I wanted to do a  comparison of games where Blake and Miller started against one another, to get an idea of the upgrade Portland may be getting in our starting PG (which I assume will be Miller).  This is to say nothing of the upgrade we are getting by Blake now being one of the best backups in the league, and head and shoulders above the Sergio/Bayless combo.  Here's the breakdown of games they played opposite each other as starters.

The trend, to the extent one is ascertainable from such a small sample, is that Miller's team "won" the matchup in all but one game.  And, in the one loss, it arguably had little to do with Miller, who outassisted Blake 11-2 and was basically even in other key categories.

It also shows the strengths that Miller has over Blake...namely, he outscores him, outassists him, outrebounds him, and gets to the line more often.  In short, everything but three point attempts favors Miller.  But, that's not MIller's game, nor does he try to force it to be, which is why his effective field goal percentage is so ridiculously high.In seven games, Miller put up TWO three pointers, and made one.  In other words, he knows his game and he plays his game...and in the matchups against Blake, his team won all but one.

KEY STATS:

Miller had 110 points to Blake's 67

Miller had 41 assists to Blake's 30

MIller had 31 rebounds to Blake's 15

Miller had 28 FT attempts to Blake's 5.

Head to head boxes (sorry for poor formatting) after the jump

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Okay, I am not OFF the KP bandwagon, but I have a thought to throw out today for the general conversation.

There has been speculation that KP is weak outside of draft day, and that is the reason for the "struggles" this summer.

There has been a theory that KP overvalues players, and that based on that, he is unable to make moves.

There has been a theory that KP undervalues other GMs, namely that he keeps calling them back with lopsided offers because his ego tells him that he is smarter than everyone else and eventually he's gonna catch a sucker.

I offer another possibility, one that I have not really seen debated:

KP doesn't like risks.

All of the moves for which the Blazers are given so much credit, while very very smart and in keeping with a plan, are calculated moves.  But as any poker player will tell you, you can't win just be taking the "safe" move every time.  Even if you play "perfect" poker, the guy who takes some risks and bluffs some hands is going to beat you in the end.


For the general discussion, can anyone point to a move KP has made that really involved risk?  Here are the moves (or desired moves) that, in my estimation, he is given the most credit for:

1. (desired move) Wanted to draft Chris Paul instead of Martell.  Well, duh, everyone knew that wasthe right move, and that we were stupid to be banking on Telfair, but management was just too stupid.  So, Kevin was just as smart as Blazersedge on that one.
2. (move) Trading Telfair and change to Boston for the Brandon Roy draft pick. High reward, no risk...TElfair was a bum, we knew it, KP didn't want him in the first place, and the draft pick was going to deliver a better chance at landinga  piece that would be in the rotation
3. (move) Trading for LA We traded UP in this scenario, and basically gave up nothing, so little risk, other than Tyrus Thomas blowing up. 
4. (not even a move) Winning the lottery and drafting Greg Oden.  This one probably isn't fair, as he isn't really given credit for winning the lottery by some skill, nevertheless, the Oden draft seems to factor into his "mystique" as if good things just happen when he's around.  We lost the lottery the year before, so the numbers just evened themselves out.
5. (move)  Getting Bayless at 11 in the draft for Jarret and 14.  Again, no risk there, really, as everyone wanted Jack gone and we wanted a PG.  It was fortuitous that Bayless dropped, but KP had nothing to do with that.  
6. (move)Dumping Zach.  Good move, but no risk, as everyone was ready for him to be gone. And, with Frye gone, it really has left no lasting impact other than to dump an unwanted player's salary, which cap space hasn't been used yet.
7. (move) Buying draft picks for cash and getting Sergio/Rudy.  Needless to say, this is the benefit of having a rich owner, and does not really involve risk, nor did getting Rudy to agree to come. 

So, I'm sure there are other moves that could be brought up, but what these moves above show me is that KP is smart, and that the talent evaluation abilities of Pritchard and the Blazers' staff are mostly strong.  But, if they are such good talent evaluators, they also have to be able to take risks based on those evaluations.  Give up someone you think has potential for someone you evaluate as having abilities that mesh with the team.  It may or will likely mean giving up a Rudy or a Bayless or a Batum, and those players might later "blow up," but such moves are necessary to move forward sometimes.  Sure, it's nice if every deal you make is lopsided in your favor because you outsmarted the other guy, but you just can't wait for the sure things, and hope to be successful.

In other words, for the Texas Hold'em poker players out there, if the only hands you're playing are Pocket Aces and A-K, and you're afraid to ever go all in unless you have a nut flush, with no pairs or suited connectors on the board you're probably not going to make it to the final table, as you'll be blinded out long before.

Agree?  Disagree?

It's got to be a blow to a team to lose a veteran leader, particularly one as beloved as Dikembe Mutombo, but all those "guilty' blazer fans who are saying they are really sorry that Dikembe went down but that it is a blessing because it will really help the Blazers are overlooking something:  Dikembe was not a big part of the Rockets plans this year at all.  Quick, answer this:  How many minutes do you think Dikembe played for the Rockets this season?  Don't run and check espn stats...just answer.

