SBNation.com User Blog: bretsayre

The Fake Teams Expert Mock Prospect Draft, Part 3 (Rounds 7-10)

bretsayre — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 02:13:05 -0000

This year, instead of posting a straight top fantasy prospects list like only boring sites do (cough, me, cough), we decided to shake things up. Zig where others zag, if you know what I mean. So we put the bat signal out for others in the industry who are both knowledgeable from both a fantasy perspective and a prospect perspective. The response was, frankly, even better than I anticipated, as you'll be able to tell by the names involved.

But first, the parameters. These are the instructions for the participants of this draft, straight from the e-mail I sent out prior to kicking it off:

The premise is very simple, we're drafting a minor league roster for a brand new dynasty league team (no one has a major league roster yet). The "league" is standard 13-team 5x5 rotisserie where you keep all players indefinitely with no contracts/salaries involved. The first rule is that any player you select must still have their prospect status. The second rule is that there are no other rules. It's just about building the type of farm system you would want to start from scratch with.

Just 13 guys drafting 10 minor leaguers a piece to start a dynasty league roster with. And the most fun part about this exercise is that with all of the picks, I asked each "owner" to write a quick comment on why they were taking the player. The result of this is not a precise list by any means, but a great representation of how minor league players are valued for fantasy across the industry.

So without any further ado, here are the first three rounds of the Fake Teams Expert Mock Prospect Draft:

Round 7

Pick 7.1 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - Lewis Brinson (OF/TEX)

"Lewis Brinson is very young and he's a 5-tool potential player. According to people who've seen him those tools aren't as raw as anticipated on draft day. It's still early, but he's a riser for me. I think he's someone who can make big jumps up prospect lists in the next two years."

Pick 7.2 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Alex Meyer (SP/MIN)

"I'll go with Alex Meyer. A huge guy, his height may actually work against him control wise with all those moving parts, but a repertoire that is designed to generate both strikeouts and groundballs gives him frontline upside. Still a bit raw, but calling Target Field home will help his fantasy prospects if he can make good on his upside and rise through the minors to reach Minnesota."

Pick 7.3 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - Wily Peralta (SP/MLW)

"I'm not thrilled about taking another pitcher, but I'm going best prospect available, and right now that's Milwaukee right-gander Wily Peralta. Peralta is that rare combination of upside (I am still a believer in his #2 starter ceiling) and proximity (he should start the year in the Brewers rotation). He's built to throw a ton of innings and he can keep the ball on the ground."

Pick 7.4 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Jorge Bonifacio (OF/KC)

"I'm staying away from the pitching prospects, and in keeping with that theme, my next choice is the Royals right fielder of the future-Jorge Bonafacio. Bonafacio is the younger brother of Blue Jays utility man Emilio Bonafacio, but he got all the power in the family. He could be a middle of the order hitter down the road."

PIck 7.5 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Brad Miller (SS/SEA)

"Gotta go with Brad Miller, INF, Seattle Mariners. I love his bat, and there is at least a fair chance he can stick at shortstop."

Pick 7.6 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Luis Heredia (SP/PIT)

"I'll shoot for the moon and select Luis Heredia, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates. He's years away, but the upside is immense. I lack impact arms in my farm system and he's the SP that I've identified with the most upside still on the board."

Pick 7.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - Wilmer Flores (3B/NYM)

"I'll take the gamble on the bat, and defense doesn't matter in fantasy if they trot him out at 2B."

Pick 7.8 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Stryker Trahan (C/ARZ)

"I'm going to reach a little here and bypass the highest rated player on my board in favor of Trahan. He produced big numbers in rookie ball, showing an advanced approach at the plate and good power. He's no lock to stay at catcher, especially if his bat stays this far ahead of his glove. When I see Trahan, I see Wil Myers in that his bat could force him out from catcher and to the outfield, where Trahan has the athleticism to survive. He's not the same athlete as Myers, and he doesn't have the same hit tool, but he could have more power. I should probably opt for more developed talent but eyes get big when I see upside like Trahan's available."

Pick 7.9 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - James Paxton (SP/SEA)

"Paxton should contribute to the Mariners this season, pitch in SAFECO and miss bats in spades making him a valuable asset. He struggled at times last year, but it's easy to see why a knee injury would substantially affect his high leg kick delivery and subsequently his balance and release point. When he's healthy and staying on top of the ball, he can be a force."

Pick 7.10 - Mike Newman, ROTOScouting/FanGraphs - Roman Quinn (SS/PHI)

"If Billy Hamilton was the top player taken in this mock draft, then Roman Quinn might be a first rounder in 2015. Quinn scouted with nearly as much pop, speed and better defensive chops than Hamilton as a teenager. Ready for his first taste of full season baseball, I can't think of a better breakout candidate at a more premium position available."

Pick 7.11 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Joey Gallo (3B/TEX)

"My literal reaction to Roman Quinn being snatched away form me: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31g0YE61PLQ -- I guess this is Mike's payback for me taking Baez in the first. That was quite a punch to the gut (as was the Stryker Trahan pick a few turns ago), but I will settle for Joey Gallo, 3B, Tex. Strikeouts/youth/position/risk blah blah blah, dude hits the ball far."

Pick 7.12 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Yordano Ventura (SP/KC)

"I usually shy from pitchers with Ventura's profile -- hard-throwing yet undersized -- but at this stage, it's too tempting to have an arm with legitimate triple-digit heat who could be a strikeout monster if he stays in the rotation or a future closer if he doesn't."

PIck 7.13 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - Richie Shaffer (3B/TB)

Round 8

PIck 8.1 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - Allen Webster (SP/BOS)

Pick 8.2 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Kyle Parker (OF/COL)

"The one thing my imaginary dynasty crew lacks is a real power bat, a role that Parker should fill, especially once he gets to Coors Field (likely some time in 2014). The 23-year-old 2010 first-rounder, who was once Clemson's starting QB, has smashed 21 and 23 homers the past two seasons and is ready for Double-A. What really seals the deal is how Parker took his plate discipline up a couple notches in 2012, improving both his K rate (19%, down from 26%) and his walk rate (14%, up from 9%) simultaneously."

Pick 8.3 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Kyle Gibson (SP/MIN)

"I've been high on Gibson since he was drafted and the reports of his post-TJ velocity have me very encouraged that he can be the No. 3 starter I've long envisioned. Put someone with his stuff and profile in the offensive-depressing environment that is Target Field, and you've got a solid piece for a Fantasy rotation. I really wanted Allen Webster here and was intrigued by some position players who I feel have fallen too far, but I needed to grab another arm, and Gibson will produce for me immediately."

Pick 8.4 - Mike Newman, ROTOScouting/FanGraphs - Nick Franklin (SS/SEA)

"I tried to reason my way out of selecting Nick Franklin here, but could not. He may never become a star, but Franklin is close to ready, plays the middle infield and projects for above average power for second base or shortstop."

Pick 8.5 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - Joe Ross (SP/SD)

"I've been lucky enough to have a lot of players I rate highly fall to me and I'm ecstatic to get Joe Ross, SP, SD here. He's insanely athletic and has front of the rotation stuff. He battled injury last year, but he's going to explode up prospect charts by midseason."

Pick 8.6 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Jonathan Schoop (2B/BAL)

"Since I couldn't talk J.D. out of taking Ross, I'm going to stick with the bats and select Jonathan Schoop, 2B/3B, BAL. Schoop's numbers aren't pretty but the Orioles have been aggressive with him. Hopefully they send him back to Double-A last year so we can see how he adjusts to the level. He's got a swing that portends power, though the utility of his power will be determined by the hit tool. Defensively I think he profiles best at 3rd where his power will play, but on the off chance he sticks at 2nd, the power would be above average. I was looking to take a high upside arm at this point given that I only have one, and he may be a reliever, but I'm happy to keep taking potential impact infield bats this late in the draft."

Pick 8.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - C.J. Cron (1B/LAA)

Pick 8.8 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Jorge Alfaro (C/TEX)

"Schoop is who I had initially planned on taking, but since he's gone, I'll select my first catcher, Jorge Alfaro of the Rangers. There is a big gap between what he is presently and what he could become, so I'll have to be patient, but the potential payoff is a catcher with above average power and offense."

PIck 8.9 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Tony Cingrani (SP/CIN)

"At this point, I have one major league ready pitcher in Skaggs and one long-distance major league pitching prospect with Crick. Looking for another arm, my eyes drift to another near-ready lefty to pair with Skaggs: LHP Tony Cingrani of the Cincinnati Reds."

Pick 8.10 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Justin Nicolino (SP/TOR)

"OK, since I have just one pitcher on my roster, I will take Justin Nicolino of the Miami Marlins. He recently got comps to Cole Hamels, and if he is just short of that, he will be a solid major league starter, especially in the spacious Marlins Park. He is the owner of a sick changeup and projects to be a No. 3 or 4 starter in the big leagues, with a chance to be more."

Pick 8.11 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - Gary Brown (OF/SF)

"I'm tired of taking pitchers, so I'm going to take the best hitter available on my board. The season started out really rough for Gary Brown, but he turned it around, hitting .315/.356/.452 from mid-June. I think the hate has gone a little too far on Brown, who can still be a solid fantasy player even if he's a second-division baseball player. And for me, there's still a non-zero chance that he can be the player we thought he could be at this time last year."

Pick 8.12 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Michael Choice (OF/OAK)

"Choice lost part of his 2012 to injury, but he still had a solid year and has exciting tools, most prominently power that could make him a middle-of-the-rotation threat. Yeah, he'll strike out a lot, but his hit tool isn't as bad as those strikeouts indicate, and he is even capable of throwing in a few steals."

Pick 8.13 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - D.J. Davis (OF/TOR)

Round 9

Pick 9.1 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - Zach Lee (SP/LAD)

Pick 9.2 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Jarred Cosart (SP/HOU)

"I'll take Jared Cosart and hope he sticks as a starter. There's certainly no guarantee of that, but he has the stuff for it. Of course, his delivery will cause command issues, and there are questions with pitchability, but he at least has the body and repertoire to potentially be a front-of-the-line starter. And even if he winds up in the bullpen, there exists a decent chance he'll be able to make it as a closer."

Pick 9.3 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - John Lamb (SP/KC)

"For the second pick in a row, I'm going to take a guy who is being overlooked this year. John Lamb may have missed nearly all of the 2012 season, but he still has the upside of a #2 starter, albeit with more risk this time around. It's still been only 18 months since the surgery, and Lamb was a top-25 prospect prior to the injury."

Pick 9.4 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Arodys Vizcaino (RP/CHC)

"With my next pick I will taken former top pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino. Coming off TJS, he has a shot to put his name back into the minds of fantasy owners in 2013. If he can't start, then the closer job awaits in Chicago."

PIck 9.5 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Michael Wacha (SP/STL)

Pick 9.6 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Matt Adams (1B/STL)

"The bat is the name of the game in fake baseball (unless you're a pitcher of course) so I'll go with a guy who's value is tied entirely to his bat, Matt Adams 1B St. Louis Cardinals. He makes for yet another guy that's big league ready on my farm system, though, he's blocked at the big league level."

Pick 9.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - A.J. Cole (SP/WSH)

Pick 9.8 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Blake Swihart (C/BOS)

"Since Spencer just sniped my anticipated pick, I'll have to switch up my strategy. I'm light on arms, but I'm not competing with this squad, just building as much value as I can. I would assume I'd be able to trade that stored up value in the future. With all of that said, I'll take another A ball bat, Blake Swihart, C, BOS. Swihart started off very slowly but really began to put things together in the second half. He carries a ton of risk given how raw he is, but the opportunity to get a switch hitting catcher who has the potential for average power and a plus hit tool is just too tempting. Patience will be key with Swihart, but I believe his value makes him a worthy selection this late in the game."

Pick 9.9 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - Chris Stratton (SP/SF)

"I considered Josh Bell here, but after reading Jeff Reese, Bullpen Banter's NCAA Baseball expert, discuss Stratton, I had to get him. Stratton made strides year after year in college and flashed three above average offerings with room for growth. Plus, it's hard to argue against the San Francisco Giants' record of developing pitchers."

Pick 9.10 - Mike Newman, ROTOScouting/FanGraphs - Domingo Tapia (SP/NYM)

"With one of the biggest fastballs in minor league baseball, I saw Domingo Tapia touch 98/99 last season with heavy sink. He has too high a ceiling to pass on this late, and I prefer to spend later picks on players scouted in person."

Pick 9.11 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Luis Sardinas (SS/TEX)

"I'm going to go for Sardinas -- I've taken enough high-probability guys recently that I can roll the dice here, and I think Sardinas would get a lot more attention in a system with less shortstop depth. I wish he'd stay on the field more, of course, but 2012 was a step in the right direction and if he can use his speed to become a better baserunner I likely just picked up a starting Fantasy SS in round 9."

Pick 9.12 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Max Kepler (OF/MIN)

"Easily the player furthest from the majors that I've selected, Kepler just turned 20 last week. Last year in his second go-round in the Appy League, he started to unlock some of the power that his still -projectable 6'4" frame suggests his lefty swing possesses, knocking 10 homers as part of 31 extra-base hits in 59 games. Long and lean -- he's the son of ballet dancers! -- Kepler should head to full-season ball, where we could see a real breakout. Getting in on the ground floor."

PIck 9.13 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - Roberto Osuna (SP/TOR)

"Osuna spent last year as a 17 year old split between the Appy League and the Northwest League, holding his own to the tune of a 49/15 K/BB ratio in 43 innings. I like him because he could move quickly, and at this point in the draft still has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter if everything works out."

Round 10

PIck 10.1 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - Josh Bell (OF/PIT)

"Purely an upside play here, as Bell missed most of the season due to a knee injury. That said, he was considered practically unsignable when he was drafted by the Pirates, which was one of the main reasons he fell out of the top 10. The biggest issue for him now becomes that he is already 20, but has only played 15 games as a pro. Add in that he was considered raw at the time, and I could be waiting a long time for this pick to pan out."

Pick 10.2 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Marcell Ozuna (OF/MIA)

"This is the seventh hitter in my last eight selections, but pitchers are easier to find in fantasy, so I'll pass up the handful of still-available quality young arms to land a guy who might hit 30 homers in the majors, as long as he can address his contact problems. Ozuna will likely start out at Double-A and play all of 2013 at 22, having hit 22 then 23 then 24 homers the past three seasons. I nearly took him in Rounds 7, 8 and 9, so I'm happy to grab him with my final pick."

Pick 10.3 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Maikel Franco (3B/PHI)

"Well, crap. I literally had my Ozuna pick already written up, thought there was no way he'd get snatched like that. Should've known better. At the risk of going a little 3B heavy, I'll grab Maikel Franco, 3B, PHI, and hope his approach is good enough for the plus power to play. Also, as I said on Twitter a few days ago, I had Franco's exact profile in independent league high school baseball and feel a special connection to all slow third basemen who don't strike out a lot. I am sad I don't have anymore picks."

Pick 10.4 - Mike Newman, ROTOScouting/FanGraphs - Jairo Beras (OF/TEX)

"I'll take Jairo Beras because he just seems like a guy who should be taken by now."

Pick 10.5 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - Manny Banuelos (SP/NYY)

"He probably won't pitch in 2013, but prior to his injury he had a mid 90s fastball with decent arm side run, a curveball that he could bury when he was ahead of the count (read: can't throw for strikes consistently) and a very good change up. It's hard to say how he'll look when he returns from Tommy John surgery, but absolutely worth a late flyer here."

Pick 10.6 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Jesse Biddle (SP/PHI)

"I wasn't a fan of Biddle entering last season, when he produced strong results despite some diminished stuff. During 2012 however, Biddle regained some velo and in my mind has re-established himself as a potential #2/3 pitcher if everything breaks right. His curve is a potential plus pitch he compliments with with a high 80s/low 90s fastball, a solid change and has recently added a slider and two-seam fastball to his repertoire. I think there's value here even if he falls short of his ceiling, as he is built to log plenty of innings, standing 6'4/225 lbs."

Pick 10.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - Andrew Toles (OF/TB)

"With my last pick I wanted to go with a guy I really liked who is under-the-radar."

Pick 10.8 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Josh FIelds (RP/HOU)

"Alright, I'm going to go off the board again. The player I'm selecting most likely wouldn't be in my top 250 dynasty prospects. However, because this is the last round, and I'm operating under the assumption we would be able to add/drop/promote prospects from our farm system throughout the year, I'll take a guy who could possibly contribute this year. I'll select Josh Fields of the Houston Astros. Poor control in the Dominican Winter League is a concern, but it was only six innings. He had a strong year in the upper minors, spending most of it in Double-A, but also succeeding in 13.2 innings in Triple-A. The Astros selected him 1.1 in the Rule Five draft, and I believe he could see save chances this year. Jose Veras is the front runner to break camp as the closer, but that doesn't mean he'll be closing for the Astros all year. If Veras struggles due to poor control, he could be supplanted. Conversely, if he pitches really well, it would make sense for a rebuilding Astros squad to deal him. Finally, by selecting a potential save source for 2013 in this draft, it gives me flexibility in the active roster portion of the draft."

PIck 10.9 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Joc Pederson (OF/LAD)

"I have to go with the across-the-board skills of Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers, who should be a fantasy contributor in more than one category."

Pick 10.10 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Cheslor Cuthbert (3B/KC)

"With my last pick, I am going to grab a guy who had plenty of love last year at this time, but struggled in a big way in 2012. Royals third base prospect Cheslor Cuthbert will probably repeat High A in 2013, but that may be all he needs to gain some confidence to begin the ascent to stardom."

Pick 10.11 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - Jeimer Candelario (3B/CHC)

"My last pick is my breakout hitter for 2013: Cubs 3B Jeimer Candelario. He'll get his first taste of full-season ball this coming season, and I expect him to build off his solid stint in the Northwest League. He has the potential to hit for both average and power."

Pick 10.12 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Dan Straily (SP/OAK)

"I actually had the same thought as Josh. Assuming I can replenish after promoting him, I'll take Dan Straily"

Pick 10.13 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - Rob Brantly (C/MIA)

"He's instant production for my team because he's already in the majors (Bauer and Hamilton my only other picks that will sniff the bigs this year). In 31 games last year he hit .290 after he was acquired in the Anibal Sanchez trade. He makes solid contact, but there's no power here. It looks like he's only going to face righties as he's the strong side of a platoon with Jeff Mathis (noble work the Marlins are doing). That should help keep his batting average up and that's rare to get from a catcher."

I hope you enjoyed this series. I'd be remiss not to mention that this will be my last post here at Fake Teams. I don't need to tell you readers how great the content is here and it's because of the dedication and knowledge of the entire staff of writers. So even though I won't be an ongoing part of it, I'll still be reading and learning along with the rest of you. And if that's not enough and you want to continue to find my stuff on the interwebs, you can find me at Baseball Prospectus and my personal site, The Dynasty Guru. So don't be a stranger.

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The Fake Teams Expert Mock Prospect Draft, Part 2 (Rounds 4-6)

bretsayre — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:24:24 -0000

But first, the parameters. These are the instructions for the participants of this draft, straight from the e-mail I sent out prior to kicking it off:

The premise is very simple, we're drafting a minor league roster for a brand new dynasty league team (no one has a major league roster yet). The "league" is standard 13-team 5x5 rotisserie where you keep all players indefinitely with no contracts/salaries involved. The first rule is that any player you select must still have their prospect status. The second rule is that there are no other rules. It's just about building the type of farm system you would want to start from scratch with.

So without any further ado, here are the next three rounds of the Fake Teams Expert Mock Prospect Draft:

Round 4

PIck 4.1 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - Gary Sanchez (C/NYY)

"This pick had a bit more to do with positional scarcity, as there is a big gap between Sanchez and the next catcher in the rankings. Sanchez rebounded in 2012, reaching High-A and hitting 18 home runs with a .290/.344/.485 slash line. The biggest positive to me was that many of the reports pointed toward his make up issues being substantially better this year. He has the upside to be a top 5 fantasy catcher who provides a high batting average and power in the Majors."

Pick 4.2 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Gregory Polanco (OF/PIT)

"Easily the rawest of my first four picks, Polanco is still at least two-plus years away from the majors and will need to prove his 2012 breakout is for real. The lefty-swinger hit .325/.388/.522 as a 20-year-old in A-ball and is not only super speedy (40 SBs in 2012) but also sinewy strong (16 HRs). Risky yet intriguing, given that Polanco could turn into a potential 20-30 type if he stays the course."

Pick 4.3 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Rymer Liriano (OF/SD)

"After taking Olt for probability, I'm going with one of my personal favorites in Rymer Liriano, OF, SD. Not a sure thing, but his tools are dreamy and I think he has upside as a (2009-2010) Nelson Cruz-like Fantasy asset. I would've considered Brian Goodwin here too, but Bret doesn't like to share."

Pick 4.4 - Mike Newman, RotoScouting/FanGraphs - Danny Hultzen (SP/SEA)

"I don't know what happened to Hultzen's command, but I've seen enough of him to have faith regardless of the walk totals. While opposing owners reach for sexy upside in Single-A, I'll "settle" for a surefire fantasy 2/3 who's close to contributing at the MLB level."

Pick 4.5 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - George Springer (OF/HOU)

"Don't know why George Springer doesn't get love. The University of Connecticut has been able to make major adjustments year after year - if you saw his swing in college, that would be obvious - and I believe he will continue to do so. His elite athleticism makes him a major threat on the bases (36 steals in 128 games) in addition to his notable power (24 home runs in the same period). If his batting average can stay above .250 he'll avoid the dreaded Chris Young comp and could be a 30/30 stud. Sexy upside."

Pick 4.6 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Carlos Martinez (SP/STL)

"It seems like it's time for me to take an arm... so why not go with a guy MLB-N says is going to be the next Pedro...Carlos Martinez, SP, STL. I love Martinez's pure stuff and while there are doubts as to whether he holds up as a starter, he'll be nails in relief as well. Very happy to get an arm of his quality this deep."

Pick 4.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - Bubba Starling (OF/KC)

"Much to the dismay (or joy I guess) of Mike, I'm gonna buy my lottery ticket and take Bubba Starling. I was fortunate enough to see Starling play 10 or so times this year, and am convinced that if he can iron out his swing, that he will be a big league regular at worst, with a superstar being his perfect-world projection."

Pick 4.8 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Chris Archer (SP/TB)

"I'm going to venture into the danger zone and select Chris Archer, starting pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays. He's had struggles with control, but his slider is dirty and he has plenty of arm strength. The stuff is good enough to pile up strikeouts, and when he's on (as he was September 8 against the Rangers) he can be downright dominant. A fall back as a dynamic high leverage reliever is comforting, and I expect him to be useful this year at some point. Not the flashiest pick, but I'm happy taking him here."

PIck 4.9 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Yasiel Puig (OF/LAD)

"So far I have invested in players ready for or fairly close to the majors. I need more long-term upside and few players left on the board have as much upside as Los Angeles Dodgers Cuban import outfielder Yasiel Puig. He's got some risk too but he is simply too tempting at this point in the draft to pass up."

