SB Nation User Blog: billyzane

Numbers Game: So You're Saying There's a Chance!

billyzane — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 22:04:52 -0000

Well, that sucked. Everyone needs to read Peter's beautiful tome on how to handle ourselves in this incredibly unfortunate (and in our minds unjust) situation. But the chances of Texas going to the BCS National Championship game are not gone. Take a look at the BCS standings:

		BCS		Harris Poll			USA Today			Computer Rankings
	TEAM	BCS AVG	PRVS	RK	PTS	%	RK	PTS	%	COMP AVG	A&H	RB	CM	KM	JS	PW	%
1	Alabama	.9713	1	1	2815	.9965	1	1521	.9974	3	25	25	23	21	22	22	.920
2	Oklahoma	.9351	3	4	2569	.9094	2	1397	.9161	1	22	24	24	25	25	25	.980
3	Texas	.9223	2	3	2575	.9115	3	1396	.9154	2	23	22	25	23	24	24	.940
4	Florida	.8851	4	2	2619	.9271	4	1385	.9082	6	20	23	22	20	20	19	.820
5	USC	.8076	5	5	2378	.8418	5	1298	.8511	8	17	21	19	19	18	17	.730
6	Utah	.7844	6	7	2111	.7473	7	1153	.7561	5	24	19	21	22	21	21	.850
7	Texas Tech	.7805	7	8	2090	.7398	8	1116	.7318	4	21	20	20	24	23	23	.870
8	Penn State	.7373	8	6	2177	.7706	6	1176	.7711	9	18	16	17	16	16	18	.670
9	Boise State	.7034	9	9	1937	.6857	9	1044	.6846	7	19	18	18	18	19	20	.740
10	Ohio State	.6340	10	10	1856	.6570	10	999	.6551	11	16	17	16	11	13	14	.590

Follow me after the jump for a little bit of thought on Texas' remaining opportunities.

Fact 1 that People are Forgetting: Our beef today was not with the BCS but with the Big 12 tiebreaker scheme. We won't know if the BCS did it's job this year until after next weekend. The BCS was never meant to break conference ties. You can't blame the BCS for this, only the conference that intertwined its conference rankings with a preliminary BCS poll that was not meant to do anything of the sort.

If Fact 2 is Relevant, it will be the Best of Both Worlds: Missouri beating OU sends Texas to the National Championship game and OU to the Cotton Bowl. USC is too far back to pass Texas even if it beats UCLA and wins its conference. Even voters won't be able to muster enough chutzpah to put USC ahead considering the fact that if OU loses to Missouri, Texas will be viewed as a team that got screwed.

Fact 3 is Something We've All Been Slowly Realizing: If Florida beats Alabama, it's possible that the Gators will not pass Texas in the BCS. I posted about it last week, a few people have brought it up in the comments and 54b wrote a FanPost about it. Florida is way behind in the computers. A win over Alabama will certainly help, but who knows how much. If Florida and OU split the #1 human vote (so that each is effectively ranked 1.5, while Texas is ranked a solid number 3 (or a little bit higher by some who still have Texas above OU on their ballots)), then it's possible that Texas will retain enough of a computer advantage to lead Florida in the BCS. It's unlikely because I think Florida will make up enough ground in the computers to take the BCS lead, but it's not a given that Florida will be above Texas even if it beats Alabama.

Blind Opinion States its Case to be Fact 4: If Texas cannot make it to the National Championship game, then my greatest rooting interest in the Orange Bowl is for OU to get the shit beat out of it for the 5th straight BCS Bowl game. I think Florida has a better chance to effect such a beatdown than Alabama and because of that, and combined with Fact 3 (and the fact that Nick Saban is quite possibly the devil incarnate), I'll be rooting for the Gators on Saturday.

Above all else though, Go Mizzou! Beat the Hell Outta The Land (and Big12) Thieves!

Texas leads OU in Harris by a 6 points

billyzane — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 21:14:21 -0000

Texas leads OU in Harris by a 6 points

I believe this means that Texas is a microscopic amount ahead of OU in the human polls. So essentially, it's going to come down to the computers. Can Texas maintain their lead or will they be tied? If OU leads Texas in the computers, I think OU takes it. If it's a tie, I think Texas takes it.

Tech-Baylor 4th Quarter Open Thread (aka OMG!!!1! Go Bears!!!11!!1)

billyzane — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 23:02:54 -0000

Bama is predictably destroying a terrible Auburn team, and Florida is likewise beating up on the Seminoles. But alas, there is hope! Your adopted fightin' Baylor Bear football team is leading Texas Tech 28-21 heading into the 4th Quarter. If the Bears win, whatever happens in Stillwater tonight means absolutely nothing to Texas, as the Horns will be headed to Kansas City regardless. And a win in Kansas City unequivocally sends Texas to Miami. So the moral of the story is: SIC 'EM BEARS!!!

BZ's News and Views

billyzane — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:27:36 -0000

In the grand tradition of such terrible writers as Larry King and the terrible newspaper for which he wrote, USA Today, I'm proud to present BZ's News and Views -- random, disjointed thoughts from around the college football world and beyond.

