SB Nation User Blog: bradley

My Turn

bradley — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 10:31:01 -0000

First, I read all the Mocks here at MHR and appreciate all the work everyone put into them. I learned a lot from them, and was entertained as well. Second, my big fear going into the draft was that there was substance to the rumor that the Broncos would trade up to get Sanchez. Whew! Moving on, a few points:

1. McD may be a young guy, but he has a lot of experienced help in Nolan, Dennison and Turner, and the rest. I bet McD made it clear to them what his vision is, and then relied heavily on their assessment of the players drafted. To all the nay sayers about this draft, at least give this new Broncos team until November before you start looking for a rope and a tree.

2. I was not a Moreno guy. Obviously he is very talented but I thought we could go RB with good success much later. That was then, this is now. I'm sure Bobby Turner supported this pick. Of all the top fifteen or so picks, Moreno is probably the most sure fire future great. And don't get too much into the "we could have gotten him at 18" thing. I'd be willing to bet McD et al had info that San Diego would take him at 16 (in spite of the re-signings of Sproles and LT).

3. Styg made the point after free agency that the Broncos had addressed all the areas of need, freeing us up to go more with BPA in the draft. And that's what McD did.

4. The defense would be better this year with the exact same players we had last year, just because of Nolan instead of Slowik. Then look at all the improvements in personnel! This D will be top 15 this year, IMHO.

5. McD and Nolan obviously feel good about all the young players at DL and LB. There will be some very serious and good competition there.

6. There will also be some serious competition at QB and RB. I'm betting that Orton wins the QB job (he's shown he can be a good starter on a weak team, and as for his perceived lack of arm strength, we might be amazed at how much stronger it is at Mile High than in the Windy City). Anyway, if Simms wins the job, so much the better for the Broncos. As for RB, at least one of the three FA's might not make the cut (Buckhalter or Jordan) and Selvin Young is history. And, just picture Hillis and Moreno in the backfield at the same time!

7. In short, the 2009 Broncos are going to be hugely better than the 2008 Broncos. And, I do not drink Kool Aid.

Jokes

bradley — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 23:44:50 -0000

Okay, everybody's a little stressed about the Cutler issue, and I started the N for Knowledge thing on another thread (What does the N on the Nebraska helmet stand for?) and we've had some fun in the last couple months with Posts on Movies and Books, so how about one on Jokes?

Here's one: Three strings walk into town, tired, dusty and thirsty. They find a bar, but a sign out front says "No Strings Allowed". One of the strings goes in anyway, jumps up on a bar stool, and orders a beer. Bartender throws him out. Second string roughs himself up, ties a few loops, and gives it a shot. Hops up on the bar stool, and orders a beer. Bartender comes over, gives him the eye, says: "Ain't you a string?" String says: "No, I'm afraid not." (Think about it).

Okay. A priest, a doctor, and a lawyer go into a bar, and take seats at the bar. Bartender comes over and looks at them, says: "What is this, some kind of joke?"

Books

bradley — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 20:36:52 -0000

Several weeks ago we enjoyed a Post about Movies. I thought maybe a Post about good Books would be welcomed also. So, here are some of my favorite authors and their books from the action/adventure/cops and robbers genre.

Nelson DeMille. Best book is Plum Island (John Corey is a Manahttan homicide detective recuperating on Long Island when he gets caught up in a murder investigation - maybe DeMille’s most enjoyable book). Sequels with Corey are Lion’s Game, Nightfall, and Wildfire, (the latter being disappointing). DeMille’s best book may be Charm School, which takes place in Russia. He wrote The General’s Daughter, which was made into a movie with John Travolta (playing Paul Brenner, an Army CID investigator) and Madeline Stowe. The book is much better.

Chuck Logan. His second book is his best, IMO - The Price of Blood. He has about 8 books, the 2nd through the rest have many of the same characters. Big Law is 3 rd, Absolute Zero is 4 th (this may be better than Price of Blood). Hunter’s Moon, his 1st, is very good, as are they all.

Peter Bowens’s Gabriel DuPre series, starting with Coyote Wind, is very good - a small town in Montana. DuPre is a fiddler and brand inspector and extremely competent guy who gets caught up in murders in a small town. Great cast of characters.

Tony Hillerman. The Lieutenant Joe Leaphorn and Officer Jim Chee series. Two Navajo Tribal policemen in the four corners area work somewhat together to solve murders and such. Very good writer.

Craig Johnson. Johnson has four books about Sheriff Walt Longmire of Absaroka County, Wyoming. Johnson is a good writer. Here’s a fun quote from The Cold Dish: "She relaxed and leaned her back against the wall. With the apron on and her hair up, she looked like an Amish centerfold."

C.J. Box. Box has written a few books about a game warden in Wyoming. Better than average stuff, and my friend Evan knows him personally.

Michael Gruber. Tropic of Night; Valley of Bones; and Night of the Jaguar - all take place in Miami, where police detective Jimmy Paz has to deal with strange, sorcerous goings on. Very entertaining and educational, as well as thrilling.

Patrick O’Brien. He wrote the Jack Aubrey series, about the British navy during the Napoleonic Wars. About 20 books in the series. You’ve probably seen the movie Master and Commander with Russell Crowe. This is the title of the first book, but the movie is totally different from the book of the same name, which takes place in the Mediterranean. Great movie, though - it’s based on a couple of O’Briens’ Aubrey books.

