SB Nation User Blog: bradley

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Thirteen - 2008

bradley — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 22:56:32 -0000

A very interesting week last week, as there were only two close games, and lots of blowouts. In week 11, there were 10 games decided by 6 or less. In Week 12, the Colts won at San Diego by three and the Reds won at Seattle by three, but the next closest game was by ten.

Brad's Picks was a dismal 7-9 last week, prescient only when Pittsburgh beat the Bengals 27-10 on TNF; when the Bears beat St. Louis 27-3; when Dallas beat the Niners 35-22; when Baltimore beat the Eagles 36-7; when Atlanta beat the Panthers 45-28; when the Redskins won in Seattle 20-17; and when the Giants beat Arizona 37-29.

Brad's Picks was wrong when Denver got routed by the Raiders 31-10; when the Jets routed Tennessee 34-13; when the Bucs overcame a 17-0 deficit to beat Detroit 38-20; when the Patriots whupped Miami 48-28; when the Bills routed Kansas City 54-31; when the Texans beat Cleveland 16-6; when the Vikings beat Jacksonville 30-12; when the Colts won 23-20 on a long FG as time expired in San Diego; and when New Orleans beat the Pack 51-29 on MNF.

Brad's Picks is 111-64-1 on the season.

Home teams were a dismal 5-11 last week. On the season, home teams are 100-75-1. Home teams have won 57% of their games this year - last year, they won 54.7%.

As to coast to coast games, visitors were 2-0, as the Giants won in the desert, and the Reds won in Seattle. Visiting teams playing on the opposite coast are 8-19 on the year. All of the wins were by east coast teams going to the west coast.

George was a dismal 7-9 last week, and is 82-91-1 on the season.

NFC 1, AFC 1 last week. On the season, it's NFC 21, AFC 18.

Teams off a MNF game were 1-1 as the Bills won and Cleveland lost. Teams off a MNF game are 17-6 on the season.

the Turkey Day games:

the 10:30 MST game:

Tennessee (10-1) at Detroit (0-11) - I took Detroit vs. the Bucs last week, hoping for a Detroit win, just so they wouldn't have to join the old creamsicle Bucs as the only winless team in NFL history. That was probably the Lions' best chance at a win - the rest of the schedule is brutal. Take the Titans here. George likes the Titans also.

the 2:15 MST game:

Seattle (2-9) at Dallas (7-4) - Seattle lost at home last week to the Reds. I can't see them winning at Dallas. George will take the Hawks, however.

the 6:15 MST game:

Arizona (7-4) at Philadelphia (5-5-1) - This should be an interesting game, but most of us won't see it, since the nflhognetwork is only showing it to rich people. Eagles got totally whupped last week in Baltimore. Donovan McNabb had a QB rating of 13 by halftime, so Andy Reid benched him in favor of 2nd year QB Kolb, who was as bad as McNabb (they both threw two INT's). Correll Buckhalter is out, and Brian Westbrook is still limping. Eagles like to blitz, but Kurt Warner has been very successful against the blitz (71% completion rate, 10 TD's, 1 INT, and four sacks). I'd take the Cardinals in a heartbeat if this was in the desert, but no west coast team has won on the east coast this year. Here's hoping McNabb felt a fire when he got benched. Take the Eagles at home. George likes the Eagles.

the 11:00 MST Sunday games:

Baltimore (7-4) at Cincinnati (1-9-1) - Division game. Keep it simple, and take the Ravens. George likes Cincinnati.

Carolina (8-3) at Green Bay (5-6) - Both teams lost on the road last week. Panthers lost at Atlanta, but in the NFC South, the home team always wins (something like 19-2 lately). But this is at Lambeau. Weather should be in the mid thirties, with maybe a few snow flurries. I'll take the Packers. George likes the Packers too.

Ineeplas (7-4) at Cleveland (4-7) - Brady Quinn's three game tenure as starting QB for the Browns has ended - his broken finger has landed him on IR. So Derek Anderson regains his starting job. Colts have lost two O linemen, guard Ryan Lilja is gone for the season, and center Jeff Saturday is out for a few weeks. I'm picking Cleveland, hoping that Derek Anderson provides a boost. George likes the Browns also.

Miami (6-5) at St. Louis (2-9) - Oh, the Rams are just pathetic. Take the Dolphins. George likes the Rams.

New Orleans (6-5) at Tampa Bay (8-3) - Division game. NFC South game. Both teams are off impressive wins, but the Bucs did it on the road, and the home team in the NFC South always wins, or almost always, so I'll take the Bucs. George likes the Bucs.

New York Giants (10-1) at Washington (7-4) - Division game. Only a fool would not take the Giants here. Doesn't meant they'll win, just means you gotta pick them. George likes Washington.

San Francisco (3-8) at Buffalo (6-5) - Bills shook off a four game losing streak and thrashed the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week. Niners are about as good as the Chiefs. Plus, no west coast team has won on the east coast all year (but you knew that). George likes the Niners.

the 2:05 MST games:

Atlanta (7-4) at San Diego (4-7) - Tough call. Chargers are obviously not as good as advertised this year. They let FB Lorenzo Neal go in free agency, and lost LB Shawn Merriman to knee surgery. Both the run O and the pass D have suffered a lot since then. Chargers lost a close one to the Colts last week. Can the Falcons do the same? Says no, here, for a couple reasons. The Colts and the Chargers know each other, and the Falcons have a longer plane ride than the Colts. Plus, the Colts just barely won. I like the Falcons in their marvelous post Vick year, but I'm taking the Chargers at home. George likes the Chargers also.

the 2:15 MST games:

Denver (6-5) at New York Jets (8-3) - This game was moved to the afternoon (MST) slot because it looked like a good one. And it should be. If you like scoring, tune in. Neither team has much of a pass D, and here come Favre and Cutler. Broncos have been better on the road lately. Jets have a good run game with Thomas Jones (4.4 per) but the Broncos run O has been pretty good lately, with young Peyton Hillis getting it going. To keep it simple, I'll always take the Broncos unless I can't, and I can here. Broncos D is ranked a lot lower than the Jets, but it's been better lately. I gotta take the Broncos. But don't put your money on it. George likes the Broncos also.

Kansas City (1-10) at Oakland (3-8) - Division game. Raiders looked really good at Mile High last week, while the Chiefs got bounced at Arrowhead by the Bills. George likes the Chiefs.

Pittsburgh (8-3) at New England (7-4) - Steelers have even more injuries. They've won a lot of games in spite of a poor O line, but you gotta take New England at home. George likes the Patriots also.

the SNF game:

Chicago (6-5) at Minnesota (6-5) - Division game. Heck, who knows? Both teams won on the road last week, but Minnesota's win was more impressive. Bears' D hasn't been all that impressive lately, and here comes Adrian Peterson and his Vikings. George likes the Bears.

the MNF game:

Jacksonville (4-7) at Houston (4-7) - Division game. Jags seem down, Texans seem up. And the Texans have always played the Jags tough, and they are at home. George likes the Texans too.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Twelve - 2008

bradley — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 21:04:02 -0000

Interesting Week Eleven - lots of close games, including the first tie game since 2002. Also, a one pointer (Pittsburgh and Chargers, the first ever 11-10 game in NFL history); two two pointers; a three point OT game; a couple four pointers, and three six pointers..

Brad's NFL Picks was 12-3-1 last week, right when the the Jets won in New England on TNF 34-31 in OT; when the Broncos won in Atlanta 24-20; when Miami beat the Raiders (but only by two points) 17-15; when Green Bay whupped the Bears 37-3; when the New York Giants beat the Ravens 30-10; when Inplios beat the Texans 33-27; when Carolina held off the Lions 31-22; when Tampa beat the Vikings 19-13; when the Cardinals beat Seattle 26-20; when Pittsburgh beat the Chargers 11-10; when the Titans rallied to beat J'ville 24-14; and when the Cowboys beat Washington 14-10 on SNF.

Brad's Picks was wrong when the Saints won at Arrowhead 30-20; when the Rams fizzled at San Francisco and lost 35-16; and when the Browns beat Buffalo on MNF 29-27 (with a minute and a half or so to go, it was Buffalo 27, Browns 26. They then traded FG attempts - Browns' was good, Bills' was not).

And then there was the 13-13 tie between the Eagles and Cincinnati.

Brad's Picks is 104-55-1 on the season.

Home teams were 8-7-1 last week. Home teams are 95-64-1 on the season. Home teams have won 60% of the time this year, as compared with 54.7 % in 2007.

Coast to coast teams were 0-2 last week as the Chargers lost at Pittsburgh and the Raiders lost at Miami. Visiting teams playing on the opposite coast are 6-19 on the year.

George was 6-9-1 last week. George is 75-82-1 on the season.

NFC 2, AFC 1 last week. On the season it's NFC 20, AFC 17.

Teams off a bye were 2-2 last week, as Dallas and Tampa won, and Washington and Baltimore lost. Teams off a bye were 19-13 this year.

Teams off a MNF game were 2-0 last week, as both San Francisco and Arizona won. Teams off a MNF game are 16-5 on the season.

this week: the TNF game:

Cincinnati (1-8-1) at Pittsburgh (7-3) - Division game. Ben Roethlisberger has been getting sacked a lot lately, and has thrown a lot of picks lately, but the Steelers keep winning. Except for the loss to the Colts a couple weeks ago. Bengals have been playing hard, beating the Jags three weeks ago, 21-19, then a bye, then a tie with the Eagles last week. Bengals young QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was 29-44-0-261 and a TD pass - not bad against the Eagles D, especially when the run game was totally stalled (1.9 per carry). Steelers had a hard time putting the Chargers down last week, finally winning by a point (but you knew that). Bottom line is that the Steeler's D leads the league in run D, pass D, and total yards given up, and now we hear that the Bengals starting LT and LG are out. George takes the Steelers.

the Sunday 11:00 MST games:

New York Jets (7-3) at Tennessee (10-0) - Tough call here. You all know about the Titans' D, but the Jets D is about as good, and even better against the run, thanks to DT Kris Jenkins. Two old QB's go at it - Brett Favre and Kerry Collins. Weather should be pretty good for football - 50 degrees or so at kickoff. Both teams have great ground games - Thomas Jones is averaging 4.5 per for the Jets (after just 3.6 per last year) and LenDale White and Chris Johnson are both averaging over 4 per for the T's. This should be a really good game. Gotta go with the home Titans. George likes the Jets.

