Tip of the hat to Dan Feldman at PistonPowered who caught the following quotes from Keith Langlois in recent Pistons Mailbags:

my best guess is that they will not be exercising the amnesty clause

...

It seems unlikely to happen this summer, though.

...

As for the amnesty, I don’t anticipate the Pistons using it this off-season.

Three separate indications from Langlois that the Pistons are unlikely to use the amnesty this summer. That's about a close to a sure thing as we're gonna get.

In this day and age, it's fairly easy to get the pulse of Pistons fans, thanks to Twitter, blog comments, and things like the Pistons mailbag. It's safe to say that many, if not most, fans have given up on 2009's major acquisitions and are ready to move on. Count me among them. If Feldman is correct, and I think he is, Langlois' comments here can be read as a way to prepare fans that Gordon and Villanueva will remain around for at least one more season.

Disappointing as it may be, a careful look at the Pistons' salary profile reveals that the Pistons don't have a tremendous amount to gain by using the amnesty clause this season.

Those numbers dumped into a pretty chart after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Chris Kaman has been a divisive topic here at Detroit Bad Boys. Many have argued that Chris Kaman is an ideal fit for the Pistons. Greg Monroe may be better suited at power forward over the long-term, and he is an apt passer. A scoring big like Kaman may bring out those strengths in Monroe's game. Approaching the 2010-2011 trade deadline, a swap of Prince and Kaman was a common rumor. In a rare situation for the Pistons, the swap seemed to make sense for both trade partners, the contract length and time commitments made sense, and even rarer, the trade would result in each player returning home, presumably to wind down long, successful NBA careers.

Others have argued that Kaman's production is fool's gold, highlighting statistics that measure efficiency rather than totals. By this line of reasoning, Kaman's glaring deficiencies are masked by gaudy points and rebounds per game. In fact, those point totals come at such a high cost in terms of possessions used that Kaman's contributions do more harm than good.

Obviously, the rumored Pistons - Clippers trade never came to fruition, but judging from the Pistons Mailbag, Pistons fans remain interested in Chris Kaman. Twice in the last month, fans have asked about adding Kaman via free agency, and twice, Langlois has affirmed the Pistons interest.

After the jump, I'll take a closer look at Chris Kaman's statistical production over the course of his career to determine if the (presumed) Pistons' pursuit of Kaman makes sense.

Continue reading this post »

Yesterday was a great day to be an NBA fan. Exciting NBA basketball was played, as teams push for playoff (and lottery) position - and for one of the only times this year, the Pistons were a part of the excitement, nearly toppling the championship-caliber Chicago Bulls in overtime.

But it wasn't just the strong Pistons' performance against a championship-league team that capture Pistons attention. Charlie Villanueva, who had played only 39 minutes and scored only 17 points prior to yesterday's game, scored 13 points in 20 minutes, both season highs.

David Mayo caught up with Coach Frank after the game (via Mlive.com).

"Over these remaining games I want to continue to look and evaluate what we have," Frank said. [...]

"One of the things is this, that we were averaging 74 points a game," in two previous losses to the Bulls, Frank said in explaining the decision. "And if you look at the second and fourth quarters against Chicago, we had a nine-point quarter, we had a 10-point quarter, we had a 13-point quarter. "So what we wanted to see is, as long as we were able to hold the defensive end of the bargain, Charlie in there to stretch the floor."

Stretch the floor he did, launching 6 three-point attempts, again in just 20 minutes. Ironically though, Charlie did the bulk of his damage inside, converting 4 of 5 shots at the rim against a solid interior defense anchored by Joachim Noah. Remember when Mike Payne illustrated how good Charlie Villanueva can be in the post? Maybe there's something to that...

Previously, Frank indicated that if Charlie were to play, someone else would have to sit. Obvious as it sounds, he made that point to demonstrate that the guys ahead of Charlie in the rotation have been playing well, and playing Charlie meant that someone who had been performing well would have to sit.

Yesterday, Jonas Jerebko was the odd man out, earning a DNP-CD.