James Clavell. Even if you’ve read Shogun, it’s worth a re-read (I’ve read it several times). Tai Pan is almost as good. His others are more than readable, but nowhere near as good.

Lee Child. His Jack Reacher series is very good. Reacher, in most of the books, is a former Army MP who sort of wanders around the country and finds trouble.

Tom Clancy. Hunt For Red October, Red Storm Rising, Patriot Games, Cardinal In the Kremlin, and the rest of the Jack Ryan series are long and very readable, even though the characters don’t have a lot of depth.

Michael Crichton: Good writer, lots of range, from Jurassic Park to State of Fear, a didactic novel that debunks the global warming thing. Timeline is a very entertaining book - archaeologists excavating a 14th century dig in France travel back in time to 14th century France. Airframe is a good book about a passenger plane that crashes, and the investigation into why. FAA, the airline, and the manufacturer try to avoid blame. He wrote The Andromeda Strain a long time ago.

Leo Tolstoy. People like to say "It’s like reading War and Peace" and then groan. None of them ever read the book. It, and Anna Karenina, are tremendous, at least if you can get the Constance Garnett translation. I’ve read them both several times.

John Fowles. The French Lieutenant’s Woman is his best known. Daniel Martin is a very good story about a man in his 40's who dumps his beautiful 20 something starlet girl friend for a woman in her 40's. The Magus blew me away in 1969 (I saw the movie with Anthony Quinn, Candice Bergen, and Michael Caine before I read the book).

John LeCarre. Wrote the Smiley books about England’s "CIA", then with the end of the cold war, moved on to books about arms traders and such. They all have to do with spies and such on some level. Excellent writer, he can get a bit tedious. His best book by far, IMO, is Little Drummer Girl. Nothing tedious about it.

Herman Wouk. Wouk is a great story teller. I really like Winds of War and its sequel, War of Remembrance, which follow a US Navy family through WW II. There was a real good TV movie made from the books, starring Robert Mitchum as Navy Commander Pug Henry. Wouk also wrote a good book about the birth of Israel, but I can’t remember the title. He has some other good books that I want to read.

Michael Connelly. Writes action/cop thrillers, mostly about LAPD guy Harry Bosch. But try Blood Work, where a retired FBI agent, who recently had a heart transplant, tracks down the killer of the person whose heart he got. Follow it with The Narrows, where Bosch looks into the death of the FBI agent. There was a good movie with Clint Eastwood made from Blood Work.

Scott Turow. Presumed Innocent is excellent. They made a very good movie from it, with Harrison Ford and Brian Dennehy and Bonnie Bedelia, but the book is better. Turow has written half a dozen other books with a legal setting, but none as good as Presumed Innocent.

Brad's NFL Picks - Super Bowl 43 - February 1, 2009

bradley — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 22:15:04 -0000

Brad's Picks was 1-1 last week, correct when Pittsburgh beat the Ravens 23-14, but wrong when Arizona beat the Eagles 32-25.

Brad's Picks is 7-3 in the playoffs, and 168-97-1 on the season.

Home teams were 2-0 last week, and are 5-5 in the playoffs and 151-114-1 on the season.

There was one coast to coast game last week, with the visitor losing. Visiting teams on the opposite coast were 15-28 on the season.

George was 0-2 last week, and is 125-138-1 on the season.

Super Bowl 43. Kickoff will be about 4:30 MST.

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4)at Arizona Cardinals (12-7) - I know, the game will be in Tampa Bay, but Arizona is designated the home team. The Las Vegas line is Steelers by 7. Weather in Tampa should be beautiful, around 60 at kickoff. This will be the 6th Super Bowl for the Steelers (they're 5-1), and the first for the Cardinals (dropping the number of teams that have never made it to five). Cardinals are the Cinderella team this year, and I'd like to see them win the game. But will they? Do they have a chance against the Steelers defense, which was ranked number one in the league all year? Sure they do, and here's why:

Arizona has played well all year, except for a few games at the end when they had their division locked up. They've been red hot in the playoffs, beating the Falcons 30-24; Carolina 33-13; and the Eagles 32-25.

Arizona's D has allowed just 3.6 yards per rush attempt by the oppo in the playoffs, and they have 7 sacks and 8 INT's in the playoffs.

WR Larry Fitzgerald is absolutely on fire (23 passes for 419 yards and 5 TD's in the three playoff games), and they'll have a healthy Anquan Boldin for the first time in the playoffs. Second year WR Steve Breaston had over a thousand yards in the regular season. Kurt Warner has thrown just 2 INT's in the playoffs. He completed 66.3 % of his passes and was sacked just 3 times.

RB's Edgerrin James and rookie Tim Hightower have been combining for upwards of a hundred yards per game in the playoffs.

Cardinals don't get rattled. They had a huge lead over the Eagles at halftime (24-6), but squandered it in the 3rd quarter. But late in the 4th, Warner led them from a 25-24 deficit to a 32-25 win.

Both teams will try to blitz, but Warner was the highest rated QB against the blitz this year (getting sacked just once every 30 blitz attempts), while Ben Roethlisberger was the most sacked (sacked every 6 blitz attempts). Ben was also the most sacked on 3rd down (once every six 3rd down pass attempts), while Warner was sacked once every twelve 3rd down pass attempts).

Steelers will have to use double coverage on Fitzgerald and Boldin, so if they do blitz, it leaves the middle wide open for James or Hightower.

