SB Nation User Blog: birdtown

Nationals Postmortem

birdtown — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 07:12:51 -0000

Nationals Mock Draft Recap:

Nationals: Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis Clark State

Nationals: Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas

Nationals: Neil Ramirez, RHP, Virginia HS

Nationals: Brian Rike, OF, Louisiana Tech

Nationals: Garrett Nash, SS, Utah HS

Nationals: Hunter Morris, OF, Alabama HS

Nationals: Duke Welker, RHP, Arkansas

Nationals: Justin Grimm, RHP, Virginia HS

I'm pretty happy with the results of this mock draft. As expected, I was able to target a healthy mix of college and high school talent that should bear immediate fruit for the National's bereft farm system. Mills, Ramirez, Rike, and Morris were all guys that I really hoped would fall to me. Even when I had to compromise after losing some of my primary targets, I feel the backup choices were pretty solid. Input before and during the draft was pretty minimal - As an Orioles fan, I'd love to hear what other Nationals fans think of this draft.

006) Beau Mills, 3B, Lewis Clark State

Overdraft? I don't think so. Mills offers an ideal combination of power and upside with a proven track record of success. I really believe in his bat - he has amazing bat speed, good plate coverage, and the best power stroke in this year's draft class. Although he could be a slightly-below-average defender at the hot corner with time, I'm essentially drafting him as a first baseman, where his average range but below-average arm profile better. He'll never challenge for a Gold Glove, but his bat will carry him at every level. I considered Parker, Heyward, and Main in this slot briefly, with only Parker even making me think twice.

031) Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas

Nevin Griffith was my guy here for weeks leading up to the draft. Knowing Mills was my guy at #6 overall, I wanted to follow up with the best prep pitcher remaining, and Griffith stood head-and-shoulders above the competition. I was devastated when John profiled him in a very positive manner on Saturday, and sure enough, the Giants plucked him off the board at #29 overall on Sunday. The next best preps on my board were Neil Ramirez, Kyle Blair, and Dan Duffy, and it just seemed too early to pull the trigger on any of these guys. My college back-ups were Schmidt and Maryland's Brett Cecil. Cecil has better stuff than Schmidt, but Schmidt has been more successful as a starter against tougher competition. He has great pitchability and a fierce competitive streak that should lead to excellent results.

049) Neil Ramirez, RHP, Virginia HS

Before the draft, I hoped to pluck Justin Jackson or Nick Noonan with this slot. Both of these targets went off the board in the first round, so I turned my attention to prep pitchers and the second tier of toolsy middle infielders (Soto, Nash, Thomas Jr.). Ramirez is the guy that really stuck in my head, despite his struggles this year. He still generates mid-90s heat with a loose, quick arm action, and his secondary pitches are inconsistent but very promising. As a local guy, I've seen him quite a bit in person and he seems like a natural fit for the Nationals. He's not as polished as he once seemed to be - he needs some quality coaching to repeat his delivery and build up stamina to keep his velocity late into games - but his upside is as high as any high school pitcher in the draft.

067) Brian Rike, OF, Louisiana Tech

Rike is a guy that I wanted all along. I originally planned to pop him with the #100 pick, but I got a little nervous when the more vaunted college power bats (Kulbacki, Desme, Donaldson) flew off the board late in the supplemental 1st. Rike's power numbers are misleading as Louisiana Tech plays in pretty cozy confines, but I'm more intrigued by his total package of talent. He makes hard, consistent contact to all fields with a sweet left-handed stroke. Combined with plus speed and instincts, plus arm strength, and good range in center field, the occasional Grady Sizemore comp is probably over-optimistic, but maybe not too far-fetched. He may profile better in right field down the road, but I'd make him play his way out of center first.

070) Garrett Nash, SS, Utah HS

Having landed a genuine 5-tool stud in Brian Rike, I felt compelled to find a similar talent in an athletic, toolsy middle infielder. I looked at Nash, Soto, and Thomas Jr. for pick #49 after Jackson and Noonan went early, and felt Nash represented a classic high-risk/high-reward choice. His main weapon is game-changing speed. With a 6.26 time in the 60, and an eye-popping 120-1 SB-CS ratio in his high school career, Nash will be a terror on the basepaths. His bat will take longer to develop, but his switch-hitting stroke and power potential are promising. I'm not sure if he has the instincts to stick at shortstop; second base may be a better fit down the road. FSU's Tony Thomas would have been a more conventional (safe) choice here, but I was afraid of skewing too heavily towards college players at this point. I don't have enough solid info on Soto - a lot of these PRBBA guys seem heavily touted, only to spend the next three years in Extended Spring Training.

