence by becoming one of the PCL's best hitters. A center fielder in the minors, Swisher is probably going to patrol right field in Oakland this year, and the feeling is that he might eventually settle in as an excellent defensive first baseman. He might forever be a .260 hitter, but the 30 homers and 90-100 walks per year will make up for it, leaving him an above average player no matter where he ends up. He'll be a Rookie of the Year contender if he gets 500 at-bats.

2. Joe Blanton - RHP - Age 24 - ETA: Now

11-8, 4.19 ERA, 199 H, 143/34 K/BB in 176 1/3 IP for Triple-A Sacramento

0-0, 5.63 ERA, 6 H, 6/2 K/BB in 8 IP for Oakland

Blanton lacks ace upside, but he is a safer bet to become a quality No. 3 starter than just about any other pitching prospect. He tops out at 95 mph, possesses four major league pitches and has a 348/68 K/BB ratio in 365 1/3 IP since being drafted. Blanton usually works in the low-90s and his slider is his out pitch. His curveball can be above average when he's on, but he's not as good at spotting it as he is his slider. His changeup is barely average and still needs more work. Blanton should be an adequate fourth starter for the A's this year. More will be expected in 2006.

3. Daric Barton - C/1B - Age 19 - ETA: 2008

.313/.445/.511, 13 HR, 77 RBI, 44/69 K/BB, 4 SB in 313 AB for low Single-A Peoria

So he's probably not a catcher. Barton has nearly as much offensive upside as anyone in the minors. The 2003 first-round pick put up extraordinary numbers for an 18-year-old in a full-season league last year. The A's may not even mess with leaving him behind the plate after picking him up from St. Louis in the Mark Mulder deal. Since catchers have high injury rates and tend to stall offensively, a move would probably be for the best. Barton shows outstanding on-base skills and his left-handed stroke could be good for 30 homers per year in the majors. He'll get a long look at first base, but it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see him become Oakland's DH in 2007 or 2008.

4. Dan Meyer - LHP - Age 23 - ETA: June 2005

6-3, 2.22 ERA, 50 H, 86/12 K/BB in 65 IP for Double-A Greenville

3-3, 2.79 ERA, 62 H, 60/25 K/BB in 61 1/3 IP for Triple-A Richmond

0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 1/1 K/BB in 2 IP for Atlanta

The A's picked up two more potential No. 3 starters to go along with Joe Blanton in the Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson trades. Dan Haren lost his rookie eligibility back in 2003, but Meyer qualifies for the list. The left-hander has posted sub-3.00 ERAs at five levels since being drafted 34th overall in 2002 (10 spots after Blanton and 18 after Swisher). Meyer throws 89-92 mph and uses a plus slider. His changeup remains a work in progress, and since his peripherals weren't nearly as impressive after he was moved up to Richmond last year, he likely could use a couple of more months in Triple-A. The A's will let him compete with import Keiichi Yabu and non-roster invitee Seth Etherton for a rotation spot.

5. Huston Street - RHP - Age 21 - ETA: June 2005

0-1, 4 Sv, 1.69 ERA, 9 H, 14/5 K/BB in 10 2/3 IP for low Single-A Kane County

1-0, 3 Sv, 1.35 ERA, 10 H, 14/3 K/BB in 13 1/3 IP for Double-A Midland

0-0, 1 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 2/0 K/BB in 2 IP for Triple-A Sacramento

1-0, 7 Sv, 0.98 ERA, 11 H, 19/2 K/BB in 18 1/3 IP for Phoenix (AFL)

The third of Oakland's four first-round picks in 2004, Street would hold the title of baseball's best relief prospect if only the Twins had called up Jesse Crain a couple of weeks earlier last year. The University of Texas product doesn't quite have Crain's raw stuff, but his command of a low-90s fastball and a quality slider should make him a top setup man or a closer. It doesn't appear that there will be room for him in the Oakland pen at the start of the year, but he will make an impact over the final three or four months.

6. Dan Johnson - 1B - Age 25 - ETA: April 2006

.299/.403/.534, 29 HR, 111 RBI, 93/89 K/BB, 0 SB in 536 AB for Triple-A Sacramento

Although he has little left to prove, Johnson apparently is again bound for Sacramento after the A's made the rather surprising decision to keep Erubiel Durazo as their DH. Jettisoning Scott Hatteberg was a less likely possibility that never materialized. Johnson is below average at first base, but he's hardly so bad that he absolutely has to DH. He also spent a little time in left field in Mexico this winter, though he's nothing more than an emergency option there. A very consistent offensive force in the minors, Johnson has earned his opportunity. He should spend a half dozen seasons as a quality regular capable of hitting .280 with a .360 OBP and 25-30 homers per year.

7. Omar Quintanilla - SS - Age 23 - ETA: April 2006

.314/.370/.480, 11 HR, 72 RBI, 54/37 K/BB, 1 SB in 452 AB for Single-A Modesto

.351/.419/.521, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 9/10 K/BB, 2 SB in 94 AB for Double-A Midland

.374/.404/.527, 0 HR, 18 RBI, 5/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 91 AB for Phoenix (AFL)

A teammate of Street's at Texas, Quintanilla was the 33rd overall pick in the 2003 draft. The left-handed hitter has hit .329 since being drafted and shows 12-homer power. Add in the 50 walks per year and he's practically a clone of Todd Walker. A shortstop up until this point of his career, he's expected to move to second base if he stays with the A's. He's capable of being an above average defender at that position, so his future appears bright. One more year in the minors might be enough.