Ben R can have real bad games - 3 INT's against the Colts, 4 fumbles against the Titans. Also, remember his performance in SB 40? 9 completions on 21 attempts for 123 yards, no TD's, 2 INT's. A 22.6 passer rating. But, he can also make some spectacular plays.

Ben has a sore back (x-rays or MRI or some such a few days ago). He'll play for sure, but how well? Also, Hines Ward sprained his MCL two weeks ago. He practiced on Thursday and Friday, but he will have to wear a brace on the knee.

Arizona's Head Coach is Ken Whisenhunt, who was the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh through 2006. Then Bill Cowher retired, and the Steelers passed on Whisenhunt, naming young Mike Tomlin as HC. So, I'm betting Whisenhunt still knows more about the Steelers than Tomlin knows about the Cardinals.

The Steelers have led the league in defense all year, but they've only played four teams with a top ten offense. And they lost two of those games.

The joker might be special teams. Neither team is very good on special teams, so do they cancel each other out or does someone make a big play?

So anyway, with all of that, I'm picking Arizona to win by something like 30-24. Fitzgerald will be the MVP. George will take the home team also.

Oh - the five teams that have never made it to the Super Bowl? Detroit, New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Houston.

Brad's NFL Picks - The Conference Championship games- 2008-9

bradley — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 20:11:55 -0000

Brad's Picks was 2-2 last week, incorrect when the Cardinals beat Carolina 33-13 and when the Ravens beat Tennessee 13-10. Brad's Picks was correct when the Eagles beat the Giants at the Meadowlands 23-11 and when Pittsburgh beat the Chargers 35-24.

Brad's Picks is 6-4 in the playoffs and is 167-96-1 on the season.

Home teams didn't do so well last week, going just 1-3. And that was after a bye week for all the home teams. In the playoffs, home teams are 3-5. On the season, home teams are 149-114-1.

There were two coast to coast games last week - both had the visitor going west to east, and the visitor was 1-1. On the season, visiting teams on the other coast are 15-27.

George was just 1-3 last week, and is 125-136-1 on the season.

This Sunday: It was a tough week last week for teams that had enjoyed a bye the week before (1-3). That's the trouble with a first round bye in the playoffs - are you rested or rusted? And the team coming in was victorious the week before, so they're on a high. But that dynamic doesn't play in this round - all the teams had a game last week. But Pittsburgh can enjoy the benefit of having had the previous week off to smooth out the bruises and bumps, so, of those left standing, give an edge to the Steelers.

the 1:00 MST game:

Philadelphia (11-6-1) at Arizona (11-7) - The Vegas line - Eagles by 3.5. These two teams played in Week 13 on Thursday night, and the Cardinals were crushed 48-20. But that was on a short week after a long flight, and this game is in the desert. Cards will get WR Anquan Boldin back, and Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the game right now. Edgerrin James has been providing some rush yardage for the Cards. Cards made their record for the year on the east coast 1-5 with a win at Carolina last week, but they were helped by six turnovers by Jake Delhomme (one lost fumble, 5 INT's). That was on Delhomme's birthday - did he party hardy the night before? Nah, don't think so - just a bad day for Jake. Cards have allowed just 3.5 per carry on the ground in the playoffs. Eagles D got after Eli Manning last week, and they'll need to get after Kurt Warner tomorrow to have a chance to win. Donovan McNabb has 9 TD passes and just one INT since his benching at Baltimore five weeks ago. I think the Eagles are focussed and strong, and I really like Brian Dawkins, their safety, to make at least one big play. I'm taking the Eagles, but this game could go either way. George also likes the Eagles.

the 4:30 MST game:

Baltimore (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4) - The Vegas line - Steelers by 6. Division game, so these two teams have met twice this season, and both were close. The first was Week 4 at Pittsburgh. Steelers won 23-20 in OT. The second was Week 15, the Steelers winning on a disputed TD call late in the game. Ravens QB Joe Flacco is the first rookie to win two playoff games. Ben R won a Super Bowl his rookie season. Clearly these two teams are evenly matched, and dislike each other, and you gotta look for a real tough, low scoring game. I'm taking the Steelers to put an end to Flacco's dream season because: Ravens CB Samari Rolle likely won't play (torn groin); LB/DE Terrell Suggs tore ligaments in his shoulder last week, but might play with a harness; and bruising RB Le'Ron McClain has a high ankle sprain. Also, the Steelers had the bye two weeks ago, and that's like having the fresher batteries in the flashlight. Steelers are basically healthy. George likes the Ravens.

Brad's NFL Picks - Playoffs - Round Two - 2008-9

bradley — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 22:12:11 -0000

Brad's Picks was 4-0 last week, as Arizona beat the Falcons 30-24; when the Ravens crushed Miami 27-9; when San Diego beat the Colts 23-17 in OT; and when the Eagles beat Minnesota 26-14.

Brad's Picks is 4-0 in the playoffs, and 165-94-1 on the season.

Home teams were 2-2 last week, and are 148-111-1 on the season.

There was one coast to coast game last week, and the visitor lost. On the season, visitors on the other coast are 14-26.

George was 3-1 last week, so he's 124-133-1 on the season. That's 48.2 % right for George.

This week: Last week, all the road teams were slight favorites in Las Vegas. This week, all the home teams are favored. Of course, this is just the line that Las Vegas puts up to attract the most bettors, but those bettors pay a lot of attention to who's who in the NFL, and they ain't dummies - they have their money out there, so they do their homework.

