SB Nation User Blog: billyzane

Stoops Pretty Much Just Throwing Players Under the Bus Now

billyzane — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:24:45 -0000

Stoops Pretty Much Just Throwing Players Under the Bus Now

It's not Stoops' fault the team sucks this year! It's the players' fault for sucking at football! In seriousness and fairness, Stoops is technically correct in the sense that, to a certain extent, he can only do so much and the rest is on the players to execute. But should he be making that point to the media? Uh, probably not if he wants to recruit well ever again.

Put that alongside his treatment of Bradford in the past year and the fact that he has both no chin and a double chin at the same time as reasons not to trust old Stoopsie.

Seriously, it's reaching an Aggie-level meltdown in Norman (and ironically enough, an Aggie win over OU might send it over the edge). It's becoming very entertaining.

Texas #2 in the BCS: A Quick Look

billyzane — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:57:08 -0000

The BCS standings just came out and, ooh looky there, Texas is now #2. It's still early and I think the majority of us are largely unconcerned with the exact placement of Texas in the rankings because it seems pretty clear that Texas just has to win out and they'll be heading to Pasadena. But for those of you still scared about Iowa, this should do quite a lot to alleviate those fears. Why? Take a look at the chart below:

How BCS Components Rank Texas
POLL	TEXAS LAST WEEK	TEXAS THIS WEEK	TEX DELTA	IOWA DELTA	FLA DELTA	ALA DELTA
BCS Total	.8927 (#3)	.9227 (#2)	+.0300	+.0158	+.0192	-.0284
USA Today Coaches	.9424 (#3)	.9458 (#2)	+.0034	+.0508	+.0027	-.0061
Harris	.9458 (#3)	.9523 (#2)	+.0065	+.0367	+.0047	-.0009
Computers Poll	.7900 (#5)	.8700 (#3t)	+.0800	-.0400	+.0500	-.0700
AH	#5	#4	+1 spot	-1 spot	+1 spot	same
RB	#3	#2	+1 spot	same	+1 spot	-2 spots
CM	#4	#3	+1 spot	-1 spot	+2 spots	-2 spots
KM	#10	#6	+4 spots	-1 spot	+2 spots	-2 spots
JS	#14	#9	+5 spots	-1 spot	+1 spot	-4 spots
PW	#6	#4	+2 spots	same	same	-3 spots

Follow me through the jump for some analysis of the numbers.

First, while Texas did become #2 in both human polls, the jumps were very minor, point-wise. We moved up in ranking because we were so close to Alabama last week and we gained just enough points in each human poll that we overtook the Tide, but only by about as much as they led us by last week. The real jump came in the computers, where we improved our score 8 times more than in both human polls combined. As predicted last week, we jumped TCU (and, not as predicted, tied Alabama) and Florida overtook Iowa. This lines up with the theory that Iowa had nowhere to go but down in the computers and Texas had nowhere to go but up. I'm surprised that it happened this quickly, but it was certainly bound to happen. The reason the computer points fluctuate to a much greater degree than the human ones is that humans have largely made up their minds by this point (unfortunately for the system as a whole) while computers are incapable of having their minds made up about anything. To put it another way, while humans pollsters often use continuing results to confirm their existing rankings, computers constantly take in the data provided by continuing results and refine their rankings. As we get closer to the end of the season, the computers will have enough data to have relatively stable rankings and the large week-to-week changes won't be as common. Good thing we're moving up now.

Now, conversely, I did say last week that Iowa had a lot of room to move up in the human polls while Texas didn't have much room to do the same. But you'll note that, even though a team ranked ahead of Iowa lost (USC), Texas still moved up about the same amount in the computers as Iowa did in the human polls (mostly because humans have the ability to see and comprehend just how terribly Iowa plays in each and every football game), while Iowa moved down quite a bit in the computers. Thus, you'll also note, Texas' BCS score as a whole increased by nearly twice the amount that Iowa's score increased. We're tied for #3 in the computers with Iowa as #2, and there is no possibility that Iowa will pass us in the human polls. Anyone still legitimately worried that the Hawkeyes will overtake us even if they somehow manage to escape the Horseshoe alive? Me neither.