Tampa Bay (7-3) at Detroit (0-10) - Tampa had a hard time at home against the Vikings, while the Lions played tough at Carolina. Daunte Culpepper has another week under his belt as the Lions' QB. Bucs just put their best RB, Ernest Graham, on IR, but they still have Warrick Dunn and Carnell "Cadillac" Williams was activated last week, a year after tearing up his knee. He didn't get any carries last week, but maybe in Detroit. Kevin Smith gained 112 on 24 in Carolina last week, and Culpepper had a good game, but for two INT's. I'm thinking Detroit gets a win here. George likes the Bucs.

Chicago (5-5) at St. Louis (2-8) - Rams have lost OT Orlando Pace for four weeks, and RB Steven Jackson will miss his second straight game. Bears' previously vaunted run defense gave up 200 ground yards to the Pack last week. Bears QB Kyle Orton was 13-26-0-133 after missing a week, and he only completed two passes to a wide receiver. But the Rams are just what the Bear's doctor ordered (Brian Urlacher has been snarling all week.) George however likes the Rams.

New England (6-4) at Miami (6-4) - Division game. Dolphins shocked the Patriots 38-13 at New England in Week Three. But that was when the Wildcat formation on offense was a new trick. Matt Cassell has had half a season to get comfortable at QB for the Patriots. Ditto for Chad Pennington as QB for the Dolphins. These two teams are really even on D and O. No love lost here. Joey Porter is already calling out the Patriots. Weather should be decent - 60's with sun, maybe a few showers. Dolphins weather. Pats just lost rookie CB Wheatley and RB LaMont Jordan likely won't play. Taking the Dolphins at home. George likes the Dolphins.

San Francisco (3-7) at Dallas (6-4) - Niners had a huge win over the Rams last week, scoring 28 in the second quarter and none in the second half. Dallas had a huge win at Washington as Tony Romo came back from a broken finger. Take Dallas at home. George will take the Niners.

Buffalo (5-5) at Kansas City (1-9) - Bills have lost 4 in a row. Is QB Trent Edwards really recovered from his concussion? Bills fans seem to think the problem is rather that the Bills have been riding the young QB's shoulders too much, and the oppo has gotten after that. Chiefs young QB, Tyler Thigpen, has been playing quite well (19-38-1-235 and two TD's last week vs. the Saints in a 30-20 loss). Chiefs have a terrible run D so if the Bills can get Marshawn Lynch going, they should be able to eke out a win at Arrowhead. But it's a close call - Bills played on Monday night, and now have to travel to Arrowhead. Weather should be good. I took the Chiefs at home last week against the Saints, and got burned. I'll try again. Chiefs at Arrowhead. George likes the Bills.

Houston (3-7) at Cleveland ( 4-6) - Brady Quinn is now 1-1 as the Browns starting QB, after a loss to the Broncos, then a win on MNF at Buffalo. Texans lost 33-27 at Inawps last week. Their young RB, Steve Slaton, slashed the Colts D for 156 on just 14 - that included a 71 yarder for six. Take away the big run, and he still averaged 6.5 per carry. Sage Rosenfels is starting at QB as Matt Schaub is out indefinitely with a torn MCL. Rosenfels plays well, but can't seem to get a win. I guess I'll take the Browns at home, although Rosenfels isn't that bad, and Slaton gives them a good chance. George likes the Browns also.

Philadelphia (5-4-1) at Baltimore (6-4) - Here's a pathetic note for you: when the Eagles/Cincinnati game ended in a tie, most of the Eagles players were dumbfounded. They thought you just kept playing. Donovan McNabb, when informed that nope, it ends in a tie, expressed disbelief that a Super Bowl game, for example, could end in a tie. Talk about dumb. Anyway, it looks like Brian Westbrook has serious injury problems, and he's about half of the Eagle O, and I'll take the Ravens at home. Except for their loss to the Giants at the Meadowlands last week, they've been playing good, and they're at home. George takes the Eagles.

Minnesota (5-5) at Jacksonville (4-6) - Vikings second trip in a row to Florida. They played the Bucs tough last week, losing by 6. Jags played the Titans tough last week, but scored zero points in the second half in a 24-14 loss. I don't think the Jaguars will lose two in a row at home. George likes the Jags also.

the 2:05 MST game:

Oakland (2-8) at Denver (6-4) - Division game. Raiders played tough in Miami in a 17-15 loss last week, but it wasn't because of the offense. They did score two FG's, but the other points were off a 93 yard punt return and a safety. Raiders only gained 70 yards on the ground while giving up 222 on the ground. This call is a no brainer, as the Broncos have showed all kinds of life with young players stepping up. George likes the Broncos too.

the 2:15 MST games:

Carolina (8-2) at Atlanta (6-4) - Division game. Jake Delhomme was only 10-19-0-98 (with one TD toss) last week at home against the lowly Lions. But the Panthers ground game saved the day with 264 yards (8.3 per) in a 31-22 win. Falcons lost by four at home to the Broncos (the Falcons first home loss this year) as the Broncos played an inspired game. Both teams have great running games, Atlanta's the better. Panthers won 24-9 at home in Week Four, but the Falcons have improved more since then, especially rookie QB Matt Ryan. Falcons won't want to lose two in a row at home. George likes Atlanta.

Washington (6-4) at Seattle (2-8) - Seahawks got QB Matt Hasselbeck back last week, but they still lost at home to the Cardinals, 26-20. And Hasselbeck's back is still bothering him. I'm taking a good Redskins team despite the long plane ride. George likes Seattle.

New York Giants (9-1) at Arizona (7-3) - Really big game here. These two teams might meet again in the playoffs. It's another long plane ride, but the Cardinals don't have a run game, and they've been getting by on their really good pass game, but the Giants' pass rush is going to be a hurt for Kurt Warner. George likes the Giants.

the SNF game:

Inpiana (6-4) at San Diego (4-6) - Colts are on a roll. Chargers are talking about giving Coach Norv Turner a vote of confidence. LaDainian Tomlinson is angry, and the Colts have no run D. Should be a shootout, but I'm taking the Chargers at home. George likes the Colts.

the MNF game:

Green Bay (5-5) at New Orleans (5-5) - Saints lost good young CB Troy Porter a few weeks ago, and now they've lost CB Mike McKenzie for the year. Packers are playing very good. Neither team has that much on D, so tune in and watch some scoring. I'll take the Packers. George likes the Packers.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Eleven - 2008

bradley — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 23:10:46 -0000

Brad's Picks was 9-5 last week, right when the Broncos beat Cleveland 34-30; when Miami beat the Seahawks 21-19; when the New York Jets whupped the Rams 47-3; when the Jags beat Detroit 38-14; when New England beat the Bills 20-10; when the Panthers won in Oakland 17-6; when San Diego barely beat the Chiefs 20-19; when the Giants beat Philadelphia 36-31; and when Arizona beat the Forty Niners 29-24 on MNF.

Brad's Picks was wrong when the Titans beat Chicago 21-14; when Minnesota squeezed past the Packers 28-27; when the Ravens humiliated Houston 41-13; when Atlanta beat the Saints 34-20; and when the Colts beat Pittsburgh 24-20.

Brad's Picks is 92-52 on the year.

Home teams were 7-7 last week, and are 87-57 on the year (60%). Home teams won 54.7 % of the time in 2007.

Coast to coast teams were 1-1 last week as the Seahawks lost in Miami and the Panthers won in Oakland. Visiting teams are 6-17 on the season and all six wins are by east coast teams playing on the west coast.

George was 8-6 for the second week in a row. George is 69-73 on the season.

AFC 4, NFC 1 last week. On the season, it's NFC 18, AFC 16.

Teams coming off a bye last week were 2-2. On the season they are 17-11.

Teams coming off MNF were 0-1 as the Steelers lost and the Redskins were idle. Teams coming off MNF are 14-5 on the season.

Off last week with a bye were Dallas, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore. Say bye to byes.

this week: the Thursday night game:

New York Jets (6-3) at New England (6-3) - Division game. Hard game to call. Brett Favre gets his second chance to go against the Patriots - Jets lost in Week Two at home 19-10. The teams are about equal in D and O, ditto points scored and points given up. It seems the Patriots have been hit harder by injuries lately - RB's Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan are iffy (they have a nifty rookie in BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and they still have Kevin Faulk) and LB Adalius Thomas just had surgery on his arm. Weather will be windy and rainy. I'll take Brett (he's had six more games to get used to his new team) and the Jets. George likes the Jets also.

the 11:00 MST Sunday games:

Denver (5-4) at Atlanta (6-3) - Falcons lead the league in rushing, and the Broncos have been terrible stopping the run, although they've shown some signs of life lately. Falcons D is not very good, and the Broncos pass O was terrific last week in Cleveland. Broncos have been decimated by RB injuries and will start a rookie fullback, Peyton Hillis, at RB. Hillis averaged over 5 per carry at Arkansas when he got the ball. But you gotta take the Falcons in their home dome, don't you?. Also, it's the second trip east in two weeks for the Broncos. But I guess I'll take the Broncos. They've had three extra days to get ready, they played good on the road last week in Clevleand, and I'm expecting a big game from Peyton Hillis, the converted fullback. Hillis played tough last week, and he's had a week of practice at the RB spot. Broncos also signed Tatum Bell, who they shipped off to Detroit a couple years ago, and elevated rookie P.J. Pope from the practice squad, after placing two more RB's on IR for the year.This should be a high scoring game, but if Hillis can get it going and the Broncos get a lead, it will help to neutralize the Falcons' top notch run game. I'm counting on Hillis. George likes the Broncos.

Oakland (2-7) at Miami (5-4) - Miami had a hard time beating another west coast team last week, but the Seahawks are better than the Raiders. And no west coast team has won a game on the east coast this year. George likes the Raiders.

Chicago (5-4) at Green Bay (4-5) - Division game. Both teams lost last week Both teams are bunched up with Minnesota for the Division lead. Both teams played very hard in the loss last week. Bears had to go with Rex Grossman at QB, and he did sort of OK (20-37-1-173 and two TD's, one a one yard run). But the Bears get Kyle Orton back this week. Weather will be in the 30's and cloudy. Who to pick? All the stats say it'll end in a tie, so take the home team. Packers. George likes the Bears.

Baltimore (6-3) at New York Giants (8-1) - Ravens have been playing real good. Rookie Joe Flacco has gotten better and better and their run game is impressive. But they lost a starting corner and a starting safety last week, and the Giants are at home. George likes the Giants.

