SB Nation User Blog: burnt in ny

2008 Horns report card, part 2 - defense

burnt in ny — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 18:34:15 -0000

With this earlier post, I began a breakdown of Horns players by position starting with the offense. While offense wins BCS rankings and gets most of the press, I believe this Texas team achieved its 11-1 record on the back of its defense. The key word here is evolution; the defense has undergone a remarkable transformation this year, a baby turning into a teenager. Mack’s transformation of his defense from a 4-3 run plugger that depends on play-making safeties to a flexible, fast, pressurizing bee swarm to combat spread offenses is now nearing completion. All that remains is to develop those play-making safeties and find at least one more linebacker, and this becomes a defense that beats teams up (like they did to Kansas).

What’s left, and the Fiesta Bowl provides a great intermediate target, is to complete the journey from teenager to man for the 2009 season. So where are the Horns in that process?

Defensive Tackle – All summer, fans worried that Texas would be too light and too shallow in personnel to hold up for the season. The show was billed as Roy Miller and the Munchkins, since 260 pound DEs (in 2007) Lamarr Houston and Aaron Lewis bulked up to 275-280 and converted to tackle in the spring. That show never made it out of focus groups; what we got instead was The Gatling Gun, a group of gap-shooting disruptors that played hell with opposing teams’ running games and produced 7 sacks and an astounding 52 quarterback hurries (only 3 less than that produced by the much more ballyhooed defensive ends). In perhaps their finest game, the play of the DT’s actually forced Missouri to shrink the gaps between the center and guards, equivalent to a big-time tightening of the derriere and capitulation by a spread offense. Instead of a weakness, DT was a team strength. Individually, senior Roy Miller was a god, with 26 quarterback hurries (only one less than Brian Orakpo), 4 sacks, and 46 tackles with 10 for losses. How he could not be on the All Big 12 defensive team is beyond me. Miller’s stuffing of the Jeremy Maclin opening-play reverse against Missouri was the statement play of the game and maybe for the year. Although much less heralded, Aaron Lewis played better than expected and looks to be a very good player for 2009. Lamarr Houston, one of PB’s “my guys” from the pre-season, was somewhat disappointing, given his athletic talents. Aside from the distraction from the DWI incident in September, I suspect it’s a case of “You can take the DE to DT, but you can’t take the DE out of the DT,” or something like that. Houston ran himself out of too many plays and seemed to struggle to hold position when double-teamed. On the other hand, he’s been plagued with a nagging foot injury that has diminished his explosiveness. Despite all this, he was undeniably disruptive, because 7 (30%) of his 20 tackles went for loss and he delivered another 11 quarterback hurries.

DT is another position where Texas has a considerable advantage over their hulkier, slower counterparts on the Ohio State offensive line. With time for his foot to heal, Houston, together with Miller and Lewis could emerge as the disruptive force that stops Beanie Wells before he can generate a head of steam or makes him bounce outside, where the Longhorns’ speed advantage can come into play.

Backups: A true freshman, Kheeston Randall began getting on the field toward the end of the season, and junior Ben Alexander played well enough to spell a starter now and then. To my limited eye, there was never a huge dropoff when either was in the game. Randall, with a year of strength training and some additional bulk, could be a serious player in the years ahead.

Grade A-

Defensive End. As of this writing, Brian Orakpo has won the Lombardi, Nagurski, and Hendricks awards for the nation’s best lineman, defensive player, and defensive end, respectively. Next, we’ll find out he’s won the Medal of Honor. Short of Orakpo, does Texas have any defensive ends? I think the answer to that question is a resounding yes. The "other" ends in the 2008 campaign, senior Henry Melton and sophomores Sam Acho and Eddie Jones combined for 8 sacks, 16 tackles for loss and 29 quarterback hurries. Not exactly girl scouts. I must say I am more than impressed with Henry Melton, who went from a sad sack of a sophomore running back that seemed afraid to hurt somebody to a consistent, motorized force at DE who may yet play in an NFL always looking for pass rushers. This depth and aggressive play from the opposite side of the line prevented consistent double teams on Orakpo and allowed the defense to develop a remarkable fluidity and unpredictability that is the trademark of Will Muschamp. All this aggressiveness did lead to a certain vulnerability to screen passes, especially early in the season, but you can’t have everything.

