blue bulldog
Apr 22, 2010 Jun 02, 2012 60 13994
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Future Expectations: Matt Davidson
by blue bulldog on May 28, 2012 12:00 AM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
Now that Dan has retired from the 'Pit, I'll do my best to help fill his giant shoes in the minor league analysis department for the next couple of months.
Since it looks like we're still going to be having Minor League Recaps, I thought I would try to do something a little different for my weekly stories. I wanted to basically spend my time focusing on one particular prospect of interest, sort of like the Trevor Bauer story about a week ago, but also try to get an idea of what a reasonable expectation of the prospect would be once he reaches the majors. Of course, this also means I'll pretty much only be looking at our more elite prospects. But I thought it might be valuable for readers to get a more in-depth look at each of the prospects we might be able to see in the next couple of years.
I will try to incorporate both scouting analysis and statistical comparisons, but for those of you who have read what I've written in the past, it should come as no surprise that I will lean a little more on the statistical side.
And of course, Dan and I will sometimes have drastically different expectations for prospects, so plenty of my comments will probably not be shared by him. That is, after all, half the joy in prospecting :)
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Trevor Bauer's AAA Debut
by blue bulldog on May 19, 2012 1:30 AM EDT
in Diamondbacks Farm Teams
on AZ Snake Pit
So yeah, this Trevor Bauer kid is pretty good. Initial caveat is that I'm not a professional so take anything I say with a grain of salt. But at least for me, for today, I thought I saw a truly special pitcher on the mound. He's just incredibly exciting to watch. Edge of the seat material. Especially for fans who are more into the pitching aspect of baseball, than the hitting aspect. I highly recommend people who have MiLB.tv to watch his next start. Or I guess just be patient and wait. He'll be up eventually.
Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect List
The industry bible on baseball prospects is out.
#9 - Trevor Bauer
#13 - Tyler Skaggs
#25 - Archie Bradley
#97 - Matt Davidson
Arizona Diamondbacks 2012 Draft Pool
Not sure if this is behind a paywall, but Jim Callis at Baseball America has calculated the Dbacks draft pool for next year to be at $3.8 million.
While at first glance it seems like the new CBA has had a drastically negative impact on our potential to spend in the MLB Draft (last year we spent over $11 million), we have to remember that last year was a pretty unique situation, where we had two picks in the top 7.
In fact, in 2010 and 2008, we only spent around $4.5 million in the draft (in 2009, we spent a lot in the draft due to our multiple picks in the Top 100). Given our draft position in 2012, $3.8 million seems perfectly reasonable to me, and likely close to what we would have spent regardless of whether there was a new CBA or not.
Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects
I believe this is the first of the major "independent" Top 100 prospect lists to come out (so not including the MLB Top 100).
The list is blocked by a paywall, but here are the major takeaways for Dbacks fans:
#19 Archie Bradley
#21 Trevor Bauer
#25 Tyler Skaggs
#31 Jarrod Parker (sorry I had to)
#82 Matt Davidson
It is important to read the list while keeping in mind that Keith Law is generally regarded as valuing upside more than anything else.
Overall, Keith Law ranked our farm system as the 6th best in baseball.
What It Means To Be A No. 1 Starter
by blue bulldog on Aug 22, 2011 5:14 PM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
I just read a comment by a poster named auclairkeithbc at Minor League Ball, and wanted to share it with the posters here on the Snakepit. It seems like sometimes fans like us get frustrated when someone identifies a given pitcher as a No. 1 or No. 2 Starter, or front of the rotation vs. back-end of the rotation starter. Jim previously posted an article divvying up the league into five blocks of pitchers, and found what the range of ERA's relative to each block was. While this is, of course, one way of thinking about No. 1 vs. No. 2 vs. No. 3 vs. No. 4 vs. No. 5 Starters, I have to stress that this is not what the industry considers when it's identifying a pitcher as such.
See the below comment from auclairkeithbc:
No. 1 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, plus-plus command, plus makeup
No. 2 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, average command, average makeup
No. 3 Starter: One plus pitch, two average pitches, average command, average makeup
No. 4 & No. 5 Starters: Average velocity, consistent breaking ball, decent changeup, command of two of the pitches
The other more qualitative definition people use quite a bit would be that a No. 1 Starter is someone you’d feel confident about pitching in Game 1 of a playoff series, No. 2 for Game 2, No. 3 for Game 3, No. 4 for an occasional playoff start if necessary, and No. 5 never in the playoffs.
These definitions were not made up on the spot by the poster, but are straight out of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.
