SB Nation User Blog: bobr

A good sign that Hellickson has gotten better in each start. Tonight, 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5&nbs...

bobr — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 02:58:50 -0000

A good sign that Hellickson has gotten better in each start. Tonight, 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K.

Right Field

bobr — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:02:40 -0000

I am not posting this because I am entirely convinced, but I have been less concerned about a supposed problem in RF than some people. In my view a rotation of Hinske, Gross and Gomes is just fine. This is from Christina Kahrl at BP today:

_____________________________________________________

"In-Game Tactical Fun: Having an open outfield slot where you don't have an established regular doesn't have to be the end of the world, and the Rays are enjoying the benefits to the hilt as they rotate Hinske, Jonny Gomes, and Gabe Gross through their right-field starts. That kind of depth spills over into other lineup slots as well: Hinske's a four-corners reserve, ready to spot start for Pena, Evan Longoria, or Carl Crawford, while the always-fragile Cliff Floyd would probably break down even if limited to a role as the everyday DH. So instead, the Rays have depth, talent, and power where some people are still wondering if Rocco Baldelli will “fix” the problem. It isn't a problem, and however much sympathy people can and should have for Baldelli as he works his way back from his latest injury, it's up to him to prove he's useful enough to be mixed into this crew, and not feel a need to replace it outright."

________________________________________________________

She apparently sees the RF situation more as a benefit than a problem.

Riding a hobby horse

bobr — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 05:29:08 -0000

I suppose this is not the most appropriate time for analysis given the urge simply to celebrate. But the 7th inning today reminded me of one of my pet peeves in bullpen usage.

The orthodox approach for the past 20 years or so is to save the closer for the ninth inning. Now I am not second guessing here. I am pretty sure all 30 managers would have done exactly what Francona did tonight. And while nobody can be sure of hypothetical results, it is possible that is why Boston lost the game.

In the 7th inning with a 3 run lead the Rays got the first 3 men on base cutting the lead to 2 with no outs and 2 men on. What could be a more critical situation than that? In my view, you call on your best pitcher in that situation, i.e. Papelbon. Sure, he might have surrendered the tying and go-ahead runs anyway, but whom do you trust more to hold the lead there, Papelbon or Hansen? And was it likely he would walk 2 more men forcing in another run? At least bring him in when the run was forced in and you still had a 1 run lead with no outs and men on base.

Of course, it is also true that Papelbon probably could not have gone 3 innings-or even 2 (I am not sure if he ever does or not)-so the other relievers might have ceded the lead anyway. But it makes little sense to me to save him for an eventuality that may never occur, as it happened, when you have the possible turning point in front of you.

As I said, I am quite sure Maddon and every other manager would have done the same thing, but I think it is a foolish and inefficient use of the bullpen, and in this case may have cost Boston the game.

Brett Myers

bobr — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 22:54:28 -0000

I have been enthusiastic about Brett Myers for two years hoping that the Rays might find a way to acquire him. Recently I have been discussing this again and now read this posting at mlbtraderumors.com.

_______________________________________________________

After his latest poor start, Brett Myers' future with the Phillies could be up in the air. When asked about Myers' job security, Manager Charlie Manuel told The Inquirer's Todd Zolecki: "Can I say his job is secure? I don't know what to say, if you want to know the truth. We'd have to find somebody to do his job first, I guess."

_________________________________________________________

I realize he has been awful this year, and if there is a physical problem that would change matters. But he may really be a perfect example of someone who simply needs a change of environment, and if that is the case, now might be the time to jump in. He might be available for very little. He could slot as a starter or reliever given his experience.

All his numbers are worse than usual this year. Nonetheless, he is still striking out 7.78/9 IP. His BB rate is up, but still under 4 (3.89/9), and his HR rate, usually high anyway, is even worse this year. Assuming he is not damaged, at age 27 he remains a real talent.

McGee

bobr — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 20:16:31 -0000

Project Prospect reports that Jake is going to have Tommy John surgery. I do not know how authoritative that site is. If true, it may explain his so-so performance this season.

It's too bad, if true, because it was a dream for fans to see a rotation of Price, Davis, McGee, Hellickson and Houser.

Tommy John does not mean a player is unlikely to return to form, but it is a reminder to us that there is no such thing as too many pitching prospects or that we need to worry about prospects being blocked. Doesn't Tommy John usually mean at least a full year before the pitcher returns, and two years before he is at full strength again?

DePodesta blog

bobr — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 02:57:22 -0000

http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/2008/06/draft-review-about-process.html

I think DePodesta's blog is worthwhile for all fans. His latest posting is perhaps somewhat obvious to most people here, but worth reminding us about anyway.