Now, this is fun and all, but what does this ranking means for Texas this week? Absolutely nothing. Whether we're currently #1, #2, #3, or #4, I don't care. The only BCS rankings that matter are the ones that come out after the conference championship games and if we take care of business between now and then, we will be #1 or #2. We can just think about football now. Thankfully.

Here's the ABC coverage map for the 8pm game tomorrow night. As noted on the map itself, if you...

billyzane — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:59:02 -0000

Here's the ABC coverage map for the 8pm game tomorrow night. As noted on the map itself, if you are getting the Oregon/USC matchup on ABC, the Texas/OSU game will be broadcast on ESPN2 in your area. Which totally sucks if you live in Maine and don't have cable.

Phenomenal Chuck Klosterman Essay on Football

billyzane — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:47:05 -0000

Phenomenal Chuck Klosterman Essay on Football

It's an excerpt from his latest book, Eating the Dinosaur. And it's pretty freaking awesome.

The BCS Numbers Game Rises From the Dead

billyzane — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 19:50:40 -0000

As most of you probably remember, last year I did a "Numbers Game" column that just devolved towards the end of the season into a BCS numbers analysis trying to figure out how Texas might be able to make the Big 12 Championship game and the National Championship game. That was fun. I thought I wouldn't have to do one of those again with the whole "win and you're in" mantra, but with everyone starting to worry about Iowa creeping up and dominating the computers, I thought I'd take a look at the numbers and the various scenarios and try to nip the widespread panic in the bud. Click through the jump to get a painful reminder of last years heartbreak!

From one of last year's posts:

An Explanatory Prelude That Seems Simple But is Oh So Important: It's important to realize that rankings in the BCS component polls (Harris, Coaches and Computers) mean very little. It's the scores that establish those rankings that matter, not the rankings themselves. In the Harris Poll, there are 114 voters, and for every #1 ranking a team gets 25 points, for every #2 ranking, a team gets 24 points, and so on. Thus the greatest number of points a team can get if it gets all 114 first place votes is 2,850, which is 25 times 114. Alabama has 2,808 out of a possible 2,850, which gives them their Harris poll score of .9853 (which is 2808 divided by 2850). If Alabama had, say, only 2770 points out of 2850, they would still be ranked #1, but their Harris Poll score for BCS purposes would only be .9719, significantly lower than it is now. Thus rank doesn't matter, only points.

And because of that, you can have a "strong" ranking or a "weak" ranking. Therefore, if the #4 team is just 1 point behind the #3 team in the Harris poll (thus #3 is weak and #4 is strong), and then if the #4 team then passes the #3 team the next week and now leads by 1 point, that means virtually nothing for the BCS because even though the rankings changed, the points stayed almost exactly the same. It's not absolute rankings that matter, it's the points.

That being established, let's take a look at the Harris and Coaches Polls, points-wise:

Note: just as happened last year, 1 Harris Poll voter occasionally decides not to vote, which no doubt inspires much confidence in the poll as a whole, so we only have 113 votes this week rather than 114. The expected points were adjusted accordingly.

Harris Poll
Expected Pts	Actual Pts	% of Expected	Team
2825	2765	-60	Florida
2712	2674	-36	Alabama
2599	2672	+73	Texas
2486	2316	-170	USC
2373	2273	-100	Boise St.
2260	2224	-36	Cincy
2147	2119	-28	TCU
2034	2086	+52	Iowa

USA Today Coaches Poll
Expected Pts	Actual Pts	% of Expected	Team
1475	1459	-16	Florida
1416	1399	-17	Alabama
1357	1390	+33	Texas
1298	1244	-54	USC
1239	1152	-87	Boise St.
1180	1131	-49	TCU
1121	1126	+5	Cincy
1062	1086	+24	Iowa

