This is pure speculation and has nothing to do with the reality of the Draft Lottery or NBA. But if Stern was rigging the draft Lottery, what would we expect the results to be? I would guess his formula would be based on what was most palatable and most marketable.

The current standings show:

#1 (7-40)	#2 (11-38)	#3 (12-37)	#4 (16-35)	#5 (16-34)	#6 (17-32)	#7 (17-32)
#8 (17-30)	#9 (20-28)	#10 (23-27)	#11 (23-27)	#12 (24-27)	#13 (25-25)	#14 (27-24)

and while there may be a shift in the last team in the west or east these are pretty much the lottery teams.

It's unlikely that the lottery would be rigged so that all 3 lottery spots went to higher seeds. In fact it would make sense if you were rigging the lottery to reserve 2 spots for the bottom 4 teams and 1 spot for a wild card team.

So the bottom 4 teams are Bobcats, Wizards, New Orleans and New Jersey. It's obvious if your Stern you want New Orleans to be in the lottery as it's probably the only way you'll eventually find owners for the teams. So 1 slot for New Orleans.

I would also see giving New Jersey a slot. Having a strong New Jersey team just improves marketability. They have a new arena going up and if they can keep Williams New York is more exciting. So 1 spot for New Jersey(too bad for Portland)

Now for the final slot. From a marketing perspective, we can eliminate the Wizards and Cavs(lottery teams 2 years in a row) and still having some excitement about their last 2 picks. The Kings and Golden State(California market is doing great with the resurgence of Clippers and Golden State will be interesting next year with Big Country in town) The Wolves have Rubio and Love now and will garner excitement next year, so they are out. Houston is probably out as well. Texas market is doing fine with strong teams in Dallas and San Antonio) The Blazers likewise can be eliminated. They have a strong fan-base and are in their first down year in a little while.

This leaves: Bobcats, Raptors, Pistons, Bucks, Suns. So Stern has 2 choices: 1-Shore up a flagging franchise (Bobcats, Raptors or Pistons) 2-Create buzz for a new "contender" (Suns, Bucks)

My guess:

1. New Orleans

2. Phoenix Suns

3. New Jersey

What do y'al think?

This may be a tepid defense at best, but I do believe that there are some issues with Nate that caused some of these problems. Felton admittedly was out of shape and at the start of the season seemed to get gassed by the end of the 4th quarter. But in our very good start Felton didn't look like a huge problem. He looked like a player that once he got a little more settled and in control would be a reasonable point guard. As the season progressed this seemed less and less likely.

His main defense has been that he was uncertain about his role and Nate made him lose confidence. If Felton were the lone player that's made this complaint it would be obvious that Felton was the problem. However except for Steve Blake can anybody name a 1,2 or 3 on the team that has not at some point in Nate's tenure seemed to either be uncertain of their role on the team and/or shown a real issue with self-confidence out on the court.

Sergio --After a good start disappeared from the league. May not have been a good player but never developed. Always complained about his role on the team and seemed to lose confidence in himself as his stay in Portland continued.

Rudy --After a good start faded in Portland. May not have been the all-star he thought he was but seemed to lose something over the course of the first season and was not the same player in his second season. Always complained about his role on the team and seemed to lose confidence in himself the longer he played for Nate.

Bayless -- Always looked like he was overthinking everything. He started hot in summer-league but couldn't change his style to fit the Blazers. Always played as if someone was looking over his shoulders and was ready to yank him.

Miller -- Clashed almost openly with Nate at the beginning of his stay in Portland because he didn't know what his role was and didn't see himself as a backup.

Roy -- After his knee injuries spent last season questioning his role on the team and whether he should start or not. In commenting on his retirement mentioned his role on the team was a factor.

Mills -- Yanked in and out of backup positions. Can't say that he was unhappy as he never openly complained. But headed to China when there was a real opportunity to be the backup PG for the Blazers.

Batum -- Didn't sign a contract extension, partially because of $$'s but partially because he was uncertain of his role on the team.