Both the scouting standard and qualitative standard are somewhat subject to adjustment. So for instance, if you have one plus pitch, two average pitches, and plus-plus command, then maybe you could consider him to be a No. 2 Starter. For instance, this is what I call Ian Kennedy syndrome. He has one plus pitch at best (this is being pretty generous to him) but he's been able to pitch like a No. 2 Starter because of incredible command this year, something that definitely wasn't as present last year. On the other hand, you can have two plus pitches, an average third pitch, and below average command, and that might drop you down to No. 3 Starter status. This is what I call Daniel Hudson syndrome. Or I mean, you can just also believe that Dan Hudson's fastball hasn't been a plus pitch, the way it was last year, and that has dropped him down to a No. 3 Starter status. Then, there's the problem when you have a guy like Trevor Bauer, and he throws six different pitches, all of which are at least average or better. How do you fit him into a category?
Anyway, the purpose of this fanpost wasn't to really inspire a debate about the usefulness of this form of categorization, versus any other type of categorization of starting pitchers in baseball. It was simply to provide information on what the industry classification was based on, so that when people read in a news article, that a scout was quoted as saying "Trevor Bauer would be a No. 2 Starter in the majors right now", we know that the scout doesn't mean he expects any specific ERA/FIP/xFIP or WAR out of Trevor Bauer....but that he basically views Trevor Bauer as having two major-league ready plus pitches (in this case, probably the fastball and curveball would be considered plus pitches) and average command.
GM's Around Baseball
by blue bulldog on Aug 20, 2011 1:35 AM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
Somewhat due to the Jim Hendry firing, and the statement by the Ricketts that they wanted a GM who was both comfortable with scouting and sabermetrics, I was inspired to do some mini-research on the current GM's all around baseball. Part of it was to get an idea of the distribution of old-timers versus up-and-comers. Another was to get a sense of how long the road to becoming a GM takes. And finally, a general idea of where GM's get their education.
The research was not particularly scientific in any way, and was really just a simple survey. But, hopefully it is interesting to others as well. After all, there probably isn't a single individual on a given team more important to baseball operations, and the direction the organization takes in the future, than the GM.
Groundball vs. Flyball Pitcher
by blue bulldog on Aug 10, 2011 7:32 PM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
There's been some interesting debate lately, on various posts and gameday threads, regarding the relative value of a groundball vs. flyball pitcher, especially at Chase Field with our current defensive alignment. This debate has become all the more interesting, as we watch the success of flyball pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, whereas groundball pitchers such as Zach Duke and Jason Marquis have struggled.
I thought I would try to take a stab at it, using numerical projections and test cases.
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Trevor Bauer Continuing to Crow-Hop His Way to Success
Awesome article giving tons of juicy details about Bauer's two inning start today for Visalia.
Can't wait to see him pitch for the Dbacks next year, hopefully as part of our rotation straight out of spring training.
Baseball America's Updated Top 50
Jim Callis provides his personal update of the Top 50 prospects in baseball, with new draftees included. Callis would have placed 7 of the recent draftees in the Top 50, including Trevor Bauer at #12, and Archie Bradley at #32.
Don't FIP Me Off
by blue bulldog on Jul 6, 2011 11:04 AM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
I actually saw a comment on this at Fangraphs and it really amazed me how flawed of a statistic FIP is. I didn't think this got enough attention on Fangraphs, and I'm not sure if people realize how seriously flawed FIP may be here on the 'Pit, so I decided to write a post about it.
One of the biggest problems with FIP lies in the fact that it's based on innings pitched, as opposed to batters faced. Let's have a thought experiment:
Imagine two pitchers. Let's imagine them as genetically enhanced Dan Haren, because they never ever walk anybody. The only possible outcomes when they face batters, are hit, strikeout, or some other out. Now let's imagine that one of these pitchers has a BABIP of .400, whereas the other pitcher has a BABIP of .100. The following table illustrates what happens to these pitchers for every ten batters they face:
|
|
Pitcher A |
Pitcher B |
|
BABIP |
.400 |
.100 |
|
Batters Faced |
10 |
10 |
|
Strikeout Percentage |
30% |
30% |
|
Strikeouts |
3 |
3 |
|
Hits |
4 |
1 |
|
Outs Recorded |
6 |
9 |
|
Innings Pitched |
2 |
3 |
|
K/9 |
13.5 |
9 |
NL West Arms Race
by blue bulldog on Jun 28, 2011 3:00 PM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
I was exploring the Fangraphs leaderboard the other day, and it really struck me just how incredibly talented the arms in the NL West are. Yeah, people are going to always gush about the more well-known (and deservedly so) pitchers in the NL East, in particular the triumvirate of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels with the Phillies. But Halladay and Lee are getting up there in age, and do people realize, that as of today, the NL West holds six of the top twelve pitchers as measured by Fangraphs WAR?
Follow me after the jump, as we take a look at just how scary NL West pitching actually is right now, and how much potential the future holds.
