SB Nation User Blog: blazer91

Losing Deke won't hurt the Rockets

blazer91 — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 20:51:12 -0000

It's got to be a blow to a team to lose a veteran leader, particularly one as beloved as Dikembe Mutombo, but all those "guilty' blazer fans who are saying they are really sorry that Dikembe went down but that it is a blessing because it will really help the Blazers are overlooking something: Dikembe was not a big part of the Rockets plans this year at all. Quick, answer this: How many minutes do you think Dikembe played for the Rockets this season? Don't run and check espn stats...just answer.

My guess is you'd be way off. I know I was when I went to look it up.

The truth is, Deke only played 96.3 minutes ALL SEASON. He averaged just under 11 minutes a game for nine games. So, to suggest that it will be a big adjustment for the Rockets to play without him is just nonsense. They played 73 games this season without him, and he only played 11 minutes a game when he DID play.

That said, I hope in his absence Portland finally starts to use Oden inside against the reserves to try to punch up the bench scoring, because we can't win this series with our bench getting outscored every game. Just won't happen.

But, if we win this series, it WON'T be because Dikembe Mutombo was not available to the Rockets.

QUASI-Taking Care of Business Update - Tax Day Edition (ALL THE PROJECTIONS for Playoff possibilites, based on Accuscore)

blazer91 — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 19:19:23 -0000

Dedicated readers of my projections already know this, but both Porland (63 percent accuscore projections) and San Antonio (70 percent Accuscore projection) are favored tonight, while Houston (40 percent Accuscore projection) is not.

Most of the projections so far have been based on 50/50 possibilities. I wanted to take the likely outcome of each game (based on statistical predictions from Accuscore), and see what the likely outcomes are tonight, given the expected likelihood of each team winning or losing its game. I am ignoring the fact that if Houston loses, it ups the likelihood that Denver doesn't care about the game, but that would make a better chance that Portland wins, so these are the worst possible percentages for the Blazers, based on reliable predictive models:

Chances for outcomes of Houston/San Antonio games:

42 percent chance that San Antonio wins and Houston loses

28 percent chance that both Houston and San Antonio win

18 percent chance that both Houston and San Antonio lose

12 percent chance that Houston wins and San Antonio loses

Extrapolating that to the Portland game (admitting that a Houston loss probably makes it even more likely that the Blazers win, because Denver clinches the second seed and doesn't care, but ignoring that for purposes of this analysis):

Chances for outcomes of all three games:

26.46 percent chance that SA wins/HOU loses, POR wins (4 seed, POR vs. HOU)

17.64 percent chance that all teams win (4 seed, Portland vs. SA)

15.54 percent chance that SA wins/HOU loses, POR loses (5 seed, POR @ HOU)

11.34 percent chance that HOU/SA lose, POR wins (3 seed, POR vs. NO)

10.36 chance that HOU/SA win, POR loses (5 seed, POR @ SA)

7.56 percent chance that HOU wins/SA loses, POR wins (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

6.66 percent chance that HOU/SA lose, POR loses (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

4.44 percent chance that HOU wins/SA loses, POR loses (4 seed, POR vs. SA)

Totalling them all up, given the predictions for how the games come out (instead of the 50/50 predictions that were made yesterday:

Portland's chances for playoff seeding outcomes are:

Seed/Team

36.30 percent chance of earning the 4 seed and playing San Antonio

26.46 percent chance of earning the 4 seed and playing Houston

15.54 percent chance of earning the 5 seed and playing Houston

11.34 percent chance of earning the 3 seed and playing New Orleans

10.36 percent chance of earning the 5 seed and playing San Antonio

Seed Only (74.1 percent chance of homecourt advantage)

62.76 percent chance of 4 seed

25.90 percent chance of 5 seed

11.34 percent chance of 3 seed

Opponent Only

46.66 percent chance of playing San Antonio

42 percent chance of playing Houston

11.34 percent chance of playing New Orleans

"Taking Care of Business" - FINAL UPDATE (All The Possibilities Edition)

blazer91 — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 15:22:25 -0000

FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!! As a sign of how far we've come, in my post on March 21, less than a month ago, only 22 PERCENT of Bedgers believed we would get to 54 wins!!!

Portland can still finish anywhere from 3-5. Good news for those of us who have seen Portland v. Dallas this year, is that there is NO WAY mathematically that Portland plays Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. However, there are still scenarios where Portland plays Houston, San Antonio and New Orleans.

The BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO for Portland now would be to have BOTH Houston and San Antonio lose their games early in the night on Wednesday, allowing Denver to pull its starters (because Denver would be assured of the 2 seed with a Houston loss), assuring Portland the 3 seed and a matchup with New Orleans in the first round.

If we have to root for ONE of the Houston/San Antonio combination to lose, it would be San Antonio, because if Houston loses and San Antonio wins, we end up facing Houston in the first round. That''s the ONLY WAY Portland has to face Houston in the first round.

CURRENT STANDINGS:
2. DENVER	54-27
3. HOUSTON (TB over SA/POR)	53-28
4. PORTLAND (TB over SA)	53-28
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-28
6. NEW ORLEAND (TB over DAL)	49-32
7. DALLAS	49-32
8. UTAH	48-33

*** * * PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS:**
2. DENVER (TBs over SA/POR)	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (Div. Winner)	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

There are three games remaining that involve the 2-7 teams:

Houston at Dallas (projected win for Dallas)
New Orleans at San Antonio (projected win for San Antonio)
Denver at Portland (projected win for Portland)

To summarize all the stuff below, there are still EIGHT possibilities for how the remaining games that involve the 2-7 seeds come out, and if Portland wins, it is assured a four seed or better.

If Portland wins and San Antonio and Houston both fall, Portland earns the 3 seed and plays New Orleans (not a bad matchup considering their late season swoon).
If San Antonio wins, and Houston loses, Portland will play Houston in the first round, and homecourt in that series depends on whether the Blazers win or lose vs. Denver.
The other FIVE possibilities all have Portland playing San Antonio in the first round, and the only way that is NOT a homecourt situation for Portland is if San Antonio wins its final game and Portland loses.