8. Javier Herrera - OF - Age 19 - ETA: 2009

.331/.392/.555, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 59/24 K/BB, 23 SB in 263 AB for SS Single-A Vancouver

Herrera is probably the best athlete in the system and he's developing as a player much more quickly than expected, allowing him to take home Northwest League MVP honors last year. He figures to show 30-homer power as he matures and he's fast enough to cover center field, so if he learns not to chase breaking balls outside the strike zone, the sky will be the limit.

9. Jairo Garcia - RHP - Age 22 - ETA: Aug. 2005

1-0, 16 Sv, 0.30 ERA, 16 H, 49/6 K/BB in 30 IP for low Single-A Kane County

2-0, 2 Sv, 1.50 ERA, 10 H, 32/15 K/BB in 18 IP for Double-A Midland

1-2, 1 Sv, 3.95 ERA, 10 H, 21/9 K/BB in 13 2/3 IP for Triple-A Sacramento

0-0, 0 Sv, 12.71 ERA, 5 H, 5/9 K/BB in 5 2/3 IP for Oakland

It turned out that Garcia wasn't ready to help the A's last year, but his star hasn't dimmed. He just needs to do a better job of throwing strikes. Garcia features a 95-mph fastball, a slider and a splitter. The three-pitch arsenal gives him more upside than Street, though he may never have the command to be a truly great reliever. With Street now ahead of him, Garcia isn't likely to get another opportunity to pitch in the majors until after the All-Star break or maybe September.

10. Brian Snyder - 3B - Age 23 - ETA: 2007

.311/.421/.484, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 82/67 K/BB, 3 SB in 366 AB for low Single-A Kane County

Edging Brad Knox and Richie Robnett. Like Barton, Snyder put up some very nice numbers in the Midwest League last season. The problem was that he is 3 ½ years Barton's senior. Snyder turns 23 in March, so he needs to be challenged with Double-A. The 2003 first-round pick could be capable of making the same time of leap that Mark Teahen did last year. He's already a solid defender with on-base skills, and the A's are optimistic he'll add more power. He could be an average regular.

2004 top 10: Bobby Crosby, Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher, Brad Sullivan, Jeremy Brown, Mike Wood, Freddie Bynum, Dan Johnson, John Rheinecker, Mike Rouse

2003 top 10: Rich Harden, Bobby Crosby, John-Ford Griffin, Mike Wood, Adam Morrissey, Esteban German, John Rheinecker, Freddie Bynum, Jeremy Brown, Jason Grabowski

Meeting Michael Lewis

bigthree17 — Thu, 27 Jan 2005 04:58:55 -0000

[EDITOR'S NOTE] This is an excellent update from AN reader bigthree17. I want to thank bigthree17 for this report, and that this reminds me that it's probably time for me to check back in with Mr. Lewis on Underdogs. - Blez

Today I got to meet and spend some time with Michael Lewis. He was the keynote speaker at a seminar my old law firm organized and invited me to. I sat with him at lunch, and then hung out with him after the seminar for about an hour. He is a great guy.

Keep in mind that there were 5-6 of us at the table with him, so I wasn't able to ask every question I wanted, and those I did were often cut off by other people. Anyway, here are a few highlights from our conversation:

Michael has become great friends with Billy since the book was published; not as much during the writing of it. They speak on an almost daily basis now.
The sale is pretty much a done deal. Billy is currently negotiating with the new ownership group to stay. Among his chief concerns is that he wants complete autonomy of baseball decisions; this is more important to him than the money. Michael believes the new ownership group will do what it has to to keep Billy.
Now that most teams have caught onto OPS, a lot of people think defense is the next stage of "Moneyball". That's only part of it: the A's and Red Sox, for example, have already developed their theories about defense. They've already moved on and are now analyzing inefficiencies elsewhere.
Chavez was signed long-term because he showed constant and continued improvement, and the A's were able to buy out his prime years at a discount, because his defense was still undervalued. They weren't as sure about Miggy, for several reasons.
He loves the trades Billy made this summer. When I asked him if he thought it would have been a better route to trade some of our prospects over the last couple of years for established players (with other teams paying the freight) to make a real run with the Big Three, and then either take the picks when those guys become free agents or trade them in their walk years, he said no. The reason being is that wins are the most important thing for the health of the franchise, and this franchise could not afford to deal with the 3-4 years of rebuilding that would have necessitated.
Daric Barton is viewed as the prime piece in the deals.
The A's actually used to purposely use their 2nd or 3rd best reliever as the closer, let him rack up a ton of saves, raise his market value, then deal him because "saves" were so overvalued. I'm sure this is what they hoped to do with Rhodes, but he couldn't hold up his end of the bargain.
The average casual fan that visits certain blog fan sites with even a modicum of intelligence has a better grasp of statistical analysis than most sportswriters. This goes along with what Billy said in the interview Blez just posted.
There was a lot of other stuff we talked about, I just can't remember it all. Frankly, I wish I could be more specific and tell you more, but there was a lot we discussed that I probably shouldn't repeat.

Anyway, it's nothing compared to Blez' interview, but just thought I'd share with you guys.

Thank You, Drummer Guys

bigthree17 — Sun, 03 Oct 2004 04:05:40 -0000

It was awesome to have you (or at least some of you) back for these last couple of games, even with the ugly results. You guys bring a ton of life to the games, and I've really missed hearing the drums.