Wallace -- Complained about playing out of position. After a great start with the Blazers, faded and looked less and less comfortable playing his game.

Babbitt -- Is apparantly an excellent shooter in practice but looks out of sorts whenever he's in a game and like he's pressing to hard to make an impression. Never seems to have confidence in himself.

Crawford -- Complained about playing out of position and not knowing his role on the team.

Matthews -- Has never complained, but after a great start with Portland last year seems to have lost confidence in his shot and his role on the team. Has been yanked in and out of the starting line up.

Armon Johnson -- Started great but definitely lost the confidence of Nate. Didn't see enough of him afterwards to see if his play was affected.

I know I'm missing some players. But if there are any constant refrains about Nate from the players it's:

1. They don't know their role on the team and

2. They don't play with confidence because they feel that Nate doesn't trust them.

Now Felton is the worst symptom of these issues and he's not a great player but Nate certainly didn't create an environment where players played without looking over their shoulders at the coach.

This isn't an argument to get rid of Greg Oden, but I believe the Blazers are best served by not picking up the team-option this summer on Greg Oden.  It's obvious that next year we will be dealing with a rehabbing Greg Oden that probably won't be up to speed until late in the season at best.  So, the Blazer's won't be getting much value from his playing.  The ideal contract for the Blazer's really want is a 2 or 3 year deal, so they can get a chance to evaluate him fully while moving on.  

Let's say Greg is confident in his rehab and thinks he's going to be a decent player.  There's no reason for Greg to sign any extension with Portland next year before he hit's unrestricted free-agency next summer.  So if Portland picks up the team-option on  Greg  they are pretty much guaranteed that they will be in a bidding war after a year.  If they let Greg go to restricted free-agency, odds are they will either get to match a deal that would fit what they are looking for or Greg will get no offers.  There are very few teams that are going to be willing to risk going for broke on Greg with a long term deal.  Any teams that make an offer are going to make something similar to what Portland wants, a 2-3 year deal with team-options and whatever incentives they can structure in so if Greg washes out they don't lose much cap flexibility.  Very few teams are in good enough financial shape that they can offer a deal which would potentially hurt them if Greg continues having trouble with injuries.  And, there are very few poison-pills that Paul Allen can't swallow.

It's a gamble, but a very small gamble and certainly less of a gamble than if they let Greg become an unrestricted free-agent.  There are very few scenarios where extending Greg doesn't either lead us to losing Greg in free-agency or giving him a max-contract(whether or not he's fully recovered).  At best we extend Greg and it becomes apparent he's never going to play again and we only lose one years worth of money.  At worst we take the team-option on Greg, he shows flashes of brilliance, and we end up in a bidding war whether or not we know what kind of player he will be long term.

I realize that this is a subject rarely addressed in pro-basketball.  In fact, of the 3 major sports in the US, the NBA has to be the farthest behind in discussion, regulation and  enforcement of drug testing.  Even if it wasn't a major problem there still would have to be steroid users among basketball players and yet we never hear about suspensions or even players getting warnings about steroids.

I firmly believe there is a lot of Steroid use in NBA basketball.  When you look at certain players Dwight Howard, Lebron James etc... their physiques don't look natural:

http://beforeafters.com/people/athletes/dwight-howard-steroids/

This relates to the Blazers because in the last few summers, both Greg Oden and LaMarcus's body's transformed gaining over 20 lbs. of what looked like muscle each.  Oden then suffers a freak accident (broken kneecap) which has been vaguely associated with weight lifters who overuse steroids(I can't find a study to cite, only anecdotal evidence).

So is it possible to gain 20 lbs. of muscle in two months naturally?

And more importantly does it matter?

I've seen a lot of posts and comments that imply or flat out state that Nate is a very poor coach at developing young players(especially point guards).  However, I think the majority of the evidence shows that Nate is very good at developing young players.  His deficiency may lie in working with under-confident players, but not in player development.