It's also interesting that all four games will be a rematch of earlier games this season.

the Saturday games:

the 2:30 MST game;

Baltimore (12-5) at Tennessee (13-3) - This will be on CBS. The Las Vegas line - Tennessee by three. That's the margin the T's won by in Week 5 (13-10). In that game, the Ravens had 132 on the ground, the T's just 47. But Kerry Collins led a comeback (T's were down 10-3 late in the third quarter). Ravens got 5 turnovers last week from the Dolphins, and two were returned for 7. Weather should be decent, around 40 - maybe a snow shower. This game is the toughest call of the weekend. Ravens had the 4th best run O in the league, averaging 148 yards per game. T's countered with 137 per. Ravens D allowed just 15.3 points per game, T's allowed 14.6. Ravens rookie Joe Flacco has had a sensational year, but against a good Miami D, he was just 9-23-135 and no TD's. I'm gonna go with the Titans and wily old veteran QB Kerry Collins to make the difference. Jeff Fisher rested a lot of players, and that can be a double edged sword, but I trust Fisher's call on that one. George also thinks the T's will win at home.

the 6:15 MST game:

Arizona (10-7) at Carolina (12-4) - This will be on FOX. The Las Vegas line - Carolina by ten. On October 26, the Cards went to Carolina and lost 27-23. Carolina has the third best run offense in the league, but last week, the Cardinals held the Falcons (and the second best RB in the league) to just 60 yards on the ground. My first impression here is that the Cardinals don't stand a chance in Carolina, but it was two turnovers in the second half that led to ten points for the Panthers in the earlier meeting. Weather looks to be in the 40's so it shouldn't be a huge problem for the boys from the desert. But the coast to coast thing might be - Cards are 0-5 on the east coast this year - their best game was the one at Carolina. Cards got a little running game going last week, but I don't think they'll get much here, even though Carolina's run D has been suspect (20th in the league), and I'm taking Carolina - they have a great run game, and Steve Smith at wideout. Cards have the better receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, a second year guy from Michigan who's quietly been having a great year (1,003 yards on 77 catches in the regular season, as the number three receiver). Boldin has an injury though (hammy), and will be limited if he plays at all. I just think Carolina is the stronger team overall. George likes the Cardinals.

the Sunday games:

the 11:00 MST game:

Philadelphia (10-6-1) at New York Giants (12-4) - Division game. This will be on FOX. The Las Vegas line - New York by 4. These teams have played twice this year, with one point total separating them. Total score was 51-50 in favor of the Eagles. The Giants won the first game (at Philadelphia) 36-31 (Week Ten). Eagles won the re-match in New York 20-14 (Week 14). The second game wasn't really that close - the Giants scored a TD when Kevin Dockery ran back a blocked field goal attempt by the Eagles. Temp will be around freezing, but no snow/wind. Either way, both teams are used to the cold. Giants haven't been playing as well as the Eagles lately, but they get their big RB, Brandon Jacobs, back. But the other part of their problem was losing Plaxico Burress (he who shot himself), who was Eli Manning's safety net (he scored the winning TD in last year's Super Bowl). I'm taking the Eagles here - they've been the hotter team, and Brian Westbrook is healthy (sort of - he's not practicing this week, but he's OK) and Donovan McNabb is focused. Giants had the week off, but the Eagles had a fairly easy game in Minnesota's dome. George likes the Giants at home.

the 2:45 MST game:

San Diego (9-8) at Pittsburgh (12-4) - This will be on CBS. The Las Vegas line - Pittsburgh by six. On November 16, the Chargers lost at Pittsburgh, 11-10, the first time in NFL history that a game ended 11-10. Pittsburgh won the game on a 32 yard FG with 15 seconds left. Steelers had an astonishing 13 penalties for 115 yards, while the Chargers had just two penalties for five yards. Last week, Charger punter Mike Scifres was probably the MVP for the Bolts, landing like 5 punts inside the 10, which might have been the difference in the OT win over the Colts. Temp will be in the 20's, but decent football weather. LaDainian Tomlinson probably won't play - he's got a torn groin tendon. Steelers QB Ben R suffered a concussion two weeks ago. It was reported to be mild, but he says he got a headache Wednesday after practice. Ben has had problems playing after suffering a concussion, but he's had a couple weeks so Steelers fans hope he'll be OK. Steelers D is a lot better than the Colts D, and the Chargers needed OT to beat the Colts last week at home, and I don't think Scifres can repeat his performance in Pittsburgh. Take the Steelers. George likes the Chargers.

Brad's NFL Picks - Playoffs - Round One - 2008

bradley — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 22:01:41 -0000

Brad's Picks was 13-3 last week, right when Atlanta made it past the Rams 31-27; when Cincinnati beat the Chiefs 16-6; when the Patriots won in very windy Buffalo 13-0; when the Lions lost in Green Bay 31-21; when Houston beat the Bears 31-24; when Minnesota beat the Giants 20-19 on a last second 50 yard FG; when the Panthers beat New Orleans 33-31; when Pittsburgh beat the Browns 31-0; when Arizona beat the Seahawks 34-21; when Baltimore beat the Jaguars 27-7; when the Dolphins beat the New York Jets 24-17; when Philadelphia laid a nuclear beat down on the Cowboys 44-6; and when San Francisco won at the end over the Redskins 27-24.