Houston (3-6) at Indwapis (5-4) - Division game. Texans disappointed me last week, getting bludgeoned at home by the Ravens. Meanwhile the Colts played tough in Pittsburgh. Take the Colts at the Lube. George likes the Texans.

Detroit (0-9) at Carolina (7-2) - Two teams still have a perfect record this year, the Lions and the Titans. Says here we'll still have two teams with a perfect record come Sunday night. Take Carolina for sure. George likes the Lions for some reason.

New Orleans (4-5) at Kansas City (1-8) - Weather should be decent at Arrowhead. Saints put up over 500 yards in Atlanta last week, but three INT's doomed them. Chiefs played tough at San Diego, and their rookie QB Thigpen is doing OK (27-47-0-266 and two TD's last week). Saints lost DE Charles Grant and his backup is mainly a pass rusher. Larry Johnson is averaging 4.5 per carry for the Chiefs. Neither team has much D. Let's go with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. George likes the Chiefs.

Philadelphia (5-4) at Cincinnati (1-8) - Bengals have been playing better, but they still don't have Carson Palmer. Take the Eagles, who are fighting to get back into the NFC East race, or at least a wild card. George likes the Bengals.

Minnesota (5-4) at Tampa Bay (6-3) - Adrian Peterson ran for almost 200 yards last week, but that was against the Packers weak run D. It was a hard game for the Vikings, and the Bucs had the week off and are at home. George likes the Vikings.

the 2:05 MST games:

Arizona (6-3) at Seattle (2-7) - Division game. Cardinals are the better team. George likes Seattle.

St. Louis (2-7) at San Francisco (2-7) - Division game. Rams played a couple good games after Haslett took over as coach, but then settled back into mediocrity. Mike Singletary looks to be over his head as a head coach. I'm taking the Rams, although RB Steven Jackson has a banged up knee. George likes the Niners.

the 2:15 MST games:

San Diego (4-5) at Pittsburgh (6-3) - Ben Roethlisberger is banged up and may not play, but if he can't go, Byron Leftwich has done well in relief. Steelers get Willie Parker back, with a brace for his shoulder, but that shouldn't affect him. Chargers barely beat the lowly Chiefs at home last week. Take the Steelers. George likes the Chargers.

Tennessee (9-0) at Jacksonville (4-5) - Division game. Jags are a team in trouble. Coach Del Rio has problems in the locker room. Titans are in hydroglide. George likes the T's also.

the SNF game:

Dallas (5-4) at Washington (6-3) - Division game. Both teams are off a bye. 'Boys get Tony Romo back. Looks like the Reds will be without Clinton Portis (sprained/torn MCL). I bet Romo provides a big spark on prime time. Taking the 'Boys here. George likes Washington.

the MNF game:

Cleveland (3-6) at Buffalo (5-4) - Brady Quinn did OK in his debut last week. Bills were 5-1 until they had three straight games against division opponents. But I'll take the Bills at home. George likes the Browns.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Ten - 2008

bradley — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:44:05 -0000

Brad's Picks was just 7-7 last week, right when Chicago beat the Lions 27-23; when Tennessee beat the Packers 19-16 in OT; when the Ravens beat Cleveland 37-27 after falling behind 27-13 in the 3rd; when the Bucs needed OT at Arrowhead to win 30-27; when the New York Giants whupped the 'Boys 35-14; when the Eagles beat Seattle 25-7; and when Iniwops beat the Pats 18-15 on SNF.

Brad's Picks was wrong when the Dolphins beat Denver 26-17; when Minnesota beat the Texans 28-21; when the Jets beat Buffalo 26-17; when the Cardinals beat St. Louis 34-13; when Cincinnati beat the Jaguars 21-19; when the Falcons whupped on Oakland 24-0; and when the Steelers won in Washington on MNF 23-6.

Brad's Picks is 83-47 on the year.

Home teams were 6-8 last week, and are 80-50 on the year (61%). Home teams won 54.7% of the time in 2007.

Two coast to coast games last week, and both visitors won - Eagles in Seattle, and Falcons in Oakland. Visiting teams are 5-16 on the season. All five wins are by east teams out west.

George was 8-6 last week. George is 61-67 on the season.

NFC 3, AFC 1 last week. NFC 17, AFC 12 on the season.

Teams coming off a bye last week were 2-2. Teams coming off a bye are 15-9 on the season.

Teams coming off MNF were 2-0 this week, as Indwp and Tennessee both won. Teams off an MNF game are 13-4 on the season.

Off last week with a bye were San Diego (3-5); Carolina (6-2); New Orleans (4-4); and San Francisco (2-6).

Off this week with a bye are Dallas (5-4); Washington (6-3); Tampa Bay (6-3); and Baltimore (5-3). And that will do it for byes. From now on, 16 games per week.

the Thursday night game:

Denver (4-4) at Cleveland (3-5) - Browns fans have been clamoring for a change at QB, after a 3-5 start. Not sure why, since Derek Anderson hasn't been all that bad - his best wide out, Braylon Edwards, leads the league in dropped passes. At any rate, Brady Quinn gets the start at QB for the Browns. Quinn is in his 2nd year, and hasn't played more than a few downs in the NFL. Broncos are coming off a home loss in which they gained 14 yards on the ground. Yep, 14. And, they just put two RB's, Michael Pittman, and Andre Hall on IR. They're down to Selvin Young, who still has a sore groin (he's missed the last three games) and rookie Ryan Torain, who finally got three carries (for one yard) last week after breaking his elbow in training camp. So, why am I taking the Broncos? Because the defense is starting to come on, and the Browns starting Quinn for the first time on a short week is a mistake, and Bronco FB Peyton Hillis was a monster last week on screen passes. If Mike Shanahan can't figure out that Hillis should get some handoffs this week, maybe he should think about retiring. Give Hillis the damn ball! George likes the Broncos.

this week: the 11:00 MST games on Sunday:

Seattle (2-6) at Miami (4-4) - Yikes! Seahawks have to go to the east coast yet again. Matt Hasselbeck is still out, the Hawks are lousy even at home, the Dolphins are playing like a team that barely won a game last year (by that I mean, playing with a fierce hunger). Also, they have a lot of good players, especially QB Chad Pennington. George will take the Seahawks.

St. Louis (2-6) at New York Jets (5-3) - I foolishly picked the Rams at home last week against the Cardinals. I also took the Bills over the Jets. Here's a chance to correct both mistakes. Take the Jets. George will take the Rams.

Tennessee (8-0) at Chicago (5-3) - Oh, My! Big game between two good teams. Is Kyle Orton out for the Bears? Maybe, maybe not. Rex Grossman came in last week and did OK (a TD pass and a TD run). T's needed OT last week to beat the Packers in Tennessee. Did that tire the T's out? Might see a little bit of snow in the game, but the T's aren't a warm weather team. Still, I'm taking the Bears at home, maybe just because the Bears are at home. George likes the Bears also.

Green Bay (4-4) at Minnesota (4-4) - Division game. Two NFC teams just one game behind Chicago. Packers played the Titans tough in Tennessee (OT) while the Vikings beat a Texans team that is not good on the road. Taking the Packers. George likes the Vikings.

Jacksonville (3-5) at Detroit (0-8) - Jags gave up a win to the previously winless Bengals last week. Will they do it again? Detroit played tough in Chicago last week, but young QB Dan Orlovsky hurt his hand, and is off to see a specialist. Lions signed Daunte Culpepper, who has been getting the snaps in practice, over young Drew Stanton. Turns out Orlovsky might still play, but Culpepper getting all the reps is a sure sign of desperation, and I'll take the Jags. George will take the Lions.

New Orleans (4-4) at Atlanta (5-3) - Division game. Saints off a bye after the London game. Falcons had to fly to the west coast, where they pummeled the Raiders. It's tiring to fly coast to coast twice in a couple days, and I'll take the rested Saints. George likes the Saints also.

Buffalo (5-3) at New England (5-3) - Division game. Both teams lost last week. Both teams are about even on O and D for the season. This game is a pick'm game. Guess I'll go with the home team. Take the Patriots. George likes the Patriots also.

Baltimore (5-3) at Houston (3-5) - Texans QB Matt Schaub is out 2-4 weeks with a torn MCL. Backup Sage Rosenfels has been good in relief. He played most of the game in Minnesota last week, and was 21-29-1-224 and two TD's. Houston plays a lot better at home than on the road. Ravens came from behind (27-13 in the 3rd) in Cleveland to win. Rookie QB Joe Flacco has been pretty good this year. Another tough call, and I'll go with the Texans at home. Two road games in a row for the Ravens, and they had a hard time winning in Cleveland last week. George likes the Ravens.

the 2:05 MST game:

Carolina (6-2) at Oakland (2-6) - Carolina is off a bye. I picked the Raiders to beat the Falcons last week, because the Raiders were at home against a coastal team. Raiders pancaked, and the Panthers are better than the Falcons. Raiders are a total mess right now - they just waived their off season super-duper pickup, CB Deangelo Hall. George is too smart to take the Raiders here - he goes with the Panthers.

the 2:15 MST games:

Inpliws (4-4) at Pittsburgh (6-2) - Steelers have been amazing, especially QB Ben Roethlisberger. But Ben hurt his shoulder some more, and also his left hand, and may not play. But Byron Leftwich came in and did good last week in Washington - 7-10-129 and a TD. Colts played tough at home against the Pats. Steelers D is very good. George likes the Colts.

Kansas City (1-7) at San Diego (3-5) - Division game. San Diego is off a bye after the London game. Chiefs are almost as bad as the Raiders. George likes the Chargers also.

the 6:15 MST game:

New York Giants (7-1) at Philadelphia (5-3) - Division game. Well, you know. Giants are playing like they won the Super Bowl just last year. Eagles had a long plane ride last week. George likes the Giants too.

the MNF game:

San Francisco (2-6) at Arizona (5-3) - Division game. Niners are off a bye. Arizona surprised me with their blowout win at St. Louis last week. I think they're ready to take this division. George likes the Niners.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Nine - 2008

bradley — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 20:04:37 -0000

14 games this week, as four teams have a bye.

Brad's Picks was 9-5 last week, good when the Redskins beat Detroit 25-17; when New Orleans beat the Chargers 37-32; when Baltimore beat the Raiders 29-10; when the New York Jets beat the Chiefs 28-24 (despite Favre's 3 INT's); when New England beat the Rams 23-16; when Carolina beat the Cardinals 27-23 despite Kurt Warner passing for 381 yards and two (short) TD's; when Philadelphia beat the Falcons 27-14; when Houston whupped up on the Bengals 35-6; and when Tennessee whuped the Colts 31-21on MNF.