In their two most recent BCS beatdowns by SEC teams, speed and power off the edge from the opposing team’s DE’s completely overwhelmed the Buckeyes. With Orakpo’s knee healed up and Acho’s confidence peaked for the Fiesta Bowl, the Horns DE’s could very well be the heavy artillery that takes out the command and control of one freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor. The key is not to sack him on every play but rather to collapse the pocket, making him stand and read defenses rather than run, free-lance and play sandlot football.

Backups: Although Orakpo and Melton seemed to always be on the field, Acho and Jones are not much of a drop-off. Their signature moment as a pair was the six-play goal-line stand against Kansas where each got a sack

Grade A+

Outside Linebackers – On one hand, we have Sergio Kindle, whose brutal tackles and pass rush kept the Horns in the game against Tech when every other player’s head was spinning demonically and has played like a beast ever since. I always think of him as "The Cleaner" for his tactic of delaying his pass rush until he sees that a. it really is a pass, and b. which way the quarterback might flush and then swooping in for the kill. He is easily the most disruptive and best pass-rushing linebacker in the Big 12. Then we have Roddrick Muckelroy, who has a different job of cleaning up draws, screens, dumpoff passes to running backs or fronting slot receivers who run hot routes. With all this responsibility, he is the first linebacker to record 100 tackles in a season and lead the team in tackles (by a wide margin in fact) since Derrick Johnson in 2004. He played monster games against UTEP, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech, but was dominated by Oklahoma State’s TE Brandon Pettigrew, and has virtually disappeared since the Texas Tech game (Colorado-Tech, averaged 11.6 tackles/game, but only 6 per game since). It may be that he’s injured but the team hasn’t reported it, but his on-again, off-again performances have left him off the All-Big 12 teams.

Given the Horns’ recent history of atrocious linebacking, this year’s play is a serious upgrade. But the team has been vulnerable to runs off the edge (see UTEP, Oklahoma State, and Baylor (incidentally Muckelroy’s worst game)) and good TE’s (Gresham, Coffman, and Pettigrew all had big games). It could be scheme-related, but somehow the outside linebackers seem a year away from being truly great. As a fan, I hope Kindle doesn’t turn pro, because I think he is still learning the LB position and could easily triple his signing bonus by playing another year for Muschamp.

This group needs to work out how to play the double TE set, because as sure as a Sunday morning, Ohio State will line up with 2 TE’s and pinch the DE’s, daring Kindle and Muckelroy to fight off the FB or make the right choice on a Pryor option play. While their athletic ability is unquestioned, their mental game needs an overhaul, or Beanie Wells just might wear out the UT defense.

Backups: Sophomore Keenan Robinson and freshman Emmanuel Acho have shown a few flashes, but neither has been on the field enough to tell what their potential might be. One encouraging sign of some quality depth is that Robinson was listed ahead of Kindle on the early depth charts in summer camp, until Kindle had shown Muschamp what he could do.

Grade: B (It’s a long way up from last year’s atrocity at all linebacker positions. Kindle is a difference-maker against spread offenses, but the defense has proved vulnerable to attacks on the outside LB’s in several games).

Inside Linebackers – Rashad Bobino and Jared Norton have shared this position all year. Bobino is the senior and a veteran of the 2005 championship year, but has been consistently ineffective throughout his last 3 years. Norton has a lot of athleticism, but has come up short in the smarts and pass coverage department repeatedly. Neither player’s play changed significantly from 2007, although both seem to have improved their ability to pick gaps and judge attack angles. The MLB position poses no real threat to offenses and has made few signature plays. In some games, particularly Oklahoma State and Tech, they seemed a significant liability with missed tackles, poor gap control, and being lost in pass coverage. This is a classic case of how experience may not make you a better player.

The Fiesta Bowl will test these two hombres in serious ways. Controlling their gaps in coordination with slanting defensive linemen will be key in any feasible plan for stopping Beanie Wells. Fans can only hope that they will "man up" for that job. Fortunately, the Buckeyes do not have an all-world TE to abuse them in pass coverage.

Backups: None

Grade: C (One of two remaining problem areas on defense. Luckily they have Miller & Co. in front of them).

