It is no secret that the Warriors need better interior defense.  David Lee grabs rebounds at a very high level, over 11 per 36 for his career.  Biedrins is even better with over 12 rebounds per 36 for his career, with that being said Lee and Biedrins share a weakness they both are not the best defenders.  I applaud Lee for his effort and Biedrins shows the ability to defend in spurts but defense is not either of their strengths("strengths" 9 letters only one vowel.)  Lee just signed to a large contract and has a much better all around game compared to Biedrins, therefore the Warriors should be looking for a center capable of playing great defense along side Lee.

Carmelo Anthony is not going to be a Nugget much longer and an indirect consequence of this action by Anthony is that the supporting cast that surrounds Anthony are probably less likely to stay with the Nuggets.  Denver is set to go into a rebuilding mode in the upcoming season.  Nene Hilario is having a career season with the Nuggets and probably wants a long term deal.  The Warriors will have the ability to sign him as a free agent, they could also do a sign and trade with the Nuggets.

This is why Nene works with the Warriors:

• Nene is a big upgrade defensively as evidence by this list of post defenders from last year I found on the APBRmetrics forum (Post Up Defenders.)
• Nene doesn't get many blocked shots, but the reality of defense is that blocked shots don't equate to defense necessarily, they are nice much like steals but they are not a perfect indicator of defensive ability.
• Nene isn't nearly the rebounder that Lee and Biedrins are but he isn't horrible either, he gets around 8.5 rebounds per 36 which is mediocre for his position, but he is not a slouch in that area necessarily.
• Nene's big strength besides his defense is his ability to score super efficiently without taking away much from the Warriors other offensive weapons.  He only shoots 9.6 shots per 36 and scores 17.3 points per 36, he has a blistering .693 TS%.
• Nene's WS/48 is over .200 which according to people who go by that statistic makes Nene a star player
• Nene has the ability to run the floor and has done so in Denver throughout his career, other interior defenders would force the Warriors to play at a slower pace, Nene would not force the Warriors to do this.
• Nene drawns 6.5 foul shots per 36, which he hits at over 70%, this is good for the Warriors because the Warriors do not draw enough fouls on a consistent basis, Biedrins and Lee combine for about 5.0 foul shots per 36, this number would skyrocket to 10.5 if Nene was on the team, this is a significant difference.
• Conclusion:  Nene would bring interior defense, more offense inside at elite efficiency and draw fouls, therefore helping the team by putting opponents in the penalty more often.  Overall Nene is the exact type of player that the Warriors need if they want to continue playing a fast paced style and be competitive.

How do we get Nene?  We have a few options, we could wait for Nene to opt out of his contract and sign him as a free agent, keeping our team intact and adding Nene(using whatever is left over to re-sign Reggie Williams/get another point guard) or we could do a sign and trade.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yjteljj

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=34pholh

The Nuggets would do a trade with the Warriors for Nene because once they know he isn't resigning they will want to get something out him, the Warriors have plenty of assets that the Nuggets might want anyone but Curry and Lee(highly doubt the Nuggets would want Lee) would be expendable in my opinion in order to sign a type of player like Nene.

There are many other trade combos that work as well, the Warriors do have draft picks they could potentially give up as well.

The Jazz and the Warriors played a thrilling game of basketball, the Warriors won in the end despite the Jazz performing a feat I have never seen in an NBA game.  A open shot was taken by the Jazz and it failed to hit the rim but succeeded in bouncing off another Jazz players head and then went out of bounds.  There should be a statistic for this kind of play.  The Warriors won despite this sterling and unbelievable play.

This game got my wondering however, many Warriors players had good productive games in this win but almost all Warriors offensive numbers will suffer because of poor FG%.  Looking at Monta's game he did not score efficiently but he contributed mightily because of great defense and steals, he also shot much better than his teammates despite shooting poorly himself.

In the end isn't a statistic like TS% only really relevant when comparing it to the scope of the game?  The Jazz played lock down defense on our players and many players had a terrible time shooting the ball, so bad that the team average TS% was .414, Monta shot a lot of shots but still outperformed his teammates in TS% by .029 therefor despite having a poor shooting night Monta helped his team offensively more so than many of the other players.

Therefore it is really unfair to claim that Ellis shot poorly and therefore hurt his teams chance for winning, most players shot even worse than Ellis and much of the reason for the poor shooting was good defense on the part of the Jazz, therefore I believe that a new statistic should be created.  In honor of Monta Ellis(and his tats) I have named this stat TATS%(Team Aggregated True Shooting Percentage) here is how it works.

1.  Find the TS% for the team as a whole (.414)

2.  Find the TS% for the player who you are judging (.443)

3.  Find the difference between the two numbers subtracting total TS% from the players number signifying if the number is negative or positive. (+.029)

4.  Next find the league average TS% up to this point in the season (.536)

5.  Add or subtract step 3 to step 4 and there you have it Monta Ellis's TATS% was .565 for the night.

Tats is a good reflection of how well a players shooting helped or hurt his team.  Tonight despite shooting poorly Ellis helped his team win because he shot better than the team as a whole.

You could also perform this statistic for a player's entire season.  Lets do it again for Monta's entire season last year.

1.  The TS% for the team all year was .565

2.  Monta Ellis's TS% for the whole year was .517

3.  The difference was -.048

4.  The league average TS% was .543

5.  Add or Subtract step 3 from step 4, and Monta Ellis's TATS from last year was .495

Using this method one might be able to judge a player's individual performance better if one just saw a player with a .443 TS% for a game and saw that he shot 20 shots one might come slap ones palm against ones forehead and say to themselves "why did this player shoot so many shots." but on a closer look if the individual looking at the stat sheet saw a TATS% of .565 they might say to themselves "That is mighty efficient scoring for that amount of shots.  Monta Ellis really helped his team tonight with his shooting."  The second exclamation would be a better judgment of Monta Ellis's shooting on this night.