To be honest, I didn't even realize Jonas hadn't played until I checked the box score at the end of regulation, at which point I didn't care. It was a great game for the team, and team comes before individual -- especially in games like this.

If this were to become a long-term strategy, however, that woud be another matter.

Fortunately, that does not appear to be the case. Frank indicated he plans to continue playing Jonas at power forward, as well as small forward - something many of us have hoped to see more of since Jonas' early performance as a rookie. Jonas' rebounding ability makes him a natural pairing next to a stretch four like Villanueva, whose ability to crash the offensive boards is limited by his perimeter-oriented offensive game.

The Free Macklin train appears to be gaining more steam, and Frank assured the press that Macklin will be freed at some point this season. Hopefully soon, Coach, because there isn't that much time left. It stands to reason that his chance will come sometime between Tuesday and Thursday, when the Pistons play three games in as many days.

Charlie V getting a look, Macklin to be freed, and Jonas at the three. There's something there to like for just about every Pistons fan, I'd imagine.

Assuming, of course, that Jonas Jerebko DNP-CD's are a thing of the past.

Currently, the Milwaukee Bucks are outside the NBA Playoff seeding looking in, sitting exactly two games behind the New York Knicks for the eight seed. It goes without saying, then, that the Bucks need every win they can get, especially against non-Playoff teams.

A quick look at the Pistons' remaining schedule reveals that tonight's game is the Pistons' last chance to impact the 2012 NBA Playoffs in a meaningful way. A division rival fighting for its playoff life should be enough to get the Pistons up for this one.

Game Tips at 8:00 p.m. EST

Detroit, 22-36 (15-12 at home)

Milwaukee, 28-30 (13-15 on road)

The Situation:

The Pistons are fresh off a shellacking of the lowly Charlotte Bobcats. The stat-stuffed box score reveals just how well (almost) everything was working last night (obvious exception is obvious). And if you're curious what a Wins Produced lover's dream stat line looks like, look no further than Greg Monroe's brilliant performance in only twenty-six minutes. And credit where it's due, Brandon Knight had a field day as well.

But that was last night, and the opponent was the Bobcats.

Tonight, the Bucks are likely to provide more resistance, particularly on the perimeter.

Jeff Mezydlo of NBA.com notes just how well Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis have performed against the Pistons of late, with Jennings averaging 25.3 ppg against Detroit over the past three meetings and Ellis 25.5 on over 50% shooting over the past four. The efficiency-based metrics that I prefer aren't crazy about Ellis and Jennings, but on any given night, either one is capable of lighting a team up. With the Pistons' struggle to defend on the perimeter this season, Ellis and Jennings are a dangerous duo to face.

In addition to Jennings and Ellis, the Bucks employ several productive role players who are capable of hurting the Pistons in their own right. Ersan Ilyasova, Carlos Delfino, and Mike Dunleavy can all connect from deep - especially if the opposing defense breaks down and is forced to rotate - while providing competent production elsewhere. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is sort of the Milwaukee version of Jonas Jerebko - a versatile hustle guy that produces efficiently while being a general pest to the opposition.

To top it off, the Bucks are coming off a disappointing loss against the Knicks - a win would have tied the two squads for the eight and final playoff berth. Expect the Bucks to be motivated and to fight for the playoff lives.

As noted above, this is the Pistons' last chance to impact the 2012 NBA Playoffs. The Bucks simply cannot afford a Pistons win tonight. Knocking down a division rival's playoff hopes ought to serve as potent motivation.

Keys to the Game:

Feed the Moose. Last night's game against the Bobcats featured a Moose feeding frenzy at an all-you-can eat buffet with no other customers at the restaurant. Is Monroe still hungry?

Free Macklin. Please?

Contain dribble penetration, close out on shooters. Jennings and Ellis are both lightning quick and could wreak havoc if not contained. Forcing long two-point jumpers is a worthy goal. And while neither guard is know for being a playmaker for others, both are capable of finding the open teammate, and they have teammates who can finish from deep. The Pistons defensive scheme should focus on staying in front, providing help with breaking down, and closing out on capable shooters.