Brad's Picks was not good when Miami beat the Bills 25-16; when Dallas beat the Bucs 25-17; when the Browns won in Jacksonville 23-17; when the Giants beat Pittsburgh 21-14; and when the Seahawks won in San Francisco 34-13, sending new Niners Coach Mike Singletary into a bit of a rage.

Brad's Picks is 76-40 on the year.

Home teams were 10-4 (I'm counting the New Orleans win in London as a home win, since it cost the Saints a game in the Big Easy - but hey, they got to wear their home uni's). Home teams are 74-42 (63.7%) on the season (home teams won only 54.7% in 2007).

There were two coast to coast games last week: Raiders at Baltimore and Cardinals at Carolina. Both visiting teams lost. Visiting teams are 3-16 on the season.

George was just 5-9 last week. George is 53-61 on the season.

AFC 1, NFC 1 last week. On the season, it's AFC 11, NFC 14.

Teams coming off a bye were 1-3 last week. Teams coming off a bye are 13-7 on the season.

Teams coming off MNF were 1-0 last week (Denver had a bye). Teams off an MNF game are 11-4 on the season.

Teams on a bye last week were Denver (4-3), Chicago (4-3), Green Bay (4-3) and Minnesota (3-4). I erroneously reported last week that Houston and Cincinnati would have a bye - I was looking at an out of date schedule that had been revised because of the Hurricane Ike problem that postponed the Houston-Ravens game in Week Two.

Teams on a bye this week are San Diego, Carolina, New Orleans, and San Francisco.

this week: the 11:00 MST games:

Detroit (0-7) at Chicago (4-3) - Division game. Bears are off a bye. Lions have been playing better lately, just not good enough. Bears QB Kyle Orton is playing pretty darn good and you better take the Bears at home. George likes the Bears also.

Houston (3-4) at Minnesota (3-4) - Vikings are off a bye. Texans are enjoying a three game win streak. Their really amazing wide out Andre Johnson has 41 catches for 593 yards. Pretty darn good for half a season, except those stats are just for October. In his last three games, Matt Schaub has thrown for 953 yards, six touchdowns and two picks. He has completed 68.1 percent of his passes for 8.4 per attempt. Have the Texans gotten good enough to win on the road in Minnesota? Andre Johnson's only problem has been staying healthy, but he's healthy now. Take the Texans. George likes the Vikings.

Green Bay (4-3) at Tennessee (7-0) - Packers are off a bye. Titans are off a big win at home on MNF against the Colts. Weather should be very nice for football. Trap game for the T's? Probably not, since the Packers are not a team to be taken lightly. But the Packers D is not good, and Kerry Collins has only been sacked once this year, and I'll take the T's in a tough one. George likes the Packers on the road.

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo (5-2) - Division game. Jets barely beat the lowly Chiefs at home last Sunday, mostly because Brett Favre threw three to the Chiefs, one of which was run back 91 yards for a TD in the 4th that put the Chiefs up 24-21. But Favre did his thing, tossing a 15 yard TD to Laveranues Coles for the winning TD. In the meantime, the Bills lost in the muggy at Miami. They led 16-7 early in the third, but 4 turnovers didn't help. Weather should be good in Buffalo. Jets are really good against the run, bad against the pass. Bills are very balanced. Look for Lee Evans to have a big game. George likes the Jets.

Arizona (4-3) at St. Louis (2-5) - Division game. Cardinals played tough at Carolina last week, while the Rams played tough at New England, but both lost. Sounds like Rams RB Steven Jackson will be back after sitting out the New England game with a thigh injury. Cards don't have much of a run game, but they got Anquan Boldin back at wide, and Kurt Warner returns to his former haunt. But the Rams have been playing a lot better under new head coach Jim Haslett. Rookie wide out Donnie Avery has been red hot lately. Tough call. I'll go with the Rams in their dark dome. George likes the Rams.

Baltimore (4-3) at Cleveland (3-4) - Division game. Browns had a heckuva game at J'Ville last week, winning 23-17. Ravens stuffed the Raiders. Weather should be good. Browns will not be able to run the ball, making the passing game a problem. I'm taking the Ravens. George likes the Browns.

Tampa Bay (5-3) at Kansas City (1-6) - Bucs had a defensive struggle in Dallas last week, gaining just 4.7 per pass attempt. But the Chiefs are beyond bad. Take the Bucs. George likes the Chiefs.

Jacksonville (3-4) at Cincinnati (0-8) - Bengals O line is not very good, and Carson Palmer is still out. Jags aren't as good as they'd like to be, but should win this game. George likes the Bengals.

the 2:05 MST game:

Miami (3-4) at Denver (4-3) - Denver off a bye. Dolphins QB Chad Pennington was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against the Bills (22-30-0-314 and one TD). Dolphins have been using an old college formation, with a RB lining up at the QB spot (it's called the Wildcat). RB Ronnie Brown has been very good at executing from that position. Brown has been very good in general. Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter has 10.5 sacks in just 7 games, which translates to a league record if he keeps it up. Porter is a Colorado State alum, so I wish him well, but not this week (he was just named the AFC Defensive player of the week). He'll provide a real test for a Bronco O line that has given up just one sack all year. Broncos D has not been good, and they've lost Champ Bailey for a month or so, and the O has been prone to turnovers lately. If this game was in Miami, I wouldn't hesitate to pick the Dolphins. But it's at Mile High, and I think the Broncos off a bye will win the game. It's gonna be high scoring, whoever wins. George takes the Dolphins.

the 2:15 MST games:

Dallas (5-3) at New York Giants (6-1) - Division game. Dallas won a game without Tony Romo, even though Brad Johnson was just 19 of 33 for 122 yards - just 2.8 yards per attempt. Pretty pathetic, but he didn't turn it over. Now tight end Witten has a broken rib, although he hopes to play. The big issue for the 'Boys is their beat up secondary. Manning and Burress will take advantage. Giants win. George likes the Giants also.

Atlanta (4-3) at Oakland (2-5) - Falcons are the better team, but it's a long plane ride and the Raiders play well at home. George like the Raiders also.

Philadelphia (4-3) at Seattle (2-5) - Weather might be rainy, with a high of 53 and a low of 45. Weird. Another long plane ride for the visiting Eagles, but they're a lot better than the sad Seahawks and it gets rainy in Philly too. And, they have Brian Westbrook back. George likes the Eagles.

the SNF game:

New England (5-2) at Indwaplis) (3-4) - Colts stopped the Titans run game pretty good, while they averaged 4.3 against a Titan run D that was first in the league. Patriots have been playing very well without Tom Brady (they'd probably be 7-0 with him). Taking the Colts at the Lube. They started slow, then have been up and down, but I think they got it together in a tough game at Tennessee last week. George likes the Patriots.

the MNF game:

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Washington (6-2) - Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked more than all but two QB's in the league. The O line is a mess, but Ben keeps making plays. But for how long? Willie Parker should be back at RB. Both the Steelers kicker and punter were hurt last week. Reds QB Jason Campbell hasn't thrown an INT this year. Clinton Portis leads the league in rushing. Giants' Plaxico Burress said after last week's game that the Steeler D is the best in the league (they held the Giants to just 2.4 per run). Washington had an easier game last week at Detroit than the Steelers had, and I'll take the Redskins at home, but it's going to be brutal. George likes the Steelers.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Eight - 2008

bradley — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 21:45:15 -0000

Only 13 games this week, as six teams have a bye.

Brad's Picks was 10-4 last week, right when St. Louis beat the 'Boys 34-14; when Buffalo beat the Chargers 23-14; when the Titans won at Arrowhead 34-10; when the New York Giants beat the Forty Niners 29-17; when the Steelers beat Cincinnati 38-10; when Carolina beat the Saints 30-7; when Houston beat the Lions 28-21; when Oakland beat the Jets in OT 16-13; when Washington squeaked by the Browns 14-11; and when Tampa Bay beat the Seahawks 20-10.

Brad's Picks was wrong when the Colts got stomped in Green Bay 34-14; when the Ravens won in Miami 27-13; when Chicago got 14 quick points off turnovers and beat the Vikings 48-41, and when the Broncos bombed in New England on MNF 41-7

Brad's Picks is 67-35 on the season.

Home teams were 11- 3 overall last week (for the second week in a row, and are 64-38 on the season (62.7%). This is a big turnaround from last season, when home teams won just 54.7 % of the time.

There were four coast to coast games last week, and the visitor lost in all four. Visiting teams are 3-14 on the season. All three of the wins were by east coast teams going to the west coast.

George was 6-7 last week (he forgot to pick the Seahawks at Tampa game). George is 48-52 on the season.

Teams coming off a bye last week were 3-1, and are 12-4 on the season.

Teams coming off a MNF game were 1-1 last week, and are 10-4 on the season. Isn't this kind of surprising? Maybe it's because the better teams are scheduled to play on MNF - otherwise, it would seem that teams would be at a disadvantage the next week with a day and a half less to get ready.

NFC 2, AFC 1 last week. On the season, it's NFC 13, AFC 10.

Off last week with a bye were Arizona (4-2), Atlanta (4-2), Jacksonville (3-3), and Philadelphia (3-3).

Off this week with a bye are Chicago (4-3), Cincinnati (0-7), Denver (4-3), Green Bay (4-3), Houston (2-4), and Minnesota (3-4).

This week: the 11:00 MST games:

Oakland (2-4) at Baltimore (3-3) - Raiders played the Jets tough last week, winning in OT on a 57 yard Janikowski FG in OT. But that was against an east coast team on the west coast, and now it's the other way around. Baltimore is playing pretty good, and their real good D will stifle Jamarcus Russell. George will take the Raiders.

Arizona (4-2) at Carolina (5-2) - Cards are off a bye after beating the 'Boys 30-24 the week before. But that was in the desert, and it took OT to do it. Carolina crushed a Saints team last week that is probably better than the Cardinals, and the Cards have that long trip east. George will take the Cardinals.

Tampa Bay (4-2) at Dallas (4-3) - This would be a really good game if the Cowboys were healthy, but they're not. Tony Romo still has a broken finger on his throwing hand, so Brad Johnson will likely start. He and the rest of the team were pretty bad last week in St. Louis, but are at home this week.But I'm going to take the Bucs, who are playing real good as a team, which the 'Boys are not. George also takes the Bucs.

