SB Nation User Blog: blalock84

Baserunning: Why have we lost runs due to this?

blalock84 — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 22:28:22 -0000

I found this snippet from Joey at BBTiA rather interesting:

MLB.com's Daniel Pauling recently lauded the Rangers' basestealing prowess thus far in 2009, which has manifested to the tune of the best team stolen-base percentage in the American League at 84.8 percent (67-for-79), but modern sabermetrics enable us to penetrate beyond the surface statistics and evaluate other aspects of baserunning -- and it is in this regard that Texas is not excelling, but rather floundering.

According to team baserunning statistics devised by former Baseball Prospectus author Dan Fox (now working as the Pirates' director of baseball systems development), that lofty basestealing success rate has amounted to a theoretical 4.53-run edge above what would be expected given the number and quality of the Rangers' basestealing opportunities (the best mark in baseball, and worth nearly half a win), but Texas actually grades out at minus-4.04 runs once the other team baserunning components are added to the mix. Why is this?

Basically, the Rangers have been a bottom-tier team in terms of generating additional runs by means of baserunning advancements on ground balls, fly balls and base hits; they have particularly struggled in that final category, grading out as the worst team in baseball in terms of advancing on base hits (minus-5.53 runs), and the baserunning numbers available at Bill James Online support this assertion, with Texas successfully advancing from first to third base just 10 times in 73 opportunities (or 13.7 percent of the time, the ballclub's worst seasonal mark since at least 2001) and from first base to home plate just 10 times in 45 opportunities, which is also the ballclub's lowest success rate since 2001.

I know i've loved our aggressiveness and effeciency when it comes to stealing bases. It seems like we have a well prepared, smart team when it comes to stealing bases, and while we arent the fastest team in the league, we have some guys that can move. However, the loss of advancement on hit balls is disturbing, we've lost over 8 runs in baserunning advancements on balls hit in play according to Bill James. And with the way we've failed miserably at scoring runners from 3rd with less than two outs, I think the runs lost b/c of not scoring from 1st on 2bs and 2nd on 1Bs is likely worse. Thats the difference in at least 2 wins, maybe more... and it could certaintly be the difference in a pennant. To me, I think a ton of this falls on the lack of aggressiveness by our 3b coach. I know there have been several times where i was pretty much screaming at the tv b/c we didnt send a guy home when he could have seemingly easily scored... Im not sure exactly where the entire disconnect is between the aggressiveness in stealing bases and the lack of aggressiveness in taking the extra base is, but I think a ton of it comes in the form of Dave Anderson, our 1st time 3B coach. I dont know much about the guy, but i do know that it certaintly seems like we have definitively lost runs because of his inability to send runners when they need to be sent.

I dont have a subscription to bill james online unfortunately, but id be very interested to compare these numbers to the #'s from last year to see if with nearly the same baserunners (Salty, Nelly, and Andrus for Vasquez, Laird and Bradley is probably most of the difference in runners) if we had better results on advancements on balls in play. I know from looking at Baseball Reference that Ian was one of the best at advancing last year. I dont necessarily want us to become uber aggressive like the Angels, but when you are losing that many runs b/c of lack of advancement on balls in play, you are being way too conservative. No matter what, those numbers are unacceptable and need to be improved upon,because this is something that seemingly could be improved upon simply by sitting down and having a chat with the team and especially with Dave Anderson.

Tommy Mendonca Signs

blalock84 — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 18:17:26 -0000

Tommy Mendonca Signs

I like this guy and i like this pick... I hope he can be a Mike's replacement at 3B in a few years.

Minors 6/26

blalock84 — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:07:37 -0000

Just to get this up there.

Full night of games tonight, here is what we got:

AZL - 9PM

Spokane - 9 PM Thompson - 2nd start

Hickory- 6PM Boscan - already throwing a shutout through 3 IP

Bakersfield - 9 Tatsuko - eh

Frisco - 7PM Beaven - fun, i always like watching his starts

OKC - 7PM Lizard - eh, hope to continue to see improvements from Max and Borbon

more words words words word sdfa dsf ads sa fs dfa dfas s s s fasdf

Minors 6/21

blalock84 — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 17:56:20 -0000

Lots and lots of games today. The Arizona Rookie League stats today, I really have no idea who is on that roster so it will be fun for me to read those box scores to find out who's on that squad.

A quick run-down of the games today:

ARZ 9PM: Alvarez? - Im guessing this is Richard Alvarez, I dont know alot about him, but i bet Shroom or someone else could tell you.

SPK 8PM: Matt Thompson - I like what i've heard about him over Fall instructs and spring training. It sounds like he has a nice CB/FB combo to start with, of course command will likely be the key for him.

Hickory 2PM Box: Perez/Brigham - the famous duo has been somewhat less dominant recently, although Perez's last outing could have been amazing if it hadnt been cut short. Even though Perez's ERA has crept up to 3, he's still showing incredible perpherial #'s

Bak 2:30 Box: Gomez - eh, this is the one team that i dont have much interest in following right now, besides the pitchers that is.