I've been a little preoccupied with BCS stats and trying not to get secretly laid off at my law firm, which has been a little bit of an issue for some at my firm the last week or so (but success! so far!), so the frequency of the ol' News and Views has waned quite a bit. But I thought I'd give all of you a nice hearty Thanksgiving helping of non sequtirs. Now with even less football talk!
How about Schlabach, huh? Friend of the blog.
I love everything about the Charlie Weis Era at Notre Dame except for the fact that Jimmy Clausen is rounding into a decent QB. Oh, and the pants situation. Biggest. Pleats. Ever.
I've seen the Tulane and Notre Dame basketball games and I have to say that this team reminds me of a more talented but less cohesive 2003-04 Texas squad (the year after TJ left).
My firm's football team just had a 10-0 regular season in the NYC Lawyer's League, outscoring our opponents 258-68. Add this to my two law school championships and it's plain to see that BZ just wins football games.

Each year, I have a lucky Longhorns shirt that I don't wash until Texas loses. I didn't do a load of laundry after the Tech game so I was wearing it again for the Baylor game. It smelled. Horribly. I was admonished to take it off. Texas was up 14-0 so I thought, what the hell, we'll beat Baylor regardless of what shirt I'm wearing. So I took it off. Baylor proceeded to score 14 consecutive points. I put it back on and Texas went on a 31-0 run. Never doubt the shirt.
Except when Blake Gideon has a chance to intercept a pass......no. I'm over it.
I'm totally not over it.
Shelden Williams looks like Ken Griffey Jr. on the Simpsons softball episode after he's had too much brain and nerve tonic. It's uncanny. I've been screaming this for years, since Williams was at Duke. And he's engaged to Candace Parker? The world is unfair.

So anyone remember that Capitol Hill intern who kept an anonymous blog about whoring herself out to famous Washington bigwigs? Except then it became not-so-anonymous and she got fired, wrote a book which is now being made into an HBO show, and filed for bankruptcy? Yeah, my law school buddy is marrying her. I'm invited to their post-wedding celebration. It should be interesting.
I make some killer apple sauce at Thanksgiving. Jealous?
Seriously though, Notre Dame just lost to Syracuse. Love it.
My dirtiest little secret is that I sort of don't hate purple popsicles. Shhhh.
If Barack Obama truly wants a Team of Rivals, he needs to appoint someone who is not a true college football playoff proponent. I'm available and ready to serve my country, Mr. President Elect. And really, what's more practical than a flexible solution to one of the great problems of our day?
In case you're wondering, I'm avoiding talking about the BCS situation. I'm completely burnt out from the 3 weeks of hyper-analyzation I've undertaken. Next week shouldn't be nearly as confusing. Which is good news. I don't think my brain could take it.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone, and remember, in these confusing times, salvation is just one Texas Tech loss away. Go Bears! Go Noles! War Eagle! And of course...
Hook 'em Horns.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach Comes Down in Favor of the Horns

billyzane — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:23:08 -0000

ESPN's Mark Schlabach Comes Down in Favor of the Horns

Friend of the blog (and I do mean that sincerely--he and I have e-mailed several times ever since this little ditty, and he's proven himself an extremely nice, calm and humble person) Mark Schlabach has used his weekly "On the Mark" column to argue for Texas being ranked ahead of OU. Keep it coming, mainstream media.

Thanks also to all of you who posted FanShots about this in rapid succession.

Numbers Game: BCS Analysis

billyzane — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 22:16:03 -0000

Enough with the niceties. Down to the nitty-gritty of the BCS numbers. Note that the 1 member of the Harrris Poll that forgot to vote last week is back so the "Last Week's Points" amount is irrelevant for that poll.

Harris Poll
Last Wk Pts	Expected Pts	Actual Pts	Diff. from Expected	Team
--	2850	2839	-11	Alabama
--	2736	2644	-92	Florida
--	2622	2598	-24	OU
--	2508	2577	+31	Texas
--	2394	2387	-7	USC
--	2280	2187	-93	PSU
--	2166	2118	-48	Tx Tech
--	2052	2113	+61	Utah

USA Today Coaches Poll
Last Wk Pts	Expected Pts	Actual Pts	Diff. from Expected	Team
1508	1525	1518	-7	Alabama
1305	1464	1412	-52	OU
1373	1403	1401	-2	Florida
1322	1342	1370	+28	Texas
1245	1281	1288	+7	USC
1093	1220	1157	-63	PSU
1113	1159	1153	-6	Utah
1465	1098	1073	-25	Tx Tech

Analysis? You want analysis? Follow me after the jump.

Fact 1 Pisses Me Off : OU jumped Texas in both human polls. This is disheartening, but not entirely unexpected given the infantile memory capacity of most human voters. "Ooh, OU is shiny! Gimme Gimme!"

Fact 2 Provides a Glimmer of Hope: Texas still has a chance, albeit a slim one, to be ranked ahead of OU in the BCS even if OU beats OSU. Texas is barely behind OU in the Harris Poll and it seems as though Florida might be a buffer between OU and Texas on many ballots. A Florida loss to Florida State might just give Texas enough points in the human polls assuming Texas retains it's computer advantage, which is of course not a given.

Fact 3 Thanks the Red Raiders for Playing: Brad Edwards' speculation notwithstanding, Texas Tech is no longer in the national championship conversation. This fact is unspeakably HUGE for Texas. Even if OU loses to OSU and Tech goes to Kansas City and beats Missouri, I am about 90% certain that Tech cannot pass Texas in the BCS (as unfair as that might sound), meaning Texas will go to Miami. If OU goes to KC and loses to Missouri, Tech will likewise not pass Texas in the BCS.