One of the drawbacks to TATS% is that really bad teams would have players with a good TATS% and it would not really judge that players overall talent only the effect on which the player had on this really bad team with regards to his shooting.  One good use of TATS% is to determine if a players shot selection is intelligent a player may have a low overall TS% because he has to take more shots because the rest of his team is even worse at shooting, essentially it is a good way to look and see if a player is shooting intelligently within his teams own offense. If their TATS% is around the average TS% for the league that is good, if it is extremely high into the .600s that means that with the shots that the player takes he is helping his team tremendously with scoring.

Of course this idea could be taken to another level and an entire performance could be judged and weighted based completely on team performance.  TS% was the easiest statistic for me to compile right now.  Theoretically you could do the same weighted performance with regards to rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals and blocks and create a stat that rates a players entire performance weighted towards how the rest of his team and how well his opponents did.

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Stop here if you do not want to waste your time reading about ideas that probably will not happen.

 

This is my crazy trade machine idea, over the off-season it is almost a tradition to post trade ideas. Well I have a few of my own. One trade will probably be considered too good to be true and the other trade will probably be considered quite idiotic but through my (most likely) flawed logic I think it would make the team a playoff contender and potentially keep our financial flexibility.

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This idea is unrealistic and it has little chance of happening, but despite its unlikeliness it is great!  There is no better time to discuss this great idea than now.  There is no basketball being played in the NBA all the big name stars are out of the picture as far as free agency goes.  Rabid NBA fans are just waiting for Lois Amunsdon to be signed so they can have something to think about.  This is the perfect time to discuss hypothetical ideas that may be "great" but are very unlikely.  (Scroll Down and wait for the bold text to actually see the idea if you don't want to read about boring reasoning)

Poll

Is this idea "Great"?

26%

Yes

41 votes

30%

No

48 votes

42%

I Would Rather Be Reading about Mindless Trades that don't actually work in the ESPN Trade Machine

67 votes

156 votes | Poll has closed

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The day is finally here, the stars have aligned and the Golden State Warriors have new ownership, but they also made one extremely good move this off season in acquiring David Lee.  The future looks bright for the Golden State Warriors.

 

I. New Ownership

 

First off I would like to say that this is a very exciting time to be a Warriors fan, soon there will be a new owner announced and hopefully this will allow the Warriors to spend the big bucks they need to become a perennial playoff team, if not a championship caliber team. Congratulations Joseph Lacob!!!

 

For purposes of this post I have made a few assumptions that may not turn out to be true. One is that Don Nelson will be the coach of the Warriors next year. Another is that Udoh will get very little playing time due to his injury. Also Tolliver will be resigned(I have no idea if he will be) and C.J. Watson will be resigned. I also assume that the players on the team will miss only a minimal amount of time and that Stephen Curry will be the main point guard and Ellis will not play point as often as last year and finally production will average out(no one will get significantly better or worse.)

 

II. Cynicism Towards Past Front Office and Ownership

 

Because of years of incompetence it is easy as a fan to look at the moves that the Warriors front office make and simply state that you oppose any and every move. Many Warrior fans have done just that during this off-season. But I have examined what the Warriors have gained and what the Warriors have lost and I have come to the conclusion that the Warriors will be a much better team this year than last if they stay healthy. I will do this by examining last season's failings combined with the 2007-2008 team that won 48 games. Why was that team better than last years team?

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How I see the draft shaping up is like this.

 

1. John Wall

2. Evan Turner

3. DeMarcus Cousins

4. Derrick Favors

5. Wesley Johnson

 

I would be thrilled if Johnson, Favors or Cousins drops to the Warriors and if that happens the Warriors would have to draft that player. I would especially be thrilled to get Favors or Johnson, Turner and Wall are completely our of our range.

 

Now lets discuss options, if one of my stated top five does not fall into our hands.

 

1. Trade Up: I don't even know why I just typed that, this is literally an impossibility unless we give up Curry.

2. Trade our pick: We could package our fairly high pick in an effort to get rid of Maggette's contract, or get a good center or power forward for Ellis.

3. The Draft Choices:

 

Al-Farouq Aminu: Has the hieght to be a true SF in the league, it has been told that he has the athleticism to be a truly elite player in the league. Aminu is a project he is only 19. Some of Aminu's college statistics are a bit troubling. His FG% is only at .447. He seems to not be a good jump shooter or 3pt shooter. In college he depends on mismatches, which would not happen as much in the NBA. Aminu only averages 1.3 assists per game but turns the ball over 3.2 times a game. Scouts praise Aminu for his work ethic and claim that he can defend well. The Warriors could use a defense minded player but I think that the turnovers, lack of passing and poor jump shot make him more of a liability. I personally would avoid Aminu if I were the Warriors. This is not to say that Aminu won't be good someday he just isn't going to have an immediate impact on the Warriors.

 

Cole Aldrich: I actually like Aldrich. He seems to be a safe pick for the Warriors. He can defend the low post can block shots and can rebound. He is also a good pick and roll player. All of these things are abilities the Warriors need. The main problem with Aldrich is that he seems to be a limited offensive player, who will not get much better than he is. I would be surprised if Aldrich ever is anything more than a role player. He would be a valuable player on the Warriors but won't win rookie of the year and probably will have no chance of ever even making an all-star game.