Pick 4.10 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Corey Seager (3B/LAD)

"I tried to talk myself out of this pick, because he has yet to play a full season of ball, but I am going to follow John's lead and take the 2nd best Dodgers prospect, third baseman Corey Seager. He's a smooth swinging shortstop with power, and could eventually move to third base. No matter, he will hit for power and be the third baseman the Dodgers thought they had in Andy LaRoche about 5-6 years ago."

Pick 4.11 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - Casey Kelly (SP/SD)

"I'm going to use this opportunity to grab my first pitcher, and one whose bandwagon I never tire of driving. He may not have the flashy upside of some of the pitchers who went in the first three rounds, but Casey Kelly has all the ingredients to be a very solid #3 starter (or #2 if you really squint), and he'll be with the Padres in very short order. He's athletic, shows above average stuff across the board and has a strong command profile. Plus, pitching half his games in PETCO won't hurt either."

Pick 4.12 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Mason Williams (OF/NYY)

"Mason Williams was an easy pick here, and a guy I was hoping would fall. He has excellent speed with a plus hit tool. With even moderate power, which most scouts think is fairly likely (especially in Yankee Stadium), he could be a major force. I could easily see him leading off for the Yankees and possessing tons of fantasy value."

Pick 4.13 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - Jake Marisnick (OF/MIA)

"I was all set to take Williams and Derek pops him a pick before me. I'll settle for a pair of former Lansing Lugnuts and take Jake Marisnick and Aaron Sanchez."

Round 5

Pick 5.1 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - Aaron Sanchez (SP/TOR)

Pick 5.2 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Trevor Story (SS/COL)

"Trevor Story is a high-risk pick, as his highest exposure came at Low-A ball this year, but he has good tools and figures to stick at shortstop. His speed is merely average, but he could hit for above average power by shortstop standards, and his quick bat should help him with batting average. A player at a scarce position who can hit for average with double-digit steals and homers, playing in Coors Field, is very valuable."

Pick 5.3 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - Max Fried (SP/SD)

"With my pick I'm going to stay in San Diego and take my favorite pitcher from the 2012 draft, left-hander Max Fried. He's got everything you look for in a prep pitcher: plus stuff, pitchability, repeatable mechanics and a strong, athletic frame. On top of that, his curveball is a sight to behold."

Pick 5.4 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Tyler Austin (OF/NYY)

"The Yankees have several solid hitting prospects and outfielder Tyler Austin is one of them. Austin, a former 13th round pick, hits for power, gets on base and can steal a few bases as well. I look forward to watching him at AA Trenton this summer."

PIck 5.5 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Kyle Crick (SP/SF)

"I need a pitcher at this point in the draft, and Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants seems to offer tremendous upside along with a strong 2012 performance to back up the scouting reports."

Pick 5.6 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Aaron Hicks (OF/MIN)

Pick 5.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - Matt Barnes (SP/BOS)

Pick 5.8 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Oswaldo Arcia (OF/MIN)

"I'm going to go with the teammate of the much beloved Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, RF, MIN. The 21-year old split the season between Hi-A and Double-A and hit for average and for power. Given Minnesota dealing away two of their starting outfielders in the offseason, I don't consider it unreasonable for Arcia to make his debut at some point this year. He's not as toolsy as Hicks, but I think he can flat out hit, and actually like him better for fantasy. I think he's a high 5 player in the majors and can get there as soon as this year."

Pick 5.9 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - Kyle Zimmer (SP/KC)

"I'll reluctantly take my first pitcher, as I have Zimmer ranked nearly forty spots higher than where I'm getting him in this draft. He's certainly more talented and polished than many of the players taken before this spot, but maybe the Royals' track record has been a deterrent. I stay clear of pitchers because they can only contribute in four categories and park factors, defense and overall team ability have far too much influence on one's ERA, Wins and WHIP. Still, I can't pass up on this kind of talent here."

Pick 5.10 - Mike Newman, RotoScouting/FanGraphs - Julio Teheran (SP/ATL)

"After a rough 2012, the prospect world has dismissed Julio Teheran as a has been. Ask yourself this? If I offered you a 21-year old pitcher who's being handed the #5 starter role on a silver platter after multiple dominant minor league seasons, would you take him? I thought so."

Pick 5.11 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Lucas Giolito (SP/WSH)

"Went out last night after seeing Spencer's pick and thought, "oh good, one of Barnes, Teheran or Arcia will definitely fall to me!" Drafting with the big boys sucks sometimes. For Plan D, I'll go with the ultimate risk/reward pitcher in Lucas Giolito, who I'll have to wait forever for but who I think has among the highest upside in the minors. The Nats have had success rehabbing high-upside guys back from TJ surgery too (the media may have covered this once or twice), so that makes me feel a little better. I'll wait to grab a closer to the majors pitcher or batter with the wraparound pick."

Pick 5.12 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Kolten Wong (2B/STL)

"Yikes, a whole bunch of players I was hoping would fall to me -- Story, Barnes, Arcia -- didn't. So I'm going to go with Wong, who is a rarity as a "second base prospect." The 2011 first-rounder is just 22 and has already made it through Double-A, where he continued to show a solid all-around game. He won't be a superstar, but he should debut in 2013 and be the long-term answer for a Cardinals club that hasn't had a legitimate second baseman since, uh, Fernando Vina. Wong should work his way to the top of the lineup, where he'll hit for average, steal bases and pile up runs for an offense that looks scary-good for the foreseeable future."

PIck 5.13 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - Taylor Guerrieri (SP/TB)

"Guerrieri fell in his draft to the late first round due to makeup concerns, but those concerns have been largely resolved after his first short season assignment. He has an excellent fastball, a very good curveball, and a working change up already. Add in excellent ground ball rates and excellent control, and excellent numbers in the NY-Penn League already, and he could be at least a #3 starter."

Round 6

PIck 6.1 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - Robert Stephenson (SP/CIN)

"Stephenson finished the season at Low-A, but the scouting reports point to a pitcher who has already shown advanced repertoire including an excellent fastball, along with a solid curveball and change up. It sounds like he is another pitcher who, while raw, has the potential to be a #2 starter as well. He seems likely to return to Low-A to start next season, but it wouldn't surprise me if he finished up the year as high as AA depending on the Reds' desire for him to avoid Bakersfield."

Pick 6.2 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Kaleb Cowart (3B/LAA)

"Having just selected the Cards' future solution at second base, I'll grab the Angels' answer to their long-standing problem at third base. Cowart, 20, had a mini-breakout while reaching High-A in 2012, hitting .276 with career-bests in homers (16) and doubles (31), which suggests he has more power in him. Cowart should be ready to join Albert, Mike and Josh in the hit parade by the start of 2015."

Pick 6.3 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Adam Eaton (OF/ARZ)

Pick 6.4 - Mike Newman, RotoScouting/FanGraphs - Courtney Hawkins (OF/CHW)

"High school draft picks simply don't do what Courtney Hawkins did in 2012. In rising from rookie ball to High-A in a couple of months, the outfielder displayed both in game power and speed. After taking a couple of pitchers on the cusp of big league rotations, it was time to shoot the moon."

Pick 6.5 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - Jackie Bradley Jr (OF/BOS)

"For fantasy purposes, I would have preferred Courtney Hawkins here, but Bradley isn't a slouch. Bradley projects as a top of the order hitter who will score a lot of runs, hit for average, and steal bases. His RBI total probably won't be high, but I'd expect a future Red Sox lineup to be strong enough to keep his numbers afloat. He doesn't project for a lot of power, but his bat has developed enough that a fully healed wrist could produce average or better numbers."

Pick 6.6 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Eddie Rosario (2B/MIN)

"I'm going to dip my toe back into those chilly Minnesota waters and select Eddie Rosario, 2B, MIN. I'm a Rosario believer, in that I think he can hit well enough that Minnesota will live with his defense at 2nd. Ideally I'd like to take someone a little closer to the majors given my other picks, but Rosario has a legitimate bat at what is generally a weak position. He has legitimate power for second base, though it's less for home runs and more for slugging percentage. The biggest risk for this pick is that if Rosario isn't a second baseman, he's not worth much in fantasy. That's not what I necessarily want out of my 5th rounder, but he's the best value left on my board."

Pick 6.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - Matt Davidson (3B/ARZ)

"Buxton has a huge ceiling, but a lot of work to do. If he pans out he could be among the top fantasy performers year and in and year out while also playing a premium position."

Pick 6.8 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Bruce Rondon (RP/DET)

"I'll break the ice, and I swear this isn't the alcohol talking. I love an 80 fastball, even in the pen. I drafted immediate help in the first, and more near ready help with Chris Archer. Next up is, Bruce Rondon. Give me saves and strikeouts, and give them to me now. He's got the best body in baseball in the Jermaine Wiggins has the best body in the NFL sort of way, but he pumps out triple digit heat and will be closing soon (hopefully this year). Instant gratification is the best, and I'll take help to my mythical 2013 roster."

PIck 6.9 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Dorssys Paulino (SS/CLE)

"He is a long way off, but his tools and high ceiling stand out as a middle infielder, therefore I'll go with Cleveland Indians shortstop prospect Dorsyss Paulino."

Pick 6.10 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Austin Hedges (C/SD)

"Pitching prospects be damned, I am taking another hitter. This time, I am taking a guy who plays behind the dish, and has a little pop to go along with excellent defensive skills. He has plenty of development years ahead of him, but my choice is Padres catcher Austin Hedges."

Pick 6.11 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - Dan Vogelbach (1B/CHC)

"Some men were just put on this earth to hit and Dan Vogelbach is one of those men. As a 19-year old, Vogelbach tore up the AZL (yawn), but then ascended to the college-heavy Northwest League (a much lower offensive environment) and continued his assault, hitting .322/.423/.608 with 10 HR in 143 AB. As a fantasy owner, I don't care that he'll probably max out defensively as a below-average 1B -- he has elite upside as a power hitter who can also hit for average."

Pick 6.12 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Adalberto Mondesi (SS/KC)

"I'll take Adalberto Mondesi. He's young and years away, but he's also super atheltic and toolsy. He plays shortstop -- shocker that I'm taking another one -- and has the defensive chops to stick. More importantly, though, is that he has an easy swing that will allow him to hit for a high batting average if he develops as expected. He's also a fast runner, and some even project him to develop some power. I have a general preference for high upside guys, especially as we're getting deeper into the draft, and Mondesi fits the bill."

Pick 6.13 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - Slade Heathcott (OF/NYY)

"I'm just going to continue to take toolsy outfielders."

Stay tuned for the final installment, Rounds 7-10, tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.
Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru.

The Fake Teams Expert Mock Prospect Draft, Part 1 (Rounds 1-3)

bretsayre — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 23:32:33 -0000

But first, the parameters. These are the instructions for the participants of this draft, straight from the e-mail I sent out prior to kicking it off:

The premise is very simple, we're drafting a minor league roster for a brand new dynasty league team (no one has a major league roster yet). The "league" is standard 13-team 5x5 rotisserie where you keep all players indefinitely with no contracts/salaries involved. The first rule is that any player you select must still have their prospect status. The second rule is that there are no other rules. It's just about building the type of farm system you would want to start from scratch with.

So without any further ado, here are the first three rounds of the Fake Teams Expert Mock Prospect Draft:

Round 1

Pick 1.1 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - Billy Hamilton (OF/CIN)

"I can almost hear all of you groaning as I type this. I first saw Hamilton in early 2011 in the Midwest League and I've been a huge fan ever since. The only thing he does faster than he runs is talk. But, you guys know all that. I really only considered one other guy here and I'm sure he'll be off the board in short order."

Pick 1.2 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Jurickson Profar (SS/TEX)

"Jurickson Profar was the top player on my board, so I was thrilled to see him available to me at my pick. He plays a scarce position and projects to stick in the middle infield for years to come, is close to the majors already, and has the tools to hit for both average and power while stealing bases. Easy pick."

Pick 1.3 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - Oscar Taveras (OF/STL)

"Not a tough decision for me here, as I get to grab my #2 prospect (next to Profar). Oscar Taveras may not get a ton of playing time in 2013, but he has the potential to be a very special hitter."

Pick 1.4 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Xander Bogaerts (SS/BOS)

"I will take Xander Bogaerts, a guy who could be the next great hitting SS. Until he moves to 3B. :)"

PIck 1.5 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Mike Zunino (C/SEA)

"Hmmm....hitting or pitching....pitching or hitting.... On the positional scarcity theory, I will go with Mike Zunino."

Pick 1.6 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Wil Myers (OF/TB)

"I can't resist a potential middle of the order hitter that should help my fantasy team in 2013 should I choose to call him up (hypothetically speaking of course)."

Pick 1.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - Dylan Bundy (SP/BAL)

"I'll be swift and select Dylan Bundy. Made it to the Bigs in his first full year out of high school, could be in the rotation to stay by the end of the year. Legit #1 potential. Breaking my 'pitchers are scary' rule for this one. Considered d'Arnaud here."

Pick 1.8 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Nick Castellanos (3B/DET)

"I feel like I'm in a weird spot here but I'm going to go with the best bat left in my opinion with Nick Castellanos. I believe the power will come eventually and he should be a third baseman so there's positional value as well."

Pick 1.9 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - Travis d'Arnaud (C/NYM)

"I'll happily take Travis D'Arnaud. While a catcher plays less, a successful team needs at least two catchers. So while he may have less value compared to an everyday player, he has more value over replacement level because of scarcity at C (you have 26 catchers playing in a 13 team league as opposed to 13 shortstops). It's a double edged sword, but I like taking a catcher early."

Pick 1.10 - Mike Newman, ROTOScouting/FanGraphs - Taijuan Walker (SP/SEA)

"I never recommend drafting a pitcher in the first round of a prospect draft, but overdrafts have left me no choice. Taijuan Walker should have gone in the top-6, so I'm thrilled to have him fall in my lap here. He's the second best pitching prospect I've seen in person. Number one is already off the board."

Pick 1.11 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Gerrit Cole (SP/PIT)

"Similar to what Mike said: I'd rather take a position player here, but I don't really see one worth taking (although a few do tempt me), so I'm going with Gerrit Cole, who I consider to be the second-best SP prospect in the minors. I saw Cole in Portland this summer and he made me feel feelings again, taking a perfect game into the 5th. I'll live with the occasional clunker in order to benefit from all the 200-plus K seasons."

Pick 1.12 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Shelby Miller (SP/STL)

"The run on arms continues. Long one of baseball's top prospects, Miller looked lost halfway through 2012, but everything clicked back into place in mid-July, after which he returned to his dominant self, throwing 59.1 innings with a 2.88 ERA and a ridiculous 70:7 K:BB. The hard-throwing righty, who will still be 22 for most of the 2013 season, also made his MLB debut and looked just as good, so we already have an idea that he can pitch in the bigs."

PIck 1.13 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - Zack Wheeler (SP/NYM)

"Wheeler cemented his status as a top prospect last season, reaching AAA while striking out a batter per inning and posting a 45% ground ball rate as well. The scouting reports on Wheeler point toward a pitcher who has the potential to have 4 average or better pitches. We ranked him in our consensus rankings as our #2 pitching prospect, and he is the top pitcher remaining on my list."

Round 2

PIck 2.1 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - Addison Russell (SS/OAK)

"Yes, this is a complete homer pick. But Russell is a prospect who advanced quickly after signing, has shown the potential to be an impact talent at the plate while providing both power and speed and the potential to stay at the position. Is he the 14th best player available? No. But will he be there at pick #39? Doubtful. I'd rather take the chance on him a bit earlier given how long until I have my next pick."

Pick 2.2 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Jose Fernandez (SP/MIA)

"After taking a pitcher in Round 1, I had my eye on one particular hitter who should come off the board shortly, but Fernandez is closer to the bigs, and thus more of a sure thing. Whoever said, "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect," hasn't seen this 20-year-old Cuban-born right-hander. Fernandez's prototypical power arsenal and thick-trunked physique will help him not only dominate but also gobble up innings, so his elite rate stats (1.75 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 10.6 K/9) will carry even more weight. He's not quite the prospect that Dylan Bundy is, but his 2012 numbers compare favorably across the board."

Pick 2.3 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Javier Baez (SS/CHC)

"After taking an MLB-ready pitcher with my first selection, I'm going to go with the high-upside position player here and grab Javier Baez, SS, ChC. When phrases such as "Gary Sheffield-like bat speed," "70 power" and "shortstop" are thrown together ... enough said. He's not a sure bet to reach his ceiling, but he doesn't even have to to be a stud."

Pick 2.4 - Mike Newman, ROTOScouting/FanGraphs - Christian Yelich (OF/MIA)

"Ben drafting Javier Baez was a kick in the groin, but Yelich allows me to take the type of player I covet. He's unlikely to dominate any one category, but Yelich will accumulate counting stats resulting in significant value."

Pick 2.5 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - Carlos Correa (SS/HOU)

"I too was hoping Baez would fall. In my league, I don't often draft prospects who are in rookie ball, but Correa was the highest upside position player available. Plus, I prefer to go after players at scarce positions (See, Pick 1.9), Correa was an easy choice for me."

Pick 2.6 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Anthony Rendon (3B/WSH)

"Count me in on the Baez-regret-bandwagon as well. I'm going to pick myself up and dust myself off by selecting Rendon though. To get a bat and approach this advanced in the second round is good fortune I think. I'm passing on arms once again, but if healthy, I love what Rendon brings to the table (average, OBP, solid power, positional scarcity). That's a big if of course, but a risk I'm willing to take given the value."

Pick 2.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - Byron Buxton (OF/MIN)

"Buxton has a huge ceiling, but a lot of work to do. If he pans out he could be among the top fantasy performers year and in and year out while also playing a premium position."

Pick 2.8 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Miguel Sano (3B/MIN)

"Thoughts of 80 grade power dance through my head as I excitedly make this selection. Sano may have to move off third base, but the power will play anywhere on the diamond. Sano's success hinges on the utility of his hit tool. Thankfully for him his power sets the bar for a usable hit tool quite low, and even if it plays at a slightly below average rate, the power will compensate."

PIck 2.9 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Tyler Skaggs (SP/ARZ)

"I was thinking about another position player, but ultimately I can't pass up a 21-year-old lefty who is ready for the majors right now yet still has some projection remaining."

Pick 2.10 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Jameson Taillon (SP/PIT)

"Since Josh took the player I hoped would fall to me, I will take a pitcher here who has the potential to be a number 1 starter. My choice here is Pirates pitching prospect Jameson Taillon."

Pick 2.11 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - Jonathan Singleton (1B/HOU)

I don't care that he likes to get high, I'm taking the best bat left on the board in Jonathan Singleton. First base is not as deep as it's been in the past, especially when it comes to hitters who can boast 30 HR potential and an above average bat. Singleton is a great mix of both upside and proximity.

Pick 2.12 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Kevin Gausman (SP/BAL)

"I was really hoping Byron Buxton would keep falling, as I had him way up on my draft board. Instead, I go with my first pitcher in Kevin Gausman, who projects to have three plus pitches and should move through the minors quickly. He has a good frame and pitchability and has front-end upside. The division he’ll play in is the only drawback."

Pick 2.13 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - Archie Bradley (SP/ARZ)

"I was also hoping against hope that Buxton would be here for one of my picks. Unfortunately, he is not and I don't see a bat worth reaching for ahead of these two guys. I'll take Archie Bradley and Trevor Bauer. I think Bradley is an ace in the making, Bauer still has a No. 2 ceiling for me."

Round 3

Pick 3.1 - Nick Shlain, Rotowire - Trevor Bauer (SP/CLE)

Pick 3.2 - Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com - Noah Syndergaard (SP/TOR)

"We just passed a pretty big drop-off point, and there were a number of equally viable options available to me at this pick. I opted to go for Noah Syndergaard, as there are few pitchers left with front-end upside and the kind of stuff Syndergaard possesses. He’s another pitcher with a good frame and a hard fastball with two potentially plus complementary pitches. He also has the arsenal to generate groundballs, which is a plus. There’s risk here and he needs to prove himself at the upper levels, but I like the upside, and he could move quickly."

Pick 3.3 - Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus - Brian Goodwin (OF/WSH)

"I could go chalk for this pick, but there's no fun in that. I cannot imagine a team of mine without Brian Goodwin on it and he's not getting back to me in another 20+ selections. I think he can be a full five category contributor with an emphasis on speed (which I didn't get much of in my first two picks) and he's already reached Double-A. I don't care if this is a bit of a reach - he's my guy, plain and simple."

Pick 3.4 - Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams - Jorge Soler (OF/CHC)

"We don't know too much about the guy I am taking, but in his limited plate appearances here in the states in 2012, he showed some power, speed and a solid eye at the plate that bodes well heading into 2013. My choice is Cubs outfield prospect Jorge Soler. I look forward to seeing how he fares in full season ball in a few short months."

PIck 3.5 - John Sickels, Minor League Ball - Jedd Gyorko (2B/SD)

He may not be especially toolsy, but he can really hit and he's ready now. I believe in the bat and I will go with Jedd Gyorko, 2B-3B, San Diego Padres.

Pick 3.6 - Josh Shephardson, Baseball Prospectus - Delino DeShields Jr (2B/HOU)

"I drafted explosive power with my last pick, Miguel Sano, and I'm going to compliment him with a burner and stolen base monster with this pick. I'm selecting Delino DeShields Jr, second baseman for the Houston Astros. Billy Hamilton overshadowed DeShields Jr's base stealing binge, but the son of a former big leaguer swiped 102 bases in 121 attempts. He's yet to taste the upper minors, and thus he has rungs on the minor league ladder left to ascend before reaching the show, but he has a skill-set that could be well worth the wait."

Pick 3.7 - Spencer Schneier, Beyond the Box Score - Trevor Rosenthal (SP/STL)

"This may be considered a reach, but when a guy's floor is dominant closer, you have to jump at him. I heard from multiple places that Rosenthal was big-league ready as a starter in 2012, and with some seasoning he could develop into a front of the rotation pitcher. I am his biggest fan, and considered him in the 2nd round as well."

Pick 3.8 - Craig Goldstein, Fake Teams - Alen Hanson (SS/PIT)

"This might be a bit of a reach but I have doubts that he'd get back to me. Despite my first two picks playing 3rd base, I like to grab up the middle prospects if I can. We'll see if Hanson can back up his breakout 2012, but even with some statistical regression, his bat will play up the middle. Despite Josh grabbing my preferred option of Delino DeShields, Jr just ahead of me, I'm excited to get Hanson's blend of pop and speed at this point in the draft."

Pick 3.9 - J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter - Albert Almora (OF/CHC)

Pick 3.10 - Mike Newman, ROTOScouting/FanGraphs - Francisco Lindor (SP/CLE)

"Only two shortstop prospects taken in the first three rounds are sure bets to stick at the position and Lindor is one of them. This winter, it seems dynasty league owners are using Lindor's elite defense as a reason to discount his hit and power tool. Maybe they "lag behind" technically, but he's still extremely young and has considerable room for growth."