Brad's Picks was off when Indeewup beat the Titans 23-0; when the Raiders beat Tampa Bay 31-24; and when the Broncos bombed on SNF in San Diego 52-21.

Brad's Picks was 161-94-1 on the season.

Home teams were 12-4 last week, and were 146-109-1 on the season. That's 57% for the homers, compared to 54.7% in 2007.

There were two coast to coast games last week, and the visiting team was 1-1 as the Raiders beat Tampa and the Redskins lost at San Francisco. On the season, visiting teams on the other coast were 14-25. The Raiders win was just the third time that a west coast team won on the east coast. That may be because it's harder to go east than west, or maybe because so many west coast teams were mediocre this year.

George was 9-7 last week, and finished the regular season 121-132-1. If you're doing the math, remember he missed a couple games earlier this season. Anyway, George finished at 47.6% for the season, statistically reasonable for a quarter, even though George was minted in Denver (in 2000). Let's see how he does in the playoffs.

AFC 2, NFC 0 last week. On the season, the AFC was the better conference, 34-30. I made a few errors along the way, but went back and corrected them (I had it AFC 31, NFC 26 a week ago, which was off a few). This is still off by half a game, since Philadelphia and Cincinnati tied one game, and I'm not sure what I did with that. But there were 64 inter conference games, so 34-30 is almost accurate.

Teams coming off a MNF game were 1-1 last week, as Green Bay won and Chicago lost. On the season, teams coming off a MNF game were 20-13. If you're doing the math, there were 34 MNF games (two the first week) but Washington had a bye after it's MNF game, so I didn't count that game). I had expected that the teams off a MNF game would not do that well, with the short week and all, but I attribute the decent record to the fact that teams that play on MNF are usually top tier teams.

This week: the Saturday games:

at 2:30 MST:

Atlanta (11-5) at Arizona (9-7) - This game will be on NBC. The Las Vegas line - Falcons favored by two. Falcons rookie QB Matt Ryan is the rookie of the year, and deservedly so. But he's only been averaging about 170 yards per game lately, with just 2 TD's to go with 4 INT's and 3 fumbles the last three games. Rookie wall? Arizona got Edgerrin James going last week against the Seahawks - 100 yards on 14 carries. And Atlanta has a porous run D - 28th in the league. If the Cards can get a run game going to help their terrific pass game, they might have some fun here. I'm going with the Cardinals and old timer Kurt Warner in the desert. George likes the Cardinals also.

at 6:00 MST:

Inddeeps (12-4) at San Diego (8-8) - This game will also be on NBC. The Las Vegas line - Colts favored by one. These two teams played in Week 12 at San Diego, Colts winning 23-20 on a 50 yard FG as time expired. Neither team has lost since that game. I picked the Chargers to win that one, and I'll do it again. LaDainian Tomlinson looked terrific last week against the Broncos (I know, the Broncos D is bad, but LT showed moves he hasn't shown for a couple years). Toss in speedy RB Darren Sproles, and the fact that the Colts' run D is not good (although they may get Bob Sanders back) and it looks like another close game. But the Colts' run O hasn't been great, averaging just 80 yards per game. Addai and Rhodes have been banged up, and still are. Neither team has a great D, so look for a lot of points - two very good QB's here. I'm going with LT and the Chargers. George likes the Chargers also.

the Sunday games:

at 11:00 MST:

Baltimore (11-5) at Miami (11-5) - This game will be on CBS. The Las Vegas line - Ravens favored by three. In week 7, the Ravens won in Miami 27-13. Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco has been solid behind a real good run O. Ravens D is one of the very best. Dolphins have a real good D also, and Chad Pennington has been very good after his relo from New York. To beat the Ravens' D, you need a long pass O, and Pennington doesn't have a strong arm. But if he can get one off to speedy Ted Ginn, it might make the day. But the smart pick is the Ravens - not all that much has changed since week 7. George likes the Ravens.

at 2:30 MST:

Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Minnesota (10-6) - This game will be on FOX. The Las Vegas line - Eagles favored by three. Eagles have been an up and down team this year, but mostly up lately. Vikings are going with Tarvaris Jackson at QB. RB Adrian Peterson has been fumbling too much lately, maybe because he's tired - he's had a lot of carries this year. Vikings have a good run D, but the secondary is not so good. Donovan McNabb needs to utilize rollouts and screens, to avoid the pass rush, something the Eagles are good at. Brian Westbrook is healthy for the Eagles, and as he goes, so the Eagles go. Coach Andy Reid goes up against his former assistant, Brad Childress. George likes the Vikings.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Seventeen - 2008

bradley — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 23:20:43 -0000

Brad's Picks was just 7-9 last week, right when the Colts beat Jacksonville on TNF 31-24; when the Ravens beat Dallas on Saturday night 33-24; when Seattle beat the Jets 13-3; when the Niners beat St. Louis 17-16; when New England beat the Cardinals 47-7; when the Bengals beat Cleveland 14-0; and when Chicago beat the Packers on MNF in OT 20-17.

Brad's Picks was not right when the New York Giants beat the Panthers 34-28 in OT; when Washington beat the Eagles 10-3; when Oakland beat the Texans 27-16; when the Steelers lost at Tennessee 31-14; when the Dolphins won at Arrowhead 38-31; when the Saints creamed Detroit 47-7 (what was I thinking?); when the Chargers beat Tampa Bay 41-24; when the Bills won at Mile High 30-23; and when the Falcons beat Minnesota 24-17.

