Several years ago I turned on the TV and it was showing one of those group talk shows, where the group was made up of the wives of NFL head coaches.

Continue reading this post »

Last year I posted "All I Want for Christmas Is an Average Defense."  You can read it here.  Since then I have enjoyed being part of this corner of the blogosphere, although unfortunately I did not get my holiday wish.  Since last October, average performances by our defense have been as rare as the Chiefs winning our division, the oakland raiders being respectable, well, they've been rare.

Continue reading this post »

This story might seem a little long and winding, but if you'll stick with me, I think you will find it is worth it.  At least it should be a nice break from all the "pity party" comments.

Continue reading this post »

It's natural at this time of year to dig into the details of how the draft worked out, how our 49th best man compares to the league average, or to debate what the Alphonso Smith and/or Tim Tebow cases mean for the future of the Denver Broncos.  Although I learned a lot about football from my Mom, whose favorite player of all time is Eddie Mac, I haven't yet learned enough to address these topics.  But I did learn enough to notice something that no one seems to be talking about, five inconspicuous reasons the Broncos have a bright future:

Continue reading this post »

I'm confused about some important Broncos issues, and hope maybe some of you can help clear the fog.

I'm confused about the character of our defense.  It seems that for the first six or so games the defense looked tough and physically imposing, kind of like Shaquille O'Neal, but for the last few games played old and slow, more like Ben Stein.  What happened?  What is the true nature of the Broncos' defense?

Continue reading this post »

I've been working on this the past couple of days, and I see that Josie Wales posted some similar thoughts earlier today.  There must be some mysterious force drawing us right here and right now to comment on our top ten most pressing issues...

Continue reading this post »

I was in Chicago all last week.  After the Broncos' great win on Sunday and with this being Chargers week, I don't know if anyone will be interested in revisiting the Bears-Broncos connection, but I thought that someone out there might be interested in my observations.

I couldn't find a jazz station I liked on my rental car's radio.  I know there has to be a good one in Chicago, so I must have just hit commercials at the wrong time as I worked the buttons.  Same thing with classic rock.  Looking for a third best alternative, I ended up with their (evidently) biggest sports talk station.  Tired of button pushing, I stayed with it all week.  Here's what I heard:

• Even though the Bears had a bye, and it sounded like their baseball team (Cubs?) was contending for a playoff spot, football callers outnumbered baseball callers by at least 5-1.
• A lot of the callers felt that the Bears had made a full-fledged transition into a passing team.  And they all seemed to be fine with that.  They seemed to feel that their running personality of the past came from not being able to pass, not from a conscious decision to build a team in a certain way.
• There seems to be a consensus that the Bears will contend for the Super Bowl.  A lot of the callers complained that they were getting very little respect from the national media.
• They didn't mention this on the radio, but as a side note that may be semi-related, I now know why they call Chicago the Windy City!

I'm not sure I agree with them, but that's the way the fans in Chicago were feeling last week.  What do you think?

About this time last week Bronco Joe asked in a post if it would be better to start Kyle Orton or Carson Palmer for his fantasy football team. I said Orton, obviously. About 10 or 11 of the replies recommended Palmer, rather abruptly dismissing my logic. Three or four said to start neither, to look for a third alternative. Only one or two other brave souls agreed with me.

Here is the text of my reply: "Since Palmer will be wearing that wavy striped, candy corn colored uniform, Orton in classy white and blue is the clear choice!"

It would probably be immature for me to say I told you so, but I would like to point out for the record that I was RIGHT!  And everyone else, in this one instance only, was less overwhelmingly right. 

It came to me this week that  what I did for Bronco Joe, I could do for you as well. In my career in giving fantasy football advice I am one for one; I've never been thrown for a loss or fumbled in the fourth quarter. You can try regressive analysis or throw darts at a random dartboard for the answers you need. Or you can ask someone who has never been wrong. So, let me hear your fantasy football concerns and dilemmas. I have all the answers. Ask the BroncosPriestess.