Pick 3.11 - Ben Carsley, Fire Brand of the AL - Mike Olt (3B/TEX)

"I'm not necessarily his biggest fan in the world, but after taking a high-risk pick with Baez it makes sense to take a high-floor guy in Mike Olt, 3B/1B, Tex. I think he'll end up in a different organization by midseason, and I like the power potential at third, plus he shouldn't embarrass himself in terms of AVG or OBP. I was tempted by a few fallen SP prospects and high-upside OFs, but I think/hope at least one of them will be around in four picks."

Pick 3.12 - Jason Catania, FanGraphs - Nolan Arenado (3B/COL)

"Don't care about the concerns that cropped up surrounding Arenado in 2012. He's still a 21-year-old contact machine (10% K rate) who's doubles -- and potentially home run -- power combined with an innate ability to put bat on ball will play up nicely at Coors Field. Plus, with apologies to Chris Nelson and Jordan Pacheco, there's exactly no one standing between Arenado and several years of quality production for both the Rockies and my dynasty squad."

PIck 3.13 - Jason Hunt, Fake Teams - David Dahl (OF/COL)

"Taken high in the first round last season, Dahl went out and absolutely obliterated the Pioneer League, a league that generally trends toward college players rather than high schoolers. Is it a small sample in an amazing offensive environment? Absolutely, but he could very well be a five category monster that plays in Coors Field when he reaches the bigs."

Stay tuned for Rounds 4-6 tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.
Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru.

Don’t Don’t Don’t Don’t Don’t You Forget About (Dillon) Gee

bretsayre — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 01:22:36 -0000

I've made no secret of the fact that I am a believer in the holy trinity, as it relates to pitching. For those of you unaware of what this means, here's an excerpt about it from the first post I wrote for Fake Teams (about Jaime Garcia):

There are three ways for a pitcher to make himself valuable both from a real-life and fantasy perspective without the baggage of luck or surroundings. First, he must be able to miss bats -- this obviously brings strikeouts from a fantasy perspective, but also helps reduce ERA. Second, he has to limit his free passes -- this has a large effect on a pitcher's WHIP and wins as a by-product since it will allow him to go deeper into games. Finally, he has to keep the ball on the ground -- fewer fly balls = fewer HR allowed and more double plays = better ERA and chance for wins. Any pitcher who does at least one of these things well can be a major leaguer. Just two of these qualities is enough to be a star, but the pitchers who can do all three are the ones who are special because they have the most amount of control over their downside risk.

We're going to use a BB/9 rate of 2.5, a K/9 rate of 7.0 and a ground ball rate of 50% to signify a pitcher who is "above average" in these pitching segments.

And I'm sure you can tell where I'm going with this now. In 2012, there were six pitchers who threw at least 100 innings and qualified for holy trinity status: Adam Wainwright, James Shields, Kris Medlen, Doug Fister, the aforementioned Jaime Garcia and Dillon Gee. Clearly, Gee is the name that jumps out at you from this list, as the rest of the pitchers are much better thought of when it comes to fantasy. Even Garcia, who had a forgettable year, was a top-50 SP in ADP last season. But Gee, he's not even on the radar.

When we ranked the top-100 starting pitchers for 2013 here at Fake Teams (which you've seen this week), Gee did not make the list. In fact, I was the only one of the four of us who ranked him. I've also not seen a single thing written about him on any sites I frequent during the off-season. I had thought that everyone on the planet had forgotten about Dillon Gee until I participated in the Rotoworld mock draft last month. I had Gee all queued up to take in the 24th round (of 26 total), as he was one of the important targets on my list. Unfortunately, with the pick directly in front of me, D.J. Short grabbed him. So there's at least one other person on the planet who remembers Dillon Gee.

A 21st round draft pick out of Texas-Arlington in 2007, Gee was not very highly thought of coming up through the minor leagues. He's never ranked as a top-15 prospect in a weak Mets farm system by either Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. Gee was a guy who got by on pitchability. He had above-average control, an above-average change-up and not much else. Unfortunately, the word most used to describe his arsenal in old scouting reports was "fringy". He was sitting 88-91 with his fastball and did not have even an average breaking ball. There are a ton of guys like this in the minor leagues, and the vast majority of them fail to the point that they never even make it to the majors.

But something happened on Gee's way to obscurity. First, he had a fluky good five-start stretch for the Mets in 2010 (2-2 with a 2.18 ERA, but a 17-15 K/BB rate in 33 IP) after putting up a 4.96 ERA in 161 1/3 IP in the International League. This gave him an opportunity the following season, and he ate a lot of innings for the Mets (160 2/3) at near-replacement level, at least on the surface. Through the end of July, Gee had a 3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 70 K in 107 1/3 IP - but he couldn't hold it through the remainder of the season, as he admittedly battled fatigue until he was shut down on September 24. Mike Pelfrey's terribleness (and subsequent injury) gave Gee another shot at the Mets' rotation out of Spring Training in 2012, which he took advantage of.

Gee's final 2012 stat line isn't going to wow anyone into submission. He finished the 2012 season at 6-7 with a 4.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 97 K in 109 2/3 IP. The strikeouts are nice, but they're just about the only thing that even causes you to take a second look. However, if you look at his K/BB rate, you'll notice that it's greatly improved over the past three seasons (1.13 in 2010, 1.61 in 2011, 3.34 in 2012). This jump in 2012 brought his levels much closer to what he had put up in the minor leagues - in 437 2/3 career minor league innings, his K/BB rate was 4.06.

What was happening under the surface was that this pitchability guy was actually adding stuff as he went along. His once fringy fastball jumped up to average 90.4 MPH in 2011, and took another uptick in 2012 to 90.9 MPH. This improved velocity (though it only bumped him up to average), allowed his secondary pitches to play up - and he had a new one to bring to the table. In 2011, he threw his slider 35 times in 160+ IP and it was not a good pitch. In fact, he didn't record one swing and miss with it that entire season. In 2012, he threw it 249 times in 109 2/3 IP and it was worth 4 runs above average. This time, he got 40 swings and misses.

And his original strengths, his command and change-up surfaced as real weapons for him at the major league level. The command showed itself in an interesting manner. While his walk rate decreased from 10.1% to 6.3%, he was throwing more pitches out of the zone than ever before in his career. He was able to accomplish this by getting both more swings and less contact outside the zone - which is a great combination, if you can pull it off. With another secondary pitch under his belt, his change-up became an even more effective weapon. In fact, he got more whiffs/swing on his change than Clay Buchholz, James Shields or Justin Verlander in 2012.

The unfortunate part of all of this was that Gee ended up sidelined with a blood clot in his shoulder before the 2012 All-Star break, and was limited to less than 110 innings. He had surgery in July to remedy this and by all reports, should be good to go for Spring Training. The return from any surgery, especially on the shoulder, can be tricky, but the procedure was not the typical shoulder surgery associated with pitchers - it was to widen an artery, not repair a rotator cuff.

While he's unlikely to hold much value in shallow mixed leagues, Gee is a name that you should store in the back of your head for deeper mixed and NL-only formats. If he can carry forward the underlying skills he showed in 2012, which are backed by a real change in his stuff and repertoire, he should see an uptick in his raw numbers. Despite missing the last three months of the 2012 season, Gee was still the #109 SP on the ESPN Player Rater. If he's healthy in Spring Training, there's no reason he can't put up a Jon Niese-type season for 2013 - especially since Gee bested Niese in both FIP (3.71 to 3.81) and xFIP (3.54 to 3.64) during 2012.

My way-too-early 2013 prediction for Dillon Gee: 11 wins, 3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 152 K in 188 IP.

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Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Josh Donaldson But Were Afraid To Ask

bretsayre — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 02:42:32 -0000

There's no getting around it, third base in Oakland has not exactly been a fantasy hotbed since Eric Chavez went the way of the Betamax. Over the past five seasons, 15 players have manned the hot corner, with none playing more than 200 games at the position. Here's the full list: Jack Hannahan, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Adam Kennedy, Scott Sizemore, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Inge, Eric Sogard, Eric Chavez, Donnie Murphy, Andy LaRoche, Steve Tolleson, Jeff Baisley, Akinori Iwamura, Brooks Conrad, Luke Hughes. As Triumph the Insult Comic Dog would say, it's a who's who of who cares.

So it should surprise no one that Oakland is going into the 2013 with a big question mark at the position. The leader in the clubhouse is former catcher Josh Donaldson, who is a 27 year old with a career .666 OPS. So why is a team coming off a playoff berth, and expecting to compete for one again, counting on Donaldson to be a starter for them? It's a healthy combination of recency and promise.

Before we go any further, let's take a step back and see who Josh Donaldson was supposed to be. He was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft by the Chicago Cubs as a catcher, where he was supposed to be an offensive catcher who needed some work to stay at the position. Here's an excerpt from Baseball America's report on him from after the 2007 season (when he put up a 1.075 OPS in the Northwest League):

After signing for $652,500, he rated as the short-season Northwest League's top position prospect. Donaldson provides more offense and athleticism than most catchers. He's aggressive and looks to pull pitches for power early in counts, but can shorten his stroke and use the opposite field. He controls the strike zone and projects as a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers a season. He has slightly above-average arm strength and threw out 38 percent of basestealers in his pro debut. His speed is average. His inexperience shows behind the plate, though the Cubs believe he'll become a solid defender.

Well, he never quite became a solid defender behind the plate, but his arm was certainly strong enough for a move to 3B. After coming over to the A's in the RIch Harden trade back in 2008, he steadily climbed through the minors with diminishing acclaim. The reports on him were essentially the same: power potential and a decent approach, but needs to tone down his aggressiveness and work on his receiving.

Heading into 2012, he had still showed some power potential of late, hitting 35 HR in 738 AB in Triple-A between 2010 and 2011 -- but, then again, it was the PCL, which is a high-octane offensive environment. However, something changed during the 2012 season. He started the season in Oakland and was failing amazingly. Before being demoted to Triple-A on April 19, he was hitting .094/.094/.094 with a 13/0 K-BB rate in 32 AB. But when he raked in Triple-A, he got another shot in May, during which he hit .182/.191/.303 with a 13/1 K-BB rate in 66 AB. Better, but still not good.

However, while he was terrible at the major league level, in 209 Triple-A at bats last season, Donaldson hit .335/.402/.598 with 13 HR and 45 RBI. The most important change for him was in his contact ability. Donaldson had now lowered his Triple-A K-rate from 22.3% to 19.9% to 14.5% between 2010 and 2012. It's also unlikely a coincidence that his best offensive performance came during the first season he played more games away from catcher than at the position.

Because of how dreadfully thin the A's are at the position organizationally, Donaldson got a third (and potentially final) chance in August after Brandon Inge hurt his shoulder. All Donaldson did the rest of the season was hit .290/.356/.489 with 8 HR, 26 RBI, 3 SB and a 35-13 K/BB rate in 176 AB. He essentially became the hitter that scouts thought he could be coming out of college. Now, it's never a good idea to trust September stats too much, but Donaldson did much of that damage in August, with a 1.033 OPS for the month. It's a great story of perseverance and redemption, but what does it mean for Donaldson going forward?

The answer lies in whether he can maintain the contact ability he showed in 2012. From May 13th to the end of the season, Donaldson had an 18.3% strikeout rate. If he can maintain that into 2013, the party can continue and he can be a very solid AL-only and deep mixed option. If not, he'll likely turn into a pumpkin and end up back in Sacramento before long. For me, I think the step forward he took was mostly real and he's a worthwhile flier on draft day.

My 2013 prediction for Josh Donaldson: .263 AVG, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 55 R, 6 SB in 470 AB.

Jed Lowrie: Houston, We Have Another Injury

bretsayre — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 05:08:33 -0000

There are many things that you can do 49% of the time and have it considered a success. Frank Thomas got on base in 49% of his plate appearances in the strike-shortened 1994 season. That is the highest non-Barry Bonds OBP posted in the last 40 years. Kyle Drabek had a 49% whiff rate on his curveball in 2012 -- the highest in the major leagues (probably not the guy you would have guessed). That means his curve was a pretty amazing pitch. According to a film documenting his life and influence on music, Lemmy Kilmeister of Motorhead is 49% m***erf***er. That is a TON of m***erf***er.

However, of all of those things you can do 49% of the time and have that be awesome, missing 49% of your team's games due to injury is not one of them. And that's exactly what Lowrie has done over the past four seasons. Three hundred eighteen of them to be exact. They haven't been cheap ones either, Lowrie lost 110 games to wrist surgery in 2009, had a long bout with mononucleosis in 2010, lost two months with a shoulder injury in 2011 and suffered a sprained ankle (along with nerve damage) in 2012. This caliber of injury history would make Troy Tulowitzki cringe.

But while all of this is fact, it says nothing of Jed Lowrie the player. Lowrie, while able to physically make it onto the field, has a career .250/.326/.417 line with 35 HR and 159 RBI in 353 career games. Which means that if you went through the mostly meaningless exercise of extrapolating his career stats over a single 150 game season, you'd get a .250 hitter with 15 HR, 68 RBI, 65 R and 2 SB. Last year, Gordon Beckham hit .234 with 16 HR, 62 RBI, 60 R and 5 SB, which was good enough to be the 41st middle infielder on the ESPN Player Rater.

So why is it that we're so interested in Jed Lowrie from a fantasy perspective? According to Mock Draft Central, Lowrie is being taken as the 17th shortstop off the board, ahead of Stephen Drew, Andrelton Simmons, Zack Cozart and Everth Cabrera. The easy answer is power. What his career numbers don't show you is that he hit 16 HR in 97 games during the 2012 campaign -- good for a .190 ISO (isolated power), which was third best among shortstops in the major leagues. And this wasn't a HR/FB rate fueled power surge either, this is just who Lowrie is as a hitter. Last season, Lowrie finished second in baseball to Rod Barajas in fly ball percentage at 51.3%. This is nothing new, as Lowrie had a career fly ball rate of over 50%.

If he could stay healthy to play even 140 games, he'd be worth that draft spot, since he could potentially push 25 HR. But since he's never played in even 100 games in a single season, it's pointless to even worry about that. The odds that Lowrie will stay healthy enough to warrant his draft position, especially in the deeper player pools of AL-only leagues, are slim -- and it's not a smart use of your resources. On the other hand, if you can grab him for a couple of bucks or an end-game draft pick (essentially anywhere he's a low-risk flier), take a shot. Maybe you'll even be able to weasel a solid performance out of him until he ends up back at home on the DL.

My 2013 prediction for Jed Lowrie: .263 AVG, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 35 R, 2 SB in 334 AB.

Gordon Beckham: Resurrecting the Golden Boy

bretsayre — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 01:44:37 -0000

At this time three years ago, Gordon Beckham was the darling of fantasy circles. Expected to build upon his 2009 campaign, in which he hit .270 with 14 HR, 63 RBI and 7 SB in only 103 games, Beckham entered the 2010 season as a potential stud. Unfortunately for him and fantasy owners, he ended it as a bona fide fantasy goat -- hitting .252 with 9 HR and 4 SB in 131 games. Things didn't get any better for him after the 2011 season either. He entered the 2012 season with little-to-no expectations, and here's why.

There were a few statistical reasons for Beckham's struggles in 2010 and 2011. The biggest one was clearly his plate discipline -- which went from pretty good to pretty awful in a relatively short period of time. His walk rate went from 9.5% to 7.4% to 6.3% between 2009 and 2011. Over the same time, his strikeout rate increased from 15.1% to 18.5% to 19.9%. That's not the most comforting of trends. To add insult to injury, in 2011, Beckham managed a mind-boggling 21% infield fly ball rate -- the highest in the majors among all qualifying hitters. In his 2009 campaign, Beckham swung at 24.7% of balls outside the strike zone. This increased to 36.9% in 2011. And the power that he hinted at his freshman year? Nowhere to be found. He followed an ISO (isolated power) of .190 in 2009 with a .126 mark in 2010 and a .106 mark in 2011. His HR/FB rate hovered at 6.6% between 2010 and 2011, a distant cry from his 10.4% mark in 2009. And that's enough.

So why am I harping on the things that made 2010 and 2011 so bad for Beckham? Because most of those same things improved across the board in 2012 -- we just didn't really notice. That strikeout rate dipped back to 15.3%, right in line with the 15.1% he put up in 2009. His swinging strike rate was the lowest of his career. His HR/FB rate ticked back up to nearly 9%, which went nicely with an improved fly ball rate to net him a career high 16 HR. Unfortunately, the improvements he made in the contact department were overshadowed by a career low BABIP of .254 -- leading to his .234 average in 2012.

However, the issue with Beckham was still a lack of patience. His OBP of .296 in 2012 was terrible - in fact, it was just as terrible as his .296 OBP in 2011. He's still swinging at far more pitches outside the zone than in his 2009 season that continues to haunt him (33.5% to 24.7%). And because of this, he's gradually seeing fewer and fewer pitches in the strike zone.

Fortunately, one of the things Beckham has going for him in fantasy is that this year's crop of 2B is pretty poor compared to years past. Even in AL-only leagues, where five of the top six options reside (Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler, Zobrist, Kipnis), the bottom falls out of the position pretty quickly -- especially if Jurickson Profar starts the year at Triple-A. And fortunately for prospective Beckham owners, the barrier to entry here will likely be small, as his name value has gone from overstating to understating his case.

Yesterday, I posted my Top 50 Dynasty League 2B and Beckham ranked 18th on that list. Here's what I wrote about him:

Beckham is back on the right path, as his 2012 saw similar underlying numbers to his rookie season of 2009 (including a 15.3% K-rate, compared to 18.5% and 19.9% for the previous two seasons). He can still be a .260-.270 hitter with 15-20 HR annually.

There is still reason for optimism here, but it has nothing to do with luck and everything to do with the fact that the areas Beckham needs to improve in, are areas he's already showed major league success with. If Beckham gets back to being anything close to the more discerning hitter he was in his rookie year, there is no reason he can't be a top-15 second baseman in 2013. But another disappointing season from a fantasy perspective, and this post-hype sleeper moves closer to becoming permanently dormant.

My 2013 prediction for Gordon Beckham: .261 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 55 R, 8 SB in 532 AB.

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.

Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru, including my 2013 Dynasty League Rankings, for which the Top 50 shortstops were posted today (in addition to a Top 150 Prospects list from earlier in the month).

Doing One Thing and Doing It Well: The Garrett Jones Story

bretsayre — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 04:08:27 -0000

There are many things in this world that Garrett Jones cannot do. Garrett Jones cannot pitch. He has never pitched a professional game and the odds of him doing so before he hangs it up are about the same as the cycling community welcoming Lance Armstrong back with open arms. Garrett Jones cannot hit left-handed pitching. This isn't up for much debate, as Jones has a career .590 OPS against portsiders, which is 10 points lower than Rey Ordonez's career OPS. Garrett Jones cannot live without the Olive Garden. He's a huge fan of the establishment and loves to order the Chicken & Gnocchi Veronese. Garrett Jones cannot kill a bug. It's just not in his blood to destroy another life form like that.

However, what Garrett Jones can do is hit baseballs far off pitchers who throw with their right hand. In his career, Jones has a .279/.348/.504 line with 71 HR and 222 RBI in 1,411 AB against them. Sure, it's not Joey Votto-type production, but I bet it's higher than you thought it was. In 2012, Jones did that one thing he does well better than any other full season of his career, hitting .289/.332/.556 with 25 HR and 76 RBI in 401 AB versus right-handers. In fact, he did that one thing he does well so often that his overall line made him the 17th most valuable 1B and 49th most valuable OF according to the ESPN Player Rater. That may not sound like the world greatest endorsement in mixed leagues, but in NL-only formats, it's kind of a big deal. Jones will take the dual eligibility (1B/OF) into the 2013 season with him - though for keeper/dynasty formats, keep in mind that he may very well lose the OF portion of that after this season.

Garrett Jones' story is one of perseverance. He was selected in the 14th round of the 1999 draft out of high school by the Atlanta Braves and spent three years in rookie ball before being released. Of course, he was also a 1B who had a combined .236/.296/.330 line in those three seasons combined. Needless to say, he was not doing that one thing that he does well, well. Jones latched on with the Twins, who with the exception of 84 plate appearances in the majors during 2007, let Jones toil in Triple-A for a long time. Long enough for Jones to accumulate nearly 2,000 AB at that level alone. Finally, in 2009, he signed with the Pirates - and after spending the first three months back in the International League, he arrived in Pittsburgh on July 1. He would hit .293/.372/.567 with 21 HR in 314 AB that season, and has not played another minor league game since.

There are many players available throughout drafts that are considered "unsexy", and it's likely because they're over 30, they play in a small market or they were not well thought of as prospects in the minor leagues. Garrett Jones is all three of those things. But while NL-only leaguers are familiar with him (as they should be), mixed leaguers should become more familiar.

There is a strategy to deploying players like Garrett Jones in a shallower format and it centers around letting Jones do that one thing he does well, but nothing else. If you are in a league with daily lineup changes and a relatively deep bench, Jones makes for a great strong side of a platoon. By sitting Jones every time the Pirates face a southpaw and subbing in a bench-level player, you can use his strengths to get the most out of that lineup spot. In a 14-team league, where that bench player might be someone like Michael Brantley or Jon Jay, that platoon could net you a .280+ hitter with 25 HR and 10 SB - and all it would cost you is two late draft picks and a bench spot. After all, production is production. So get out there and let Garrett Jones do the one thing he does well for your team.

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.

Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru, including my 2013 Dynasty League Rankings, for which the Top 50 catchers were posted yesterday (in addition to the Top 150 Prospects list from last week).

Fake Teams Staff Post: I Think I'll Pass - Relief Pitchers

bretsayre — Fri, 18 Jan 2013 02:24:19 -0000

Each week, when we cover a position here at Fake Teams, in addition to all of the content you've been seeing, we're going to be doing two staff posts where each of the writers will contribute a brief comment on a player they will personally be targeting in drafts and a player they will be avoiding. Yesterday we shared the optimistic side of this equation, but today is a day of reckoning. These are the players who we are weary of at their projected draft day values.

