http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/YouTube-of-the-Day-Vivi-Manu-Juga-Ginobili?urn=nba,92315

i assume most of y'all have on this site have seen this?

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http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-32-308/A-Professional-Gambler-s-Take-on-the-Tim-Donaghy-Scandal.html

Really good interview.  Here's his answer on general nba tactics where he mentions popovich kickin ass.  he also is a big fan tactically of hack a shaq.

With the amount of basketball you watch, and the systematic way you analyze it, you must have all kinds of insight into the game that most of us don't have. I'm not looking for gambling tips here, but in general, can you share some knowledge? Like, is this or that coach exceptionally good or bad? Who's your MVP? Are there tactics you think are great or terrible, like Hack-a-Shaq?
As far as insights go, I think teams that are losing tend to wait too long to foul. I also think that if the rules for "hack a Shaq or hack a Ben" aren't changed, teams should really consider fouling players who hit less than 45% of their free throws even when winning a game between the four-minute mark and the two-minute mark of the fourth quarter.

One tactic that I feel is pretty silly is the "foul to give." A lot of teams use this really liberally and will even foul when there is a difference in the game clock to shot clock. For example say there is a four-second differential between the shot and game clock and a team will still take "foul to give." This is foolish because it eliminates the last four seconds whereby the defending team could then get the ball and have a chance to score.

Another clock management example I hate is when teams don't try to get a shot off in the last 30-39 seconds of a quarter, there are a lot of teams who seem to waste these seconds.

Both of these are pretty basic game situations, but you'd be surprised how many teams eliminate extra offensive possessions as if it's their job.

The flip side of that are the teams/players who do a great job of garnering extra possessions, my numbers tell me the Hornets and the Spurs do this best.

The best coach in the league (and its not even close) is Gregg Popovich. He is without peer in terms of how well he manages a game, as well as prepares his team. It's really not even close, he is just that much better than every other coach in the league. If you are ever unsure of what the correct strategy is in a certain situation, look to the Spurs. If they are doing it, it's probably the right strategy.

There are a lot of coaches who do a poor job with what I call the mathematics of the game, but to be fair, maybe they are better at other aspects of their job like motivation or player development.

However, I have a hard time believing that Doc Rivers could ever make up for his in-game strategy with his ability to motivate or develop players. I would like to have seen how the Celtics would have fared this year if they didn't hire Tom Thibodeau to install a great defensive system. If Popovich is the guy you lean to if you are unsure of what to do, Rivers is certainly the guy you look to if you want to know what NOT to do.

As far as MVP goes, I am not even sure what criteria the NBA uses to define its MVP award. If you go by the last few years, especially the years Nash won and use the "guy who means the most to his team" definition. I'd have to go with LeBron, Garnett, or even Chris Paul over Kobe.

I'd like to see how far the Cavs would go if Kobe and LeBron switched teams.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Awards_080516&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1

If New Orleans has the ball with 25 seconds or less left, Popovich simply fouls intentionally so he can get the ball back for the Spurs. This should be a Eureka! moment for other coaches, and I expect it will be the league's most widely copied tactic next year.

Hollinger has possibly thought this thing out more thoroughly than I have, but seems to definitively think it's a good tactic.  What do you all think?  Matt, you thought this stuff out any?  If a given teams def vs. opponents likely 24 sec or less offense has a likely points per possession output of X (something like 0.5 per possesion perhaps) will getting a 60% or less free throw shooter free throws plus possesion back definitively a good play?

Not thinking too much research into it, but that seems legit:

case A: 1 possession for opponent at 0.5 *2 = 1points +/- per possession

  0 possesions for you

average = 1point for opponent

case B: opponent possession = free 2 free throws at 0.6 = 1.2pp possession

             your possession =- 0.5+/-ish x2 or 3 points = -1point

so the average of case B is almost nil, compared to about a point a possession for the other team.

Anyone see any faulty logic in this?