10. I would like to see a limit of two or three bubble screens a game. I’ve read the arguments that horizontal passing attacks win games, but downfield spirals and the choreograph of successful running plays just look prettier.

9. I would like for Tony Dungy to be hired as life coach / mentor for Brandon Marshall at least for the rest of the year.

8. I would like for the punt receiver to call for a fair catch every time. That way we would get better field position than after the inevitable holding call, and the game would go faster as well. The rest of the players could try to block the punt, and they might succeed once in a while just because it would be so unexpected.

7. I would like for the bad feeling I have that Ryan Clady is going to suffer a sophomore jinx and that Champ Bailey is losing a half step to go away.

6. I would like for the announcers who are calling the game to realize that it’s all about the game on the field, not their celebrity interview in the booth or endlessly rehearsed and parroted comments about the Jay Cutler trade.

5. I would like for the offense to convert more third downs and control the time of possession, and for the defense to create more fumbles and interceptions.

4. I would like to see the classic orange jerseys / blue helmets instead of the brown jerseys and striped socks this year. They’re just prettier. Besides, if they were good enough for John Elway, they should be good enough for Kyle Orton. Doesn’t Pat Bowlen have a wife to tell him what a well-dressed man wears (and doesn’t wear)?

3. I would like to see a better scheme to defend a short passing attack. I’m pleased that the defense doesn’t look like it will be pushed around in the running game, and that it doesn’t look like we will give up tons of long passes, so blowouts may become a relic of the past. But most of the offenses in the NFL game plan around a ball control, short passing attack, and it seems like we are daring them to try.

2. I would like to see the first five guys who recommend this post get dates with Broncos cheerleaders. Accompanied by their respective wives and girlfriends, of course. :-)

1. I would like for September 13 to get here so we can play a friendly game of football with Cinncinnati!

No oakland raiders were harmed in the making of this post.

Last year one of the big problems in the second half of the season was running back depth.  This year we probably will face different issues, but it seems we should be prepared just in case lightning strikes twice.

What I worry about is that LaMont Jordan is the second string running back.  Assuming he is that good, wouldn't that pretty much make him a lock to make the team?  I didn't get to see the first game of the season, but against Seattle, Jordan seemed to kind of lean into tacklers.  I was not impressed.  Maybe this is an unfair comparison, but that's not the way Terrell Davis used to do it, even in preseason.  Or even Jordan of his oakland raiders days.

Since one of the goals of the team is to become hungrier and more physical, wouldn't it make sense for Buckhalter, Moreno and Hillis to get the carries, with a couple of young backs who are special teams standouts in reserve?  Is there something I'm not seeing here?  Is Jordan a great locker room leader, or a special teams stud, or someone who has extra value as an emergency kicker or quarterback?

Maybe I should go back to worrying about the defense.

10. Peyton Manning commercials. They’re funny. All twelve thousand of them.

9. Cooler weather! That first kickoff means the dog days of summer are done.

8. The brightly colored leaves of Autumn.

7. The kids are back in school! On some days, this is my favorite reason of all.

6. Something worth watching kicks paid programming off Sunday afternoons and Merlin off Sunday nights.

5. The end of the long, boring baseball season.

4. Watching a football game is a good excuse to eat chips and salsa. And, of course, the obvious things I love about the football season…

3. Monday nights.

2. Sunday nights.

1. Sunday afternoons!

And one thing I don’t care for during football season: Haven’t we seen enough Viagra/Cialis/Levitra ED commercials? Doesn’t everyone with a TV know by now that there is treatment available if you will just ask your doctor?

What about you? What do you love about football season?

We've heard it over and over: with the return of our offensive line and receivers, with healthy, more physical running backs, and with new play calling in the red zone, our offense is bound to be awesome. If our defense improves to only average, we are headed back to the playoffs. Those who drink the blue and orange Kool-Aid even believe we will finish 13-3. It sounds good. But I respectfully disagree.