Exploit Stuckey's size advantage. The backcourt match up problems are not a one-way street. Assuming Stuckey's healthy enough to play (at the time of writing, he's listed as day-to-day), he is capable of taking either Ellis or Jennings off the dribble or in the post. As we all know, Stuckey has improved at drawing contact and getting to the line this year. Getting one (or more) of Milwaukee's guards in foul trouble would make things much easier for the Pistons tonight.

Question of the Game:

Does anyone else feel like Coach Frank punked us with the whole, "We've got a role for Vernon, and we're going to play him," thing?

Tonight, the Pistons will square off against what could be one of the worst teams in NBA history. Take the Pistons 4-20 start, extrapolate that over the course of the abbreviated NBA season, and you can imagine what it's like to be a Bobcats fan.

Yikes.

Game Tips at 7pm EST.

The Situation:

The Pistons have lost their last three games, or won three of their last six, depending on how you look at it. And the last two were downright ugly, with both Miami and Orlando having their way. Larry Frank is clear about his intentions -- he want this squad to finish these last nine games strong.

On the Pistons side of things, expect to see some Moose Feeding (Did you hear that, Tayshaun?) and some Macklin playing time. The Pistons have won all three contests vs. the Bobcats, twice easily and once in OT. Just show up and play basketball. That oughta do it.

On the Bobcats side of things, there's not much to say. They're turrible at basically everything. By point differential, they have a real chance at being the worst NBA team of all time. They have one player - Derrick Brown - who is above average at his position by Wins Produced per 48. They have zero players that are above average relative to Win Shares per 48.

As rough as it's been to be a Pistons fan, it could be much, much worse.

Continue reading this post »

David Mayo of MLive.com is reporting some good news out of Charlotte today, prior to the Pistons' match up against the Bobcats: Vernon Macklin appears to be in Coach Frank's plans to close out the season.

Frank didn't say much, but he said enough to make me happy.

Vernon will get an opportunity, regardless [of being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs]. Regardless of what, we were going to do that anyway. So we have a plan of how we're going to incorporate him.

As has been noted here previously, Macklin has made the most of his limited opportunities, and has performed admirably in the D League, spearheaded by a stat-stuffing debut.

Up to this point, it's been impossible to know if his promising production in limited minutes was anything other than fluky randomness of a very small sample size. It looks like we'll get a chance to find out over the next couple weeks.

Kudos, Larry. This is a good thing for everyone.

Thanks to some outstanding work from Andres Alvarez and Patrick Minton, an incredible Wins Produced data set is available, including game splits that feature Wins Produced, its per minute derivative Wins Produced per 48 minutes, and Points over Par. That's an awesome contribution to advanced statistical analysis. Huge props, Dre and Patrick.

If you're like me, though, sifting through tables for too long can be boring and unproductive, no matter how interesting the data itself is. Further, once the game split data became available, I wanted to know one thing - trends. Is the production of the Pistons young players, like Brandon Knight, Greg Monroe, and Rodney Stuckey, trending upward, downward, or holding constant? And what about the production of Pistons veterans, like Tayshaun Prince, Jason Maxiell, and Ben Wallace? Who is age catching up with, and who's sipping from the fountain of youth?

If some nifty visualizations of awesome data are your thing, let's jump.

Continue reading this post »

The Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season. After winning three consecutive games, the Pistons find themselves at third to worst in the Eastern Conference, but only four games (in the win column) out of the eight seed. In absolute terms, four games may not seem insurmountable. Relatively speaking, this team has managed to win only seven times in twenty-seven tries. Winning four games, in other words, isn’t that simple.

In any case, I jumped on the Unibrow/Sullinger bandwagon a long time ago, and fortunately for likeminded Pistons fans, the statistical production of this group bodes well for that outcome. If current efficiency differentials hold, this team will be expected to finish the season 14-52, or squarely in the mix for a top-three pick.