 

Ekpe Udoh: Udoh doesn't have the size or the defensive ability that Aldrich has but he is more versatile on the offensive end. Udoh is a good passer for his position, something the Warriors could really use. In college Udoh was extremely active on the offensive rebounding arena grabbing an impressive 3.6 rebounds per game in 35.1 minutes. Udoh was a more than adequate defender in college. Udoh isn't quite as effective as other big men in college having a 49% FG%, and although it is said that he has a good jumpshot, Udoh should avoid 3pt shots at all times. On the Warriors Udoh would probably play center, his versatility would benefit the Warriors tremendously, although he wouldn't be able to get as many defensive rebounds as Biedrins, he would be a more versatile player that would create for others as well as himself. It will be interesting to see how well Udoh does when he is invited to workouts.

 

Greg Monroe: I have no clue as to why Monroe has been listed so low on the draft boards. Monroe Ekpe Udoh is a versatile scorer, but he is more effective. Monroe is an even better passer than Udoh, putting up an impressive 3.8 per game assists in college. Also though Monroe really doesn't have a good jump shot and his post game isn't perfect, he can create shots for himself off the dribble. Monroe also has shown good defensive awareness something most 19 year old players don't show. When I see Monroe I see a player who could help the Warriors immediately and could make an even bigger impact in a few years.

 

Ed Davis: Davis is 6'9” and 215 pounds although people say he plays “much bigger than he is.” Davis is an efficient scorer. The good thing about Davis from the perspective of the Warriors is his ability to run the floor. Another good aspect of Davis's game is that he is very capable of catching passes inside and finishing when he has position underneath the rim. Davis is only 19 and would be a risk, if he develops more scoring tools and gains some weight he would be a very useful player. Davis's scouting report reminds me of a less refined Brandon Wright. We already have Brandon Wright and I hear he may have gained some weight yet has lost much of his offensive and defensive ability due to being constantly injured.

 

Patrick Patterson: Patterson is 21 years old and for some reason people ignore him. Patterson is an outstandingly efficient player. Patterson is staying in school to finish off his degree, I always like players who do that. Also Patterson plays smart, he knew his role in college and although he never tried to do too much, he has shown an incredible repertoire. He has a good jump shot all the way up to the 3pt line. Patterson also seems to carry his good basketball IQ over to the defensive end, causing problems for undersized forwards. Patterson is remarkably non turnover prone, which would be great for a Warriors team who seems to thrive at turning the ball over. Patterson's weak points are his size, at 6'8” 223 Patterson is small for a power forward in the NBA. Patterson also has not been a great rebounder at the college level which is not very good for the Warriors

 

Final Verdict: Greg Monroe seems like the best mix of talent and ability. Patterson would probably help the Warriors the most immediately. I personally would draft Monroe, but I would be happy with Patterson, Udoh or even Aldrich. I would simply want to avoid Aminu or Davis.

 

Trade Options: What all these possibilities have in common is that they are all either PF/C in the for the Golden State System. Therefor out trade block could include, Biedrins, Turiaf, Randolph and Wright. It is possible that our draft pick could make it possible for us to Unload Maggette's contract and actually get something in return (like a suitable point forward.) Lets imagine that Randolph is traded with Maggette and we draft Greg Monroe. This is what our starting lineup would look like.

 

Curry, Watson

Ellis, Williams, Morrow

(Suitable Point Forward), Azubuike

Monroe, Wright, Tolliver?

Biedrins, Turiaf

 

The sad thing is that I have no idea if that lineup would be any better than the one we had last year or the year before. Without a top four pick it looks like the Warriors will have to do more to shake up the roster if they want avoid a return to the lottery. Also if you trade Randolph and replace him with Monroe or an equivalent draft pick it is spurious to believe that the draft pick will have any more upside or be anymore effective than Randolph, who himself is still young enough to be a draft pick.

 

This situation is perilous and I really do think that the Warriors need to shake up their roster this off season. There is something horribly wrong with any team that plays worse with its highest payed players in the lineup. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/351259-golden-state-of-depression-ellis-biedrins-maggette-need-new-homes

 

Ellis needs to be willing to take a backseat to Curry at the point and play off the ball. Maggette is efficient but he kills ball movement and the mixture of Maggette and Don Nelson creates the oportunity to play Maggette as a PF we cannot give Don Nelson that opportunity. Maggette would be great on a team that plays a half court offense and needs an efficient scorer, this is not the Warriors. Biedrins needs to come back completely healthy and ready to be as good as he was before last year or else he becomes a liability.

 

The Warriors can come back next year better than last year but that will require improvement not just through new talent but it will have to come from improvement in the talent we have. Getting the No. 6 pick does seem like a slap in the face, considering the Wizards got the No. 1 pick(a team we won a coin toss against for position.) But the No. 6 pick if we just stick with the talent we have, trade players when appropriate and draft appropriately we will be in a good place, sadly it looks like the 8th seed in the playoffs might be too much to ask for 2010-2011, although it is not completely out of reach if we have healthy team that lives up to the talent we have seen them have in glimpses.

If I Were the King of the Warriors

 

The 2009-2010 NBA season is over the Warriors have had an injury plagued season. The team has many assets and liabilities and is on the verge of being sold. I buy the team I make myself the GM.

 

I. Players That May or May Not be Warriors Next Year

 

Stephen Curry

 

Offense: Obviously Curry is a future star in the league capable of putting up 20 PPG and 7-8 APG efficiently. Curry's shooting is unbelievable for a rookie and his passing has potential to improve the efficiency of his teammates.