Cornerbacks – This position has perhaps evolved the most during the year. The starters on the depth chart, Ryan Palmer and Deon Beasley, are likely the worst players (more on that later), and the subs, considering their youth, have been fairly spectacular. So let’s focus on the starters. Ryan Palmer seems to be the only DB with good enough hands to make an interception (he leads the team with 3), and in fact made a critical interception in blowing open the Baylor game. Nevertheless, his small size and lack of quickness and closing speed leaves him vulnerable to downfield blocking on outside runs. As the only senior, he was clearly the glue that helped hold the secondary together early in the year, but he is clearly ready to be supplanted by the wondrous Chykie Brown (more below). So now let’s turn our attention to the single most disappointing player on the team, Deon Beasley. You can see his talent in his ability to change direction. You can also see that he is the worst tackler on the defense, and the player most likely to be obliterated by a blocking wide receiver. Watching him be manhandled by Michael Crabtree and Dez Bryant felt like watching a movie on spousal abuse. Beasley versus the run on Roddrick Muckelroy’s side of the defense equals disaster. Interesting that the decline in Muckelroy’s performance has accompanied the period of Chykie Brown’s injury; hmmm… I think we have the point.

With Chykie Brown returned to health by the Fiesta Bowl, Horns fans can hope that Beasley gets relegated to the bench now that the team will not be facing a spread offense. Beasley versus the run is scary. Beasley vs. Beanie is called hide the children. While the Brown’s are not exactly the return of former UT great Quentin Jammer (who I thought was one of the best college cornerbacks against the run that I ever saw), at least they’re not afraid to knife through a double team or underneath some big clumsy pulling guard.

Back-ups The future is now with the Browns, Chykie and Curtis and a true freshman wunderkind named Aaron Williams. Because of injuries and spread offenses, these guys all got a lot of playing time early in the season, and gave us some of the best defensive plays of the year. Who can forget Curtis Brown leaping to break up a "go get it" pass from Zac Robinson to Dez Bryant of Oklahoma State. Who can forget Chykie Brown running up the sideline stride for stride, mano a mano with Jeremy Maclin of Missouri. Aaron Williams had FOUR blocked kicks, not including the one he blocked against Oklahoma that was called back for roughing (my A!!), and returned an interception for a touchdown.

Grade C+ (If it isn’t obvious already, I think Beasley is Texas’ worst defensive player and he drags an otherwise B-level group down with him).

Safeties – This group of all true or redshirt freshmen, led by starters Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon, has been scrutinized more than a couple’s first baby. Oh look, his first blown coverage! (Thomas against Florida Atlantic) Oh look, his first interception! (Thomas against OU). Oh look, his first blitz! (Gideon against Missouri). Mack must have regurgitated the pre-game dinner (if he ate at all) for every game leading up to Oklahoma, pinching himself to remember that, yes, we’re STARTING TWO FRESHMEN AT SAFETY. And one of them, the true freshman, IS CALLING THE PLAYS!! Even the casual fan knew about "the safeties" and followed their every burp and crawl. And then came the Tech game, where on the final two plays of the game, some little evil devil whispered in the ear of first Gideon (drop that interception, don’t you know you’re just a freshman!) and then Thomas (let go of that jersey, dude, you’re out of bounds and you’re just a freshman). As Texas fandom despaired, along came the Kansas game, where Gideon and Thomas formed a double-headed hammer, whacking on the Jayhawk receivers and tight ends, knocking Kerry Meier and Jake Sharp out of the game (yes I’m still impressed by that).

So if we forget all the baby babble and realize that, like all babies, our safeties after 12 games are all grown up now, the safety position has to be considered a success. Are they Eric Berry of Tennessee? Heck no! Are they as good as anyone could be in their situation? Heck yeah! I’m impressed that Gideon has gotten everyone lined up since the first game. I’m impressed that they make opposing defenses limit their throws over the middle. I’m impressed that, since the Oklahoma State game, they take good tackling angles (OK Michael Crabtree, yes that one bad one by Thomas). I’m impressed that, despite giving up big plays here and there, many of those were created by clever screens or by blown coverages and overrun plays by linebackers. I saw no uncontested post patterns, no ankle-breaking flops in front of juking midgets. I saw few short angles that allowed receivers to outrun double teams. So, dare I say it, I’m impressed!

