SB Nation User Blog: bradley

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Nine - 2009

bradley — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 23:28:13 -0000

Brad's Picks was 8-5 last week. The good, bad and ugly from that:

the good:

Dallas 38, Seahawks 17 - Dallas has scored 101 points in the last three games.

Chicago 30, Browns 6 - Jay Cutler was sacked 4 times by the lowly Browns.

Texans 31, Buffalo 10 - Texans O has been known for it's passing game, but they got 186 ground yards on 40 carries (mostly by Ryan Moats - 126 on 23) and all three of the Texans TD's were on the ground (and all by Moats).

Undeepolis 18, Forty Niners 14 - Niners held the Colts to 4 field goals and a TD pass from RB Joseph Addai.

San Diego 24, Raiders 16 - Raiders have lost 13 straight to the Chargers.

Tennessee 30, Jaguars 13 - Chris Johnson rushed for 228 yards, a Titans record. Vince Young threw for a TD (he was 15-18-0).

Vikings 38, Green Bay 26 - The unretired guy threw four TD passes at his old place, Lambeau Field. A tough one for Packers fans.

New Orleans 35, Falcons 27 - Both defenses scored a TD. Saints turned the ball over four times, Falcons turned it over three times.

the bad:

Dolphins 30, New York Jets 25 - Dolphins had just 104 yards of offense to the Jets' 378, but the Fins got 21 points in the 3rd off two kickoff returns for TDs, and a Jet fumble that was run back for a TD.

the ugly:

Rams 17, Detroit 7 - Lions scored a safety in the 2nd quarter, and then an 8 point TD in the 4th to make it 10-10, but then Steven Jackson ran 25 yards for a TD with 1:38 remaining.

Baltimore 30, Broncos 7 - Ravens needed a win and played like it. Broncos didn't, and didn't.

Philadelphia 40, Giants 17 - Giants have given up 112 points in the last three games.

Panthers 34, Arizona 21 - Kurt Warner threw 5 INT's and lost a fumble.

Brad's Picks is 84-32 on the season. NFC and AFC each had a win last week, so on the season it's AFC 17, NFC 16. Home teams won 8 last week, Visitors 5. On the season it's Home teams 64, Visitors 52. 116 games played so far, 140 to go. George was 0-1 last week (he picked the Giants). George is 2-2 on the season.

This week: off this week are Bills, Jets, Raiders, Vikings, Rams, and Browns.

the 11:00 MST Sunday games:

Arizona (4-3) at Chicago (4-3) - Cardinals are 3-0 on the road this year. They lost at home last week to the Panthers (6 turnovers by Kurt Warner) - will a trip to Chicago help? Chicago beat the Browns last week by 24 but didn't really look good doing it. The Browns dominated the line of scrimmage and sacked Jay Cutler four times. Cardinals have 17 sacks on opposing QB's this year. I don't think Warner will have two bad games in a row and I'm seeing Arizona at 4-0 on the road come Sunday evening.

Washington (2-5) at Atlanta (4-3) - Washington is off a bye, Atlanta is off a Monday night loss at New Orleans. Matt Ryan hasn't been playing very well lately (7 INT's the last three games) but you gotta take the Falcons at home against the Reds.

Miami (3-4) at New England (5-2) - Division game. New England is off a bye. These two teams will meet again in four weeks. The Jets were able to shut down the Dolphins offense last week, and Bill Belichick is unworldly after a bye, especially when he's facing a young QB (Chad Henne). Take the Patriots in a game I'd like to watch.

Houston (5-3) at Undeeepolis (7-0) - Division game These two teams will meet again in three weeks.

Texans are playing good (31-10 win at Buffalo last week) while the Colts struggled at home against the Niners. Colts lost starting LB Tyjuan Hagler for the year, Texans lost TE Owen Daniels for the year. Daniels has been maybe the best TE in the league this year. But he was already gone when the Texans put up 22 points in the 4th quarter at Buffalo.

Texans discovered a RB gem in Ryan Moats last week - 126 yards and three TD's on 23 carries. Moats has been in the league since 2005 (from Louisiana Tech), mostly with the Eagles, but injuries have kept him on the bench. At 5'8" and 210 pounds, he could cause problems for the Colts' D, which is 27th against the run.

I'd like to watch this game, even though I don't like dome games,and I'd like to take the Texans, but until the Colts lose a game, it's hard to pick against them, especially at the Lucas Oil Drum Dome. Still, the two games last year between these two were decided by 4 and 6 points, and the Texans are better than last year.

Baltimore (4-3) at Cincinnati (5-2) - Division game. Their first game was October 11 at Baltimore and resulted in a 17-14 win for the Bengals, on a late TD pass from Carson Palmer to Andre Caldwell. Ravens got the ball back with 22 seconds left but couldn't manage a field goal. This game is in Cincinnati, Ravens had a very physical game last week against the Broncos, and Cincinnati is off the bye.

Green Bay (4-3) at Tampa Bay (0-7) - Tampa Bay is off a bye. Green Bay is off a humiliating loss at home to the unretired guy. Packers O line is pretty bad, but the Bucs are on their 3rd QB of the year, rookie Josh Freeman, and the Bucs D is terrible. Take the Packers.

Kansas City (1-6) at Jacksonville (3-4) - Maurice Jones-Drew gained 177 yards at Tennessee last week on just 8 carries. Jags are at home and are the better team.

the 2:05 MST games:

Detroit (1-6) at Seattle (2-5) - Lions couldn't beat the Rams in Detroit last week. They won't win in Seattle.

Carolina (3-4) at New Orleans (7-0) - Division game. Panthers got lucky on the road in Arizona (six turnovers by Kurt Warner), but the Saints will continue on as an unbeaten team after this week. They already have 17 INT's this year (16 total in 08) and here comes Jake Delhomme (13 INT's this year).

the 2:15 MST games:

San Diego (4-3) at New York Giants (5-3) - Giants started 5-0, then lost the next three. They've lost two starters from their defensive backfield, and that's pretty much when they started losing games. Even worse, though, is that QB Eli Manning is on the skids, which started when he hurt his heel.

Chargers are 4-0 against teams with losing records, 0-3 against teams with winning records. What the Chargers do well, though, is throw the ball down field. Philip Rivers to Vincent Jackson has been hot lately - 245 yards on 13 catches and two TD's the last two games.

Giants RB Brandon Jacobs has been averaging 4.9 per carry the last three games (at NO, Cardinals, and at Philly), after averaging 3.3 the first five. If Big Brandon can keep Rivers on the bench, the Giants can win this game at home.

Tennessee (1-6) at San Francisco (3-4) - Niners starting RT Tony Pashos was lost for the year a week ago, and on the first play of the Colts game last week, LT Joe Staley went down and is out for about six weeks. But the Niners did OK at Undee anyway. Alex Smith is playing well at QB (19-32-1-198 and a TD last week) and TE Vernon Davis is having a career year. Rookie WR Michael Crabtree is playing like he didn't hold out until a couple weeks ago (137 on 11 catches in two games).

Titans' Chris Johnson went wild last week against the Jags (228 on 24 carries and 2 TD's - one from 52 yards out and one from 89), but the Titans also gave up 177 yards to Maurice Jones-Drew on just 8 carries. Vince Young was good in his first start in a long time, going 15-18-0-125 and a six yard TD pass.

This looks like it will be a fun game to watch. Niner D did a great job in Undee last week, and if they can focus on stopping Chris Johnson, and keep it going on offense, they can win a wild one.

the SNF game:

Dallas (5-2) at Philadelphia (5-2) - Division game. Dallas WR Austin Miles has caught a TD pass in three straight games, and Tony Romo hasn't thrown an INT for three straight games. Dallas has scored 101 points in the last three games. Eagles have scored 76 in the last three games. None of that means a whole lot in a division game on prime time. I guess I'll go with the Eagles at home - they get Brian Westbrook back.

the MNF game:

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Denver (6-1) - Steelers are off a bye, while the Broncos had to endure a very physical game in Baltimore last week. Don't look for a lot of rushing yards in this game - Steelers are first against the run, Broncos are third. Steelers haven't had much of a run game, relying on Ben R to pass for their yards. Kyle Orton didn't look too good last week against a very physical Ravens D, and the Steelers D is just as physical, if not more so. Steelers have lost their starting DE for the year and his backup for this game, but the Broncos have lost their starting RT, Ryan Harris, for three weeks. Teams have had some success with the dink and dunk pass game against the Steelers lately, and the Broncos can do that as well as anyone. Besides, this game is at Mile High on Monday night.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Eight - 2009

bradley — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:15:01 -0000

Brad's Picks was 9-4 last week. The good, the bad and the ugly from that:

the good:

Patriots 35, London Buccaneers 7 - Tom Brady threw two interceptions.

Pittsburgh 27, Vikings 17 - Bret Favre lost a fumble and threw an INT. The fumble was run back 77 yards by the Steelers for a TD, and the INT was run back 82 for a TD. Pretty much the game. Oh, and the fact that the Vikings couldn't get a TD with a first and goal from the one in the 3rd quarter.

Houston 24, Forty Niners 21 - Matt Schaub is on fire for the Texans.

Packers 31, Cleveland 3 - It wasn't that close.

Chargers 37, Kansas City 7 - It wasn't that close.

Colts 42, St. Louis 0 - It wasn't that close. And Peyton Manning didn't even get 300 yards (for the first time this year).

Cincinnati 45, Bears 10 - It wasn't that close. Cedric Benson got a little payback against the team that let him go (37 carries for 189 yards and a TD).

Dallas 37, Falcons 21 - Matt Ryan was sacked four times, lost a fumble, and threw 2 INT's.

Eagles 27 , Washington 17 (MNF) - To add insult to injury, the Reds lost their very good TE Chris Cooley with a broken ankle.

the bad:

Cardinals 24, New York Giants 21 (SNF) - Arizona's defense harassed Eli Manning into tossing three INT's.

the ugly:

Bills 20, Carolina 9 - Carolina outgained the Bills 425 yards to 167, but also turned the ball over 4 times and missed two field goals.