 

Defense: Curry is not the best but he will most likely improve. Curry is not as bad as some people claim he is on defense. What he lacks in lateral quickness he makes up for in forcing turnovers, remember a steal not only takes away an attempt from your opponents, it also is likely to give your team an attempt. Curry's main problem defensively from what I see is being out muscled by stronger opponents, he does his best but there is not much he can really do. All of his other skills make up for this weakness.

 

Monta Ellis

 

Offense: Despite scoring relentlessly and making some spectacular plays Ellis's efficiency has dropped in the last two seasons. Having a player shoot so many times at such bad efficiency is like having a poison pill on your team. With that being said no one should fault Ellis for taking so many shots on a team with 8 active players most of which were not drafted, from the D-league or unproven. On a positive note Ellis seems to be developing a better 3 point shot.

 

Defense: Ellis has absolutely proven that he is a good defender I have no clue why people criticize him on defense. Ellis guards larger opponents effectively, forces turnovers and does as good a job as you could ask for someone of his build and height.

 

Corey Maggette

 

Offense: Maggette is a awesomely efficient player and that is great, but he is also a catch 22. Maggette seems to know that he is efficient and when he gets the ball he rarely passes, when he is at his best he is driving to the rim drawing fouls and hitting jump shots. When he is at his worst he is missing jump shots and killing the ball movement on the team. I don't think Maggette is used to playing with a point guard like Curry, he is best in one on one situations.

 

Defense: Maggette seems to have somewhere between bad and average defense. He is definitely not a lock down defender, but he isn't a slouch either. Corey doesn't force a ton of turnovers either.

 

Anthony Randolph

 

Offense: Randolph takes too many shots for his current level of offensive efficiency. Randolph should at this point take a limited number of jump shots and refrain from driving into the lane with the ball aside from maybe one or two attempts until he is more effective. Randolph could be a powerful offensive weapon if he played off the ball and around the rim receiving passes for dunks and tipping in offensive rebounds. Right now Randolph tries to do too much for his current skill level, he isn't letting the game come to him. Really it is either that the coaching staff has done a bad job instructing him what to do, or he is too immature to follow directions.

 

Defense: Randolph grabs rebounds well and blocks shots well, but he is too skinny to be a good post defender he is easily out muscled by many opposing centers and forwards. If the Warriors are going to keep Randolph as their power forward of the future Randolph needs to gain weight, or they need to have another better defensive presence down low to off set Randolph's weakness. Like his offensive game Randolph's defense seems unfocused and erratic. All of this is to be expected for someone of his age.

 

Andris Biedrins

 

Offense: Everyone knows that Biedrins is good at cleaning up on the offensive glass and tipping the ball in. He also has soft hands and a very small inkling of a post game. Biedrins has great field goal percentage numbers which are unfortunately negated somewhat by his atrocious free throw shooting. Biedrins can be counted on for some fairly efficient scoring that happens only when the ball just happens to be in his hands at exactly the right time.

 

Defense: Biedrins is a great defensive rebounder and he can block shots too. Biedrins is a little better than Randolph at post defense, but he is still very bad. Biedrins will have to double the intense focus he has had in the past to play alongside Randolph on the defensive end if the duo will ever be effective defensively.

 

C.J. Watson

 

Offense: Watson sometimes has outbursts of scoring and he does so somewhat effectively. He can out muscle smaller point guards but his outside shot is not as effective as others on the team and he is undersized for being a two guard.

 

Defense: Watson is undersized and doesn't do a fantastic job guarding 2 guards. Watson's saving grace is that he forces a ton of turnovers and seems to annoy the hell out of opponents on the defensive end. Watson is basically an average defender when it comes down to it.

 

Anthony Morrow

 

Offense: Morrow's offensive game has been greatly expanded as he now drives to the basket in slow motion occasionally and has developed a knack for hitting quick contested jumpers from close range. Morrow is efficient as one can be offensively thanks to his patented, revolutionary and never before seen 3 point shot.

 

Defense: Morrow makes himself a pest and he tries really hard but he has bad lateral quickness and can be beaten badly by opponents driving past him. Morrow creates a lot of jump balls and he hustles like crazy on the defensive end, but his athleticism holds him back.

 

Reggie Williams

 

Offense: Williams randomly and suddenly developed a deadly jump shot somewhere between college and present day. In the past he wasn't even that good of a FT shooter, now he past half way decent. Reggie Williams finds ways to score and he does so remarkably efficiently. Williams is also the total package offensively, he is more than willing to pass. If he were a few years younger and we had drafted him in the first round he would be talked about throughout the NBA and be even more revered by Warriors fans. The addition of Williams may have given the Warriors enough wins to effectively knock us out of the top 3 in lotto balls. Out consolation prize however is pretty good its Reggie Williams.

 

Defense: Williams is less impressive on the defensive end. Williams is another Warrior in a long line of Warriors who tries hard despite not having the natural tools to be a great defender in the NBA. Williams seems to be disciplined enough to sometimes rise above his averageness and become effective in tight spots.

 

Brandon Wright

 

Offense: Wright is less versatile but more effective than Randolph on the offensive end he even has what seems to be a post game. Wright isn't the most spectacular player and won't be able to turn the franchise around but he is better than people have given him credit for.

 

Defense: Reports surfaced that Wright had gained some weight and everyone was happy because Wright cannot defend larger opponents down low due to his extremely skinny frame. To make matters worse Wright also seems to do the wrong things on the defensive end. His rebounding is average and his shot blocking seems to be good but that only masks Wrights fairly large defensive issues. On the bright side Wright like Randolph is a very young player and still has room to improve.