That’s not to say that the safeties wouldn’t benefit from tip drills and former Ohio State and Minnesota Viking great Cris Carter’s video method on learning to catch a football. Three interceptions by the safeties in 12 games is not going to cut it. "Hands of Stone," was branded by the retired welter/middleweight Roberto Duran, and has no place on the football field. The safeties also need to learn how to chickenfight with and tackle low on big tight ends like Gresham and Pettigrew.

Against the Buckeyes, the Horns just need MOS, more of same. The Buckeye receivers are fast, but not faster than Jeremy Maclin or Manny Johnson. They’re definitely not tougher than Crabtree, and not as good an athlete as Dez Bryant. The Horns’ group kept the lid on all these characters (with the exception of one play) and I don’t see Robiskie and Hartline as nightmares waiting to happen. They will have to "man up" against Beanie, but the fans have seen significant man-evidence the last 3 weeks to feel confident about that.

Backups: Back in the summer, everyone wondered which of the four safeties, Thomas, Gideon, Ben Wells, or Christian Scott would start. So it’s not surprising that there is not a lot of drop-off in talent to Wells and Scott. What has been surprising is that Scott made such an impact when he came in for the concussed (call it what you want, coaches) Gideon against Kansas, it was like a medieval carpenter discovering the nail gun. With the debacle of the Pirates of the Plains fresh in everyone’s minds, the clamor for Scott to start issued forthwith. When asked why Scott hadn’t played more, Muschamp offered a one-word answer, "Preparation." Going deeper into the lineup, Nolan Brewster has played better in mop-up duty over the season, as he was lost in the first four games.

Grade B+ (Given where they started, "the safeties" performed better than anyone could have expected, even with ‘the drop" and "the jersey tackle")

Conclusions Given the vanguard of top offensive teams the Horns have played this year, being in the top 25 in scoring defense is nothing short of a miracle. This is a very good defense, that, with some coach cojones to demote Beasley and a subliminal sleeping tape on how to play linebacker for Norton, should be one of the top defenses in the country in 2009. Right now, it’s a defense no one wants to play, as PB predicted in the pre-season. As a "baby," Will Muschamp has schooled it through crawling, walking, running, training wheels, bicycles, to adolescents on motorcycles. A beatdown of Ohio State would provide its official driver’s license for 2009.

Poll

Obviously, Brian Orakpo is defensive MVP for 2008. Who will be the defensive MVP for 2009?

Sergio Kindle

151 votes

Lamarr Houston

11 votes

Roddrick Muckelroy

21 votes

Earl Thomas

34 votes

Blake Gideon

28 votes

245 votes | Poll has closed

2008 Horns - a regular season report card Part 1

burnt in ny — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 21:01:05 -0000

Now that the toxic dust generated by the BS (cough) BCS controversies of OU and then Florida have receded into the recesses of our poisoned brain fissures, I thought it worth writing a brief (well I guess it's not so brief) position-by-position summary of the Horns through the regular season and improvements/prospects fans might expect for the upcoming Fiesta bowl. And let me say, I expect the Horns to be motivated for the Buckeyes from the ubiquitous chips that will dot the shoulders of the players until the last opponent has been trodden into the ground come January 2010. But, there are some improvements needed if Texas is to position itself for a 2009 run by beating the Buckeyes. To that end, let’s dive in.

Quarterback – Colt McCoy. What more needs to be said that hasn’t been. One of the gamest players ever to suit up in the burnt orange, McCoy will set the NCAA FBS record for passing accuracy by more than 4% (That’s like setting the record for the 100 m dash by more than 0.2 seconds, simply astonishing). His career records are nearly up to those of that VY demi-god’s, but through his own gutsy playmaking style in which brilliant plays still seem somehow unexpected. He certainly deserves the Heisman as an MVP type player (I’m reminded of Larry Bird).

All that said, McCoy needs to convince defenses that he can burn them with the deep ball if he wants to take the team to the next level. Other than in the second half of the Texas Tech game, when there was little choice, and against A&M, when it was easy, Colt simply hasn’t been excellent on deep posts or go routes and frankly hasn’t tried very much. The threat of a successful deep pass would be the best tonic to teams that currently stack their safeties to stop the run, and may be essential in getting an aggressive and talented Ohio State secondary to back off.