Frisco DH starting at 4 (first game): Nippert, Ballard - not really an exciting tandem, of course, Smithy and Moreland are igniting this Frisco offense again, and dont look now, but Lemon's avg has crept back up to .300 almost

OKC 4: Feliz - the star hopefully will shine today... Im also hoping for a 4 HR game today for Max and a reason for him to take CDs spot on the 25.

Also, Im a big US soccer fan, so feel free to chat about the Egypt-US game... I need to see something positive today from them.

Minors 6/15

blalock84 — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 20:45:33 -0000

Lots of minor league action, including a Hickory double header.

Here's what we got:

4:00- OKC Box - Corey - Bleh, at least we get to see if Maxram can continue to come out of his extended hitting slump. The main thing is for his power to come back, it could be that he's been hurt and thats been hindering his power, I hope thats the case and he proves in the second half that he is what he's always been, a ~.300/400/500 type hitter.

4:00- Hickory, Game One Box, Nam - Hmm, should be interesting if he can dominate as a starter like he has been as a RP. According to Announcer, Nam in the 1st working at 88 MPH, usually works in mid 80s

Game 2 Box, Hickory - Font- I hope Font can get his walks down.

7:00 - Frisco Box- Beavan! - Debut for C-Wun, against Midland, should be full of awesomeness. We shall see what Beavan does from here on out, by promoting him this early, I get the feeling that Beavan might have a shot at working his way into the 2010 rotation at some point next year... We shall see, he seems like the type of pitcher who can adjust to the Show better than most young pitchers, keeping his walk rate under 3 per nine will be the big thing for me to watch. Of course, Id love to see him striking out 8 or 9 guys per 9. But even if he doesnt ever get his stuff back to that level, I think we can reasonably expect him to become a solid mid-rotation guy with his exceptional command if it continues to play at the higher levels.

A quick comparison:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=porcel001ric

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=beavan001bla

Eh? both in high A, of course Beavan is in the Cal League likely inflating his ERA a little bit, but the Ks and BBs look suprisingly equal. Beavan can be a solid starting pitcher in the show even if he never strikes out that many guys

Oh yea,

9:00 - Bakersfield Box- Tim Murphy - Poor guy is getting shelled in the Cal LG. I wonder if its time to move him back to being a RP?

and if you havent seen this, BBTIA has a great, great breakdown of MiLB performances at the halfway point:

http://www.bbtia.com/home/2009/6/15/rangers-minor-league-review-the-60-game-mark.html

Really cool stuff, feel free to discuss that as well.

Benson to relief?

blalock84 — Mon, 04 May 2009 14:07:32 -0000

Benson to relief?

It looks like Benson will be getting the Jennings treatment soon. Probably for the best, as Benson can take Mendoza's spot as long reliever when he's deemed ready and we can leave Feldman in the rotation.

Jim Caple with Jeff Zimmerman

blalock84 — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:13:51 -0000

Jim Caple with Jeff Zimmerman

Caple talks to Zimmy about alot of good stuff including his time in France and how he made it to the majors the first time around. It sounds like he may have a real shot to make the majors once again, I have to wish him the best, even if its for the M's

ESPN Magazine's For Love of the Game piece with Mike and Ian

blalock84 — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 09:37:20 -0000

ESPN Magazine's For Love of the Game piece with Mike and Ian

I found this somewhat entertaining... Ian's always a pretty funny guy.

NFL DRAFT DAY 2 (Where the Cowboys pick)

blalock84 — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:03:58 -0000

Ok, so its early, but this is a big day for cowboys fans, 12 picks! wow thats alot for a whole draft let alone for one day. Im excited to see how it turns out. If you think about it, we landed two very productive players in the 4th and 5th round last year and I think we can expect to get at least 4 or 5 guys who will produce for us next year in the draft, and who knows what we'll get out of today.

Here are the guys i want us to pick:

Rashad Johnson: I heard Mel say that if he was an inch or two taller he'd be in round one. He's a gamer, I love watching him... This is the type of player you take in the 2nd or third round and you make every one else look silly for putting too much weight on measurables.

Stephen McGee: Im a homer, I hope we take him in the 7th round. Im not sure if he'll do anything in the NFL, but the guy is a great dude, not a nicer guy or a better leader on the field. He played in about the worst situation a QB could play in in College, he ran the ball 30 times in one game. Franchione killed his college career, I hope he has success in the pros.

A WR, I dont care who, Mike Thomas of Arizona might be a good pick, but i have no clue really...

I havent looked at it hard enough to know who else i want.

Hollands first seven Fastballs

blalock84 — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 01:17:45 -0000

...in the majors:

97, 96, 96, 97, 94, 97, 97

according to MLB Gameday.

I think the Rangers might have found a power lefty. Of course, He came in with the bases cheesed for his major league debut, thats a way to start a career. It will be interesting to see how long he lasts in the pen with Harrison absolutely struggling to get it going in the rotation.

W, wow w w w w w ww w ww ww w w w ww