Mod #1 is here.

Though MOD #1 garnered little interest, I've spent the weekend tweaking and refining my draft board a bit.  I've narrowed the pool for our first round selection at #14 to the following names:

SS Francisco Lindor (Montverde Academy, Clermont, FL)
RHP Taylor Guerrieri  (Spring Valley HS, North Augusta, SC)
LHP Daniel Norris  (Science Hill HS, Johnson City, TN)
RHP Matt Barnes  (Connecticut)

At least one of these players should be available at #14 overall.  I've got some of the talented college arms rated higher on my board, and should one of the more signable ones fall - Bauer, Gray, Jed Bradley, or Hultzen - I will be happy to select one of them instead.  Blake Swihart, Archie Bradley, and Joshua Bell were all given strong consideration as well, but all three present significant signability concerns.

The Marlins do not have any selections in the record-setting supplemental round of 2011, but have a second and third round selection, at #72 and #102 overall respectively.

It's hard to tell who will be available at these picks at this point, and on Draft Day, my general approach will be "best player available", or at least the highest ranked players on my list at that time.  One of my favorite sleepers over the past few weeks has been Nashville, GA OF Larry Greene, but he's jumped into the 1st round mix over the past week - I guess I can retire the sleeper tag now.  While I love him at #72 or #102, I don't think I *quite* love him enough at #14 overall.  Just to generate a bit of discussion and hopefully some constructive feedback, here's a half-dozen possibilities for the 2nd and 3rd round selections.

I've also linked small video clips from YouTube for each name.  One thing to note is that some of these videos don't show a whole lot and some are up to two years old.  While I have access to more recent video for most of these players, I don't necessarily feel comfortable linking to them without "express written permission", so to speak...

2nd Round (#72 overall)

LHP Chris Reed (Stanford):  video
C Brett Austin (Providence HS, Matthews, NC):  video
3B Garrett Buechele  (Oklahoma):  video
C Peter O'Brien  (Bethune-Cookman):  video
RHP Christian Montgomery  (Lawrence Central HS, Indianapolis, IN):  video
RHP Navery Moore  (Vanderbilt):  video

3rd Round (#102 overall)

LHP Jake Cave  (Kecoughtan HS, Hampton, VA):  video
LHP Cody Kukuk  (Free State HS, Mclouth, KS):  video
RHP Kyle Smith  (Santaluces HS, West Palm Beach, FL):  video
OF Mason Robbins  (George County HS, Leakesville, MS):  video
OF Keenyn Walker  (Central Arizona JC):  video
LHP Andy Suarez  (Miami Southwest HS, Miami, FL):  video

Just a few names to throw out there for consideration.  I'm sure there's a few Marlins fans who frequent this board, so please feel free to offer commentary, criticisms, additional information, or jellied napalm flames.

(The "Better Late Than Never" edition)

(DISCLAIMER:  As the Marlins are not "my" team (I am an Orioles lifer, to my frequent chagrin), I am deeply indebted to this article on MLB Bonus Baby for more information on the Marlins recent draft history/tendencies.  Thanks for the wonderful work you folks do :)  )

Drafting Tendencies

The Florida Marlins are historically a very prep-oriented team on draft day, and seem unlikely to buck that trend this year with a deep and intriguing pool of high school talent on display.  In hitters, the Marlins seem to prize athleticism, power, and speed primarily, and will occasionally reach on players with deficiencies in other areas of their game.  Athletic pitchers are coveted as well; projectable live arms with at least one plus pitch.  Their philosophy leads to a higher-than-ideal numbers of busts, but generally when they hit on a player, they hit in a big way.  The team never drafts based on Major League needs, preferring to choose toolsy, talented prepsters and let them percolate through a strong system of player development in the minors.

The Marlins seem to prefer warm-weather prospects primarily, with a long history of drafting from California, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and occasionally forays into the Midwest.  Signability, of course, is a significant factor - Florida has never failed to sign a first-round selection.  With only one selection this year in the first 71 picks (at #14), a slightly over-slot deal may be possible, but generally they will focus on players who will sign for slot (or lower).  Over the past five drafts, the Marlins have ranked 19th in draft spending - not quite as tight-fisted as their Major League payroll, but nowhere near Rays/Red Sox territory.