My guess is you'd be way off.  I know I was when I went to look it up.

The truth is, Deke only played 96.3 minutes ALL SEASON.  He averaged just under 11 minutes a game for nine games.  So, to suggest that it will be a big adjustment for the Rockets to play without him is just nonsense.  They played 73 games this season without him, and he only played 11 minutes a game when he DID play.

That said, I hope in his absence Portland finally starts to use Oden inside against the reserves to try to punch up the bench scoring, because we can't win this series with our bench getting outscored every game.  Just won't happen.

But, if we win this series, it WON'T be because Dikembe Mutombo was not available to the Rockets.

Dedicated readers of my projections already know this, but both Porland (63 percent accuscore projections) and San Antonio (70 percent Accuscore projection) are favored tonight, while Houston (40 percent Accuscore projection) is not.

Most of the projections so far have been based on 50/50 possibilities.  I wanted to take the likely outcome of each game (based on statistical predictions from Accuscore), and see what the likely outcomes are tonight, given the expected likelihood of each team winning or losing its game.  I am ignoring the fact that if Houston loses, it ups the likelihood that Denver doesn't care about the game, but that would make a better chance that Portland wins, so these are the worst possible percentages for the Blazers, based on reliable predictive models:

Chances for outcomes of Houston/San Antonio games:

42 percent chance that San Antonio wins and Houston loses

28 percent chance that both Houston and San Antonio win

18 percent chance that both Houston and San Antonio lose

12 percent chance that Houston wins and San Antonio loses

Extrapolating that to the Portland game (admitting that a Houston loss probably makes it even more likely that the Blazers win, because Denver clinches the second seed and doesn't care, but ignoring that for purposes of this analysis):

Chances for outcomes of all three games:

26.46 percent chance that SA wins/HOU loses, POR wins (4 seed, POR vs. HOU)

17.64 percent chance that all teams win (4 seed, Portland vs. SA)

15.54 percent chance that SA wins/HOU loses, POR loses (5 seed, POR @ HOU)

11.34 percent chance that HOU/SA lose, POR wins (3 seed, POR vs. NO)

10.36 chance that HOU/SA win, POR loses (5 seed, POR @ SA)

7.56 percent chance that HOU wins/SA loses, POR wins (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

6.66 percent chance that HOU/SA lose, POR loses (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

4.44 percent chance that HOU wins/SA loses, POR loses (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

Totalling them all up, given the predictions for how the games come out (instead of the 50/50 predictions that were made yesterday:

Portland's chances for playoff seeding outcomes are:

Seed/Team

36.30 percent chance of earning the 4 seed and playing San Antonio

26.46 percent chance of earning the 4 seed and playing Houston

15.54 percent chance of earning the 5 seed and playing Houston

11.34 percent chance of earning the 3 seed and playing New Orleans

10.36 percent chance of earning the 5 seed and playing San Antonio

Seed Only (74.1 percent chance of homecourt advantage)

62.76 percent chance of 4 seed

25.90 percent chance of 5 seed

11.34 percent chance of 3 seed

Opponent Only

46.66 percent chance of playing San Antonio

42 percent chance of playing Houston

11.34 percent chance of playing New Orleans

FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!!  As a sign of how far we've come, in my post on March 21, less than a month ago, only 22 PERCENT of Bedgers believed we would get to 54 wins!!!

Portland can still finish anywhere from 3-5.  Good news for those of us who have seen Portland v. Dallas this year, is that there is NO WAY mathematically that Portland plays Dallas in the first round of the playoffs.  However, there are still scenarios where Portland plays Houston, San Antonio and New Orleans. 

The BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO for Portland now would be to have BOTH Houston and San Antonio lose their games early in the night on Wednesday, allowing Denver to pull its starters (because Denver would be assured of the 2 seed with a Houston loss), assuring Portland the 3 seed and a matchup with New Orleans in the first round. 

If we have to root for ONE of the Houston/San Antonio combination to lose, it would be San Antonio, because if Houston loses and San Antonio wins, we end up facing Houston in the first round.  That''s the ONLY WAY Portland has to face Houston in the first round. 

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

There are three games remaining that involve the 2-7 teams:

• Houston at Dallas (projected win for Dallas)
• New Orleans at San Antonio (projected win for San Antonio)
• Denver at Portland (projected win for Portland)

To summarize all the stuff below, there are still EIGHT possibilities for how the remaining games that involve the 2-7 seeds come out, and if Portland wins, it is assured a four seed or better.

1. If Portland wins and San Antonio and Houston both fall, Portland earns the 3 seed and plays New Orleans (not a bad matchup considering their late season swoon).
2. If San Antonio wins, and Houston loses, Portland will play Houston in the first round, and homecourt in that series depends on whether the Blazers win or lose vs. Denver.
3. The other FIVE possibilities all have Portland playing San Antonio in the first round, and the only way that is NOT a homecourt situation for Portland is if San Antonio wins its final game and Portland loses.