One of the reasons I have such admiration for the current Rays management is that I think they have a very clear and intelligent sense of what the process is for building a winner and have adhered to their commitment consistently, even courageously. That is why I am less concerned with immediate outcomes or short term problems; nor does it bother me particularly if specific moves do not work out well. I think they have a much wider view and will address them and ultimately be successful.

The early season success this year may not continue at this level (although indications remain very positive), but despite the raised expectations and possibilities of a returning cynicism should there be a bad slump (which I doubt will happen), the key is the building of a winner at this point. Increasingly I expect the Rays to be in the hunt for the playoffs all year, but should it not happen, I don't think there is any reason for despair. Disappointment, of course, but still a confidence that the process is in place and over the long term will lead to success.

One reason I like Maddon

bobr — Sat, 31 May 2008 03:23:50 -0000

At the game tonight, we were speculating that Maddon would leave Shields in for the 7th inning. He had thrown 99 pitches (Garza threw 114 or so the other night) and seemed to be getting stronger. When Reyes came in we were a bit surprised as it meant using at least one extra pitcher (probably). In the end, he did use 3 relievers.

After the game the interviewer asked Maddon whether he considered leaving Shields in and he said no-very firmly. What I liked was his reasoning which reflects his attention to detail and his multi-factor thinking. He noted that although Shields had thrown just 99 pitches, he had to use a lot of energy wiggling out of tough spots. He went on to explain the various factors that went into his decision based on the way Shields had pitched.

It is not a question of whether it was the right move or not. One could argue any number of possible alternatives. But listening to him, you see someone in absolute control of the situation with a definite view of the right approach. And reading analyses of the significance of pitch counts, one of the points often made is that it is not really the number of pitches but the circumstances in which they are thrown. Obviously Maddon buys into that and is not dogmatic about the number itself.

I hope I have some good news to report

bobr — Fri, 30 May 2008 16:28:54 -0000

when we return from our Durham trip. Actually, we took nyfaninlalaland's suggestion and will visit Charleston for two games, see the last round of the LPGA tournament there and then take in two Durham games next week. I doubt we'll make it to Columbus on the way back, but they are home next Wed. & Thurs., so you never know.

I suppose this belongs better in a fanshot, and I promise to read your instructions on how to use it, but am too lazy now, and generally so inept at the computer that I may not get it anyway. (added to get the 75 words)

Q & A with Sonnanstine at BP

bobr — Sun, 25 May 2008 22:09:52 -0000

It is subscription only. A nice interview, I think.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7572

I have to add words but think the interview stand by itself. I like Sonnanstine; I like the way he approaches the game and his intensity on the mound. Wouldn't you like to sit in on his hoped for conversation with Bannister?

This is not intended to reopen the conversation about Sonnanstine/Jackson. If both do what their supporters think they can do, the Rays will have two very useful pitchers, and that is a good thing. If only one of them succeeds, the Rays are still in good shape. If neither does, too bad, but probably not disastrous.

Watching Price

bobr — Fri, 23 May 2008 06:30:36 -0000

The game had a 1 1/2 hour rain delay, but once it started it was a beautiful evening.

The first pitch Price ever threw as a professional in a real game was a fastball strike low and over the outside corner. He proceeded to strike out his first batter looking on 5 pitches.

For the next 5 outs he looked ok but a bit shaky in his control. He walked the next batter and gave up a solid line drive hit in the second inning. I think it was that inning he was helped by a diving stop by the second baseman that was turned into a sharp DP.

But from innings 3-5 it seemed as if he had conquered whatever control problems he had experienced and threw almost all strikes. He did not strike out anyone in the third, and gave up a solid line drive hit on an 0-2 count, but otherwise seemed in control.

In his last 2 innings (#4-5) he struck out 3 men, including the last man he faced. Very few of his pitches were really far off the mark. We watched the 5th inning from behind the plate and someone with a gun had his fastball between 92-94 with the slider at 82.

It looked to us as if his pitches move and as if he pinpoints where to throw them.

All in all, an impressive first pro start at high A with 5 shutout innings, 1 walk, 3 hits and 4 Ks. Not overwhelming but very satisfactory, and he got the win, 2-0.

Incidentally, Wade Townsend pitched the 6th and 2 outs in the 7th. His 6th inning was fine with a K and no hard hit balls, but in the 7th he loaded the bases after getting a pop fly out by allowing 3 straight well struck hits. (One grounder probably should have been turned into an out by the shortstop but it got through.) He then struck out the next man (on a 3-2 pitch I think) and was relieved by Ryan Reid who struck out the one batter he faced that inning.

Reid finished the game, 2 1/3 innings, without allowing a run, but he walked a man and gave up a couple of hits as well as some very well hit balls deep into the outfield.

The story of course is Price, and it is a very promising story for the Rays.