IF PORTLAND WINS AND:

SA/HOUSTON WIN
2. HOUSTON	54-28
3. DENVER	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
6. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
7. DALLAS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

SA WINS / HOUSTON LOSES
2. DENVER	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

HOUSTON WINS / SA LOSES
2. DENVER	54-28
3. HOUSTON	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	50-32
7. DALLAS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

HOUSTON/SA BOTH LOSE:
2. DENVER	54-28
3. PORTLAND	54-28
4. HOUSTON	53-29
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	50-32
7. DALLAS	50-32
8. UTAH	48-34

IF PORTLAND LOSES AND:

SA/HOUSTON WIN
2. DENVER	55-27
3. HOUSTON	54-28
4. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
5. PORTLAND	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
7. DALLAS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

SA WINS / HOUSTON LOSES
2. DENVER	55-27
3. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
4. HOUSTON	53-29
5. PORTLAND	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

HOUSTON WINS / SA LOSES
2. DENVER	55-27
3. HOUSTON	54-28
4. PORTLAND	53-29
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	50-32
7. DALLAS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

HOUSTON/SA BOTH LOSE:
2. DENVER	55-27
3. HOUSTON	53-29
4. PORTLAND	53-29
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	50-32
7. DALLAS	50-32
8. UTAH	48-34

DENVER

(current: 54-27) (projected: 54-28)

(2 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current: 53-28) (projected: 53-29)

(3 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L (EXPECTED loss)

PORTLAND

(current: 53-28) (projected: 54-28)

(4 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 Denver W (Denver may rest guys if they clinch)

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 53-28) (projected: 54-28)

(5 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W (already lost to NO TWICE)

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 49-32) (projected: 49-33)

(6 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (beat them TWICE already)

DALLAS

(current: 49-32) (projected: 50-32)

(7 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

UTAH

(current: 48-33) (projected: 48-34)

(8 seed)

Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L

Thanks to everyone who has followed this through since my first mid-season post predicting 54 wins. Wish it could have been one more win to take the division, but everything has gone pretty much the way it was "supposed" to go (per my almost infalilble predictions).

GO BLAZERS!!!

"Taking Care of Business" - 4/13 UPDATE (Two to go Edition)

blazer91 — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:34:19 -0000

FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!!

Everything has held to form the last couple days, other than the 8 seed Jazz losing again, but really, who cares about the Jazz at this point?

CURRENT STANDINGS:
2. DENVER	53-27
3. HOUSTON (eventual TB over SA)	52-28
4. PORTLAND	52-28
5. SAN ANTONIO	52-28
6. NO	49-31
7. DALLAS	48-32
8. UTAH	47-33

*** * * PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS:**
2. DENVER	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	47-35

SO FAR SO GOOD

Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy, just need to win out to get homecourt, and a loss by BOTH Houston and San Antonio gives Portland the THREE SEED. I said THREE SEED!!!

Further, a loss by Denver tonight and a Houston loss in one of its final games gives Portland the 2 SEED if it wins out!!!

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Denver drops tonight's game, and all else holds to projections:*
2. PORTLAND	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON	*53-29*
*5. DENVER*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if everyone wins out, except Denver (which loses @ Portland):*
2. HOUSTON	*54-28*
3. DENVER	*54-28*
4. PORTLAND	*54-28*
*5. SA*	*54-28*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if San Antonio drops ONE game somewhere, and all else holds to projections:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. PORTLAND	*54-28*
4. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*53-29*
*5. HOUSTON*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds to projections:

(see above)

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if San Antonio drops ONE game somewhere, and Houston wins its remaining EXPECTED LOSS game (vs. Dallas):*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*54-28*
4. PORTLAND	*54-28*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*53-29*
6. NO	*49-33*
*7. DALLAS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland loses ONE game, all else holds to projections:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland, Houston and San Antonio all drop a game (with both San Antonio's and Houston's losses being inside their division):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (TB over SA)	*53-29*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland, Houston and San Antonio all drop a game (with San Antonio's loss being to Golden State tonight, while Houston's loss is in the division (i.e., to either Dallas or NO)):
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (TB over both)	*53-29*
4. HOUSTON (TB over POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland loses ONE game, and San Antonio drops TWO games somewhere:*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*53-29*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*52-30*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

PAY NO ATTENTION TO OREGONLIVE OR ESPN PROJECTIONS TODAY:

Unless something changes with a division loss by Houston and an out-of division loss to Golden State by San Antonio, Houston holds the eventual tiebreaker over SA based on respective records vs. Western playoff teams (pay no attention to ESPN today, which only deals with "if the season ended today" tiebreakers, which won't apply when both Houston and SA have played an equal number of division games at the end of the season, or oregonlive.com, where Geoffrey Arnold was apparently drinking while putting out his playoff tiebreaker "explanation"). That means that the only way Portland loses out on homecourt, then is:

1) if it falls behind both Houston and San Antonio, or

2) if San Antonio wins the division and Portland and Houston end up tied behind SA, or

3) If all three teams lose a game, and San Antonio ends up tied for the division with Houston, but Houston loses another division game while San Antonio does not, then San Antonio wins the division via this first division tiebreaker and Houston wins the 4 seed by virtue of its tiebreaker over Portland.

KEY REMAINING GAMES BOLDED BELOW

DENVER

(current: 53-27) (projected: 54-28)

(2 seed)

Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W (NEED TO BE A SAC. FAN!!!)
Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current: 52-28) (projected: 53-29)

(3 seed)

Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L (EXPECTED loss)

PORTLAND

(current: 52-28) (projected: 54-28)

(4 seed) (technically 5 today, but not really)

Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
Wed, Apr 15 Denver W (Denver may rest guys if they clinch)

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 52-28) (projected: 54-28)

(5 seed) (technically 3 today, but not really)

Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W (already lost to NO TWICE)

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 49-31) (projected: 49-33)

(6 seed)

Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L (beat them ONCE already)
Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (beat them TWICE already)

DALLAS

(current: 48-32) (projected: 50-32)

(7 seed)

Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W
Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

UTAH

(current: 47-33) (projected: 48-34)

(8 seed)

Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L

If Portland wins out, the 4 spot is ours. Simple enough, right?