Computers Poll
A&H	Billingsley	Colley	Massey	Sagarin	Wolfe	Average	Diff. from Expected	Team
25	22	25	25	25	25	1.000	--	Iowa
24	24	23	23	24	24	.950	-.010	Florida
23	25	24	24	23	23	.940	+.020	Alabama
22	21	21	21	18	22	.850	-.030	TCU
21	23	22	16	12	20	.790	-.050	Texas
20	18	19	18	20	21	.770	-.030	Cincinnati*
17	17	20	22	21	19	.770	-.030	Oregon*
16	20	15	20	22	18	.740	+.020	Boise St.
18	16	18	19	19	17	.720	+.040	USC

*Because Cincinnati and Oregon are in a tie for 6th place, both of their "expecteds" are the equivalent of a 6th place ranking while BSU's "expected" is for an 8th-ranked team and USC's is for a 9th-ranked team.

Fact 1 is heartening for now: Iowa is ranked #8 in both human polls. That is absurdly low for an undefeated team from the Big 10 and likely has to do with a combination of poor preseason expectations, pollster inertia, and terrible on-the-field play that has miraculously not lost them a game yet. If computers were allowed to take into margin of victory (up to a certain amount), then I would venture to say that Iowa would not be ranked #1 in that facet of the BCS.

Fact 2 is a side effect of Fact 1 but is in fact disheartening: Iowa has a lot of room to move up in the human polls and gain points in the BCS relative to Texas. Iowa has been completely unimpressive thus far, but has a chance the rest of the season to turn it on. And if they beat Ohio State in Columbus, human voters will likely move them up ahead of Boise State, Cincinnati, TCU and perhaps USC (all of these teams are quite weak for their positions in the rankings, while Iowa is high for its rankings; to me this means that there is a lot of confusion about how to rank these teams and voters looking for someone to put at the high end of this group might find something they like in an undefeated Big 10 team). If that happens it's a very large jump that would make up a lot of the gap that currently exists between Texas and the Hawkeyes in the BCS standings. However, it must also be noted that a 1-loss Alabama or Florida may still be ranked ahead of Iowa (or, if not, will certainly be ranked ahead of them by some voters, taking away points from the Hawkeyes), but virtually no one will rank a 1-loss SEC team ahead of Texas.

Fact 3 gives some hope to those scared of Fact 2: While Texas, unlike Iowa, has very little room to move up because we are already a high #3, virtually identical to low #2 Alabama, the top 3 are essentially a consensus, with any vote shifts occurring by movement almost entirely within the top 3. This benefits Texas somewhat because it prevents teams from outside of the top 3 from breaking into the top 3 and it is a result of voters being willing to shift their votes around between the top 3. That is, the inertia exists as to the top 3 versus everyone else, rather than as #1 versus #2 and #2 versus #3. Because Texas is lowest on the Top-3 totem pole, this gives us some room for potential upward movement without much room for downward movement.

Fact 4 is the inverse of Fact 2: Texas is ranked so low by the computers and Iowa is ranked so high, that the difference between them cannot get any greater and will almost definitely get closer at the season goes on. For one thing, Texas' schedule should improve as we play 6-1 Oklahoma State this weekend and OU looks to continue winning as well. Perhaps more importantly, the SEC teams will overtake Iowa in the computers even if Texas cannot, meaning that Iowa's relative advantage over Texas will likely decrease. And, even if Iowa does stay #1, when one of the SEC teams loses, Texas will move up, decreasing Iowa's relative advantage over Texas.