I concede my maths here could be off/too simplistic.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=All-Defense&a mp;CMP=ILC-INHEAD

I understand this site is spurs-centric so i'll throw the spurs stuff in here.  

The most startling conclusions Hollinger/Hollinger's research suggests (to me at least) are the Baron Davis and Jermaine O'neal (dpoy in his opinion, over Duncan) nods.

Am I missing something here. Baron f**king davis? I'ma check 82games now, make sure i'm not missing something here.

POINT GUARDS

Honorable mention: Tony Parker, Spurs; Jason Kidd, Nets; Chauncey Billups, Pistons; Jarrett Jack, Trail Blazers.

Parker had the best overall points saved at the position (4.6 per 40 minutes, 285.1 for the season), but that's pushing it. You'll notice that teammates Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen and Tim Duncan also had very high scores, and the answer why is pretty clear -- Tony and Manu are riding Bowen and Duncan's defensive coattails since they're usually on the court at the same time. Parker is an underrated defender, actually, but we have to take his score with a grain of salt here.

The coaches probably will vote Billups (3.2, 199.7) and Kidd (2.1, 146.6) to the team, because that's what they do every year, and both certainly have their strong points -- they're big enough to defend shooting guards and Kidd is as good as anyone at bothering post players while still getting back to his man. But both have trouble with small, quick guards, which is why a couple of other guys rate higher. Jack (2.1, 146.6) is an up-and-comer who also warrants mentioning.

Third team: Baron Davis, Warriors (3.3, 172.2)
As weird as it feels to put up a Warrior for all-defense consideration, Davis combines the size of Kidd and Billups with the quickness to pressure the ball and create havoc in passing lanes.

The only caveat here is that he didn't dial up the intensity every night, especially when Golden State played its five-guys-stand-around-and-watch version of zone defense; that's why two other players ended up ahead of him.

Second team: Rajon Rondo, Celtics (5.3, 213.8)
I have a feeling he's going to be on this list for many, many years. Rondo's cat-like quickness and surprising length make him a capable defender at either backcourt spot, and help make up for his obvious deficiencies at the offensive end.

I'm a little skittish about ranking Rondo this high when he played so much less than the others, but per-minute he was No. 1 among point guards in points saved.

First team: Devin Harris, Mavericks (4.4, 217.9)
What's so impressive about Harris' performance is that he did much of it while playing out of position. Paired with Jason Terry in a small backcourt, Harris often had to defend opposing shooting guards.

At 6-foot-3 with a slight build, this was a challenge, but Harris' quickness and determination helped him overcome it. Should the Spurs and Mavs meet in the conference finals, the faceoff between him and Parker -- two of the league's quickest players -- should be especially entertaining.

SHOOTING GUARD

Honorable mention: Raja Bell, Suns; Trenton Hassell, Timberwolves; Manu Ginobili, Spurs; Kirk Hinrich, Bulls.

Bell (2.1, 148.7) is a master thespian and the best in the league at drawing offensive fouls away from the ball. As distasteful as it might be that ref-baiting plays such a huge role in his arsenal, one must admit it's effective. That said, I think a few guys are a little better at on-ball defense.

Ginobili (4.2, 209.9) is a seriously underrated defender and perhaps the league's best at deflecting passes thrown by his man, but as with Parker his score overstates his contribution considerably thanks to Bowen and Duncan.

Hinrich (0.9, 61.0) has a great reputation but gets hurt here because he defends shooting guards almost exclusively; he'd probably rate much better if he could defend the point.

Hassell (1.5, 80.5) looked like the next Bowen three years ago but has slipped a bit since.

Third team: Kobe Bryant, Lakers (3.2, 254.4)
I'm as surprised by this one as you are; I had always felt Bryant turned it on and off at the defensive end, but apparently it was on a lot more than it was off this year.

His numbers were fairly impressive considering all the heavy lifting he was doing at the other end, and the fact that he came into the year cold after recuperating from knee surgery.

