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boom_roasted

joined Oct 20, 2009 last login Nov 09, 2010 posts 8 comments 445

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As you all know, David Wright is off to a great start and is close to his 2009 HR total. However, I couldn't help but notice a disturbing trend: swinging at more pitches out of the zone.

I would like to assume this is something stupid that the coaches have told him. Hopefully it's just a small sample size anomaly. Any thoughts?

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about 2 years ago boom_roasted 9 comments

Jose Reyes Responds to Stupid Questions with Common Sense

Per Rubin:

When asked if he thought hitters' struggles at Citi Field would make free agents think twice before signing on with the Mets, Reyes scoffed. "If you’re a hitter, you’re gonna hit," Reyes said. "You can hit here."

over 2 years ago boom_roasted 21 comments

Cardinals Offer Holliday At Least 8 Years

I think this was mentioned in the comments somewhere, but the Cardinals offered Holliday 8 years at $16mm for year ($128 mm). Wow. I guess that is cheaper than what he would get for a shorter deal, but why 8 years?

Edit: Hah RIP Shea beat me.

over 2 years ago boom_roasted 12 comments

Bay offer rumored to be heavily backloaded

In Bart Hubbuch's NY Post article about the Mets offer to Bay, he mentions that the offer the Mets made to Bay is heavily backloaded. Hubbuch goes on to say that this is a common Minaya practice, citing Beltran's contract. This proves Minaya is unable to be forward thinking in his management of the Mets (or possibly unwilling, since he knows that he has no future).

Apparently, the final year of the Bay offer is worth $20 million. Jason Bay hasn't been worth $20 mil since 2005 and 2006. He almost certainly will not be at any point during a possible Mets tenure. With his already poor defense declining, Bay is likely to be worth much less than $20 mil in 2013. This puts the Mets in a terrible position during this time, since Bay will have little trade value at this cost. However, if he would be making a little less that season, he could be an attractive candidate to DH in the AL, giving him some trade value.

I'm not sure what the purpose of this action is. This does not help the Mets stay under the luxury tax threshold, as average value of total contract is used, not the actual value for that season. Perhaps the Wilpons don't want to pay him a lot next season? However, this means that they will be paying Bay extra money when Wright and Reyes get the raises they deserve. Don't be surprised if the Mets then trade Wright or Reyes for money purposes and blame it on some stupid intangible like "not a winner."

over 2 years ago boom_roasted 36 comments

Rick Reilly on Sportscenter

.... Soooooooo bad.

over 2 years ago boom_roasted 2 comments

AAOP: Half-assed offseason plan

by boom_roasted on Nov 16, 2009 4:34 PM EST on Amazin' Avenue

I wasn't going to do one of these because I spent my weekend in a drunken stupor and because I have a shit-ton of work to do this week. However, I was inspired by Evan's post last night and realized that schoolwork does not excuse me from proving that any scrub can do a much better job than Omar Minaya and the Mets FO. So, without further rambling, I present my quickly thought-out plan for the Mets' 2010 off-season.

Lineup
Position	Player	Age	Salary	WAR
Catcher	Josh Thole	23	0.50	0.50
1st Base	Nick Johnson	31	7.00	2.66
2nd Base	Felipe Lopez	29	6.00	2.28
3rd Base	David Wright	27	10.00	5.98
Shortstop	Jose Reyes	26	9.00	3.53
Left Field	Matt Holliday	30	18.00	6.42
Centerfield	Mike Cameron	36	9.00	3.68
Right Field	Carlos Beltran	32	18.50	4.67
Bench
Position	Player	Age	Contract
Catcher	Ramon Castro	34	1.20	0.93
Infield	Adam Everett	35	1.00	0.73
Utility	Daniel Murphy	25	0.50	0.55
Outfield	Angel Pagan	28	2.00	1.38
1st Base / OF	Nick Evans	24	0.50	0.50
		29.23	83.20	33.79

Pitching Rotation
Player	Age	Salary	WAR
Johan Santana	31	21.00	3.92
Mike Pelfrey	26	0.50	1.83
Oliver Perez	28	12.00	0.65
John Maine	28	2.60	1.39
Brian Bannister	29	2.60	2.34
Rich Harden	28	9.00	2.32
Bullpen
Player	Age	Salary	WAR
Joakim Soria	25	3.00	1.88
Kiko Calero	35	2.50	0.67
Pedro Feliciano	33	2.75	0.38
Bobby Parnell	25	0.50	0.50
Sean Green	30	0.50	0.54
Kelvim Escobar	33	2.00	0.50
	29.25	58.95	16.92

Totals
Average Age	29.24
Total Salary	147.15
Total WAR	50.71

Trade Francisco Rodriguez, Jeff Francoeur and $2mm per annum for the remainder of BB-Rod's contract to the Kansas City Royals for Joakim Soria, Brian Bannister, Mike Aviles, and a prospect or two. I would research the Royals' farm system if I had time, but I assume they have a bunch of assets since they have a high draft pick every year. This trade gives the Mets some more cash by clearing the horrible BB-Rod deal. However, money may need to be spent on a world-class PR firm after this deal. Brian Bannister studies Pitch F/X numbers so it is great to have him back.