Fact 5 gives you a worst case scenario and a reason to ignore it (both of which are actually opinions and not facts): With respect to Iowa, the worst thing that can happen to an undefeated Texas team is Texas ranked a solid #2 in both human polls, Iowa ranked a solid #3, Iowa as a unanimous #1 in the computer polls and Texas as a solid #3. In that absolute worst-case scenario, Texas would be tied with Iowa in the BCS and it would be a tossup based on a few points here and there. Which is cause for a little bit of worry. But of course that's not going happen. Texas will likely get a few #1 votes in addition to the SEC champion and will get virtually no votes lower than #2. Iowa will get virtually no votes higher than #3, but will get plenty of votes lower than #3 as voters try to figure out what to do with USC, the 1-loss SEC runner-up, Boise State, TCU, Cincinnati. It's virtually assured that Texas will be at least a solid #2, and that Iowa will be something less than a solid #3. I mean, they're currently ranked #8! They'd have to jump 4 teams who may not lose the rest of the season PLUS a 1-loss Florida/Alabama. As far as the computers go, Iowa got lucky (strength of schedule-wise) that they don't have to play bottom-dwellers Purdue and Illinois this year (though their OOC foe Iowa State does look to be poised to lose 3 more games, while Arizona still has to play Cal, Oregon, USC and ASU). Regardless, Iowa will almost certainly not be a consensus #1 in the computers at the end of the season. Whichever SEC team wins the conference will (if undefeated) take at least some of the #1 rankings, making Iowa at best a weak #1, if not #2. Texas, on the other hand will likely pass TCU (whose schedule gets much easier) and whichever SEC team loses. They may get some competition for points from a 1-loss team, but will likely reach a reasonably solid #3 in the computers. Essentially, it's called a worst-case scenario for a reason. Everything would have to go wrong for Iowa to come close to even tying Texas in the BCS. If one thing doesn't go wrong, Iowa can't catch us. I like the odds.

Fact 6 is a truism as old as time (or at least as old as the Warren G. Harding administration): Iowa always loses. They haven't finished a regular season undefeated since 1922 (the height of the teapot dome scandal!). They needed two blocked field goals in the last 5 seconds to beat D-1AA Northern Iowa by one point at home. They needed to recover an onside kick in the 4th quarter to hold on to a 3-point victory over Arkansas State at home. As a point of reference, ASU is 2-4, with its only victories being against a 1-AA team and Florida International, which itself is 1-6, with their only victory coming against 0-7 Western Kentucky. Iowa Hawkeye football: feel the excitement! The point is not to just denigrate Iowa's football team (though it's no doubt fun, the voters have done that enough by voting an undefeated Big 10 team #8 this late in the season...), but rather to say that it's not worth worrying about yet. If Iowa beats Ohio State in the Horseshoe, then we can talk again. But even if that happens, I still wouldn't be too worried.

[As an aside to you Pundit Roundup fans, apologies for my absence the last few weeks. Many reasons, most of them uninteresting. It'll be back this week sometime.]

Sam Bradford plans to enter NFL draft after surgery

billyzane — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 22:29:26 -0000

Sam Bradford plans to enter NFL draft after surgery

Not a surprise at this point, but it's pretty much confirmed now. It sucks for him to have a wasted year like this, so I'm sure the temptation to stay another to make up for it was great, but I think most would agree that he's making the right decision. In retrospect, he's making it a year too late, but hindsight's 20-20. Can't blame him for wanting to play ball for his childhood team and win a national championship. Best of luck to you in the NFL, Sam.

Second Half Open Thread: Texas at Missouri

billyzane — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 01:28:21 -0000

Let us always speak again about what just transpired.

Rick Reilly Arrives 4 Years Late to Write 800 Words About Colt

billyzane — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 17:14:20 -0000

Rick Reilly Arrives 4 Years Late to Write 800 Words About Colt

Oh Rick Reilly, you homespun rapscallion and master of dental analogies. You heard about this mysterious "Colt McCoy" figure down in Austin, Texas and just had to take a flight down to Texas to be the first to get the scoop on this character. Plus, as you no doubt know, they have great golf courses down there. So you make the trip, talk to McCoy for 5-10 minutes, ask him the same questions everyone else asked 1-3 years ago, but put a super-duper cutesy spin on it, and PRESTO. Time to hit the links. Job well done, chap.

Seriously though, on the whole the article is well-written; Reilly's never had that problem, though he uses his talent as a crutch, it seems. Anyway, there is one interesting part of this article when it becomes apparent that Colt flat out doesn't like Tim Tebow or all the attention he gets. SCANDAL!

Race for the Roses October 5

billyzane — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:31:08 -0000

by Matt Cilley - AP

Chris Petersen just saw this week's polls.