Washington (5-2) at Detroit (0-6) - Lions have actually been playing okay, while the Redskins have been skating by (losing at home to the Rams, then barely beating the Browns at home). I'm tempted to pick an upset here, but I'm generally playing it safe this week. Take the Reds. George likes the Lions.

Buffalo (5-1) at Miami (2-4) - Division game. Bills played a real good game last week against the Chargers. Dolphins couldn't stand up against the Ravens. Weather should be rainy and warm. Could favor the home team. Don't know how to call it, but I guess I'll go with the 5-1 team. Take the Bills. George likes the Dolphins.

St. Louis (2-4) at New England (4-2) - Rams are 2-0 under interim Head Coach Jim Haslett, after they knocked off two NFC East powerhouses, Washington and then the Cowboys. Patriots won big on MNF over the Broncos, but they know they're not that much better than the Broncos, and Coach Belichick will remind them of that. But they'll be good enough to beat the hot Rams. Should be a good game. Take the Patriots. George likes the Rams.

San Diego (3-4) at New Orleans (3-4) - Actually, this game will be in London, which is actually in England, but it counts as a home game for the Saints. It'll be about 6:00 p.m. there, which is pretty weird, if you think about it. Also, the Atlantic will be to the west of the gridiron instead of to the east. More weird. Both teams lost on the road last week. Heck if I know how to call this one. Two good teams on the other side of the pond. George likes the Saints. I'm just going to go with George on this one, and take the Saints.

Kansas City (1-5) at New York Jets (3-3) - Chiefs are really hurting - both starting QB's (Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard) went on IR this week, so Tyler Thigpen gets the start. Take Brett Favre and his Jets at home. George will go with the Chiefs.

Atlanta (4-2) at Philadelphia (3-3) - Both teams are off a bye. Atlanta's rookie QB Matt Ryan has played better than anyone in Georgia could have hoped for. He'll be rookie of the year if he keeps it up. But the Eagles D is ferocious. George likes the Falcons.

the 2:05 MST game:

Cleveland (2-4) at Jacksonville (3-3) - Jags off a bye, and they're at home. George likes the Jags.

the 2:15 MST games:

New York Giants (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-1) - Wow. What a showdown. Two recent Super Bowl winners. Both 5-1. Ben Roethlisberger has been working miracles behind a shaky O line, but the Giants D line is not what it was last year, without Strahan and Umenyiora. I'm taking Ben and his Steelers at home. George likes the Steelers too.

Seattle (1-4) at San Francisco (2-5) - Division game. Both teams played on the east coast last week, and both lost. I'm taking the Niners at home. Matt Hasselbeck is still out at QB for the Seahawks. George likes the Seahawks.

(no Sunday night game, I guess because of something called the World Series, whatever that is)

the MNF game:

Inwiplis (3-3) at Tennessee (6-0) - Division game. Colts got stomped in Green Bay last week, while the T's had a laugher in Kansas City. Comeuppance time for the Colts in this division game. Take the T's. George likes the T's also.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Seven - 2008

bradley — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 20:51:24 -0000

A crazy week last week - five games decided in the last ten seconds, one of the best teams upset at home by one of the worst (Rams at Washington), and the Giants creamed in Cleveland on MNF.

Brad's Picks was 7-7 last week, correct when Houston beat the Dolphins 29-28; when Minnesota beat the Lions 12-10; when New Orleans stomped the Raiders 34-3; when the New York Jets beat the Carson Palmer- less Bengals 26-14; when Arizona beat the Cowboys 30-24 in OT; when the Eagles beat San Francisco 40-26; and when San Diego beat the Patriots 30-10 on SNF.

Brad's Picks was wrong when the Jags whupped Denver 24-17; when Atlanta beat the Bears 22-10; when the Rams beat Washington 19-17; when Inweeapolis totally whupped the Ravens 31-3; when Tampa Bay beat the Panthers 27-3; when the Packers beat the Matt Hasselbeck-less Seattle Seahawks 27-17; and when the Giants got stomped by Cleveland 35-14 on MNF.

Brad's Picks is 57-31 on the season.

Home teams were 11-3 overall last week and are 53-35 on the season. Home teams playing a team from the opposite coast were 1-1 last week, as the Eagles won in San Francisco and San Diego beat the Patriots. Home teams playing a team from the opposite coast are 10-3 on the season.

Teams coming off a bye were 3-1 last week, as Oakland lost, while Cleveland, the New York Jets and Rams won. Teams coming off a bye are 8-4 on the season.

Teams coming off an MNF game are 9-3 on the season as both Minnesota and New Orleans won last week.

George was 7-7 last week, the first time he's batted .500. George is 42-45 on the season.

NFC 1, AFC 1 last week, as the Giants lost at Cleveland on MNF, and New Orleans beat the Raiders. On the season, it's NFC 11, AFC 9.

Off last week with a bye were Buffalo (4-1); Kansas City (1-4); Pittsburgh (4-1); and Tennessee (5-0).

Off this week with a bye are: Arizona (4-2); Atlanta (4-2); Jacksonville (3-3); and Philadelphia (3-3).

this week: the 11:00 MDT games:

San Diego (3-3) at Buffalo (4-1) - Bills are off a by, while the Chargers played the Patriots on the west coast last Sunday night. Chargers not only have to do the west to east coast thing, but then they take off for London to play the Saints next week. West coast teams playing on the east coast are 0-6 this year. Bills get QB Trent Edwards back after a concussion two weeks ago, and they also get the electrifying WR/PR Roscoe Parrish who tore ligaments in his thumb four weeks ago. Take the Bills. George will take the Chargers.

New Orleans (3-3) at Carolina (4-2) - Division game. Panthers got rung up at Tampa last week by a rejuvenated Jeff Garcia. Panthers were maybe a little too loose after routing the Chiefs 34-0 the week before. Meanwhile, New Orleans routed the Raiders last week, 34-3. Panthers should pull it together as the Saints will be thinking of their flight to London. George takes the Saints.

Minnesota (3-3) at Chicago (3-3) - Division game. Vikings are 3-1 with Gus Frerotte at QB in place of Tarvaris Jackson. Still, they barely beat the lowly Lions at home last week. But the Bears have problems in the secondary - CB Nathan Vasher has missed a couple games and might miss another. Their other starting CB, Charles Tillman, had to leave last week's game with his arm in a sling. His backup, Trumaine McBride, also had to leave the game. Safety Danieal Manning is also banged up. Bears had a tough loss in Atlanta last week - after going ahead on a great TD toss by Kyle Orton with 11 seconds to go, they let the Falcons come back to win on a Jason Elam 48 yard FG. Weather should be nice. Gonna take the Vikings here, because the Bears are beat up and had a long road trip last week. George also likes the Vikes.

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Cincinnati (0-6) - Division game. Steelers are off a bye. Carson Palmer did not play last week, and won't play this week either. Take the Steelers. George likes the Steelers.

Tennessee (5-0) at Kansas City (1-4) - Both teams are off a bye. Arrowhead's a tough place to play, but take the Titans. George likes the T's also.

Baltimore (2-3) at Miami (2-3) - This is a tough call. Ravens got stomped in Inweeop last week, but getting behind early and then turning the ball over 5 times will do that to you. Dolphins are giving up just 3.5 on the ground. Ravens run D is better, but Chad Pennington is a much better QB than Joe Flacco, and the Dolphins old/new Wildcat offense should put some points on the board. Ronnie Brown has been tremendous lately for the Fins. It's going to be fairly hot (80 or so) and real humid on Sunday. I'm taking the Dolphins. George likes the Dolphins.

San Francisco (2-4) at New York Giants (4-1) - Giants were sailing along at the top of most power rankings with a 4-0 record (and why not? they're still the NFL Champs) but then they got cleaned in Cleveland on Monday night. Giants last four opponents have a combined record of 3-17 (their first opponent this year, the Redskins, are 4-2), so are the Giants really any good? We won't find out this weekend, as the Niners will not win after a trip from the west coast. George agrees, and takes the Giants.

Dallas (4-2) at St. Louis (1-4) - Cowboys QB Tony Romo broke his little finger in the OT period at Arizona last week, and will be out at least a month (although there is some talk he could play, but the risk is more damage to the finger). He'll be replaced by the elderly Brad Johnson, who is in his 17th season. Cowboys also will be without CB Adam Pacman Jones, who was re-suspended by the league as a result of an alcohol related fight Jones got in a few days ago. Jones had replaced CB Terrence Newman, who is out for a month or so. In more news from Dallas, they are bringing in WR Roy Williams from Detroit in a last second trade. Williams is very good, but will TO pout now? Also, RB Felix Jones will miss a couple weeks with a hammie, and the 'Boys placed punter Mat McBriar on IR after he broke his foot on the last play of the AZ game. 'Boys signed punter Sam Paulescu, who was with Denver in the preseason and is very good. Meanwhile, the Rams came up with a huge win for new coach Jim Haslett in Washington. Haslett was head coach in New Orleans for some years, and has been the D coordinator for the Rams the past couple years, so is not new to the job. He's a fiery guy (played linebacker for the Bills, I think it was) and I'm taking the Rams in their dark dome. It's a scary call, and I'm not so much picking the Rams as not picking the Boys, who haven't played great lately. George likes the Rams too.

the 2:05 MDT game:

Detroit (0-5) at Houston (1-4)- Lions QB Jon Kitna was placed on IR. Young QB Dan Orlovsky ran out of the end zone last week for no good reason except to give the Vikings a safety. And now he'll be without his best receiver in Williams, off to the Cowboys. Houston has played tough all year, and is better than 1-4. I'm taking the Texans. George likes the Lions.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Inwaplis (3-2) at Green Bay (3-3) - Colts stomped the Ravens last week, 31-3, and the 3 was in garbage time. Five turnovers by the Ravens sure helped, but Peyton Manning was back to form, throwing three TD passes, two to Marvin Harrison, who hadn't done much this year after an injury plagued 07. RB Joseph Addai missed most of the game, and will likely sit out this one with a torn hammy. Domenic Rhodes repalced him and got 73 on 25, but 38 of the 73 was on one run. So, a 1.4 average the rest of the time. That was against the Ravens D, best in the league vs the run. Packers D has given up almost three times what the Ravens have, so Manning may get a little more help from his RB's. Packers had some trouble at Seattle, even though the Hawks were without Matt Hasselbeck. Packers secondary is hurting, and the weather should be nice, and I think Manning has his timing back. Take the Colts. George likes the Colts.