 

Rony Turiaf

 

Offense: Nothing much to Turiaf's game, he can hit short jumpers sometimes but his major offensive ability is getting the ball down low at just the right time and dunking it. Turiaf takes few shots but he is an efficient scorer in his limited attempts.

 

Defense: Turiaf blocks shots incredibly well but his rebounding is not fantastic for someone his size. Turiaf's post defense seems to be better than Biedrins although still not elite by any stretch. Also Turiaf seems to show some stamina issues.

 

Vladamir Radmanovic

 

Offense: At this point Radmanovic seems to be a shooting forward that misses a lot of shots and is not very effective offensively. In the past Radmanovic has been near deadly from beyond the arc but his days of shooting over 40% from beyond the arc seem to be gone or in remission. Radmanovic is known to be a streaky shooter, with the Warriors he has not been streaky and I will leave it at that.

 

Defense: Radmanovic showed good effort and hustle in his short stint before getting injured. Radmanovic could be called a decent defender. He forces jump balls saves balls from flying out of bounds, he also gets his hands in opponents faces and makes them perturbed.

 

Anthony Tolliver

 

Offense: Tolliver started out pretty slow, but got better at the twilight of the season. Tolliver isn't particularly efficient but he can shoot a three just well enough to make his shots worth wild and he can scrap for points down low as well. This is a good reason the Warriors might want to bring Tolliver back next year.

 

Defense: A better defender at power forward than Wright or Randolph and a decent rebounder. Tolliver puts in tremendous effort on the defensive end and it seem to pay off fairly well. He isn't great but he is solid.

 

Chris Hunter

 

Offense: Hunter benefits from point guards who pass him the ball at the right time. Hunter's jump shot is not great but it seems to at least exist in some fashion. He doesn't seem to be as adapt at running the floor with the rest of the team.

 

Defense: Hunter seems to be an effective low post defender part of the time, probably more effective at guarding the low post than the other centers. This is a strong case for keeping Hunter on next year.

 

Kelenna Azubuike

 

Offense: Azubuike has always been an effective member of the Warriors until the injury. Azubuike is a versatile player who can get to the rim and shoot threes and do it all fairly efficiently, lets hope the Warriors get the same Azubuike back offensively after the year long hiatus.

 

Defense: Azubuike can grab boards for being 6'5” this is a needed skill for the Warriors if they want to compete in that category. Azubuike seems to play average one on one defense but doesn't force as many turnovers as some of his compatriots.

 

II. Trading Block: Creating a More Cohesive Core

 

I think that the biggest weakness of the team is the low post defense and the lack of size down low. Wright and Randolph are two raw power forwards on the same team this is unnecessary. I agree that both have potential hut one of them has to go we cannot afford to give significant minutes to players who are that Raw. Of the two I would trade Randolph only because he seems to be deemed more of a future star and therefore could yield more of a return.

 

Randolph or Wright

 

Between Ellis and Curry it is clear that Ellis is more expendable. I think that Ellis can play with Curry effectively but for the right price I would personally be willing to let Ellis go.

 

Ellis

 

With Azubuike coming back and Williams slated to be on the team next season Maggette seems to be the odd man out, with a large contract. Clearly trading Maggette would not bring us equal talent but Azubuike and Williams seem to be good candidates for Maggette's job. I would trade mid season to see is Azubuike is back to full health.

 

Maggette

 

We need a low post defender and we also need rebounds. Although his rebounds would be sorely missed the team cannot afford to be out muscled down low every night like we did in 2009-2010. Only trade Biedrins if you can get a player who can run the floor and defend down low, which is not an easy task. This makes Turiaf only expendable if Biedrins is not traded.

 

Biedrins or Turiaf

 

Radmanovic will be a valuable expiring contact and will make for a good piece to a package.

 

Vladamir Radmanovic

 

If we do resign C.J. Watson we might be able to package him with someone else and get something from him mid season.

 

C.J. Watson

 

New Core without taking into account what was received through trades.

 

Curry/(need back up PG that can create shots for others)

Williams/Morrow/Azubuike

Azubuike/Williams

Randolph or Wright/Tolliver

Biedrins or Turiaf/Hunter

 

Target Players(Players that can help that maybe we could get in a trade)

 

Andre Iguodala

Amar'e Stoudimire

Chris Bosh

Emeka Okafor

Carlos Boozer

Andrei Kirlenko

Brendan Haywood

Ron Artest

Tayshaun Prince

 

III: Draft

 

Priorities Based on Talent

 

1. Wall: Future Super Star?

2. Cousins: Future dominant center?

3. Turner: Solid versatile SG/SF?

4. Favors: The Next Stoudemire?

 

Priorities Based on Need

 

1. Turner: Most polished player

2. Favors: Only because he is still a raw talent

3. Cousins: Can he run the floor, does he have stamina?

4. Wall: We have Curry, Wall won't be great for a few years

 

It is my belief that if we get a pick past No. 4 it is expendable in a trade package for something more valuable at the moment for the Warriors.

 

If we get the No. 1 pick we should package Wall with Maggette's contact for a block buster trade. There is no sense in getting Wall when we have Curry, and there is no sense on passing up the value of Wall as a player for another team. This would be a controversial decision that may be mocked by generations of fans but I believe that it would make the Warriors better.

 

If we get the No. 2 pick we should draft Turner and never look back, we should trade the necessary players to give Turner significant time at SG/SF.

If we get the No. 3 pick we should draft Favors, we should make sure that he knows his role with the team and racket up his playing time as the year progressed.

 

If we get the No. 4 pick we should draft Cousins and finally have a low post scorer/tough defender and platoon him with the existing centers until he gets accustom to the Warriors system and improves his stamina enough to play more minutes.