The Joy of Pitch F/X: Measuring Movement
by blue bulldog on Jun 26, 2011 4:20 AM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
This post was inspired by a long exchange of commentary between me and Baltimor over the game-winning home run Wily Mo Pena hit against David Purcey of the Detroit Tigers on a hanging slider.
Will try to add some pretty graphs and pictures of dots eventually...but for now you'll just have to be satisfied with this picture and my basic explanations.
The Baby 'Backs Report: June 20
by blue bulldog on Jun 19, 2011 3:00 PM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
Been a while since I've posted one of these. Fortunately, our major league team continues to compete in the division, which means people can (rightfully so) be less concerned about the farm. Going to do things a little differently this time, as instead of talking about risers and fallers, I'll just write a short blurb and go into a little bit about each of the prospects that matter the most (in my opinion) at Visalia and Reno. Part of this is because I just want to talk about all of these guys. The other part is it's faster and easier for me, which is a necessity right now since work is killing me.
Baseball America Chat
Great chat this week from Baseball America, with plenty of commentary on top prospects in the Dbacks system. Parker, Skaggs, Holmberg, Corbin and Goldschmidt all get mentions.
Why Decision-Making Matters
The happiest day of the 2010 season for me was when I woke up one morning and heard the absurd rumor that an Edwin Jackson for Dan Hudson trade was in the works. I remember being so excited, and so fearful that the trade wouldn't go down, that for the longest time after hearing about the trade, I refused to comment on AZSnakepit because of the stupid and semi-superstitious thought that my comment would lead to some butterfly effect that somehow ended up causing Kenny Williams to pull back his offer.
Kenny Williams didn't pull back. Jerry DiPoto pulled the trigger. And here we are one year later, our team in the midst of a tight playoff race, and the White Sox falling apart.
Luck in baseball matters. Consistently good decision-making matters more. Obviously Dan Hudson by himself isn't the reason why we're in position to contend for the next five years. But every fifth day he takes the ball on the mound, I thank my lucky stars that I'm a Dbacks fan, and that our organization doesn't make the same poor decisions so many other teams choose to make.
Baseball Prospectus on Tyler Skaggs
Not sure if this is behind a pay wall, but a nice scouting article from Baseball Prospectus detailing some of the premier left-handed pitching prospects in the minors. The skinny on Skaggs is that he's got a prototypical pitcher's frame, a fastball that sits 89-93 mph that projects to be plus, a curveball that is already a legitimate plus pitch, and a changeup that is improving and shows a lot of potential. Essentially though, Skaggs is one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the minors, in the company of the likes of Martin Perez (Rangers) and Mike Montgomery (Royals), who are very well-regarded prospects.
A Toast.....
.....to Dan Haren, one of the greatest that ever donned Sedona Red.
MLB Draft Top Ten Board
by blue bulldog on Jun 6, 2011 1:02 PM EDT
in Diamondbacks Draft
on AZ Snake Pit
It's Draft Day! As we eagerly wait for the draft to begin in a few hours, Jim, IHSB, and I have conspired together to come up with a Top Ten Board for the incoming class of 2011. The short blurbs come nowhere close to the outstanding work IHSB put together earlier detailing potential Diamondbacks draft picks, but I thought it'd be interesting to see what a semi-consolidated Snakepit ranking of draft prospects would look like.
And without further ado...
16. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona: Still coming back from 2009 Tommy John surgery. Stuff is there, command isn't, although six walks in his past 20 innings (versus 17 in his first 23 innings) is a positive sign. Just be patient.
Diamondbacks Draft Rumors
by blue bulldog on May 28, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in Diamondbacks Draft
on AZ Snake Pit
"It sounds like the Pirates have narrowed their list for the No. 1 overall pick to Hultzen, Starling, and Cole, with Rendon still a possibility. If they take Hultzen, Seattle probably takes Rendon (although there's still an outside chance they go rogue and take Lindor) and Arizona takes Bauer. If the Pirates take Starling or Cole, Seattle goes Rendon and Arizona takes Hultzen, which could push Bauer all the way to Washington at No. 6."
- Jason A. Churchill, ESPN
What Prospect Followers are Saying about the Dbacks
Interesting comment thread from Minorleagueball, where they are attempting to assemble a prediction list for Baseball America's Midseason Top 50 Prospects update.
The consensus seems to be that Skaggs, Goldschmidt, and Parker are Dbacks prospects who have a chance to make the list. I feel reasonably confident that Skaggs and Goldschmidt will make it (as long as they don't implode within the next few weeks). Not sure if Parker will, since even though it's expected for pitchers coming back from TJ to not have the same control they used to exhibit, Parker hasn't really improved his control much since coming back from TJ. BA reportedly is in love with Parker though, so it's definitely possible for him to be on the list.