That said, we are HUGE New Orleans fans at this point, as they cannot catch Portland for the five seed. On the other hand, New Orleans plays both Houston and San Antonio, and has had some success against those clubs. NO Winning its game vs. San Antonio would help Portland a lot, as it means Portland would have homecourt in the first round, even if it drops a game. NO wins vs. BOTH SA and Houston (unlikely), and I'll take Chris Paul out to dinner.

Wish list now? New Orleans beats San Antonio or BOTH of the Texas teams, and Sacramento SOMEHOW, SOME WAY, by SOME MIRACLE. beats Denver on Monday, setting up a showdown for the Division on Wednesday if Portland take care of its business with OKC tonight. Hey, stranger things have ALREADY happened!

"Taking Care of Business" - 4/10 UPDATE (We Beat LA (again) Edition)

blazer91 — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 05:23:37 -0000

FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!!

PORTLAND WINS! PORTLAND WINS!!!

Other than that, everything held to form the last couple days:

CURRENT STANDINGS:
2. DENVER	53-27
3. HOUSTON (TB over SA)	52-28
4. PORTLAND	51-28
5. SAN ANTONIO	51-28
6. NO (TB over DAL)	48-31
7. DALLAS	48-31
8. UTAH	47-32

*** * * PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS:**
2. DENVER	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

SO FAR SO GOOD

Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy, just need to win out and have either Houston or San Antonio lose one to get homecourt, and a loss by BOTH Houston and San Antonio gives Portland the THREE SEED. I said THREE SEED!!!

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if San Antonio drops ONE game somewhere, and all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. PORTLAND	*54-28*
4. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*53-29*
*5. HOUSTON*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR) 54-28

3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28

4. PORTLAND 54-28

5. HOUSTON 53-29

6. DALLAS 50-32

7. NO 49-33

8. UTAH 48-34

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if San Antonio drops ONE game somewhere, and Houston wins its remaining EXPECTED LOSS game (vs. Dallas):*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*54-28*
4. PORTLAND	*54-28*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*53-29*
6. NO	*49-33*
*7. DALLAS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland loses ONE game, all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland, Houston and San Antonio all drop a game (with both San Antonio's and Houston's losses being inside their division, or both outside their division, or if Houston's loss is out of division, while San Antonio's is in the division):
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (TB over SA)	*53-29*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland, Houston and San Antonio all drop a game (with San Antonio's loss being outside its Division, while Houston's loss is in the division):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (TB over both)	*53-29*
4. HOUSTON (TB over POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland loses ONE game, and San Antonio drops TWO games somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season and Duncan hobbled?):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*53-29*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*52-30*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

THIS JUST IN:

LA can't win in Portland.

Now, let's just hope Portland "takes care of business" in LA.

1) if it falls behind both Houston and San Antonio,

2) if San Antonio wins the division and Portland and Houston end up tied behind SA, or

3) If San Antonio ends up tied for the division with Houston, but Houston loses another division game while San Antonio does not, then San Antonio wins the division via this first division tiebreaker and Houston wins the 4 seed by virtue of its tiebreaker over Portland.

RESULTS:

KEY REMAINING GAMES BOLDED BELOW

DENVER

(current: 53-27) (projected: 54-28)

(2 seed)

Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W (NEED TO BE A SAC. FAN!!!)
Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current: 52-28) (projected: 53-29)

(3 seed)

Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L (EXPECTED loss)

PORTLAND

(current: 51-28) (projected: 54-28)

(4 seed)

Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W (trap game - Clips won once in RG)
Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
Wed, Apr 15 Denver W (Denver may rest guys if they clinch)

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 51-28) (projected: 54-28)

(5 seed)

Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W (SAC played 'em tight earlier)
Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W (already lost to NO TWICE)

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 48-31) (projected: 49-33)

(6 seed)

Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L (beat them ONCE already)
Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (beat them TWICE already)

DALLAS

(current: 48-31) (projected: 50-32)

(7 seed)

Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W
Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

UTAH

(current: 47-32) (projected: 49-33)

(8 seed)

Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W
Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L

If Portland wins out, the 4 spot is ours. Simple enough, right?

That said, we are HUGE New Orleans fans at this point, as they cannot catch Portland, unless Portland loses out, which AIN'T happenin'. On the other hand, New Orleans plays both Houston and San Antonio, and has had some success against those clubs. NO Winning its game vs. San Antonio would help Portland a lot, as it means Portland would have homecourt in the first round, even if it drops a game. NO wins vs. BOTH SA and Houston (unlikely), and I'll take Chris Paul out to dinner.

Wish list now? New Orleans beats San Antonio or BOTH of the Texas teams, and Sacramento SOMEHOW, SOME WAY, by SOME MIRACLE. beats Denver on Monday, setting up a showdown for the Division on Wednesday if Portland wins its next two games. Hey, stranger things have ALREADY happened!

Taking Care of Business (SECOND Post Spurs Win Update) - SERIOUS KNOWLEDGE BOMB ALERT

blazer91 — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 02:25:24 -0000

THIS JUST IN (SERIOUS KNOWLEDGE BOMB):

Unless something changes with a division loss by Houston and an out-of division loss by San Antonio, Houston holds the tiebreaker over SA based on respective records vs. Western playoff teams. That means that the win last night, if everything were to end today, pushed Portland from number 5 to number 4. The only way Portland loses out on homecourt, then is:

1) if it falls behind both Houston and San Antonio,

2) if San Antonio wins the division and Portland and Houston end up tied behind SA, or

3) If San Antonio ends up tied for the division with Houston, but Houston loses another division game while San Antonio does not, then San Antonio wins the division via this first division tiebreaker and Houston wins the 4 seed by virtue of its tiebreaker over Portland.

RESULTS:

FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!!

PORTLAND WINS! PORTLAND WINS!!!

New Orleans got an "unexpected" loss to make up for the "unexpected win" they just got.

