I don't like making predictions about trades, because I always feel silly since I always under or over estimate a player's value to each team involved or miss some crucial factor. But just for fun, and because it is so unlikely and off the radar (so maybe it will be another Friedman stealth attack), here is one.

Rays trade Davis, Colome and Bortnick to the White Sox for Konerko, Flowers and $6 million.

Why the Rays would do it: Although 35, Konerko has been durable and his last few years are right in line with his career numbers. He walks, does not strike out a lot and has power. His splits do not show a problem with righties or outside his home park. Last year his OPS was well over .800 in both cases, and for his career, he has hit very well at Tropicana. His $12 million 2012 salary would be eased by the money, and the $13.5 million commitment in 2013 is actually $6.5 million with the rest spread out over 7 years at $1 million per year.

Although Flowers has been disappointing, he showed some improvement last season (and catchers often develop late) and he has some pop and walks a lot. I read at Sickels that his defense has improved. He has a chance to become an adequate major league catcher or at least a backup.

Why the White Sox would do it: Stuck with Dunn, he could move to 1B where his offense might rebound. They have lost Buehrle and probably Jackson, and Peavy is a question, so there is room in the rotation. Their farm system is weak, and the recent trade of Santos for Molina indicates that Williams wants to improve there as are rumors that he is shopping Danks and Floyd. They would also save a bit of money on Konerko's salary. If, as is reasonable, they do not expect to contend in 2012, it helps the rebuilding.

Why it won't happen: Chicago probably values Konerko much higher, and it is still quite a bit of money for the Rays to commit. Giving up 3 young players for an old first baseman and a probable backup catcher is not typical of Friedman.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/mariners-acquire-john-jaso-from-rays.html

Lueke was jailed for rape not long ago. It does seem an odd decision by the Rays.

He does have good strikeout and walk numbers in the minors and is a big man. Looks like an effort to find some talent for the bullpen-or perhaps for AAA to see if he can force his way into the majors. I am not surprised that Jaso was dealt; I think Maddon was disgusted by his defense last year.

This is by Dave Cameron at ESPN. It is an insider, which I usually don't post, but this is part of a larger article and seems harmless enough.

"The Rays have turned themselves into a winning organization by finding value in players that aren't as well appreciated as they should be, and Crisp is perhaps the most underrated free agent on the market this winter. During the last three years, he's averaged 3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances, putting him nearly on par with Carlos Beltran, who will command significantly more money than Crisp. Injury concerns with Crisp are legitimate, and while he might not be an ironman, he's quite productive when he's on the field.

Bringing Crisp in to take over center field gives the team the ability to trade B.J. Upton, who is due another raise in arbitration and is just a year away from free agency. Crisp will likely get a lower salary as a free agent than Upton would in arbitration, so the team could actually save money and use Upton to improve other parts of the roster.

Given his pedigree and athletic ability, there will be a market for Upton's services, and the Rays would almost certainly get more overall value from Crisp in center, the talent Upton would bring back in a trade, and the influx of cash."

There has been some discussion here about the "problem" in the Rays organization that it has produced lots of pitching talent but few hitters. Here is an article from fangraphs that might lead to some further conversation on the issue:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/comparative-advantage-why-teams-should-specialize-and-trade/

I think some people anticipated this sort of thinking in comments on this site. Is it a valid analysis?

If the Rays scouting and development is really not particularly good at identifying and developing hitters, perhaps they should not spend to upgrade there but rather put even more effort into the pitching side to hone their advantage there.

From today's paper:

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/tampa-bay-rays-success-and-maybe-the-franchise-wont-last-with-status-quo/1195459

Perhaps a minor point, but he makes a comment that reflects something that occurred to me. Sternberg responded immediately after the loss. He was frustrated as all fans were and vented. Look at his comments again. They focus on the view that with more money he might have been able to acquire 2 or 3 big bats to put them over the top.

Maybe he should be more careful to censor himself, but in a way I appreciate what seems like his passion to build a winner.

R.J. Anderson comments on Shoppach at The Process Report and it led me to look up his career numbers vs. lefties.

I do not understand why there is such hostility among some people towards him. It is true his overall numbers were terrible last year, and it is also true that his entire career vs. lefties only reflects 361 plate appearances. But even with last year being his poorest performance in his career, his success has been remarkably consistent and good.

Here are the numbers:

Career: 306 PAs: .286/.381/.568

2010: 103 PAs: .261/.369/.455

2009: 70 PAs: .304/.420/.625

2008: 104 PAs: .304/.373/.576

2007: 41 PAs: .265/.390/.735

2006: 39 PAs: .314/.368/.629

He has also hit a home run approximately every 14.67 ABs off lefties in his career.

For anyone, but especially a catcher, those seem excellent numbers as a platoon player. Even in an off year he had an OPS of .824, and while the sample size total remains small, it seems to suggest he is better than that. Perhaps Chirinos will be better, but he has no major league experience for us to measure him against Shoppach.

The A's have signed Abreu to a minor league deal according to rotoworld.com.

I wonder why Garko seemed never to be in the mix for the Rays as a RH platoon player. From what I can tell, his numbers vs. lefties are pretty good: in 508 PAs, .302/.382/.476 with 49 BBs. 71 Ks, 17 HRs and 24 Doubles. Not great and really less than a full year's worth of appearances, but seems serviceable. And he is not helpless against righties either. Any notion as to why he seemed to elicit no interest? Is it possible he did but got a lot more to go to Korea than anyone here was willing to pay? Or perhaps his recent failures indicate that he can't play any more at age 30?