Second team: Anthony Parker, Raptors (3.4, 198.8)
One of the year's biggest surprises was that Parker was able to come over from Europe and establish himself as a defensive stopper right away.

He helped the Raptors post a substantial defensive improvement that led directly to their Atlantic Division title.

First team: Bruce Bowen, Spurs (7.1, 426.3)
Obviously Bowen is a fantastic one-on-one defender, and considering he had the best per-minute and overall "points saved" scores in the league this year, apparently he hasn't lost much at 35.

I cheated a little by putting him at shooting guard instead of small forward, because there wasn't an overwhelming first-team candidate here and there were several at small forward.

SMALL FORWARD

Honorable mention: Rasual Butler, Hornets; Josh Howard, Mavericks; Ron Artest, Kings; Shawn Marion, Suns.

A lot of people have talked up Marion (1.4, 98.2) for Defensive Player of the Year, but I think this overstates his case considerably. Above average? Sure. Excellent? Maybe. Elite? C'mon. While I agree it's impressive that Marion can take turns at power forward despite standing 6-7 and weighing 43 pounds, and that his ability to do so helps fuel the Suns' fast-break attack, there are better defenders at his position.

Howard (2.5, 147.7) is a strong defender on a team laden with other solid defenders, which means the numbers may understate his contribution. Unfortunately, small forward is a very crowded field this year so he still doesn't make the cut.

Artest (2.2, 140.1) made a huge impact on the Kings' defense a year ago but his focus seemed to wander on some nights this season, preventing him from cracking my top three. Also, it sure seems to me like he was more effective before the hand-checking rules came in.

Butler's (4.0, 206.1) numbers are shockingly good, but there's an asterisk: He played a lot fewer minutes than some of the other guys on this list, and a lot of it came when the Hornets stopped running and just tried to bore opponents into submission. He would have cracked the list at shooting guard, but not here.

Third team: Luol Deng, Bulls (2.8, 204.9)
In a mild upset, Deng had the best numbers of any Chicago defender; since the Bulls lead the league in defensive efficiency, that's no mean feat. (Side note: Chicago was third during the competitive part of the season, but passed Houston and San Antonio in the past couple of days.)

Deng's numbers make sense, though -- though unspectacular, his size (6-9, 220 pounds) and quickness make him a tough guy to get shots against, and he's big enough to defend the power forward spot when Chicago goes small.

Second team: Tayshaun Prince, Pistons (2.7, 196.8)
It's ironic that he's known best for a shot block, because the 6-9 string bean actually isn't much of a shot-blocker -- just 0.7 per game for his career. But his length allows him to play a step off opponents and still bother their shots, and he's quick enough to defend smaller players on switches without a problem.

Minus Big Ben and with Rasheed at less than full strength, Prince's contributions were more notable than ever this season.

First team: Shane Battier, Rockets (4.4, 322.7)
Among perimeter players, Bowen is the best one-on-one defender, but Battier is the best team defender. It's tremendously helpful to have a small forward who can guard the opponent's best player, then sink down in rotation and block a shot underneath or get a steal in the passing lanes.

Battier is also a master of taking charges, and his ability to slide over to the power forward spot and defend just as effectively makes Houston that much more flexible.

POWER FORWARD

Honorable mention: Tony Battie, Magic; Kevin Garnett, Timberwolves; Jorge Garbajosa, Raptors; Rasheed Wallace, Pistons.

Wallace (2.4, 142.2) would be a second-teamer most years but wasn't always in shape or fully healthy this season, somewhat reducing his contribution.

Garnett (2.2, 167.7) is annually outstanding, of course, and could just as easily have been a third-teamer, but I was a little surprised his numbers weren't better considering the bad backup effect should have really helped him.

Garbajosa (3.1, 146.7) was Toronto's frontcourt stopper for much of the year and often found himself checking small forwards in a huge frontcourt (with Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani or Bosh and Rasho Nesterovic), making it even more impressive that he put up such good numbers.