CURRENT STANDINGS:
2. DENVER	52-26
3. HOUSTON (TB over SA)	50-28
4. PORTLAND	50-28
5. SAN ANTONIO	50-28
6. NEW ORLEANS	48-30
7. DALLAS	47-31
8. UTAH	47-31
OUT: PHOENIX	42-35

*** * * PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS:**
2. DENVER	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34
OUT: PHOENIX	47-35

SO FAR SO GOOD

Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy, just need one more loss by either San Antonio or Houston to get homecourt, and losses by both (and Blazers win out) gives the THREE SEED. I said THREE SEED!!!

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland's dominating (for the last three quarters) win vs. San Antonio:

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if San Antonio drops ONE game somewhere, and all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. PORTLAND	*54-28*
4. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*53-29*
*5. HOUSTON*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*47-35*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR) 54-28

3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28

4. PORTLAND 54-28

5. HOUSTON 53-29

6. DALLAS 50-32

7. NO 49-33

8. UTAH 48-34

OUT: PHOENIX

47-35

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if San Antonio drops ONE game somewhere, and Houston wins its remaining EXPECTED LOSS game (vs. Dallas):*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*54-28*
4. PORTLAND	*54-28*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*47-35*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland loses ONE game, all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*47-35*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland, Houston and San Antonio all drop a game (with both San Antonio's and Houston's losses being inside their division, or both outside their division, or if Houston's loss is out of division, while San Antonio's is in the division):
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (TB over SA)	*53-29*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*47-35*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland, Houston and San Antonio all drop a game (with San Antonio's loss being outside its Division, while Houston's loss is in the division):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (TB over both)	*53-29*
4. HOUSTON (TB over POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*47-35*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland loses ONE game, and San Antonio drops TWO games somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season and Duncan hobbled?):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*53-29*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*52-30*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland loss vs. San Antonio:

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA...WHATCHA LOOKING HERE FOR, SUCKAS!!!!

WE ALREADY BEAT SAN ANTONIO...BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!

GO BLAZERS!!! BEAT LA!!!

KEY REMAINING GAMES WHERE UNEXPECTED RESULTS COULD HELP THE BLAZERS LISTED BELOW

As I was responding to a post below, I realized that bolding key games where we DON'T WANT THE EXPECTED "TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS" TO HAPPEN might give us more games of interest, so I have bolded games for each team in the hunt where rooting for a "non-traditional" outcome should help the Blazers:

DENVER

(current: 53-26) (projected: 54-28)

(2 seed)

Thu, Apr 9 at LA Lakers L
Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W
Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 50-28) (projected: 54-28)

(3 seed)

Fri, Apr 10 Utah W
Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W
Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W

PORTLAND

(current: 50-28) (projected: 54-28)

(4 seed)

Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers W
Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W
Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
Wed, Apr 15 Denver W

HOUSTON

(current: 50-28) (projected: 53-29)

(5 seed)

Thu, Apr 9 at Sacramento W
Fri, Apr 10 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L

DALLAS

(current: 47-31) (projected: 50-32)

(6 seed)

Fri, Apr 10 New Orleans W (lost to them TWICE already)
Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 48-30) (projected: 49-33)

(7 seed)

Fri, Apr 10 at Dallas L (beat them TWICE already)
Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L
Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (possible W if Spurs rest guys?)

UTAH

(current: 47-31) (projected: 49-33)

(8 seed)

Fri, Apr 10 at San Antonio L
Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W (2d of back-to-back)
Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L (possible W if Lakers rest guys?)

PHOENIX

(current: 43-35) (projected: 47-35)

(OUT)

Fri, Apr 10 at Memphis W
Sat, Apr 11 at Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
Mon, Apr 13 Memphis W
Wed, Apr 15 Golden State W

Wish list now? One loss for either the Rockets (this is expected) or Spurs (this is not technically expected, but with Manu's injury and Tim Duncan hobbling, probably should be), or both. Simple enough, right?

"Taking Care of Business" - 4/8 UPDATE (Do it...Do it NOW)

blazer91 — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 16:20:18 -0000

RESULTS:

Portland took care of business.

New Orleans got an "unexpected" win and Orlando and OKC let us down.

Tonight, it's all about the Blazers handling some "unexpected wins" business in SA!

TONIGHT'S KEY GAMES:

Portland @ San Antonio (upset special #1)

CURRENT STANDINGS:
2. DENVER	52-26
3. SAN ANTONIO	50-27
4. HOUSTON	50-28
5. PORTLAND	49-28
6. NEW ORLEANS	48-29
7. UTAH	46-31
8. DALLAS	45-31
OUT: PHOENIX	42-35

*** * * PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS:**
2. SAN ANTONIO	55-27
3. DENVER	54-28
4. HOUSTON (tiebreak v POR)	53-29
5. PORTLAND	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS (likely TB v. DAL)	50-32
7. DALLAS	50-32
8. UTAH	48-34
OUT: PHOENIX	46-36

SO FAR SO GOOD

It is still possible to take homecourt advantage away from the Rockets and/or San Antonio with a win vs. San Antonio. Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy (especially if Popp rests some starters!!!)

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland win vs. San Antonio:

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR) 54-28

3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28

4. PORTLAND 54-28

5. HOUSTON 53-29

6. NEW ORLEANS (likely TB) 50-32

7. DALLAS 50-32

8. UTAH 48-34

OUT: PHOENIX

46-36

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. PORTLAND	*54-28*
4. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*53-29*
*5. HOUSTON*	*53-29*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and Houston wins out, too:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*54-28*
4. PORTLAND	*54-28*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*53-29*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, and San Antonio also drops an OTHER game somewhere:*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (TB over HOU)	*53-29*
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker over POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, and San Antonio drops two OTHER game somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*53-29*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*52-30*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland loss vs. San Antonio:

(for Portland loss, all other expected results (see above)

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and Houston loses an unexpected game:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO	*54-28*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. HOUSTON*	*52-30*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and Houston wins out, too:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (wins TB v. HOU)	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON	*54-28*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, but wins out, and San Antonio drops two OTHER games somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (wins TB v. HOU)	*53-29*
4. HOUSTON (wins TB v. POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, and San Antonio drops two OTHER games somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*53-29*
4. HOUSTON	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*52-30*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, but wins out, and San Antonio drops THREE OTHER games somewhere (somewhat difficult to imagine, even WITH the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON	*53-29*
4. SAN ANTONIO (TB v. POR)	*52-30*
*5. PORTLAND*	*52-30*
6. NEW ORLEANS	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

In other words, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Portland loses to SA, thus moving two losses behind them, and losing a tiebreaker, and still ends up anywhere other than the 5 seed. Even if San Antonio were to lose THREE games to other teams, and I just don't see that happening if they beat Portland, they would still have the tiebreaker over Portland for the 4 seed.