For the Preceding Reasons, Fact 4: If OU loses another game and Texas beats A&M, the Horns will in all likelihood be headed to Miami.

Fact 5 Gives You Rooting Directions: Above all else, root for Baylor to beat Texas Tech and Florida State to beat Florida. If Baylor wins, then OU doesn't matter and that's pretty great. If Florida loses, there are two benefits. First, it eliminates any buffer in between OU and Texas in the human polls, increasing the possibility that Texas will be ranked ahead of OU in the BCS, and second, it dramatically increases the possibility of SEC chaos (i.e. 2-loss Florida wins the SEC) that would automatically send Texas to Miami if Texas wins out. A lower-level rooting interest would be OSU over OU. I think this sends Texas to the national championship game, but it also eliminates Texas from the Big 12 race (unless Baylor beats Tech). Also, hell, root for Auburn against Bama. Chaos in the SEC is good for Texas.

Just to Reiterate Fact 6 Yet Again: USC is out of this, barring some serious chaos. In any event, USC will not under any circumstances pass Texas if Texas wins out. Stop worrying about USC. They are way too far behind in both the human and the computer polls. Look at the numbers from the human polls: USC is basically right where you'd expect a #5 team to be, points-wise, whereas Texas is way ahead of where you'd expect a #4 to be. Plus USC is way behind in the computers and has no good games left with which to move up (Notre Dame and UCLA).

To the Computers!

Computers Poll
A&H	Billingsley	Colley	Massey	Sagarin	Wolfe	Average	Diff. from Expected	Team
25	25	24	22	23	25	.970	-.030	Alabama
23	23	25	24	25	24	.960	Even	Texas
22	24	21	25	22	22	.900	-.020	Oklahoma
21	22	20	23	24	23	.890	+.010	Texas Tech
24	20	23	21	21	21	.860	+.020	Utah
20	19	22	20	19	19	.780	-.020	Florida
19	16	19	17	18	20	.730	-.030	Penn State
16	21	18	19	16	18	.710	-.010	USC

Encouraging Fact 7 That's Actually Not That Encouraging: Texas is still ranked quite a bit ahead of OU, though the margin is decreasing. Note though that OU is a weak #3, below what we would expect from a consensus #3. This means that even without overtaking Texas, they can still increase their computer scores relative to Texas. That's not good.

Speculation That I'm Not Even Going to Pretend is Fact 8: OU probably isn't going to pass Texas in the computers as a whole even with a win over Oklahoma State. They will be close, however. Right now, the computers are what's keeping Texas ahead of OU in the BCS. I'm not sure it's going to be enough unless a few human voters change their minds. Which, for the record, I think is entirely possible. Many human voters undoubtedly got caught up in the Sooners' awe-inspiring final score vs. Tech. But a week later, with the magical pixie dust wiped from their eyes, will some voters think to themselves, "You know, I have Texas Tech ranked #8 on my ballot, so this isn't really a discussion of a 3-way tie. This is between Texas and OU. And I do seem to vaguely recall Texas beating OU...maybe I'll make a change"? Possibly a few might be so clear-headed. Or possibly a team like Florida might lose, eliminating a buffer between Texas and OU in the rankings and increasing Texas' points in the human polls more than OU's. I don't know. But either is certainly possible.

Fact 9 is Something I Recently Realized But I'm Scared of Publicizing: Florida is doing so terribly in the computers that it's possible (though not probable) that a 1-loss SEC champion Florida might be ranked behind non-division champ Texas in the BCS. If Florida and Oklahoma both with their conference championships, they will split the #1 human vote while Texas will be a near-unanimous #3. That means that even if Florida is ranked #1, they will be a weak #1. Florida will undoubtedly move up in the computers with wins over FSU and Bama, but look how far behind they are right now. Not only are they 6th in the computers, they're a WEAK 6th. Can they make that distance up? I don't think so. They'd have to bank on being a near-unanimous #1 over Oklahoma in the human polls, and I'm not sure that would be the case. We've all assumed that the winner of the SEC championship would be in Miami (and if it's Bama, I think that's still true, even with a loss to Auburn), but Florida is currently 4th in the BCS and two teams ahead of them (Texas and OU) might not lose the rest of the way. Something to think about.

Speculation Posing as Fact 10 Breaks Down the Ways Texas Gets to Miami: (NB: these all assume a Texas win over A&M.) These are in order from most likely to send Texas to Miami to least likely. To be clear, they are not in order of most likely to actually occur to least likely to actually occur.

Baylor beats Tech; Texas beats Missouri.
OU loses to OSU; Tech loses to Missouri.
Texas wins tiebreaker with OU; Texas beats Missouri.
Florida loses to Florida State; Florida beats Alabama.
OU loses to Missouri.
OU loses to OSU, Texas Tech beats Missouri.
Bama loses to Auburn; Bama beats Florida.
Florida, OU and Texas all win out (see Fact 9 infra -- if Florida doesn't pass Texas in the BCS, Texas will definitely go to Miami, but the likelihood of this happening is slim).

There are lots of different things that can happen and there's a lot of football left to be played. So, um, Yes We Can!