Jets 38, Oakland 0 - JaMarcus Russell tossed 2 INT's, got sacked, lost a fumble and got benched with 5:45 left in the second quarter with the Jets up 21-0, but thinks he was playing OK.

Saints 46, Miami 34 - Miami led 24-3 with just seconds to go in the first half.

Brad's Picks is 76-27 on the season. Last week the AFC pounded the NFC 6-2. On the season, it's AFC 16, NFC 15. Visiting teams pounded the homers 9-4. On the season, it's homers 56, visitors 47. 103 games have been played; 153 to go.

this week: Off this week are New England, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Washington and Tampa Bay. So only 13 games this week.

the 11:00 MDT games:

Denver (6-0) at Baltimore 3-3) - Both teams are off a bye. Ray Rice is averaging 163 yards per game for the Ravens - 6 per on ground and 9.8 per catch But the Ravens have given up 309 yards on the ground the last two weeks (against the Bengals and Minnesota, two pretty good running teams). Broncos are also a pretty good running team. Here's the thing - the game will be close, because it's in Baltimore. But the Ravens corners are not good at all, and Kyle Orton's busted finger is finally at peace with the rest of his hand, and the Broncos will win this game. Maybe it won't be that close after all.

Houston (4-3) at Buffalo (3-4) - Texans went up 21-0 at half time vs. the Niners, then held on to win 24-21. Andre Johnson, maybe the best wide receiver in the league, suffered a bruised sternum and lung in the 4th quarter of last week's game. Texans are saying he's day to day, but he's coughing up blood and if they let this guy play this week they should be shot. Texans TE Owen Daniels was 7 for 123 last week (AJ was 2-62). Forecast is for mostly cloudy, some sun, maybe a few rain showers. Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to fill in for Trent Edwards (concussion) and is doing at least as good as Edwards. This is a tough call. Bills won at Carolina last week, but Carolina turned it over 4 times. I'll take the Texans. Their D has really stiffened up lately.

Cleveland (1-6) at Chicago (3-3) - Both teams got whupped and good last week, Bears by Cincinnati, Cleveland by the Packers. But the Bears will win this one.

Seattle (2-4) at Dallas (4-2) - Seattle is off a bye. Dallas' D was all over Matt Ryan last week in their bizarro dome - four sacks in the game, after Ryan had only been sacked twice the whole season. Seattle has problems with their O line (their all-pro LT Walter Jones is out for the season), and the 'Boys found some pass rush last week versus the Falcons, so I'll take the quirky Cowboys in the home bizarrodome.

St. Louis (0-7) at Detroit (1-5) - Detroit is off a bye. Matthew Stafford is back at practice after missing a couple games with a subluxed knee. But WR Calvin Johnson is questionable for the game. But the Rams are pretty bad, except for RB Steven Jackson, so take the Lions at home.

San Francisco (3-3) at Undiep (6-0) - Alex Smith replaced Shaun Hill at QB for the Niners last week and brought the Niners back from a 21-0 halftime deficit in Houston. Smith was 15-22-1-206 with two TD passes to TE Vernon Davis. Smith, the number one overall pick in 2005, has been named the starter. Niners played much better on both sides of the ball after Smith came in, holding Houston to just 3 points in the 2nd, after giving up 21 in the first half. So, things are looking up for the Niners, but, alas, they have to play at the Lucas Oil Drum Dome, where Peyton Manning isn't missing Anthony Gonzalez that much with rookie Austin Collie (4th round, BYU) snagging 4 TD's in the last three games. Take the Colts in their first game at the Oil Drum in four weeks.

Miami (2-4) at New York Jets (4-3) - Division game. Jets RB Leon Washington left the game at Oakland early with a broken leg and is out for the year. But rookie Shonn Greene ran for 144 on 19, and veteran Thomas Jones ran for 121 on 26. All in all the Jets piled up 316 ground yards on 54 carries, an average of 5.8 per carry. It was the second 300 plus rush performance in a row for the Jets, but the Dolphins D is 6th versus the rush. And, the Dolphins are 2nd in the AFC in rushing (Jets are first). Both average over 170 per game on the ground. These teams are 10th and 11th on O in the AFC, 5th and 6th on D. Look for another close game. These two teams met in Week Five on MNF - Dolphins won 31-27. In Week 17 last year, it was Dolphins 24, Jets 17. Weather should be decent - cloudy, a little sun, maybe some rain showers. Close game, but the Fins lost starting CB Jason Allen for the season (ACL) and I'll take the Jets at home.

New York Giants (5-2) at Philadelphia (4-2) - Division game. Okay - Yankees at Phillies, always a tough matchup. Oh, wait. This is Giants at Eagles. Still a tough matchup. Eagles got drubbed two weeks ago at Oakland, then just barely beat Washington 27-17 on MNF. Giants got drubbed at New Orleans two weeks ago, then lost at home to the Cardinals. Eli Manning hurt his heel three weeks ago, and hasn't been the same since. But Brian Westbrook was knocked out last week in Washington, and lay immobile on the field for several minutes before recovering and walking off. Heck of a concussion. Andy Reid is saying he's hopeful Westbrook can play this week, but it would be criminal if he does. This is a toss-up, and George wants his say. I'm taking the Giants. George says.......take the Giants.

the 2:05 MDT games:

Oakland (2-5) at San Diego (3-3) - Division game. It was Chargers 24, Oakland 20 in Week One. Raiders have regressed mightily since then, so take San Diego.

Jacksonville 3-3) at Tennessee (0-6) - Division game. Both teams are off a bye. Titans owner Bud Adams has expressed that he wants Vince Young to start at QB. It's still Jeff Fisher's decision but realistically, what's a head coach to do? Kerry Collins is long past the point of being a good NFL QB and the Titans are not going to make the playoffs this year, so you should see if Young has learned anything on the bench. It was Jacksonville 37, Titans 17 in Week Four. Jags have Maurice Jones-Drew at RB, T's have LenDale White and Chris Johnson. The Nashville Tennessean is reporting that Young will start, and I think the Titans (13-3 last season!) will wreak a little havoc on the Jags with Young and Johnson tearing things up.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Minnesota (6-1) at Green Bay (4-2) - Division game. They moved this game from the 11:00 time slot (moving the Giants at Eagles game from 2:15 to 11:00) for some reason. Oh, yeah, Bret Favre returns to Lambeau. Reports are that Packers fans are ready to lop Favre's head off. I agree with Favre: "Get over it". This isn't really about Favre versus the Packers, it's about the Vikings versus the Packers. They met in Minneapolis in Week Four, the Vikings winning 30-23. That sounds about right for this game also.

Carolina (2-4) at Arizona (4-2) - Arizona's defense is pretty darn good.

No SNF this week - something to do with something called the World Series, which has to do with some sort of game played on a diamond with a round ball (how weird is that?) and a stick. Brad's Picks is investigating.

the MNF game:

Atlanta (4-2) at New Orleans (6-0) - Division game. Put your early money on the Saints and the Colts in the Super Bowl next February.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Seven - 2009

bradley — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 23:04:55 -0000

Brad's NFL Picks was 9-5 last week. Here's the good, the bad, and the ugly.

the good:

Green Bay 26, Lions 0 - Aaron Rogers got sacked five times, but still was 29-37-1-358 and two TD's

New Orleans 48, New York Giants 27 - It wasn't that close. But two turnovers by the Giants didn't help.

Pittsburgh 27, Browns 14 - Ben R threw for 417 yards; Derek Anderson threw for 122.

Panthers 28, Tampa Bay 21 - 14 of Tampa's points came on a 97 yard kickoff return and a 26 yard INT return. But the Panthers put up 267 yards on the ground. Didn't the Bucs have a defense at one time?

Jacksonville 23, Rams 20 (OT) - What can I say about this one? Oh, Tory Holt had 101 yards receiving for the Jags (against his former team).

Minnesota 33, Ravens 31 - Vikings were up 30-17 with six minutes left in the 4th when the wheels came off the Viking D. They needed a 58 yard pass from Favre to Sidney Rice and a 31 yard field goal to retake the lead, with just under two minutes left. Even then the Vikings needed a lot of luck as Ravens kicker Steve Hauschka missed a 44 yard FG attempt with two seconds to go.

New England 59, Titans 0 - Tom Brady set an NFL record with 5 TD passes in one quarter.

Atlanta 21, Bears 14 (SNF) - Bears had the ball in the red zone 4 times, but only scored once.

Broncos 34, San Diego 23 (MNF) - Broncos have outscored the oppo 73-10 in the second half.

the bad:

Chiefs 14, Washington 6 - Chiefs were so happy to finally get a win they gave the coach a Gatorade shower.

Oakland 13, Eagles 9 - Not even Jehovah saw this one coming.

Bills 16, New York Jets 13 (OT) - Both teams were pretty bad in OT. When it ended, there was just 2:44 left on the clock.

the ugly:

Texans 28, Cincinnati 17 - Texans previously inept defense held Cedric Benson to 44 yards on 16 rushes.

Cardinals 27, Seattle 3 - What happened to the Seattle team that whupped the Jags 41-0 just a week ago?

Brad's Picks is 67 - 23 on the season. NFC 1, AFC 3 last week. On the season, it's NFC 13, AFC 10. Home teams won 8 last week, visitors won 6. On the season it's homers 52, visitors 38. 90 games have been played, 166 to go.

this week: Teams with a bye: Denver, Baltimore, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, and Tennessee.

the 11:00 MDT games:

Minnesota (6-0) at Pittsburgh (4-2) - Vikings hadn't allowed a rushing TD this season, until Ray Rice got two long ones last week (22 and 33). Vikings all pro CB Antoine Winfield is probably out with a sprained foot. The injury happened in the second quarter last week versus the Ravens. The Ravens scored all of their 31 points after Winfield went down. Ben R passed for 417 yards versus the Browns and leads the league in passing yards and I'm taking the Steelers here - they are at home and need it more and the Vikings aren't going to be real focussed with next week's game being at Lambeau.