Given a loss to SA, the most plausible scenario that has Portland in the 4 seed is if Portland wins out and Houston loses TWO games, including one currently not projected for them, or Portland drops SA plus one, and Houston drops three games, including TWO not currently expected. But, of course, in either of those last two scenarios, we have to face Houston in the first round. Only winning in SA likely gets us anyone other than Houston in a matchup where we have homecourt advnatage.

KEY REMAINING GAMES WHERE UNEXPECTED RESULTS COULD HELP THE BLAZERS LISTED BELOW

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 50-27) (projected: 55-27)

(2 seed)

Wed, Apr 8 Portland W (lost TWICE to POR already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better record in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
Fri, Apr 10 Utah W
Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W
Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W

DENVER

(current: 52-26) (projected: 54-28)

(3 seed)

Wed, Apr 8 Oklahoma City W
Thu, Apr 9 at LA Lakers L
Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W
Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current: 50-28) (projected: 53-29)

(wins tiebreaker with POR, earning the 4 seed)

Thu, Apr 9 at Sacramento W
Fri, Apr 10 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L

PORTLAND

(current: 49-28) (projected: 53-29)

(loses tiebreaker to HOU, meaning a likely 5 seed)

Wed, Apr 8 at San Antonio L (beat them TWICE already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better ercord in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers W
Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W
Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
Wed, Apr 15 Denver W

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 48-29) (projected: 50-32)

(6th seed) (likely tiebreaker over Dallas)

Wed, Apr 8 Phoenix W (2d of back-to-back)
Fri, Apr 10 at Dallas L (beat them TWICE already)
Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L
Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (possible W if Spurs rest guys?)

DALLAS

(current: 46-31) (projected: 50-32)

(7th seed)

Wed, Apr 8 Utah W (lost to them TWICE already)
Fri, Apr 10 New Orleans W (lost to them TWICE already)
Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

UTAH

(current: 47-30) (projected: 49-33)

(8 seed)

Wed, Apr 8 at Dallas L (beat them TWICE already)
Fri, Apr 10 at San Antonio L
Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W (2d of back-to-back)
Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L (possible W if Lakers rest guys?)

PHOENIX

(current: 42-35) (projected: 46-36)

(OUT)

Wed, Apr 8 at New Orleans L (2d of back-to-back for NO)
Fri, Apr 10 at Memphis W
Sat, Apr 11 at Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
Mon, Apr 13 Memphis W
Wed, Apr 15 Golden State W

Recent events and the upcoming schedule have really pushed Utah, Dallas and NO into a tier behind Houston and Portland. Phoenix is just a spoiler at this point, unless Dallas or Utah continues to falter and Phoenix wins out.

What that means is, we continue to hope for those teams to get wins against Houston, San Antonio or Denver to help us out, but other than that, it really becomes Portland taking care of ITS business to earn homecourt...beat San Antonio, and you really turn the race around, because you have the tiebreaker, so it's really a FOUR game swing depending on whether we win at San Antonio. How so? If we win, we get a tiebreaker on them, plus a game gained in the standings. If we lose, we fall a game behind in the standings and lose the tiebreaker, too. So, it's the difference between being TWO up or TWO down...no pressure though, Portland, no pressure.

Putting that aside, we can still:

BEAT SAN ANTONIO!!!

Of Course, God helps those who help themselves, so the best thing Portland could do for itself would be to steal one of the Texas games, and hold serve on the other "should wins," as Portland would gain a game on San Antonio with a win, and would earn the tiebreaker based on the head-to head records if Houston passes San Antonio and wins the division.

ROOT FOR ADDED LOSSES FOR DENVER, HOUSTON OR SAN ANTONIO IN BOLDED GAMES ABOVE, AND/OR PRAY FOR MORE LIGHTNING TO STRIKE THE TEAMS ABOVE US WITH UPSET LOSSES.

BOTTOM LINE:

What we as Blazers fans should be rooting for (and that's really the question here, right?) in any game between playoff contenders in the West is that the third tier guys (or spoiler Phoenix) win a couple against the first tier guys, specifically, San Antonio, Denver, and Houston. Other than that, everything going to plan means we get a four or five seed, and us beating San Antonio likely gives us homecourt in the First Round.

All clear now?

"Taking Care of Business" - 4/6 UPDATE (Keep Hope Alive edition)

blazer91 — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 16:03:38 -0000

CURRENT STANDINGS:
2. DENVER	52-26
3. SAN ANTONIO	49-27
4. HOUSTON	49-28
5. PORTLAND	48-28
6. NEW ORLEANS	47-29
7. UTAH	46-31
8. DALLAS	45-31
OUT: PHOENIX	42-35

*** * * PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS:**
2. SAN ANTONIO	55-27
3. DENVER	54-28
4. HOUSTON (tiebreak v POR)	53-29
5. PORTLAND	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34
OUT: PHOENIX	46-36

SO FAR SO GOOD

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland win vs. San Antonio:

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR) 54-28

3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28

4. PORTLAND 54-28

5. HOUSTON 53-29

6. DALLAS 50-32

7. NEW ORLEANS 49-33

8. UTAH 48-34

OUT: PHOENIX

46-36

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. PORTLAND	*54-28*
4. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*53-29*
*5. HOUSTON*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and Houston wins out, too:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. POR)	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*54-28*
4. PORTLAND	*54-28*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, and San Antonio also drops an OTHER game somewhere:*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (TB over HOU)	*53-29*
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker over POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, and San Antonio drops two OTHER game somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON (division winner)	*53-29*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. SAN ANTONIO*	*52-30*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland loss vs. San Antonio:

(for Portland loss, all other expected results (see above)

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON (tiebreaker v. POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and Houston loses an unexpected game:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO	*54-28*
4. PORTLAND	*53-29*
*5. HOUSTON*	*52-30*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, San Antonio drops an OTHER game somewhere, and Houston wins out, too:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (wins TB v. HOU)	*54-28*
4. HOUSTON	*54-28*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, but wins out, and San Antonio drops two OTHER games somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (wins TB v. HOU)	*53-29*
4. HOUSTON (wins TB v. POR)	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, loses one OTHER game, and San Antonio drops two OTHER games somewhere (plausible with the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):*
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*53-29*
4. HOUSTON	*53-29*
*5. PORTLAND*	*52-30*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland falls to San Antonio, but wins out, and San Antonio drops THREE OTHER games somewhere (somewhat difficult to imagine, even WITH the emotional blow of MANU out for the season?):
2. DENVER	*54-28*
3. HOUSTON	*53-29*
4. SAN ANTONIO (TB v. POR)	*52-30*
*5. PORTLAND*	*52-30*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NEW ORLEANS*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

RESULTS:

Portland, falls, but New Orleans drops an unexpected game, which is the best thing that happened this weekend, besides Portland clinching, which we knew they would anyway. Portland can still move past Houston and secure Homecourt with a win vs. San Antonio and everything else holding form.

KEY REMAINING GAMES WHERE UNEXPECTED RESULTS COULD HELP THE BLAZERS LISTED BELOW

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 49-27) (projected: 55-27)

(2 seed)

Tue, Apr 7 at Oklahoma City W (lost to OKC already AT HOME)
Wed, Apr 8 Portland W (lost TWICE to POR already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better record in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
Fri, Apr 10 Utah W
Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W
Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W

DENVER

(current: 52-26) (projected: 54-28)

(3 seed)

Wed, Apr 8 Oklahoma City W
Thu, Apr 9 at LA Lakers L
Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W
Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current: 49-28) (projected: 53-29)

(wins tiebreaker with POR, earning the 4 seed)

Tue, Apr 7 Orlando W (not sure why, except Orlando is good)
Thu, Apr 9 at Sacramento W
Fri, Apr 10 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L

PORTLAND

(current: 48-28) (projected: 53-29)

(loses tiebreaker to HOU, meaning a likely 5 seed)

Tue, Apr 7 at Memphis W
Wed, Apr 8 at San Antonio L (beat them TWICE already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better ercord in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers W
Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W
Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
Wed, Apr 15 Denver W

DALLAS

(current: 46-31) (projected: 50-32)

(6 seed)

Wed, Apr 8 Utah W (lost to them TWICE already)
Fri, Apr 10 New Orleans W (lost to them TWICE already)
Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 47-29) (projected: 49-33)

(7 seed)

Tue, Apr 7 at Miami L
Wed, Apr 8 Phoenix W (2d of back-to-back)
Fri, Apr 10 at Dallas L (beat them TWICE already)
Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L
Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (possible W if Spurs rest guys?)

UTAH

(current: 47-30) (projected: 49-33)

(8 seed)

Wed, Apr 8 at Dallas L (beat them TWICE already)
Fri, Apr 10 at San Antonio L
Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W (2d of back-to-back)
Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L (possible W if Lakers rest guys?)

PHOENIX

(current: 42-35) (projected: 46-36)

(OUT)

Wed, Apr 8 at New Orleans L (2d of back-to-back for NO)
Fri, Apr 10 at Memphis W
Sat, Apr 11 at Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
Mon, Apr 13 Memphis W
Wed, Apr 15 Golden State W

Putting that aside, we can still:

BEAT SAN ANTONIO!!!

ROOT FOR ADDED LOSSES FOR DENVER, HOUSTON OR SAN ANTONIO IN BOLDED GAMES ABOVE, AND/OR PRAY FOR MORE LIGHTNING TO STRIKE THE TEAMS ABOVE US WITH UPSET LOSSES.

BOTTOM LINE:

All clear now?

"Taking Care of Business" - 4/3 UPDATE (Breathing room is good edition)

blazer91 — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 15:42:01 -0000

CURRENT STANDINGS:
2. DENVER	50-26
3. SAN ANTONIO	49-26
4. PORTLAND	48-27
5. HOUSTON	48-28
6. NEW ORLEANS	47-28
7. UTAH	46-30
8. DALLAS	45-31
OUT: PHOENIX	42-34

***** PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS:**
2. SAN ANTONIO	55-27
3. DENVER	54-28
4. HOUSTON (tiebreak v POR)	53-29
5. PORTLAND	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS (tiebreak v DAL)	50-32
7. DALLAS	50-32
8. UTAH	48-34
OUT: PHOENIX	46-36

SO FAR SO GOOD

Now the stage is set to take homecourt advantage away from the Rockets and/or San Antonio. Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy:

Here's how the possibilities shake out with Portland wins in Texas:

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats Houston and San Antonio, all else holds steady:*
*2. PORTLAND*	*55-27*
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*54-28*
*4. DENVER*	*54-28*
*5. HOUSTON*	*52-30*
6. NEW ORLEANS (tiebreak v DAL)	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats San Antonio, all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA) 54-28

3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28

4. PORTLAND 54-28

5. HOUSTON 53-29

6. NEW ORLEANS (tiebreak v DAL) 50-32

7. DALLAS 50-32

8. UTAH 48-34

OUT: PHOENIX

46-36

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats Houston, all else holds steady:

2. SAN ANTONIO 55-27

3. DENVER (tiebreaker v POR) 54-28

4. PORTLAND 54-28

5. HOUSTON 52-30

6. NEW ORLEANS (tiebreak v DAL) 50-32

7. DALLAS 50-32

8. UTAH 48-34

OUT: PHOENIX

46-36

With those matchups, I'm not sure I WANT to be number two in the West. While it means homecourt in the second round, it also means playing Dallas in the first round, and I dislike that matchup intensely.