 

IV. Coaching

 

Next year will be Nelson's last year as the coach and in my opinion Nelson is the right coach for the current team. The Warriors are built around Nelson and although I don't like some of Nelson's decisions I think that he would be the most effective coach for the team next year.

 

I would like to have a protegee, maybe Keith Smart to take over after Nelson is done. What I want to see carry over from Neslon is the fast paced exciting Warrior we are used to maybe just smarter and with a better ability to play half-court if needed. What I would not like to see is a team that is purposefully put on a rebounding disadvantage. Rebounding is such an important part of t he game it is hard to win when you can't out rebound opponents.

 

If the Warriors become more successful and start making the early rounds of the playoffs I would hire a more high profile coach that slowly brings the team away from the current run and gun strategy to create a more perinatal playoff contender that would have the ability to attract a premier player preferably a center and possibly win a championship or two.

 

Conclusion: It is difficult to find an efficient point guard that makes his teammates more efficient, almost as hard as it is to find a big man that can defend and run the court. The current Warriors team is broken mostly because of a lack of defense against teams that have the ability to score down low. The Warriors also lack defense in other areas as well, and have an inexperienced core at the power forward position. These problems must be remedied. If that means trading a star like Monta Ellis, or trading a future super star like the no. 1 pick that is what needs to be done.

Many things are uncertain about where the Warriors franchise is going. Don Nelson will eventually have his record and he will no longer be the coach of the Golden State Warriors. Will the Warriors still have the same run and gun approach without Nelson or will the team attempt go go for a more conventional approach? The Warriors have many talented players who have either failed to live up to their potential thus far or have been plagued with injuries. The Warriors are in a position this year to get a very high draft pick, despite the fact there is a lot of existing talent on their team.   With such a high draft pick do the Warriors draft based on talent alone or do they draft based on need?

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Starting Lineup

 

Andris Biedrins C

Anthony Randolph PF

Corey Maggette SF

Monta Ellis SG

Stephen Curry PG

Ronny Turiaf C

Brandan Wright PF

Kelenna Azubuike SF

Anthony Morrow SG

C.J. Watson PG

Vladamir Radmanovic SF

Chris Hunter C

 

These are the players that I will evaluate as being part of a “healthy” Golden State Warriors team. I am excluding Tolliver, George, and Bell. I understand Bell may be with the team next year, but it would be very difficult to evaluate his ability since he has not played very much this year and I am unsure what his role will be if he stays in Oakland. George was really only acquired as an expiring contract. Tolliver has had some impressive games this year but I am hard pressed to see him getting any minutes on a healthy Warriors squad.

 

 Note:  This is not an end all projection and I understand it is flawed but it is the most sound logic that I can back up with some semblance of numerical analysis.

 

I am evaluating the offense based on the idea that the Warriors will average approximately 85 to 86 shots taken per game. This is based off of this year's team average for the season, and a historic team average when playing under Don Nelson. I distribute 241 based on this years average for total minutes played per game for the team. The minutes distributed will be “perfect world” minutes based on the team being completely healthy for one entire year. I understand that through the course of any basketball season players will miss a few games and this will inflate the minutes of certain players that come off the bench, as well as starters that have good stamina.

 

Biedrins 27 MPG at Center

Turiaf 18 MPG at Center 3 MPG at Power Forward

Hunter 3 MPG at Center 2 MPG at Power Forward

Randolph 25 MPG at Power Forward

Wright 16 MPG at Power Forward

Maggette 25 MPG at Shooting Forward 3 MPG at Power Forward

Azubuike 20 MPG at Shooting Forward 3 MPG at Shooting Guard

Vladimir Radmonovic 1 MPG at Shooting Forward

Ellis 30 MPG at Shooting Guard 7 MPG at Point Guard

Morrow 12 MPG at Shooting Guard 2 MPG at Shooting Forward

Curry 32 MPG at Point Guard

C.J. Watson 9 MPG at Point Guard 3 MPG at Shooting Guard

 

Now based on these minutes I will calculate how many shots each player will take on average per game using basketball reference.

 

Biedrins 6.6 FGA per game (based on career averages)

Randolph 9.86 (based on career averages)

Maggette 11.41 (based on career average)

Ellis 19.7 (based on this year's average)

Curry 11.37 (based on this year's average)

Azubuike 7.98 (based on career average)

Turiaf 4.2 (based on career average)

Wright 5.3 (based on career average)

Morrow 4.7 (based on career average)

C.J. Watson 3.4 (based on career average)

Hunter 1.3 (based on this year)

Radmonovic .32 (based on career average)

 

All of this adds up to 86.14 which is close to the amount of shots taken per game this year, and almost identical to the 2008-2009 average of 86.03

 

Biedrins 9.15 PPG

Randolph 11.7 PPG

Maggette 16.91 PPG (would be 18.26 based on this year's level of efficiency, but I highly doubt Maggette could keep that number up.)

Ellis 23.0 PPG

Curry 13.68 PPG

Azibuike 9.96 PPG

Turiaf 6.475 PPG

Wright 7.11 PPG

Morrow 6.06 PPG

Watson 4.46 PPG

Hunter 1.57 PPG

Radmanovic .37 PPG

 

When I add up the total points per game the total average number of points scored per game would be 110.45. The current Warriors team has given up an average of 110.8 points per game. The 2008-2009 team gave up 112.3 points per game. If I were to average the last two seasons together then the warriors would give up 111.55.

 

If the Warriors this year scored at the same efficiency that would theoretically give them 110.45 PPG on 86.15 field goals attempted per game on the same amount of shots (85.37) they have taken this year their per game average of points per game would be 109.45.