San Francisco (3-2) at Houston (3-3) - San Francisco is off a bye, and the Texans are off a big win at Cincinnati. Texans were previously inept at stopping the run, but held Cedric Benson to just 44 on 16 carries. Even after that, Benson is 2nd in the AFC in total yards on the ground. Texans Matt Schaub is on pace for 37 TD's this year. Niners get RB Frank Gore back. Aargh. Tough call. Might be a little warmish in Houston so I'll hope the home team keeps it going.

Undianapolis (5-0) at St. Louis (0-6) - Undy is off a bye. I'm sure they needed it to get ready for the juggernaut Rams. Rams are feeling so good about themselves that they just traded a starting line backer to the Eagles for a rookie WR and a 5th next year. Colts won't know what hit them.

San Diego (2-3) at Kansas City (1-5) - Division game. I missed one last week by picking Washington over the Chiefs, thinking that the Chiefs were really bad. What I failed to see is that Washington is worse. Statistically, they are better on both O and D, but they still haven't played a team that had a win going into the game. Anyway, the Chargers got thumped at home on MNF so they have a short week, but they will try to take out their frustrations at Arrowhead this Sunday. That is, if Philip Rivers can stand up - he got sacked 5 times by the Broncos and knocked down several more times on Monday night. Chargers won both games last year, but only by one point. I won't be surprised if I'm wrong on this one.

New England (3-2) at Tampa Bay (0-6) - Well, this game isn't actually at Tampa Bay. It's in Ye Merrye Olde Englande. But Tampa gets to be the home team, which means they get to wear their home team uni's. It also means that the Bucs only play 7 games in Tampa this year. Memo to Roger Goodell: if Englande wants to see some footeball, let them start their owne league. Anyway, the Bucs are going through major changes with wholesale turnover in roster and coaching staff, while Newe Englande strolls along at a bloody jolly goode level.

Green Bay (3-2) at Cleveland (1-5) - Browns had 12 players home with the flu, five of them starters, in the middle of the week. Browns starting LB and defensive captain D'Qwell Jackson is out for the season. Aaron Rodgers leads the league with 25 sacks. Except for that stat (his O line is less than good) Rodgers is a very good QB. You have to take the Packers here.

the 2:05 MDT games:

Buffalo (2-4) at Carolina (2-3) - Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson at RB for the Bills, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart for the Panthers. They'll go up against two of the worst run defenses in the league. Steve Smith is irked that he's been ignored and Jake Delhomme (who's been playing a little better) says he'll be looking for him. Taking Carolina at home, where they are 9-1 recently.

New York Jets (3-3) at Oakland (2-4) - Jets DT Kris Jenkins is out for the season (a huge loss), and Rex Ryan has benched two other D guys for slugging a Bills player last week. Mark Sanchez has tossed 10 INT's, JaMarcus Russell a mere 6. Raiders did a job on the Eagles last week in the Black Hole and I think the Eagles are a better team than the Jets (although the Jets have been put on notice) and I'll take the Raiders at home.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Atlanta (4-1) at Dallas (3-2) - Dallas is off a bye. Atlanta had a big win on SNF over the Bears. Dallas' two losses are to Denver and the Giants, with a combined W/L record of 11-1. Dallas wins are over teams with a combined record of 3-14. Teams are about even stat wise (yardage and all that). I think Atlanta is maybe the better team, but I'll take Dallas off a bye in their bizarro dome.

Chicago (3-2) at Cincinnati (4-2) - Bengals lost DT Domato Peko for a couple weeks, but also lost DE Antwan Odom for the season - Odom had 8 sacks going into last weeks game. Bears lost starting LB Pisa Tinoisamoa for the season, but get Hunter Hillenmeyer back after missing 3 weeks with an injury. Both teams lost last week, Bears at Atlanta and Cincy at home to the Texans. Cedric Benson tries for a little payback on the team that drafted him 4th overall in 05, then cut him in 08 and (he says) tried to blackball him. This is a hard call - can Jay Cutler duplicate Matt Schaub's success (28-40-1-392 and three TD's) of last week? My guess is not. Take the Bengals.

New Orleans (5-0) at Miami (2-3) - Miami is off a bye, Saints are off a drubbing of the Giants in the Big Easy Dome. Drew Brees is playing great, but he has his mortal moments - he was just 16-29-0-172 and no TD's at Buffalo, and 20-32-0-190 with 0 TD's in 24-10 win over the Jets at the Easy Dome (2 defensive TD's for the Saints in that game). We may see some thunderstorms in Miami, and I'll take the home team after a week off. Fins are really a powerful team on both sides of the ball, and Chad Henne has been playing real good at QB.

the SNF game:

Arizona (3-2) at New York Giants (5-1) - Giants got whupped last week in New Orleans and will take it out on the Cardinals.

the MNF game:

Philadelphia (3-2) at Washington (2-4) - Division game. Hey, the Redskins finally get to play a team that starts the game with a win. But the Redskins are in total disarray, and the Eagles are smarting from the big loss on the West Coast last week.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Six - 2009

bradley — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:59:22 -0000

Brad's Picks was 11-3 last week. Here's the good, the bad and the ugly from that:

the good:

Denver 20, Patriots 17 (OT) - Kyle Orton led the Broncos on a 98 yard TD drive in the 4th to tie the game and send it to OT.

Steelers 28, Detroit 20 - Ben R threw 4 TD passes last week, but one was to a Lion.

New York Giants 44, Raiders 7 - Gloom and doom in Oakland.

Cowboys 26, Kansas City 20 (OT) - Cowboys weren't expecting two tough games in a row at the AFC West, and were lucky to escape with one win.

Vikings 38, St. Louis 10 - Vikes didn't suffer a let down after their big win over the Packers on MNF but took care of business in the dark dome.

Carolina 20, Redskins 17 - Redskins let a 17-2 lead slip away.

Philadelphia 33, Bucs 14 - Donovan McNabb was sharp after missing two games with a rib injury.

Seattle 41, Jags 0 - Matt Hasselbeck was sharp after missing two games with a rib injury.

Arizona 28, Texans 21 - This was really two games - Cardinals won the first half 21-0, Texans won the second half 21-7.

Colts 31, Tennessee 9 - Titans have already lost two more games than in all of 2008 (regular season).

Miami 31, Jets 27 - Jets successfully faked two punts, but the Dolphins came from behind 3 times in the 4th quarter.

the bad:

Browns 6, Buffalo 3 - Derek Anderson completed just two passes the whole game, so how did the Browns win this game?

Bengals 17, Baltimore 14 - Carson Palmer tossed a 20 yard TD pass to win the game with just seconds on the clock.

the ugly:

Falcons 45, San Francisco 10 - Niners were booed off the field at half time. Gonna be a long two weeks (they have a bye) with Mike Singletary on them the whole time.

Brad's Picks is 58-18 on the season. Home teams were 7-7 last week, and on the season it's homers 44, visitors 32. NFC 4, AFC 1 last week. On the season, it's NFC 12, AFC 7. George flotched it last week, taking the Patriots for the 3rd straight week. George is 2-1 on the season.

this week: off this week are Miami, Undy, Dallas and San Francisco.

the 11:00 MDT games:

Detroit (1-4) at Green Bay (2-2) - Division game. Gotta take the Packers at Lambeau, even though the Lions are playing better than last year (Lions are 22nd in the league on D, 21st on O). (Green Bay is 18th and 14th respectively.)

New York Giants (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (4-0) - Giants are 2nd in the league in O, Saints 3rd. Giants are 1st in D, Saints 6th. Saints were pretty bad on D last year, but bringing in Gregg Williams to be the D coordinator has changed that. I'm taking the Saints at home after a bye, even though the Giants had a laugher at home against the Raiders.

Cleveland (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-2) - Division game. Steelers are 11-0 against the Browns lately. Ben R is 9-0. Browns' QB Derek Anderson managed to complete just two passes last week at Buffalo.

Houston (2-3) at Cincinnati (4-1) - Bengals are 7-1 in their last 8 games, the lone loss coming at Mile High, by one point. Cedric Benson leads the league in rushing, and Carson Palmer is getting it back after an injury last year. Texans got hot in Arizona in the second half last week, but it takes 4 quarters to win in the NFL. Take Cincinnati.

Kansas City (0-5) at Washington (2-3) - Washington had a 17-2 lead against Carolina last week, but lost anyway. These two teams are pretty bad, but I'll take the 2-3 Reds versus the 0-5 Chiefs in Washington, despite the fact that the Chiefs took the Cowboys to OT at Arrowhead last week.

Carolina (1-3) at Tampa Bay (0-5) - Division game. Carolina showed some grit by coming back from a 17-2 deficit (in the third quarter) against the Redskins last week. Bucs haven't shown any grit at all.

St. Louis (0-5) at Jacksonville (2-3) - Jags have been up and down this year, Rams have just been down.

Baltimore (3-2) at Minnesota (5-0) - Brett Fave is 5-0 for the first time in his career. And he has the 4th best QB rating in the league. Maybe he should have been playing in Purple his whole career. Ravens gave up 142 on the ground to the Bengals last week and here comes Adrian Peterson. Take the Vikings in their home dome.

the 2:05 MDT games:

Philadelphia (3-1) at Oakland (1-4) - You could say that Oakland is the worst team in the NFL but they really aren't that good. Sorry, Raiders fans, but you know it's true. Eagles.

Arizona (2-2) at Seattle (2-3) - Division game. Kurt Warner was 20-23-0-262 in the first half last week against the Texans, but just 6-15-40 in the second half. And that was in the desert. This game will be in Seattle, where the temp will be in the 40's and it will be rainy. Matt Hasselbeck was 18-30-241 with no INT's and 4 TD tosses in his first game after missing two with a rib injury. Take the Seahawks. They want their division crown back.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Buffalo (1-4) at New York Jets (3-2) - Division game. Mark Sanchez has been OK in his rookie start, but he's thrown just as many INT's as TD's (5) but he's been on the road for two weeks. It might be rainy in the Big Apple but I look for the Jets to win this one. Bills aren't very good.