RESULTS FROM TONIGHT'S KEY ACTION:

Portland beats OKC (NICE...VERY NICE)

San Antonio beats Indiana (Spurs get expected win)

New Orleans FALLS to Golden State (Upset special comes through)

Houston FALLS to (some team from north of San Diego and South of San Francisco) (Home team handles business)

The Houston game was an expected loss for them. New Orleans helped out and lost its game, as did the true third tier teams, Utah and Dallas. Phoenix stayed alive.

SATURDAY'S KEY ACTION:

Well, Denver plays at LA Clippers, but that only counts as a key game if you think the lightning from tonight could strike twice and hit Denver to morrow. I wouldn't bet on it, but everyone by now knows that's what it owuld take for Portland to catch Denver in the division race...some lightning. Stranger things have happened (tonight even) (TWICE even). Even if the Clippers don't win, wearing out Denver so that they have to play Minnesota with tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back would be helpful. In short, hope for a Clipper win or a quadruple overtime game.

KEY GAMES WHERE UNEXPECTED RESULTS COULD HELP THE BLAZERS LISTED BELOW

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 49-26) (projected: 55-27)

(2 seed)

Sun, Apr 5 at Cleveland L
Tue, Apr 7 at Oklahoma City W (lost to OKC already AT HOME)
Wed, Apr 8 Portland W (lost TWICE to POR already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better record in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
Fri, Apr 10 Utah W
Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W
Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W

DENVER

(current: 50-26) (projected: 54-28)

(3 seed)

Sat, Apr 4 LA Clippers W
Sun, Apr 5 at Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back after long flight from LA)
Wed, Apr 8 Oklahoma City W
Thu, Apr 9 at LA Lakers L
Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W
Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current: 48-28) (projected: 53-29)

(wins tiebreaker with POR, earning the 4 seed)

Sun, Apr 5 Portland W (lost to them already)
Tue, Apr 7 Orlando W (not sure why, except Orlando is good)
Thu, Apr 9 at Sacramento W
Fri, Apr 10 at Golden State W (2d of back to back)
Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L

PORTLAND

(current: 48-27) (projected: 53-29)

(loses tiebreaker to HOU, meaning a likely 5 seed)

Sun, Apr 5 at Houston L (beat them once already)
Tue, Apr 7 at Memphis W
Wed, Apr 8 at San Antonio L (beat them TWICE already, b2b for both teams, but Portland has a better ercord in those games and Popp might just help us out and rest guys)
Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers W
Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W
Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
Wed, Apr 15 Denver W

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 47-28) (projected: 50-32)

(wins tiebreaker with DAL, earning a 6 seed)

Sun, Apr 5 Utah W (lost to them TWICE already)
Tue, Apr 7 at Miami L
Wed, Apr 8 Phoenix W (2d of back-to-back)
Fri, Apr 10 at Dallas L (beat them TWICE already)
Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L
Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (possible W if Spurs rest guys?)

DALLAS

(current: 45-31) (projected: 50-32)

(loses tiebreaker to NO, earning a 7 seed)

Sun, Apr 5 Phoenix W (lost to them once already)
Wed, Apr 8 Utah W (lost to them TWICE already)
Fri, Apr 10 New Orleans W (lost to them TWICE already)
Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

UTAH

(current: 46-30) (projected: 48-34)

(8 seed)

Sun, Apr 5 at New Orleans L (beat them TWICE already)
Wed, Apr 8 at Dallas L (beat them TWICE already)
Fri, Apr 10 at San Antonio L
Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W (2d of back-to-back)
Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L (possible W if Lakers rest guys?)

PHOENIX

(current: 42-34) (projected: 46-36)

(OUT)

Sun, Apr 5 at Dallas L (beat them once already)
Wed, Apr 8 at New Orleans L (2d of back-to-back for NO)
Fri, Apr 10 at Memphis W
Sat, Apr 11 at Minnesota W (2d of back-to-back)
Mon, Apr 13 Memphis W
Wed, Apr 15 Golden State W

Recent events and the upcoming schedule have really pushed Utah, Dallas and NO into a tier behind Houston and Portland. Phoenix is probably nothing more than a spoiler at this point, unless Dallas or Utah continues to falter and Phoenix wins out.

What that means is, we continue to hope for those teams to get wins against Houston, San Antonio or Denver to help us out, but other than that, it really becomes Portland taking care of ITS business to earn homecourt...beat Houston, and you really turn the race around, because you have the tiebreaker, so it's really a FOUR game swing depending on whether we win at Houston. How so? If we win, we get a tiebreaker on them, plus a game gained in the standings. If we lose, we fall a game behind in the standings and lose the tiebreaker, too. So, it's the difference between being TWO up or TWO down...no pressure though, Portland, no pressure. Same result if we win in San Antonio

Putting that aside, we can still:

BEAT HOUSTON (or San Antonio)!!!

Of Course, God helps those who help themselves, so the best thing Portland could do for itself would be to steal one of the Texas games, and hold serve on the other "should wins," as Portland would gain a game on Houston and/or San Antonio with a win, and would earn the tiebreaker with whichever team we beat based on the head-to head records (unless that team is a division winner, and Portland is not).

Essentially, the game against Houston has the potential for a four game swing in the standings, effectively, for Portland. (see analysis of effect of wins vs. Houston and San Antonio, above.)

ROOT FOR ADDED LOSSES FOR DENVER, HOUSTON OR SAN ANTONIO IN BOLDED GAMES ABOVE, AND/OR PRAY FOR MORE LIGHTNING LIKE TONIGHT TO STRIKE THE TEAMS ABOVE US WITH UPSET LOSSES.

BOTTOM LINE:

What we as Blazers fans should be rooting for (and that's really the question here, right?) in any game between playoff contenders in the West is that the third tier guys (or spoiler Phoenix) win a couple against the first tier guys, specifically, San Antonio, Denver Denver, and Houston. Other than that, everything going to plan means we get a four or five seed, and us beating one of the Texas teams likely gives us homecourt in the first Round.