2011 Strategy

The Marlins are an interesting challenge for me, as I'm generally a college-first guy, with a strong emphasis on past production.  "Toolsy, raw athletes" who lack production, strike zone control, and fastball command are pretty much my kryptonite, as far as prospect evaluation goes.  That said, I'll be taking a "Best Player Available" approach on Draft Day, with my finalized list structured with strong regard to signability and the type of players that the Marlins generally find attractive.  It is very likely that the first selection at #14 will be a high school player, but consideration will be given if any of the higher-ranked, signable college talent drops to #14.

First Selection:  #14 overall

These are the players on my short list for our first-round selection.  Input and/or debate is warmly encouraged :)

C Blake Swihart (Cleveland HS, Rio Rancho, NM)

Lean, athletic backstop has a cannon arm behind the dish, and should stick at catcher with no issues defensively.  The switch-hitter makes solid contact from both sides of the plate, and (along with Wong), may be one of the best "pure hitters" in the class.  Plenty of room to fill out his frame, and projects to about average power going forward.  A very good complete package, but carries a fair amount of risk, as most high school catchers do.

LHP Daniel Norris  (Science Hill HS, Johnson City, TN)

In a very deep class, high school southpaws are the one thin area, with only Norris and CA lefty Henry Owens garnering serious first round consideration.  I've got Norris rated very highly, as he shows a lean, projectable frame and a terrific feel for pitching.  FB with good run, 90-96, a sloooow CB (74-76) with depth and bite, and the makings of a plus CH.  It will take time to tighten and refine the overall package, but his overall potential may rival or eclipse Bundy in the end.

SS Francisco Lindor  (Montverde HS, Montverde, FL)

This kid's been on my radar for over four years, and has lived up to his billing the entire time.  One of the few HS SSs who projects to stick at the position with an above-average glove.  Another switch-hitter, but looks much better from the right side to me.  Good bat speed, though he doesn't project for more than average power.  A natural leader on and off the field.  I don't generally like to make big league comparisons, but I can squint my eyes and see a potential Derek Jeter down the road, with a legitimate glove at SS.

RHP Archie Bradley  (Broken Arrow HS, Muskogee, OK)

Tall, strong-framed righty who can run it up to 95 with easy velocity.  Hard CU at 80-82.  CH lags far behind, but shows potential.  Has been linked to the Marlins in the past, but a strong two-way commitment to Oklahoma and some silly bonus demands may push him out of the picture altogether.

RHP Jose Fernandez  (Alonso HS, Tampa, FL)

Home state Cuban ex-pat is a bit of a dark horse pick, but has flashed some of the best stuff in the prep ranks at times.  At his best, he shows a plus FB with good tail (sits 93-95, up to 98), and a plus CB/slurve (80-82), along with good control and easy arm action.  SL and CH are show-me pitches at this point, but mid-to-top of rotation potential if he can refine.  Not a lot of projectability left (he'll be 19 on 07/31), but strong frame and present stuff are there.  Lights-out closer potential if he fails as a starter.

RHP Taylor Guerrieri  (Spring Valley HS, North Augusta, SC)

One of the fastest risers in the class, and almost a quintessential Marlins pick.  Ideal projectable frame with two plus pitches (FB 91-93, up to 96, hammer CB at 80-82) and the makings of a solid CH and CU.  Repeats his mechanics well and holds velocity deep into games.

OF Joshua Bell  (Jesuit College Prep, Dallas, TX)

I keep trying to find reasons to knock Bell down my list, but it's hard to knock the overall package.  Switch hitter shows a good approach from both sides, with plus power.  Average speed and an average arm mean he'll probably be a corner OF going forward, but the bat could be special.  However, he is represented by Boras Corp. which may take him out of consideration.  Too bad :(


Mod #2 will follow shortly, and focus on some of my favorite targets for the Marlins 2nd (#72 overall) and 3rd (#102 overall) picks.

Nationals Mock Draft Recap:

Continue reading this post »

This is the second and final MOD for the Nationals. I hope to use this up to and during the draft on Sunday to lay out and modify our draft strategy.

The original MOD is located here.