Tennessee (0-5) at New England (3-2) - Patriots lost in OT at Mile High last week. They'll take it out on the hapless Titans.

the SNF game:

Chicago (3-1) at Atlanta (3-1) - Chicago is off a bye. Atlanta was off a bye last week and went to San Francisco and killed the Niners, 45-10. These two teams met in Atlanta last year in Week Six. I'm sure you all remember how Kyle Orton tossed a game winning TD to make the score Bears 20, Atlanta 19, with just seconds left in the game. But the Bears squib kicked, and Matt Ryan made a great sideline throw, and Jason Elam kicked a 48 yard FG to win the game for the Falcons. I expect that this game will also be close, but when in doubt, take the home team. Atlanta.

the MNF game:

Denver (5-0) at San Diego (2-2) - Division game. Chargers are 32nd in run O, and have the 26th worst defense. Broncos are 5th in run O and 2nd in total D ( total yards, that is - Denver is first in points allowed). Chargers have some injuries, and I see the Broncos in a bit of a romp. But hang on - both teams have been good in the second half.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Five - 2009

bradley — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:13:37 -0000

Brad's Picks was 14-0 last week, so no bad this week, nor any ugly. And George is 2-0 on the season, having correctly called the last two Patriots games.

the good:

Denver 17, Cowboys 10 - Dallas scored 10 points in the first quarter.

Chicago 48, Lions 24 - It was 21-21at halftime.

Houston 29, Raiders 6 - Houston had three players unavailable because of illness, one with swine flu.

Washington 16, Bucs 13 - Bucs jumped out to a 10-0 halftime lead, but missed two long field goals in the game.

Undeenaplis 34, Seahawks 17 - Undy scored a TD on four of it's first five possessions.

Giants 27, Kansas City 16 - Matt Cassell threw two TD passes in the 4th quarter, after Eli Manning left the game with a heel injury.

New England 27, Ravens 21 - Ravens still have never ever beaten the Patriots.

Bengals 23, Cleveland 20 (OT) - Bengals wouldn't have needed OT except Cleveland's Big Shaun Rogers blocked a PAT with just a couple minutes remaining in regulation. Rogers also blocked a FG attempt earlier in the game.

Jacksonville 37, Titans 17 - Titans need a Young quarterback.

Miami 38, Bills 10 - Miami's Chad Henne was 14-22-0-115 with one TD pass in his first game as a starter.

New Orleans 24, Jets 10 - Darren Sharper ran a KO 101 yards for a TD, and Remi Ayodele recovered a Jets fumble in the end zone for another. Both teams averaged 4.8 yards per carry on the ground.

San Francisco 35, Rams 0 - Rams have lost 14 straight games.

Pittsburgh 38, Chargers 28 - Chargers are now 0-14 in the Steel City.

Minnesota 30, Packers 23 - Pack held Adrian Peterson to 2.2 yards per carry, but Brett Favre was 24 of 31 for 271 yards and 3 touchdown passes.

Brad's Picks is 47-15 on the season. Home team fans had a good weekend as the home teams won 12 of 14. On the season, it's home teams 37, visitors 25. NFC 2, AFC 2 last Sunday. On the season, it's NFC 8, AFC 6.

Teams with a bye this week: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego.

this week: the 11:00 MDT games:

Cincinnati (3-1) at Baltimore (3-1) - Division game. Whoever wins this game will lead the AFC North, at least for a week. Ravens' pass D has not been very good, but their offense has been real good, especially the run game. Ray Rice was a beast last week at New England (101 on 11 carries) and the Bengals gave up 146 yards on 33 carries to the Browns last week. That's enough information right there for me to take the Ravens.

Cleveland (0-4) at Buffalo (1-3) - Bills have allowed 472 yards on the ground the last two weeks and Trent Edwards threw 3 INT's last week as the Bills got humbled in Miami. Derek Anderson took over at QB for the Browns and was 26-48-1-269 and a one yard TD pass but the game ended in an OT loss against a division opponent, and that might give the Browns a let down. I don't have a clue about the outcome of this game so will just go with the home team. Take the Bills. All those yards given up on the ground by the Bills the last two weeks were against the Saints and the Dolphins.

Washington (2-2) at Carolina (0-3) - Carolina is off a bye. Jake Delhomme throws to the other team a lot. Jason Campbell threw to the Bucs three times and lost a fumble last week at home. Both teams should keep it on the ground, with Clinton Portis for the Reds and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart for the Panthers. Hard game to call, so I'll go with Carolina at home. They've had a week to get ready.

Pittsburgh (2-2) at Detroit (1-3) - Looks like the Lions let their win streak go to their heads: HC Jim Schwartz said of the beatdown by the Bears: "We were poor on special teams, on offense, on defense. We were outcoached and their trainers were better than ours." Anyway, Lions' young QB Matt Stafford got his knee banged up pretty good last week, but might be able to play Sunday. Maybe they should let him sit and see what Daunte Culpepper can do, rather than put the good looking rookie QB out there to face the Steeler's pass rush with a bum knee.

Dallas (2-2) at Kansas City (0-4) - Last week an NFC East team had an easy one at Arrowhead. This week it's the Cowboy's turn.

Oakland (1-3) at New York Giants (4-0) - Giants blew up Kansas City last week, and now they get another weak sister of the NFL. JaMarcus Russell has a QB rating of 44 and Darren McFadden will miss a few games. Eli Manning hurt his heel somehow last week on a no-contact thing, but it's just a pain thing for him. Anyway, no worries for the Giants - Raiders are incapable of winning this game. Giants enjoy their first home game since the opener against the Reds.

Tampa Bay (0-4) at Philadelphia (2-1) - I don't know if Donovan McNabb will play (rib injury four weeks ago) but Kevin Kolb was pretty good in relief for two games - 55-85-718 (8.44 per attempt), 3 INT's, 4 TD's and two sacks. (All the INT's were in the first game against New Orleans). Anyway, Eagles had a bye week, which ideally should be helpful in getting ready for a tough game, preferably on the road. But the Eagles get sort of cheated in that regard as the hapless Bucs come to Philadelphia.

Minnesota (4-0) at St. Louis (0-4) - After a tough MNF game, where the Vikings and Brett Favre had a fairly tough game against the Packers, they have to go on the road. You don't think?? Nah. Take the Vikings. Rams are pretty bad (0-14 lately).

the 2:05 MDT game:

Atlanta (2-1) at San Francisco (3-1) - Atlanta is off a bye week. Two good teams here - SF would be 4-0 if not for Brett Favre's miracle throw with two seconds remaining two weeks ago in Minnesota. Mike Singletary has his team playing really well, and QB Shaun Hill has completed 62 % of his passes while tossing 5 TD's and just one INT so far this season. Forty Niners are 8-3 with Singletary at HC and Hill at QB. I might take the Falcons if the game were on the other coast.

the 2:15 MDT games:

New England (3-1) at Denver (4-0) - Broncos rookie HC Josh McDaniels has the NFL world all aflutter with a 4-0 start, after the Jay Cutler thing in the off season. And here come the Patriots, McDaniels' team for the last eight years. This will be a real good game. Forecast is for a temp of about 40 at kickoff, with some rain, maybe turning to snow later. I could talk about how the Patriots have lost their best RB, Fred Taylor, probably for the season, but how they have Sammie Morris and Kevin Faulk, and Randy Moss and Wes Welker and Tom Brady. But I don't feel like going into that, so I'll just say that McDaniels and Belichick know each other very well, but McDaniels knows the Patriots a lot better than Belichick knows the Broncos. I think the Broncos are a stronger team overall and will win this game easily. George has gone 2-0 the last two weeks in calling Patriots victories, and once again he says the Patriots will win. He'll be 2-1 on Sunday night.

Houston (2-2) at Arizona (1-2) - Arizona is off a bye and the forecast is for about 90 degrees at kickoff. That shouldn't really bother the boys from Texas all that much though. These teams have real good passing games - Cards' Larry Fitzgerald and Texans' Andre Johnson are the two best receivers in the league. Neither teams' defense has been very good - they've both given up 23 points per game. I see the teams as about equal, so will go with the the Cardinals at home - they've had a week to get ready.

Jacksonville (2-2) at Seattle (1-3) - Jags D is not very good, nor is Seattle's - both have given up 21 or so points a game. I don't really know much about either team. Jags have a real long flight to get way up to Seattle in the northwest, so let's go with that.

the SNF game:

Undeepolis (4-0) at Tennessee (0-4) - Division game. Kerry Collins has been pretty bad, and maybe the T's should give Vince Young a shot. But Jeff Fisher says no, you don't switch horses in the middle of a stream. But regardless of the horse, the Colts will win this game. Peyton Manning is so hot that if the game wasn't in Tennessee, the Lucas Oil Drum Stadium might catch fire.

the MNF game:

New York Jets (3-1) at Miami (1-3) - Division game. Dolphins have been dominating the time of possession stat, but little else until last week when they whupped the Bills 38-10. The forecast is high of 90, low of 79 so even though it's a night game, the heat should help the Dolphins. They won't dominate the time of possession so much, since the Jets do have a real good defense. Miami is 4th against the run and have sacked their opponents eleven times. Jets Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has been sacked 7 times in the last two games. Taking the Miami heat here.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Four - 2009

bradley — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 21:59:09 -0000

Brad's Picks was 11-5 this week. The good, bad and ugly from that:

the good:

Broncos 23, Oakland 3. Broncos had to punt two times.

Detroit 19, Redskins 14. Detroit won a game after 19 straight losses.

Baltimore 34, Browns 3. Keith Olbermann said it well: Tackling was optional for the Browns defense.

Minnesota 27, Forty Niners 24. Brett Favre threw a 32 yard TD pass with 2 seconds remaining.

New England 26, Falcons 10. Patriots ruined Matt Ryan's return to Boston. Belichick actually used the hood on his hoodie. But consider that the score was 13-10 at halftime.

Giants 26, Tampa Bay 0. Bucs gained 86 net yards the entire game, 56 of those in garbage time. Derrick Ward only got 2 yards on 5 carries against his old team mates.

Philadelphia 34, Chiefs 14. It actually wasn't that close.

Saints 27, Buffalo 7. Saints 10, Bills 7 at halftime. No score in the 3rd.