Attention Human Voters: The Case for Texas

billyzane — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 03:44:28 -0000

OU has just delivered a beatdown of Texas Tech that is going to be tempting to use as reason for moving OU ahead of Texas on your ballots. This is a reasonable instant reaction. OU played well. Of course, Tech played terribly, and not all of that can be credited to OU. But I beseech every one of you human voters to stop, read this, and contemplate what you're doing before you do it. Because there is most definitely an excellent and convincing case to be made for Texas being ranked above OU and Texas Tech.

As you know, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma played a round-robin as they do every year and all three came out 1-1. Tech played 1 game on the road and 1 at home. OU played 1 at home and 1 on a neutral field. Texas played 1 on a neutral field and 1 on the road. Which one of these is harder than the other 2? Had Texas played Tech in Austin, would the Longhorns have won? I don't know because Texas didn't play Tech at home, just as they didn't play OU at home. That's got to be worth something. Advantage Texas.

So let's look at the losses. Tech lost in epic, blowout fashion tonight. OU lost by 10 points on a neutral field. Texas lost on a touchdown pass with 1 second left in the game (1 play after dropping a sure-thing interception) on the road. Advantage Texas.

Texas played the most epic 4-game stretch off teams in probably 20 years, in which they beat OU, Missouri and Oklahoma State, all top-11 teams at the time. And in the 4th game of that brutal stretch, on the road in a hostile environment at night, they didn't fold like Tech did tonight; they battled on their last, weary legs and lost on a last-second touchdown pass. Neither OU nor Tech had to go through even a 3-game stretch the likes of which Texas blew through on their way to Lubbock. Advantage: Texas.

Let's look at the wins. OU has not yet played Oklahoma State, which both Texas and Tech have beaten at home. Texas beat Kansas by 28 points in Lawrence (35-7), Tech beat Kansas by 42 in Lawrence, and OU beat Kansas by 14 at home (where all of OU's big games have been this year....well, except the one they lost...to TEXAS), giving up 31 points in the process. Advantage Texas over OU.

OU did beat TCU and Cincinnati, two decent teams. Have to give them that. Of course, they also played two of the worst teams in football. I would have said "two of the worst teams in D-1 football" except Chattanooga is actually one of the worst teams in Division 2 football, with a pathetic 1-11 record. Oh and the other team? Washington, which lost today to Washington State and is now 0-11. Tech played TWO division 2 teams. Texas played none, and actually played an SEC team. There's something to be said for not being able to take several weeks off to stay fresh for your later games by playing a D-2 team or the equivalent of one. Texas has not played one of those teams and has not had a week to take off. Oh, and beyond that, Texas beat the ever living crap out of Missouri, a top-15 team than neither Tech nor OU have beaten this year. Advantage Texas

Oh, and one more thing. If you're like most voters and you've moved Tech out of the equation after their terrible performance tonight, and you're deciding between Texas and OU, agonizing over who should be ranked ahead of who, let me remind you of one thing. On a beautiful October Day in Dallas--not Austin, not Norman, Dallas--Texas beat Oklahoma by 10 points. If you were ever thinking to yourself, "These two are close, I wish I had a some neutral, objective way of determining which of these teams was better," well, I think this might be it.

Think about this: if Texas and OU end up in a 2-way tie for the Big 12 South, Texas wins. But then, if they end up in a 3-way tie with Texas Tech, OU might win over Texas, not by virtue of doing anything different than what they already have, but simply by virtue of Tech having 1 loss in conference instead of 2. What Tech does or doesn't do should have nothing to with whether Texas or OU wins the Big 12 South. And only the BCS can make sure that it doesn't by ranking Texas ahead of OU. And that means you, human voters.

It's the Battle Cry of the University: Remember the Cotton Bowl! 45-35 on a neutral field. Advantage Texas.

Tech-OU 2nd Half Open Thread

billyzane — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 02:57:49 -0000

Well that was ridiculous. 42-7 OU was not exactly what we were hoping for when some of us decided to root for OU to win this game. So the priorities change. I say we give up on the Big 12 championship game and root for OU to drop 80 on Tech.

A 1-loss Tech team that beat Texas is a threat to be ranked ahead of Texas in the BCS if it ends up in the Big 12 Championship game. But I think that a huge blowout loss by Tech eliminates them the BCS conversation, even if OU loses to OSU and Tech makes it to Kansas City and wins. That means that OU losing to either OSU or Missouri might get Texas in the National Championship game.

Who's with me?!?!

The Numbers Game: A BCS Status Update

billyzane — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:04:07 -0000

If you missed last week's BCS Numbers Game, take a quick read here of the section "An Explanatory Prelude That Seems Simple But is Oh So Important." It will give you a background for the numbers we're looking at here. So let's step right up and take a look at the two human polls (note: some idiot didn't submit his ballot in the Harris Poll this week so the expected points this week are based on 113 voters instead of 114):

Harris Poll
Last Wk Pts	Expected Pts	Actual Pts	Diff. from Expected	Team
2808	2825	2789	-36	Alabama
2768	2712	2737	+25	Tx Tech
2531	2599	2532	-67	Florida
2471	2486	2476	-10	Texas
2427	2373	2375	+2	Oklahoma
2329	2260	2304	+44	USC
2073	2147	2063	-84	PSU
2034	2034	2014	-20	Utah

USA Today Coaches Poll
Last Wk Pts	Expected Pts	Actual Pts	Diff. from Expected	Team
1508	1525	1508	-17	Alabama
1469	1464	1465	+1	Tx Tech
1348	1403	1373	-30	Florida
1300	1342	1322	-20	Texas
1314	1281	1305	+24	Oklahoma
1268	1220	1245	+25	USC
1104	1159	1113	-46	Utah
1074	1098	1093	-5	PSU

Analysis? You want analysis? Follow me after the jump.

