Age And Projection (player development)

bravos408 — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 17:58:24 -0000

I just found out how to do this..sweet.
So I recently got into a debate with a talker of chop on here, and it turned into an age and stat issue. First off let me say I do have a lot of time around the braves. I am not a stalker, and I am not a braves die hard, (though i do love the braves). The topic was started by a prospect ranking (1-10). I got to thinking how many times these lists were wrong in projecting above average big leaguers and even if a guy was going to get to the big leagues. I look back over the years 02-07 and I think about all the guys who were in the top 10, then by the next year some were barely even in the top 20 if at all..
Why are these lists that claim guys to be the next big thing never pursued when the player goes to the toilet? The top 10 is an elite list! And why on the lists, are there always 3-4 guys that just drop out in the next year or two? I've seen
Andy Marte, Aaron Herr, Scott Thorman, Jose Capellan, Brett Evert, Dan Meyer, Ray Aguilar,Josh Burrus, Jake Stevens, Anthony Lerew, Luis Hernandez, Van Pope, Kyle Davies, Gonzalo Lopez..I mean the list goes on...And all of a sudden they are replaced by the next big thing..Its a vicious cycle. It shows a lot how the makers of the lists have no ability to project. Anywho, I started thinking about the age issue in relation to the level of play that a player is on. I use brad nelson, a 26 year old righty who has put up a career 3.29 era with an outstanding win loss record (playing at evey level except the majors, including the fall league). And then I look at guys who've struggled in the minors and still have had big league success.. Kevin Millwood, Bobby Jenks, and even John Smoltz to name a few. Lets not forget the average age to make a major league debut is 24..thats pretty old in prospect terms (even though Brandon Jones is 24 sammons-24 devine-24 lillibridge-24 manny acosta is two years older born in 81!(and still you list him very highly) dan smith-24) ..Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, and Chuck James were 24 (if you dont include chuck's 5 inning stint in the last weeks of 05). My point here is don't turn your backs on the guys who have made it to AA and AAA and are knocking on the door. My point is a 23 and 24 even 25 year old can still be a top prospects, even if they aren't on the BA top 10. Kids can still have breakout seasons in the latter stages of their minor league careers, though less likely... I'm curious to know where schafers top 10 ranking when he hit 240 or so in 06 was, and where his top 10 ranking was in the beginning of 07..Now he's #1. I've heard it said that Morton was old for the fall league and you have to question the level of competition he was playing against, there were 25 guys older than him on his team alone. He just turned 24! Playing against top prospects and guys who have already been in the big leagues...hmm I dont know. I'm not saying anything bold here, just mentioning that if the braves haven't given up on guys, why should you..and also prospect lists are poop sometimes

Poll

Is 24 too old to be a prospect?

yes

4 votes

no

43 votes

47 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation User Blog: bravos408

Age And Projection (player development)

Is 24 too old to be a prospect?

yes

no