In the ten games before being recalled, Carter was batting .343/.442/.743, with 3 D's, 1 T, 3 HR's.  So let's take a guy who has been struggling offensively, coming off an injury, and is starting to break out - bring him to the majors and sit him on the damn bench.  It's not like Jackson has been killing the ball, or playing outstanding defense at 1b, for that matter.  It just seems like a criminal waste of talent to sit Carter on the bench.  Play him or send him back down.

I was an "early adopter" of Bill James and have always loved the quantitative side of the game.  I remember playing APBA baseball in the early 70's and calculating out OBP for players before drafting my teams - this was long before OBP was a reported stat.  I pay close attention to L/R splits and think that teams still don't do enough to leverage these data.  I also fully accept that "clutch" is largely chance and that over the length of a career a player's performance in clutch situations will likely match his overall stats pretty closely.  All of this is to say that I recognize that Emil Brown is not my type of player - I saw little reason for his acquisition and have felt since spring training that he should be a spot starter against lefties - period.

So I come today to praise Emil Brown.  I've decided to put aside the splits, ignore OBP, and purge "regression to the mean" and "small sample size" from my vocabulary for the time being.  Instead, I intend to simply sit back as an A's fan and appreciate what this guy has done in the first month of the season and enjoy it as long as it lasts.  Because more than being a stats guy, I'm an A's fan who wants them to win, and Brown has done nothing but help them do that.  On top of that, he seems like a really decent and humble guy - despite my love of the numbers, I also like to like they guys on my team.

Unrelated observations:  this team needs another infielder.  Crosby and Ellis need a day off and I'm not sure flipping around Murphy is enough, because you know that they're just going to pinch hit for him later in the game.  The A's had an unusually busy first month of the season and I think it's showing on those two guys.  Also, I'd lke to see Bowen get one start a week - there is no reason to grind Suzuki into the ground, and Bowen is a pretty productive backup.  Finally, I don't think this team can sustain Jack Cust in the OF for the full season.  This is why I really didn't understand the Thomas acquisition.  They pretty much have committed to have Cust "roam" the OF regularly, which scares me.

I see that the A's have scheduled 4 bobblehead days, but just two are named:  Buck and Suzuki.  So, who should be the next two bobbleheads for the 2008 season.  I was going to give my picks, but this is perfect poll fodder.

Apparently Bobby Kielty is ready to go - what to do now?

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...

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Geren was going to mix things up and keep guys on the bench fresh and guys in the lineup rested.  

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So Bud thinks those of us who protest the exclusive deal with DirecTV are "ridiculous".

http://www.tvpredictions.com/bud0304...

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Ellis and Chavez lead fan voting for Gold Gloves on ESPN.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/ballot?event_id=2561

Not surprising about Chavez, as his reputation is well-established.  And although the 2B voting is close, it is interesting that Ellis is getting some props nationally, especially since he missed the ALCS.

Kotsay is toward the bottom of the OFs.  No other A's listed.

Sportwriters and broadcasters are like cattle being led to slaughter - they just follow the the sound of the bell.  Once an idea catches hold - eg., "how are the A's doing it with their offense?" - you'll see the same story written by local writers, discussed ad nauseum on telecasts, and written up by national columnists.  There is a short story in today's USA Today about how the A's and Padres are winning with pitching and defense.  As with every other story of this nature, they cite the season totals and point out that the A's are lowest in batting average, slugging, etc.  But what they fail to mention is that before the break the A's were basically a .500 team that was struggling.  Since the break, they have an outstanding record and the offense has picked up considerably, as noted on the MLB website today:

"The offense came into Wednesday's game batting .274 after the break and averaging 5.2 runs per game."

God forbid that a writer should dig into the data for just a moment.  They might see that Thomas, Bradley, Kotsay, Payton, Ellis and Scutaro all have OPS's above .800 since the break, or that they have 5 players over .300 BA (and Bradley just below).  Or perhaps they would notice that the A's are 6th in the AL in scoring post-break (just two runs behind #4).