Backup: John Chiles is still an enigma. Some of his best plays this year were passes, such as down the seam to James Kirkendoll against Florida Atlantic and a beautiful, in stride toss to Dan Buckner against Missouri. But, for a QB whose strength is supposedly running and speed, we fans have seen precious little. I’m sure there’s a tomato or few out there with my name on it for saying so, but I somehow have a feeling that with some actual in-charge game experience and more reps, Chiles would actually be a good QB. His passing footwork and pocket presence have improved immeasurably since the summer, and as much as fans might moan and groan if McCoy were hurt, I think the team could still score enough to win most games with Chiles in the game. Take a look at his collective stat line, arguably against second-teamers during mop-up duty: 11-13 for 231 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions (but two fumbles). That’s a far cry from his 1-for 8 in 2007 and 1 for 6 in the spring game.

Grade: A

Running Back – PB has likened the Horns’ running attack to Cerberus, the mythical three headed dog, reflecting the co-equal status of Fozzy Whittaker, Vondrell McGee, and Chris Ogbonnaya, but I think the Horns actually have a different beast altogether that has sprouted a fourth head, Cody Johnson. Let’s call it Svantevit, four-headed god of war and divination in Slavic mythology. Fans have probably rightfully moaned and groaned about the Texas running game in all but a couple of games, but the collective season effort for Svantevit is 347 carries for 1649 yards, an average of 4.75 yards per carry, with 20 touchdowns and only one lost fumble between them. If a single back had produced that for the Horns, we’d be singing an old home gospel, although the ypc could stand to be higher.

The frustration has been related more to the inconsistency among the heads, with different heads doing the talking each week. First it was Vondrell, then Fozzy, then nobody, then Ogbonnaya for Colorado through Missouri, then Vondrell for Oklahoma State. Fozzy breathed life into the Tech game in the second half and did well against Baylor, but then disappeared into negative yardage land until his final carry against Kansas. All the heads got into the conversation against the Aggies. Cody Johnson is as close to money as it gets in short yardage situations, but, when asked, also has run well out of the spread for a fullback.

As far as the Fiesta Bowl goes, it would be nice to finally see Whittaker’s head eat the others, i.e., emerge out of the pack. He’s proven he can pick up the blitz at least as well as McGee (in fact it was McGee who failed to see and pick up a corner blitz against A&M that led to McCoy taking his biggest hit in that game) and when he catches a flair or screen, the entire stadium holds its collective breath. Maybe the reps he gets preparing for Ohio State will get him better in sync with the offensive line.

Backups: Despite being way down the depth chart here, a tantalizing fifth bud to our polycephalous running back monster was revealed in the Kansas game in the form of Jeremy Hills. He has a good combination of toughness and quickness, but we really don’t know how he would fare against first-team defenses.

Grade: B.

Fullback – The only time the 2008 Horns really use a fullback is in the jumbo package with Roy Miller as the fullback and Pete Johnson providing his own blocking. The jumbo package might be the number one red zone rushing formation in the country.

We all hope to see this package a lot in the Ohio State game!

Grade: A.

Tight End– I can’t recall seeing a team that has been more miserably represented at TE. Irby’s knee injury against Rice reverberated around the world (literally – I was in Tanzania when I heard), leaving the Horns with a bunch of stiffs. Texas has still used a lot of TE formations, but I’ve struggled to see how that has benefited the Horns. Some blocking schemes have left our number 1 remaining option, if you can call it that, Greg Smith trying to block a talented DE or LB pass rusher, and it’s nearly gotten McCoy killed. Smith’s missed block against Tech’s Dixon led to Colt nearly receiving a new mouth that required stitches and antibiotics.

Against Ohio State, we hope to NOT see much of the TE.

Backups: It’s hard to have a backup TE when you don’t even have one to begin with.

Grade F+ (I suppose there have been a few good blocks here and there).