Here’s a quick peek at how three of the most popular advanced metrics allocate the (lack) of Pistons success this season. My thoughts after the jump, yours in the comments. (Use the Wide view to see the table fully)

Continue reading this post »

Tonight, the Pistons will conclude a back-to-back-to-back, courtesy of the generous NBA owners. Cramming 66 games into an abbreviated schedule was genius enough, but forcing teams to play on the road for three consecutive nights? Brilliant. Oh yeah, the Nets also played on the road last night in Indiana, where the Pacers had their way during the second half.

Two bad teams on tired legs. What more could a fan ask for? Quantity over quality is always the best way to please your consumer base.

But I digress.

Game Tips at 7:30pm EST

Detroit Pistons: 4 - 19 (1 - 11 road *shudder*)

New Jersey Nets: 7 - 15 (2 - 6 home)

The Situation:

Both of these teams suck. Both teams lost on the road last night, and this game is even more likely to be ugly as a result. Additionally, both teams are depleted by injury. The Nets have been without their starting centre, Brook Lopez, all season and recently lost promising rookie MarShon Brooks to a foot injury. Former Piston Mehmet Okur is a shadow of who he was while wearing the Red, White, and Piston Blue, but he's also out with a bad back. The Pistons remain without the services of Will Bynum, Ben Gordon, and Charlie Villanueva.

However, the Nets are playing at home - the Pistons have only won one game on the road - and they have Deron Williams. That may be enough to tip the scale in their favor.

By the advanced metrics, Deron Williams is having a bit of a down year, due largely to a decline in offensive efficiency (i.e., shooting efficiency and turnovers). However, he's still as dangerous as they come, as he demonstrated last night in Indiana where he dropped 34 points (on 20 shots) and dished out 7 assists. Knight, Stuckey, and Russell will all get a chance to try slowing Williams down, and they'll certainly have their hands full. Pick and roll fer days, if I'm Avery Johnson.

Williams is the obvious focal point of the Nets' offense, and he's equally dangerous creating for himself or others, but he's not the only threat the Pistons will need to keep in check.

Many believed Kris Humphries was a one-hit wonder. On the basketball court, at least, this doesn't appear to be the case. He's following up last year's career season by averaging a double double this year -- scoring just under 13 points and grabbing just under 11 boards per contest. Say what you will about his antics off the court, Kris Humphries is the type of bruising, blue-collar big man I'd welcome as a Pistons every day of the week. The Pistons have had a habit of making guys like him look like All Stars over the past couple seasons. Box him out, please.

The Nets also have weapons from behind the arc, which will keep the Pistons perimeter defenders from helping on Williams' penetration. Sharp-shooting Anthony Morrow is coming off an excellent shooting performance in Indiana, scoring 28 points on 17 shots, including 5-8 from behind the long line. Jordan Farmar is having a quietly good season, shooting a blistering 46% from deep. With the injury to Brooks, Farmar should see time at both guard spots off the bench. The Pistons can't afford to leave a hand down on these two, because we all know what happens after hand down...

Keys to the Game:

Contain dribble penetration: This, of course, is easier said than done, and of course, should be at the very top of the Pistons' scouting report. This Nets team isn't going to win many games if Deron Williams isn't playing well. The more the Pistons can do to make his life difficult, the better.

Pick up the pace: Please? Pretty please? Pretty, pretty please? The Pistons continue to play at the slowest pace in the league. Honestly, I have no idea if playing any faster will increase the chances of winning; bad basketball is bad basketball in slow motion or fast forward. But, I'd much rather watch this team get out on the break and attack quickly regardless of outcome than I would watch almost everything we've seen up to this point.

Move the ball: In the most ironic comment of the year (decade?), Tayshaun Prince is on to something. And while we're since we're talking about moving the ball, Tayshaun...

Feed the Moose: Kris Humphries, Shelden Williams, and Johan Petro. These three players are likely to play the majority of the Nets' frontcourt minutes. The implication is obvious, no? If I have to watch one more game where Tayshaun Prince shoots the ball more than Greg Monroe, I will whine, gripe, and RPBAR this game thread. This is not an empty threat. No one wants that. No. One.

Question of the Game:

There are six players on the Nets' roster that I had to look up, because I didn't have any idea who they were when I looked at their names. How many for you?