Once again, all analysis relating to Texas getting to the Big 12 championship game assumes that Texas Tech loses to OU this weekend. Nothing against Texas Tech, but we need it to happen to get to Kansas City. To the facts!

Heartening Fact 1: Florida and Texas gained a lot of points in the Coaches' Poll while Oklahoma lost a few and USC lost a lot, and the same was true in the Harris Poll, except that USC stayed pretty constant there. There is a lot of good news here. Once again, rankings of each poll as a whole don't matter other than symbolically. The story from this weekend wasn't how Texas jumped OU in the coaches' poll, it was how many coaches (and Harris poll voters, for that matter) moved Texas up and/or OU down. And there were a LOT.

Opinion Bordering on Fact 2, but Closer to Fact than Last Week: Once again, USC is out the discussion barring chaos of 2007 proportions. They lost a ton of points this week, probably due to voters who had them too high to begin with and dropped them to where they should ahve been all along (around #6) after their first half dogfight with Stanford. The only way they can make it to Miami is if either the Big 12 or the SEC doesn't send a representative. That's going to take a lot of occurrences, the vast majority of which are of very low probability.

Totally Meta Fact 3: Last week's "Actual Fact 4 Followed by Reasoned Speculation" has occurred, just as I predicted. We shall see if the somewhat less likely "Actual Fact #5 Followed by Somewhat Specious Speculation" will follow. We don't have to worry too much anymore about voters who will keep OU ahead of Texas on their ballots if OU wins out (since most currently have Texas ahead of OU), but will Texas' head-to-head win over OU on a neutral field prevent those voters from moving OU ahead of Texas on their ballots even if OU wins out? I sure hope so.

In Which I Equivocate as to My Statement of Fact 4 but Eventually Confirm My Initial Belief: Florida is not a buffer between Texas and OU in the human polls. Yes, Florida is #4 in the BCS as a whole, in between #3 Texas and #5 OU. But it is not in between Texas and OU in any of the human polls and from the looks of the points, Florida appears to be consolidating its position as #3 in both polls, ahead of both UT and OU. However, there is some indication that Florida might be ranked in between Texas and OU on some potentially significant portion of the ballots, particularly in the Harris Poll. Florida is 67 points below what you would expect from a team that was voted #3 in every single poll. This means that there is a significant group of voters that ranked them below #3 with not that many who ranked them above #3. Texas is pretty well settled into the #4 spot as OU is in the #5 spot, while USC is far above its expected points for the #6 spot. This could mean that some small amount of voters have USC #3 and Florida #6 or that some voters have USC or Florida in between Texas and OU. But I think that's less likely than the possibility that most voters have Texas and OU right next to each other in that order, but some have both ahead of Florida and about the same amount have both behind USC. This could easily lead to the scores we see, and would mean that neither Florida nor USC is a buffer between Texas and OU in the human polls.

Fact 5 Controverts Your Expectations: OU being ranked highly (but not higher than Texas) on most voters' ballots going into this week is good for Texas. Given how many points each of Texas and OU have, the ideal way that they would have gotten there is that every voter had Texas exactly one spot higher than OU. That way, OU has to jump Texas on voters' ballots in order to gain any points in the human polls. As outlined earlier and last week, doing so may take some levels of cognitive dissonance that voters aren't willing to tolerate. The worst possible situation we could be in right now is that the numbers got this way by some voters putting OU ahead of Texas and some of them putting OU several spots lower than Texas. This means that if OU wins out, those voters with OU ahead will leave them this way while those with OU several spots behind can move them up several places without moving them ahead of Texas. This allows OU to gain more points. Neither human poll releases its component ballots prior to the last one (which is TERRIBLE--even if you don't attach a name to the ballot to preserve anonymity, at least let us know what the ballots say) so I have no idea which is the truth. But hope that it's Texas one spot above OU on every ballot.

To the Computers!

Computers Poll
A&H	Billingsley	Colley	Massey	Sagarin	Wolfe	Average	Diff. from Expected	Team
24	24	23	25	25	25	.980	-.020	Texas Tech
25	25	22	23	24	24	.960	--	Alabama
23	23	25	24	23	23	.930	+.010	Texas
22	19	21	21	22	21	.850	-.030	Utah
21	21	24	20	21	20	.830	-.010	Florida
20	20	19	22	20	22	.820	+.020	Oklahoma
18	18	18	19	19	19	.740	-.020	Georgia
17	22	19	18	16	18	.730	+.010	USC

Encouraging Fact 6: Texas improved its computer poll numbers, going from .920 to .930 (moving up 1 spot on two ballots while staying the same on four ballots) while OU stayed the same at .820 (moving up 1 spot on three ballots, down 1 spot on two ballots, and staying the same on one ballot). Texas has an enormous lead on OU in the computers right now.

Sobering Fact 7: Texas' enormous lead means that there's plenty of room for OU to move up and virtually no room for Texas to move up. If OU wins out (as Texas needs them to do for the Horns to have a shot at the conference championship game), they will move up in the computers, but Texas will not move up in the computers unless someone ahead of them loses.