Brad's Picks is 148-91-1 on the season.

Home teams were 7-9 last week, and are 134-105-1 on the season. That's 55.8% for the homers on the season. In 2007, the homers won 54.7% of the time.

There were three coast to coast games last week, and the visitors were 1-2, as the Jets lost in Seattle; the Cards lost at New England; and the Chargers won at Tampa Bay. The Chargers win was only the second time a west coast team has won on the east coast. On the season, visiting teams are 13-24.

George was 7-9 last week, and is 112-125-1 on the season.

AFC 3, NFC 1 last week. On the year, it's AFC 31, NFC 26.

Teams coming off a MNF game were 0-2 as both Cleveland and Philadelphia lost. On the season, teams coming off a MNF game are 19-12.

the 11:00 MST games:

St. Louis (2-13) at Atlanta (10-5) - Atlanta and Carolina (11-4) have clinched playoff spots. If Atlanta wins and Carolina loses (at New Orleans) Atlanta gets the NFC South title (and a first round bye) and Carolina gets the wild card spot. I'm pretty sure the Falcons will take care of business against the lowly Rams, so I'm picking the Falcons at home (they're 7-1 at home this year). George also likes the Falcons.

New England (10-5) at Buffalo (7-8) - Division game. In 2002, the final game of the year arrived with the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots all still in the running for the AFC East title. And here we are again. Miami gets the title if they beat the Jets in the late game. Patriots get it if they beat the Bills and the Jets beat the Dolphins. Jets get it if the Bills beat the Patriots and if they beat the Dolphins. Got all that? Bills played a good game at Mile High last week, with Trent Edwards coming off the injured list after a month or so, and doing well. They're going to try like crazy to beat the Patriots, but the wise man will pick New England here. George likes the Patriots also.

Kansas City (2-13) at Cincinnati (3-11-1) - The Who Cares Bowl. Two teams jockeying for the second or third draft pick next year. Neither can do any worse than 4th, so Who Cares? Take the Bengals at home. Actually both teams have been playing OK lately, but this game will still resemble the Pro Bowl in intensity. George likes the Bengals.

Detroit (0-15) at Green Bay (5-10) - Division game. Last year the Dolphins went winless into Week 15, and pulled out a win in OT against the Ravens. But last year you had the feeling that Dolphins' players cared about their record. Not so this year with the Lions. And I don't think division foe Packers will hand a win to them to, you know, just be nice. George agrees, and takes the Packers.

Chicago (9-6) at Houston (7-8) - Tough call. Texans have been on an upswing lately (despite the loss in Oakland last week) but Chicago can make the playoffs if they win here and if Minnesota loses to the Giants. Look for a good tough game. Texans would really like their first non-losing season. I'm gonna take the Texans at home. George likes the Bears, and he might be right.

Tennessee (13-2) at Indwpi (11-4) - Division game. Tough call here. Both teams are locked into their playoff slots (1 for the T's, 5 for the Colts). Tony Dungy especially likes to rest his starters as much as possible, but Jeff Fisher might want to play his some, since they have a bye next week. So I guess I'll take the Titans here. They are the better team, after all. George likes the Titans also.

New York Giants (12-3) at Minnesota (9-6) - Giants have home field throughout, a bit of a far cry from last year when they made the playoffs as the number 5 seed. I don't think Tom Coughlin is into resting players a lot, but RB Brandon Jacobs has a sore knee and I don't look for him to play much. Giants sputtered a bit after losing Plaxico Burress for the year (he who shot himself) but they seemed to regain their MOJO by beating the Panthers last week (with home field at stake), although it took OT to do it. Vikings can win the NFCNorth with a win (or if the Bears lose in Houston, and the two games will be concurrent in time.) So, expect more effort from the Vikings, although I think Coughlin will be trying to keep his players playing hard, with a bye week looming. George likes the Vikings also, but we could both be wrong.

Carolina (11-4) at New Orleans (8-7) - Division game. Panthers have the NFC South title if they win (and the first round bye that goes with it), or if they lose and the Falcons lose at home to the Rams, which is not likely. It is statistically likely that the Panthers lose this game - so far this year, the NFC South home team has always successfully defended against a division visitor. Saints are out of the playoffs, but will want to show a division rival what's what. But the Panthers were looking at the number one seed a week ago, then lost in OT to the Giants, and I figure they'll play very hard to get the division title and the bye. Should be a great game - I'm taking the Panthers. George likes the Panthers also.

Cleveland (4-11) at Pittsburgh (11-4) - Division game. Steelers are locked into the number two slot in the playoffs, which means they have a bye next week. Ben R has taken a hell of a beating this year, so I don't expect he'll play much, if at all. But this is still a division game, and I think the rest of the Steelers will want to show the Browns that they have a ways to go to play with the big boys. George likes the Browns.

Oakland (4-11) at Tampa Bay (9-6) - Easiest call of the week. Raiders aren't good (despite beating the Texans in Oakland last week) and they're on the east coast, and the Bucs make the playoffs with a win and a Dallas loss. George likes the Raiders.

the 2:15 MST games:

Jacksonville (5-10) at Baltimore (10-5) - Another easy call. Baltimore gets the second wild card spot if they win, and they're a better team than the Jags. George likes Baltimore.