What's good, DBB?

As many of you may already know, we've got a handful of tech geeks in the community. We all love to give Microsoft-loving Boourns a hard time for his love affair with Bing, MFMP, myself, and a few others of us are Google and Android aficionados (I <3 my Verizon Galaxy Nexus more than life itself), and unfortunately, we even have some iPhone users among us, including our fearless leader -- the one who originally sold me on the OG Droid. Sellout!!!

I kid, I kid.

Not really, sellout!

So, during the last week of the first month of the year of our JoD 2012, let's talk tech (and of course, anything and everything else).

Continue reading this post »

Last year, MFMP put up this thread, detailing the other teams in the NBA he'd be following and posing that question to the rest of DBB. Buffoonery ensued, but what would you expect from Detroit's Bad Buffoons weblog?

Even though we're already a quarter of the way through the season, I thought it could still be a fun discussion. Who are your pet teams this year (assuming you have one)?

And this time, let's have a friendly conversation. Hopefully, we can simply preempt questioning people's loyalty to the Pistons simply because they follow other NBA teams by simply stating that we all love basketball and the NBA. As fans of the game, it's perfectly understandable for us to gravitate toward teams who play the game in the ways we like to see it played (especially when our own team only manages to do this once every 14 games or so). Cool?

I'll go with the obvious and say the Clippers for reasons everyone will already know. DBB-favorite DeAndre Jordan plays like a Piston and is an excellent paring for Blake Griffin. Billups is on the decline, but he's still plays an important role and hits big shots. I hope they find a way to keep CP3 and build around Jordon, Griffin, and Paul. Lob City should live longer than just one year.

The Nuggets remain a pet team, even sans Billups. They are built similarly to the Going to Work Pistons, in that they lack a true superstar and instead are simply a collection of good players who are buying into the team concept and reaping the rewards of doing so.

Out East, I'm not really pulling for anyone in particular. Anyone who plays Miami is worth cheering for, amirite?

Maybe some will be pulling for Philly, and I get that. They can challenge Miami, and at the end of the day, that's all that matters to most, including me. A Playoff upset would EPIC.

As Judas-y as it feels, I guess I'm sort of hoping Chicago keeps playing well, because I think they are the other team out East that can beat Miami. Mind you, I will only cheer for them in a Playoff match up against Miami.

The Knicks are my anti-pet team, in that it's fun to see the hilarity that is the inevitable result of building around Stoudamire and Melo. For an advanced metrics guy like me, their sub-.500 performance since the Melo trade isn't at all surprising. Which makes all of the hub bub about "chemistry" and coaching that much more hilarious. (Post injury) Stoudamire and Melo are fool's gold, in my view, and while I'm not necessarily rooting for them to fail, it's a little rewarding to see the record match the projections we statheads who don't watch the games made.

I am rooting for the C's to fail, and it's pretty awesome they are, no? Rajon Rando is the exception. I love the way that dude plays, and I love that his play this year remains exceptional. I've had enough of the narrative that gives all the credit for his success to his really good teammates. His performance this year ought to debunk that nonsense.

Enough about me. What about you? Who are you pulling for (at least when they aren't playing the 'Stons)?

There's more randomness after the jump if you cheer for the Pistons and only the Pistons.

Continue reading this post »

The Pistons return to the Palace tonight and are likely to be without the services of Rodney Stuckey (groin) and Ben Gordon (personal reasons) for the second straight game. The Daye and Knight backcourt needs to play its way out of the night and into the day...

Okay, that's just gotta stop.

Game tips at 7:30pm EST (on FS Plus for the local markets).

Detroit Pistons: 2-5 (2-2 home)

New York Knicks: 3-4 (2-2 road)

The Situation:

After a thrilling NBA season opener against Boston, New York has played exactly how one might expect a team led by Amare Stoudamire and Carmelo Anthony to play. Remarkably unremarkable.