All clear now?

How Portland controls its own destiny for Number Two or Three Seed

blazer91 — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:06:49 -0000

This is hinted at in my ongoing updated taking care of business post, but in the ultimate "taking care of business" theme, here it is in black and white for those who don't like to read a lot:

IF UTAH WINS TONIGHT, THE BLAZERS CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY FOR HOMECOURT IN AT LEAST THE FIRST ROUND, AND PROBABLY FIRST TWO ROUNDS

IN WINNING OUT, PORTLAND WOULD PASS DENVER, SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON AND FINISH NO WORSE THAN THIRD IN THE WEST

If Denver loses to Utah, Denver would have the same number of losses as Portland, as do Houston and New Orleans currently. If Portland beats Denver and Houston, they move into the rear view mirror. While San Antonio has one less loss than Portland right now, if Portland wins this week's game, San Antonio and Portland would have the same number of losses (27) and Portland would hold the tiebreaker.

ONLY NEW ORLEANS TRULY CONTROLS DESTINY FOR NUMBER TWO INTHE WEST RIGHT NOW

So, the only way Portland wins out and doesn't get a two seed is if New Orleans also wins out, and in so doing knocks Houston and San Antonio back another game, thus winning their division. In that circumstance, New Orleans wins the tiebreaker with Portland and finishes in the 2 seed, while Portland still gets the three seed by virtue of its division win and tiebreakers with San Antonio and Houston.

IF NEW ORLEANS DROPS A GAME, PORTLAND IS IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT FOR NUMBER TWO SEED IN THE WEST

New Orleans has a brutal finish, with seven games against contenders (see my other post). If they drop any one of those, no one can stop the Blazers from taking the two seed but the Blazers themselves. As stated in my other posts, I prefer the 3 seed if Dallas sits at 7, since it keeps us away from Dallas until at least the second round. But, if New Orleans drops a game, we are in the driver's seat for the 2 seed.

TONIGHT WE ARE JAZZ FANS

But, in either case, we need the Jazz to win to put Portland into the enviable position of controlling its destiny for either the 2 or 3 seed. So, tonight we are all JAZZ FANS!!!

Tomorrow, we hate them again, at least until they are of use to us.

*PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds steady:*
2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR)	*54-28*
3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner)	*54-28*
*4. PORTLAND*	*54-28*
*5. HOUSTON*	*53-29*
6. DALLAS	*50-32*
*7. NO*	*49-33*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if Portland beats Houston, all else holds steady:
*2. SAN ANTONIO*	*55-27*
3. DENVER (tiebreaker v POR)	*54-28*
*4. PORTLAND*	*54-28*
*5. HOUSTON*	*52-30*
6. NEW ORLEANS (tiebreak v DAL)	*50-32*
*7. DALLAS*	*50-32*
*8. UTAH*	*48-34*
*OUT: PHOENIX*	*46-36*

SB Nation User Blog: blazer91

Losing Deke won't hurt the Rockets

QUASI-Taking Care of Business Update - Tax Day Edition (ALL THE PROJECTIONS for Playoff possibilites, based on Accuscore)

Chances for outcomes of Houston/San Antonio games:

Chances for outcomes of all three games:

Portland's chances for playoff seeding outcomes are:

Seed/Team

Seed Only (74.1 percent chance of homecourt advantage)

Opponent Only

"Taking Care of Business" - FINAL UPDATE (All The Possibilities Edition)

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

IF PORTLAND WINS AND:

IF PORTLAND LOSES AND:

DENVER

(current: 54-27) (projected: 54-28)

(2 seed)

HOUSTON

(current: 53-28) (projected: 53-29)

(3 seed)

PORTLAND

(current: 53-28) (projected: 54-28)

(4 seed)

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 53-28) (projected: 54-28)

(5 seed)

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 49-32) (projected: 49-33)

(6 seed)

DALLAS

(current: 49-32) (projected: 50-32)

(7 seed)

UTAH

(current: 48-33) (projected: 48-34)

(8 seed)

"Taking Care of Business" - 4/13 UPDATE (Two to go Edition)

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

PAY NO ATTENTION TO OREGONLIVE OR ESPN PROJECTIONS TODAY:

KEY REMAINING GAMES BOLDED BELOW

DENVER

(current: 53-27) (projected: 54-28)

(2 seed)

HOUSTON

(current: 52-28) (projected: 53-29)

(3 seed)

PORTLAND

(current: 52-28) (projected: 54-28)

(4 seed) (technically 5 today, but not really)

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 52-28) (projected: 54-28)

(5 seed) (technically 3 today, but not really)

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 49-31) (projected: 49-33)

(6 seed)

DALLAS

(current: 48-32) (projected: 50-32)

(7 seed)

UTAH

(current: 47-33) (projected: 48-34)

(8 seed)

"Taking Care of Business" - 4/10 UPDATE (We Beat LA (again) Edition)

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds steady: 2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR) 54-28 3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28 4. PORTLAND 54-28 5. HOUSTON 53-29 6. DALLAS 50-32 7. NO 49-33 8. UTAH 48-34

THIS JUST IN:

RESULTS:

KEY REMAINING GAMES BOLDED BELOW

DENVER

(current: 53-27) (projected: 54-28)

(2 seed)

HOUSTON

(current: 52-28) (projected: 53-29)

(3 seed)

PORTLAND

(current: 51-28) (projected: 54-28)

(4 seed)

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 51-28) (projected: 54-28)

(5 seed)

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 48-31) (projected: 49-33)

(6 seed)

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR) 54-28

3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28

4. PORTLAND 54-28

5. HOUSTON 53-29

6. DALLAS 50-32

7. NO 49-33

8. UTAH 48-34

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds steady:

2. DENVER (tiebreaker v. SA/POR) 54-28

3. SAN ANTONIO (division winner) 54-28

4. PORTLAND 54-28

5. HOUSTON 53-29

6. DALLAS 50-32

7. NO 49-33

8. UTAH 48-34

OUT: PHOENIX

47-35