San Diego 23, Dolphins 13. Chad Pennington left the game in the first half with a dislocated right shoulder. But Phillip Rivers was hot anyway, going 18-33-0-303 with a rushing TD.

Cincinnati 23, Steelers 20. It was Steelers 20, Bengals 9 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Dallas 21, Panthers 7. It was scoreless until just before halftime, when the Panthers got a TD after a long drive.

the bad:

New York Jets 24, Titans 17. Kerry Collins completed just 41% of his passes, not counting the two he completed to the Jets.

Jaguars 31, Houston 24. Texans had the ball at the Jags 2 yard line with 2 minutes to go in the game and 2nd down and goal, but Chris Brown fumbled and the Jags recovered and ran out the clock.

Bears 25, Seattle 19. Jay Cutler 36 yards to Devin Hester for a TD with two minutes left won the game.

the ugly:

Packers 36, St. Louis 17. Why on earth did I pick the Rams?

Colts 31, Arizona 10. Peyton Manning threw three TD passes in the last 9 minutes of the 2nd quarter to stake the Colts to a 21-3 half time lead.

Brad's Picks is 33 - 15 on the season. NFC and AFC were 2-2 last week, so on the season it's NFC 6, AFC 4. Home teams 9, visitors 7 last week. Home teams are just 25-23 after three weeks. George is 1-0 after picking New England over the Falcons. Peter King should be so smart.

this week: the 11:00 MDT games: only 14 games this week, as the bye thing begins. Atlanta, Arizona, Carolina, and Philadelphia are off.

Detroit (1-2) at Chicago (2-1) - Division game. Kevin Smith averaged 6.3 yards per carry against the Redskins (101 on 16) but I don't think he'll do as well against the Bears, even though Hunter Hillenmeyer, who is replacing Brian Urlacher, left the Seattle game with a rib injury in 3rd. Rookie Matthew Stafford didn't throw any INT's last week (he was 21-36-0-241 and a TD toss) and the Bears still haven't gotten their run game going. But I'll still take the Bears. Should be a good divisional game though - the Lions are on a roll.

Oakland (1-2) at Houston (1-2) - Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell is being compared to Ryan Leaf, but the question is: is that fair to Leaf? Raiders did win in Houston last year 27-16. Houston's defense hasn't been good, but Oakland's offense hasn't been very good either, although the run game has been OK. Raiders' D was OK, and the Houston O has been also. Heck, take the home team, but this will be a strange game.

Tampa Bay (0-3) at Washington (1-2) - Bucs are just pretty bad. Their once proud D is the worst in the league. They've announced that they are benching QB Byron Leftwich and will go with second year QB Josh Johnson, a fifth round pick out of San Diego. Rookie Josh Freeman (first round pick out of K State) will be his backup. Redskins aren't real good either but they're better than the Bucs.

Seattle (1-2) at Undiepoolis (3-0) - I thought the Colts' D might be tired last week in Arizona after 45 minutes on the field in Miami the week before, but they were all over Kurt Warner. Now they're home (wherever the place is) and the Colts will beat the Seahawks, who are down to their third string left tackle, with Seneca Wallace at QB. It's early in the season, but I'll say it - don't be surprised if we see an all-Manning Super Bowl in February.

New York Giants (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3) - Giants only allowed the Bucs to gain a total of 86 yards last week. I know the Bucs aren't very good, but the Chiefs aren't either. This is the third straight road game for the Giants (Dallas and Tampa) so the game might not be the blowout it would be if it meant anything and if it weren't way out west at Arrowhead..

Baltimore (3-0) at New England (2-1) - Fred Taylor has been a tremendous free agent pickup for the Pats. After 11 years, the Jags let him walk in free agency, and he was instrumental last week with 105 yards in the win over the Falcons. But the Falcons don't have much D, and the Ravens do. Both of these teams are at the top of the charts stat wise. I was impressed with the Patriots win over the Falcons last week, taking the game over in the second half. but the Ravens are better than the Falcons. Toughest call of the week? George wants to call this one, after getting it right last week, taking the Pats over the Falcons. So here's George: and, George, after a serious flip, takes the Patriots. I agree with George (so does Peter King this week) because I think that Tom Brady has made it back, and if his receivers don't drop balls like they did last week (they won't dare to) the Patriots can eke out a win at home.

Cincinnati (2-1) at Cleveland (0-3) - Division game. Browns have replaced Brady Quinn with Derek Anderson. Anderson actually replaced Quinn midway through the game at Baltimore, and threw 3 INT's, but he gets the start this week. Bengals have beaten Green Bay and the Steelers since the home loss to the Broncos (on the Immaculate Deflection play). Browns are in total disarray, so take the Bengals here.

Tennessee (0-3) at Jacksonville (1-2) - Division game. Titans were 9th in the league in 08 in pass defense, but they gave up 676 passing yards in the first two games. They did much better in the rain in New York, allowing Mark Sanchez only 146. They lost big Albert Haynesworth and Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz (to the Lions), but Kerry Collins is just not very good this year. Titans were 13-3 last year (they lost by three in the playoffs to the Ravens) but that was 2008. I'm taking the Jags at home.

the 2:05 MDT games:

Buffalo (1-2) at Miami (0-3) - Division game. Chad Pennington is out for the season and maybe for his career, with a dislocated right shoulder (he's already had two surgeries on it, and here comes the third). Chad Henne, a second round pick in 08, out of Michigan, replaced Pennington and was 10-19-1-92 against the Chargers. His back up will be Pat White, 2nd round pick out of W Virginia, who has seen limited action as a wildcat QB.

Bills lost starting safety Donte Whitner with a broken thumb that will need surgery, and starting CB Leodis McKelvin with a broken bone in his leg (placed on IR). Even worse for the Bills, maybe, is the fact that Terrell Owens did not catch a pass against the Saints. That broke his 185 game streak of consecutive games with at least one catch. Is TO happy? I think not.

Dolphins lost LB Joey Porter in the second quarter last week in San Diego, and the Chargers scored 20 of their 23 points in the second half. Porter (hammy owie) is very iffy for this game. This is a tough call, but Henne did OK last week, and he's been getting all the snaps in practice and the Dolphins are all about the run game anyway.

New York Jets (3-0) at New Orleans (3-0) - Saints rushed for 222 yards against the Bills, even though they were without their best rusher, Mike Bell. Pierre Thomas came back from an injury and got 126 on 14. This should be a great game - Jets D under new head coach Rex Ryan is tops in the league, while the Saints O is tops in the league. They won't get 200 on the ground this week, but I'm going with the Saints O in this one, because they've been together longer and because they're at home.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Dallas (2-1) at Denver (3-0) - Dallas has the best run O in the league, but who have they played? Tampa and the Panthers, with a combined record of 0-6. Oh, and the 3-0 Giants. Broncos lead the league in total defense and points scored, but who have they played? Oakland and the Browns, with a combined record of 1-5. Oh, and the 2-1 Bengals (who have beaten the Packers and Steelers). So, what will give at Mile High this Sunday? Dallas will give. Their big fat O line will be sucking air by the third quarter, and Josh McDaniels is ten times the coach that Wade Phillips is. Broncos win this one, making it look easy by the 4th.

St. Louis (0-3) at San Francisco (2-1) - Division game. Niners RB Frank Gore will miss at least two weeks with an ankle owie. Glen Coffee, a rookie out of Alabama, looked good in pre season. Niners are smarting after a last second loss in Minnesota and will take it out on a division opponent that is a contender for the number one draft pick next year.

the SNF game:

San Diego (2-1) at Pittsburgh (1-2) - San Diego is 0-13 in Pittsburgh, including an 11-10 loss last November, and a 35-24 playoff loss in January. But Phillip Rivers has 739 yards passing the last two games. Pittsburgh's O line is struggling, just like last year, and their run game is hard to see, but Ben has a knack for big plays after the defense keeps them in it. I'll take the Steelers in what should be a very interesting game.

the MNF game:

Green Bay (2-1) at Minnesota (3-0) - Division game. Packers RB Ryan Grant got 99 yards on 26 carries last week - not too bad except it was against the Rams. Vikings were trailing by 4 with just seconds to go, and needed a miracle with the ball on the Niners 32. Brett Favre delivered the miracle, moving around to avoid the rush, then throwing a strike to Greg Lewis (who?) at the back of the end zone. It needed a replay to confirm that Lewis came down in-bounds, but miracles happen. The ESPN crew will go nuts about Favre vs. the Packers, and it does make for an interesting show. But it should also be a good game. Packers O line has been struggling, and the Vikings D is very good. I expect some scoring and a fairly close game. But take the home team.

Are you ready for Broncos/Raiders

bradley — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 14:43:48 -0000

Are you ready for Broncos/Raiders

Samuel L. Jackson gets you ready if you're not already.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Three - 2009

bradley — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:15:45 -0000

Brad's Picks was 10-6 last week. Here's the good, the bad and the ugly from that:

the good:

Denver 27, Browns 6. Halftime score was 10-6 Denver.

Vikings 27, Detroit 13. First downs - Vikes 18, Detroit 17. Each had 265 net yards. Detroit tossed two INT's, Vikes tossed none.

Atlanta 28, Panthers 20. Jake Delhomme looked much better than the last two games, but the home team won. Pretty close all the way around.

Washington 9, Rams 7. One FG in the 3rd (by the Reds); no scoring in the 4th.

New York Jets 16, Patriots 9. Three field goals apiece, plus a touchdown by the Jets on a nine yard TD toss by Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez.

Raiders 13, Kansas City 10. This game was painful to watch until the last three minutes when both teams woke up and scored a touchdown.

Saints 48, Philadelphia 22. Kevin Kolb wasn't that bad in relief of Donovan McNabb - 31 of 51 for 395 yards and two TD tosses. But, 3 INT's. And Drew Brees was better - not as many yards, but just one INT.

San Francisco 23, Seahawks 10. Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck left the game late in the first half with a broken rib, but that's not why they lost the game. Two long TD runs by Frank Gore (79 and 80) is why the Seahawks lost the game.