New York Jets (3-2) at Oakland (1-4) - Jets have been all about Brett Favre this year, but the D is better also. Their sack rate is much improved over last year, and they're only giving up 75 on the ground this year. Raiders need to run the ball to be successful. Long plane ride here, but it's easier going west. But the Jets barely beat the Bengals in New York last week, without Carson Palmer, so I'm going with the Raiders in what most would see as an upset. George likes the Raiders.

Cleveland (2-3) at Washington (4-2) - Browns had a huge win at home last Monday night over the Giants, while the Redskins got embarrassed at home by the Rams. But that was a trap game for Washington, and the Browns need to come down a bit after Monday night. George likes Washington.

the 6:15 MDT game:

Seattle (1-4) at Tampa Bay (4-2) - Sorry, Seahawks fans, but this is the easiest pick of the week. Hawks just cannot win on the east coast, and the Bucs are looking better with Garcia under center. Matt Hasselbeck still won't be playing for the Hawks. George likes the Hawks.

the MNF game:

Denver (4-2) at New England (3-2) - Patriots are back from two weeks on the west coast, the last game a loss at San Diego on Sunday night. Broncos are 4-1 against the Patriots since 2002, three of those wins in Massachussetts. But that was then. The weather Monday night should be perfect for football. Patriots defensive backs got roughed up in San Diego, and here comes Jay Cutler. Eddie Royal should be back at wider receiver. I gotta take the Broncos here. George likes the Broncos.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Six - 2008

bradley — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 20:23:14 -0000

14 more games this week, but only two division games.

Brad's Picks was 9-5 last week, on the mark when Denver beat the Bucs 16-13; when the Bears stuffed Detroit 34-7; when Miami stuffed the Chargers 17-10 (that's 7 consecutive wins over the Chargers); when the Falcons won at Lambeau 27-24; when the New York Giants totally embarrassed the Seahawks 44-6; when the Titans edged Baltimore 13-10; when Carolina whupped the Chiefs 34-0; when Dallas had a hard time with the Bengals but won 31-22; and when Arizona beat the Bills 41-17.

Brad's Picks was off the mark when Houston turned it over three times in the last four minutes and coughed up 21 points to the Colts to lose 31-27; when the Redskins won at Philly 23-17; when the Patriots beat San Francisco 30-21; when the Steelers came from behind to win at Jacksonville 26-21on SNF; and when The Vikings beat New Orleans 30-27on MNF, despite two punt returns for TD's by Reggie Bush.

Brad's Picks is 50-24 on the season.

Home teams were 6-7 overall last week, and are 42-32 on the season.

Home teams playing a team from the opposite coast were 3-1 last week, and are 9-2 on the season. There are two coast to coast games this week: Eagles at San Francisco and Patriots at San Diego (give another asterisk to this one, since the Patriots stayed on the west coast after last week's game at San Francisco).

George was 8-6 last week, and is 35-38 on the season.

NFC 3, AFC 2 last week. On the season, it's NFC 10, AFC 8.

Brad's Picks is going to start tracking how well teams do the week after they had a bye - I've been curious about this for some time. After the first (Hurricane Ike imposed) bye week (Week Two), it was 1-1 in Week Three, as Houston lost and Baltimore won after the hurricane. Teams with a bye in Week Four were Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Seahawks and the Giants, and they went 4-2 the next week. So, on the season, teams coming off a bye are 5-3.

Brad's Picks will also begin monitoring how well the MNF teams did the next Sunday. So far the record is 7-3. (The first MNF had two games - Vikings at Green Bay and Broncos at Oakland. Broncos and Packers won the next week, Vikings and Raiders lost. Week Two's MNF teams were Eagles at Dallas, and both won the next week. Week Three's teams were Jets at San Diego, and both won the next week. Week Four had Ravens at Pittsburgh, and they were 1-1 in Week Five).

Off last week with a bye are Cleveland (1-3), New York Jets (2-2), St. Louis (0-4), and Oakland (1-3).

Off this week with a bye are: Buffalo (4-1); Kansas City (1-4); Pittsburgh (4-1); and Tennessee (5-0).

This week: the 11:00 MDT games:

Chicago ((3-2) at Atlanta (3-2) - Tough call here. Falcons did a good job at Lambeau last week, while the Bears romped in Detroit. Rookie RB Matt Forte has been stolid for the Bears, grinding out 383 yards at a 3.6 per carry rate. But RB Michael Turner has been fantastic for the Falcons, gaining 543 yards at a 5.3 rate. But Chicago's D has been very good. Both teams are 3-2, but Atlanta has played two weak teams in Detroit and Kansas City, Chicago has only played Detroit. Interestingly, the Bears and Falcons have played three common opponents this year: Detroit, Tampa, and Carolina. Falcons got whipped 24-9 at Carolina, Bears lost 20-17 there. Tampa Bay beat the Falcons 24-9, while Chicago lost to the Bucs 27-24 in OT. Both teams beat the Lions (but you knew that). Anyway, I'll take the Bears here. George likes Atlanta.

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4) - Dolphins are a real surprise this year, after a 1-15 record in 2007. So far they have beaten both AFC Championship teams from 07, the Patriots and the Chargers. Their red zone defense was the worst in the league last year, but this year it's one of the best. Miami beat the Chargers 17-10 last week, but it really wasn't that close. Houston had the Colts on the ropes last week, up 27-10 with just four minutes to go, but three turnovers (two by backup QB Sage Rosenfels) led to 21 late points by the Colts. I'm hoping the Texans play a full four quarters this week, and win a home game for the Houston folks. George likes the Dolphins.

Baltimore (2-2) at Ineepoplis (2-2) - Colts only managed 79 yards on the ground last week at Houston, while the Texans ran for 156. Colts still haven't won a game at their new, and quaintly named Lucas Oil Stadium, charmingly referred to as the Lube by the local rubes. Colts still have some injury problems, with DE Dwight Freeney experiencing a strained leg; WR Anthony Gonzales suffered a concussion last week, although apparently not a sever one, and looks like he'll play; and CB Kelvin Hayden hurting his knee last week - looks like he's out. I'm taking the Ravens here - Colts D is awful, Ravens D is leading the AFC. George likes the Colts.

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3) - Division game. Vikings starting LB E.J. Henderson was placed on IR after surgery on his toes. Vikings pulled out a 30-27 win in New Orleans last Monday night, despite the Saints pretty much shutting down the Vikings RB Adrian Peterson (32 yards on 21 carries) but Gus Frerotte had a good game for the Vikes (19-36-0-222 and 33 yard TD to Bernard Berrian). Saints got a lot of help from their special teams, with kick returns of 56, 32 and 41 yards, plus two punt returns for TD's, but the Vikes still won. That was a tough game for the Vikings on the road, and now they get one of the worst teams in the league at home. George likes the Vikings also.

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3) - Raiders are off a bye, which is good, since they introduce their new head coach, Tom Cable, their 4th head coach in the last 6 years, as Mad Al Davis continues his mad ways. New Orleans has lost starting CB Tracey Porter for the season with a wrist injury, but the Saints did a good job of shutting down the Vikings run game last week, and now they face another running team. Saints would have beaten the Vikings last week if not for a 59 yard return by the Vikings on a blocked field goal. George likes the Raiders.

Cincinnati (0-5) at New York Jets (2-2) - Jets are off a bye. Two weeks ago, Brett Favre passed for 6 touchdowns, leading the Jets to a 56-35 win over the Cardinals. The six TD passes were both a personal record for Favre, and a team record for the Jets. Jets haven't gotten their run game going, but what better time than against the Bengals? They're giving up over 170 ground yards per game. Favre has had another two weeks to learn the Jets offense. George likes the Bengals.

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) - Division game. Bucs had a tough game last week at Mile High, while Carolina toyed with the Chiefs. These two teams were 1-1 last year. Bucs were 9-7 and the Panthers were 7-9. Panthers have improved more since 2007. George likes the Panthers too.

St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1) - Rams are off a bye, but they've have been terrible all year. New head coach Jim Haslett will put a little fire into them, but it won't help. Redskins have been eating lots of red meat. Clinton Portis was a monster in last week's game at Philly - 29 carries, 145 yards -- against a Philly D that had allowed just 54 yards rushing per game in the first month of the season, and QB Jason Campbell is playing a good game - 6 TD's, 0 INT's on the year. George likes the Rams.

the 2:05 MDT game:

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1) - Broncos won a close game at Mile High last week, beating the Bucs 16-13. Jags lost at home to the Steelers 26-21 , a game almost everyone thought the Jags would win. But Ben Roesthlisberger played great, and brought the Steelers from behind to win late. Broncos had some injuries last week - WR Eddie Royal has a bruised bone in his ankle, but should play. TE Tony Scheffler and RB Selvin Young will not play - both have strained groin muscles. Jags haven't recovered from the loss of their center and both starting guards and have been giving up some yards through the air, and here comes Jay Cutler and his receivers. Take Denver at Mile High. George likes Denver also.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2) - You just gotta wonder about Terrell Owens. After complaining about only 19 touches in week four, he had a 57 yard catch for a TD last week vs. the Bengals. He was seen to be crying on the sidelines after the catch. After the game, he said that God had used him for his glory. What a guy. Cowboys CB Terence Newman will miss Sunday's game against the Cardinals with an abdominal irritation, and his backup, Adam Pacman Jones, got into a fight the other night and may be suspended, but probably not for this game anyway. Both of these teams are high scoring, and their D's are about equal. With the Cowboys missing Newman, I like the Cardinals at home. Boys barely beat the Bengals in Dallas last week, while Arizona trounced the Bills. George likes the Cardinals also.

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3) - Brian Westbrook has two broken ribs For the second week in a row, the Forty Niners get to host a team from the east coast (and you know that visiting teams from the opposite coast are just 2-9). It didn't help the Niners last week, as they lost to the Patriots 30-21, and I don't think it will help this week. I'm taking the Eagles, even though Brian Westbrook has two broken ribs. George also likes the Eagles.