View full size photo »

I'm filling in for AW this week, writing his normal column, Race for the National Championship Game that Will be Played in the Rose Bowl Several Days After the Rose Bowl but is Technically Not Actually the Rose Bowl. (Happy, burntorangehorn?) This past week didn't quite have the same earth shattering unbeaten losses that last week did, but our understanding of how good certain teams actually are have become clearer. For instance, Let's wave goodbye to the following teams:

(1) Oklahoma. They're just not very good. The Sooner O-line is bad and it scares the hell out of Bob Stoops and Kevin Wilson (public proclamations notwithstanding) so the offensive playcalling is incredibly conservative (3rd down and long? DRAW PLAY!). The wailing about Kevin Wilson by Sooner fans this morning rivals that of Texas fans with Greg Davis. (Well, with the exception of the fact that OU doesn't have the #1 Scoring Offense in the nation.) The OU defense? Apparently a little overrated. They came out playing Miami well (keep safeties deep and corners off to guard against the NFL-style deep ball) and it got them 2 quick interceptions. But when Miami adjusted and started passing underneath, Brent Venables took forever to adjust back. A couple of broken coverages and wide open running lanes later, Miami had scored 21 points. Classic Venables.

(2) Houston. Um, what the hell just happened in El Paso? A post-Tech hangover was certainly in order for a group of players that had never experienced this success before, but giving up 58 points to a team that gained a total of 53 yards last week? Welcome back to obscurity, Coogs.

One more surprise farewell after the jump, plus a look at the top contenders.

(3) Boise State? Yes, Boise State. Sort of. They're not completely out of it, certainly. But with today's AP and Coaches Polls, we have a template for how voters will deal with undefeated Boise State the rest of the season. In case you missed it, #5 Boise State played a closer than expected home game against 1AA team UC Davis (leading 13-0 at halftime, winning 34-16), and was jumped in both the AP and Coaches Polls by Virginia Tech, which itself had a ridiculously tough time beating Duke (the Harris Poll left BSU at #5, but its lead over #6 VT shrank significantly). It seems to me that neither team did anything worthwhile this week, but after a full week of looking at that number 5 by BSU's name, voters got jumpy and moved the Broncos down on their ballots. It's one thing to put BSU in the top 10 so they can make the BCS. It's quite another to realize that they're a Texas loss away from being in line for the national championship game. It's not fair, but Boise State is not going to be in the national championship game unless everyone has 2 losses. Sorry Broncos.

The Favorites:

1. Florida (4-0): The Gators had a bye this week, but no one got a bye from talking about Tim Tebow's concussion. That concussion hangs over Florida's season. By all accounts, Brantley is playing well in practice, but a night game in Death Valley isn't exactly practice. If Tebow doesn't play next week (and his health, not the opponent, is the only thing that should determine that), Florida might be in some trouble.

Next Games: 10/10 at LSU, 10/17 Arkansas, 10/24 at Mississippi St.

2. Texas (4-0): So I don't know what the deal with UTEP is, but that win all of a sudden looks a lot better than it did last week. And it looked good last week. UTEP quit a little bit against Texas, but a team that can run up 581 yards against the #12 team in the country has something going for it. Texas plays tomato can Colorado this week, followed by a newly humbled OU team whose goal has changed from the national championship to beating Texas and winning the Big 12. I'm worried about OU coming out exceptionally motivated in Dallas. On the other hand, they also seem to be getting emotionally weaker with every single injury they suffer. They just don't seem like they believe in themselves anymore. But for Texas, the only thing that matters is winning.

Next Games: 10/10 Colorado, 10/17 OU (Dallas), 10/24 at Missouri

3. Alabama (5-0): Bama looks good, no two ways about it. They started off slowly against Kentucky, with Greg McElroy looking like a typical SEC quarterback. But he got out of his funk and played well. Shocking that when SEC teams have good quarterbacks and/or offensive coordinators, you can actually score points on SEC defenses. Regardless, if Florida can escape LSU next week, I think it comes down to the SEC Championship game between undefeated Florida and Alabama.