Not because I don't think our offense will be very good. But because I don't think our defense will improve to average. Maybe it will become feared and respected over time. Certainly some of the building blocks seem to be in place. But I believe that this version of the Broncos defense, although improved, is destined to remain in the lower echelon this season.

Improving to average means stepping above a number of other teams with physically gifted, highly motivated players taught by some of the best football coaches in the world. I imagine that improving by several steps in the NFL is not as easy as it sounds. I think it is more realistic for us fans to hope that the Denver defense improves from awful to below average, giving us a chance to win some shootouts and improving the morale of the team as we no longer get blown out whenever the offense has an off day.

One way you can have an average defense is for it to be manned by great players who are poorly coached or under motivated. I don’t hear anyone saying that is the case with the Denver Broncos.

A second way to an average defense is by having a team full of serviceable role players with a great scheme, coaching, and team leadership. I think a number of us hope that it will work out this way for the Broncos. But this seems like wishful thinking to me. Even assuming Mike Nolan is a great defensive coordinator, we have to realize that it is going to take some time to overcome the revolving door culture of the last few years. Over the last five years, has any other team gone through as many defensive coaches as Denver? And the best schemes are not learned overnight; they are assimilated over the span of several seasons. Great teams don’t reinvent the wheel every year by throwing a bunch of stuff against the wall to see what sticks. They have a plan, and it’s going to take a while before our team learns the new scheme well enough to completely compensate for a lack of skill.

The third way you can end up with an average defense is to have average players with average coaching. Please remember that when I use the word average I am talking about those who are in the middle of a bell curve of an elite group of players and coaches. And if we assume, as I do, that the Broncos coaching on defense will be about average (at least in 2009), then we will need a team full of average starting defenders to end up with an average defense. And I don’t think we’re there yet.

Each defense has 11 starters. Backups play, of course, especially on third down, but for the purpose of this analysis I am only looking at the starters. Because teams play different schemes, you can’t, for example, rank the top middle linebackers from 1-32, but I’m also ignoring the differences in schemes and only looking at how each Broncos starter compares to his peers. Using a bell curve, the middle 16 out of a group of 32 would be considered average, the top eight would be above average, and the bottom eight below average. So basically you can rank each starter as a Pro Bowl (or close) level player, an average NFL starter, or a serviceable player without (hopefully) extreme flaws.

I don’t think most teams have all average starters. Due to the nature of the draft, most average teams would have more like six average starters, two or three great players, and two or three serviceable role players.

Does the Broncos defense have two great players? Obviously Bailey and Dawkins, if they remain healthy. But, due to their age, I think that has to be considered a big if. I think there is a good possibility one of them misses significant time with an injury. So I count one or two Pro Bowl type players.

In the average starters category I count Goodman, Williams, Thomas, Andra Davis, and Hill. Plus whoever fills in for Champ or Brian if they are injured. So that is five or six average starters. I know that I have read that DJ Williams is considered an elite linebacker. I don’t live in the Denver area, so I don’t get to see all the Broncos games, and I can only make a conclusion based on what I see. And I have seen some great hits, but I have also seen him overrun plays or get wired to blocks downfield. Maybe he was injured those days, but overall he looks pretty average to me.

In the serviceable players category I would put Ayers and Dumervil (or Moss or Crowder or Reid), who would be learning a new position, plus Peterson and Fields. I don’t think it would be realistic to think that Powell or McBean or Baker or Rulon Davis or Pedescleaux, if they win a starting position, could be considered an average NFL starter their first year of playing. So I count four serviceable players.

So one or two elite starters, five or six average starters, and four serviceable role players, along with average NFL level coaching, is my prediction for this year. Not awful, but not quite top twenty either. And I’m afraid that, with a poor pass rush and linebackers on the slow side, our defense will prove vulnerable to a short passing attack this year.

Of course, this is training camp season. The skies are blue, the sunsets are orange, and we are still undefeated this year. So win me over with your optimism! Please feel free to correct, debate, or disagree... in a gentlemanly way, of course.

No oakland raiders were harmed in the making of this post.