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Around SBN: Johan Santana's No-Hitter Inspires Field Stormer

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boolemaster

Jul 08, 2008 Sep 07, 2010 4 175

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McCovey Chronicles Plate Discipline and Josh Willingham

 


A quick note before moving to the main point of this post.  I was going to create a fanpost that numerically proved what we have all been watching since the season began (and then some, for players who have been on the team the last few years): The Giants swing at an inordinate amount of pitches outside of the strike zone.  But, since this is a Captain Obvious type of observation, I thought I'd just post some stats that shed light on the problem, make a few observations, and then move on to something that might elicit some reader response.

The following stats are taken from FanGraph's Plate Discipline page and are based on a minimum of 30 PA's and highlight the Giants' O-Swing %.  For those of you unfamiliar with this stat, O-Swing % is the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.

 

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Name O-Swing% 
Bengie Molina 48.00%
Pablo Sandoval 45.70%
Kevin Frandsen 39.30%
Barry Zito 38.50%
Nate Schierholtz 37.40%
Juan Uribe 33.50%
John Bowker 32.70%
Eli Whiteside 31.20%
Rich Aurilia 30.30%
Eugenio Velez 30.00%
Aaron Rowand 29.80%
Andres Torres 29.00%
Emmanuel Burriss 28.90%
Randy Winn 28.70%
Tim Lincecum 28.60%
Travis Ishikawa 27.50%
Edgar Renteria 26.00%
Matt Cain 25.70%
Matthew Downs 21.70%
Fred Lewis 19.40%

 

A few observations:

 

  1. The average O-Swing % for the NL is 24.48%.
  2. Bengie and Pablo rank dead last and next to last of all qualified NL players.  Alfonso Soriano ranks 3rd at 36.7%. 
  3. Only 9 qualified NL players have an O-Swing % higher than 30%.  Therefore, based on their O-Swing %, the Giants, on a nightly basis, field a lineup of some of the least disciplined hitters in the NL.
  4. Matt Cain is better at recognizing a strike than almost every other player on the team and has been performing at a similar rate for his entire career.
  5. Kevin Frandsen swinging at nearly 40% of the pitches thrown outside the zone may have played a large role in his demotion and Down's promotion (especially, given the fact that only Lewis swings at less pitches outside of the zone than Downs). Also, Frandsen's career O-Swing % is 32%.
  6. If Fred Lewis could make more contact, he would be a very dangerous hitter.  Unfortunately, his 82% Z-contact rate (Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone) puts him in the bottom 10 of qualified NL hitters.  
  7. Only Renteria ranks in the top 35 (#34) of qualified NL hitters for Z-Contact %.
  8. The Giants, as a team, have the highest O-Swing % (32.3%, the only team above 30%) and, consequently, see the least amount of pitches in the strike zone (47.8%) of any team in baseball.

Now to my main point, if you're still here:  If he's available, the Giants should trade for Josh Willingham.  

A quick look at his Plate Discipline numbers:
2009 O-Swing %: 16.4 
Career O-Swing %: 18.0

Some factors in his favor: 

  1. On a team desperate for disciplined hitters, Willingham would easily rate as the most disciplined player on this team.
  2. He bats RH and the Giants need a right handed hitter.
  3. He can play the OF and 1B.  Hell, he could even back up at C if absolutely necessary!
  4. He's only making 2.95 million this year and is arbitration eligible for the next 2 years. FanGraphs says he has been worth 9.9 million dollars this year.  Can you say value?
  5. He would have the highest OPS (.978) of anyone on our team.  His career OPS (.852) would be #2 on this year's team, so even a regression would benefit our team.

With all of the talk of the Giants going after Dunn and Nick Johnson, this seems to me to be an incredible no-brainer. Though he is an injury risk, this is a risk the Giants should take. I can't imagine that the Nationals would want that much in return for him, but given that his name hasn't been brought up too much (mark me down as very surprised that Hank Schulman didn't mention him at all here) maybe he isn't available. I don't know what the Giants would offer in return for Willingham, but I think he could be a great value for this team and it would be shrewd of Sabean to pluck him from the NationaLOLs.

Ok, that's all I've got.  Clearly, I value disciplined hitting and think the Giants would be better off with more players like Willingham.  Few things are more frustrating than watching hitters swing at bad pitches. Disciplined hitters swing at better pitches and force pitcher's to throw more pitches, both of which are good things.  Please comment on any of the above. Disagree, submit counter-arguments, etc... Just show a little R-E-S-P-E-C-T, Aretha style.  
GO GIANTS!

95 comments  |  5 recs | 

Exactly three years ago tomorrow, Vinny Castilla was released by the Padres. At the time Castilla was sitting at .232/.260/.319 in 254 AB's. Our own grisled veteran Rich Aurilia now owns the following line in 104 AB's: .202/.252/.279. Understatement of the day: Those numbers are bad.