Fact 8 Encourages Some Uncomfortable Rooting Interests: Buffers in between Texas and OU are extremely important. If Texas Tech loses to OU, we want Tech to stay above OU in the computers, meaning that Texas will move up in some computer ballots while OU will not. Additionally, we need to root for the following teams: Florida (between UTand OU in 4 computers), Utah (between UT and OU in 3 computers), USC (between UT and OU in 2 computers), Alabama (between UT and OU in 2 computers).

Disheartening Discussion of Texas' BCS Chances if Texas Tech Beats OU: I want to win the conference championship. And if Texas wins the conference championship, they are Miami-bound, 100%. That said, I think we're all to a point where we're okay with the idea of Texas making the national championship game without winning its division considering the ridiculous tiebreakers involved and the murderer's row that no one but the Horns had to face this year. So here is a little bit of analysis on how that might happen.

Opinion Bordering on Fact 9: If Tech beats OU and Baylor but loses to Missouri, then Texas will go to the National Championship game. OU will be out of the picture so it will come down to USC, Texas, Texas Tech, and the loser of the SEC championship game. The loser of the SEC championship game will NOT face the team that just beat them in Miami. Back-to-back rematches aren't going to happen unless there's no other viable candidate. If they lost, Florida would have 2 losses and be out of the picture and Alabama's computer rankings (already tenuous as an undefeated team) will plummet if they lost. USC cannot gain enough ground in the computers to compete and at the absolute most will be ranked 1 spot above Texas in the human polls (though I doubt even that). Texas Tech is closer than those 2, but Texas' computer ranking will trump Tech's and Tech will at best be in a virtual tie with Texas in the human polls. Texas goes to Miami.

Pretty Much Fact 10: If Tech wins the Big 12 and Florida loses a regular season game and then wins the SEC championship, Texas will go to Miami to play Tech. OU will have 2 losses, as will Florida. USC can't pass Texas and Alabama also will not have the luxury of calling itself a conference champion. Rematch!

Opinion Presented As Fact 11 Even Though It's Much Less Certain Than I'm Making It Out to be: If Alabama loses in the regular season (say to Auburn) and then beats Florida in the SEC championship game, it will go to Miami over Texas. This means that if Tech wins the Big 12, it will be Tech-Alabama. Even though Texas' resume will CLEARLY be better than Alabama's, Bama will have (a) won its conference championship, (b) beaten Florida on a neutral field in the last game of the year, and (c) not already played (and lost to) Texas Tech. Even though the humans will move Bama below Texas after the loss, they will move them above Texas after the Florida win because of the previous 3 reasons. Computers will favor Texas, but not by enough, I don't think. It will be very close though. However, if Tech loses the Big 12 championship game (as outlined in Fact 9 above), Texas will go and will face Alabama.

There are other possibilities for Texas to potentially reach Miami, such as (i) OU beating Tech but losing to OSU, sending 1-loss Tech (potentially ranked below UT in the BCS) to Kansas City, or (ii) OU winning the BCS-ranking tiebreaker over UT and TTU and going to Kansas City and losing (or winning and chaos reigning in the SEC sending UT to face OU in Miami), but these are just ridiculous to even think about right now and are far less likely to send Texas to Miami than the scenarios outlined above.

Take-Home Points from this Column: Texas did exactly what it needed to do this weekend: win a convincing game against Kansas while OU was on a bye and force human pollsters to move Texas ahead of OU on their ballots. In doing so, Texas has increased its BCS lead over OU from last week (UT's .8798 to OU's .8444 -- a difference of .0354) to this week (UT's .8911 to OU's .8388 -- a difference of .0523).

Now what needs to happen in the coming weeks is, after OU hopefully beats Tech by a small margin, Tech needs to stay between UT and OU in the computers, and human voters need to think long and hard about a certain October afternoon in Dallas before they move OU ahead of Texas on their ballots. The punditocracy is behind Texas for the time being and I truly think that all this talk about the travesty of OU ahead of Texas before they've played Tech or OSU has convinced voters to move Texas up. And so if Dallas can prevent a solid amount of voters from moving OU ahead of Texas, then Texas can maintain a lead in the human polls or essentially tie OU and hope the massive computer lead doesn't evaporate.

If Tech beats OU, well, root like hell for Mizzou against Tech and/or for Florida State against Florida and then Florida against Alabama. Those are the two best bets. See you here next week, I'm sure.

The Numbers Game: 40 Days and 40 Nights of BCS Posts

billyzane — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 16:09:54 -0000

So we've seen the new BCS poll, Peter's taken us through the various scenarios in which Texas can make a BCS game and/or the national championship game, and HornBrain has fired his perpetually delayed weekly salvo of hate in the war against Richard Billingsley's awful computer ranking system. But what I want to focus on here is the nitty gritty of the numbers that constitute the BCS rankings to see what we're looking at going forward and how likely things are to change given the various scenarios. That's right, it's the 84th post in the last 2 days on the BCS! Now with even more numbers!

Some might call this a useless exercise in "how can Texas back into the Big 12 and national championship games" and that's true in a sense. But what's also true is that just because a team has 1 loss doesn't mean it's backing into anything. A 2-loss team won the national championship last year. This is the reality we're living with. You're not out of anything until you're mathematically eliminated. And Texas' math is very much alive for both the Big 12 and National Championship games.

So let's take a look at the numbers, shall we?