Ravens 31, San Diego 26. Tough, hard fought game, the outcome in doubt until the last minute.

Giants 33, Dallas 31. Seven lead changes and a last minute FG by the Giants ruined the 'Boys grand opening of their mega-dome. 3 INT's by Tony Romo didn't help.

the bad:

Texans 34, Tennessee 31. First downs and total net yards were about even, but the Titans turned it over twice.

Chicago 17, Steelers 14. Steelers up 14-7 at the end of three, but Jay Cutler led the Bears to a FG and a TD in the 4th. Two missed FG's by the Steelers didn't help their cause.

Bengals 31, Green Bay 24. If Carson Palmer hadn't thrown two INT's (one brought back for seven), the loss by the Packers might have been a lot worse. Bengals got 151 on the ground, Packers got just 89.

Colts 27, Miami 23. On MNF. If you think time of possession is a big indicator of who wins, think again. Fins had the ball for 45 minutes, Colts 15.

the ugly:

Buffalo 33, Buccaneers 20. Two INT's by the Bills, one returned for 7, made the difference in a game without much defense.

Cardinals 31, Jacksonville 17. Kurt Warner was 24-26-0-243, after going 26-44-2-288 in week one against the Niners.

Brad's Picks is 22-10 on the season. NFC and AFC both won two inter-conference games. On the season, it's NFC 4, AFC 2. Home teams were just 7-9 last week. On the season, home teams are 16-16.

the 11:00 MDT games:

Washington (1-1) at Detroit (0-2) - Lions held Vikings RB Adrian Peterson to just 92 yards last week. Not bad, when you consider that Matt Birk (former Vikings Center, now with the Ravens) says that Peterson could be the first RB to gain 3,000 yards in a season. Redskins looked pretty abysmal last week at home against the Rams. Lions got 129 ground yards against the Vikings last week. Redskins' D is pretty good but not as good as the Vikes. I just gotta take the Lions here - they can't keep losing forever.

Tennessee (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0) - Tennessee started 10-0 in 08, and then they lost at home to the Jets, 34-13. Now they are 0-2. New D coordinator Chuck Cecil might be getting some heat, but he's been with the team since 2001 so maybe it's not his fault. And beside, the two losses have both been by just 3 points, one in OT (Steelers). Speedy RB Chris Johnson ran for 197 yards on just 16 carries against the Texans. One run was for 91 yards and a TD. Take that one away and he still averaged 7 yards per carry. Hard call, but Jeff Fisher usually gets his team up for the tough ones, and quick and fast Chris Johnson may be just the antidote to the Jets' aggressive defense. Taking the Titans here.

Green Bay (1-1) at St. Louis (0-2) - Packers O line is not holding up - Aaron Rogers was sacked 6 times by the Bengals, and 4 times the week before by the Bears. Packers also have serious issues at safety. One starter is out for awhile, and they just cut the backup so they could sign a guy that was cut by the Colts earlier (Colts cut the guy so they could sign a guy who had been cut by the Cardinals). Anyway, Packers have problems at safety. Rams RB Stephen Jackson is averaging over 5 yards per carry. I'm taking the Rams at home for no good reason.

Cleveland (0-2) at Baltimore (2-0) - Division game. Browns lost both games to the Ravens last year, by 18 at Baltimore and by 10 at home. Both teams had to go west last week, Browns to Denver, Ravens to San Diego. Ravens won a tough one, Browns got clubbed at Mile High. I'm taking Baltimore. So is everyone else.

San Francisco (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0) - Frank Gore (207 yards on 16 carries last week) vs. Adrian Peterson (92 on 15). On the season, though, it's Gore with 237 on 22 and Peterson with 272 on 40. So, if you like the run game, watch this one, although Frank Gore is questionable with an ankle sprain. Vikings had the best run D in the league last year, but they gave up 129 on the ground to Detroit last week. Brett Favre has been dinking and dunking (37 of 48 for 265 yards) and I think he's going to have to make a few long plays this week. He's had enough time to get ready for it, and I think Minnesota wins this in a fairly high scoring, but close, game. 24-21?

Jacksonville (0-2) at Houston (1-1) - Division game. Houston got stomped by the Jets in Week One, but came back to win a brawl in Tennessee. Jags lost a tough opener at Undy then got whupped at home by a red hot Kurt Warner and his Cardinals. Jags are starting a pair of rookie tackles, and here comes Mario Williams. I'm taking Houston.

Atlanta (2-0) at New England (1-1) - Patriots have lost a lot of players, and Tom Brady hasn't looked as good as in 2007, after missing all of 2008, but he should get Wes Welker back this week. Atlanta's defense still isn't real good, but the offense is - young Matt Ryan is playing very well. I've been hemming and hawing here, so when in doubt take the home team. Patriots.

New York Giants (2-0) at Tampa Bay (0-2) - Bucs have given up over 330 yards per game the last seven games, and now they've lost a starting safety for the season. If the Giants have come back to earth after whupping the 'Boys in their Lollapalooza Dome on Sunday night, they should win this one.

Kansas City (0-2) at Philadelphia (1-1) - Donovan McNabb missed last week with his busted rib, but backup Kevin Kolb looked okay, despite his 3 INT's. We might see Michael Vick in for a few wildcat type plays, but I expect Kolb to do just fine against a poor Chiefs team - he won't feel like he has to match a high-octane offense point for point. Take the Eagles at home. Easy call.

the 2:05 MDT games:

Chicago (1-1) at Seattle (1-1) - Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck suffered a broken rib last week. They're saying he might play, but I don't believe it - Seneca Wallace will get the start. Julius Jones has averaged 4.7 for the Hawks on the ground, with a 62 yard TD run. Bears haven't been able to get Matt Forte going on the ground (just 2.2 yards per carry), but Jay Cutler had a solid performance last week against a good Steelers' D -27-38-0-236. Tough call - Cutler may keep it going and throw for a win, but I'm taking the Seahawks at home. The weather should be pretty nice.

New Orleans (2-0) at Buffalo (1-1) - Bills gave up 296 yards to Byron Leftwich last week, so what are they going to do about Drew Brees? And former Bronco Mike Bell is averaging 5 per carry on the ground. Saints showed they could play on the road last week in Philly.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Miami (0-2) at San Diego (1-1) - San Diego lost a tough one last week to the Ravens, and I don't think the Dolphins are as good as the Ravens. Plus, the Fins played on Monday night and now have to travel cross country. Taking the Chargers at home.

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cincinnati (1-1) - Division game. Steelers had to go to OT to beat the Titans in the opener, and then, even with three extra days, lost in Chicago to the Bears. Bengals lost at home in a close one, then went to Green Bay and won by seven, with their D all over Aaron Rogers. Steelers and Packers have this in common: their O lines aren't very good. Take the Bengals at home.

Denver (2-0) at Oakland (1-1) - Division game. Third division game for Oakland, first for the Broncos. Both teams are feeling some muscle, so all players better have their chin straps secured. Kyle Orton has played a good, safe game while recovering from a bad injury to his right finger. I think he'll be able to do a little more this week, and the Broncos D is feeling it. Brian Dawkins plays his first ever game at the Black Hole, and he's going to enjoy every minute. Taking the Broncos here.

the SNF game:

Undianapolis (2-0) at Arizona (1-1) - Second prime time, evening game in a row for the Colts, both on the road, at opposite ends of the country. Miami kept the Colts' D on the field for 45 minutes last Monday night, in the heat and humidity. If you watched it, you could see that the Colts defenders didn't just look tired, they looked ill (they still did a whale of a job). Will they be recovered when they get to Arizona? Forecast is for a high of 105 and a low of 79 on Sunday, and the low will probably occur a couple hours after the game ends. Kurt Warner was on fire last week in Jacksonville, setting an all-time NFL record with a 92.3% completion rate (24 of 26 with no INT's). How old is this guy? Peyton Manning was also on fire in Miami - he could not be stopped. Gotta take the home team Cardinals to beat a tired Colts defense. Look for scoring though - if the Colts D had to work hard last week, the O hardly broke a sweat.

the MNF game:

Carolina (0-2) at Dallas (1-1) - 'Boys had to endure a last minute loss to the Giants last week in their really, really, really big new dome. I think the 'Boys were more nervous about it than the Giants. Anyway, it was a real close game, and Tony Romo threw a bunch of INT's and I don't think he'll do that again and I also don't think the Panthers are as good as the Giants so I'm taking the 'Boys here.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Two - 2009

bradley — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 20:10:42 -0000

Brad's Picks was 12-4 last week. Here's the good, the bad and the ugly from that:

the good:

Broncos won in Cincinnati 12-7 on Brandon Stokely's heads up last minute touchdown.

Atlanta beat the Dolphins 19-7 as Miami turned it over 4 times.

New Orleans outscored the Lions 45-27. Drew Brees threw 6 TD passes - a first in NFL history on opening day, and former Bronco Mike Bell gained 143 yards on 28 carries.

Baltimore outscored the Chiefs 38-24. Are the Chiefs better than advertised? (Ravens were 13-6 in 08, Chiefs were 2-14).

Cowboys 34, Tampa Bay 21.

Vikings 34, Cleveland 20, even though Brett Favre was sacked 4 times.

Undeepolis 14, Jaguars 12.

Seattle 28, Rams 0 (the only shutout of the week).

New York Giants 23, Redskins 17. Reds got a TD on a fake FG late in the 1st half.

49ers 20, Arizona 16.

Green Bay 21, Bears 15. Bears new wunderkind QB, Jay Cutler, threw it to Packers 6 times (two were dropped by the Packers) and Jay finished with a QB rating of about 43.

Chargers 24, Oakland 20.

the bad:

Pittsburgh 13, Titans 10 in OT. Good hard fought game to kick off the season on Thursday night.

New England 25, Bills 24. A very tough game. Patriots scored two TD's in the final two minutes - the second after a Bills fumble on the kickoff. Both teams lost a starting linebacker for several weeks.

the ugly:

Eagles 38, Carolina 10.

Jets 24, Houston 7. Texans were 16-8 at home the last 3 years. So what's with the Jets?