If you were to describe a coach whose record with players he worked with ,with fewer than 4 years in the league was:

Successes:

1 multiple all-star

3rd year player  just below the all-star line but in the top 10 for his position

2nd year player who is a solid starter and potential all-star

2nd year player who may not fulfill potential to start at PG, but definitely can be a 6th man in this league

2 2nd round picks who after 1 season looks like they're going to fill out to be fine roll-players

2nd year player who put up dominating numbers before going out due to injury

Juries out:

2nd year player who showed sharp decline from first year, may be due to injuries

Failures:

1 player who developed into a starting point-guard in a different system after the trade

1 player traded away who couldn't get minutes in Sacramento

5th year player who has become a solid bench player but may never reach potential

So Nates shooting 60-70% with developing draft picks. 

Now a lot of the credit can be given to Kevin for astute drafting, but I think when people talk about Nates failure's as a developmental coach they're missing all his successes.  Roy, LaMarcus, Batum, Bayless, Oden, Cunningham and Pendegraph are players that Nate has successfully developed.  If they stay healthy and continue along the path they are you could be looking at the starters and key role-players for a championship team.  All developed by one coach.

Sure he failed to turn Sergio into gold, but nobody has.  Nate may also have failed to get Martel to his potential, however some of that is due to loss of playing time to Batum and a stress fracture.  If Martel had started the last two years we may have seen a different player entirely.  And Rudy may be leaving Portland, but I think the jury is still out on Rudy.  I will say that Jarrett Jack was probably a failure on our organization's part.  

But this is still a pretty awesome record for player development.

Last year we saw a rash of injuries, and some can be attributable to bad luck, but even if it was only luck, the team could probably take a few steps to minimize lower the risk for next season.

1.  Don't over-work our players in the off-season.  The NBA season is grueling, and now we have this idea formed by an elite few that every athlete should be working out all the time.  There is success to be gotten from resting and letting bones and muscles heal.  It doesn't mean don't work out.  It means lower the intensity of the work-outs.  Unless your on steroids the body has a fixed recovery time thats needed in order to properly continue to repair damage from the previous work out.

Each player should choose one or two things to master in the off-season.  Focus on those, but figure the conditioning should be built in the last few weeks of the off-season when we're having regular practices.  I rather have players finish the season in game shape than start the season in game shape.

2.  Fix the roles for the team.  We're at the point where we've got a tighter roster and can figure out what each player is doing.  If coaching fixes roles and rotations to a certain degree players will be able to just practice.  One of the things you read in articles was how intense our practices were at the beginining of the season.  At the begining of last season we had potential 3 starting small-forwards, 3 starting point guards and a back-up 2 and a backup center that could have started for some teams in the league.  Practices were battles for position, not workouts to build a flow and choose how this team will crush people.

With the Travis/Steve trade we're actually in better position this year to go into the off-season.  Except for Rudy, every player should know their role on the team.  Now they don't have to battle each other just themselves.

 This means don't trade for another small-forward or point guard.  Right now we're good.  We've got a clear 1, 2 and 3 in each of those positions.  If Rudy is traded, it should be for a back-up two, or he should be bundled with a starter for another starter.  We can't just add more talent any more.  

3.  Limit summer international play.  As much as Rudy and Nic want to play internationally this summer.  They came back hurt.  Let them have a full season off to relax and heal.  Nic's shoulder isn't great, Rudy's body and spirits aren't great.  They need a break.

These things as well as figuring out how to protect Greg's knees will help make it so next year we can just play basketball.

Okay,

In the last 2 years we've traded or let go Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye  and now travis and steve blake.  Despite Tominhawaii's efforts, Andre Miller hasn't quite taken the spot of the new whipping boy.  So who's next?  Who is going to earn the ire of the fans, because we've got to have someone to bitch about?

I prefer Blaze the mascot, but his jump shot has been looking a lot better.

So where will the scorn turn?

Just saw the post that Yao is most likely out for next season and may be gone for good.   If this is true, Houston may want to blow up the team and start rebuilding.  They don't have many assets that folks are going to want so why don't we target Aaron Brooks? 

