Sorry about the lack of posts for the past few days - apparently, parents don't like realizing that they've raised an insomniac. Posts might be a little further spaced out, but with more links in each edition, depending on how much I can get done before I literally lose my Internet connection on school nights. Hey, that's what you get when a teenager is your news aggregator. Now, with that out of the way, here's the first set of links:

Does Boston's Trade for Jeremy Hermida Mean the End for Jason Bay in Beantown? - Bleacher Report

Though Hermida is by no means a middle-of-the-order slugger, this could very well signal the end of Jason Bay's tenure in Boston. Bay recently shot down a four-year, $60 million offer from the Sox, and his worth will only increase as the offseason wears on.

Among other reasons why Bay might not be returning, but if this sticks out to someone as a red flag of sorts, we'll have to see if they're right.

Marlins Trade Jeremy Hermida To Red Sox: A Sign of Things To Come - Bleacher Report

Due to the economy, these are the types of trades you are going to see this winter. Teams who can’t afford to wait on young players or can’t afford a player’s salary will be forced to trade them to teams who can.

Lots of different spins on this whole deal. Of course, Hermida was also part of another trade the Sox were involved in, or at least an attempt at one:

Let the Offseason Begin: Boston Red Sox Steal Hermida from Florida Marlins - Bleacher Report

That proposal didn’t gain any traction, and Hermida stayed with the Marlins, but despite missing out on his services, Boston remained infatuated with him and his potential, hoping he would someday be part of their quest for a World Series championship.

Totally forgot about the Manny-Marlins rumor. Although, now I do remember seeing a mockup of what Manny would look like in "fishstripes" on a Marlins' broadcast (don't remember why I was watching that). It was amazing how quickly they jumped on that rumor.

Jeremy Hermida: Bust Or Breakout - Bleacher Report

Seems to be more common view of the trade.

Yeah, I know, not much variety so far; it is interesting to see the variety of opinions available from relatively unconnected authors, as opposed to here, where the discussions can help figure out how we should feel about certain issues. After the jump, some more "independent" writing, an important discovery from YWA, and more general Hot Stove linkage.

Continue reading this post »

I declare it so. I don't care that I don't have the authority to do so, in my world, it's officially Pedro Day again in the Nation.

Game 6 script perfect for [Pedro] Martinez - The Boston Globe

Oh, man, this is going to be SWEEEEEEET: it's the first time that we've had a really good reason to not care what logo is on Pedro's cap since he left us. In fact, more than just one reason...

Jim Donaldson: 27 reasons to root against the Yankees - The Providence Journal

In case anyone was leaning towards Mazz's crazy side.

Now, in more directly related news:

Red Sox pitcher Buchholz prepared to play mind games - The Boston Globe

Sounds like he's maturing. I would absolutely love to see Buch prove me wrong and become the ace that replaces Beckett as Lester's partner in crime. Also, we're pretty damn spoiled to be able to talk about phasing one of a pair of aces out with another one. Of course, we'd be rotten to keep all three, right?

Valuing Josh Beckett - Yawkey Way Academy

Going against popular opinion here; an argument FOR signing Beckett to a relatively large extension.

After the jump, more links, likely in rapid fire mode, because it's hard to focus with it being a national holiday and what not.

Continue reading this post »

We've been in Hot Stove mode for a while now, and there's no reason to stop now.

Trade Market: Third Basemen - MLBTradeRumors.com

Trade Market: Left Fielders - MLBTradeRumors.com

Anyone stand out as viable option? Well, some people have everything figured out for us, so we don't even have to worry ourselves with the issue:

Time To Change Their Ways: Signing Bay Needs To Be a Red Sox Priority - Bleacher Report

There are no equivalent alternatives. It’s Bay or Matt Holliday (yikes) or some one-year stopgap in left. Or it’s trading a handful of prospects to find a player who best compares with a player you already have. The options aren’t exactly appealing.

Had to read through half the article to find the money quote: Anyone who is scared of Holliday, please try to convince OTHER teams of this.

Overpaying Orlando Cabrera Could Be Dangerous Risk For Red Sox - NESN.com

And if the Red Sox are willing to grant second chances to Gonzalez, who seemed to be past his prime and had found little success in the American League, why wouldn't they grant the same courtesy to Orlando Cabrera?

Because that makes no sense? It's a "dangerous risk" because we'd be playing a crappy SS, one who would be overpaid for pretty much any price he demands.

Now here's a decent idea:

Building a Package for Javier Vazquez - Yawkey Way Academy

Now we just have to 1) convince most Sox fans that it would be a good trade, and 2) figure out who we'd give up for him.

After the jump, Fielding Bible awards released, more decade wrap-up stuff, a preview for next season, and concerns about parity.

Continue reading this post »

Hopefully everyone set their clocks back and you aren't reading this as a way to pass the time because you woke up too early and can't get back to sleep. But hey, you're reading this, so let's get to the links.

Creating Obscure Red Sox Shirts - Sox Tea Party

I need to look into getting myself a Jed shirt...

Chips Are in Place for Adrian Gonzalez Trade to Red Sox - NESN.com

No new info here - not even a suggested package. Even the worst bloggers come up with a package, as ridiculous as most of them end up being (MDC + Lugo get it done, becuz they can't even ask four that from the Sox!!!).

Runs Created: A First Step - Intro to Sabermetrics 101

Today’s Friday lecture will discuss the first of many steps taken to estimate a number of runs. Bill James’ Runs Created, initially published in an early version of the classic Bill James Historical Abstract (in Dan Fox’s explanation, he has it as the 1979 version), was one of the first run estimation models and is likely the most well known. As a result, it will be the first of a few run estimators that we’ll look into here.

Has A-Rod lost his postseason magic? - Bleacher Report

IT'S NOT MAGIC - it's just random variance in performance output.