 

Note:  If Maggette did keep this year's efficiency up the total points scored by the Warriors would be 111.8. (( Prorated to the amount of shots the Warriors have attempted this year the total would be 110.78))

 

This means that if the Warriors were completely healthy they would probably only be slightly below .500. If a healthy Warriors team were to play there is a considerably good chance that they would be able to hold opponents to less than 110.45 points per game. For instance the 48-34 Warriors team from 2007-2008 held opponents to 108.8 points per game.

 

The offensive production could also be improved on a healthy Warriors team if current trends continue, with the young core of Curry and Randolph becoming more efficient scorers as they become more experienced.

 

One glaring deficiency with the Warriors offense is Ellis's inefficiency. Clearly there this could be because of a lack of talent surrounding Ellis on the current Warrior roster. It could be true that if it were others that were taking Ellis's excess shots they would be just as inefficient or even more inefficient than Monta. With a fully healthy team filled with scorers like Azubuike and Randolph Ellis would probably not take as many bad shots and therefore improve his efficiency.

 

Also as Curry continues to be comfortable in the PG role, it is possible that Ellis will play off the ball more often. If one looks at the 2007-2008 Warriors team Monta was a much more efficient scorer. Also if one watches the Warriors it is clear that every bit of Monta'a athleticism has returned after his major injury. If Monta were to return to his 2007-2008 playing style adding his new and improved 3 point accuracy Monta would score 22.03 points on 16.7 shots in 37 minutes played. He would give up 3 shots but only lose 1 PPG. Monta very well could put up these numbers given as he has been over played this season and fatigue may very well be playing into his lack of efficiency. If these three shots were given to Curry and Curry maintained 75% of his efficiency on those shots the team would increase their total points averaged per game to 112.18. I understand 112.18 points per game is a perfect world projection, but it isn't much of a stretch if you consider all the young players on the team

 

With Curry's emergence as a NBA point guard with excellent court vision it wouldn't be a stretch to say that in the future the Warrior bigs like Turiaf, Biedrins, Randolph and Wright might get more easy buckets due to assists. It is not unreasonable in my opinion for the current Warriors team to score 113-114 points per game if they stay completely healthy.

 

So the current group of Warriors has potential to be a playoff team as long as they stay healthy. Without an efficient low post scorer, and a defensive presence down low I don't see the Warriors becoming a Championship type team. To complicate matters with the Warriors current style of play they need to get an efficient low post scorer with good low post defense that can also run the floor extremely well. These players are generally extremely hard to find and extremely expensive to sign or acquire.

 

The Warriors need to develop a winning culture with what they have in order to attract the type of player they need, or they need to continue to play badly and wait to get lucky in the draft.  A big name player with an expiring contract or a big time free agent needs to know that the Warriors are stable and competitive before they will sign with the team.

 

The other option is as many on this site has suggested is to get rid of Nelson and his small ball, trade Maggette and Ellis and start from scratch centering the team around Curry. In my opinion the Warriors need to build on what they have and not throw their players away simply to dump their contracts.  Trading away talent has been a major problem for many years for this organization.

 

Now is not the time to panic the Warriors already have a high level of talent and will only improve due to the 2010 draft. The Warriors have had 8 players available most of the year even if the warriors were healthy this year they probably would have still been slightly below .500, and they would not have been in good draft position. Curry is currently getting tons of playing time, and is developing nicely. It is possible that without this losing season Curry would have not been able to show the team and the fans what he is truly capable of.

 

For my final example I am going to project Anthony Randolph's offense at only 15% increased efficiency. The Warriors would score a total of 3.67 more points per game on the same amount of shots(assuming he plays only 27 minutes per night.) I believe Randolph is completely capable of reaching this mark as well as also improving other aspects of his game given as if he is only 20 years old at the moment.

 

So the future actually could be very bright for the Warriors. This depends entirely on the front office. Not necessarily who the front office trades or does not trade, but on the restraint the front office shows in not trading away the most important parts of what could be a very good Warriors team.

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Billy Beane is known for his creative deals.  Beane wishes to buy low and sell high.  Beane looks for attributes in players, that others don't see and he trades players that many fans don't want to see go.  Using Beanes own logic I have concocted my own ideas for trades.

First I looked at our own roster, and looked at players that we should trade because they won't be in Oakland next year.  Giambi, Holliday, Garciaparra,  Wuertz, and Springer come to mind.  Of those five only Holliday and Wuertz have any real value.

The next thing I did was look at players that are having a good deal of success that can be replaced fairly easily.  The two areas where the A's are absolutely stacked are in starting pitching and relief pitching.  As much as I like Dallas Braden, I believe trading him now might net us a hitting prospect that may help us down the road.

There are other players that are under performing but still have some trade value due to age and past success, Santiago Casilla and Dana Eveland fit that bill.  These players can be used to tip the scale in the A's favor in getting a trade accomplished.

The next thing I did was I looked at what the A's need.  The A's need hitting, even though we have some great prospects in the minors, even the minors are filled with more legitimate pitching prospects (especially relief pitching) than hitting prospects.

The last thing I did was look at the standings, I looked at the teams that needed offense(Holiday), relief pitching(Wuertz) and starting pitching(Braden.)  Potential trade partners could be Tampa Bay, San Francisco, The Chicago White Sox, The Tampa Bay Devil Rays, The Minnesota Twins, and the Chicago Cubs and even the division rivals of Seattle, and Texas.

