I was an "early adopter" of Bill James and have always loved the quantitative side of the game.  I remember playing APBA baseball in the early 70's and calculating out OBP for players before drafting my teams - this was long before OBP was a reported stat.  I pay close attention to L/R splits and think that teams still don't do enough to leverage these data.  I also fully accept that "clutch" is largely chance and that over the length of a career a player's performance in clutch situations will likely match his overall stats pretty closely.  All of this is to say that I recognize that Emil Brown is not my type of player - I saw little reason for his acquisition and have felt since spring training that he should be a spot starter against lefties - period.

So I come today to praise Emil Brown.  I've decided to put aside the splits, ignore OBP, and purge "regression to the mean" and "small sample size" from my vocabulary for the time being.  Instead, I intend to simply sit back as an A's fan and appreciate what this guy has done in the first month of the season and enjoy it as long as it lasts.  Because more than being a stats guy, I'm an A's fan who wants them to win, and Brown has done nothing but help them do that.  On top of that, he seems like a really decent and humble guy - despite my love of the numbers, I also like to like they guys on my team.

Unrelated observations:  this team needs another infielder.  Crosby and Ellis need a day off and I'm not sure flipping around Murphy is enough, because you know that they're just going to pinch hit for him later in the game.  The A's had an unusually busy first month of the season and I think it's showing on those two guys.  Also, I'd lke to see Bowen get one start a week - there is no reason to grind Suzuki into the ground, and Bowen is a pretty productive backup.  Finally, I don't think this team can sustain Jack Cust in the OF for the full season.  This is why I really didn't understand the Thomas acquisition.  They pretty much have committed to have Cust "roam" the OF regularly, which scares me.

I see that the A's have scheduled 4 bobblehead days, but just two are named:  Buck and Suzuki.  So, who should be the next two bobbleheads for the 2008 season.  I was going to give my picks, but this is perfect poll fodder.

Apparently Bobby Kielty is ready to go - what to do now?

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...

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Geren was going to mix things up and keep guys on the bench fresh and guys in the lineup rested.  

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So Bud thinks those of us who protest the exclusive deal with DirecTV are "ridiculous".

http://www.tvpredictions.com/bud0304...

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Ellis and Chavez lead fan voting for Gold Gloves on ESPN.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/ballot?event_id=2561

Not surprising about Chavez, as his reputation is well-established.  And although the 2B voting is close, it is interesting that Ellis is getting some props nationally, especially since he missed the ALCS.

Kotsay is toward the bottom of the OFs.  No other A's listed.

Sportwriters and broadcasters are like cattle being led to slaughter - they just follow the the sound of the bell.  Once an idea catches hold - eg., "how are the A's doing it with their offense?" - you'll see the same story written by local writers, discussed ad nauseum on telecasts, and written up by national columnists.  There is a short story in today's USA Today about how the A's and Padres are winning with pitching and defense.  As with every other story of this nature, they cite the season totals and point out that the A's are lowest in batting average, slugging, etc.  But what they fail to mention is that before the break the A's were basically a .500 team that was struggling.  Since the break, they have an outstanding record and the offense has picked up considerably, as noted on the MLB website today:

"The offense came into Wednesday's game batting .274 after the break and averaging 5.2 runs per game."

God forbid that a writer should dig into the data for just a moment.  They might see that Thomas, Bradley, Kotsay, Payton, Ellis and Scutaro all have OPS's above .800 since the break, or that they have 5 players over .300 BA (and Bradley just below).  Or perhaps they would notice that the A's are 6th in the AL in scoring post-break (just two runs behind #4).

And not to ignore the much despised Run Differential.  Here are the post-break RD number and W/L differential for each team.  Notice the pattern:
       RD  W/L
Oak   +51  +19
Min   +49  +13
NYY   +37  +11
LAA   +24  +8
CLE   +19  +1
TX    +11   0
Det   +4   +3
CHI   -4   -2
Tor   -16  -5
Bal   -25  -4
Sea   -32  -4
KC    -57  -11
Bos   -59  -11
TB    -61  -4

I'm not arguing that the A's have a great offense, but for the past 8 weeks, they've been productive, with contributions up and down the lineup (Chavez being essentially the only exception).  Writers and broadcasters need to get their heads out, but I'm not couting on it.

Who would you want on the playoff roster, if the baseball gods were so kind as to allow the A's to make the playoffs?  I hope to see some moves by Aug. 31 to account for the 4-man rotation in the playoffs.

Here's what I'd like to see:
Kendall, Melhuse
Swisher, DJ
Ellis, Scutaro, Crosby, Chavez, Perez
Payton, Kielty, Kotsay, Bradley
Thomas

Zito, Haren, Loaiza, Blanton
Street, Duke, Calero, Gaudin, Kennedy, Halsey, Harden

This basically trades out Saarloos for DJ, gives you two lefties in the pen, and assumes that Harden can play a significant role.

Great win last night, but this offense still needs more pop.  The answer is just a few miles away in Sacramento.  Time to recall DJ.  He continues to hit like crazy.  This is not a AAAA player.  He was a RoY candidate last year until he slumped late in the season.  He's legit.  Crazy to keep throwing Swisher out there every night - he hit .188 in July after hitting .204 in June.  Time to say it - the emperor has no clothes.  At least in June he kept his OBA decent, but in July it was .310.  This is not an offense that can continue sustaining this kind of production, at least not when there are options.  

From today's Chronicle:

"Twice in the past three days -- both times Thomas has played -- Macha has used what looks like a good bet for Opening Night (Swisher and Payton in, Johnson out), though he would not confirm that."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2006/03/29/SPGTRHVPTQ1.DTL

This makes no sense to me.  If this is Macha's approach it's going to be a frustrating season.  It's a rote L-R move that isn't supported by past performance.  Last season's OPS versus lefties:

Johnson .799
Payton  .738
Swisher .635

I could buy an argument for starting Swisher over Payton to give a young guy a chance to demonstrate that he's improved his approach from the right side.  But it would be absurd to sit Johnson just because he's left-handed.  He has a chance to be a 25 HR/100 RBI guy with a nice OBP, but they seem intent on not handing him an everyday job.

If they really want the best lineup against a lefty, they should go with Kielty, Kotsay, and Bradley in the OF, Johnson at 1B and Thomas as DH.  But I'm OK with either Swisher or Payton in LF - just don't sit Johnson!