After the jump, Forbes needs to retake Statistics, Fire Brand gets another prospect interview, and the Padres are taking our guys.

Continue reading this post »

The title, of course, means that there will be minimal references to dead items in this post. See how the irony worked there? No? Okay, I need to stop trying to be funny then.

How the Economy Will Affect Salaries - Beyond the Box Score

Does the growth in GDP augur well for free agents to be this offseason? Or will discerning teams still find bargains?

Oh, wait, here's a link about something dead Nevermind, just read the first bit of the link again. Yay for a non-flushed economy! Anyways...

EXCELLENT info. AND it's been updated to meet the community's suggestions. Great job by Tommy Bennett; this data should come in helpful when looking at the big names this offseason.

It wasn’t just the good numbers - it was that he was locked in, confident, and loose! - Inside the Book

So fun to mess with some of my baseball fan friends over this. Seriously, even some of the MLB players understand this concept better than the experts; why is it so hard to believe that it's just bad luck?

Reasons to keep Jacoby Ellsbury in Center - Yawkey Way Academy

Pretty much what we've established as the default reason: the net defensive gain wouldn't offset the offensive loss, without a really good CF. If we can find one because some other team has a brain fart, go for it; if not, keep Ells in CF and have him practice fielding balls launched from home plate for a few hours each day.

Of course, Troy Patterson explains it a bit more academically than I just did. Plus, they have OTM on their blogroll, so there's that.

A-Rod Scandal of the Week: Creepy Bedroom Portraits - Fenway West

Umm... centaurs? Oh...kay... This has to be some sort of joke meant to scare us for Halloween, right?

After the jump, Jose and other SS options to compliment (supplement?) Jed, and an argument for expanded replay.

Continue reading this post »

Clay Buchholz' Transformation - Yawkey Way Academy

Pitch F/X breakdowns are FUN!!! Perhaps we need to look into the available pitchers using this technique. Hmm...

In the meantime, here's some other links about those pitchers:

Pitcher Rich Harden Worth a Test Drive for Thrifty Red Sox - NESN.com

Pros & Cons: Erik Bedard - The Bottom Line

Good to see that everyone is looking for every option possible. Of course, there are sometimes when those options should be for Plan B, not Plan A; here's an obvious (to me) situation:

The 2009 Shortstop Free Agent Market - Fire Brand of the American League

We definitely don't need to overpay for some safety net. While it's important to account for the risk associated with Jed's wrist, players shouldn't be paid more than they're worth when there's similar talent available.

How much will the Red Sox spend in 2010? - The Bottom Line

Taking the information from Mazz's column, Bottom Line has created a table showing the expected payroll of the Sox.

After the jump, a few more links to get you to quittin' time. Think BIG: big question, big trade, big difference of opinion.

Continue reading this post »

Guess what I found? An opportunity for OTM to become one of the most saber-friendly Sox blogs out there!

The International Currency of Baseball - Intro to Sabermetrics 101
Time to start studying up - in fact, here's a whole bunch of other material:

The Value of Walks and Baseball’s "Clock" - Intro to Sabermetrics 101

Intro to Sabermetrics 101: Glossary Sect. 1 - Intro to Sabermetrics 101
Pythag and expectancies

Intro to Sabermetrics 101: Glossary Sect. 2 - Intro to Sabermetrics 101
wOBA, defense, and DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics)

Intro to Sabermetrics 101: Glossary Sect. 3 - Intro to Sabermetrics 101
Replacement level and WAR

The author of that blog also writes for the SB Nation sabermetric site, Beyond the Boxscore. His work, along with the rest of a small army of writers', are HIGHLY recommended, and I'm not just saying that because we're connected to them (it's not like I get anything of tangible value out of it).

From another site, a link that isn't necessarily sabermetric, but still a good read:

Overreaction Comes in Many Forms - Yawkey Way Academy

Yeah, I'm probably going to be linking to some sites every day - they're just too good to ignore. Besides, some of this stuff needs to be spread; this time it's a reminder not to throw stones while living in glass houses.

That should hold y'all over for a while. If you have a particularly voracious appetite for links, there's some interesting hot stove ideas after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Since I missed the Filter for yesterday (sorry, couldn't see straight because of a pounding headache), here's some of the links that would have worked better yesterday:

5 YEARS AGO TODAY...WE WERE KINGS - Masshole Sports

Amazing to see the immediate reactions again with more hindsight.

2004: Where Are They Now? - Full Count

Excellent link if you want to see how much things can change in five years.

Chat with Jacoby Ellsbury - ESPN Boston

Darn, I would have asked him about his reads. Oh well, maybe someone will catch him next time.

Aroldis Chapman and a bucket of cold water - Yawkey Way Academy

Calm it down, peeps. Even if he is visiting and throwing for us today, doesn't mean we're going after him - especially because we probably shouldn't, based on the information available.

Bloggers Assemble! - The Bottom Line

Any views expressed in there that you'd like to comment about? Interesting to see how different sites form different opinions.

After the jump, an MVP ballot, talking about defense, and more nostalgia (but not about the same subject).

Continue reading this post »

MLB Jumps The Gun - The Joy of Sox

The curse didn't work, unfortunately. Oh well. NEXT!

MLB's Greed is Killing the Postseason - Fenway West

Wow, it almost November. The conspiracy theorist inside me wants to scream "The MLB is cementing Jeter's claim to Mr. November", but you know, gotta keep that guy quiet some times.

The Game of the Year? - Surviving Grady

Our choice isn't to be revealed for a while, so I'll let y'all debate for now.

ESPN will fire Steve Phillips - Projo Sox Blog

Wah, wah, wah...

After the jump, more links with minimal connections between them. Well, there might be one common thread...

Continue reading this post »