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their least favorite relief pitching targets for 2013:

"The closer I am avoiding on draft day 2013 is the new Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan has saved 76 games over the last two seasons, but there are some disturbing trends owners should be aware of. The good: his strikeout rate increased from 8.00 K/9 to just over 10.00 K/9 last season. Oh, and he saved 36 games as well. The bad: his walk rate skyrocketed from 2.10 per nine innings to 5.43 per nine. HIs HR/9 also followed suit, from 0.13 HR per nine to 1.21 HR per nine. HIs 89.7% strand rate is not repeatable, especially with the move to the American League East. He is also moving from one of the better pitchers parks in baseball - PNC Park - which depressed run scoring by 24% and home runs by 37%, to Fenway Park which increased run scoring by 21% and home runs by almost 9% last season. Certainly not good for a closer who was prone to the free pass and home run ball last season. If you draft Hanrahan, make sure you draft his backup, Andrew Bailey as well." --Ray Guilfoyle

"Don't get me wrong, I like Addison Reed. I'm just not entirely sure why he's ranked so high among the Fake Teams' writers (No. 10 overall). Among the 21 closers with 25 or more saves in 2012, only Alfredo Aceves had a higher ERA than Reed's 4.75. And it's not like he's striking out a ton of batters, either. While Reed struck out 12.88 per nine in the minors, those numbers have yet to translate against big league hitting. In 2012, Reed struck out less than a batter per inning (8.84 K/9), and his swinging strike rate of 9.3% was below league average. Among the top 10 closers on our list, I think Reed is the most likely to lose his job." --Alex Kantecki

"This won't be a surprise to anyone who knows me, as I pushed the idea of the Orioles moving Jim Johnson in the middle of 2012 because a) I thought their luck would run out and, b) If a team was willing to pay full price, they would be selling high on a reliever with some weak peripherals. I was definitely wrong on "a" and perhaps Johnson contributed to that, but I contend that a team with the Orioles' holes would benefit from the pieces they would receive in a trade of a 70-75 IP reliever. Johnson does have more value than most relievers since the Orioles use him so much (or did in 2011 w/91 IP), but they decreased his total innings by 23 IP despite 2 more appearances in 2012. Johnson strikes nobody out which is a huge no-no in my book, especially from a reliever. In his favor is a spectacular GB% of over 60, in addition to his stinginess with the walks. That said, he appears to have gotten lucky in the BABIP department the last two years, with BABIP's of .268 (2011) and .251 (2012) despite the incredibly high GB%. We shouldn't rule out that some pitchers have some sort of control over their BABIP by inducing weak contact and the like and perhaps Johnson is one of those guys, but I'd rather not risk the pick I'd have to on that chance. Johnson also does well to keep the ball in the park, no surprise given his groundball tendencies. It's not that Johnson is a bad pitcher, but he doesn't have the qualities that I value in a reliever (K's) and I worry about some serious regression on the horizon. Couple those worries with some regression worries about the Orioles in general and the unlikelihood they do what they did in 1 run games again." --Craig Goldstein

"It's a bit too easy to say Drew Storen given my ranking of him and what we now know about their bullpen. It pains me, but I have to pass on a personal favorite of mine, Huston Street. Street has shown all the skills to be a top 10 closer, but between concerns about his health, concerns about the offense for the Padres, concerns about the quality of the team itself, and concerns about the quality of relievers behind him in the pen, there are just too many question marks for me to be able to trust him as even a #2 closer." --Jason Hunt

"I have nothing but respect for the absolutely dominant season that Fernando Rodney put together last season. There's no getting around it, he was insanely good. But we also know two additional facts which makes me very unlikely to end up with him on any of my teams. FIrst of all, the last time Rodney had an ERA lower than 4.00, Lehman Brothers was still managing record-breaking profits. Second of all, the Rays have never had the same pitcher lead the team in saves in consecutive years during Joe Maddon's administration. In fact, the last time the organization had a closer that accomplished this was Danys Baez in 2004 and 2005. There is certainly a very real chance that the Rays have 'fixed' Rodney, and his walk rate stays near his 2012 level, but let's not pretend it's a certainty. There is also no shortage of great arms in that Rays bullpen behind Rodney in Joel Peralta and Jake McGee. This all adds up to too much risk for a closer likely to go off the board in the top-5." --Bret Sayre

Minor League Relievers and the Second Trap Door

bretsayre — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 05:00:42 -0000

*The following post originally ran on December 23, 2012 at The Dynasty Guru. Check it out for more specific keeper/dynasty league content -- especially the 2013 Dynasty League Rankings, which started this week with my Top 150 Prospects list.

I’m taking a break from putting together the rankings package, that will start to trickle out on January 14th, to preemptively answer a question which will likely come up when list posts. Why is Bruce Rondon, the supposed Tigers closer, not on the top-150 list? The answer to that has something to with Rondon himself, but it’s mostly attributable to the value of relief prospects in the context of a long-term league.

First, the Rondon-specific reasoning. The biggest reason why I do not have him ranked is that even if he’s given the Tigers’ closer job out of spring training (which I don’t think will happen, but that is a smaller point), I don’t think he’ll be very good at it. This is not an Addison Reed situation from last year, where it was a pitcher who was dominant throughout the minor league season and had the scouting reports to match. Rondon throws really really hard, but he’s also a very large man who has poor control and no legit secondary pitch to speak of. So while he may get the opportunity at some point, I’m not optimistic.

The larger issue is how to value the relief prospect overall. I’m not one to shy away from talking about mistakes that I’ve learned from as I go through this process year after year, and one from last year was my ranking of Addison Reed. On my pre-season prospect list, I ranked him 30th, as I thought he would be the next dominant closer in baseball — and knew it was an aggressive ranking at the time. The thing is, my opinion of Reed hasn’t changed all that much. I still think he will be a pretty dominant closer, and it’s reflected in my RP rankings, but Reed should not have been a top-30 prospect last year. I was putting too much stock in the path he had to the closer job (which ended up being right, as he recorded 29 of them).

The Joel Hanrahan trade which surfaced on Saturday afternoon reinforces why closers are always going to be less valuable in a dynasty league format than they are in redraft (or even many keeper) formats. Over the last two seasons, while Hanrahan has been the Pirates’ closer, he’s had 76 saves (5th in baseball) and a 2.24 ERA with a 9.0 K/9 — and he may not have a closer job next year due to circumstances beyond his own control. And if he does get the job, it leaves another potential top-20 closer in Andrew Bailey out to pasture. I’m already taking into account reliever performance volatility when doing my rankings, but the other thing which needs to be factored in is role volatility. The second is the more frustrating of the two, as Kenley Jansen and David Robertson owners can attest to — Robertson was the best reliever on the Yankees last year but was passed over for saves in favor of Rafael Soriano, and Jansen is amazingly looking up the Dodgers’ depth chart at Brandon League.

Now, for this year’s rankings, the only pure relief prospect I have ranked in the top-150 is Mark Montgomery of the Yankees (I don’t consider Trevor Rosenthal or Marcus Stroman in that category, as they could still be starters), and he’s in the back third. Funny enough, his stats from 2012 were almost as good as Addison Reed’s 2011 numbers:

Mark Montgomery, 2012: 1.69 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 118 K in 74 2/3 IP between High-A, Double-A and AFL
Addison Reed, 2011: 1.26 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 111 K in 78 1/3 IP between Low-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A

So while it’s true that Montgomery has a much more difficult path to a closer job — not only is Mariano Rivera still locked in for 2013, but David Robertson is ahead of him for saves beyond that — that’s not the main reasoning behind his low ranking. The pressure is on any relief prospect to be elite, otherwise he is likely to end up with no fantasy value in a standard league. It’s similar to a catching prospect, who is not offensively gifted enough to be viable at another position — they only have one trap door to fall through for fantasy irrelevance. On the other hand, if a starting pitching prospect fails in the rotation, his first trap door only leads down to the bullpen, where they can still have plenty of value. It’s the same reasoning why shortstop prospects are so valuable. They can move down the defensive spectrum (usually to 2B or 3B) and still stick at a somewhat shallow position. And when you’re collecting talent on your minor league roster, because of the risks inherent in the prospect world, you want a player who has as many paths to value as possible.

Fake Teams Staff Post: Who's My Relief Pitcher?

bretsayre — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 02:27:52 -0000

Each week, when we cover a position here at Fake Teams, in addition to all of the content you've been seeing, we're going to be doing two staff posts where each of the writers will contribute a brief comment on a player they will personally be targeting in drafts and a player they will be avoiding. Because we're generally an optimistic group here, we're going to start with a player each of us thinks is a good value. Come back tomorrow to find out who the guys we're avoiding are.

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their favorite relief pitching targets for 2013:

"I had Ernesto Frieri in my top 10 prior to the Ryan Madson signing, and still think he has the potential to be a steal on draft day. Our consensus rankings had Frieri at #31, which is probably in the right ball park if you are looking at Madson claiming the closer's job fairly early in the season. That said, this is a pitcher who struck out over 13 batters per 9 last season, and allowed an absolutely ridiculous 26 hits in 54 innings pitched last year. He has shown the skills to be a top 10 closer, and I have to believe that if Frieri comes into spring and nails down the job while they wait for Madson, he may not let it go at any point in the season." --Jason Hunt

"I was surprised to see Greg Holland ranked so high, at No. 13, in the Fake Teams Consensus Reliever Rankings, but I think the Royals closer can even top that. Holland took over as the ninth-inning man when Jonathan Broxton was traded to the Reds on the last day of July in 2012, and he picked up 16 saves in 20 chances, proving he can handle the job in 2013. His 12.22 K/9 was ninth best among qualified relievers, and while his walk rate of 11.8% is higher than you’d like to see, he limited the damage by giving up just two home runs in 67 innings -- his HR/FB rate of 3.4% was sixth best in the league. As recently as 2011, Holland had a K/BB of 3.89, so I’m not as worried about the high walk totals as some others. If he can continue to keep the ball in the ballpark, Holland can be a top 10 closer in 2013." --Alex Kantecki

"When talking about closers, there are three stereotypes which can work against a player's value. First, closers from bad teams are generally overlooked - when there's very little correlation between team success and number of save opportunities. Secondly, closers who aren't flamboyant tend to get overlooked. That's just human nature. Finally, history tells us that closers aren't supposed to be left-handed (which is pretty insane when you think about it). These three stereotypes have all morphed together to unnaturally keep Glen Perkins from getting the love he deserves. His 2.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 78 K in 70 1/3 IP during 2012 doesn't look all that much different from the pitching lines of top closer options like Jonathan Papelbon and Jason Motte." --Bret Sayre

"In April 2012 Toronto closer, Sergio Santos, went on the DL. Enter Francisco Cordero who promptly lost the job to Casey Janssen. Casey proceeded to save 22 games, while posting an ERA of 2.54 and a WHIP of 1.15. He is now slated to be the closer for the Blue Jays in 2013, and he has the ability to keep that job. Mr. Santos is still in Toronto, so there are no guarantees, but Janssen has the stuff. In each of his last three seasons, he has had a K/9 of 8.3 or more, and has walked 2.8 or less. Additionally, in each of his last two seasons, he has had an ERA of 2.54 or lower and a WHIP of 1.10 or lower. All of this adds up to a good possibility Casey will begin and end the season as the Blue Jays closer." --Brad Dengler

"Heading into 2013 drafts, I would not waste an early pick on a Craig Kimbrel or Jason Motte in the first 8-9 rounds. I am not saying they won't have solid seasons, I just think that you could grab a guy like Kenley Jansen about 6-8 rounds later who could be just as effective as Kimbrel and Motte. Like I mentioned in Part 2 of our consensus reliever rankings, I see Jansen taking over the closer role in Los Angeles early in the season. Plus, there is a chance Mattingly just hands him the role on Opening Day as he is the better reliever anyway. He strikes out just under 14 batters per nine innings, and cut his walk rate to just over 3 per nine last season, while saving 25 games in 32 chances. He limited lefties to a triple slash line of .145/.225/.293, and righties to a .146/.236/.255 slash line last season. When pitching at home vs a right handed hitting lineup, he was money last season, holding righties to a slash line of .086/.172/.103, giving up just 5 hits to the 64 batters he faced, striking out 31 and walking five. Add in the fact that a change in his pitching mechanics resulted in a 6-7 mph improvement in his cutter, his most effective pitch, and he could be even more dominant in 2013. All he needs is a little love from Mattingly." --Ray Guilfoyle

The State of Relief Pitching

bretsayre — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 23:23:46 -0000

You're going to see a lot of information this week on individual relief pitchers, whether it's player profiles, rankings or prospect information. But before we get into those specifics, it can be very helpful to take a step back. The idea behind this State of the Position series, which will run at the beginning of each week of coverage, is to give you a sense of what to expect from the position as a whole in various types of leagues.

The Overview

There is no position more fungible or divisive on draft day than the closer. This is mostly because there are so many different variations on the strategy. There a million places out there these days that keep pumping the "never pay for saves" meme, and there's certainly a good reason for that, but when you get too attached to any meme you can fall ill to its consequences. For example, I was a part of a mock draft which will be featured in the Rotoworld draft magazine for 2013 and I was not intending on taking one of the top closers. However, in the 10th round of a 14-team draft, I was still staring at Jason Motte in the queue and was more than happy to take him at that point. There's a right place to take any player, even a closer.

The 2013 crop of closers is as risky of a group as I can ever remember seeing. In fact, in our consensus rankings, the #4 overall RP is a pitcher who posted his first ERA lower than 4.00 since 2006 last season and the man behind him is a 43 year old coming off major knee surgery. Things don't much prettier as you make your way further down the list. You have younger closers, like Addison Reed and Greg Holland, who could take that next step forward to become first-tier closers or could lose their jobs to very capable relievers behind them. You have high performing closers like J.J. Putz and Huston Street, who can perform at an elite level when healthy (which is rarely as much as you like them to be). And do you want to be the one to figure out who will get the most saves in Washington, Toronto, Los Angeles (AL or NL) or Oakland? The number of teams expected to contend for division titles that don't have definitive answers at closer is surprising.

The League Breakout

In the official Fake Teams consensus ranks (which will be coming out in subsequent posts), the National League and American League were tied at 19 a piece, with two free agents still remaining. Of course, this shouldn't come as much of a surprise with the fact that only one reliever per team can be the favorite for saves. However, the quality of the relievers in question does vary. The top three (and safest three) options available are all in the National League in Craig Kimbrel, Jason Motte and Jonathan Papelbon. However, of the next ten closers in question, eight of them reside in the junior circuit.

In NL-only leagues, you're best bet is to monitor the prices for the top three options -- however, unless they are undervalued, the better play should be to wait until the glut of low-level closers come to an appropriate price. With that said, you're going to need to keep a close eye on the valuations of these lower-end closers, as you don't want to be the owner who has to pay a premium for Bobby Parnell or Brandon League. In AL-only leagues, there are two directions you can go in. If you're risk averse, you're going to want to grab one of the clearly entrenched closers, by my count it's either seven or eight (depending on how you feel about Greg Holland). If you're risk taking, you may want to bypass "closers" all together and grab three or four high-end relievers who are potential closers, like Sergio Santos, Vinnie Pestano, Jake McGee or many others.

Hold Steady

With more and more leagues heading towards a 6x6 format (or even more), holds are becoming more of a focus in fantasy circles. However, focusing too much on this statistic can be a bit of a fool's errand, outside of a handful of names. The turnover from year-to-year, when it comes to holds, is extraordinary. Since 2010, 82 seasons of 20 holds in a single season have been recorded. But when you make it cumulative, only 15 pitchers have recorded 60 holds over that three year span. If you raise the bar to 75, the number drops to seven.

And that doesn't even touch on the relievers getting these holds. They have to walk the fine line between not being poor enough to be removed from the set up role and not being good enough to take over for the team's current closer. The risks are great to use anything put late round picks (or single-dollar picks) on filling this need, and I think it's similar to selecting a defense in fantasy football.

The Strategy in Mixed Leagues

It's really impossible to sit here and tell you exactly what your strategy should be, as the way closers are drafted and valued swing wildly between leagues. However, the one thing which is more important than even the valuations of these closers is to monitor how they are being drafted. There is no other position in fantasy baseball for which it actually can behoove you to be reactive instead of proactive -- at least once you get past the first few names. There's just not that much of a difference between the names in the second half of the top-10 and the ones in the bottom half of the top-20. But then again, these are closers we're talking about. Unless you're grabbing a guy like Kimbrel, Motte or Papelbon, don't be the owner who starts the run on closers, be the one who participates. There's too many other positions to worry about over the course of the draft.

The Rest of the Week

Now that we've covered the position from a macro perspective, it's time to dig into the players. Ray will be bringing you the first part of our 2013 consensus positional rankings next (in just a few short hours), so stay tuned for that - along with a slightly different type of prospect coverage which starts tomorrow morning with Jason and Craig. The rest of the writing staff here will be working on bringing you in-depth profiles and sleeper picks. We've got a lot of information coming your way for both the rest of this week and the rest of the off-season, so empty some space in your brain and be prepared for an informational avalanche. Remember, if you haven't started your 2013 draft prep yet, you're already behind someone in your league (especially if you play in a league with me).

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.
Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru, including my 2013 Dynasty League Rankings which begin today with the first part of my Top 150 Dynasty League Prospects.

Guest Post: Homer Bailey, Fulfilling His Promise

bretsayre — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 12:23:01 -0000

Improbably, there are many other fantasy writers out there besides the ones you see on a regular basis here at Fake Teams. Today's guest post comes to you courtesy of Paul Sporer, who you can find both as a regular contributor to Baseball Prospectus and at his own site, PaulSporer.com. At his personal site, Paul puts together a yearly SP guide which is the most comprehensive of its kind on the internet - and you can read more about it here. If you're into fantasy baseball podcasts, it's absolutely worth checking out the one he does with Jason Collette at BP called "Towers of Power Fantasy Hour". You can also find him on Twitter at @sporer.

There is no truth to the rumor that Homer Bailey was given that moniker because of his propensity to allow longballs. It’s merely a coincidence. Like how Grant Balfour had a 5.6 BB/9 through his first three seasons as a major leaguer. Bailey has been above league average in HR/9 for three of his first four seasons and even the year he found himself on the right side of the ledger, it was by the faintest of margins. He posted a 0.91 rate in 2010 against a 0.97 rate for National League starters.

The gopheritis was masking his improvements a bit, saddling him with an ERA around the mid-4.00s for three straight years before 2012. It wasn’t the only culprit, but a rising flyball rate combined with the tendency to allow homeruns is never a good thing. If you look at his last two years, you will see that they are virtually identical yet his ERA dropped three-quarters of a run. How did that happen and why do I like him so much for 2013?

Bailey	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	AVG	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB
2011	7.23	2.25	3.2	0.260	0.296	71.2%	11.5%
2012	7.27	2.25	3.2	0.253	0.290	73.6%	11.5%

First off, his component metrics for 2011 were on par with his 2012 ERA (3.77 xFIP, 3.78 SIERA) so it’s not a huge shock that his ERA came down. How he got there is of interest especially since we want to figure out whether he can do it again in 2013, or better yet, improve.

IMPLOSIONS

Bailey curbed his propensity for truly awful starts in 2012 while also making the most of his career (33). It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how beneficial that can be to dropping an ERA. In his first three seasons where logged quality innings samples (100+), he had what I call an implosion start (five or more earned runs) in 23 percent of his starts (14-of-61). Five may seem like an arbitrary number and to a degree it is, but my thinking is that even if you finish the game somehow, a 5.00 ERA is ugly.

In 2012, he had just five implosion starts, or 15 percent of his 33 outings. He also cut down the damage from his worst outing of the year. Last year he had a nine earned run shellacking that did a number on his ERA (accounted for 14 percent of his total earned runs), but this year his worst outing was six earned runs. Everyone is going to have a bad outing (Justin Verlander had an eight run disaster last year), but mitigating the overall damage helps stem the tide on a poor composite ERA. Bailey isn’t Verlander so he will have trouble recovering from an eight earned run outing. Whereas Verlander put up a 1.93 ERA in his next six starts.

GETTING AN ADVANTAGE

From 2009-2011, Bailey had 62 percent of his starts (38-of-61) against opponents with a winning percentage under .500 and yet he posted just a 4.36 ERA and 1.37 WHIP against them which wasn’t too far from his 4.66 ERA and 1.37 WHIP against those with .500 or better records. In 2012, he finally took full advantage of his competition making hay against the weaker set with a 3.36 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 17 of his 33 starts. It should be noted that he more than held his own against the better competition, too, with a 4.03 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his other 16 starts. In fact, his 7.5 K/9 and 3.4 K/BB marks against the tougher teams bested his 7.1 and 3.1 marks against the lesser foes. His ability to take advantage of weaker competition as well as his improvements against tougher opponents outlines his advancement as a pitcher. We hear often about thrower vs. pitcher; Bailey is transitioning into the latter and paying dividends on his status as a four-time top 50 prospect (including 5th and 9th in 2007 and 2008, respectively).

BETTER CONTACT

Another significant difference for Bailey was his batted ball profile. He set a career-high with a 45 percent groundball rate, up from 40 percent in 2011, and he pulled the bulk of that from his flyball rate going from 38 to 35 percent. Perhaps even more importantly was that his profile changed greatly at home. Great American Ballpark is known as a hitter’s haven so someone with homerun issues isn’t exactly a great fit, but Bailey took his groundball rate up 10 percent to 47 percent at home dropping his home flyball rate by four percent to 35 percent. This is another aspect of his game that underscores his transformation into a refined, mature pitcher.

IN 2013

Simply repeating 2012 would be great for Bailey. His performance made him the 35th rated starting pitcher on ESPN’s Player Rater last year and he isn’t being rated that highly in the 2013 materials that have become to come out. Bret has him #38 while Craig has him all the way at #80, so the opinions will vary greatly on him presenting an opportunity for value. I think there is another level to his strikeout rate on par with his 2009 rate (8.3 K/9) because as the great Ron Shandler told us many years ago, "once you display a skill, you own it" so it is in Bailey’s arsenal.

His fastball averages 93 MPH, 24th in the majors last year. That includes his sinkers, though, which is more of a 92 MPH pitch. According to Brooks Baseball, his four-seamer is 93.3. That said, I’m not entirely sure it raises him up the ladder because several of those 23 ahead of him on the Fangraphs chart likely have sinkers built into their number as well. The point is that he throws hard and he’s slowly adding swings-and-misses.

The next big step for him is improving his command within the zone so that when he misses his spot, it’s not a fat pitch ready to be clubbed over the fence. He’s most effective against righties low-and-away and 84 percent of his 18 homers against them were middle-in.

*Data courtesy of ESPN.com

Considering the fact that he gave up 70 percent of his home runs to righties, this should be an area of opportunity that Bailey and the Reds staff is focusing on because fixing it even incrementally can greatly improve his numbers.

I see at least more of the same from Bailey in 2013. He has 340 innings of the same skills over the last two years and improved his results with those skills from 2011 to 2012 so there is no reason he can’t do so again in 2013 with the figure above showing one way he can immediately improve. He has raised his floor yearly showing more and more development as he accrues major league experience. The reason I like him so much as a buy candidate is because there is upside within the profile to go with the continually rising floor.