Sign Matt Holliday to a 6 year deal worth $108mm (~$18mm per year). Holliday is the best player on the free agent market and is good at baseball.

Sign Mike Cameron to a 1 year deal worth $9mm. Cameron is getting older but is still one of the best defensive players in the game, as evidenced by his 10.3 UZR/150 last year. With Holliday and Cameron on the team, move Carlos Beltran to right field to protect his ailing knees. This gives the Mets a defensive outfield that is almost as good as the Mariners last year (Endy, Gutierrez, Ichiro) and is much better with the bat.

Sign Rich Harden to a one year deal worth up to $9mm with incentives plus a team option for $11mm in 2011.

Sign Nick Johnson to a one year deal worth $7mm. Nick Johnson is a good hitter who gets on base a lot. He will play first base for 2010 before Ike Davis is ready to be a starter.

Sign Felipe Lopez for 3 years $18mm. I wanted Placido Polanco but he is a type A. Lopez is only a type B. With Lopez now starting at 2nd base trade Castillo for whatever. Maybe throw him into that Royals trade and get another player in return. Probably add $2mm to the payroll to pay for his contract.

Bring back Ramon Castro for about $1.2mm. He will back up Thole. Keep Omir in Buffalo.

Sign Adam Everett for $1mm. He plays good defense and will be a much better backup for Reyes than Cora, Valdez, Hernandez group. Everett posted a 13.6 and 11.2 UZRs/150 the past two seasons. Not what he once was but still pretty good. His value actually improves when he hits less next year.

Bring back Murphy, Pagan, and Tatis for the bench. Tatis has been decent the past two seasons (1.5 and 1.6 WAR) and is very versatile. He can competently play defense at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF.

Sign Kiko Calero for 2yrs $5mm. Kiko was excellent last season for the Fish, with a 2.56 FIP.

Sign Kelvim Escobar for a one year contract that could potentially be worth $2mm. Escobar was excellent as a starter in 2006-07 for the Angels before getting hurt.

Keep Feliciano, Parnell, and Green in the pen. Use either Perez or Maine as the long-man/spot starter.

Guys in Buffalo include: Santos, Carter, Evans... wait never mind.

Why waste $1.5mm on Tatis? Nick Evans gets his spot on the team.

Other guys in Buffalo: Valdez, Sullivan, Figueroa (if no one else signs him), Socks! (I feel bad doing that to him), F!, Stoner, maybe some guy like Shawn Hill, and some other people I don't feel like thinking about right now. Maybe Jon Niese will start in Buffalo, or maybe he'll make the rotation in Spring Training. I'm not sure what they would do with the pitching then, but it will be enjoyable when you see all those stupid articles about how "the Mets have too much pitching."

*Total Salary column includes all 2010 salaries + $1mm for Putz, $2mm for BB-Rod, and $2mm for Luis. Contract information from the indispensable Cot's Baseball Contracts. New salaries are some random number that I thought sounded good and probably is a terrible estimation.

**WAR totals are computed from a 3-year weighted WAR (5-4-3). This doesn't really work well for guys like Reyes, Beltran, Santana, Maine, Perez, etc who missed significant time due to injury last season, but I used it anyway. I have a feeling that Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Santana will be higher, and Holliday will be slightly lower (but still awesome nonetheless). I made up some numbers for guys like Thole, Parnell, Evans, and Escobar. WAR totals taken from the equally indispensable Fangraphs.

***There were supposed to be colors and organization on those charts. Unfortunately, I suck at the internets and it didn't work. (I just need to convert the spreadsheet to jpg or something but I don't have time for that.)

Later addendum: try to sign Aroldis Chapman.

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Howard > A-Rod?!?!?!?!?

Neyer linked to a WS preview by Philly Daily News writer Bill Conlin. Conlin compared the teams the "right way," by matching the players up by their position in the batting order.

Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary (.296 OBP), Conlin thinks Jeter and Rollins are even.

And apparently Howard is better than A-Rod because he won a ring or something like that.

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