Continue reading this post »

Draft Philosophy:

The Nationals are an organization in dire need of high-ceiling, impact talent at all levels. No longer a ward of MLB, ownership under the Lerner group has loosened their purse strings to some degree, and the first priority must be to rebuild a nearly bereft farm system. With a new stadium opening next year, there is substantial pressure to identify and draft premium, fast-moving talent to improve the product on the field and keep the "new ballpark honeymoon" going on as long as possible. People will come, Ray...people will most definitely come. But not without some tangible improvement...Expect the Nationals to make a bold statement with this draft and generate some real excitement in the long term.

With this in mind, I plan to proceed with a "best player available" mentality. There are many holes to fill and it's important to bring in the best ballplayers available. I see no reason to draft by "need" - at worst, a premium 3rd basemen that is blocked by Zimmerman becomes a valuable trading chip.

With extra picks in hand, this should be a balanced draft. We can target college players that we hope will be ready to contribute within a year or two, but still afford to stockpile some blue-chip high-schoolers that will take longer to develop. Hitting and pitching are both organizational needs, so I hope to get a good mix of both.

In college players, I've mainly been scouting players for the traditional Division 1 powerhouses. There are definite gaps in my knowledge of players at lesser-known schools, so feel free to suggest anyone that deserves investigation. The emphasis for college players is on proven production. I'm not looking for projects out of a four-year school - I want ballplayers who know what they're doing and have the resume to prove it.

The JuCo emphasis is on production as well, with recognition of strength of competition. A guy putting up huge numbers at North Dakota Haircutter's JC is probably not going to translate to the next level.

High school players have to be approached based on projection and traditional scouting. Wild variances in competition and quality can add up to some very misleading stats.

The Nationals have eight picks in the first five rounds:

#6, 31, 49, 68, 71, 101, 131, 161

I'll start by profiling my favorite candidates at #6 overall. I'm assuming that Price, Wieters, Vitters, and Porcello will all be off the board at this point. If any of these four should fall, I'd likely snatch them up quickly.

Remaining candidates (in current order of preference):

Moustakas, Mike - SS - Chatsworth HS (CA)
* Rising meteorically this spring. Great contact skills, impressive power, and good overall athleticism. Expected to move to third base as he develops, but we'll find a place for him. I'm very close to ranking him over Vitters - he could be something special.

Mills, Beau - 3B - Lewis & Clark State College (ID)
* Season line - .462/.551/1.000, 31 HR, 106 RBI, 31/17 BB/K
Hard to argue with numbers like that. Some concern over strength of schedule at a NAIA school, but he put up two impressive seasons at Fresno State before academic woes forced him to Lewis & Clark. His bat is legit. His glove, however, is not, but perhaps he can be hidden at 1B or LF.

Moskos, Daniel - LHP - Clemson
* Very good since moving into the rotation. Good fastball, slider, and change. The best bet to help the big club in a hurry, but not a sexy pick. However, he could be in the bullpen this year or start next year in the rotation - that has a lot of value.

Beaven, Blake - RHP - Irving HS (TX)
* Tall righty can really bring it. Despite preaching against the trustworthiness of high school stats, I can't help but love this season line: 7-1, 0.13, 19 hits, 103/2 K/BB in 53 IP

Harvey, Matt - RHP - Fitch HS (CT)
* I rank him lower than most - all the tools are there, but he throws across his body in a way that puts a lot of torque on his shoulder. Could be cleaned up, but I still worry about higher injury risk. Special arm, though.

Detwiler, Ross - LHP - Missouri State
* Tall lefty who's stuff is still improving. Another relatively safe pick, he could make great strides very quickly.

Heyward, Jason - 1B/OF - Henry County HS (GA)
* His power potential is huge, and a much more complete package than Burgess. Will take a while to develop.

Parker, Jarrod - RHP - Norwell HS (IN)
* Another guy who really generating some buzz lately. His fastball can touch 98, and his slider may be the best I've seen all year.

Bumgarner, Madison - LHP - South Caldwell HS (NC)
* Perhaps the highest overall ceiling of any prep pitcher, but his secondary pitches are very, very far behind. Perhaps too much of a project at #6 overall.

Main, Michael - RHP - Deland HS (FL)
* The best athlete in the draft, IMHO. He's slid since last year due to a complicated and arm-heavy delivery that scares some scouts off. I'd still try him on the mound, but his bat and speed may work in the outfield if he can't refine his stuff.

I feel all of these guys at legitimate choices at #6, but I'd love some input to help narrow the field down.

I've rambled on long enough - I'll save the later rounds for...later :)

- birdtown