More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

5 months ago: Washington Nationals pitcher Ross Detwiler throws in the first inning of a baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays in Washington, Saturday, June 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

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Last week, we went with a Fanpost about some of the options that the Nats could or should take a serious look at when Free Agency gets going full swing.  While I love the fact that it created plenty of discussion, a few steps were left off the pages as I jumped to the conclusions about the Nats' needs.  A couple of users pointed out my omissions of pretty much every starter on the current roster except for John Lannan, Ross Detwiler, and the injury-riddled Scott Olsen.  This was certainly a fair point, so for my first official article (well.... likely a series over the next couple of weeks, moving to the bullpen and position players), I'm going to take a look at the options that the Nats already have in house.

Despite getting just a combined 33 starts (all from John Lannan) from their primary pitchers they started in 2008, the 2009 Nats actually matched their 2008 starters' ERA exactly (4.97).  Neither group was in the top two-thirds of the league (2008 saw them finish 23rd... 2009, 27th), but considering that 26-year-old starters J.D. Martin and Garrett Mock were the two elder statesmen among the eight starters who made ten starts or more, there's some room for optimism going forward.  The only starter with a consistent enough (or long enough, to be honest) track record for the Nats to know he'll be dependable in 2010 is Lannan, but there are plenty of guys with a shot to take a step forward in 2010.

I'll give some more in-depth insights, as well as ordering the candidates and their expected 2010 performance after the jump...

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As my beloved Nats plummeted to their second consecutive 59 win season (just think if they hadn't won the last seven!), it's clear to me that the old "lipstick on a pig" band-aid isn't going to work this offseason.  Mike Rizzo and Co. have a lot of work to do, and though I'll have absolutely nothing to do with it, I'm going to brainstorm some ideas.  I'm not the first member of this support group to do so, and I doubt I'll be the last.  While I'll certainly comment on others' thoughts when they post them, I'm not necessarily saying my ideas are better or worse than anyone else's... sometimes they're just different (I remember feeling like I was coming off a bit antagonistic around the trade deadline in here, so.........).  At any rate, my detailed ideas on what the Nats should do this offseason.  I guess I'll begin by naming most of the current core:

C - Flores, ?????

1b - Dunn

2b - Desmond/Guzman

SS - Desmond/Guzman

3b - Zimmerman

LF - Willingham

CF - Morgan

RF - Dukes

Bench: Justin Maxwell, Willie Harris, Alberto Gonzalez, Pete Orr, Mike Morse

SP - Lannan, Detwiler, Olsen, and then the glut of Stammen/Mock/Balester/Martis/Martin and hopefully not Livan

RP - Clippard, Burnett, MacDougal, and no... I don't trust any of the rest (come to think of it, I don't trust MacDougal)

Primary Needs: A dependable starting middle infielder, two or three starters (at least one near the top of the rotation), and about 25 bullpen arms!  I'd say closer, but paying top dollar for a closer is a waste when you can't get the game to him.

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For those who haven't figured out who the PTBNL was in the Nats' recent deal with the Dodgers, it was 24-year-old AA left-hander Victor Garate.  Garate has been outstanding out of the bullpen in Chattanooga this season, striking out 56 against 23 walks in 53 innings.  He's maintained a 2.04 ERA, a .196 Batting Average Against, and a 2.86 FIP.  Garate is rumored to be equally as good against both right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters, which would certainly indicate that in the long run, he's not going to just become a LOOGY (or Lefty One Out Guy for those unfamiliar with the term) out of the bullpen.

In fact, after the Dodgers had acquired him as a Rule V pick from Houston prior to the 2008 season (not sure how that worked... he was in the minors all season, so I guess Houston chose not to buy him back), they tried him out as a starter.  It appears that Garate was extremely effective in the role at A ball (1.85 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 103:28 K:BB ratio in 77.2 IP... 12 of his 17 appearances were starts), though he was a bit old for the level.  After a late-season call to High A as a starter (4.70 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 47:14 K:BB ratio in 38.1 IP, all as a starter), Garate transitioned back to the bullpen full-time as he started 2009 at AA.  He currently ranks sixth among full-time relievers with a 9.51 K/9 ratio and sixth among relievers with 56 strikeouts. 

Garate is certainly further along in his development than the other player acquired in the deal (22-year-old RHP Luis Garcia).  Neither were rated among the Dodgers' top twenty prospects in the preseason according to John Sickels.  True Blue LA had a midseason prospect ranking thread where three different guys ranked their prospects.  Garate was #20 with two of them and #28 with the other.  Garcia ended up ranked #22 on one list, but didn't appear on the other two.  Memories of Kevin Malone (yeah... found some Dodgers' sites) compiled a September Dodgers' prospect rankings and had Garate ranked 11th, up from 18th in the preseason.