An Explanatory Prelude That Seems Simple But is Oh So Important: It's important to realize that rankings in the BCS component polls (Harris, Coaches and Computers) mean very little. It's the scores that establish those rankings that matter, not the rankings themselves. In the Harris Poll, there are 114 voters for every #1 ranking, a team gets 25 points, for every #2 ranking, a team gets 24 points, and so on. Thus the greatest number of points a team can get if it gets all 114 first place votes is 2,850, which is 25 times 114. Alabama has 2,808 out of a possible 2,850, which gives them their Harris poll score of .9853 (which is 2808 divided by 2850). If Alabama had, say, only 2770 points out of 2850, they would still be ranked #1, but their Harris Poll score for BCS purposes would only be .9719, significantly lower than it is now. Thus rank doesn't matter, only points.

And because of that, you can have a "strong" ranking or a "weak" ranking. Therefore, if the #4 team is just 1 point behind the #3 team in the Harris poll (thus #3 is weak and #4 is strong), and then if the #4 team then passes the #3 team the next week and now leads by 1 point, that means virtually nothing for the BCS because even though the rankings changed, the points stayed almost exactly the same. It's not absolute rankings that matter, it's the points.

That being established, let's take a look at the Harris and Coaches Polls, points-wise:

Harris Poll
Rank	Expected Pts	Actual Pts	Difference	Team
1	2850	2808	-42	Alabama
2	2736	2768	32	Texas Tech
3	2622	2531	-91	Florida
4	2508	2471	-37	Texas
5	2394	2427	33	Oklahoma
6	2280	2329	49	USC
7	2166	2073	-93	PSU
8	2052	2034	-18	Utah

USA Today Coaches Poll
Rank	Expected Pts	Actual Pts	Difference	Team
1	1525	1508	-17	Alabama
2	1464	1469	5	Texas Tech
3	1403	1348	-55	Florida
4	1342	1314	-28	Oklahoma
5	1281	1300	19	Texas
6	1220	1268	48	USC
7	1159	1104	-55	Utah
8	1098	1074	-24	PSU

So now we've got something to work with. Here's what we see: Bama and Tech are clearly 1 and 2, though a few brave souls have some other team (likely Florida) ahead of one or both of them. Then there's a clumping from 3-6 as numbers 3 and 4 are both below what would be expected of their rankings, points-wise, while 5 and 6 have more points than would be expected for their rankings. This seems to show that these 4 teams are clumped together and voters disagree on where to rank them relative to each other. Only 80 points separates these four in the Coaches Poll rather than the expected 183 and only 202 points separate them in the Harris Poll rather than the expected 342.

It seems that barring a catastrophe of epic proportions, the national championship game contestants will likely be either Bama, Tech, or (should either or both of those two lose) one of these four clumped teams. So let's unpack this a bit by establishing Five Facts.

Opinion Masquerading as Fact 1: USC's remaining schedule will not allow them togain many points on any team ahead of them unless those teams lose or play incredibly poorly. Crushing victories over Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA are not going to impress anyone. USC needs several losses to make the national championship game. Only Florida, Alabama and Texas Tech control their own destinies. Win out and they're into the national championship game.

Actual Fact 2: Texas' lead over OU in the Harris Poll is greater than OU's lead over Texas in the Coaches Poll. Texas leads OU by 44 points in the Harris, where the expected lead for #4 over #5 is 114 points (or 37.61% of expected). OU's lead over Texas in the Coaches poll is 14 out of an expected 61 (or 22.95% of expected). This means that Texas is currently leading Oklahoma in the Human polls.

Opinion Bordering on Fact 3: OU has the most daunting schedule remaining in the regular season. Florida plays South Carolina, The Citadel, and at Florida State, while Texas plays at Kansas and vs. Texas A&M. OU, on the other hand, has Tech at home and Oklahoma State in Stillwater. That's rough, but if they pull it off, they stand to gain some ground points-wise, if not rankings-wise.

Actual Fact 4 Followed by Reasoned Speculation: Texas plays Kansas in Lawrence this weekend while OU is idle. A dominating win over a pretty decent Kansas team on the road while OU is idle might provide incentive for Texas to increase its points lead in the Harris poll while perhaps overtaking OU in the Coaches poll. By which I mean that more voters in both polls would rank Texas ahead of OU than currently do.

Actual Fact 5 Followed by Somewhat Specious Speculation: Texas beat OU on a neutral field. Head-to-head tends to resonate with human voters. If Texas is ranked ahead of OU on most voters' ballots going into OU's final two games, then the head-to-head win by Texas on a neutral field might prevent some voters from moving OU ahead of Texas if OU wins out because it takes it takes a certain amount of audacity (by which I mean to connote "fearless daring" and not "insolence") to take the plunge and move a team like OU above a team like Texas when Texas beat OU on a neutral field. However, it takes no audacity (of either connotation) to keep OU above Texas if they are already there. Thus, if most voters have OU ahead of Texas to begin with, anything short of a loss by OU will not move Texas ahead of the Sooners on those particular ballots.

A Calming Word to Texas Tech Fans on Scenarios Leading to the Big 12 Championship Game: We know for a fact that Texas cannot make the Big 12 Championship game unless Texas wins out and Oklahoma beats Texas Tech. In speaking at all about the possibility of Texas going to the Big 12 Championship game, we are implicitly assuming that these things will happen, not because we assume that they will, but because we know that they must under this hypothetical. Okay, Tech fans? So, if those things occur, then 1 of 2 things (or both) needs to happen: either Tech loses to Baylor and/or OU beats OSU. If Tech loses to Baylor, Texas goes to Kansas City regardless of the outcome of the Bedlam game. If Tech beats Baylor and OU beats OSU, then the team that's ahead in the BCS wins the South division and goes to Kansas City.