Miami (10-5) at New York Jets (9-6) - Division game. Miami wins the AFC East if they win this game, regardless of what happened earlier in Buffalo. This is also the homecoming for Chad Pennington, who got dumped for Bret Favre last August. Weather looks to be decent - some sun, some scattered showers, high in the fifties, low in the thirties. As to the quarterback switcheroo, it sure looks like the Dolphins got the better of the deal. Pennington's stats throughout the season have been better than Favre's, and lately Favre has looked like a very old man - 9 sacks, 6 INT's, and 1 TD in the last four games. Take the Dolphins. George likes the Jets, and he could be right - Favre might just get up for this one.

Dallas (9-6) at Philadelphia (8-6-1) - Division game. Eagles get a playoff spot if they win, and if Tampa and Minnesota both lose, or Tampa and Chicago both lose. But Tampa won't lose to the Raiders (you know that). Dallas gets a wild card if they win. And don't think for a minute that Jerry Jones wouldn't like to inaugurate his brand new stadium next year with a Super Bowl winner. By game time, the Eagles will know that Tampa won, and Minnesota or Chicago won, so they'll be playing just to whup up on Jerry's Boys. Taking the Eagles here, and besides it's always possible that they'll have a wild card spot to play for. George likes Jerry's 'Boys.

Seattle (3-12) at Arizona (8-7) - Division game. Cardinals have a division title for the first time in forever, but haven't been playing so hot, so they need to tune it up, and who better to do it against than the Seahawks, who used to own the division? Take the Cardinals at home. George likes the Seahawks, and he could be right - the Hawks would like to show the Cards that they're really the top dog.

Washington (8-7) at San Francisco (6-9) - The second coast to coast game this week. Reds have been faltering, Niners have been getting better. And they get Frank Gore back. George likes the Niners also.

the SNF game:

Denver (8-7) at San Diego (7-8) - Division game. Whoever wins this game goes to the playoffs, loser goes home. Chargers and their fans are still whining about the call by Ed Hochuli in Week Two (Jay Cutler dropped back to pass, the ball fell from his hand, Hochuli blew the whistle, called it an incomplete pass. Replay showed Cutler's hand was not going forward, so it was a fumble, recovered by the Chargers, but it was not officially reviewable because the whistle had blown.) The drop by Cutler still cost the Broncos a down (third) and seven yards. This was late in the game, Chargers up by 7. So, on fourth down, Cutler found Eddie Royal for six. Down by a point, the Broncos went for two, and again Cutler found Royal for two points (only the third time in NFL history that a team went for two (when a PAT would have sent it to OT) and made it to win the game). So, in spite of the gift of a down and yards (not because of anything the Chargers did to cause it), and the fact that the Chargers couldn't prevent a TD pass and a two point pass, they are still whining. They call it "the Hochuli". Broncos had a three game advantage three weeks ago, but blew it, so it comes to this, which is one reason the game was moved to SNF. So, on to basics. Who's gonna win this game? Who knows. Pretty sure it will be a good game, with lots of scoring (the first ended 39-38) and neither team has much D, but both have a lot of O. Broncos put two more RB's on IR last week, so are down to Tatum Bell and Cory Boyd, a rookie off the practice squad. So, it's up to Jay Cutler and his receivers. Brandon Marshall torched Antonio Cromartie in Week Two for 166 yards on 18 catches, and Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler are waiting in the wings. So who's gonna win this game? Well, I know who, but I ain't saying. Don't want to hear any more whining from the Chargers' fans. George also likes the Broncos .

totally non-football

bradley — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 18:45:11 -0000

This is a lot of fun, at least for those of us old enough to remember the 50's, the best decade of the 20th Century. Let the Statler Brothers take you back to the days of Burma Shave signs, bobby socks, Roy Rogers. Turn on your sound and forget about football for a few minutes.

http://oldfortyfives.com/DYRT.htm

here are a few words words words words words to get to sevenyt five words words words words words words.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Sixteen - 2008

bradley — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 21:26:34 -0000

Brad's Picks was just 8-8 last week, right when the New York Jets beat the Bills 31-27; when Miami beat the Forty Niners 14-9; when Ineepa beat the Lions 31-21; when Houston beat the Titans 13-12; when Atlanta beat the Bucs in OT 13-10; when the Patriots beat Oakland 49-28; when Dallas beat the Giants 20-8 on SNF; and when Philadelphia beat the Browns on MNF 30-10.

Brad's Picks was wrong when Chicago beat the Saints on TNF 27-24 in OT; when the Seahawks won in St. Louis 23-20; when the Packers lost in Jacksonville 20-16; when the Chargers came from way behind to win by a point, 22-21, at Arrowhead; when Cincinnati beat the Redskins 20-13; when the Vikings whupped Arizona 35-14; when the Steelers won in Baltimore 13-9 on a disputed TD; and when the Broncos whiffed in Carolina 30-10.

Brad's Picks is 141-82-1 on the season.

Home teams were 11-5 last week (for the second week in a row), and are 127-96-1 on the season. That's 56.6% for the home teams, compared to 54.7% in 2007.

There were two coast to coast games last week, with the visitors going 1-1 (Pats won at Oakland, Niners lost in Miami). Coast to coast visitors are 12-22 on the season.

George was 8-8 last week, and is 105-116-1 on the season.

AFC 6, NFC 0 last week. On the season, it's 28-25 AFC.