Diamondbacks Farm Round-Up: May 21st
by blue bulldog on May 22, 2011 11:31 AM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
The farm didn't have strong showing tonight, as three of our four affiliates ended up taking the L. Overall, we were outscored 24-14, despite Reno and Kevin Mulvey's valiant effort.
Danny Hultzen - Fitting Into the Diamondbacks Future
by blue bulldog on May 21, 2011 2:00 PM EDT
in Diamondbacks Draft
on AZ Snake Pit
This is a continuation of the series started by IHSB, where he gave a detailed account of why it would make sense for the Dbacks to draft Bubba Starling at #3. We've expressed this in many different ways, but it can't be stressed enough that the upcoming draft is probably the most important draft in the team's history. Even more important than the draft where we ended up with Justin Upton at first overall, since we were only able to pick one premier talent that year, whereas this time around we'll have access to two premier talents.
So why should we pick Danny Hultzen?
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The Baby 'Backs Report: May 15
by blue bulldog on May 15, 2011 10:00 PM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
Some encouraging news from some of our more touted prospects, as it seems like they are finally starting to come around. Of course, it wouldn't be the Diamondbacks if everything was rosy, so there are still some problem prospects loitering around. We're now up to around the 150 PA range, which should represent about slightly less than one-fourth of a regular season of plate appearances.
Pitch F/X: Why We Shouldn't Worry About Daniel Hudson
by blue bulldog on May 1, 2011 2:23 PM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
One of the reasons why I love baseball is because there are so many sophisticated tools that can be used for analysis. In my opinion, it really allows people to have a wide variety of perspectives in which to understand the sport, something that currently does not exist on a comparable level for sports like basketball and football.
I wanted to get this post out there before Daniel Hudson's game this afternoon. First off, I want to admit that I love Hudson and think he has amazing stuff. Because of this, there may be some inherent bias on my part. However, my belief is that Hudson, despite the early season results, is still the amazing pitcher we witnessed last year. He's just been unlucky so far, and will shortly revert to form.
In the meantime, I'm currently praying that Hudson will go 8 innings tonight, and blank the Cubs on 10 K's.
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The Baby 'Backs Report: May 1
by blue bulldog on May 1, 2011 11:00 AM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
A month into the season, and we're finally starting to get into the 50-75 AB range for these prospects. Voros' Law says that basically anything can happen for any player in a 60 AB range, so again, it's not even close to the stage where we can look at stats and garner concrete conclusions. That being said, there's some encouraging news, some disappointing news, and as always, more question marks than available answers.
Join me after the jump, as we take a look at the travails of our top minor league prospects at High-A Visalia and Triple AAA Reno.
Danny Hultzen Q&A
Q&A session of Danny Hultzen with MLBTradeRumor's Ben Nicholson-Smith. Three really important points. 1) I love the way he pitches, in the sense that he makes not walking batters a priority. 2) It seems like he doesn't have an inherent problem with the Dbacks drafting him again, so it will only be a matter of how much money we're willing to cough up. 3) As late as last week, Law was talking about how much the Dbacks love Sonny Gray, and was implying we'd have a legitimate shot at obtaining him at #7.
A couple months still until the draft. But the possibility of Hultzen and Gray and Parker and Hudson as full-fledged members of our rotation in 2013 just makes me salivate.
The Baby 'Backs Report: April 16
by blue bulldog on Apr 16, 2011 2:00 PM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
It's always about the future, my friends. Each Saturday, IHSB and I will present reports on the progress of our minor league prospects, young Baby 'Backs that will hopefully have long-term roles on the Dbacks roster for years to come. I will be covering Reno (AAA) and Visalia (High-A) for now, whereas IHSB will focus on Mobile (AA) and South Bend (Low-A).
Ten Games In - Hope
by blue bulldog on Apr 13, 2011 5:00 PM EDT
on AZ Snake Pit
And so it goes, and so it goes. It felt like just yesterday we were still debating the pros and cons of the Mark Reynolds for David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio trade. And now, we've already played our first ten games, and the 2011 Dbacks have given us a glimpse of what the season may behold.
Expectations? I think it's safe to say that they've outperformed most observers' and fans' preseason expectations, from both the cold-blooded statistical sense, and the standpoint of "hot damn, that was a bomb from Upton".
I'm sure I'm not the only one that feels the 2011 Dbacks have made baseball exciting to watch again, providing us joy in ways that were just missing from the team for the past two years. And after reading soco's rhapsodic account of our dear Willie, I couldn't help but be inspired to write about my own impressions of the early 2011 season. However, as a devout follower of sabermetrics, I plan on delving more into the numbers, and explore the story they tell, and the future they portend. All statistics were derived from Fangraphs, my bible of sabermetrics.
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