Our friends at ESPN have picked the Lions to finish last in the division again, see their preview page for the Lions here:  http://espn.go.com/nfl/preview10/team/_/name/det.  I find it hard to believe that they keep John Clayton around, he who ranks Jay Cutler as the #15 QB in the league, and Matthew Stafford at #27.  Cutler led the league in INTs last year, and playing in a Mike Martz offense this year, he could easily exceed his INT total of 26 from last year.  Clayton comments that the Lions will have the 2nd most improved offense in the division behind the Bears.  What Bears team has he been watching in pre-season?

The Lions will continue to receive negative press in the major outlets until they start winning games in the regular season.

In 2009 the Lions introduced Matthew Stafford as their new quarterback, the top overall draft pick in the NFL and the latest “savior” of the moribund franchise. Coming off the first 0-16 record in NFL history, and with a new coaching staff installed, the selection of Stafford was a bold move by new GM Martin Mayhew.  Passing on a potential star LB and several talented OT prospects, many Lions fans were convinced that the Lions had again made the wrong choice, and their record of futility would continue.  But to others, the selection of Stafford was a signal that the dearth of talent at the most important position on the team was finally coming to an end.

Stafford endured a painful but promising rookie season, winning 2 of his 10 starts, while demonstrating both outstanding talent as a passer and the determination and grit of a champion.  Surrounded by perhaps the worst roster in the NFL, and protected by one of the most porous offensive lines in the league, the cards were clearly stacked against Stafford in his rookie campaign.  His stats for the year were typical of a rookie QB on a bad team…13 TDs and 20 INTs, a 61 QB rating, 11.3 yards/catch average and 24 sacks.

We often hear the statement from people in the media (and around the NFL) that a player makes his biggest jump in performance between his rookie and 2nd year.  So it’s tempting to consider in this off season what we might expect from 2nd year QB Matthew Stafford.  Using history as a guide, what could we anticipate for Stafford in the 2010 season?

To begin, we need to consider the circumstances surrounding Stafford’s arrival with the Lions. Prior to the 2009 draft, the Lions made history with their 0-16 record, and head coach Rod Marinelli was fired.  A new coaching staff featuring Jim Schwartz was brought in to right the ship.  Stafford started the majority of his rookie year.  To evaluate comparable quarterbacks, we’ll look at several with a similar history - the year prior to their arrival their teams were awful, and they began their careers with new coaching staffs.  Again for sake of comparison we will consider rookie quarterbacks who were drafted in the first round (ideally near the top of the round) and started the majority of their rookie season.  And one other key point of comparison – Stafford went to work with the Lions at the tender young age of 21.  We’ll thus attempt to compare him with quarterbacks who were relatively young at the start of their careers.

With help from ProFootballReference.com, a few rookie NFL quarterbacks can be identified that meet the above criteria.  Lousy previous season record, new head coach, among the top picks in the 1st round, rookie starter for a good part of the year, and relatively young when they arrived in the NFL.  The list includes some household names:  Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Donovan McNabb and Troy Aikman.  First we’ll look at a brief summary of how this group fit our requirements.

Peyton Manning began his career with the Colts in 1998, along with new head coach Jim Mora.  In 1997 the Colts had finished last in their division with a 3-12 record.  The first pick in the 1998 draft, Manning started his entire rookie season.  At the start of that season Manning was a baby-faced 22.

Drew Bledsoe arrived with the Patriots in 1993, joining first-year head coach Bill Parcells.  His new team had just completed a 2-14 season that ended with the firing of coach Dick MacPherson.   Like Peyton Manning, Bledsoe was the first overall pick in his draft year.  In his rookie season, Bledsoe started 12 of the 16 games for the Patriots. Like our boy Stafford, Bledsoe began the season at the age of 21.

Donovan McNabb joined the Eagles in 1999, the same year head coach Andy Reid arrived in Philly.  Previous head coach Ray Rhodes had suffered through a 3-13 season before being dismissed.  McNabb was the 2nd pick in his draft class, but was brought along more slowly than the others in our study.  Doug Pederson was the starting QB at the start of the Eagles 1999 season.  McNabb played in 12 games as a 23 year old rookie, starting 6 of those contests.