Aurilia will be released soon. Maybe not tomorrow, but very soon. When that happens, my guess is the team's reaction will be similar to the Padres' reaction with one possible inclusion to the standard lines: "Richie was a great clubhouse guy who's had a fine career. He's a true professional and no one in the history of the game has sniffed smelling salts better. We'll never forget the year he had in 2001, hitting 37 home runs and going through nearly 700 packets of smelling salts. This was a truly remarkable achievement that was unfortunately overshadowed by the success of the Giants in the earlier parts of this decade."

almost 3 years ago 2231228014_e373f9261e_o_tiny boolemaster 12 comments

McCovey Chronicles Kieschnick's Stance...Projectable???

I don't know how many of you have seen Kieschnick's batting stance, but it seems eerily similar to that of Nate Schierholtz.  I'm no expert, but his back elbow is even less elevated than that of Nate's and one of the things that has always concerned me about Schierholtz is that it doesn't seem like he has the stance to hit for power.  After watching Kieschnick hit the homer tonight, I was blown away by his bat speed.  But, is this a stance that projects in the upper levels or will he have to adjust?  Off the top of my head, I can't think of any major leaguers who don't elevate their back elbow, so I would think that this will have to be addressed as he progresses through the system.

16 comments  | 

McCovey Chronicles Is there anybody out there?

First time poster, long time troll.  Here goes it:

For the last few days I've thought alot about the Giants offensive woes (yeah, it's getting near finals time, so procrastination is very therapeutic!).  The Giants' offense ranks last in the following categories: HR, 2B, R, H, RBI, OBP, SLG and OPS.  But, they do lead the NL in infield hits (37 and counting!).  In looking at how this team is constructed, I've finally accepted that Sabean and Bochy have to go.  What looked like an aggressive offseason strategy of acquiring players before anyone else had a chance to woo them (see Renteria, Edgar; Johnson, Randy; and Howry, Bobby) has turned into a successful attempt to waste money for no good reason.  For half the price of acquiring a mediocre at best SS, we could have purchased a gold glove 2b who actually has productive AB's (Hudson).  Now, Bochy is talking about benching Ishikawa permanently, moving Sandoval to 1B and having Jose..er...Juan Uribe play 3B.  Unbelievable. Nobody messes with player's heads better than the Gigantes.  Sanchez, Sandoval, Burriss, Ishikawa, Lewis, Schierholtz, Frandsen, the list goes on and on, are all players who really have no clue what the organization expects of them.  Look at Sandoval, one day he's a C, next day he's a 3B, now he's a 1B?  This guy should stick to one position and focus exclusively on hitting.  Why is this obvious to me and nearly every other fan, but not Bochy?  Also, look at the stats of our guys at AAA. Frandsen, Bowker, Guzman, Rohlinger and Downs are tearing the cover off the ball.   Granted, there's a reason players are in AAA, but you shouldn't sacrifice a young player's advancement at the expense of guys like Rich Aurilia.  Unfortunately, signing Rowand and Renteria has completely hamstrung this organization (I don't include Zito here because I'm convinced that was Magowan's call).  As of right now, the roster should consist of some, if not all, of the following players:

 c molina/holm

1b ishikawa/guzman

2b/ss frandsen/burriss

3b sandoval/rohlinger

lf lewis/schierholtz

cf winn/torres

rf schierholtz/bowker

bench: uribe

this team would be so much more interesting to watch and we would have saved a ton of money, too.  wiping out rowand and renteria's contracts alone, saves the giants an avg. of 20 mil per season.  can you believe that? 

 now, here's the major problem:  who has the guts to fire bochy and sabean?  the answer, nobody.  maybe magowan, if he was still in charge, but i can't see bill neukom doing anything until after the season. so, we will be forced to watch bochy insist on inserting the vets into the game and watch another season go down the drain without learning anything new about our younger guys.  even worse, sabean might make a bonehead trade because we are in "playoff contention." could you imagine alderson and noonan getting shipped to the yankees for swisher or nady? or, maybe for adam dunn...oh wait, we could've had him without giving up anything, but we signed renteria instead for the same amount!  (dunn currently on pace for 60hr, 152rbi, 147bb, 98r, 1.112ops)

 i'd love to see bobby evans promoted to GM.  our minor league system was nothing until he arrived. now, it's ranked in the top 5 or 6 in all off baseball.  prior to that sabean had been handling the draft responsibilities and you saw where that got us (unless you are enthralled by guys like charlie culberson).  what i don't know is if evans is a sabean guy or not.  any knowledge about this? 

 i'm really curious to know what you think.  what changes should be made?  who is the right person to turn this organization around? who would have the guts to bench rowand, release aurilia and promote some of the youngsters? i hate to say this, but the dodgers just went through a major reshuffling and have come out on top because of it.  remember, they signed juan pierre and andruw jones.  joe torre benched both of those guys even though they were getting paid astronomical amounts.  they also played loney, kemp and ethier alot last year and that is paying huge dividends now.  I want to support an organization that has a sound philosophy and sticks with it. This organization and it's fanbase is so confused and it's because there are no leaders at the top.  It's time for a new era of Giants baseball.  When will that era begin?  

49 comments  |