Home teams were just 9-7 in Week One.

NFC 2, AFC 0 in Week One.

the 11:00 MDT games:

Houston (0-1) at Tennessee (0-1) - Division game. Texans got beat up by the re-vamped defense of the Jets, which has been installed by new head coach Rex Ryan, the former defensive coordinator for Baltimore. Texans were a pre-season pick to go far this year, but Tennessee has a great defense too, and they've had an extra three days to get ready after taking the Steelers to OT.

Minnesota (1-0) at Detroit (0-1) - Division game. Lions' rookie QB Matthew Stafford threw three INT's last week in New Orleans, a team not known for it's defense. Vikings are known for defense. Bret Favre took it easy last week in Cleveland and let Adrian Peterson do the work on offense. Look for more of the same this week.

Carolina (0-1) at Atlanta (1-0) - Division game. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme has turned the ball over 11 times in his last two games. Jake can be hot and cold but you can't count on him being hot this week. Falcons took care of business last week against a team that was 11-5 in 08. I'll take the Falcons.

St. Louis (0-1) at Washington (0-1) - Washington played a close game at the Giants last week. Rams got shut out in Seattle. Two long road trips in a row for the Rams. I'm taking Washington.

New England (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0) - Division game. Should be a good game. Jets shocked a lot of people by roughing up Houston last week, while the Patriots barely got past the Bills, and needed a last minute fumble by a Bill to get the winning TD. Jets have been talking a lot of smack this week, something I guess we can expect from a Rex Ryan team, at least as long as they can back it up. Patriots have five or six new starters on defense this year, and it showed against the Bills. I'm taking the Jets.

Oakland (0-1) at Kansas City (0-1) - Division game. Both teams played better than many expected last week, Chiefs losing 38-24 at Baltimore, and Oakland losing 24-20 to the Chargers. Raiders played on Monday night and are now on the road but they've won their last two games at Arrowhead. Chiefs have new coaches and they got 7 on a blocked punt last week in Baltimore, to make the score look better than it was, and I'm gonna take the Raiders but I won't put more than a nickel on it. Maybe a dime.

Cincinnati (0-1) at Green Bay (1-0) - Green Bay needed 4 INT's from Cutler to win by six over the Bears last week. Bengals were held to 3.2 per carry against the Broncos, and Carson Palmer was intercepted twice. Bengals think they should have won the game (they had the lead with 28 seconds to go), so they will arrive at Lambeau with a chip on their shoulder. I expect a tough, hard game, but I also expect the Packers to win at home.

New Orleans (1-0) at Philadelphia (1-0) - Donovan McNabb cracked a rib or two last week in the win at Carolina and it's very doubtful he'll play. Eagles signed Jeff Garcia, who played in Philly a few years ago, and did well, but 3rd year QB Kevin Kolb, a 2nd round pick out of Houston in 07, will get the start. Kolb has a QB rating of about 25 in his career (he was 7 of 11 with no INT's last week in relief of McNabb - but that's the good news. The bad news is that all that effort netted just 23 yards). But he's had all week to practice with the A Team. Drew Brees had 6 TD tosses last week, a record for any NFL QB on opening day. That was against the Lions though. If McNabb could play, I'd take the Eagles. But I'll take the Saints, after going back and forth on this one. The Eagles, even without McNabb, are a tough team, especially at home.

Arizona (0-1) at Jacksonville (0-1) - David Garrard was good last week at the Unplace Dome, going 14-28-0-122, which is about all Jack Del Rio asks of him. Maurice Jones-Drew had 97 on 21 carries. Cardinals did not look in sync last week against the Niners, and they were terrible on the east coast last year (except for the playoff game at Carolina, but Jake Delhomme made them a birthday present of five turnovers that day) so I'm taking the Jaguars at home.

the 2:05 MDT games:

Tampa Bay (0-1) at Buffalo (0-1) - The first ever game in Buffalo for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So, they are undefeated in Buffalo. You heard it here first. But the Bills have a great home record in September. But, Terrell Owens didn't see many balls come his way last week against the Patriots, and he's already starting in on the QB: "Trent [Edwards] has to better assess what he's seeing out there and take some shots down the field." Bucs lost at home to the 'Boys last week by 13 in a turnover-free game, even though Cadillac Williams has returned from his knee injuries (97 yards on just 13 carries and one TD). Byron Leftwich was a decent 25-41-0-276, and one TD toss, last week but it looks like they ran into a happy Tony Romo - happy to be rid of Owens, (and maybe his ex-girl friend Jessica Simpson) - Romo tossed 3 long TD tosses. Anyway, I'll take the Bucs to remain undefeated in Buffalo. But I got no money on it.

Seattle (1-0) at San Francisco (1-0) - Division game. Mike Singletary has his team playing hardball. Seahawks want to regain command of the NFC West. I'm taking the Niners.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Pittsburgh (1-0) at Chicago (0-1) - Steelers lost all-pro safety Troy Polamalu for a few weeks and the Bears lost all-pro LB Brian Urlacher for the season, and they also lost starting LB Pisa Tinoisama for a few weeks. This will be an interesting game. Steelers have shown they have no running game (36 yards on 23 carries last week against the Titans). But the Titans D is very good, and the Bears D was until losing the LB's, so maybe the Steelers can get a few yards on the ground. The Bears have major problems at QB, where Golden Boy Jay Cutler is already hearing the boo birds after throwing 4 to Packers last week (6 if you count the two the Packers dropped). I'm expecting Cutler to be a little more under control here, utilizing Matt Forte more, and his tight ends, but I'll go with the Steelers because they only lost one starter on D . And Ben Roethlisberger knows how to win games - Cutler has yet to learn how.

Baltimore (1-0) at San Diego (1-0) - Chargers had to play on the road on MNF, but the game was just up the road at Oakland. Maybe it'll even out the long plane ride the Ravens have to take. But the Chargers' injury list is long, including RB LaDainian Tomlinson and Center Nick Hardwick and DE Travis Johnson, who will not play. Tough call, but I'll take the Ravens on the road.

Cleveland (0-1) at Denver (1-0) - Denver is 36-12-1 in season openers at Mile High, and 19-0 lately. Broncos are also 9-0 against the Browns lately. How much more info do you need to go with the Broncos at Mile High? In truth, it should be a good game. Both teams have new regimes, Josh McDaniels in Denver, Eric Mangini in Cleveland, and neither team really knows that much about itself yet.

the SNF game at 6:20 MDT:

New York Giants (1-0) at Dallas (1-0) - Division game. A Texas sized new stadium with a Texas sized scoreboard hovering over the playing field - low enough that punts often get hung up on it. But who cares about that? Tony Romo had a Texas sized game last week at Tampa, going 16-27-0-353 with three TD passes (of 42, 66, and 80 yards) and a QB rating of 140. Not bad. Does he miss Terrell Owens? I think not. Romo is 4-0 against the Giants lately, but Dallas gave up 97 yards on just 13 carries to Cadillac Williams last week at Tampa. And here come the Giants and their good run game. This will be a good game, and a fun game, on SNF. Bet it gets a great TV audience. I'm hoping the Giants can deflate the huge scoreboeard. They'll need to play tough and hang around.

the MNF game:

Undianapolis (1-0) at Miami (0-1) - Miami came from nowhere last year, finishing 11-5 and winning the AFC East, after a 1-15 season in 07. Dolphins used the Wildcat formation with success in 08, but against the Falcons last week, they gained just 4 yards on 3 Tabbycat plays. 4 turnovers didn't help the Fins either. Colts held off the Jags (by just two points) at their Unplace Dome but the Jags were helped by two Colts' turnovers. Colts lost wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez for a month or maybe two. Jags rushed for 114 on 26 carries last week at the Unplace, while the Colts got just 71 on 31. Dolphins should be able to limit their turnovers and get the run game going at home on MNF.

Brad's NFL Picks - 2009

bradley — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:59:35 -0000

Brad's NFL Picks is back for it's 9th season (second season posting to MHR). Once again we'll keep track of the home team vs. visitor record (146-109-1 in 08 in the regular season, 5-5 in the playoffs), and the NFC vs AFC record (32-32 in 07, AFC 34, NFC 30 in 08). Brad's NFL Picks was 168-97-1 through the Super Bowl last season.

So here we go - 32 winless teams get to play with real bullets this weekend - Titans and Steelers get to start the shooting tonight. (Last season's record in parentheses).

the Thursday night game:

Tennessee (13-3, 0-1 in the playoffs) at Pittsburgh (12-4, 3-0 in the playoffs) - 6:30 MDT. NBC. Titans won the tough AFC South last year with a 13-3 record (best in the NFL), but, alas, lost to the Ravens 13-10 in the playoffs. The T's think they have improved their passing game, which wasn't very good last year, and hope to do better than last season.

Neither team made whole sale changes in the off season, except the T's let DT Albert Haynesworth leave as a free agent. Steelers relied on defense last year, and didn't do a whole lot to improve a porous O line. These two teams met in Week 16 in Tennessee and the Steelers got pasted, 31-14. Steelers had beaten Baltimore the week before, thereby clinching the AFC North, so maybe they didn't care, but you'd think they would have wanted to win the game for the home field advantage thing. But maybe the Ravens had just tired them out. Titans think they have a good replacement for Haynesworth in Jason Jones, who filled in well for Fat Albert late last season. Titans RB's are speedy, and very good, Chris Johnson, and LenDale White, who should be motivated by his contract year. Steelers ILB Lawrence Timmons will miss the game, and I'm taking the Titans, even though everyone else is taking the Steelers.

the 11:00 Sunday games:

Jacksonville (5-11) at Indeewaplis (12-4; 0-1) - Division game. Jags for years have thought they were close to taking over from the Colts in the AFC South, but after a 5-11 season, they need to rethink that. 15 players on IR last year will help cause a losing season, but the Jags made a lot of changes anyway. Colts have a lot of changes also, as Coach Tony Dungy retired. New Head Coach Jim Caldwell has been with Dungy for 6 years, so the Colts are hoping for a smooth transition. Jags' QB David Garrard was either sacked or knocked to the ground 110 times last year. Take the Colts at their oil drum, which is located somewhere in the same universe that the rest of us are.