1.  Tampa Bay:  The Devil Rays are in a crowded division, and they need as much power as they can get.  Matt Holliday would be a rental player for Tampa Bay so they probably would be less willing to give up a whole lot for Holliday.  However if the A's can get Reid Brignac they should try.

Holliday for Reid Brignac

2.  San Francisco:  The Giants are desperate for some more offensive capabilities, if Holliday performs well in San Francisco the Giants potentially could sign him to a deal.  The only issue is that the Giants would be unwilling or unable to give up their two most prized offensive prospects in Posey, and Villalona.  Nick Noonan would be the only young middle infielder the A's would want, and I would strive for more than just Nick Noonan, if the Giants threw in Bowker it would be a good deal.

Holliday and relief pitching prospect for Nick Noonan, and John Bowker

3.  The Minnesota Twins:  The Twins are in the hunt for the division, and they possess some interesting players.  The Twins probably would not be interested in Holliday but Dallas Braden as well as Michael Wuertz would be very helpful to their team.  Danny Velencia is a older 3B prospect who could play for the A's immediately, he could add some much needed depth to the A's third base situation, Angel Morales could also be involved.  Angel has stuggled as of late but he posseses a good upside still.  I believe that the Twins would be getting a cheap, reliable and effective pitcher in Braden, but you have to give to get.

Dallas Braden and Michael Wuertz for Danny Velencia, and Angel Morales

4.  Chicago White Sox:  The White Sox could really use Dallas Braden if they want to make a run for their division, they could also use Holliday as well.  Brandon Allen and Chris Getz are two impressive prospects for the White Sox. Getz is already in the Majors performing well.  Allen is a power hitting 1st baseman who draws lots of walks, and has played the outfield before.  The A's would be giving up a whole lot to trade Holliday and Braden but I actually think in the long run the trade would be worth it.

Dallas Braden and Matt Holliday for Brandon Allen, and Chris Getz

5.  The Chicago Cubs:  The other Chicago team could use Holliday and Wuertz(They had Wuertz before, and know what they are getting).  Holliday might be more valuable to the Cubs as well because the Cubs might be able to resign him.  There is one player the A's would want from the Cubs and that is Josh Vitters.  Vitters in a five star 3B prospect a few years from the Majors.

Matt Holliday, and Michael Wuertz for Josh Vitters

6.  The Texas Rangers:  The Rangers really want to make the playoffs.  The division has been dominated by the Angels and A's, even the Mariners had a division title in 2001.  Some more major league ready starting pitching, and relief pitching would to the Rangers a world of good.  Acquiring Chris Davis right now would be buying low, and trading Dallas Braden would be selling high, the guy can hit for power, and can play third base.  Although Davis's average is currently low he has a much higher average in the Minors.  The most unsettling thing about Davis is his low OBP.  Another bad thing about this trade is that the A's would have to face Braden a lot.

Dallas Braden for Chris Davis and PTBNL

7.  The Seattle Mariners:  Like the Rangers the Mariners are suffering a long playoff drought and are desperate to make it back.  The Mariners would love Holliday, and might possibly resign him, Wuertz would also help them.  The Mariners have a couple of prospects they may be willing to give up for Holliday, and Wuertz mainly Michael Saunders, and Carlos Triunfel.  Saunders is the kind of player the A's like good OBP, + defense, and hits hard line drives.  Triunfel is a young player with attitude problems, who is undergoing surgery, who has a hell of a lot of talent.

Matt Holliday and Michael Wuertz for Michael Saunders, and Carlos Triunfel

These are the trades that I thought of while scouring the Major leagues for talent.  I found a lot of players that I think the A's should be persuing in their rebuilding process.  In the I would pull the trigger on anyone of these trades, I don't think any of them would be unreasonable.  Almost all of these trade focus on getting the A's a strong offense in the future. 

-Warning incoming highly reactionary rant from a fan of a loosing team.

Note:  Rants like this can be found on any loosing team's forum.  With that being said let the repitition continue unabated!  Hopefully more rational minds will prevail, for I am probably completely wrong.

At this point in the season we need to get rid of anyone on the A's who is not going to be in Oakland next year.  We need to give guys like Cunningham, Buck, Petit, Denforfia, Pennington, Cardenas, Wimberly, Daric Barton(errrg), Chris Carter, Danny Putnam, Doolittle, Eric Patterson, Kevin Cameron(if he is not injured or something), Schroder, Blevins, and Demel.  We need to give everyone a chance to see what they have, not because they are better than the veterans on our team now, but because we are horrible, and have nothing to loose and everything to gain by fielding a AAA level team.

I know many will say that these guys need more time in the minors to "develop."  Well here is what I say about that...  When learning a foreign language is it better to take five years learning a language in school, or to immerse yourself in a the culture and learn it that way.  Is it better to wade into a pool or to jump into the deep end?  Are the Managers, hitting coaches and pitching coaches in the minors better than the ones in the majors(Never mind on that rhetorical question we have Geren, so probably yes they are.)

It is my opinion that a few of the above mentioned prospects will do suprisingly well, and prove that they in no way need anymore seasoning in the minors, and can learn better playing in the Big Leagues.

More A's players should grow crazy facial hair as well!

Also the A's should bring back Scutaro!

1.  We see what our farm guys can do.

2.  In my opinion the most entertaining thing about this season is to see the young talent, why not make this season more entertaining!  Honestly who is coming to the A's games to see Giambi at this point?

3.  As much as I hate to bring it up, loosing more will get us a higher draft pick next year.  I do not advocate loosing on purpose by playing badly, or lacking effort, everyone on the team should be driven to win every game.  Inevitably however since we would be fielding a ridiculously non-experienced team we would loose more than the average team.