I can't find a whole lot of anything on Luis Garcia's stuff (could be that he's not the first Luis Garcia ever to play professional baseball.... finding a scouting report wasn't easy).  As for Garate, I did find a nice little scouting report (again, complements of Memories of Kevin Malone).  His fastball certainly isn't overpowering (low 90s on the high end), though he has terrific command of it.  He's got a solid slider which he doesn't command nearly as well.  Apparently his changeup is his best offering, but he apparently still has some work to do with his location in that area as well.  As was the case with Baseball America, Brian Fuentes was mentioned.  He's really deceptive with his delivery.

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On a day when it was supposed to be all smiles for Nats fans everywhere, a hard fought 4-3 loss to the Rockies didn't really put a damper on things.  However, this rumor posted by Yahoo! Sports' Gordon Edes certainly seems to indicate that the Nationals' search for a full-time General Manager may be nearing a conclusion.  Furthermore, it indicates that the conclusion will not end up with "Acting" GM Mike Rizzo seeing the "Acting" simply removed from his title.

It's also interesting to note that Team President Stan Kasten avoided the question a bit in his interview with Debbi Taylor during tonight's game about the Strasburg negotiations.  Concluding the interview, Debbi asked Kasten how it felt to come out on the "winning side" of the deal with Strasburg and how it would affect Mike Rizzo's efforts in becoming the full-time General Manager of the Washington Nationals. 

Kasten: Well, first of all.  I don't know what you mean by winning.  We just gave away the most money that was ever given to any draft pick.  I don't know how that's a win, except that we got the player we wanted.  Mike ran point on this.  He did a superb job.

Debbi: That's it?

Kasten: Yeah.  I mean I don't have anything more to say... for tonight.  But, you know, ever since March, when we needed Mike to step in, he's done a great job with every assignment he's been given, and this was no exception.

It's worth noting that the camera then shifted to the booth with Kasten and Taylor, showing Kasten with what looked like a pretty forced smile.  Honestly, the most telling thing about the interview was that Kasten just seemed like he wanted to remain tight-lipped, while Taylor seemed like she was doing whatever she could to avoid further pressing the issue because of his reluctance to speak about it. 

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While I've butted heads with a few of you around here about what would or would not constitute a strong deadline for the Nats, there were some things that I've loved about the frenzy in the past few weeks leading up to the deadline and some that I hated.  Here's a quick look.

Biggest Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates (Organization)

I know that few of you will agree with me on this.  Pardon me if (as a fan of the Expos from the early 80s until they moved to Washington and a fan of the Nats ever since) I have a small market mentality.  I could easily put the Pirates fans who want to see a short-term return on their team as the biggest losers as well, but I have to love what Neal Huntington did for this club's future. 

- He gutted a cast of misfits that was left for him by previous GM Dave Littlefield, accepting that an effort to build upon a base of a few decent players by sprinkling in some talent wasn't going to be as effective as adding a quality core of players that fit his system.  In short, rather than making the goal to break the seventeen-season streak of finishing with a losing record, he went out and tried to build a team that he hopes will compete for a division title within the next 3-5 years.

- To do so, he dealt away quite a few quality players and fan favorites.  Players such as Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Adam Laroche, and John Grabow.  He dealt away one player that defied the scouts and appears to be an emerging star in Nate McLouth.  He also dumped a couple of starting pitchers, one of whom had fallen out of favor with the organization (Tom Gorzelanny), and another who just plain didn't want to pitch for the organization anymore (Ian Snell, who at one point after his demotion told the Pirates that he would rather stay in Indianapolis than return to the majors in Pittsburgh).  The returns for these players figures to give the Pirates a solid core to build around, including several replacements at the positions they traded away...(cont. after the jump):

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With the San Francisco Giants acquiring Ryan Garko from the Cleveland Indians tonight, one more team has likely pulled itself from the potential Nick Johnson sweepstakes.  It's been a question all year at Federal Baseball as to whether the Nats should move NJ or not, with some of us (myself included) screaming that they should trade him (and probably should have at the now departed height of his value) and many more saying that they should not trade him.  Of course, there are a handful of other guys (Yes.  I'm casting an evil glare towards you, Cristian Guzman!) who it might behoove the Nats to deal.  For now, though, let's focus on the name that's been out there all season...

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Rumor has it that the Nats were scouting the Memphis Redbirds the other day:

Cardinal Notebook

The tidbit is at the bottom of the page and mentions that the Nats are shopping the Donkey around.  Part of me finds it funny, since Willingham and NJ are the two most prominent trade chips that are going around.  Then again, Dunn is the only name that would really be a fit for St. Louis.  Why?  Some guy named Albert Pujols obviously nullifies any interest the Cardinals would have in Johnson, while the Cards also have a seriously need for a left-handed power bat more than anything else.