Troy Aikman arrived in Dallas in 1989 shortly after Jimmy Johnson was named the new head coach, following the final season of coaching legend Tom Landry.  The Cowboys had fallen on hard times in Landry’s last campaign, finishing with a 3-13 record, last in the division.  Golden boy Troy was the top selection in the 1989 NFL draft, and quickly became the starter in Dallas, playing in 11 games as a 23 year old rookie.

So how did these young guns fare in their first season, with bad teams and new coaching staffs?  Our quartet of future stars combined for a record of 10-35, or a .220 record, only marginally better than Stafford’s 2-8, .200 start.  As a group their passing stats were ugly too, with a combined 801 completions on 1513 attempts, for a completion percentage of 52.9%.  Stafford, in spite of his horrible offensive line and weak receiving corps, completed 201 passes on 377 attempts, for an eerily similar 53.2%.  The average passing yards of our fab four was 2232, again incredibly similar to Stafford’s 2267 total for the year.  Looking at touchdowns and interceptions, the four young guns averaged 14.5 touchdowns and 17 picks.  Stafford’s record here was slightly worse, at 13 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. A summary of the results for the young quarterbacks is presented below.  Matthew Stafford’s rookie stats mirror the average of the quartet in our study.

Rookie season statistics

Now let’s see what our four young guns did in their second year in the NFL.  We’ll also project based on the average of the four what we might expect from Matthew Stafford in year #2.

In year #2 our four young quarterbacks increased their win total from an average of 2.2 to an average of 10.25, with a corresponding decrease in losses from 8.75 to 5.5.  Said differently, on average this quartet of young quarterbacks went from cellar dwellers the first year in their respective divisions to challenging for playoff berths in the second.  In fact, three of our four young studs reached the playoffs in only their 2nd year, with the fourth (Aikman) reaching the playoffs in his 3rd year. 

Completion percentage for the quartet increased from 52.9% to 58.71%, and touchdowns increased from an average of 14.5 to almost 21.  As a group, the number of interceptions increased slightly, but the interception rate per attempt dropped significantly.  In virtually every category, these young quarterbacks saw a dramatic improvement in their performance from their rookie seasons to their 2nd year in the NFL.

2nd year statistics

For Matthew Stafford, we might expect the climb to be somewhat more difficult.  Starting his career with the worst team in history, the Lions had arguably more to fix.  Yet Stafford performed at roughly the same level as our four future stars in his rookie campaign.  With excellent off-season improvements to the Lions skill positions and a bolstering of the offensive line, Stafford could see his performance improve as much as our four future stars.  But let’s be conservative.  In his rookie year, Stafford’s attempts and completions were almost identical to the average of the four young guns.  In year #2, we’ll assume a slightly improved Lions rushing attack, resulting in a lower number of attempts than the average of our young quarterback quartet.  Given the improvement in the receiving corps, we’ll project Stafford to have a slightly higher completion rate than his counterparts in year #2.  At 530 attempts and 330 completions, that results in a completion percentage of 62.2%, and projected passing yards of 3729, assuming no improvement in Stafford’s rookie season yards/catch average of 11.3.   That’s an improvement of over 1,000 yards passing, and nearly 9% higher completion percentage.   Assuming just a small increase in touchdown percentage from 3.4% to 3.6%, Stafford projects to throw a total of 19 touchdowns.

Projected 2nd year statistics

Using history as our guide, and the help of statistics from four quarterbacks with experience and team history like that of the Lions, it’s not absurd to think Matthew Stafford could bring the Lions their first winning season since the dark days of Millen began.  But more likely Matt will have the kind of 2nd year that Troy Aikman experienced, with growth in all phases of the game but not quite enough going right this to make the playoffs.  Stafford’s first year was consistent with the quartet of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.  With the kind of growth in the 2nd year that can easily be projected for him, it’s not a stretch to think that Matthew Stafford could lead your Detroit Lions to the playoffs by 2011, and potentially for many years to follow.   Move over Bobby Layne, there’s (finally) a new sheriff in town.