Teams coming off a MNF game were 1-1, as Tampa Bay lost and Carolina won. For the season, teams coming off a MNF game are 19-10.

this week:

the TNF game:

Inwapis (10-4) at Jacksonville (5-9) - Division game. Gotta take the Colts, who are playing real good after a slow start. This a division game, and the Jags have been trying to catch the Colts for years, but not this year. Too many injuries for the Jags, altho the Colts have had a lot also. George likes the Colts.

the Saturday game: (at 6:15 MST)

Baltimore (9-5) at Dallas (9-5) - Ravens are feeling a little burned from last week's game with the Steelers. A late catch by a Steeler was ruled down at the 3 inch line, but it was overturned on appeal and the TD awarded to the Steelers. No one seems to be able to tell for sure whether the ball broke the plane or not, so the on-field call should not have been overturned. Maybe the Ravens will take some of that out on the Cowboys, who are still having team problems ala Terrell Owens mostly. Romo has a sore back, and here comes the Ravens D. George likes Dallas.

the Sunday 11:00 MST games:

San Francisco (5-9) at St. Louis (2-12) - Division game. Couple of interim head coaches here (Jim Haslett and Mike Singletary) who would both like to get rid of the interim label. Niners have clearly been a much better team lately, but RB Frank Gore has a sore back and is iffy for the game. But I'll still take the Niners here. George likes the Niners also.

Cincinnati (2-11-1) at Cleveland 4-10) - Division game. Bengals whupped the Reds last week. Browns didn't show up in Philly. George likes Cleveland.

San Diego (6-8) at Tampa Bay (9-5) - Bucs are hoping for a wild card spot, and are in a hot race with Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and maybe Philly. Gotta win this game, Bucs. Chargers were counted for dead a week ago, three games behind the Broncos. But the comeback win in KC, coupled with the Broncos loss at Carolina, means a showdown at San Diego in week 17 if the Chargers can win here, and if the Bills can win at Mile High. But this is a trip from the west coast to the east, and I'll take the Bucs here. George likes the Bucs.

Miami (9-5) at Kansas City (2-12) - Dolphins are in a three way tie for first place in the AFC East. Patriots have an almost sure win hosting the Cardinals, while the Jets have to go to Seattle. Fins barely beat the Niners at home last week, and it's going to be real cold and windy at Arrowhead and I'll take the Chiefs, who've been playing pretty good lately. George likes the Chiefs.

New Orleans (7-7) at Detroit (0-14) - Lions have been playing OK lately, and would really like a win. Saints are basically eliminated from any playoff hopes. Reggie Bush is on IR. George likes the Lions.

Pittsburgh (11-3) at Tennessee (12-2) - This is for home field throughout the playoffs. Steelers have been playing great lately, with a Wow D, and just finding a way to win, like last week at Baltimore. Titans have been not so great lately, and will be without pro-bowler DT Albert Haynesworth for the next two weeks. George likes the Titans.

Arizona (8-6) at New England (9-5) - Both teams flew in from the west coast, but the Patriots did it a couple days earlier, and they're at home. Patriots are playing good. Cards have been totally bad on the east coast this year. George likes the Pats too.

the 2:05 MST games:

New York Jets (9-5) at Seattle (2-12) - Taking the Seahawks here. They've been playing OK with Seneca Wallace at QB, almost beating the Patriots two weeks ago, and winning last week, albeit in St. Louis. This is Coach Mike Holmgren's last game in Seattle, as he rides off into retirement. He's popular with the players, and they'll give it a go for him. Jets have not been looking good lately, barely beating the Bills last week at home. Favre has been looking old, and it's a long plane ride from New York. George likes the Hawks also.

Houston (7-7) at Oakland (3-11) - Raiders just look terrible, don't they? Texans have been on an upbeat lately. George likes the Texans too.

Buffalo (6-8) at Denver (8-6) - Bills will go with Trent Edwards at QB, if he can go. Otherwise, they'll go with Gibran Hamdan, a 27 year old from somewhere who has actually thrown two passes in the NFL. JP Losman is seriously in the dog house. Weather at Mile High will be in the 20's and mostly sunny. Broncos O should be able to win this one, although the run game is not in good shape. George likes the Broncos.

the 2:15 MST games:

Atlanta (9-5) at Minnesota (9-5) - Tough call. Two dome teams. Both 9-5. I like the Falcons behind young Matt Ryan and what they've done to overcome the Michael Vick stench. But I'm taking the Vikings here. Tarvaris Jackson sat on the bench most of the year behind Gus Frerotte, but got his chance last week and fired 4 TD passes. He gets the start even though Frerotte is OK. Take the Vikings and Adrian Peterson at home. George likes the Falcons, and he may be right.

Philadelphia (8-5-1) at Washington (7-7) - Division game. Eagles have been playing better than the Reds. George likes the Eagles.

the SNF game:

Carolina (11-3) at New York Giants (11-3) - This game is for home field throughout. Giants haven't been so hot lately, without Plaxico Burress, Brandon Jacobs, and OL Kareem McKenzie. Carolina has been on a roll. George likes the Giants, and he may be right, if the Giants get McKenzie and Jacobs back, and rise to the occasion.

the MNF game:

Green Bay (5-9) at Chicago (8-6) - Division game. Packers are done, Bears need a win to stay in the playoff race. RB Matt Forte is limping a bit, but should be good by Monday night. George likes the Packers.