Fake Teams Staff Post: I Think I'll Pass - Starting Pitchers

bretsayre — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 01:33:10 -0000

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their least favorite starting pitching targets for 2013:

"There is a pitcher ranked within the top-30 SP of our consensus rankings who had a 4.00 xFIP over 219 innings in 2012 and the last time this pitcher threw even 112 innings prior to 2012 was 2008. So while Jake Peavy, admittedly, had a fantastic season in 2012, I'm certainly not going to pay the price to find out if he'll stay healthy for two seasons in a row. On top of that, I'm skeptical as to whether Peavy can maintain the HR/FB rates that he has so far with the White Sox. In fact, his HR/FB rate of 9.2% while a member of the White Sox is actually LOWER than the 9.6% HR/FB rate he put up in San Diego. I'm comfortable taking the risk with Peavy inside the top-50, but if I have to take him over the likes of C.J. Wilson, Matt Harvey and Anibal Sanchez, among others, I don't see him ending up on too many of my teams." --Bret Sayre

"Coming off his worst full season as a starter, you'd think Jon Lester - once regarded as one of the league's better starters - would be in line for a nice bounce back season. But I don't think that's the case. Lester struggled all year in 2012, finishing 9-14 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP with 166 strikeouts in 205.1 innings of work. After averaging 210 strikeouts per season the previous three years, Lester failed to reach 180 strikeouts for the first time since 2008, and while his walks went down, his home runs went up. Lester's not missing as many bats as he used to, as his SwStr% is now just league average. Bill James projects a big bounce back from Lester - a 3.55 ERA with 192 strikeouts in 211 innings - but I don't see that happening. I see Lester as a top 40 pitcher in 2013, not a top 30." --Alex Kantecki

"The question with Kyle Lohse is just how much you believe that he can repeat the performance he had in 2012. He posted the highest strikeout percentage (16.6%) since 2006 last year, along with the lowest walk percentage (4.4%) of his career. For me, you should be drafting Lohse as the pitcher who doesn't hurt you and your ratios, and provides a decent amount of counting stats to go with it; the known quantity. He has value, but if I am going to draft a pitcher when you would need to based on our rankings, I want more upside to go with it." --Jason Hunt

"I'm wary of Chris Sale for two reasons. One, he's a slider-throwing lefty, and those guys tend to get hurt. Second, his red hot first half was probably the product of what is most likely an artificially low home run rate. In 102.2 first half innings, he gave up just five homers, which seems impossible in the generally homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. Naturally, things seemed to correct themselves in the second half, when he gave up 14 home runs and saw his ERA rise. I still think Sale will be a very good pitcher, but I don't see him as an ace in the making, and there are at least five pitchers outside of the Fake Teams top 20 that I'd take in drafts before him." --Paul Rice

"So it looks like I'm going to be "that guy" on Kris Medlen. Two of my esteemed colleagues made him "their guy" yesterday as part of our staff post. I'm going to be the person letting Medlen fall. I don't have anything against the guy - I was high on him when he first came up and often thought he was overlooked when people fawned over Teheran, Vizcaino and Delgado. At the same time, I think the views presented yesterday might be a bit...optimistic. Sure, he had a GB% of 53% last year. By far a career high. His previous career high was 43%, which is still fine but not nearly the same level. As discussed yesterday, his BABIP is due for a massive regression, but you can't just acknowledge that and move on. Given his phenomenal GB%, we need to appreciate just how absurd Medlen's .261 BABIP was, since it's generally fly ball pitchers who gain a BABIP advantage as a tradeoff for more of those balls going over the fence. I'd also like to point out that the last time that Medlen was even a part time starter, his HR/FB was 11.5%. In 2012 he cut that in half and posted a 5.7% HR/FB. I'm not saying that 11.5 should be his baseline instead of 5.7, but given our limited data, we should probably assume somewhere in the middle. There's also the strand rate of 91% that Jason pointed out. Obviously that's likely to change no matter how good the Atlanta bullpen is. Look, I'm not trying to say that Medlen is going to be a bad pitcher in any respect. But his 2012 was insanely good and regressing a little bit of that probably isn't doing enough. I think Medlen will be valuable, but a #2 fantasy SP? I quite doubt that. Perhaps I'm just missing what everyone else is seeing, but I see someone who, without the same luck is going to be a solid 3/4 SP on a fantasy team." --Craig Goldstein

"I love when an older starting pitcher defies the odds and puts up a season that no one saw coming, and that is exactly what we got from R.A. Dickey last season. He won 20 games with a 2.73 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.27 xFIP, and a 1.05 WHIP. His season was so good, he won the National League Cy Young Award, deservedly so. But, there are several reasons why I would avoid Monsieur Dickey, as he now calls Toronto home: he is 38 years old and throws a knuckleball, and he is moving from the NL to the AL, moving from a pitchers park to more of a hitters park. In addition, here are some numbers to ponder:

2010: 11 wins, 5.37 K/9, 8.4% SwStr%, 82.0% contact

2011: 8 wins, 5.78 K/9, 7.8% SwStr%, 83.4% contact

2012: 20 wins, 8.86 K/9, 12.2% SwStr%, 75.4% contact

Some of these numbers don't belong with the other. Was his 2012 season a one year aberration? I think it might have been. He won't duplicate the 20 win season and there is a good chance his strikeout rate drops having to pitch to a DH four times a game rather than a pitcher and a few pinch hitters." -- Ray Guilfoyle

Clay Blackburn, A Prospect After My Own Heart

bretsayre — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 03:47:46 -0000

*The following post originally ran on September 7, 2012 at The Dynasty Guru. Check it out for more specific keeper/dynasty league content.

At the time of the 2011 draft, a lot was made of the fact that two of the top available talents were from rival high schools in Oklahoma. Of course, you’ve heard of Dylan Bundy and you’re likely pretty familiar with Archie Bradley as well. However, approximately 100 miles west of Owasso (Bundy’s hometown) on Interstate 44, there was another lesser-known prospect a foot. All in all, there were six prep pitchers from the state of Oklahoma who went off the board before Clay Blackburn was taken in the 16th round (507th overall) by the San Francisco Giants. In fact, he wasn’t even the first pitcher selected from his own high school rotation – Conor Costello was taken two picks before him (although he opted to attend Arkansas rather than sign). Blackburn, on the other hand, was given a $150k bonus and signed in time to log 33 1/3 IP in the Arizona complex league.

Those 33 1/3 innings got the attention of scouts, as he had a 1.08 ERA, 0.66 WHIP and 30 strikeouts versus only 3 walks. He entered the 2012 season with a little buzz. Keith Law at ESPN named Blackburn the #10 prospect in the Giants system, Baseball America had him ranked #21 and Kevin Goldstein at BP had him as the system’s sleeper (outside his Top 20). The Giants assigned him to Low-A Augusta to start the year and Blackburn never looked back. This week, Blackburn was promoted to High-A to make a start in the California League playoffs for San Jose. He threw 7 innings of one-run ball with 9 strikeouts and 1 walk. Just another one of those outings for the young righty. In fact, it was the 10th of Blackburn’s 23 outings in which he struck out more than a batter per inning and allowed one walk or fewer.

If you’ve read my stuff across various outlets or follow me on Twitter, you’ve certainly heard me talk about the holy trinity as it relates to pitching. If a pitcher can get strikeouts, limit walks and induce ground balls at above average rates, he can limit his downside risk and pitch deeper into games. The barriers to entry I use are a 7.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 50% GB rate. For the 2012 season (prior to his High-A playoff start), Clay Blackburn had a 9.8 K/9, 1.2 BB/9 and 55% GB rate. That’s the type of performance that really tugs at my heartstrings. In addition to that, his other stats were pretty good as well – 2.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 131 1/3 IP. That’ll do.

However, with all that said, it’s important to realize what Blackburn is and what he isn’t. As awesome and easy as it would be to look at his stat line and yell "ACE," it’s just not the case. So then what is Blackburn? He’s a big kid (6’4", 225) with advanced command and poise on the mound for his age (he doesn’t turn 20 until January). His best pitch is a sinker which he throws in the low-90’s, but is a special pitch when you take into account both its movement and his ability to locate it. Everything outside of that is still a work in progress. In addition to the sinker, he throws a curveball, slider and changeup – and while none of those pitches currently project as plus, all three could become average pitches down the line. Realistically, this makes him a potential innings-eating #3 starter if the whole package comes together.

The Giants look likely to send Blackburn back to San Jose to start 2013, although there’s an outside chance they could push him straight to Double-A Richmond – which will be a good challenge for him whenever he does arrive there. Blackburn will be a prospect I keep a particularly close eye on going forward because, if his skill set can translate to success in the upper minors, the entire package can make him into a vastly underrated prospect – even more so than he is right now.

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.
Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru.

Fake Teams Staff Post: Who's My Starting Pitcher?

bretsayre — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 03:07:36 -0000

Each week, when we cover a position here at Fake Teams, in addition to all of the content you've been seeing, we're going to be doing two staff posts where each of the writers will contribute a brief comment on a player they will personally be targeting in drafts and a player they will be avoiding. Because we're generally an optimistic group here, we're going to start with a player each of us thinks is a good value. Come back tomorrow to find out who the guys we're avoiding are.

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their favorite starting pitching targets for 2013:

"It's pretty clear that I am a huge believer in the performance of Kris Medlen as a starting pitcher, as evidenced by the #10 ranking. But as I looked more and more through his numbers, I found it more difficult to find items that would regress so substantially as to hurt his value past that. Will he going to provide a sub 2.00 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP in 2013? No. But this still is a pitcher who was inducing groundballs at least 50% of the time as a starting pitcher, was not walking batters, was still notching a strikeout per inning, and keeping the ball in the park. Even if his BABIP (.248 as a starter) and strand rate (93.3% as a starter) regress back beyond the expected values, what is he? He is a starting pitcher who can post an ERA between 2.75 and 3.00 to go with a WHIP hovering just above 1.00 and a strikeout per inning who will be pitching for an expected contender." --Jason Hunt

"What Kris Medlen did in 2012 was pretty remarkable. And the fact he almost didn't get to do it - he spent the first half of the season in the bullpen - makes it an even greater story. Medlen finished the season 10-1 with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 138 innings but didn't qualify for the ERA title. If he had qualified, he would have run away with the title. If you take his stats purely as a starter, they look even better - in 12 starts, Medlen went 9-0 with a 0.97 ERA and a 84:10 K:BB ratio in 83.2 innings. No, you can't expect Medlen to repeat his 2012 season in 2013, but you can still expect numbers worthy of a No. 2 starter. In his previous go around as a starter in 2010, in 14 starts, Medlen went 5-0 with a 3.86 ERA and a 62:16 K:BB ratio in 84 innings. Over a full season, Medlen should be a solid contributor of strikeouts - think 175 or so - while his ERA and WHIP have the potential to be elite. Medlen's still young at 27 and he's only begun to scratch the surface as a starting pitcher. He comes in at No. 23 in the Fake Teams consensus rankings and if you can get him anywhere close to that spot, you can't go wrong." --Alex Kantecki

"You probably never heard of Brewers starter Marco Estrada before last year, and it's probably because he's a 29 year old pitcher who had made just 9 career starts before the 2012 season. He probably won't be drafted in many mixed leagues, but he should. Of all the starting pitchers who threw more than 130 innings last season, only six of them had a higher strikeout per nine rate (9.30 K/9) than Estrada, but none of them had a lower walk rate than Estrada (1.89 BB/9). That list of starting pitchers includes Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and Yu Darvish. Yeah, he's in good company. Estrada made 23 starts last season, going 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.48 xFIP and a 1.14 WHIP. He is prone to giving up the long ball (1.17 per nine), but that should regress a bit in 2013, as Miller Park played as an extreme home run park last season. Miller Park increased home runs to left handers by 42% and right handers by 30%. Extreme with a capital E. Estrada was successful last season as he threw first pitch strikes to almost 62% of the batters he faced, so he likes to get ahead of hitters. He also induced swinging strikes at a 10.2% rate, ranking 21st amongst all starters. Estrada should continue to provide value to fantasy owners in 2013, as he is slated to start the season in the Brewers rotation, and could strike out 180 batters in 2013." --Ray Guilfoyle

"Most of the bigger guys I'm high on, compared to the consensus rankings, have already been covered recently - pitchers like Adam Wainwright, Matt Moore and C.J. Wilson. So I'm going to go way down the list to a guy I will be targeting in a ton of drafts this spring. If I told you there was a member of the Tampa Bay pitching staff who not only had a 3.54 xFIP on the season, but from August 1 on, went 7-1 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 57 K in 67 IP, you'd probably like to roster him, right? Well, you're right, I'd like to roster Alex Cobb too. An extreme ground ball pitcher (58.8% GB rate) playing in front of not only the league's most efficient defense (which will be even better in 2013 thanks to the addition of Yunel Escobar), Cobb has a ton going for him. The best part? You should be able to grab him as an end-game guy in any mixed league that's 14 teams or less, provided that the hype doesn't get too out of control for him prior to draft day. Also, because of the way the Rays like to play around with service time, you can pretty much take it to the bank that Cobb will be in the rotation out of spring training." --Bret Sayre

"I'm making Stephen Strasburg 'my guy'. I feel I'm entitled since I'm the only one who ranked him 2nd ahead of Kershaw, and also because Bret made the case for taking the obvious pick with Robinson Cano. I guess that means Verlander should be my guy? Whatever. I love Strasburg for all the reasons anyone would love Strasburg and I'm not afraid of an innings limit. As SBN's Federal Baseball posted in November (6th paragraph), it doesn't look like there will be any limit for Strasburg in 2013, with Scott Boras (a driving force behind Strasburg '12 shutdown) saying "he's going to throw a couple hundred innings." Does this mean he'll give you the 230+ IP that Verlander will? Certainly not. If I thought that I might have ranked him ahe- y'know what? That's a lie anyway, Justin is too dreamy... Anyway, I'm not bringing you fancy stats or hard analysis on Strasburg because you don't need it. He's going to be phenomenal and we all know it." --Craig Goldstein

"No one has the potential to outperform their expected draft position more than Matt Moore. Moore had a disappointing year, but expectations may have been unrealistically high after his stellar late-season performance in 2011. I think Moore's season was eerily similar to David Price's rookie year. Like Price, Moore struggled quite a bit out of the gate, but pitched much better down the stretch. In the second half, Moore struck out batters at a higher rate, cut his walks down, and sharply decreased the number of home runs he gave up. Not to mention, he's still only 23. Fake Teams has him ranked 27th in the consensus rankings. This time next year, he'll be at least ten spots higher." --Paul Rice

What To Do With Aroldis Chapman

bretsayre — Tue, 08 Jan 2013 03:12:36 -0000

*The following post originally ran on November 30, 2012 at The Dynasty Guru. Check it out for more specific keeper/dynasty league content.

Those of you who drafted Chapman for this season, took him hoping that he would make the rotation out of spring training. He certainly looked the part – with a 2.12 ERA, 18 K and 2 BB in 17 innings. Yes, they are spring stats, but with Chapman, it was all that we had (other than a handful of starts at Triple-A back in 2010) – and the scouting reports were positive.

We all know what happened from there. Chapman ended up getting bumped from the rotation in favor of Mike Leake and ended up turning in one of the greatest seasons a relief pitcher has put together in the last decade or two. He threw 71 2/3 innings with a 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and a 122-23 K/BB rate. Not only was he completely dominant, but he took over the closer’s role from Sean Marshall in May and racked up 38 saves in essentially four months on the job. If Chapman was going into 2013 as the Reds’ closer again, he’d be the #1b at the position to Craig Kimbrel’s #1a (who’s making history in his own right).

However, things appear about to finally change for the flame-throwing left-hander. The Reds signed Jonathan Broxton to a 3-year deal earlier this week, and not only gave him closer money, but also spoke publicly about wanting to move Chapman into the rotation for 2013. And therein lies the dilemma for keeper/dynasty league owners. In this off-season of both role and performance uncertainty, how do you value Aroldis Chapman?

It’s tempting to look at other reliever-to-starter conversion projects and extrapolate data from those successes/failures, but the problem with that is every circumstance and pitcher is different. The first thing you’re probably thinking of is 2012 Chris Sale – another hard-throwing lefty who moved from a pretty dominant relief arm to a pretty dominant starter. But even Sale couldn’t hold a candle to Chapman out of the ‘pen. In 2011, Sale had a 2.79 ERA, 3.12 FIP and 10.0 K/9 in relief . In 2012, Sale had a 3.05 ERA, 3.27 FIP and 9.0 K/9 in the rotation. If you start trying to measure out Chapman’s potential numbers in the rotation based on what Sale did, Chapman comes out as potentially the #1 fantasy starter in baseball. But we know that’s extremely unlikely to happen. Jeff Samardzija went from reliever to starter and improved, but it was mostly due to a new approach. Daniel Bard went in the opposite direction after his command completely abandoned him. Neftali Feliz also went south, but in his case, it was his elbow that abandoned him.

So if we can’t look to other examples for clarity, we just need to view the entire package and the risk involved in each outcome. This may be a little simplified, but here are the five potential outcomes, as I see it, for Chapman in 2013: 1) The Sale – he ends up being a dominant starter, but pitches only around 180 innings. 2) The Darvish – he ends up being an inconsistent starter with flashes of brilliance. 3) The Feliz – he ends up pitching OK and then getting hurt. 4) The Bard – he pitches poorly in the rotation and the Reds move him back to the bullpen. 5) The 2012 Chapman – the Reds change their minds and keep him in the bullpen the whole year.

The chart below shows my best approximation for both the odds of each scenario happening and the what he should be worth if it ends up coming true:

Outcome	Value	Odds	CV
The Sale	$30	20%	$6
The Darvish	$21	25%	$5
The Feliz	$6	20%	$1
The Bard	$12	15%	$2
The 2012	$27	20%	$5
Composite Value			$20

Because his valuations are not only better than my non-existent valuations, but would be better than ones I would create anyway, I used Mike Gianella’s AL/NL only values for the outcomes (you can check them all out at Roto Think Tank). The only ones I altered were the Bard, because it accounts for the additional value Chapman would have in the bullpen during the second half over what Bard ended up having (Bard was actually worth -$2 in 2012), and the Darvish, because I scaled it down to reflect a 175 IP season, rather than the 191 innings Darvish pitched (he was worth $23 in 2012).

This exercise tells me that $20 is a good jumping off point for Chapman’s 2013 value. And if you’re curious how that lines up with 2012′s auction prices, we’re talking about the Wainwright, Darvish, Shields, Moore level from the 2012 pre-season – so right around the #20 spot among starters. And based on how you felt about Moore and Darvish going into the season, you can pretty much judge whether your risk tolerance as an owner is in line with this assessment or not.

For keeper league owners, it’s not a matter of whether Chapman should be kept – unless you’re in a league which keeps fewer than 100 players, he’d kind of a no brainer – it’s more about whether you can get more for him on the open market right now than you think he’ll be worth in 2013. If someone is willing to pay you near 2012 Chapman value or 2012 Sale value for him, it may be a good time to cash in and spend elsewhere on someone more reliable. Same for dynasty league owners, although this is all a little less of a concern, as the issues around his uncertainty are mostly limited to 2013, and possibly 2014. I’m not particularly worried that the Reds continue to send Chapman out there in the rotation if he ends up being a middling option at best, since that would be where his value would be most depressed. So, while it’s a pain to have to not be confident about where one of your best arms will end up long-term, you should at least feel comfortable that he’ll hold value. As long as he stays healthy.

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Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru.

The State of Starting Pitching

bretsayre — Sun, 06 Jan 2013 05:16:56 -0000

You're going to see a lot of information this week on individual starting pitchers, whether it's player profiles, rankings or prospect information. But before we get into those specifics, it can be very helpful to take a step back. The idea behind this State of the Position series, which will run at the beginning of each week of coverage, is to give you a sense of what to expect from the position as a whole in various types of leagues.

The Overview

It's another year of the same old story in the starting pitcher landscape. There are studs at the top (around 15-17, depending on how you feel about a few guys), with a few interchanged parts from last year -- subtract Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester and Dan Haren, but add R.A. Dickey, Gio Gonzalez and Yu Darvish. And if you look at the very top, there's a slight changing of the guard as well, with Stephen Strasburg and David Price forging their way into elite status, while Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia are surrounded by something that they're entirely unused to: doubt.

The landscape beyond the studs is very similar to recent years as well, in that everyone has their faults and there is upside everywhere. In the 20-40 range, you have rookies who could explode into fantasy studs like Matt Moore and Matt Harvey and big time bounce-back candidates like the aforementioned Haren, Lester and Lincecum. Even moving way down the list, outside of the top-90, you have pitchers with top-30 SP seasons on their resume within the last few seasons like Francisco Liriano, Ricky Romero and Ervin Santana. You also have two top-45 SP from just last season that no one seems to care about in Paul Maholm and Bronson Arroyo. Then there's a laundry list of names that don't fit into either of those categories, but I'll be taking late-round fliers on where I can, like Andrew Cashner, Scott Baker, Erasmo Ramirez and Jorge de la Rosa.

The League Breakout

In the official Fake Teams consensus ranks (which will be coming out in subsequent posts), the National League leads the American League in our top-100 by a score of 55 to 45 -- which shouldn't be surprising to anyone given the advantage senior circuit pitchers have over their junior circuit brethren. What is a little surprising, and a bit of a new phenomenon for 2013, is that more than half of the top-40 starters (21 to be exact) belong to the American League. However, what this also means is that of the next 60 pitchers, only 24 of them are AL starters -- which more or less tells you what you need to know about strategy.

If you're in an NL-only league, you can take advantage of the depth by not splurging on top guys. It's not ideal in a vacuum, but if you can really load up on offense and grab a staff anchored by Ian Kennedy, Mike Minor, Edwin Jackson types, it's certainly something you can win a title with. In an AL-only league, even if you prefer to employ a strategy in which you wait on pitching, you're going to be in a rough spot if you do that. There will be much more of a fight over middle-tier SP like Ryan Dempster, Jeremy Hellickson and Clay Buchholz than there are in the NL for their contemporaries. That means you're much better off biting the bullet and grabbing a pair of top starters for fair value than trying to grab the next level starters for prices (or rounds if you're snaking) you're unlikely to be happy with.

The Tommy John Rehabbers

It's a funny thing that's happened over the last couple of seasons. Prominent pitchers who have come back from Tommy John surgery have had immediate success more than ever before. This happened last year with Brett Anderson, who went 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 25 K in 35 IP after returning in August. in 2011, it was Stephen Strasburg, who went 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 24 K in 24 IP. There have been others, but those are the ones that you remember, which is the point.

At some point in 2013, six potentially helpful arms will be returning from that same surgery. Scott Baker, Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, Neftali Feliz, Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino are all guys with the potential to have real value in a variety of different types of leagues; however, don't get too caught up in the recent string of success from other TJ returners. If you're being smart about it, you're expecting all of these players to return around 13-14 months after surgery to a lower level of performance than you were accustomed to from their prior to the surgery. Anything on top of that is gravy. So if you're thinking about drafting any of these guys (outside of Scott Baker) in a redraft league, make sure you're realistic about what you are likely getting. And for your reference, here are the actual surgery dates for all of those players:

Scott Baker - April 17, 2012
Cory Luebke - May 23, 2012
Danny Duffy - June 13, 2012
Brandon Beachy - June 21, 2012
Felipe Paulino - July 3, 2012
Neftali Feliz - August 1, 2012

The Strategy in Mixed Leagues

With strikeouts rising and a continued low-ERA environment that we haven't seen since the early 1990's (the last time MLB had an ERA under 4.00 for a two season stretch was 1991 and 1992 -- it's been 3.98 over the past two seasons), you'd think that there would be more of a need to grab one of the top starters. Fortunately, for those of you who like to stock up on offense early in a draft, that's just not true. Of the top-13 starters according to the ESPN Player Rater in 2012, 6 were likely drafted outside the top-20 SP and 4 (Dickey, Medlen, Sale, Lohse) were likely drafted outside the top-50 (if at all). And that's not even touching on other very late draft picks, like Wade Miley, Matt Harrison, A.J. Burnett and Lance Lynn who had extremely impressive seasons based on their pre-season values. The opportunity is still there to wait and reap the benefits if you choose wisely.