Next Games: 10/10 at Mississippi, 10/17 South Carolina, 10/24 Tennessee

The Contenders:

1. LSU (5-0): I feel like I can just write the exact same thing AW wrote last week. Yes, LSU controls its own destiny. But does anyone think that they're really that good? It took a phantom unsportsmanlike penalty and incredibly shoddy Georgia tackling to beat the Dawgs. The week before, they almost lost to Mississippi State. Three weeks before that, they had an exceptionally tough time with Washington. That said, they're a different team at home and the three games listed above were all on the road. Florida (with or without Tebow) will have a tough time in Death Valley (especially at night, when the bayou folk get good and liquored up), and if LSU beats the Gators, they've got Auburn and Arkansas at home as well, but have to travel to Alabama and Ole Miss. Anyone watching them so far this season want to bet on them navigating that unscathed? If so, do you remember that Les Miles is their coach? There it is.

Next Games: 10/10 Florida, 10/17 Bye, 10/24 Auburn

2. Virginia Tech (4-1): That loss to Alabama (34-24) is looking quite forgivable at this point, and that destruction of Miami looks even better. If the Hokies get past BC and GT the next 2 weeks, they should win out and might be in position to be the top 1-loss team. Then again, they only beat Duke by 8, so maybe this is all a bit premature. Their ascent to the top 5 probably had more to do with voters intent on dropping Boise State rather than elevating VaTech, so they may themselves get jumped in the near future.

Next Games: 10/10 Boston College, 10/17 @ Georgia Tech, 10/29 North Carolina

Need Help:

1. USC (4-1): Well, so much for Cal. The fighting Tedfords do what the Fighting Tedfords always do, which is fold under the weight of great expectations. Also, they lose to USC. The Trojans demolished Cal a week after Oregon did the same, once again making the Trojans look like the team to beat in the Pac10. If they beat Notre Dame in two weeks, look for USC to jump Boise State. They still need some help, but beating a resurgent Oregon team should help their cause.

Next Games: 10/10 Bye, 10/17 @ Notre Dame, 10/24 Oregon State

2. Cincinnati (5-0): Um, would we put in a once-defeated team over an undefeated BCS Conference champion that scheduled two other BCS conference teams for its out of conference schedule? That's a question that we may be facing later this year if Texas and an SEC team don't go undefeated. Cincinnati is in the Big East, is undefeated, and plays the following teams the rest of this year: South Florida (the only good team left on the schedule), Louisville, Syracuse, Connecticut, West Virginia, Illinois and Pittsburgh. Yikes. We'll see how things go. I'm not optimistic for the Bearcats' national championship chances.

Next Games: 10/10 at South Florida, 10/17 Louisville, 10/24 at Syracuse

Knocking on the Door:

1. Miami: But their schedule the rest of the way is incredibly weak and those wins over FSU and Georgia Tech don't look that impressive anymore.

2. Iowa: They're undefeated, but no one takes them seriously. Including me. They'll lose to someone. They're Iowa.

3. Oregon: Huge turnaround after the Boise State game and the Ducks look good. A win over USC gets the Ducks back in the conversation. But would voters ever put a 1-loss Oregon ahead of an undefeated team that already beat Oregon? Might be too much cognitive dissonance, even for the pollsters.

4. TCU: Unfortunate position of being ranked after BSU and Cincinnati. If one of those two stays undefeated, no chance for TCU.

5. Ohio State: Please God, no.

Saturday Night Games Open Thread

billyzane — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:28:01 -0000

Here's a list of the games you might be interested in watching tonight. I'll be watching OU/Miami with PiP on A&M/Arkansas and my laptop showing USC/Cal on channelsurfing.net. May flip to Auburn/Tennessee periodically to keep tabs. What are you watching?

All Times Central

TIME	GAME	TV	LINE
6:30	Texas A&M at Arkansas (Arlington)		Ark -1.5
6:45	Auburn at Tennessee		Tenn -2.5
7:00	USC at Cal*		USC -4.5
7:00	Oklahoma at Miami*		OU -7

*ABC Regional Coverage Map

And if you're interested, SBNation.com is going to have game-specific and general live blogging going on here. Spencer Hall/Orson Swindle will probably be hanging around there for your general amusement.