Battie's numbers were excellent (4.2, 157.3) but he also missed a big chunk of the season, so I had to grudgingly leave him off the third team.

Third team: Anderson Varejao, Cavaliers (2.8, 131.7)
The Cavs were a pleasant surprise at the defensive end this season, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, and Sideshow Bob was a huge reason why. Varejao's penchant for drawing charges is becoming the stuff of legend, although refs may be catching on to his embellishments.

But the less-recognized defensive talent of Varejao's is the ability to switch out against smaller players on screen-and-roll plays and hold his own.

Second team: Chuck Hayes, Rockets (6.8, 282.5)
Perhaps the most underrated defender in basketball at this point, Hayes is way undersized for a power forward (6-6) but is so strong and determined that it doesn't matter. Several opponents have tried to take advantage of the height differential against him on the blocks; few have succeeded, mostly because they can't move an inch against him.

The one thing Hayes (and Jason Collins, below) gets docked for is that he can use his fouls recklessly because he's not an important star -- a luxury the two first-teamers in the frontcourt don't have. That makes it much easier for him to post impressive per-minute numbers.

First team: Tim Duncan, Spurs (5.8, 384.8)
Yes, I'm cheating again -- I'll get to the reason why in a minute. Suffice it to say we had two centers worthy of being on the first team and no deserving power forwards. Duncan doesn't get mentioned a lot in Defensive Player of the Year debates because he has zero flair to his game, but his defensive numbers were ridiculously good.

As I keep saying year after year, his ability to block shots without ever leaving his feet or getting caught out of position is both incredibly impressive and vastly underrated. It's also part of the reason why Bowen can be so aggressive on the perimeter -- he knows Timmy's got his back.

CENTER

Honorable mention: Ben Wallace, Bulls; Emeka Okafor, Bobcats; Alonzo Mourning, Heat; Dwight Howard, Magic.

At any other position these guys would be second-teamers at least, but the competition is just too tough here. Big Ben (2.0, 127.2) has won Defensive Player of the Year four times but slipped noticeably this season; nonetheless, he's made Chicago even more of a defensive force and has them primed for a deep playoff run.

Okafor (1.8, 100.5) gets forgotten in this discussion, but his play in the first half of the season was positively monstrous. Unfortunately, injuries limited him down the stretch.

The same can be said for Mourning (3.1, 118.2), who was dominant in spurts while Shaquille O'Neal was out of the lineup but seemed to run out of gas right as Shaq returned.

Howard (2.8, 199.6) is a rising force at the defensive end with his size and shot-blocking skill; another year of learning the angles might get him into the top three.

Third team: Marcus Camby, Nuggets (2.3, 132.4)
I've heard a lot of clamoring for Camby to win Defensive Player of the Year. Frankly, I'm not seeing it. The gist of the argument is that the Nuggets would be a horrible defensive team without him, but Camby's numbers aren't overwhelming. Incidentally, it's become common of late to say the Nuggets are a terrible defensive team, but they're not -- they just play at a fast pace so they give up a lot of points.

Yes, it would be great if A.I. and Melo didn't gamble for steals on every play, but the other guys are pretty solid. Regardless, Camby has much more in common with the Mournings and Okafors in the honorable mention pool than with Duncan and the next two centers.

Second team: Jason Collins, Nets (6.3, 272.7)
Collins doesn't get enough credit for his defense because (a) he doesn't block any shots, and (b) Nets fans are usually too busy complaining about his rancid offense. Nonetheless, he's a major force.

Nobody defends Shaquille O'Neal better, and he's the best big man this side of Anderson Varejao at moving his feet into position to take a charge against a driving guard. There's nothing flashy about it, but he's incredibly effective because he does everything right. Now if only he could make a basket once in a while.