And the biggest part of choosing wisely is invoking the "quantity over quality" mantra. We all can sit around before the season and talk about xFIP, HR/FB rate, BABIP and everything else that is entirely worthwhile to look at. We can go into our drafts with the absolute pinnacle of knowledge and still completely whiff on a pitching staff, which is both the blessing and the curse of the position. And it all comes down to simple math. Say the #5 SP in the 2013 rankings (in our case, it's Felix Hernandez) has approximately a 90% chance of finishing as a top-30 pitcher. If you believe that the #23 and #24 pitchers (Kris Medlen and Jordan Zimmermann) both have a 55% chance of finishing as a top-30 pitcher, the two of them combined have a 80% chance to give you a top-30 SP, and a 30% chance to have two. All while using a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a big bat (like Ian Kinsler, Matt Holliday or Jason Heyward). And it works all the way down to the later rounds, with pitchers who have a 10-20% chance at being a top-30 SP. You do your best to isolate names, but more important than the individual names you drag into your draft queue are the number of those names you get.

The Rest of the Week

Now that we've covered the position from a macro perspective, it's time to dig into the players. Ray will be bringing you the first part of our 2013 consensus positional rankings next (in just a few short hours), so stay tuned for that - along with our starting pitcher prospect coverage which starts tomorrow morning with Jason and Craig. The rest of the writing staff here will be working on bringing you in-depth profiles and sleeper picks. We've got a lot of information coming your way for both the rest of this week and the rest of the off-season, so empty some space in your brain and be prepared for an informational avalanche. Remember, if you haven't started your 2013 draft prep yet, you're already behind someone in your league (especially if you play in a league with me).

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.
Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru.

Jayson Werth Rides Many Things, Your Bench Should Not Be One of Them

bretsayre — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 01:43:58 -0000

I was certainly the high man on the totem pole with regards to Jayson Werth in our consensus OF rankings, released two weeks ago. In fact, I have him as my 31st OF, while the other three contributing rankers had him at 40, 46 and 56 respectively. Through the lens of five pictures from the greatest Tumblr account ever created, I will tell you why I still like him to be a valuable OF in fantasy for 2013.

Leaving 2012 in the Rearview Mirror (YES)

Just when Werth was starting to leave behind his reputation for being a serious injury risk, he went ahead and had his first season of fewer than 350 PA since 2007. And while this may just reconfirm many long held beliefs about his ability to stay on the field, just remember that it was his first trip to the DL since 2008. Clearly there is still risk here with Werth, but I think just like it was likely understated over the past two seasons, it's now reversed course and is now overstated.

More Power to Bear (YES)

While it's true that Werth's power has been declining, the 5 HR in 300 AB in 2012 was a fluke for two reasons. First of all, he hit 3 of those HR in his first 98 AB before breaking his wrist -- and as we all know, wrist injuries can sap power like nobody's business. When he returned, he hit 2 HR in his next 202 AB. This left him with a completely underwhelming 5.3% HR/FB rate. To put that in perspective, his career HR/FB rate is 14.4%. Even last year, in a down season, it was 12.2%. I expect him to return to 20 HR form in 2013, assuming he can avoid the DL.

Stomping Out the Strikeouts (YES)

One item on Jayson Werth's stat sheet which really jumps out at you about his 2012 season was that he put up, by far, the lowest strikeout rate of his career. His 16.6% rate was a reduction of around 30% from his career 24.0% rate. And while some may look at that number and scream "REGRESSION!!", just remember that statistically speaking, a hitter's strikeout rate stabilizes after 150 plate appearances. Jayson Werth came to the plate 344 times in 2012. If he can even split the difference and turn a 20% K-rate into his new normal, Werth's fantasy outlook will improve in nearly every category.

The Nationals Lineup Will Smite Opposing Pitchers (YES)

The Nationals offense was not projected to be anything extraordinary in 2012, but a funny thing happened on the way to mediocrity. Bryce Harper came up and put together one of the greatest age-19 seasons of all time. Ian Desmond broke out and had one of the most impressive offensive seasons of 2012 for a shortstop. Ryan Zimmerman had a first half to forget, but then remembered that he's Ryan Zimmerman for the second half. Add to those three a returning Mike Morse, new addition Denard Span, a healthy Wilson Ramos and a possibly returning Adam LaRoche. That has the makings of a well above-average offense. With Span being installed as their new leadoff hitter, and Bryce Harper a candidate for #3, don't be surprised if the right-handed Werth implants himself into that #2 spot in the lineup -- which would be great for his counting stats. Plus, it's never a bad thing when Jayson Werth sees more fastballs.

Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick (YES)

OK fine, there's no real substance here. I just wanted to link to the picture of Werth riding Teddy Roosevelt. It's my post, I make the rules.

My way too early 2013 Jayson Werth projection: .277 AVG with 19 HR, 78 RBI, 91 R and 16 SB in 530 AB.

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The Soon To Be Former Other Adam Eaton

bretsayre — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 02:14:52 -0000

With the Diamondbacks trading away Chris Young in late October, they got rid of the biggest roadblock to the success of one of the most unlikely prospects in the game. Sure, Kevin Towers is collecting outfielders like canned food during the Cold War, but no one who can handle CF on a regular basis. Enter the other Adam Eaton. For those of you who don't remember, regular Adam Eaton was a first-round pick of the Padres who went on to be a fringy starter for the entirety of the aughts. He posted an ERA+ of over 100 only once and accumulated 8 WAR for his career.

So it's not a particularly high bar to clear to be the Adam Eaton of choice in baseball history. But an unlikely alternative has arrived on the scene. To understand the long shot that the most recent Adam Eaton was, we only have to go back to 2010. Eaton was a 19th round senior sign out of Miami (Ohio) who signed for a whopping $35k bonus. As a 5'8" outfielder, Eaton has always had his share of detractors and a quick and easy reason to be overlooked. After all, even the Diamondbacks passed him over nearly 20 times before finally selecting him.

The easy thing to say here is something overly dramatic like "this is when Eaton took matters into his own hands" or "Eaton really wanted to stick it to all the teams that passed on him", but that's neither true nor instructive. Instead, Eaton's minor league stats speak for themselves:

Year	Age	Club	Lg	Class	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	GDP	OBP	SLG	OPS
2010	21	Missoula	PIO	R	.385	68	226	48	87	14	4	7	37	35	44	20	8	1	.500	.575	1.075
2011	22	Visalia	CAL	HiA	.332	65	244	54	81	15	3	6	39	42	41	24	8	2	.455	.492	.947
2011	22	Mobile	SL	AA	.302	56	212	31	64	7	4	4	28	30	35	10	6	0	.409	.429	.838
2012	23	Mobile	SL	AA	.300	11	40	11	12	1	0	0	3	6	8	6	1	0	.451	.325	.776
2012	23	Reno	PCL	AAA	.381	119	488	119	186	46	5	7	45	53	68	38	10	2	.456	.539	.995
2012	23	Arizona	NL	MAJ	.259	22	85	19	22	3	2	2	5	14	15	2	3	0	.382	.412	.794
Major League Totals					.259	22	85	19	22	3	2	2	5	14	15	2	3	0	.382	.412	.794
Minor League Totals					.355	319	1210	263	430	83	16	24	152	166	196	98	33	5	.456	.510	.966

Source: Baseball America

Yes, that's a career .355 AVG, .456 OBP, 24 HR and 98 SB in 319 games. When you hear prospect evaluators talk about how a player is going to have to hit all the way up the chain to prove himself, this is exactly what they mean. He has forced his way into Arizona's plans and now is looking at the inside track on a starting job for 2013.

So what can Eaton be at the major league level? The quick and dirty answer is a pesky lead-off hitter with plus-plus speed, strong contact skills and on base ability. He has more doubles and triples (which he could accumulate a lot of at Chase Field) power than over the fence power, but his home park will help a few extra balls leave the yard. Where he'll be able to help fantasy owners most is in the runs and steals department, and he's got the potential to be an option even in shallow leagues.

When we did the OF rankings, they were compiled prior to the Chris Young trade and Eaton was outside of my top-75. However, in light of all of the Diamondbacks roster shuffling, right now I would have him just outside the top-60. There is still potential for Eaton to lose the job to Gerardo Parra, though I don't think the odds of that are too high. There's also clearly performance risk for someone who has only had 85 AB at the major league level. But with that said, he may have the most fantasy value of any National League prospect in 2013.

The stars have officially aligned to give this long shot a chance to prove himself at the highest level of the game, and I like his chances to do so. If things go his way and Eaton runs with the job, maybe that means the next time he receives $120,000 from the MLB players association, the checks will actually be meant for him.

My way too early 2013 Adam Eaton projection: .284 AVG with 8 HR, 46 RBI, 97 R and 35 SB in 550 AB.

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In Defense of the Good Man Gary Brown

bretsayre — Mon, 24 Dec 2012 00:51:55 -0000

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, the prosecution (Craig and Jason) will attempt to sell you on the fact that Gary Brown does not have the skills required to be a prominent fantasy prospect on our collective radars. They will tell you that Brown's ranking at #30 among our OF prospects was about 75% because they think he should be there and 25% out of pity for yours truly. Well, let me make it clear -- this is just not true. The defense maintains that even though Brown is already 24 years old and struggled to match his 2011 Cal League success statistical success in the Eastern League this season, he is still easily a top-100 prospect and a top-20 OF prospect for fantasy.

In order to get a sense of why there is so much uncertainty around Brown's prospects at the major league level, let's look at him on a tools basis first. The easy ones to grade are his defense and speed, which are both plus to plus-plus tools. The speed will be particularly useful in fantasy, as that will be his calling card. Any time a player has the potential to steal a ton of bases at the highest level, we must pay attention. The defense I mention only because of the cascading effect it has on his value -- if Brown is even a remotely productive offensive player, his skill in the field will keep him in the lineup. He does have an above-average arm as well, by most accounts, though that one really doesn't matter for our purposes.

I'm sure at this point, I have not said anything which the prosecution has disagreed with. However, we have now reached the crux of the case. First, the power. I will be perfectly honest with you all, Gary Brown will never be a player you rely upon for power. He has 21 HR in over 1,100 minor league at bats, and 14 of them came in the power haven known as the Cal League. On top of that, AT&T Park is one of the worst places for RH power, registering well below-average no matter where you get your park factors from. I think he has the bat speed and ability to square up velocity to hit 12-15 HR at his peak in a neutral ballpark, but that may be moot while he's in the Giants organization.

Speaking of bat speed and ability to square up velocity, we have to talk about his hit tool and how this will translate to his potential major league success, as everything else we've talked about up to this point relies upon it. If it becomes an average to above-average tool, Brown will be a fantasy stud and occasional All-Star. If it's a below-average tool, he may be relegated to dreaded fourth outfielder status. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is where you must cast your vote. At the end of play on June 12, Brown was sitting on a .238/.317/.310 line with 2 HR and 16 SB in 246 AB. Those numbers from a 24-year old in Double-A reek of reserve outfielder. However, from June 13 to the end of the season, Brown hit a much more robust .315/.356/.452 with 5 HR and 17 SB in 292 AB.

Those numbers from mid-June to the end of the season are a lot closer to the .336/.407/.519 line he put up in the Cal League in 2011, and considering the difference in offensive environments, it's reasonable to say the Double-A line was more impressive. So are there any reasons we should take his latter half of the season as closer to his talent level going forward than the former?

Bernie Pleskoff, a former scout and current contributor to MLB.com, said at the SABR conference just last month that Brown "made the most significant mechanical change of anyone I've seen from spring training (of 2012) to now." He also added, "When I saw him in March, he couldn't reach a ball on the outside part of the plate. But he's made some adjustments and now he's on his way." Yes, the prognostication here is just the thoughts of one man, but the confirmation of changes to Brown's swing is the important takeaway here. And because of that, and the success he had during the second half of the season, I'm not willing to throw him down the OF prospect mineshaft.

So, in conclusion, Brown will more than likely start 2013 at Triple-A and has a clear path to playing time if he hits out of the gate (he has the daunting Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres ahead of him on the depth chart). I expect him to do so, especially given that he'll be operating in the Pacific Coast League, another hitters haven. And while he has developed more risk over the last year, I still think he has nearly the same potential upside as when he was ranked #17 on last year's Top 100 Dynasty League Prospect List. Don't let the souring on his prospect status fool you, Brown is still fully capable of being a .280/.340/.420 hitter with 7-10 HR and 35+ steals (which was essentially his line this year in Double-A) -- with upside everywhere on top of that. After all, it was only 11 months ago that Kevin Goldstein (formerly at Baseball Prospectus) said of Brown's upside: "Brown has the potential to be a fantasy monster with a high batting average, 15-20 home runs, and 50 stolen bases annually."

I implore you, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, do not give up on the good man Gary Brown. While he has undoubtedly lost some of his prospect shine, the light within him still burns bright.

The defense rests.

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Fake Teams Staff Post: I Think I'll Pass - Outfielders

bretsayre — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 23:47:19 -0000

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their least favorite outfield targets for 2013:

"Sometimes when you're low on a player, it's less about the player himself than about the suitable alternatives who can be had later on. A player who can hit 5-10 HR, steal 25-30 bases, score 90 runs and hit for an average that won't hurt you, is a valuable guy. But my only question is why would you reach for those stats where Angel Pagan is going to go in drafts? Pagan was the 56th ranked OF in our collective ranks, but further down that list, you have guys like Ichiro (64), Alejandro de Aza (65), Adam Eaton (72), Denard Span (NR) and Jon Jay (NR). All of these players are projected to hit either first or second in their respective lineups and possess the same type of statistical skill set. So use that earlier pick on a starting pitcher or a risky closer, and come back to grab one of these other guys later on to fill out your OF." --Bret Sayre

"Curtis Granderson may be an ideal fit for the short porch at Yankee Stadium, but he's not an ideal fit for my fantasy team. The last three seasons, Granderson has averaged an impressive 36 home runs, but he's also seen his strikeout rate (career worst 28.5 percent in 2012) and contact rates decline significantly over the same period, leading to a fantasy team-dragging .232 batting average in 2012. Granderson turns 32 next season, and it's very possible we start to see the outfielder decline significantly over the next year or two. We've already seen an example of it in his steal numbers (25 in 2011; 10 in 2012), and it's only a matter of time before we see it in other areas, too. I still think he will put up 30-plus home runs, but I don't want a big chunk of my outfield production depending on whether or not Granderson can continue to offset his average with enough power and speed." --Alex Kantecki

"Look, I don't have anything against Mark Trumbo. The man gives a great interview. I'm not however buying Mark Trumbo as a top 30ish outfield option for 2013. He ended up at 36 in our consensus ranking, but I was the only outlier there as Ray, Bret and Jason had him at 30, 31, and 30 respectively. I was WAY low on him, ranking him down in the 60s. It is a bit of a surprising ranking, even to me. I care not for my neighbor's wife, but I covet the hell out of some power. So why rank him so low? It's not that I believe Trumbo's power is illegitimate, but his absolute collapse down the 2012 stretch concerns me. Trumbo got off to a hot start, buoyed by a renewed sense of discipline at the plate, and his numbers were through the roof. It didn't last however, tailing off starting in June. His power numbers remained excellent though, and that's why you're drafting him, right? Well, those plummeted in the second half of the season where Trumbo posted a putrid 630 OPS. Perhaps he wore down as the season went on - which would be less of an issue in 2013 as he becomes a full-time DH, a transition that should be an issue given his 948 OPS at the position last year. That said, perhaps pitchers figured out he struggles to talk a walk and feasts on fastballs, and thusly pitched him backwards. I'm not willing to bank a top 30ish OF ranking on him suddenly figuring it out given his backslide last season. He's got prodigious power, but he's also got a long swing and a quick trigger. He'll give you power with no on base and limited runs. You can generally find those guys fairly cheaply later on. I'm rooting for the guy, I'm just not optimistic." --Craig Goldstein

"I am the type of fantasy manager that will typically not use a player's age against him. For reference see my third base target of Aramis Ramirez earlier in the ranking series, as well as my defending of Paul Konerko for one more year. There are players, actually positions, where I am less optimistic however, and that's in regards to aging outfielders (especially National League players who do not have the option to DH from time to time) For this very reason, Carlos Beltran is my player to avoid in 2013. Beltran will play the majority of 2013 at the ripe age of 36. As Ray pointed out earlier in the week, Beltran's season has two very distinct halves. The first half saw Beltran slash his way to a .296/.382/.542 line, while the second half dropped to a .236/.302/.440 line. My main concern with Beltran and in particular his age in 2013 is the chance of an injury taking away a chunk of his season. His 151 games played in 2012 was his most played since 2008, and as I mentioned above, not having the chance to DH and having to patrol the outfield daily is not the best option for any player over the age of 35. While I do expect his batting average to actually rise some in 2013, the odds of breaking 25 homers, let alone 30, is not something I'd want to invest heavily in come draft day next year." --Dave Morris Jr.

"To me, Bryce Harper is the perfect storm of paying for the ceiling of his performance at your draft this year. Our consensus rankings have Harper as the #12 outfielder overall, and while I think he will have a very good year, if you have to draft him in the first three rounds to get him, you will need him to have that kind of year to get back your draft value. I just don't see a way that he ends up paying back the value you'll need based on that kind of draft position." --Jason Hunt

"I really like Giancarlo Stanton. He could hit 40+ home runs, drive in over 100, and score over 90. Those numbers, even without his .270 batting average easily put him in the first round of a 15 team mixed league draft. The only problem I see is that the Marlins traded away anyone who can help him get those numbers. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Juan Pierre fan, but he's not Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez. And did you ever think they would miss Carlos Lee? (Technically they may get Carlos back, but I am not counting on that) Things are bad. Just who is Giancarlo going to drive in or get driven in by? Solo home runs? What ‘ev. In 2013, Stanton is a top 15 outfielder, but I think he will only return top 30-35 overall-value. That puts him at the back end of the second round, or top of the third round in my book. Most likely he will be drafted in the first round and I cannot pay that price for a one-man-team." --Brad Dengler

"I am the low man on Bautista in our consensus rankings, as I see him struggling out of the gate after having wrist surgery. Wrist injuries sap hitters power, so I see his power numbers dropping in 2013. Couple that with a low batting average, albeit with a high OBP, I see Bautista disappointing some owners next season. Will he hit 40 HRs in 2013? I don't think so. Will he hit 30 HRs in 2013? I think he can. But also consider the fact that his power, as measured by ISO was in a 2 year downtrend before the wrist injury. Case in point-Vernon Wells fractured his wrist way back in 2008, missing 50+ games. The following year, after hitting 20+ home runs in 6 of his previous 7 seasons, he hit just 15 HRs in 158 games in 2009." -- Ray Guilfoyle

Fake Teams Staff Post: Who's My Outfielder?

bretsayre — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 01:29:24 -0000

Each week, when we cover a position here at Fake Teams, in addition to all of the content you've been seeing, we're going to be doing two staff posts where each of the writers will contribute a brief comment on a player they will personally be targeting in drafts and a player they will be avoiding. Because we're generally an optimistic group here, we're going to start with a player each of us thinks is a good value. Come back tomorrow to find out who the guys we're avoiding are.

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their favorite outfield targets for 2013:

"What a long strange journey it's been for Yoenis Cespedes. First there was the workout video, and then...well what more do you really need? I was the highest on him of our FakeTeams rankers, even if it was just by a little. I'm not sure why others wouldn't be on him though. 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases in only 129 games? I'll take it. Pair that production with a .292/.356/.505 slash line and you're looking at a highly talented player producing in his prime. Think about it... a .505 slugging percentage in OAKLAND! Throw in the A's getting to beat up on a Houston team that threw in the towel on 2013 in July...of 2011 and the fences moving in at Safeco, and you're looking at a serious power player. He did miss 31 games due to injury in 2012 but 22 of those were due to a freak hand strain he suffered on a swing. If he proves to be healthier in 2013, you're looking at a potential 30/20 guy on the optimistic end, and maybe a little less than that on average. Cespedes doesn't walk a ton, but with a BB% of 8%, he's doing OK. He doesn't strike out much considering his prodigious power potential, another aspect in his favor. Really, the statistics are nice, but if you weren't convinced by that video, my words are falling on deaf ears." --Craig Goldstein

"In the past three seasons, Corey Hart has averaged 29 home runs, and, as Ray pointed out in the Fake Teams consensus rankings, only 17 players have hit more home runs since 2010. Ranked 29th by our writers, Hart provides great value as a No. 3 outfielder capable of putting up 30-plus home runs with 90 runs and 80 RBI. He's a career .276 hitter, and you should be able to squeeze some extra steals out of him in 2013 -- he had five in 2012, his lowest total since 2006. I admit, Hart probably won't outperform his ranking by more than five spots in 2013, but he's a safe player to round out your outfield. I'd take Hart over Alex Rios, Shin-Soo Choo and Michael Morse." --Alex Kantecki

"While speed has become a lot more plentiful in the past few seasons, I like the value that a player like Michael Bourn can provide a bit later in drafts. He's known for his speed, but lost a bit in the ether is the fact that he also provides you with an elite level in runs each season, and a solid batting average. Whether you believe in the power remains to be seen (I think he returns to around 5 homers this year or less), but the skills he provides also allow you a lot more flexibility on draft day, as you can take a risk on someone with an Adam Dunn profile (all power, no average, no speed) later on in your draft." --Jason Hunt

"After hitting 23 homers with 17 stolen bases, to go along with a .303/.376/.502 triple slash in 2011, Alex Gordon took a small step back in 2012. While his 14 homers were not the 20 or so many fantasy owners had projected coming into the season, his 51 doubles should ease any doubts you may have regarding power in 2013. On top of that, Gordon continued to reach base at a well above average rate, drawing a walk in 10.1% of his trips to the plate. I've always been a sucker for a player with power potential, some speed, and the ability to reach base even when he's not hitting the ball well, as it reduces the risks of a complete disaster season. Doubles, while they won't help you in the home run roto category, will drive in runs, and a high on base percentage helps reduce the chance a player underperforms his run projection. On top of that doubles often times turn into homers the following season, which makes projecting 18-20 homers for Gordon a pretty safe power projection. While Gordon has been above .290 in terms of batting average the previous two seasons, his BABIP and xBA all suggest a .277-.280 BA is more likely, and should be considered when ranking/creating auction values in 2013. A .280 batting average, 20 homer, 10 SB, with 170 combined runs/rbi's is a very safe number 2 outfielder who should return value, making Alex Gordon my outfielder to target in 2013." --Dave Morris Jr.