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3) - Packers have lost CB Harris and DE Jenkins for the season. Despite a sprained shoulder, Packers QB Aaron Rogers threw for 313 yards last week in a losing effort at Lambeau to the Falcons. Seattle Coach Mike Holmgren once again goes against his old team. Packers D is hurting, while the Hawks D just hasn't been playing well. Seahawks got trounced last week by the New York Giants but they are a lot better at home than on the east coast. Hasselbeck has had another week to work with his receivers, and I'm picking Seattle. Packers have had too many injuries. George likes Seattle.

the 6:15 MDT SNF game:

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) - Chargers lost OLB Shawn Merriman for the year after one game, and now his replacement, Jyles Tucker, is out for 1-2 weeks. Patriots played last week at San Francisco, so they stayed on the west coast, practicing at San Jose State in Santa Clara. Patriots won at San Francisco by 9 last week, while the Chargers lost by 7 at Miami. Chargers have had some injuries (LaDainian Tomlinson is limping, and Antonio Gates has some issues), and we've already mentioned Jyles Tucker, but those pale in comparison to the Patriots losing Tom Brady. A couple weeks ago, the Cardinals stayed on the east coast for a week between games at Washington and the New York Jets, and the result was pretty bad as the Cards lost by 21. Chargers lost by 21-12 last year at New England in the AFC Championship game, and want a little payback. If LT can't go, Darren Sproles is proving to be a good replacement. Taking the Chargers. George likes the Patriots.

the MNF game at 6:30 MDT:

New York Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3) - Browns are off a bye and the four teams the Giants have beaten have a combined record of just 5-13, while the four teams the Browns have played have a combined record of 10-9. And the Browns are all rested up after a bye, and are at home. So take the Browns? Naah, didn't think so. Take the Giants on the road. George likes the Browns.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Five - 2008

bradley — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 21:20:21 -0000

14 games this week, as four teams get a bye.

Brad's Picks was 8-5 last week, correcto when Tennessee beat the Vikings 30-17; when New Orleans beat the Forty Niners 31-17; when Carolina beat the Falcons 24-9; when Tampa Bay beat the Packers 30-21; when Jacksonville beat the Texans in OT 30-27; when the Bills beat St. Louis 31-14; when the Chargers scored 25 in the 4th to beat Oakland 28-18; when Chicago beat the Eagles 24-20 on SNF, stopping the Eagles when they had 2nd and goal at the one yard line late in the game.

Brad's Picks was incorrecto when the Broncos got outplayed at Arrowhead (someone forgot to tell the previously winless Chiefs they were supposed to lose); when Cincinnati, playing without Carson Palmer, lost to the Browns 20-12; when the New York Jets whupped up on the Cardinals 56-35 (Jets scored 34 points in the second quarter) but hey, if I'da known that the Jets were going to wear those truly horrible retro uni's (the second ugliest uni's ever) I'da taken the Jets - you just know the Cardinals were too grossed out to play well; when the Redskins surprised Dallas 26-24, and when the Ravens gave up a ten point half time lead and lost in Pittsburgh 23-20 in OT.

Brad's Picks is 41-19 on the season.

Home teams were 8-5 overall, and are 36-24 overall on the season. Home teams playing a team from the opposite coast are 6-1 on the season, as the New York Jets whupped the Cardinals. But give this one some sort of an asterisk, since the Cardinals stayed on the east coast last week after their game in Washington on the 23rd. There are four coast to coast games this week: Chargers at Miami; Seahawks at New York Giants; Bills at Arizona; and Patriots at San Francisco.

NFC 0, AFC 3 this week. On the season, it's NFC 7, AFC 6.

George was 6-7 last week, and is 27-32 on the season.

Off this week with a bye are Cleveland (1-3), New York Jets (2-2), St. Louis (0-4), and Oakland (1-3).

this week: the 11:00 MDT games:

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1) - Titans are one of just two undefeated teams left. But they haven't beaten a team with a winning record (opponents' combined record is 3-12). Baltimore is coming off an OT loss at Pittsburgh last Monday night. This game features one of the oldest QB's in the league (Kerry Collins) vs. one of the youngest (Joe Flacco). Flacco is looking good, and not just for a rookie. But, even though the Ravens were up by ten at the half in Pittsburgh, the Steelers brought some heat on young Joe and took the ball away from him a couple times. Titans defense is very good, and should give young Joe some problems. George likes Baltimore at home.

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1) - Both of Carolina's OT's were hurt last week - rookie Jeff Otah with a knee, Jordan Gross with a concussion. Looks like Otah will play, Gross will not. Elderly Muhsin Muhammad had 8 catches for 147 yards and Steve Smith had 6 for 96, but the Falcons held the Panthers to 3.2 per carry on the ground. Chiefs are coming off a huge win at Arrowhead over the Broncos, where Larry Johnson ran wild, gaining 198 on 28 carries. When you realize that the Panthers gave up 5.1 yards per carry last week to the Falcons, this could be a high scoring game. Still, I think the Panthers win at home, partly because I think the Chiefs left some on the field last week, and it's gonna be hot in Charlotte. George likes the Panthers also.

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3) - Division game. Lions are off a bye, and they also fired General Manager Matt Millen, but that won't mean much to the players - coaches remain the same. Lions last game was a 48-25 thumping at home by the Packers. Bears held off the Eagles last week, with a very good goal line stand. Think the Bears are tired enough to let the rested Lions beat them? Naah. I'm taking the Bears, even though wide receiver Brandon Lloyd hurt his knee last week (he's been wearing a big brace), and his backup, Marty Booker also hurt his knee. George will take Detroit.

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2) - Aaron Rogers suffered a separated or sprained shoulder last week at Tampa Bay (he was sacked three times), and has been throwing nothing but tennis balls this week. He may practice on Friday, but I doubt it. I was surprised to discover recently that the Falcons lead the league in rushing yards (181 per game). Michael Turner was obviously a great pickup for the Falcons in the off season. Packers drafted two QB's last year, Brian Brohm in the second round and Matt Flynn in the 7th. Odd that it was the 7th round guy that came in when Rogers got hurt. I'm guessing that Matt Flynn will be the starting QB at Lambeau, along with rookie Matt Ryan for the Falcons. Green Bay is giving up 157 on the ground, not good with Michael Turner coming to town. Gonna take the Falcons in an upset, but I'm hoping that Rogers doesn't play and also that Matt Ryan isn't too awed by Lambeau Field. George also likes the Falcons.

Inpopolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3) - Division game. Colts are off a bye, and they needed it with all the injuries and the rust on Manning. Colts started the last three seasons 7-0, so Colts fans are in shock. Houston played tough in Jacksonville last week, losing in OT, but they lost starting strong safety C.C. Brown for the year in the process. Matt Schaub had a good game, and rookie RB Steve Slaton had 116 total yards from scrimmage. The teams are about equal in team stats, both giving up a lot of yards on the ground. Heck, I don't know. Guess I'll take the Texans at home. George likes Houston.

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2) - Miami is off a bye. Dolphins absolutely shocked the Pats two weeks ago, 38-13. RB Ronnie Brown had a huge game, running for 113 yards and four TD's and passing for another TD. Chargers were losing at Oakland until the 4th quarter. The two offenses are about even statistically, but Miami has the better defense. Taking Miami at home. Long flight for the Chargers, and the Fins had a week to come down from the blowout in New England and get ready. George likes the Chargers.

Seattle (1-2) at New York Giants (3-0) - Both teams are off a bye. The bye week gave the Seahawks some time to recover from all their injuries, especially at wide receiver. Bobby Engram will be back, but Deion Branch will probably not be quite ready. Right tackle Sean Loclear and RB Maurice Morris should be OK, and the recently re-signed Koren Robinson has had some time to get his football feet under him and re-connect with Matt Hasselbeck. This is a big game for the Hawks, as their next five opponents have a combined 11-4 record. But they're lousy on the east coast, and the Giants also had a week off with not many problems to fix (except they suspended Plaxico Burress for the game for insubordination). George thinks the Giants can win this one also.

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2) - Division game. Reds lost the 1st game of season, 16-7 at NYG on TNF, but they're 3-0 since. Eagles RB Brian Westbrook didn't play last week at Chicago, and is still limping around. But the Eagles D has held opposing runners to 54 yards per game. Clinton Portis is averaging 92 per game for the Reds. Who to take? I'll take the Eagles, for a couple reasons: the monster 54 yards per game given up on the ground; they're at home (they're 2-0 at home); and the Redskins are coming off a huge win at Dallas and might need to calm down a bit. George also will take the Eagles.

the 2:05 MDT game:

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1) - Brian Griese comes back to Denver, as the Bucs QB. Griese took over the starting spot from Jeff Garcia three weeks ago, and the Bucs are 3-0 since. Griese passed for 407 yards two weeks ago in an OT win at Chicago, but had a more pedestrian 149 yards last week at home against the Packers. More telling, he tossed 3 INT's in each of those two games. His QB rating is 62.5, 30th in the NFL, and he's averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt. Broncos looked like they did not show up to play last week at Arrowhead, but they'll be sharper this week back at Mile High. TB's D has some age on it, at least in the secondary, and playing at Mile High will be hard after a hard game against the Packers last week. Take the Broncos. George will take the Bucs.

the 2:15 MDT games:

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2) - Bills second long road trip in two weeks - St. Louis last week, where Trent Edwards got sacked 4 times. Cards have a much better defense than the Rams, so look for more of the same. Kurt Warner turned it over 6 times last week (three INT's, three fumbles) against the Jets, but I bet he'll be more in sync back in the desert. Cards have lost their great wide out Anquan Boldin with a concussion, although they still have Larry Fitzgerald, and second year guy Steve Breaston had 122 on 9 catches last week (but then you gotta figure all the DB's were busy covering Fitzgerald and Boldin). Bills, like the Titans, are 4-0, but their opponent's combined record is 4-11. I'm taking the Cardinals at home against a Bills team that's had to travel a lot lately. George likes Arizona also.

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1) - Story is that Terrell Owens had a "serious conversation" with Tony Romo after last week's loss to the Redskins. TO denies there is an issue, but it looks like he was complaining about not getting the ball enough (only 19 or so touches on 50 or so offensive plays). Coach Wade Phillips criticized Romo for passing too much last week (Romo has the option of going with a pass or run play as he approaches the line of scrimmage and the Cowboys only ran the ball 11 times in the 26-24 loss). Anyway, it's fun to see the 'Boys unravel a bit, but it won't matter this week. Bengals played tough at New York Giants two weeks ago, but they had Carson Palmer then, and now they do not. Take Dallas. George also likes Dallas.