And not to ignore the much despised Run Differential.  Here are the post-break RD number and W/L differential for each team.  Notice the pattern:
       RD  W/L
Oak   +51  +19
Min   +49  +13
NYY   +37  +11
LAA   +24  +8
CLE   +19  +1
TX    +11   0
Det   +4   +3
CHI   -4   -2
Tor   -16  -5
Bal   -25  -4
Sea   -32  -4
KC    -57  -11
Bos   -59  -11
TB    -61  -4

I'm not arguing that the A's have a great offense, but for the past 8 weeks, they've been productive, with contributions up and down the lineup (Chavez being essentially the only exception).  Writers and broadcasters need to get their heads out, but I'm not couting on it.

Who would you want on the playoff roster, if the baseball gods were so kind as to allow the A's to make the playoffs?  I hope to see some moves by Aug. 31 to account for the 4-man rotation in the playoffs.

Here's what I'd like to see:
Kendall, Melhuse
Swisher, DJ
Ellis, Scutaro, Crosby, Chavez, Perez
Payton, Kielty, Kotsay, Bradley
Thomas

Zito, Haren, Loaiza, Blanton
Street, Duke, Calero, Gaudin, Kennedy, Halsey, Harden

This basically trades out Saarloos for DJ, gives you two lefties in the pen, and assumes that Harden can play a significant role.

Great win last night, but this offense still needs more pop.  The answer is just a few miles away in Sacramento.  Time to recall DJ.  He continues to hit like crazy.  This is not a AAAA player.  He was a RoY candidate last year until he slumped late in the season.  He's legit.  Crazy to keep throwing Swisher out there every night - he hit .188 in July after hitting .204 in June.  Time to say it - the emperor has no clothes.  At least in June he kept his OBA decent, but in July it was .310.  This is not an offense that can continue sustaining this kind of production, at least not when there are options.  

From today's Chronicle:

"Twice in the past three days -- both times Thomas has played -- Macha has used what looks like a good bet for Opening Night (Swisher and Payton in, Johnson out), though he would not confirm that."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2006/03/29/SPGTRHVPTQ1.DTL

This makes no sense to me.  If this is Macha's approach it's going to be a frustrating season.  It's a rote L-R move that isn't supported by past performance.  Last season's OPS versus lefties:

Johnson .799
Payton  .738
Swisher .635

I could buy an argument for starting Swisher over Payton to give a young guy a chance to demonstrate that he's improved his approach from the right side.  But it would be absurd to sit Johnson just because he's left-handed.  He has a chance to be a 25 HR/100 RBI guy with a nice OBP, but they seem intent on not handing him an everyday job.

If they really want the best lineup against a lefty, they should go with Kielty, Kotsay, and Bradley in the OF, Johnson at 1B and Thomas as DH.  But I'm OK with either Swisher or Payton in LF - just don't sit Johnson!

The A's seem to have a very conservative approach to DLing players.  That often leaves them undermanned - particularly since they are going with a 12 man pitching staff.  Kotsay really should be on the DL getting complete rest - how much has he played in the past week anyway?  By not DLing him or Hatteberg, they're shorthanded and can't even think of sitting guys (like Kielty) who are slumping.  And with Melhuse as the DH, they have NOTHING on the bench - Scutaro and Ginter!

They are going to wear down this roster so it will be beat up by the September stretch.  DL Kotsay and/or Hatteberg NOW.  The rest of the September schedule is relatively soft so they should be taking advantage and getting those guys healthy while not wearing everyone else down.

With Kotsay and Kielty hurting, is it time to bring Watson back?  Not to mention that neither one has been doing much recently.  Since the All-Star break, Kotsay's OPS has been .482 (!!) and Kielty has been .741.  With a weaker schedule in August, that seems to be the time to rest (or even shut down) these guys.  Watson continues to perform at AAA, so he's the most likely addition.