"It was only ten months ago when I posted my pre-season dynasty league prospect rankings -- and the question I was asked most was 'why are you so high on Starling Marte' (I had him at 29th overall)? Well, it turns out I'm the high man on Marte again this time around. The reasoning is simple, and it hasn't really changed since the 2012 pre-season. He's very similar to Lorenzo Cain (who I have ranked two spots ahead of Marte in my personal list) in that he can help you everywhere. Yes, the .257 average from 2012 wasn't anything to write home about, but I expect him to raise that as he lowers his strikeout rate -- his ability to barrel the ball, along with his speed, should also allow him to maintain a BABIP higher than league average. Apart from that, he has average power, is a threat to steal 30 bases and will likely lead off for the Pirates in 2013 (where he spent 154 of his 182 PA last year). He's a solid fourth OF in 12-team leagues, as long as you're not counting OBP -- as the man doesn't like to walk." --Bret Sayre

"What does it mean to target a player? It can mean that you absolutely want him on your team, but unless you have the first pick in your draft, that strategy does not always work. It can mean that you will reach for a guy in a draft, to make sure he is on your team. That can work, but a game of chicken can leave you empty handed if it does not work or leave you without players that could have helped you more if it does work. I like to target a player by waiting on him because I think I can, all the while not necessarily needing him, if I do not get him. That game only works if you target back-of-the-draft guys like Angel Pagan. Fake Teams has him ranked at 56 in the OF class of 2013, and I think that is about right. However, if healthy, Mr. Pagan can return top-30 value, maybe more. You cannot ignore his injury history, and the fact that he is 31, but Angel is a player you can probably wait for in your draft, and who can potentially give you 81 runs, 7 HRs, 56 RBI, 28 steals, and bat .280. I'll take that for a fourth outfielder in a 15 team league, any day." --Brad Dengler

"When drafting your team on draft day, you should draft a mix of players, some who are consistent year in and year out, some who are bounce back candidates, and some sleepers later in your draft. One guy who I feel is one of the more consistent hitters in baseball is Nationals outfielder Michael Morse. He is a personal favorite of mine even though I have never owned him. Morse hit .291-.321-.470 with 18 HRs, 53 runs and 62 RBI in just 102 games last season. After missing the first two months of the season, Morse hit .299 or better in three of the last four months of the season. In 2011, he hit .303-.360-.550 with 31 HRs, 73 runs, and 95 RBI. His 2011 monthly splits showed he struggled in April and September (hitting .211 and .237 respectively), but hit .299 or better from May through August, and slugged .500 or higher in five of six months. Morse is an undervalued hitter in fantasy leagues and I suggest targeting him on draft day." -- Ray Guilfoyle

Prospect Profile: Don't Let Brian Goodwin Fly Under the Radar

bretsayre — Tue, 18 Dec 2012 01:44:44 -0000

*The following post originally ran on November 8, 2012 at The Dynasty Guru. Check it out for more specific keeper/dynasty league content.

This past Saturday, Brian Goodwin stepped onto the biggest stage of his career thus far - the Arizona Fall League's Rising Stars game - and made his presence known. In his first at bat, he turned on a Kyle Gibson fastball and hit it out of the yard. Later on, he doubled and crushed another ball on which Billy Hamilton made a great diving catch in deep CF; finishing the game 2-5. But this is just one game, let's step back and take a look at Brian Goodwin, the baseball player.

Drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2011 draft (33rd overall) by the Washington Nationals, Goodwin was arguably the top junior college player available in that draft. Though he was not the first JC player taken in 2011 - Cory Spangenberg went 10th overall to the Padres. Goodwin fell to the supplemental round due to a supposedly high price tag and a very deep draft class, as some scouts considered him to be a top half of the first round talent. The Nationals certainly made it worth his while to sign, paying him a $3m signing bonus.

While I have not had the opportunity to write about him much yet, my fellow owners in dynasty leagues can attest to the fact that I'm one of the drivers of Goodwin's bandwagon. Right now, I own him in three different leagues. I drafted him prior to last season in the 18-team dynasty league I discussed at the end my most recent Rebuilding a Dynasty League Roster piece. I traded for him in the league which has been the focus of that series as part of a challenge trade also involving Shelby Miller and Brett Jackson, which I discussed here. And finally, I just finished participating in a dispersion draft for a new league I joined (yes, another one) and took Goodwin over the likes of Matt Barnes and Jake Odorizzi with my first pick (the minor league talent was sparce). In fact, before the 2012 season, I ranked him as the #77 OF in my Dynasty League Prospect Rankings - all of that before he had even played in a professional game.

So that leads us to the inevitable question: why? What is it about Goodwin that gets me excited as a dynasty league owner? The short answer is: everything. At the plate, Goodwin has plus bat speed, which allows him to both make strong contact in the present and give him above average power potential down the road. With that said, the potential was at least reasonably on display in his first minor league season - in 441 AB between Low-A, Double-A and the AFL, Goodwin had 14 HR and 51 XBH. On the basepaths, Goodwin has easy plus speed and projects to be a 20-30 steal threat at the major league level, with the upside for more.

The kicker with Goodwin is his plate discipline, which is a strength for him. In his first taste of pro ball at Low-A, Goodwin had 43 BB to 39 K in 216 AB, which led to a .438 OBP. His BB/K rate slipped when he was promoted to Double-A, but then again, it was a two-level jump - and his walk rate was back up in the AFL. Why this is so important to Goodwin's future fantasy value is that if he is a .360-.370 OBP guy, he's very likely to hit either 1st or 2nd in the Nationals lineup once he hits the majors. This is a big deal, as it would put him in position to put up very nice counting stats. Could he be the player who hits directly in front of a Harper/Zimmerman/Morse middle of the order? Absolutely.

And he could be that player as soon as the second half of this coming season. This obviously depends on what the Nationals do in free agency, but if they do not sign a Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton, they are likely to go into spring training with Bryce Harper manning CF. This leaves a number of paths to Goodwin getting a call to the majors. It could be an injury to any one of Harper, Werth, LaRoche and Morse - and the last I checked, these weren't exactly the greatest bastions of health. [Editorial note: since writing this, the Nats traded for Denard Span. And although that reduces the chances of Goodwin making his ML debut in 2013, Span's not the type of player to get in Goodwin's way if he develops into the player he can be]

More realistically, Goodwin should be penciled into the Nationals lineup starting in the first half of 2014. And his solid plate discipline should give him a better chance to succeed in his first taste of the majors than prospects without that profile. In his prime, you're looking at a potential 20-20 threat on an annual basis who won't hurt you in batting average. If you're talking about a stat line, something like .270/.360/.450 sounds realistic if he becomes the player he is capable of.

So why is Goodwin not getting more love in dynasty leagues? He was not a high draft pick, he's overshadowed in a system full of crazy upside talents like Harper/Rendon and he hasn't been on the scene for very long. But don't let that fool you, he is going to be an easy top-50 prospect for me when my ranks come out later this off-season and the time to sneak him by your fellow league owners is running out. Saturday certainly didn't help his under the radar status, but Goodwin has more helium in his back pocket. There are still some good seats available on this bandwagon.

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.
Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru.

The State of the Outfield Position

bretsayre — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 05:42:20 -0000

You're going to see a lot of information this week on individual outfielders, whether it's player profiles, rankings or prospect information. But before we get into those specifics, it can be very helpful to take a step back. The idea behind this State of the Position series, which will run at the beginning of each week of coverage, is to give you a sense of what to expect from the position as a whole in various types of leagues.

The Overview

Whether it's anecdotal or not, the outfield position as a whole feels a lot riskier these days than it used to be. You have your usual studs at the top, including some very fresh faces, and a solid level of steady performers, but by the time you get into the 25-30 range, you start hitting lots of players with warts. This makes the position into both a land of opportunity and a game of battleship. Will Hunter Pence bounce back from his miserable second half? Will Josh Willingham have another age-defying and health-defying season? Will Carl Crawford show glimpses of his old self? Is Mark Trumbo the stud we saw in the first half or the disaster we saw in the second? So many questions, so few answers.

What is not anecdotal however, is the fact that there is more power at the position than there has been in recent years. While batting average (.263, .261, .262) and stolen bases (1758, 1888, 1846) have stayed relatively stagnant over the past three seasons, home runs jumped up in 2012 by more than 200 from either of the previous two seasons - 1881, 1894, 2109. This materialized itself both in the high-end performers and the depth. In 2012, there were more 35 HR seasons (5) than in the last two years combined (4) at the position. And if you lower the bar to 30 HR, it was 15 in 2012 and 15 in 2010/2011 combined. This is part of the reason why I made the argument to make sure to get speed at SS when everyone also is getting speed - it's much easier to find power later on in the OF than to make up speed you missed elsewhere.

The League Breakout

In the official Fake Teams consensus ranks (which will be coming out in subsequent posts), the National League leads the America League in our top-75 by a score of 38 to 37. That's about as close as you can get, and it will likely change based on where the remaining free agents sign. So while overall there's not much of a difference in the pool of talent, the brunt of that discrepancy is in the top-end. Among our top-13 OF for 2013, 10 of them are from the National League - and one is still a free agent. So if you want a premium guy in AL-only leagues, you're looking at Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton (maybe) and Adam Jones (if you consider a premium guy, which I don't). On the other hand, you could sneeze and catch a top OF in NL-only leagues.

So, for those of you in NL-only leagues, the landscape will dictate a rush to quality. If you are not carrying a top-flight OF, you're going to potentially be at a disadvantage among league mates. Fortunately, as I mentioned before, the studs run deep and there are no fewer than eight guys to consider as anchors for the position. Once you grab a top option, I'd hang back and grab less expensive players later on - as the depth of the position is still impressive. In AL-only leagues, I'd do the same thing except for the stud (since there aren't many). Let the rest of your league mates fight over Trout and Hamilton, and grab four OF for the price of their stud. The players you can grab elsewhere instead (whether it's a snake draft or an auction) are more worth your attention early on. You can always find a decent OF option later - and you can't say that about too many other positions this year.

How Deep is Your Love?

While the strategies may be different between leagues of varying overall depths, the variation of number of OF spots and/or extra DH spots will skew how you should treat this group of players going into your draft this spring. If your league only has three OF spots, you need to view the position much differently than if you have five. The more total OF who have starting jobs in your league, the more important that middle range (40-60) are going to be to you. I have talked about depth, but if you're getting to the 90th or 100th OF on the board, the depth will swing the other way when compared to other positions.

Additionally, if you play in a league that breaks out the outfield by position (LF/CF/RF), it adds another layer of complexity to your draft board. Fortunately, OF is very well spread out among the three positions, including many players who have multiple eligibility. In years past, centerfield may have been the hardest spot to fill with an offensive contributor, but the position has found an amazing resurgence. In fact, of the top 16 OF in our rankings, 8 of them will head into 2013 with CF eligibility.

The Strategy in Mixed Leagues

I've already hinted at this in the league breakout section, but in the context of other positions, outfield is one that you can wait on. Even when you get into the bottom of our consensus top-75, you get potential strong power guys like Dayan Viciedo and Carlos Quentin and potential strong speed guys like Adam Eaton and Ben Revere. Based on the make-up of your team during the early and middle stages of your draft, you can choose end-game players who fit what your needs are.

In both shallow and deep mixed leagues, my strategy will likely be similar: grab one big shot OF and wait on the rest until the value is there. If you wait too long to take your first OF, you may get stuck with your top guy being Austin Jackson or Alex Rios - not that there's anything wrong with the two of them, but you want to have one guy you can take to the bank a little more. Additionally, if I'm in a league where more than 90 OF will be starters, I will probably make sure my final guy or two are in the 60-70 range, as opposed to dipping my toes into the Justin Ruggiano/Scott Hairston pool.

The Rest of the Week

Now that we've covered the position from a macro perspective, it's time to dig into the players. Ray will be bringing you the first part of our 2013 consensus positional rankings next (in just a few short hours), so stay tuned for that - along with our outfield prospect coverage which starts tomorrow morning with Jason and Craig. The rest of the writing staff here will be working on bringing you in-depth profiles and sleeper picks. We've got a lot of information coming your way for both the rest of this week and the rest of the off-season, so empty some space in your brain and be prepared for an informational avalanche. Remember, if you haven't started your 2013 draft prep yet, you're already behind someone in your league (especially if you play in a league with me).

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.
Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru.

Fake Teams Staff Post: I Think I'll Pass - Third Basemen

bretsayre — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 05:27:51 -0000

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their least favorite third base targets for 2013:

"Look, I'm sure Chase Headley is a really nice guy. And smart too -- the man was valedictorian of his high school in Colorado. But a repeat of his completely and utterly unsustainable 21.4% HR/FB ratio (which was more than twice his career rate, including the 2012 season) is just not in the cards. Amazingly, 2012 saw the lowest fly ball rate of Chase Headley's career in conjunction with this crazy explosion of power. Let that sink in for a second. Headley is a very good baseball player, but I don't think he will hit 20 HR again in 2013 -- and I don't think he'll make up for it elsewhere. He's a perfectly good option right around the back-end of the top-10 (I had him ranked 10th on my personal list), but don't overrate the absolutely monstrous second half he had." --Bret Sayre

"It really, truly pains me to say this, but I'm going to be avoiding Chase Headley next year. I mean, I freaking love the guy. I picked him up off of the waiver wire in an 18-team league, only to see him go turbo on the NL West. He was amazing, amassing 31 homers, 17 steals, and a league-leading 115 RBIs. Alas, the home runs were four more than he had totaled in the three previous years combined, and this in a traditionally unforgiving home park. If anything screams fluke power spike, it's this. Headley's strikeout rate rose and he hit more balls in the air, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see him in the 15-20 home run range next season. He beat Petco Park in 2012, but Petco doesn't forget and it doesn't forgive. I'm looking at his draft stock with the assumption that this was a career year." --Paul Rice

"As I mentioned yesterday, I am looking for top shelf run production at the hot corner in 2013. I am perfectly okay with my third baseman putting up zero to five stolen bases over the course of the season, if it means an extra handful of homers to go along with increased runs and RBI's. After bursting onto the scene, appearing in 43 games for the Blue Jays in 2011, fantasy owners had unrealistic expectations for the fiery Canadian - Brett Lawrie, my player to avoid in 2013. Let me start by saying, Lawrie is a valuable fantasy asset. After all, he is ranked 10th in our consensus rankings and 7th in my personal converted projection to auction dollar figures at third base. I am not targeting Lawrie purely from a draft day strategy stand point. I currently have Lawrie projected for 77 runs, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 18 SB and a .282 BA, all numbers that will bolster a roto lineup. The problem with this overall skill set however, is the hole a non-traditional third baseman puts owners in on draft day. Owners who bypass Longoria, A. Ramirez or even Ryan Zimmerman are missing out on 6 to 10 homers, and in some cases 20+ RBI's, by choosing the speedy Lawrie to man their fantasy hot corner. In fact, only 35 players had 90 or more RBI's in 2012 - 7 of those players will be third base eligible in 2013. Run production and power isn't what it used to be, and straying at a position that can offer these categories is not one I suggest to owners in 2013 drafts." --Dave Morris Jr.

"David Freese was ranked No. 11 in our consensus rankings, but I think he's closer to the 15th best third baseman than the 10th. To me, Freese is what he is -- a slightly above average hitter with so-so power and little to no speed. He turns 30 in April, and there's no reason to believe his power will develop into anything more than what we saw in 2012. He has a career .150 ISO, strikes out too much, doesn't run, and hits a ton of grounders and not enough fly balls. While he does get on base at a healthy clip, you're not going to win your league by drafting a third baseman who knows how to draw a walk or two. What he did for the Cardinals in the 2011 postseason was remarkable and fun to watch, but don't mistake it for greatness. I think he takes a step back and hits 16 homers in 2013. There's a number of players ranked below Freese with more upside I'd rather have, including Manny Machado, Pedro Alvarez and Mike Moustakas." --Alex Kantecki

"I think that the key for me with Pablo Sandoval is this: Someone in your league is going to draft him on the assumption that he will return to 23-25 home runs, either because of it being an odd year, or because they saw his 3 home run game off of Verlander, or some other reason. I would tend to agree with Ray's projection that he will hit for a good average and 15-20 home runs, but he seems to me like the perfect candidate at the hot corner to be drafted a round too early on the basis of that World Series game. It just won't be me." --Jason Hunt

"After taking a closer look at David Freese when writing the player profiles for our 2013 Consensus Third Base Rankings, I am going to avoid him in drafts next season. I want a big power bat at third base in my draft, and I think I would prefer to take Pedro Alvarez, even with the low batting average. The stat that stood out for me is the number of ground balls he hits relative to the number of fly balls he hits. His 1.98 ground ball to fly ball ratio was the 17th highest in all of baseball last year with guys like Jamey Carroll, Derek Jeter, Michael Bourn and Elvis Andrus ranked ahead of him. Don't get me wrong, he is an excellent hitter. But I think his power is limited, especially considering he hit 20 home runs last season with a 20% HR/FB rate. Combine that with him being injury prone, and I will happily draft my third baseman a few rounds earlier." -- Ray Guilfoyle

"I will admit that I come to this subject with some bias. I am not a Pedro Alvarez believer. I spent a summer interning in the press box at the Potomac Nationals and saw plenty of Alvarez as he came through in the Carolina League. He stepped in the bucket almost every time, and while he could hit the ball, I could almost only focus on his flaws. That still persists today, despite the 30 home run season he just posted in 2012, I have trouble believing he can replicate it. This is a player with slumps so bad that he was sent to the minors on more than one occasion. He appears to me to be more of a mistake hitter, and he benefited from some luck in 2012. He had a HR/FB rate of 25%, 8.5% higher than his career high and a 15% improvement over 2011. I concede he has the strength to continue this type of pace, though I would anticipate some regression. What I can't believe is that he can give you any sort of help - or even avoid hurting you in batting average (a la 2012) with a 30% strikeout rate. I would not expect any sort of change in that rate, as it's been highly consistent across his 3 partial seasons in the majors. While he has the ability and strength to hit 30 home runs over the course of a full season, he has the swing and miss ability to sink your season and his own. Many people are "on" Alvarez and I think he has enough risk of getting sent down to the minors that he won't be worth his draft day value. Caveat Emptor." -- Craig Goldstein

Fake Teams Staff Post: Who's My Third Baseman?

bretsayre — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 05:09:51 -0000

Each week, when we cover a position here at Fake Teams, in addition to all of the content you've been seeing, we're going to be doing two staff posts where each of the writers will contribute a brief comment on a player they will personally be targeting in drafts and a player they will be avoiding. Because we're generally an optimistic group here, we're going to start with a player each of us thinks is a good value. Come back tomorrow to find out who the guys we're avoiding are.

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their favorite third base targets for 2013:

"At No. 17 in our consensus rankings, Mike Moustakas has the ability to provide tremendous value on draft day. The third baseman made his major league debut in the second half of 2011 and held his own, catching the eyes of fantasy owners after hitting a robust .352/.380/.580 in September to close out his rookie year. Naturally, Moustakas was a trendy sleeper pick in 2012 drafts as a third baseman capable of putting up big power numbers. Well, it didn't quite work out that way, but it wasn't all bad. In the end, Moustakas hit 20 home runs with 73 RBI (and five steals) to go along with a sluggish .242/.296/.412 line. His power and production really slipped in the second half of the year, but that's expected of a player in his first full season. Had he continued his first half pace, we're talking about a third baseman creeping around 25 home runs, 80 runs and 80 RBI. And wouldn't you know, that's what I project for Moustakas in 2013. His power potential -- he hit a total of 36 home runs in his last full year in the minors -- is too great to pass up." --Alex Kantecki

"Call it an irrational love affair if you want, but I'm sticking with Mike Moustakas for my guy to target in 2013. While Moose didn't show a heck of a lot of plate discipline in 2012, the one major encouraging part of his season was that he saw his power spike while his strikeouts remained under control. Yes, his K% rose, but not to the point where he's an unplayable category killer, or even close. Moustakas demonstrated the ability to combine good power, good contact, and ability to hit for high averages in the minors. The 20-homer power arrived last season; now it's only a matter of time before the line drives start finding holes. Remember, it took some time for him to get adjusted when he first turned pro. He's my pick for a breakout year at this position." --Paul Rice

"There's a very realistic part of my brain that keeps telling me that a 20-year old with only 200 major league at bats is not just going to completely explode. But then there's another part of my brain that just yells constantly about Manny Machado. He is going to develop more strength and plate discipline in time, but his talent is so great that I'm willing to reach for him a little bit in case that happens in 2013. By the time you get down to the 10-15 range at this position, you're either dealing with more boring players or guys who come with pretty serious question marks. Why not take a shot on a player who could hit .285 with 25 HR and 15 SB (and potentially gain SS eligibility if Hardy gets hurt)?" --Bret Sayre

"I am targeting a 'boring' skill set when it comes to third base in mixed leagues for 2013. I don't need stolen bases; I don't need an empty 15-20 homer - batting average guy. I want a middle of the order, run producing, .280-.290 old school player at the hot corner. I am targeting Aramis Ramirez in 2013. At age 34 Ramirez had a great first season with the Brewers, slashing his way to a .300/.360/.540 line in 149 games. 2012 was Aramis' third straight season with at least 25 homers, and he cracked the 100 RBI mark for the first time since 2008. On top of the run production, Aramis set a career high in doubles with 50. That mark was tied for second best in all of baseball with Albert Pujols, one behind Alex Gordon's 51. After getting off to a slow start, hitting .214 with 2 homers in April, Aramis would start to heat up in May and continue to mash the ball for the remainder of the season. From July on, Aramis would hit .373, .305 & .321 with 18 of his 27 long balls during that time frame. Ramirez also added 9 stolen bases (career high) to his 2012 roto line, but don't count on that going forward. Some owners may worry about his age, as he'll turn 35 this coming June, but nothing in his profile indicates a major slowdown is coming in 2013. If you can, take advantage of the age discount that may present itself in draft rooms next year." --Dave Morris Jr.

