Hurdle, O'Dowd and the Bunt

brian8065 — Mon, 04 May 2009 16:26:46 -0000

I wish to comment on Hurdle’s decision to bunt Iannetta in the 8th inning and Spilborghs in the 9th inning. The good news is that Iannetta correctly hit into a double play. Maybe Hurdle will not try it again with him. What troubles me is that Spilborghs laid down a good bunt, which was terrible news. Hurdle will now be encouraged to bunt with Spilborghs all season now.

Hurdle looks at this as though it is "Good fundamental Baseball". He says it all the time. As if he knows? This is the strategy part of baseball. To my knowledge there are no baseball strategy books. I am a poker player. I have over 50 poker books, all of which I have read, some 5 times. When I am at the casino, and I get a tricky hand, I go home and look at the math on the computer. I have a program that simulates a million hands after I imput the information, and it tells me the math.

If Hurdle or O’Dowd ever did this they would know not to have guys that have career ops+ of 103 and 111 bunt in that situation. They need to run a simulation of 1,000 games of Iannetta and Spilly swinging away instead of bunting, to really know what they should have done. I cannot imagine that it is even close that the bunt was the right decision.

Someone needs to point this out to these guys.

I like Hurdle. I believe the players will do anything he asks them to do. He seems like a really good person. Hurdle was instramental in the development of several of the best Rockies. I also believe if Hurdle is fired, and anyone else comes in, they will make this same stupid mistake. This really is an O’Dowd problem. He needs to sit Hurdle down and show him the math.

There are no plays in baseball like basketball, hockey or football. When a single is hit to the centerfielder with a runner on second, the first baseman is the cuttoff to home for all teams. (Unless your third baseman is Doug DeCinces and your first baseman is Rod Carew.) It is pretty simple. At an all star team for baseball, the manager does not sit all the players down for hours before the game and explain the plays they plan to run. If Hurdle decides to change the linup it is not going to change things much. Most decisions a manager makes are cut and dried, and easy to make. SO IS THIS ONE. You don’t bunt. It is maddening that he does. Absolutely maddening.

Tracy Ringolsby should ask him. Anyone in the media should ask him, what is the math behind bunting Spillborghs? O’Dowd needs to be asked too. Someone needs to point out to these guys that they are doing the same thing as trading the Browns (New York, Tennessee and St. James) in Monopoly for the Reds (Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois). Someone needs to point out that they are doing the same thing as not protecting their Queen in Chess. Somone needs to point out to these two that they are drawing to inside straights without the odds. I am going to send them both a calculator along with this post.

This decision is a simple math decision. There is a right or wrong answer. I was playing Blackjack with my brother, and he stood pat with a 12 against a dealer 2. I pointed out to him that that was the wrong strategy, and he replied, "I don’t play it that way. I let the dealer bust." Hard to argue with that, but it is completely wrong. If you play it that way a million times, you will have less money than if you play it the correct play a million times. If Hurdle bunts in this situation a million times, he will lose more games than if he lets them swing away a million times. There is no other way to put it. It is not disputable. Two plus two does not equal 5!

It makes me so mad. And to hear them say that it is fundamental baseball? IT ISN’T FUNDAMENTAL BASEBALL!!!!!! It is a bad bet. It is against the odds.

We can only hope that Iannetta does the right thing the rest of his career and continues to hit into double plays when asked to bunt. IANNETTA NEEDS TO TEACH SPILBORGHS HOW TO BUNT!!!! The only players that should sacrifice bunt on the Rockies are the pitchers, Torrealba, and possibly Barmes in the right situation.

Someone please get to O’Dowd and Hurdle. PLEASE.

SB Nation User Blog: brian8065

Hurdle, O'Dowd and the Bunt