IF PORTLAND WINS AND:

IF PORTLAND LOSES AND:

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FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!!

Everything has held to form the last couple days, other than the 8 seed Jazz losing again, but really, who cares about the Jazz at this point?

 SO FAR SO GOOD

Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy, just need to win out to get homecourt, and a loss by BOTH Houston and San Antonio gives Portland the THREE SEED.  I said THREE SEED!!!

Further, a loss by Denver tonight and a Houston loss in one of its final games gives Portland the 2 SEED if it wins out!!!

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds to projections:

(see above)

PAY NO ATTENTION TO OREGONLIVE OR ESPN PROJECTIONS TODAY:

Unless something changes with a division loss by Houston and an out-of division loss to Golden State by San Antonio, Houston holds the eventual tiebreaker over SA based on respective records vs. Western playoff teams (pay no attention to ESPN today, which only deals with "if the season ended today" tiebreakers, which won't apply when both Houston and SA have played an equal number of division games at the end of the season, or oregonlive.com, where Geoffrey Arnold was apparently drinking while putting out his playoff tiebreaker "explanation").  That means that the only way Portland loses out on homecourt, then is:

1) if it falls behind both Houston and San Antonio, or

2) if San Antonio wins the division and Portland and Houston end up tied behind SA, or

3) If all three teams lose a game, and San Antonio ends up tied for the division with Houston, but Houston loses another division game while San Antonio does not, then San Antonio wins the division via this first division tiebreaker and Houston wins the 4 seed by virtue of its tiebreaker over Portland.

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FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!!

PORTLAND WINS!  PORTLAND WINS!!!

Other than that, everything held to form the last couple days:

 SO FAR SO GOOD

Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy, just need to win out and have either Houston or San Antonio lose one to get homecourt, and a loss by BOTH Houston and San Antonio gives Portland the THREE SEED.  I said THREE SEED!!!

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds steady:
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR)	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NO	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

THIS JUST IN:

LA can't win in Portland.

Now, let's just hope Portland "takes care of business" in LA.

Unless something changes with a division loss by Houston and an out-of division loss by San Antonio, Houston holds the tiebreaker over SA based on respective records vs. Western playoff teams.  That means that the win last night, if everything were to end today, pushed Portland from number 5 to number 4.  The only way Portland loses out on homecourt, then is:

1) if it falls behind both Houston and San Antonio,

2) if San Antonio wins the division and Portland and Houston end up tied behind SA, or

3) If San Antonio ends up tied for the division with Houston, but Houston loses another division game while San Antonio does not, then San Antonio wins the division via this first division tiebreaker and Houston wins the 4 seed by virtue of its tiebreaker over Portland.

RESULTS:

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THIS JUST IN (SERIOUS KNOWLEDGE BOMB): 

FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!!

PORTLAND WINS!  PORTLAND WINS!!!

New Orleans got an "unexpected" loss to make up for the "unexpected win" they just got. 

SO FAR SO GOOD

Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy, just need one more loss by either San Antonio or Houston to get homecourt, and losses by both (and Blazers win out) gives the THREE SEED.  I said THREE SEED!!!

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland's dominating (for the last three quarters) win vs. San Antonio:

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds steady:
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR)	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NO	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34
OUT: PHOENIX	47-35

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland loss vs. San Antonio:

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA...WHATCHA LOOKING HERE FOR, SUCKAS!!!!

WE ALREADY BEAT SAN ANTONIO...BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!

GO BLAZERS!!!  BEAT LA!!!

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RESULTS:

Portland took care of business.

New Orleans got an "unexpected" win and Orlando and OKC let us down.

Tonight, it's all about the Blazers handling some "unexpected wins" business in SA!

TONIGHT'S KEY GAMES:

Portland @ San Antonio (upset special #1)

SO FAR SO GOOD

It is still possible to take homecourt advantage away from the Rockets and/or San Antonio with a win vs. San Antonio.  Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy (especially if Popp rests some starters!!!)

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland win vs. San Antonio:

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, all else holds steady:
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR)	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS (likely TB)	50-32
7. DALLAS	50-32
8. UTAH	48-34
OUT: PHOENIX	46-36

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland loss vs. San Antonio:

(for Portland loss, all other expected results (see above)

In other words, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Portland loses to SA, thus moving two losses behind them, and losing a tiebreaker, and still ends up anywhere other than the 5 seed.  Even if San Antonio were to lose THREE games to other teams, and I just don't see that happening if they beat Portland, they would still have the tiebreaker over Portland for the 4 seed. 

Given a loss to SA, the most plausible scenario that has Portland in the 4 seed is if Portland wins out and Houston loses TWO games, including one currently not projected for them, or Portland drops SA plus one, and Houston drops three games, including TWO not currently expected.  But, of course, in either of those last two scenarios, we have to face Houston in the first round.  Only winning in SA likely gets us anyone other than Houston in a matchup where we have homecourt advnatage.

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