Detroit (0-16) at New Orleans (8-8) - Detroit went defeated last year, while the Saints were 8-8. Detroit has a new GM, a new head coach, a new rookie QB (Matthew Stafford, out of Georgia) and a new logo (it's still a blue lion, but it looks tougher). Stafford will start for the Lions, but the Saints are a better team than their 8-8 record in 08. RB's Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are banged up, but I expect a big game from former Bronco Mike Bell. QB Drew Brees is one of the best.

Philadelphia (9-6-1; 2-1) at Carolina (12-4; 0-1) - Eagles were 9-6-1 (remember when Donovan McNabb was astonished after the tie game at Cincinnati when he learned that an NFL regular season game could actually end in a tie?) but they made the playoffs and won at Minnesota (26-14) and at the Giants (23-11) before losing at Arizona 32-25. Carolina was 12-4 but lost to the Cardinals in the playoffs 33-13 when QB Jake Delhomme threw 5 interceptions and also lost a fumble (hey, it was the day after his birthday - give the man a break).

Coach Fox of the Panthers likes to run the ball (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) and have Delhomme throw it occasionally to Steve Smith, one of the best receivers in the game. Their really good O line helps a lot.

Eagles made some noise in the off season by signing QB Michael Vick, recently released from prison for torturing animals. He won't play at all the first two games, and even then will back up Donovan McNabb. Anyway, Coach Andy Reid made a lot of changes in the off season (he let all-pro safety Brian Dawkins go to the Broncos) even though the team made it to the NFC Championship game. I think the Eagles' defense will take some time to adjust to playing without Brian Dawkins (their leader for the last 13 years, and he's being replaced by a rookie), and the Eagles also have to adjust to the loss of D Coordinator Jim Johnson, so I'm taking Carolina at home.

Dallas (9-7) at Tampa Bay (9-7) - 'Boys retained Wade Phillips as head coach even though they missed the playoffs, while getting rid of Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, Tank Johnson, and safety Roy Williams. Tony Romo is the QB, Marion Barber is the RB, and Roy Williams, who arrived from the Lions last midseason, is the receiver. That's about all I know about the Cowboys. Oh, they have a new, 1.1billion dollar stadium, but that's for next week when the Giants come to Dallas.

Bucs were also 9-7 last year, but have a new GM and a new head coach in Raheem Morris, the youngest coach in the NFL (he'll turn 33 this Sunday). Morris was the DB coach for the Bucs last year, but when Monte Kiffin left the Bucs for the University of Tennessee, Morris was named Defensive Coordinator. But then, when Jon Gruden was fired, Morris was named head coach. Bucs picked up the much travelled Byron Leftwich, who will probably be the starting QB. I'm taking the Cowboys here - too many changes in Tampa.

New York Jets (9-7) at Houston (8-8) - Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan (former defensive coordinator of the Ravens) and a new QB in Mark Sanchez, a rookie from USC. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak is in his 4th year, and expectations are high. They have Matt Schaub at QB and Andre Johnson at wide. Texans started 0-4 last year, at least partly due to the disruption caused by Hurricane Ike, that blew up their stadium and caused game number two against the Ravens to be postponed. But the Texans finished 8-8 and hopes are high for this season. Sanchez showed some ability in the pre-season, but the game is about to speed up for him. I'm taking the Texans at home.

Kansas City (2-14) at Baltimore (11-5; 2-1) - Chiefs were 2-14 last year, and have a new head coach, who fired his O coordinator a couple weeks ago. Ravens were a playoff team last year with rookie QB Joe Flacco. Chiefs O line is not good - Ravens D line is very good. This is a no-brainer. Ravens win at home.

Denver (8-8) at Cincinnati (4-11-1) - Broncos had the big off season, with the firing of head coach Mike Shanahan and the hiring of the young Josh McDaniels, the O coordinator of the Patriots. The Broncos shipped QB Jay Cutler and a fifth round pick to the Bears for QB Kyle Orton, two first round picks and a third. This all happened after Cutler behaved like a three year old after Shanahan was fired and essentially accused owner Pat Bowlen of lying (Cutler said he'd never received Bowlen's phone calls - Bowlen said he had the phone records). Anyway, McDaniels has made huge changes in the Broncos. New D coordinator Mike Nolan has switched the D from the old 4-3 to a 3-4, or is it a 5-2? Anyway, the Bronco D has shown some aggression in the preseason, a huge change from the last few years. Brian Dawkins joined the team in the off season after thirteen years with the Eagles - talk about aggression! On O, the Broncos will provide many different looks from week to week. But the question this week is are they ready for a Bengals team that thinks it can go to the playoffs?

Bengals D was 12th in the league last year, and they think they have improved. On O, they have a healthy Carson Palmer back at QB (he missed most of last year), and good receivers in Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry, both of whom have had attitude problems in the past, but who seem to have seen the light. This is a tough call, so when in doubt, go with the visiting team, right? I'm taking the Broncos, who will win if the D gets after Palmer early (and it will).

Minnesota (10-6; 0-1) at Cleveland (4-12) - Bret Favre has un-retired yet again, and is now a Viking. He just joined the team a couple weeks ago, but will start. He'll do well enough so that the Vikings should be able to beat the Browns behind RB Adrian Peterson, maybe the best player in the NFL, and a great Vikings defense. Cleveland is still getting things together with a new head coach, Eric Mangini, who used to be the head coach of the Jets.

Miami (11-5; 0-1)) at Atlanta (11-5; 0-1) - Two of the surprise teams last year. Miami was 1-15 in 07 but finished 11-5 in 08, good enough to win the AFC East (they lost to the Ravens 27-9 in the playoffs). A new coach (Tony Sparano), a new boss man in Bill Parcells, a new QB in Chad Pennington (released by the Jets after they signed Bret Favre) and a rejuvenated LB Joey Porter led the charge.

Atlanta was 4-12 in 07, suffering through the ugliness of Michael Vick and his torturing of animals, and also the desertion of rookie Head Coach Bobby Petrino after 13 games. But the sun came out in 08. Behind sensational rookie QB Matt Ryan and the running of Michael Turner, Falcons fans were able to forget 07.

Can the Falcons have another winning year? History says no - the Falcons have never had back to back winning seasons. And they play in the up and down NFC South. But can they beat the Dolphins this Sunday? Sure they can. "On any given Sunday..." I'm taking the Falcons at home. Should be a good game.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Washington (8-8) at New York Giants (12-4; 0-1) - Division game. A repeat of last year's opener - Reds at the Meadowlands. Last year the Reds lost 16-7. Reds went on to win the next 4, but then went 4-7 to finish at 8-8, in head coach Jim Zorn's first year. QB Jason Campbell is in his 5th year, and has never had stability in his coaches. It's a contract year for Campbell, and I gotta hope for him - nice guy. Clinton Portis is the RB (and LaDell Betts). Giants had a good year before being bounced from the playoffs by the Eagles, and should be back with their good D. Giants' receivers are a question, but I'll pick the Giants to win this one.

San Francisco (7-9) at Arizona (9-7; 3-1) - Division game. Mike Singletary took over as head coach in mid - season last year, and the team won five of its last seven. Singletary has the Niners playing with passion and toughness, like he did as a linebacker for the Bears. Cardinals had a Cinderella year, going to the Super Bowl, which they might have won if not for the errant toss by Kurt Warner at the end of the first half which was returned 99 yards for a TD (Cards lost the game by 4 points). Cardinals have looked sluggish in pre season, and I'm thinking the Niners are going to hurt them.

St. Louis (2-14) at Seattle (4-12) - Division game. Rams have a new head coach in Steve Spagnuolo, who was the Giants' D coordinator the last few years. But despite a lousy Rams' record last year, Spagnuolo has made few changes. Seattle has a new head coach also, Jim Mora, but he was with the team last year and was already anointed as the replacement for Mike Holmgren, who had announced his retirement. Neither team excites me, but St. Louis excites me the less, and I'll take the Seahawks at home.

the SNF game:

Chicago (9-7) at Green Bay (6-10) - Division game. Packers weren't so hot in Aaron Rogers first season as the replacement for Bret Favre, but it wasn't Rogers' fault. He had a very good year (over 4,000 yards passing), and got a contract extension as a result. Packers lost seven games by 4 points or less, two of them in OT. They are switching to a 3-4 defense (the hot thing this year), but Dom Capers seems to have them doing it nicely. Green Bay was 13-3 in 07, could have been about the same last year but for the close games, and the Pack is my early favorite to win the NFC.

Chicago is pumped about their new QB Jay Cutler. They haven't had a standout QB since Jim McMahon in the 80's. But their O line isn't so good, their receivers aren't great (except for the tight ends) and the defense is aging a bit. Matt Forte had a very good year as a rookie RB, especially as a receiver. Packers counter with Ryan Grant. Anyway, I'd be a fool to not take the Packers at Lambeau. This will be a fun game to watch.

the MNF games:

at 5:00 MDT on ESPN:

Buffalo (7-9) at New England (11-5) - Division game. Patriots get Tom Brady back from his busted leg (suffered in last season's opener) but they have made major changes on their defense. They're going to have six or so new starters on D. Meanwhile, the Bills signed Terrell Owens, who will not start pouting this early in the season, so I'm taking the Bills here (everyone else is taking the Patriots), even though they will be without starting RB Marshawn Lynch, who is serving a three game league imposed suspension. But the Bills released stalwart RB Dominic Rhodes, so they must feel good about their other RB's - Fred Jackson ran for 136 against the Pats in Week 17 last year (a 10-0 loss for the Bills).

at 8:15 MDT on ESPN:

San Diego (8-8) at Oakland (5-11) - Division game. Chargers were 8-8 last year, Raiders were 5-11 (0-2 vs the Chargers). You gotta take the Chargers here, even though they traditionally start slow and even though it's in Oakland. Rivers is a much better QB than Russell, and the Chargers get LB Shawne Merriman back after being out all last year with an injury. Merriman is what makes the Chargers D go.