First team and Defensive Player of the Year:
Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers (5.2, 307.4)
O'Neal is unlikely to get many votes for this award because of the Pacers' decline, but that would be a shame. Indiana's collapse came mostly at the offensive end because the Stephen Jackson trade and subsequent injury to Marquis Daniels left them completely devoid of a wing player who could create his own shot; as a direct result, Indiana finished last in offensive efficiency.

But defensively? O'Neal was a monster.

For starters, only Duncan, Bowen and Battier had more points saved on the season. Moreover, the bad backup effect was actually working against him most of the time -- Jeff Foster is no slouch himself. Statistically, O'Neal blocked nearly 2.6 shots a game and usually defended the opponents' top post scorer. Most amazingly, he did this while limping around on a bad wheel during the second half of the season, putting an exclamation point on his considerable determination to right the Pacers' sinking ship. Unfortunately, he couldn't save them, but his efforts shouldn't go unrecognized.

Has alot of interesting blogbites about sportsblogging's rising prominence in relations to mainstream and other stuff.

<link>http://zachls.blogspot.com/2007/02/blogger-interviews-dan-shanoff.html</link>

"One-line diaries are prohibited on McCovey Chronicles. Give your diary a bit more thought, then give it another shot. If you have nothing to add to your proposed diary, then it probably belongs as a comment under another appropriate thread.

The minumum is 300 characters. "

WTF is this McCovey/gestapo bullshit Matt??  Last I'ze checked we was in America, land of the free and shit.  nevermind.

The Bulls' lukewarm pursuit of Gasol was the defining moment of this year's deadline season. Supposedly they didn't want to give up Luol Deng because they didn't think Gasol was a guy who could put them over the top in the East. Really? You don't think replacing P.J. Brown with an All-Star might give you a leg up? And you don't want to trade Deng for a guy who is an All-Star because in two years he might become one? Help me out with the logic on that one.

I will never understand this. Because he can play the post and passes so well, Gasol was the one player in the entire league who could have helped them the most -- even more than Kevin Garnett, I would argue. If they paired Gasol with the Bulls' shooters like Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon and Andres Nocioni, Chicago's offense immediately would become one of the league's better ones, which is all this team needs because its defense is so strong.

Instead, the Bulls acted like they were doing Memphis a favor by agreeing to take him. Maybe John Paxson got too used to dealing with Isiah Thomas and didn't realize that the league's other GMs actually demanded fair offers. Whatever the case, he passed up a golden opportunity to position his team for a run at a title.

That's from hollinger's (non)trade analysis.  I actually wanted to post this question a couple of days ago. Like hollinger says gasol is a proven +player/star (whether or not he's in the upper echelon is debatable) whereas deng is abv. average  now, with upside. Echoing hollinger he's also providing a very reliable offensive set/game from his post up game setup, whereas deng's doing it from the 3 spot. That wasn't clear: basically the value of a 4-5 player with a reliable post game and all the offensive playcalls (forcing teams to double, opening up 3pt shooters etc.)that spring out of that provide, imo, a certain value in comparison to a 2-3 guy who gets his off of jumpers and drives (unless of course he's REALLY good at creating his shot/getting fouls/double teams of the dribble ala the kobe's and wade's of the league)which Deng is NOT at the moment.  Although he does seem to have some Pippen/Kirilenko-esque qualities/potential as well...

The arguing points for keeping Deng were that (for me at least):
-he's on the (real) cheap for 2-3 years, still locked into his rookie contract compared to gasol who is locked in to a multi yr 13-17m/yr contract.   Basically if the nucleus of the team w/Gasol is proven to be less than championship worthy, it'd make tinkering with their roster pretty dificult.
-Deng is only 20.  That's lebron-young, super tons  of upside. What's his ceiling?

Personally I still think, like hollinger the gasol for deng was the right play (not necessarily a no brainer like i initially thought). I think there's an 90% probability his peak potential is less than/equal to gasol's.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?  I know it's a non-spurs topic...