Baseball Prospectus mentions this:
The injuries to the outfielders in Oakland might be the best chance we have to see the entire organization--front office, field management, medical staff and scouting--all at work. Mark Kotsay was able to get back on the field despite some lingering soreness from his chronic back condition, helping cover a distinct lack of outfield depth at the major-league level. Kotsay went 0-for-4 on the day, looking less than 100% at bat and in the field. When Kotsay and Bobby Kielty, also dealing with lower back pain, head to Minnesota, the team will have to get creative. If these injuries linger, the team may have to get creative in the month of August. Marco Scutaro is likely to see himself back in the outfield, backed up by Keith Ginter. That's hardly an ideal lineup for a team chasing the Angels, so a reach into the minors could come. The timing of a visit to Minnesota could hardly be worse, but its creativity we love to see from the A's, isn't it?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4284

Everyone's favorite whipping boy is ripping it up at Sacto.  Is it time to recall him and give him a chance to play every day?  Neither Ellis nor Scutaro is currently providing anything offensively.  Ginter is the guy we got to provide some RH power.  Let's give him another chance to do it.

In 13 games he's up to 3 HR, 12 RBI and hitting over .350.

I know things are not going well, but take a look at the following:

Pitcher A  .758 OOPS   1.45 WHIP  8/13 QS
Pitcher B  .688 OOPS   1.29 WHIP  7/13 QS
Pitcher C  .654 OOPS   1.34 WHIP  8/12 QS
Pitcher D  .739 OOPS   1.34 WHIP  6/12 QS
Pitcher E  .654 OOPS   1.18 WHIP   4/7 QS

Obviously, because of the low number of starts, Pitcher E (i.e., the best) is Harden.  But I'd probably rank the other four:
C
B
D
A
Pitcher C has a little higher WHIP than B, but a lower opponent's OPS, and a higher rate of Quality Starts.

Pitcher C is Haren
Pitcher B is Zito
Pitcher D is Mulder
Pitcher A is Hudson

So right now, injury aside, Harden, Haren and Zito are outpitching Mulder and Hudson.

Of course, the most surprising is the following:

Pitcher F  .582 OOPS  1.04 WHIP  11/12 QS

Take another look at those numbers and then wrap your brain around the fact that those are from Mark Redman!

What is the value of an extended rehab assignment when the player is playing his regular defensive position (i.e., not DHing), playing a full game, and hitting the hell out of the ball?  Both Crosby and Swisher appear ready to come back - particularly Swisher, since he's performing at a higher level.  This team needs offense - even if these guys are not 100%, they can contribute TODAY.

P.S.  Dan Johnson continues to smash the ball around AAA ballparks.  You can wait until after the All-Star break and save a year of arbitration eligibility, or you can bring him up now and try to inject some life into a pathetic offense.

I attended an ALS fundraiser this weekend where they had a silent auction.  Lots of sports memorabilia, but since it was in New York, most of the items was Yankees related.  However, one was a signed early photo of Catfish Hunter.  After I eyed the Catfish item was some nostalgia, my astute spouse put a bid on it and won it for me as an early birthday gift.

I hope my post works.

They should bring back these unis!

Granted, top major league relievers tend to come from the minor league starting ranks.  But the A's are getting some great performances by minor league relievers - especially at Midland:

Sacto -
Harikkala  12 IP  1.50 ERA (2 BB/9 K)
Sylvester  11.2   3.09     (7/12)
Ramos      10     3.60     (7/11)
Reames     10     0.90     (6/12)
Gwyn        9     2.00     (6/12)
Mabeus and Flores are struggling

Midland -
Fahrner   9.2 IP  0.00 ERA (5 BB,/13 K)
Brannan   9       0.00     (2/11)
Kohn      8.2     2.08     (0/14)
Mattioni  8.1     2.16     (2/10)
Weis      8       1.13     (2/2)
Garcia    7.2     1.17     (5/12)