I guess I'll speculate a bit on who or what the Nats could be looking at in the Cardinals system:

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I was out of town for a week, so I didn't really have the computer time to post my feelings on the subject (which most of you already know).  Sadly, I was going to point to the Pythagorean Win-Loss records, but Doghouse stole my thunder a bit there.  I'm still going to throw a little more in there about the Pythagorean Win-Loss, but I just won't go as in-depth.  Instead, we're going to go with a narcissistic lead where I begin with a quote of my own from two weeks ago.

Acting GM Mike Rizzo started the change Tuesday, when the club fired pitching coach Randy St. Claire.  From a performance standpoint, the move certainly makes plenty of sense.  The Nationals are currently last in the majors with a 5.67 ERA.  The club also ranks dead last with a .285 Batting Average Against, a .370 OBP against (12 full points higher than 29th ranked Cleveland), 8 Saves, 15 Quality Starts, and a 1.34 Strikeout to Walk ratio.  Seeing as how the problems with the walks have been well documented, I'll bring up that they're 28th in the league in Walks Allowed, slightly better than the Dodgers (who counter that with a leauge-leading .236 BAA) and the Indians.  The staff also ranks 27th with just 297 strikeouts thus far.  Yes.... the players are obviously harder to "fire" than the pitching coach, but it was clear that St. Claire just wasn't on the verge of turning things around.  The staff got off to a poor start in April, but they actually regressed across the board in the season's second month. 

The question regarding the St. Claire move, however, is this: Could this be a message that Manny Acta had better get it together quickly?  Admittedly, I've been one of the more adamant critics of Acta all season long, so those of you who have read anything I've written already probably knew I was going here.  Still, St. Claire's firing removes a crutch that Acta could have continued to use before Tuesday.  If there's not a huge change in team performance by the end of June, I would be shocked if Acta is still running this club by the All-Star Break.  I'm not necessarily talking about a winning month, but if the club doesn't play at least .400 ball, Acta's job should be on the line.

To give a brief update, St. Claire was fired on June 2 and replaced by current pitching coach Steve McCatty.  The pitchers have responded.  After allowing 308 runs in the 50 games of the season's first two months (6.16), they've allowed just 57 runs in 13 June games under McCatty (4.38).  Before you blame the awful defense, the 1.78 runs/game differential is not representing the earned runs the Nationals pitchers have allowed.... those are the total runs. 

In spite of the corrections on the runs allowed side of the ledger, the Nats have been worse (3-10, .231 winning percentage) in June than they were heading into the month (13-36, .265), as the offense has gone from scoring 4.8 runs/game in the season's first two months to 3.07 runs/game so far in June.  Is Acta to blame for all of this?  Certainly not all of it, but it is a bit striking that (albeit with a small sample size) the team's biggest problem has corrected itself by nearly two full runs per game and the team is actually performing worse.  I stand by what I said a couple of weeks ago.  The performance of the bullpen/pitching staff in general under St. Claire early this season was what should have been the last crutch he could have leaned on.

Let's jump, because this could take a while.....

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After a horrific 5-16 (.238) April, we had to believe that things couldn't get worse for the Nats in the season's second month.  They didn't get much better, either, though.  The Nats went just 8-20 (.286) in May.  While their performance in the second month of the season would at least look like a passable batting average, it continued to be increasingly clear that some changes need to be made.

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The Nats placed Scott Olsen (left shoulder tendinitis) on the disabled list after Saturday's games, but that's not the big story.  For all of the flak that Daniel Cabrera has taken (deservedly so, in my eyes) for his struggles, it could easily be argued that Olsen has been worse.  After Saturday's 8-5 loss to the Phillies, Olsen finds himself 1-4 with a 7.24 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and a 29:18 strikeout to walk ratio in 41 innings.  A year after limiiting the league to a .253 average in his first 200 inning season, Olsen has been lit up by opposing hitters for a .335 average over his first eight starts.  While we can't know how much the bum shoulder has impacted that, we can say with absolute certainty that it's not helping.

Still, Olsen isn't the big news.  It's his replacement on the 25-man roster, 2007 first round pick Ross Detwiler.  The 24-year-old left-hander had a solid professional debut after signing in 2007.  He dominated briefly in rookie ball, with a 2.25 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 15:3 strikeout to walk ratio in 12 innings.  There were certainly some struggles after he earned the quick call to Potomac in 2007, but he didn't look intimidated when he got the obligatory cup of coffee with the big club in September.  He had just one inning of work, but didn't yield a hit or walk in the inning.  We didn't see much, but watching the (supposed) crown jewel of a draft class widely considered among the best in the league make a nice debut gave great hope for the future.

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