Although in fairness, you can't blame Melo (at least, not this year). He's playing some of the best basketball of his career this season. He's scoring nearly 30 points per contest, rebounding and passing as well as he ever has, and as a result, posting career bests in Wins Shares and Wins Produced per 48 minutes, as well as Offensive Rating. For the moment at least, Melo's complete game is living up to the hype.

(Good thing we have Tayshuan to slow him down, amirite?)

New York's struggles to get over the .500 hump boil down to the play of Amare Stoudamire. His 19 points and 8 boards per contest are deceiving. Those 19 points come from lots of shots - he's shooting worse than he has since his rookie season, posting a pedestrian 46.3 eFG%. For a Power Forward, that's bad. He still gets to the line a lot, but his poor shooting has led to career lows in Wins Shares and Wins Produced per 48 minutes, as well as Offensive Rating as a result.

Tyson Chandler hasn't turned the Knicks into a defensive powerhouse, but he is playing good basketball. Many wondered if last season were merely a fluke that could be attributed to playing alongside Dirk Nowtizki and Jason Kidd. So far, that hasn't been the case. Chandler continues to score efficiently (roomer has it, he likes slam dunk shots), rebound the ball, and block shots. Oh yeah, he's also sporting a ridiculous 145 Offensive Rating. What more could you ask for from your starting Centre?

The Pistons will have their hands full up front, to put it mildly. Fortunately, things look a little better in the backcourt.

Last night's game on the road against Phildelphia had even me wishing for Ben Gordon and Rodney Stuckey. Yeah, it was that bad. The three-guard rotation of Brandon Knight, Austin Daye, and Will Bynum was far from cohesive, combining for 10-35 shooting, 7 turnovers, and only 9 assists.

Against the Knicks, this trio has a real chance at redemption against a struggling Knicks backcourt. The Knicks are essentially playing without a point guard (Toney Douglas and Mike Bibby). When you're pining for Baron Davis to get healthy, you know it's bad. Knight and Bynum should be able to get into the paint almost at will.

At shooting guard, Landry Fields is off to a slow start. Don't leave him wide open, and he won't kill you. Iman Shumpert, on the other hand, has started strong, and his slashing style of play could pose problems for Austin Daye.

Keys to the Game

Stay out of foul trouble. The Knicks starting front court is shooting nearly 23 free throws per game so far this season. Defending without fouling is always easier said than done, but it's particularly important tonight for the Pistons to have a chance. Moose and Jerebko can't carry the team from the bench.

Penetrate and pitch. Yes, last night's guard play was ugly. If there was an upside, though, it came from Brandon Knight who would have threatened double digit assist had anyone been able to knock down an open shot. Knight and Bynum should be able to get to the paint at will tonight, but they'll be greeted by one of the best defensive centres in the game when they get there. Collapsing the defense, drawing additional defenders, and then finding the open teammate could spell success, and a little bit of redemption, for the Piston point guards.

Rebound the basketball. The Pistons have outrebounded their opponents three times this year. They have won two of those games. Crash the glass, fellas.

Feed the Moose. Moose faces a worthy opponent in Tyson Chandler tonight. The best way to make things easy for him would be early and frequent foul trouble for Chandler. Aggressive but controlled attacks from the Pistons guards as describe above, coupled with getting it to Moose early and often just might do the trick. If we can get Chandler out of the paint and force him to move, Moose should have ample room to operate.

Question(s) of the Game

Does Charlie Villanueva still play for the Pistons? Is this Austin's Daye's last chance to prove himself? Does anyone actually have FS Plus? Will you be watching this game instead of the Lions? Or will you find a clever way to do both? So many questions, so little time.

What are yours?

For the stat lovers among the DBB faithful, I share the following from the Wages of Wins Journal.

In response to criticism that Wins Produced overvalues rebounds, Dave Berri spent some time during the lockout re-calculating Wins Produced. In a nutshell, Wins Produced now shares the credit for a defensive rebound between the team and the individual who snags the board.

The results? A .98 correlation between the old and new Wins Produced - which implies Wins Produced got it pretty much right the first time - but hopefully a metric that's better equipped to preemptively address certain criticisms.

Continue reading this post »