Outside Wide Receiver – I can’t say enough about how much Quan Cosby means to this team. His leadership, consistent play, exquisite body control, and the best hands in America (and it’s not even close) allowed Colt to throw balls in tight spaces and move the chains and for the young receivers to gain confidence and skill at reading defenses. That said, Quan has seldom beat anybody deep, and this has allowed safeties and linebackers to guess and try to jump pass routes. On the other side of the ball, Malcolm Williams made some of the most exciting plays of the year (up and over all comers against Missouri, a force of nature against Tech) and some of the most excruciating (dropped balls against Oklahoma State). His emergence against Tech suggested he might have turned the corner, but fans have seen little since that game. Is Malcolm really the defensive nightmare we’re hoping for? Or is he still trying to get the game to “slow down?” For now he hasn’t been enough of a threat to ease the double teams on Cosby. Although the emphasis for WR is mostly on the passing game, I think both receivers have been good to excellent at blocking downfield on running plays. For example, Cosby had a key block that sprang Ogbonnaya’s 65 yard run against Oklahoma and pulled the wheels off the Sooner wagons, and Williams had several key blocks against Missouri, Baylor and Kansas.

For the Ohio State game, Williams needs to step up and force the safeties to roll to outside help, thus freeing up the hot routes and matchups with LB’s for the slot receivers. A few early catches or even open breaks deep down the field could act as a powerful decongestant for the passing game.

Backup: Dan Buckner has also showed flashes both receiving and blocking and is probably a season away from being unstoppable in the red zone.

Grade: B+

Slot Wide Receiver– The play of Jordan Shipley and Brandon Collins has been the key to how special Texas’ offense has been. The position has done most of the compensating for the implosion of the TE position and has provided most of the “hot reads” against defenses’ incessant blitzing of the Horns. The chemistry between Shipley and McCoy has been documented ad nauseum. However, the play of Brandon Collins, who led the Horns in receiving yardage against A&M and has been making secondaries pay ever since the Oklahoma State game (with the notable exception of the Tech game), should be celebrated much more than it has. It’s my sense that Collins and Colt are approaching what Colt has with Shipley and Cosby, and that can only mean scary things for opposing defenses.

Texas’ slot receivers are the great mismatch against the Ohio State defense, as the Buckeyes don’t really have the speed at DT or outside LB to cover 4 WRs or to stop Colt from running all day if they switch to a 4-2-5. I look for Collins and Shipley to have big days in the Fiesta Bowl.

Backup: James Kirkendoll has simply been outstanding. He has shown the potential to be a receiving machine, as he caught passes on three straight plays against Kansas before Ogbonnaya finished the drive with an authoritative TD run. He may be the smartest of the young receivers and provides strong depth.

Grade: A+

Offensive Line- As Greg Davis predicted in the pre-season, Texas has a good offensive line. But let’s be clear, Texas does NOT have a GREAT offensive line. Compared to Tech and OU, Texas has suffered twice the rate of sacks, and half of Texas’ turnovers (and even more almost turnovers) are the result of pressure in the pocket. So what’s up? The first thing is that, as in 2007, the OL is a walking orthopedic ward. Adam Ulatoski is All-Big 12 and was the top-graded OL for the Horns in virtually every game. So what’s not to like? Early in the season Ulatoski was a rock, but in the practice before the Tech game, he reinjured his left elbow (the same dislocated elbow that kept him out of 3 games last year). A left tackle’s left arm might be the most valuable appendage in football after the QB’s arm because it is the one thing standing between a fast outside rusher and the QB. Since his re-injury, Ulatoski has been a shell of himself, and didn’t play particularly well against the Raiders or Aggies. Injuries also removed center Chris Hall, the blocking assignment-caller for the line and second-team All-Big 12 player.

The second issue is the play at left guard and right tackle, which is handled, respectively, by Charlie Tanner/Michael Huey and Kyle Hix. These are the least experienced OL starters, and collectively they have responded poorly all season to complicated blitz schemes. LG in particular has been weak in pass protection all season, and it is the middle pass rush from that side that has flushed Colt from the pocket more often than not. A BONer commented earlier in the year that Colt always seems to scramble to the right. Well, that’s where you go when some DT or blitzing LB is just behind your left shoulder on too many plays. Kyle Hix was overwhelmed in some games in the middle of the schedule (Oklahoma State, Tech) but has played somewhat better lately.