Of course if we're going to get Aaron Brooks we're going to have to give them young talent and take on a bad contract.  The only really bad contract they've got is Tracy McGrady. 

So how about McGrady + Brooks for Pryz, Blake, (Rudy or Bayless) and Trout?  This should just about match salary-wise.  Houston get's marketable young talent and a starting center.  We get a starting point guard for the entire length of our run.  Sure McGrady isn't a great fit, but he can play the same role as Rudy played and he knows how to play with a dominant center so he'll be good with Greg. (If Houston's truly desparate then we go for a signed and traded Channing instead of Pryz).

We would still need to track down a backup C/PF but there should may be a few 7' stiffs wandering around the league available for our trade exception.  

Line up:

Brooks/Bayless/Roy

Roy/ McGrady/Webster

Batum/Webster/McGrady/Roy

LMA/Free Agent/Pendegraph

Oden/Free Agent

Looking at this rumor:

Boston shopping allen, rondo

What's the opinion on:

Rudy, Trout, Blake, Bayless + draft pics for Rondo and Allen.

I'm not sure if the salaries match enough to fit our cap-space, we might have to sign and trade Frye also to make things work.  We take on a huge contract for 2 years but get veteran support at the wing.  We also get our point guard of the future.  Sure we're losing talent and flexibility but we're getting the PG we need and a short-term replacement for Rudy.  

I think this is a trade we do in a heartbeat.  I'm would even do this trade with Batum instead of Trout.(although it will take more work to get the salaries to match).

So once again like last year we will be faced with an exceedingly deep talented young squad and too few minutes to develop our younger players, if we want to get to a play-off like efficiency.  

It looks like our weakest position is point guard and we should probably attempt to trade talent to get a new starting point guard.  Assume the new point guard is of Hinrich caliber or better, since we won't really want to trade for somebody that isn't much better than blake.  I'm also assuming that this trade could go down in a lot of ways with different players going at different times(during the draft, sign and trades etc...)

Here's a couple trade options(I'm assuming Sergio is on his way out)  I'm also assuming we will be able to pick up a replacement for Channing Frye if needed: 

1. Rudy + Sergio.  

Trade value: potential borderline allstar with a rock n' roll lifestyle, plus instant Spanish/Euro fan-base.  Other teams will like the instant fan appeal of Rudy, plus the marketing potential abroad.

2. Trout + Blake + Sergio

Trade value: great offensive SF, steady backup point guard and Sergio.  If a team needs punch from the bench and to solidify there back up point guard at a low price this would be the way to go.  (Chicago might find this especially appealing)

3. Trout + Sergio + Bayless

Trade value: great offensive SF, combo guard who would still be valued like a top-five draft pick.  (If your bench is not doing anything, this could totally transform your team.)

4. do nothing- Sergio

In each of these cases it's possible to work the minutes to get to a 10 player rotation where there won't be too much grumbling.  However, the question is which is our strongest rotation, and which will give us the most trade value.

Minutes

(these are approximations just to show what the rotation would look like, I'm leaving center out because we've got that covered):

Trade 1 (Rudy + Sergio)

Trade 2 (Trout + Blake + Sergio)

Trade 3(Trout + Bayless + Sergio)

Trade 4(Sergio)

So what do y'al think:

I know Portland hasn't made the playoffs yet, but it's looking more and more likely that there is no way that Phoenix and Dallas can catch them.  So we're probably going to make the playoffs and be in at least the seventh slot.  

I still don't see us as a championship team yet and  I see us losing several games in the future.  So, when we lose these games I'd really rather see constructive discussions than the usual criticisms of  Nate, calls for a new point-guard and a new small forward.  

We don't need a new coach.  We don't need to make changes to our small forwards and our point guards are not losing games for us.