100) Hunter Morris, OF, Alabama HS

Hunter is another guy I earmarked early on. I actually considered him as early as #67, but went with Rike there instead, figuring if I missed out on Morris at #100, I'd be able to pluck a similar talent from Alabama in D.J. Jones. Morris broke a bone in his hand late in the season, but has been an outstanding performer in high school, summer ball, and showcases for years. He has a combination of exceptional plate disclipline and power that is rare for his age. His other tools are average at best, and he'll get looks at SS and OF to find the best fit defensively. He reminds me a lot of Matt Sulentic from last year's draft - I just hope his bat has more staying power than Sulentic's has shown this year J

130) Duke Welker, RHP, Arkansas

The last of Arkansas' outstanding starting trio, Welker is a huge, fiery guy who's still learning his role as a power pitcher. His FB touches 96 with easy arm action, and his slider grades out as average with potential for more. He doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like, but he's put up respectable results against a tough schedule and should only get better. He'll feel right at home with Razorback teammate Nick Schmidt as well. A minor red flag is that he had labrum surgery two years ago, but he has not had any injury concerns since. I also considered Stetson's Corey Kluber and Charlotte's Adam Mills in this slot, but I just couldn't pass up a big, bad dude named Duke.

160) Justin Grimm, RHP, Virginia HS

You can never have enough pitching. With two solid college arms on board, I planned early on to devote this pick to a high-upside prep or junior college pick. Before the draft, I was really set on taking Central Arizona College star LHP, Australian transplant Josh Spence with this pick. 13-3, 0.71, 149k/15bb in 121 IP, 16 starts, 16 CG, 9 SHO. A few more scouting reports finally convinced me that his stuff was too fringy to play (even in Round 5), but he's still a guy I'll be following with great interest on June 7th. I suspect he won't even get drafted...Among the preps, this really came down to Grimm and Alabama RHP Austin Bailey. They have similar stuff, though Grimm is bigger and possibly more projectable. He's still a bit raw working his way back from a broken arm, but has shown a FB up to 94, a good changeup, and a rapidly improving curve. A somewhat local boy, and an anticipated quick sign.

I almost passed on Grimm to take a flier on LHP John Gast, who had TJ surgery in April. I believe that some team will in the real draft (ala Adenhart), pay him supp. 1st-2nd round money, and get him signed in time to rehab under Major League care. However, this probably won't happen in Rounds 1-5 (more likely 10-20), so I didn't do it here. It was very tempting, though...

Once again, thanks to John Sickels and everyone who participated in this Mock Draft for making it a blast. It's great to play Scouting Director for a day.

That's enough BS out of me. Comments? Criticism? GM job offers? Post `em here.

MOD II: Washington Nationals

birdtown — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 19:52:09 -0000

This is the second and final MOD for the Nationals. I hope to use this up to and during the draft on Sunday to lay out and modify our draft strategy.

The original MOD is located here.

With the signing of Max Scherzer, each of the Nationals draft picks from Rds. 2-5 has shifted forward one slot. We now choose at:

#6, 31, 49, 67, 70, 100, 130, 160

This will be a varied draft. While I want to choose the best player available in most cases, I hope to address different areas of the team and come away with at least one premium talent in each of the following areas:

College Pitchers
High School Pitchers
Corner Infielders
Middle Infielders
Outfielders
Catcher (...possibly)

I'm not a very big fan of drafting relievers in the first five rounds, unless I feel they have the repertoire to start in the future. Catcher, as well, is a position that may be neglected, as most of the premium talent will go early, and I'm not sure the ones that remain on the board will be worthy of a Round 1-5 pick.

What follows is my Top Ten lists for each positional breakdown outlined above. If I can come out of the draft with 8 of these 60 players in hand, I will dance with joy. Realistically, though, 4-5 of these would be a satisfactory haul. Feedback is greatly desired, especially if you feel I'm drastically over-or-under ranking particular players.

COLLEGE PITCHERS
Price, David
Detwiler, Ross
Moskos, Daniel
Cecil, Brett
Schmidt, Nick
Brackman, Andrew
Roemer, Wes
Savery, Joe
Banwart, Travis
Poreda, Aaron

HIGH SCHOOL PITCHERS
Porcello, Rick
Beaven, Blake
Parker, Jarrod
Main, Michael
Bumgarner, Madison
Smoker, Josh
Aumont, Phillippe
Harvey, Matt
Ramirez, Neil
Alderson, Tim

CORNER INFIELDERS
Vitters, Josh
Moustakas, Mike
Mills, Beau
Frazier, Todd
LaPorta, Matt
Dominguez, Matt
Mangini, Matt
Doolittle, Sean
Ahrens, Kevin
Mattair, Travis

MIDDLE INFIELDERS
Jackson, Justin
Noonan, Nick
Kozma, Peter
Horton, Josh
Soto, Neftali O.
Thomas Jr., Tony
Dent, Ryan
Cozart, Zach
Worth, Danny
West, Matt

OUTFIELDERS
Heyward, Jason
Borbon, Julio
Brown, Corey
Davis, Kentrail
Rike, Brian
Russell, Kyle
Burgess, Michael
Desme, Grant
Fairley, Wendell
Kulbacki, Kellen

CATCHERS
Wieters, Matt
Mesoraco, Devin
Arencibia, J.P.
Donaldson, Josh
Canham, Mitch
D'Arnaud, Travis
Grandal, Yasmani
Rupp, Cameron
Patterson, Kevin
Lucroy, Jon

Suggestions? Comments? Does anyone care about the Nationals at all?