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2) - Patriots are off a bye. They are maybe glad to be away from home, as they got some boos from the home crowd two weeks ago, as the Dolphins were abusing them. Randy Moss, after torching the Chiefs for 116 yards and a touchdown on six receptions in Week One, has just 47 yards on six catches with no scores in the two games since. Reports are he is pouting again (just 4 catches for 25 yards against the Dolphins). Patriots D gave up 461 yards to the Dolphins, twice what the Patriots O generated against the Fins. Patriots QB Matt Cassell has seen his rating drop by 22 points in each of the last two games, and talk about rookie QB Kevin O'Connell (a fine Irish lad) is cropping up in Beantown. Niners QB J.T. O'Sullivan was sacked 6 times last week in New Orleans, while the Niners D could not generate a pass rush in the Big Easy. Close call here, but I'll stay on the West Coast and take the Niners at home. George likes the Patriots.

the 6:15 MDT game:

Pittsburgh ((3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2) - Steelers RB Willie Parker looks to miss another game. What's worse, the Steelers lost promising rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall for the season, and his backup, Corey Davis, limped off the field last week with a sprained ankle last week. What's even worse, the Steelers lost starting guard Kendall Simmons for the year. Simmons was maybe their best O lineman, on a line that was letting Ben Roethlisberger get beat up. Steelers will go with Mewelde Moore at RB. Moore is a good RB out of the backfield, but was about 4th on the depth chart. Jags had to hold off the Texans at home last week (in OT), but they seem to be getting their O line together after losing both starting guards early in the season. Neither team is doing as good as expected, but it should be a good game. I'm taking the Jags at home. George takes the Steelers.

the MNF game:

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2) - Vikings LT Bryant McKinnie returned from a four-game suspension for violating the league personal conduct policy. Reports are he is in good shape, and will likely play. Good news for RB's Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Not to mention QB Gus Frerotte. But, Vikings MLB E.J. Henderson is probably out with dislocated toes. Vikings turned it over 4 times last week in a 30-17 loss at Tennessee. This is Minnesota's very D vs New Orleans very good O, with average O and D the other way around. Two good teams. This is week two on the road for the Vikings, and week two at home for the Saints. George likes the Vikings.

Brad's NFL Picks - Week Four - 2008

bradley — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 21:58:34 -0000

Only thirteen games this week, as we start the bye week thing.

Brad's Picks was 11-5 last week, on the money when Denver edged the Saints 34-32; when Tennessee beat the Texans 31-12; when Buffalo barely edged the Raiders 24-23; when Atlanta beat the Chiefs 38-14; when Washington beat the Cardinals 24-17; when the New York Giants beat the Bengals in OT 26-23; when Seattle trounced the Rams 37-13; when San Francisco beat the Lions 31-13; Baltimore bombed the Browns 28-10; when Philadelphia beat the Steelers 15-6; and when San Diego beat the Jets on MNF 48-29.

Brad's Picks missed when Minnesota beat the Panthers 20-10; when the Bucs used OT in Chicago to win 27-24; when the Dolphins exposed New England 38-13; when the Jags beat Indee 23-21; and when the Cowboys won at Lambeau for the first time ever 27-16.

Brad's Picks is 33-14 on the season.

Home teams overall were 12-4, and are 28-19 on the season. But home teams facing a visitor from the opposite coast were 3-0 as Washington beat the Cardinals; Buffalo beat the Raiders; and San Diego beat the Jets. Home teams playing a team from the opposite coast are 5-1 on the season. There is one coast to coast game this week, Cards at Jets (but the Cardinals will stay on the east coast this week after playing Wahington last Sunday).

NFC 3, AFC 1 this week. On the season, it's NFC 7, AFC 3.

George was 8-7 last week (George forgot to pick the Jags at Indiapalo game). George is 21-25 on the season.

Off this week with a bye:

Detroit; Indapoplis; Miami; New England; New York Giants; Seattle.

this week: the 11:00 MDT games:

Atlanta (2-1) at Carolina (2-1)

- Division game. Atlanta couldn't stop the Chiefs' ground game last week (184 on 33) despite an early lead (24-10 at the half), and despite the fact that the Chiefs only had 117 passing yards, and were intercepted 3 times. Panthers have a much better run game than the Chiefs, and, despite the fact that Jake Delhomme was sacked 5 times in last week's loss to Minnesota, they have a much better passing game (Vikings have a heck of a D line). Take Carolina. George will also take Carolina.

Cleveland (0-3) at Cincinnati (0-3)

- Division game. Which state has the two worse teams? Missouri with the Chiefs and Rams, or Ohio with the Browns and Bengals? The four teams are a combined 0-12. The only team of the bunch that has shown anything is the Bengals, who took the Giants to OT last week in the Meadowlands. George likes the Bengals also.

Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-2)

- Division game. Texans' QB Matt Schaub has just a 50.3 QB rating for the season. Still, they played a stout game at Tennessee, matching the Titans in every statistical category except points (in a 31-12 loss, but 7 of the Titans points came on a 99 yard pass interception return in the 4th - so the score might have been 24-19 instead of 31-12 if the pass hadn't been errant). Texans' rookie RB Steve Slayton ran for 116 on 18 carries. Jaguars, without their starting center and guards, ran for 236 yards last week at Indiaplop. QB David Garrard had a nice game last week (16-22-167-1), and the Jags D intercepted Peyton Manning two times, one of which was returned 61 yards for a TD. Texans have played the Jags tough, but the Jags seem to be adjusting to their O line injuries, and I'll take the Jaguars at home. Look for a close game though - the Colts averaged 6 per carry against the Jags last week, so Slaton might get some yards here. George also likes the Jags.

Denver (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3)

- Division game. Chiefs have scored 32 points in three games. Tyler Thigpen, the rookie QB, threw 3 INT's last week in Atlanta. Broncos have all the O any team needs (114 points in three games), and this is a good chance for the Bronco D, which has been playing hard, to do a little better. George also likes the Broncos chances.

San Francisco (2-1) at New Orleans (1-2)

- Saints TE Jeremy Shockey will have hernia surgery this week, and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Not good for the Saints, who are already without Marques Colston, their best receiver. Still, the Saints put up over five hundred yards (414 in the air) last week at Mile High (Shockey had 75 of the 414 air yards), but they still lost a shootout by just 2 points (7 of those came on a 34 yard fumble return by the Broncos' Nate Webster). Niners had some fun beating up on the Lions, but I'm taking the Saints at home - they are a solid and good team. George will take the Forty Niners.

Arizona (2-1) at New York Jets(1-2)

- This is the second game on the east coast in two weeks for the Cardinals - they played at Washington last week. They stayed on the coast for the whole week. Jets played in San Diego last Monday night, so maybe the travel thing will balance out. Favre rolled his ankle last week and was limping, but will play. Both teams have good D's, and average O's. But I'll take Kurt Warner and his two great wide receivers. Arizona. George likes the Jets.

Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1)

- Aaron Rogers was sacked 5 times by the 'Boys last Sunday night. Packers CB Charles Woodson missed the last series of the game when he aggravated his previously broken toe. Packers CB Al Harris missed the last 3 quarters with blood in his urine, and it looks like he may have ruptured his spleen. Brian Griese threw 67 passes last week in Chicago (22 straight in the 4th, as the Bucs totally abandoned the run). His 67 passes were the 5th most in league history (Drew Bledsoe holds the record with 70). At any rate, Griese brought the Bucs back from a 24-14 deficit to send the game to OT, then led a 90 yard drive to win the game. Griese spent the last couple years in the NFC North, so he knows the Packer D, and without Woodson and Harris, I'm taking the Bucs at home. George will also take the Bucs.

Minnesota (1-2) at Tennessee (3-0)

- Vikings D came alive last week, holding the high powered Panthers' O to just 10 points, sacking Jake Delhomme 5 times in the process. Titans handled the Texans 31-12, as Kerry Collins was an OK 14-26-1-189 and one TD toss (and zero sacks). Titans run game got 154 on 36 (4.3 per). Vikings run game got just 119 on 32 (3.7 per) against Carolina, but Gus Frerotte was decent (16-28-1-204 and a TD) in his start. So, two old QB's thrust into the starting spot after the promising but failing young guys got sent to the bench. Frerotte vs. Collins. Frerotte can be really streaky (he had 262 yards and 3 TD's for the Rams last year against Arizona, then the next week at Baltimore was 19-36 with zero TD's, five INT's and five turnovers). I'm taking the Titans at home. George will take the Vikings.

the 2:05 MDT games:

San Diego (1-2) at Oakland (1-2)

- Division game. San Diego crushed the Jets on MNF, while the Raiders played well at Buffalo until the last, when it counted. Chargers have lost two close games against good teams, the Raiders have only beaten the Chiefs. George will take the Raiders.

Buffalo (3-0) at St. Louis (0-3)

- The Rams have been outscored 116-29 this season. Bills have scored 78 but given up 49. Rams will start the aged Trent Green over Marc Bulger, even though Bulger is healthy, a sure sign of desperation, and the Bills are a solid team, and you gotta take them even at the dark dome. George likes the Rams at home.

the 2:15 MDT game:

Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0)

- Division game. Redskins DE Jason Taylor tipped two passes in a goal line stand in the second half in the 24-17 win over the Cardinals, but he will miss this game after having a pool of blood drained from his calf after the game. Reds QB Jason Campbell had a decent game (22-30-0-193 and two TD's) and seems to be getting the hang of the new west coast O under new coach Jim Zorn. Redskins are playing better than expected, but you gotta take the Cowboys at home. George likes the Redskins.

the 6:15 MDT game:

Philadelphia (2-1) at Chicago (1-2)

- Brian Westbrook has a bad ankle injury and is listed as day to day. Donovan McNabb has a deep bruise on his right pectoral muscle. Bears started the season with an upset at Indepolis, but have lost two since then. Eagles D looked good holding the Steelers to just 6 points, but maybe that was an exposure of the Steelers O line as not much of an O line (9 total sacks allowed). Bears' loss last week at home was to the Bucs, behind a red hot Brian Griese, but it was an OT game. Bears other loss was at Carolina in week two, another three point loss. With McNabb and Westbrook ailing, I'll take the Bears at home. George also likes the Bears.

the MNF game (6:30 MDT):

Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1)

- Eagles beat up Ben Roethlisberger last week. He had to leave the game in the 4th quarter with a right hand injury, but apparently he's OK. He's also been nursing a sore right shoulder. Ben R was sacked 8 times by the Eagles. Ravens have sacked him 17 times in the last three games, and the Steelers still had big Adam Faneca at guard for those games. Steelers O is 15th in the AFC, while the Ravens O is a surprising 5th. The 2 defenses are one and two in the AFC. Steelers RB Willie Parker will not play on Monday, so rookie Rashard Mendenhall gets the start. Steelers nose tackle Casey Hampton will also miss the game. Rookie QB Joe Flacco is playing OK for the Ravens, as the runners are averaging 190 per game. I'm taking the Ravens here. George will also take the Ravens.