1.  Nate is one of the reasons Portland is doing so well.  He has been a fine coach and done some spectacular stuff with a very talented young team.  After losses it may be easy to look back at a game and see what he did wrong, but he does so many thing's right it's amazing.  He's got two 29 year old players having career seasons after nobody projected much for them.  He's got 3 rookies making significant contributions to a play-off bound team.  Instead of bombing 2 on 2 web-forums we should be launching a Coach of the Year campaign for Nate.

2.  Small-forward is not an issue right now.  Our projected starter has been out all season.  Since the all-star break Travis has started a campaign to be included in 6th man of the year discussions and Batum has played better than all expectations and will definitely develop into a solid, if not allstar, NBA starter in the next few years.

3.  Point guards are not losing the games for us.  While point guard may be our weakest position, when Portland loses it normally can't be placed solely on the point-guards.  When we've lost,  it seems to come from inconsitent play from LMA or Roy coupled with no bench scoring from Travis and Rudy.  It's normally on low-rebounding games and games when we settle for a lot of jump-shots.  None of this is the point-guards fault.  Sure we don't have the best defensive point guards in the league, but they aren't what's killing us.  If that were the case we would have lost all our games vs. Utah, New Orleans(although we got one fluke win w/CP3 out), San Antonio, Phoenix and New Jersey.  The quality of the opponent's point guard's offense has not been the determining factors in our losses.  

This is a pre-emptive post.  After the next loss when I see the normal handwringing I can link to post directly and save some breath.   I'm not saying there aren't areas to improve, but let's focus on the important stuff.

It looks like we are starting to see what our play-off rotation is going to look like.  Nate is tightening up the minutes and I think we can see who will be in the final 8 man rotation. 

Starters:

Blake-Roy-Batum-LMA-Pryz

Bench:

Trout-Fernandez-Oden

In an overtime game on the back-end of a back to back with 2 starter's out Rodriguez and Bayless got only 9 minutes combined.  So the answer to the Bayless/Rodriguez argument will probably be:  NEITHER.  I can see both of them getting spot minutes as well as Frye playing a little back-up center or power-forward if there's foul trouble, but I think we're going to see the 8 man rotation more and more.  Considering their quality of play as of late it isn't that surprising.  

As we all like to second guess Nate.  Poll question for y'al:

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Will Portland make the playoffs?

There are only 2.5 games separating #2 and #9 in the west.  One team is going to be left out.  There is a lot of season left.  Will Portland be that team or someone else?

I don't see a lot of separation between any of these teams in terms of play.  They all are winning about 60% of their games.  Except for San Antonio the teams look remarkably similar.  Each team has 1-2 players playing at a level somewhere between allstar and superstar, 1 or 2 other players playing at close to an allstar level and the rest of the positions adequately filled with solid starters.  All of these teams are mopping up with the lesser teams in the league and haven't shown much dominance against the Tier I and Tier II teams.  San Antonio is a little different.  They have a proven superstar, but they are older and so far more injury prone.(Nash and Shaq are on the decline so I don't give Phoenix credit for having a superstar player)

The difference between this season and last season is none of these teams look like a borderline playoff team.  This year it doesn't look like the last spot will be determined by one or two teams scrapping it out like most years.  Or even like last year when the bottom 2 teams fighting for a spot(Denver and Golden State) were 6-8 games out from the rest of the playoff teams.  This year there does not seem to be any separation at all between the 2nd seed in the west and the 9th seed in the west. They are all good teams. 

People can argue that Team A has x advantage in making the playoffs over Team B, but I can't really argue that any team of the tier 2 teams in the west are clearly better than any other team.   

So what is going to be the deciding factor?  The only thing I can come up with is: injuries.  The team that is hit hardest by injuries to important players will be the team that doesn't make the playoffs.  My gut says San Antonio and Houston will make the playoffs. San Antonio because they have a proven superstar who hasn't declined yet, and Houston because they've proven they can win at the same rate with key players injured.  But it's still anybody's spot to lose.  

The good news is that Portland has a 7 out of 8 chance of making the playoffs.  The bad news is that heart, drive, determination and talent won't make as much of a difference as injuries and bad luck.  

So who do you think get's left out?