I think it's a fair assumption that if Tech loses to OU, they will be ranked below both Texas and OU in the BCS. It's not necessarily fair that this will be the case, but as a matter of name recognition above anything, humans will put them below while I think the computers will as well (at least behind UT if not OU) given their gimpy early-season schedule. Thus in this limited scenario, the question becomes who is ahead in the BCS, Texas or OU? Fact 3 above states that OU has the possibility to impress the most, but Facts 4 and 5 give me some hope that a majority of Humans (or at least around half) will still have Texas on top of OU in their polls come season's end. The important thing is for Texas to gain ground this weekend to offset to the greatest extent possible the ground that OU will gain back in the last 2 weeks.

If OU and Texas are approximately tied in the human polls or if OU has a slight advantage (i.e. something close to the advantage that Texas currently has), then it will come down to the computers. Let's take a quick look at those.

Computers Poll
Rank	A&H	Billingsley	Colley	Massey	Sagarin	Wolfe	Average	Team
1	24	25	24	25	25	24	.980	Texas Tech
2	25	24	23	24	24	25	.970	Alabama
3	22	23	25	23	23	23	.920	Texas
4	23	19	21	22	22	22	.870	Utah
T-5	19	20	20	21	21	21	.820	Oklahoma
T-5	21	21	22	20	20	20	.820	Florida
7	18	18	17	19	19	19	.740	Georgia
8	17	22	19	18	16	18	.720	USC

Remember that the top ranking and the bottom ranking get thrown out (for some reason that I don't understand at all.....just throw out Billingsley's every time and be done with it) so only the middle 4 rankings get figured into the BCS score. Notice also that Texas is the consensus #3 team. The #3 team should have 92% of the possible points (23 times 4) and Texas has exactly that. perhaps more importantly, though, note that Utah is ranked in between Texas and OU in 4 polls and that Florida is ranked in between Texas and OU in 3 polls and USC, Texas Tech and Alabama are ranked in between Texas and OU in 1 poll each (as is Boise St., which is not shown in the chart). For Texas to have the best chance to be ranked ahead of OU at the end of the regular season, root for each and every one of these teams (particularly Utah and Florida) to win their remaining games in the regular season (except for Tech against OU of course) to keep as much buffer between Texas and OU in the computers as possible. Also keep in mind that while humans tend to forget or not pay attention to what happened earlier in the season, computers don't. Root for every one of OUs previous non-mutual opponents to lose (particularly TCU) and every one of Texas' non-mutual opponents to keep on winning (particularly Mizzou).

OU is ranked fairly low by the computers (they are a concensus 5.5, as is Florida), which is good for now, but it also means that the Sooners have plenty of room to move up with wins over Tech and OSU. They have a lot of ground to make up to catch Texas though and I'm not sure they can do it.

Speculation Evincing My Poor Judgment Not Necessarily Due to the Substance of the Speculation but Rather Simply by Virtue of My Speculation on Such Matters at All: But let's say that Texas moves up to a consensus #2 after the necessarily-assumed loss by Tech to OU and then OU moves up to a consensus #3 due to their presumed wins over Tech and OSU. Let's also say then that OU has an advantage over Texas in the human polls to the same degree as Texas currently has an advantage over OU. Who leads in the BCS then? Texas. And it's not really all that close either.

Granted, Texas current lead over OU in the human polls is quite small, so OU could indeed develop a bigger lead, but I think that there will be enough confusion among voters between Texas, OU, Florida and USC to keep things relatively close and prevent a consensus from arising. That is, I think the top 2 among those four teams will have fewer points than expected for their rankings and the bottom 2 will have more points than expected, just as they do now. And if things remain relatively close in the human polls, even if OU has a lead in them, they will have to gain a LOT of ground in the computers to catch Texas in the BCS. They have the best schedule they can ask for to do it, but are there enough games left? I'm just not sure.

Paradox: But one thing we can be sure of is that nothing is certain.

Quick Note on the BCS if Texas Does Not Make the Conference Championship Game and More Vagarious Speculation: Obviously, the best way to get into the national championship game for Texas is to win the conference. It's practically a guaranteed invite for either Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma. But various things can happen to send Texas to Miami without a detour in Kansas City, as Peter has outlined previously. However, in none of these scenarios is BCS number crunching really necessary as far as Texas goes, at least at this point, because it relies too much on chaos and no one knows how anything is going to react in chaos. We should revisist those issues if something unforeseen is to happen in the future.

A few things are safe bets though. Texas will go to the BCS championship game before USC and before any 2-loss team (even Florida), and likely before a 1-loss Texas Tech and a 1-loss Alabama. They will not go to the BCS championship game over a 1-loss Florida. So we're essentially down to one team: Oklahoma. If Texas is fighting for 1 spot in the championship game with 1-loss Oklahoma, who goes? I tend to think that if OU wins the Big 12 championship, they are ranked higher, and if neither 1-loss Texas nor 1-loss OU wins it, Texas is ranked higher. But this is all speculation. We just don't know what voters and computers will do with chaos. It's a fool's errand to predict the reactions in times of chaos and tumult.