MOD: Nationals

birdtown — Thu, 17 May 2007 02:17:44 -0000

Draft Philosophy:

The Nationals are an organization in dire need of high-ceiling, impact talent at all levels. No longer a ward of MLB, ownership under the Lerner group has loosened their purse strings to some degree, and the first priority must be to rebuild a nearly bereft farm system. With a new stadium opening next year, there is substantial pressure to identify and draft premium, fast-moving talent to improve the product on the field and keep the "new ballpark honeymoon" going on as long as possible. People will come, Ray...people will most definitely come. But not without some tangible improvement...Expect the Nationals to make a bold statement with this draft and generate some real excitement in the long term.

With this in mind, I plan to proceed with a "best player available" mentality. There are many holes to fill and it's important to bring in the best ballplayers available. I see no reason to draft by "need" - at worst, a premium 3rd basemen that is blocked by Zimmerman becomes a valuable trading chip.

With extra picks in hand, this should be a balanced draft. We can target college players that we hope will be ready to contribute within a year or two, but still afford to stockpile some blue-chip high-schoolers that will take longer to develop. Hitting and pitching are both organizational needs, so I hope to get a good mix of both.

In college players, I've mainly been scouting players for the traditional Division 1 powerhouses. There are definite gaps in my knowledge of players at lesser-known schools, so feel free to suggest anyone that deserves investigation. The emphasis for college players is on proven production. I'm not looking for projects out of a four-year school - I want ballplayers who know what they're doing and have the resume to prove it.

The JuCo emphasis is on production as well, with recognition of strength of competition. A guy putting up huge numbers at North Dakota Haircutter's JC is probably not going to translate to the next level.

High school players have to be approached based on projection and traditional scouting. Wild variances in competition and quality can add up to some very misleading stats.

The Nationals have eight picks in the first five rounds:

#6, 31, 49, 68, 71, 101, 131, 161

I'll start by profiling my favorite candidates at #6 overall. I'm assuming that Price, Wieters, Vitters, and Porcello will all be off the board at this point. If any of these four should fall, I'd likely snatch them up quickly.

Remaining candidates (in current order of preference):

Moustakas, Mike - SS - Chatsworth HS (CA)
* Rising meteorically this spring. Great contact skills, impressive power, and good overall athleticism. Expected to move to third base as he develops, but we'll find a place for him. I'm very close to ranking him over Vitters - he could be something special.

Mills, Beau - 3B - Lewis & Clark State College (ID)
* Season line - .462/.551/1.000, 31 HR, 106 RBI, 31/17 BB/K
Hard to argue with numbers like that. Some concern over strength of schedule at a NAIA school, but he put up two impressive seasons at Fresno State before academic woes forced him to Lewis & Clark. His bat is legit. His glove, however, is not, but perhaps he can be hidden at 1B or LF.

Moskos, Daniel - LHP - Clemson
* Very good since moving into the rotation. Good fastball, slider, and change. The best bet to help the big club in a hurry, but not a sexy pick. However, he could be in the bullpen this year or start next year in the rotation - that has a lot of value.

Beaven, Blake - RHP - Irving HS (TX)
* Tall righty can really bring it. Despite preaching against the trustworthiness of high school stats, I can't help but love this season line: 7-1, 0.13, 19 hits, 103/2 K/BB in 53 IP

Harvey, Matt - RHP - Fitch HS (CT)
* I rank him lower than most - all the tools are there, but he throws across his body in a way that puts a lot of torque on his shoulder. Could be cleaned up, but I still worry about higher injury risk. Special arm, though.

Detwiler, Ross - LHP - Missouri State
* Tall lefty who's stuff is still improving. Another relatively safe pick, he could make great strides very quickly.

Heyward, Jason - 1B/OF - Henry County HS (GA)
* His power potential is huge, and a much more complete package than Burgess. Will take a while to develop.

Parker, Jarrod - RHP - Norwell HS (IN)
* Another guy who really generating some buzz lately. His fastball can touch 98, and his slider may be the best I've seen all year.

Bumgarner, Madison - LHP - South Caldwell HS (NC)
* Perhaps the highest overall ceiling of any prep pitcher, but his secondary pitches are very, very far behind. Perhaps too much of a project at #6 overall.

Main, Michael - RHP - Deland HS (FL)
* The best athlete in the draft, IMHO. He's slid since last year due to a complicated and arm-heavy delivery that scares some scouts off. I'd still try him on the mound, but his bat and speed may work in the outfield if he can't refine his stuff.

I feel all of these guys at legitimate choices at #6, but I'd love some input to help narrow the field down.

I've rambled on long enough - I'll save the later rounds for...later :)

- birdtown