"Paul Rice has a piece on my guy later today. My guy is Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez. I ranked ARam as my #4 overall fantasy third baseman for 2013 in our rankings earlier this week, as I was the high man among the four Fake Teams writers participating in the consensus rankings for 2013. Dave broke down how well he performed in 2012, but here are a few more facts about the soon to be 35 year old third baseman. His 27 HRs, 92 runs and .300 BA ranked 5th at the position last year, while his 105 RBI ranked 3rd at the position. He tossed in 9 stolen bases, a career high, as well. I think his performance was in response to the naysayers who said he would have a down year with the move from Chicago to Milwaukee. As you can see, it was quite the opposite. I recently traded for Ramirez in one of my NL-only keeper leagues, and see him putting up a year similar to 2012 next season. He doesn't have the name value of an Evan Longoria or Miguel Cabrera, but he should be a top 5-6 fantasy third baseman yet again in 2013." --Ray Guilfoyle

"Be it because I was (am) a Dodgers fan who gleefully watched his assault on National League pitchers in 2004 after years and years of promise, or because I bought low on him in my most important fantasy league prior to the 2010 season, or just because I enjoy watching what happens when teammates touch his head...my guy is Adrian Beltre. This isn't any kind of sexy pick. He's not stealthy, he's not flying under anyone's radar. What he is is damn good. Beltre is guaranteed to miss sometime with a hamstring strain or some other injury, but it just doesn't matter. He still produces. In his last three seasons, he's hit .321, .297, and .321 respectively. He's hit 28, 32, and 36 home runs, respectively. He's driven in 102, 105, and 102, respectively. He's scored 84, 82, and 95 runs, respectively. At 34, you can say he's going to start breaking down at some point - but he's already proven he can produce in limited playing time. He plays in a great park for hitting, he plays on a great team for driving in and scoring runs, and he's shown no sign of slowing down. But hey, if you want to choose any other third baseman well, respectfully, I disagree." --Craig Goldstein

"Pedro Alvarez remains to me a very nice source of power further down in drafts. His HR/FB rate spiked in 2012 (25%), but it also came with a decreased flyball rate (34% vs 39% in 2010) and an improved ground ball rate (46% versus 55% in 2011). He's never going to provide you with a great batting average, but I could see a repeat of the 30 home runs he hit last year, and it will be available much later in drafts than nearly all of the other top power threats." --Jason Hunt

The State of the Third Base Position

bretsayre — Sat, 08 Dec 2012 01:43:59 -0000

You're going to see a lot of information this week on individual third basemen, whether it's player profiles, rankings or prospect information. But before we get into those specifics, it can be very helpful to take a step back. The idea behind this State of the Position series, which will run at the beginning of each week of coverage, is to give you a sense of what to expect from the position as a whole in various types of leagues.

The Overview

It's very easy to notice the difference between the third base position for 2013 drafts and the third base position for 2012 drafts. The top-10 alone has three new names in it -- two who have gained eligibility from another position (Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez) and one, in Chase Headley, who had a true breakout season in 2012. And that's not even taking into account the two new faces in the AL East, Will Middlebrooks and Manny Machado, who are in that next group down. On top of that, the only players the position lost from last year were outside the top-15 -- Chipper Jones to retirement and both Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Reynolds to 1B (E5 had a great season, but ranked 18th at 3B in the pre-season).

One additional thing you'll notice when you look across the position categorically is that there's very little speed to speak of -- though that should not come as much of a surprise. In fact, in 2012, only Hanley Ramirez and Chase Headley stole more than 15 bases from the position. This is what gives players like Hanley, Wright, Brett Lawrie (who stole 13 bases in just 125 games) a little extra boost in value -- as when the entire position combines for less than 300 SB, having a guy who can steal 20 (in addition to contributing in the power categories) can give you a nice advantage. For reference, that's nearly half of what 2B and SS provided in the category and only about 100 more than the SB production at first base.

The League Breakout

In the official Fake Teams consensus ranks (which will be coming out in subsequent posts), the National League leads the American League in our top-25 by a score of 13 to 12. The interesting part is that the leagues break out in very different ways, with the American League hogging most of the star power and the National League claiming most of the useful depth. In fact, after the top three guys off the board (Miggy, Beltre, Longoria -- All AL), 9 out of the next 12 on the list are from the senior circuit.

The different strengths of each league lead to very different strategies for single league participants. In AL-only leagues, I'm doing what I can to get one of the big three guys. There's a big drop-off after them and the owners who don't have their position filled early on will get into bidding wars for the likes of Brett Lawrie, Manny Machado and Kyle Seager -- then before you're looking at A-Rod and Youkilis. Not ideal. In NL-only leagues, sit back and let the market dictate where you go. David Wright is the biggest name, but that whole group of A-Ram, Zimmerman, Panda and others have considerable upside. You just don't want to wait too long, as the pool really dries up very quickly once guys like Todd Frazier, Michael Young and Eric Chavez are off the board. After that, you're effectively down to Luis Cruz and Matt Dominguez -- and that might put you squarely behind the 8-ball.

Playing Russian Roulette

Third base has settled into a position which is more about the known than the unknown, which can lull owners into a sense of security they probably shouldn't have. Yes, there are a lot of options and most of them are pretty reliable, but every year one of the big guys at the position gets hurts and puts your team at a severe disadvantage. In 2012, it was Evan Longoria, who only managed to play in 74 games after tearing his hamstring. In 2011, it was David Wright, who not only missed more than 60 games, but played poorly even when he was healthy. And the problem is that all of these players are getting older.

Of the top-8 players at the position, only Evan Longoria will be younger than 29 years old for the majority of the 2013 season -- and he comes with his more injury risk than most of his counterparts anyway. In fact, of the top-12 players at the position, Miguel Cabrera is the only one who does not have a season of 125 games played or less (because of injury reasons) on their resume in at least one of the last three years. Not to say there's really anything you can do about this, other than hope the chamber is on an empty when it's your turn, but it's at least worth mentioning as you may want to have a reserve in tow when you leave your draft.

The Strategy in Mixed Leagues

Both the depth and statistical similarities between many of the top third basemen lead to a pretty simple conclusion on draft day at the position -- set your values and see where you can get the most bang for your buck. Getting Miguel Cabrera is great, but getting Aramis Ramirez for half the price (or a 6th-7th round pick) might be even better. Same with getting David Freese for a quarter of the price. And the list goes on.

In shallow leagues, I would not only wait out the position and see where you can clean up, but I would also reach a little for Manny Machado in the later rounds of the draft. He is unlikely to go before the last four to five rounds of a 10-team draft and there's a chance he could really break out (not Mike Trout break out, but if that's the baseline for a break out these days, I give up).

In deeper leagues, I would make sure to grab one of the top-7 guys in our consensus ranks (and I'd even add Pablo Sandoval to that list, as you can tell by my individual rank of him) as it just gets pretty risky after that. And that's regardless of whether you're paying the premium you'll need to for Brett Lawrie, Will Middlebrooks and Chase Headley or waiting for a likely overpriced shot at Kyle Seager or Todd Frazier. The big guys at this position are big guys for a reason -- and they are not to be trifled with.

The Rest of the Week

Now that we've covered the position from a macro perspective, it's time to dig into the players. Ray will be bringing you the first part of our 2013 consensus positional rankings next (in just a few short hours), so stay tuned for that - along with our third base prospect coverage which starts tomorrow morning with Jason and Craig. The rest of the writing staff here will be working on bringing you in-depth profiles and sleeper picks. We've got a lot of information coming your way for both the rest of this week and the rest of the off-season, so empty some space in your brain and be prepared for an informational avalanche. Remember, if you haven't started your 2013 draft prep yet, you're already behind someone in your league (especially if you play in a league with me).

Follow me on Twitter at @dynastyguru.
Check out more of my stuff at The Dynasty Guru.

Fake Teams Staff Post: I Think I'll Pass - Shortstop

bretsayre — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 03:36:31 -0000

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their least favorite shortstop targets for 2013:

"Ian Desmond had a great 2012 season and no one can take that away from him. What I can say is that I'm not going to have him in any fantasy league next year. Too many people are going to buy into a player who had a career high HR/FB ratio last year. And when I say career high, I mean it was 18.2% when his previous career high (over 100 plate appearances) was 7.7%. That's an astonishing increase and one I think will likely regress in a big way next season. I looked at the list of players who had an 11% HR/FB (Desmond's career average including his insane 2012) to see who had the most home runs. The answer? Aaron Hill with 26 bombs. So it is possible Desmond could repeat his home run out burst even given his batted ball profile I suppose...but wait? What's that? Aaron Hill had a FB% of 44 while Desmond's was only 34.5? And that was a career high for Desmond? Look - it's possible that Desmond is just a straight up stud. I don't expect a big regression in average and I think he's a nice, solid hitter. But I do see those home runs dropping in a major way and for that reason, it's likely someone pops him before I'm willing." --Craig Goldstein

"Ian Desmond is coming off his best season as a major leaguer, as he hit .292-.335-.511 with 25 HRs, 72 runs, 73 RBI and 21 stolen bases in 2012. His batting average was bouyed by a .332 BABIP, as he experienced some luck at the plate, so we could see some regression in 2013. He hit more home runs last season than he did in 2+ years combined prior to 2012. Couple that with a tripling of his HR/FB rate from 6.0% to 18.2%, and we could see his home run totals cut in half along with a drop in his batting average. His plate discipline stats, via FanGraphs, indicate that he was a free swinger in 2012, as he swung at more pitches outside the zone (37.5% vs 30.8%), made less contact (78.2% vs 81.5%), saw more first pitch strikes (70.8% vs 61.2% - so he fell behind in the count more), and swung and missed more (11.8% vs 8.2%). Sounds like a recipe for a down year for Desmond in 2013." --Ray Guilfoyle

"Derek Jeter keeps doing his thing. In 2012, the 38-year old put together his best season since 2009, leading all shortstops in batting average (.316) and finishing second in runs (99). His season ended prematurely with a broken ankle in the ALCS, and while he shouldn't miss any time because of it, it could affect his ability to steal bases in 2013 (he had nine steals in 2012). Jeter turns 39 next season, and, sooner or later, age is going to catch up to the Yankees' captain. I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting Jeter as a top-10 option in 2013, as there are younger alternatives -- such as Asdrubal Cabrera and Ian Desmond -- capable of providing comparable stats." --Alex Kantecki

"Is this the year Derek Jeter finally shows his age? Well, a broken foot certainly won't help. Forget 38; Jeter looked just as spry as a 28-year-old in 2012, posting his best season in three years. There was no indication that he would fall off a cliff or cease to be valuable fantasy property until he broke his ankle in the ALCS against Detroit. Now the red flags are everywhere, as it's not clear that Jeter will be ready for Opening Day and ankle injuries can be tough to come back from if you're in your 20's, much less approaching 40. Jeter has been cheating father time for a few years, but with the injury and one more year under his belt, I think 2013 is the season he finally begins his ride into the sunset." --Paul Rice

"I can almost guarantee you that I will not be drafting J.J. Hardy on any of my teams this upcoming season. The reason for that has less to do with the fact that I think Hardy comes with huge downside risk (which he does), but more to do with what you need to get from your shortstop in 2013. I spoke in the State of the Position series about how if you don't get speed from your SS, you're going to have to get it back elsewhere -- and Hardy is one of the few guys you know won't give you SB (seriously, he has 1 since 2008). I don't believe Hardy will approach 30 HR again like he did in 2011, and you can get potential 20 HR players at any other position (well, besides 2B maybe). So don't overthink it from a categorical standpoint, make sure you get your speed at SS or you may find yourself reaching for a Peter Bourjos or Jordan Schafer type. And you may end up regretting that faster than a Cinnabon at a highway rest stop." --Bret Sayre

"The shortstop I'm avoiding in 2013 drafts is Hanley Ramirez. Over his last 942 at bats, HanRam's hit a pedestrian .252. Yikes. To put that into perspective, the league average in 2012 was .254. With that in mind, there is no way I'm spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a batter who is going to hurt me in batting average. His supporters will point to the 24 homeruns and 21 stolen bases, but I'm someone who likes to protect my team's batting average in the early rounds, especially in roto formats. In my opinion, Ramirez has a declining skill set, as evidenced by his 47.3% groundball rate, and career high O-Swing% of 30.5% (percentage of pitches outside the strike zone that a batter swings at). The O-Swing% hints at the possibility that Ramirez is starting to cheat at the plate, which can be a signal of decreased bat speed (see Rodriguez, Alex). I tend to follow the philosophy that I would rather jump ship a year too early than a year too late, and while Hanley could be useful in 2013, I'm not willing to spend a top pick to find out. Let someone else risk a serious case of the Dodger blues." --Jim Farley

"Which Hanley Ramirez will you be drafting? The Hanley that hit .342 and 24 HRs, drove in 106, stole 27, and scored 101, or the one who is hitting .270 and 21 HRs, driving in 71, stealing 20, and scoring 85? The first one is from the 2009 season. The next one is the average of the last three seasons. Mr. Ramirez is ranked #1 by Fake Teams. More than likely, he will be ranked in the top three to five at just about every site you visit. But, I'll pass; thanks. Don't get me wrong. Hanley will produce, but not at round one or round two levels and that is where you will have to draft him, if you want him, especially in a deep league. His last three seasons are averaged above, and the underlying stats that go with them do not indicate a rebound to anything close to 2009. And that does not even count the move to LA, and their less hitter friendly park for right handers, in addition to the fact that it yields less runs for all-handers. Will the underlying stats continue to decline, even slightly? If so, will that 20-20, .266 season I think he can have, turn from a reasonable projection to a wish and a prayer? Sorry. Not enough for me to recommend investing a first or second round draft pick." --Brad Dengler

"For me, passing on Elvis Andrus is really a matter of personal preference. Andrus is likely to provide solid performance in four categories (AVG, R, RBI, SB), and my issue stems more from where you will have to get him. Ray pegged him as likely to be drafted in the 10th round, and I believe in many leagues you might have to go sooner to get him. I feel like you can find performance that is similar at the position in later rounds, albeit with a bit more risk. I would much rather take a shot on someone like Josh Rutledge or Everth Cabrera much later than having to pay full price on a player like Andrus that early." --Jason Hunt

"I wrote yesterday about the perception surrounding Asdrubal Cabrera, and how that relates to him being a target for me in 2013. I want to double down on the perception theme this week, but this time as it relates to the young Starlin Castro, my short stop to avoid in 2013. Let me start by saying I am a big Starlin Castro fan and have been very impressed with what he's accomplished early on in his career. Castro provides production across all five scoring categories and at the age of 23 still has room to grow. That room to grow is where I believe some fantasy managers get overly optimistic when projecting next year's numbers. Just looking around the internet at early rankings I see him at 3, 7 & 1 at short stop, including the second overall short stop in our consensus rankings. I don't see Castro taking a huge step forward in the power department next year, in fact I see him hitting fewer homers in 2013. I'm not saying he won't hit 18 to even 20 down the road, but for my 2013 projections I have him at 11. I also am projecting a drop from the 25 stolen bases in 2012, to 20 next year. This is mainly due to his poor success rate (caught stealing 13 times last year) and the fact that 10 of his 25 stolen bases came in one month last year (April). We also know he'll hit between .285-.300 -- I have him projected at .293 this coming season. Personally I have Castro as the number 7 short stop in my personal rankings, behind Jimmy Rollins and ahead of Asdrubal Cabrera. So while I am not avoiding Castro from a performance standpoint, he'll more than likely be drafted earlier or for more money than I am willing to pay in 2013." --Dave Morris Jr.

Fake Teams Staff Post: Who's My Shortstop?

bretsayre — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 04:31:46 -0000

Each week, when we cover a position here at Fake Teams, in addition to all of the content you've been seeing, we're going to be doing two staff posts where each of the writers will contribute a brief comment on a player they will personally be targeting in drafts and a player they will be avoiding. Because we're generally an optimistic group here, we're going to start with a player each of us thinks is a good value. Come back tomorrow to find out who the guys we're avoiding are.

So without any further ado, I present the Fake Teams staff and their favorite shortstop targets for 2013:

"Jimmy Rollins quietly put up an excellent season for fantasy owners in 2012, hitting .250-.316-.427, which on the surface is not very good at all. Somehow that triple slash line resulted in Rollins hitting 23 HRs, scoring 102 runs, driving in 68 runs and stealing 30 bases. One can make the case that he is still a top 5 fantasy shortstop putting up numbers like that. Here is where he ranked in the 5 x 5 categories amongst all qualifying shortstops in 2012:

HRs: 3rd; Runs: 1st; RBI: tied for 6th; SBs: 3rd; BA: 15th

"He has stolen 30 bases in every year of his career, with 2010 the only season he did not steal 30 bases, as he played in just 88 games, but was well on his way to another 30 steal season before getting hurt. He also put up his second 20-30 season in the last four years in 2012, so age has yet to catch up to the Phillies shortstop. I see Rollins hitting .260 with 20 HRs, 95 runs, 65 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 2013. Rollins should be one of the the top shortstops off the board in 2013." --Ray Guilfoyle

"Ever since Jean Segura broke out back in 2010 during his stint in the Midwest League (where he was the other guy scouts noticed when they went to see Mike Trout in full-season ball), he's been someone I've been very high on. In fact, that season hinted well at what his major league potential is -- .313 with 10 HR, 79 RBI and 50 SB. The book on Segura is that he's a contact hitter. He walks less than you'd probably like him to, but he does not strike out much. He barrels balls with more pop than his size lets on. Now in Milwaukee, he should be given every shot to be the Brewers starting SS in the spring -- which he was in August and September. His 2012 major league numbers weren't that impressive on their own, but considering he had missed much of 2011 due to injury and only had around 400 AB above A-ball before getting the call, it was impressive nonetheless. If he wins the job as expected, I believe Segura can hit upwards of .280 with high single-digit HR and 30+ SB. Essentially, he can be Alcides Escobar from 2012 with a little more extra-base pop (not to mention a more favorable home park). If you're looking for a sleeper at SS, Segura is your guy." --Bret Sayre

"I tend to wait around on shortstops in the draft, so I was pretty surprised (and happy) to find Elvis Andrus barely cracking our top-10 consensus rankings. He had a big drop-off in steals from 2011 (37) to 2012 (21), but, before last year, he averaged 34 thefts over his first three seasons. I expect him to get there again. If he survives trade rumors and sticks in Texas, he'll be batting in one of the league's premiere offenses, and he should have no problem reaching 90 runs, with the possibility of hitting 100. If he reaches those marks, he's a top-5 shortstop in 2013. If he doesn't, he's still a safe top-10 option." --Alex Kantecki

"The biggest knock on Danny Espinosa is easily the strikeouts, and with good reason. That said, I am a sucker for middle infielders who can give both power and speed, and Espinosa is one of the few shortstops that has the chance to provide 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Remember, only 3 shortstops reached those numbers last season (Desmond, Ramirez, and Rollins). You're going to be able to get Espinosa later than all three of those shortstops in all likelihood, with the added bonus of having 2B eligibility as well. Understand that you're going to have to pair him with some batting average elsewhere on your team, but it's going to give you power at a position that isn't known for it." --Jason Hunt

"Coming off a monster season in which he was the 4th best shortstop in 2011, many owners had high hopes for Asdrubal Cabrera entering 2012. For quite a few owners, myself included, there was concern about the power numbers Cabrera displayed, and as such, he was lower on my draft board when compared to owners who believed he was the next big thing. The major red flags included the number of home runs that were classified as "Just Enough" (15 - second most in baseball) as well as a HR/FB rate that spiked from 4.7% and 3.0% in 2009 & 2010, to 13.3% in 2011. To be fair, his FB% did rise nearly 7% to 38.7%, so there were signs he was making more of an effort to hit the ball out, but regardless, it was safe to project a drop in the home run category for 2012. That is exactly what happened, as Cabrera hit 16 home runs in 2012, and also saw his stolen base total drop from 17 to 9. So why is a player who underperformed many expectations in 2012 my target short stop for 2013? Perception. While Cabrera was drafted too early in my opinion last year, there's a decent chance he'll go right around his 2013 converted projection to auction dollar figure in drafts this spring. I currently have Cabrera as my number 8 short stop in mixed leagues. Cabrera provides production across all five rotisserie scoring categories, and at the age of 27, is in the prime of his career. A 20/15 season for power/speed isn't out of the question. My 2013 projections: 77 runs, 16 HR, 77 RBI, 11 SB, .273 BA." --Dave Morris Jr.

"While I'm surely not the only one who thinks highly of Starlin Castro (each ranker had him in the top 3), I've always had an affinity for him. While his batting average dropped about 20 points in 2012, Castro still hit in the .280s. In the new age of depressed offense, that was plenty good enough, and he was even unlucky. Castro's BABIP of .315 might seem high if anything, but his career average before 2012 was .345. Part of BABIP is luck, but certain players have shown the ability to sustain higher averages, and I believe Starlin's over 1000 at-bats at a clip of .345 says he's due for a rebound in the average department in 2013. What I love about Castro is that you get both security and upside. He's only 23 years old, so there is the potential for more power, despite the double digits he's going to get you anyway. He's also going to swipe some bags, as he pilfered 20+ in both of the last two seasons. While I usually laud the player who draws walks because they can be productive even during a hitting slump, Castro wins my vote because I have supreme confidence in his hitting ability. He will excel in batting average, keep you afloat in home runs, and steal you some bags. Runs and RBI...probably not his strongsuit given the Cubs lineup, but he won't kill you there either. As I said earlier, Castro is my guy because he gives you security with plenty of room for growth as well." --Craig Goldstein

"Expectations. It's all about the expectations. If you drafted Erick Aybar in 2012 did you draft the player that had the 10 HR-30 steal season in 2011 or did you draft the 6 HR- 22 steal average from the three previous seasons? Did you hope that 2011 was a spring board for bigger and better things, or did you wonder if it was a potential blip? Judging from 2012's average draft position, most owners took the spring board approach, and therein lies the problem. In general, I look at the three year average, try and make adjustments that appear to fit, and go from there. For me, the 2011 season was not so much a breakout as it was just part of the overall picture. I look at Mr. Aybar and I see high single digit homeruns, 20+ steals, and a .275 average, and I am fine with that. Of course, I will be drafting said Aybar after the starting SS are gone, and I am looking for middle infielder. If I get more, that's great, but my expectations are that Erick is who he is, which, after all, is all you can say about any of us." --Brad Dengler

I know he's had his share of injuries, but the shortstop I'm targeting in 2013 drafts is Troy Tulowitzki. Let's take a quick look at what in all likelihood will represent the top three shortstops off the board shall we?

As you can see from the three year averages provided above, Tulowitzki has an elite skill set. His games played average is somewhat misleading given the fact that he missed 39 days with a fractured wrist in 2010 after being hit by a pitch. I'm willing to give him a free pass on that injury. With that said, he does appear to have a propensity for soft tissue injuries, but the bottom line is, all three of these shortstops have injury risk, with none having averaged more than 140 games played the past three seasons. If it's a toss-up on the health front, give me Tulo, who holds substantial advantages in both Isolated Power and OPS. Reyes was shipped to Toronto, and will have to play half of his games on turf, which is not very assuring given his chronic history of leg injuries. Hanley Ramirez has become a batting average liability recently, having posted averages of .243 and .257 in 2011 and 2012 respectively. I think Tulowitzki is going to fall to the 2nd or 3rd round in most formats, and at that point, I'm more than comfortable taking him, because if he can log 525+ ABs, he's still the class of the position." --Jim Farley

"Let's just get this out of the way. I freaking love Ben Zobrist. He hits home runs, scores a lot of runs, draws a ton of walks, steals bases, won't hurt your batting average, and he's eligible at three positions. Zorilla has reached 20 homers in three of the past four years, has stolen bases in the double digits four years in a row, has reached 90 walks three seasons in four, and all this while being eligible at two premium middle infield positions. Now that he can be slotted at shortstop for 2013, he's one of the five best at the position and has, frankly, been one of the more underrated fantasy producers for the past two seasons." --Paul Rice