While pass-blocking has been good to decent for the entire season, run-blocking is a different story. Many expert watchers on BON and Barking Carnival have commented on UT’s dysfunction, so I won’t elaborate here. However, my sense is that the problem is mostly one of timing. The Svantevit monster at RB makes it difficult for the OL to know exactly how long to sustain blocks, since each back takes a different amount of time to get to the hole(s). I’ve seen backs get to the hole ahead of the linemen on the great Texas counter play or linemen leave their block too soon. I’ve also seen some of the most beautiful run-blocking in my over 30 years of watching the game – the blocking on Chris O.’s 65 yard run against the Land Thieves was a symphony. Vondrell McGee had a 24 yard run against Oklahoma State that was equally well-blocked.

So, the potential is there, and this is one area that might most benefit from the weeks leading up to the Fiesta Bowl. First get Ulatoski and Hall healthy, then get Fozzy as the number one back, and then get the blocking-running coordination to flow like a waterfall. tOSU’s biggest weakness on defense is their defensive line, and a threatening running game will be the best way to exploit that. I haven’t seen the run set up a play-action pass more than a handful of times this year (I know, I know, GD likes to set up the run with the pass, but sometimes you need it to go the other way). A big play or two off the run fake could blow the game wide open, and it starts with a maestro-like performance from the OL.

And one more thing. This whole music analogy makes me pull up short and realize that the entire line seems to lack confidence and meanness. Their body language is one of worrying about what to do rather than how to make the guy in front of them look like outdoor carpet. If zone blocking turns your linemen into pansies, GD, then maybe it’s time to re-think the whole strategy. I don’t think that has to be true, but the OL needs to get a lot more confident.

Backup: David Snow, as a true freshman stepping in to call the blocking assignments and play shotgun center or guard has been nothing short of outstanding. He might even be better at center than Chris Hall, and he is certainly more dominating. However, I think the play of the whole line is better with Hall than without. But mark it down, an injury-free Snow will be an All-American before he’s through.

Grade: B

That silver lining thing...

burnt in ny — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 04:33:12 -0000

It is painful to write at this moment, after watching 6 dropped passes and two dropped interceptions, Deon Beasley playing like my five year-old, the entire Texas offensive line crying for mommy, and GD/McCoy showing the shivers until the third quarter to take the ball up top over some incredibly outmanned cornerbacks, we learned five things about this Longhorns team that bode well for this year and next.

1.Malcolm Williams is the TRUTH (and on special teams as well).

2. Sergio Kindle is the TRUTH squared - he single-handedly wreaked enough havoc on defense to keep the Horns in the game. He got the shell-shocked offense on the board by causing Michael Crabtree to fumble. He sacked Graham Harrell in the red zone to lead to a field goal. He caused Harrell to pass high on several open routes, and those incompletions led to field goals instead of touchdowns

3. Texas still has incredible heart, and the biggest one lies in the chest of Jordan Shipley, who once again delivered CPR to the Horns with his punt return for a touchdown in the third quarter.

4. The Horns were in position to win the game despite playing the entire game without Quan Cosby (ribs), more than a quarter without Brian Orakpo, who I'm guessing is out for the season with another wrecked knee, and also Roy Miller for a time. Houston and Melton, in particular, stepped up their games on the DL, and Williams stepped up as a WR.

5. Fozzy Whittaker exists, and makes the offense run better, and Colt McCoy will not get killed when he's in the game.

As much as the pain as there is of being one play away from victory, there is this to think about. Yes, the Horns need help, but...

It will be at least Wednesday before the Red Raiders remember there's a game against Oklahoma State on Saturday. Tech may not be ready for the punch in the mouth that is the Cowboys. For sure, the Riaders won't have the adrenaline they had for this game

Tech still has to go to Norman.

Oklahoma still has to go to Stillwater

If all those situations result in Tech losses and a Sooner loss, Texas is still Big 12 champion.

I don't see Penn State losing, and if Florida beats Alabama in the SEC title game, Texas will not be ranked ahead of them. But the Horns would still win a conference championship, and that would be far and above most expectations for this season.

In whom do we trust?

burnt in ny — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:57:36 -0000

Trust is what makes Texas special; trust is what makes them vulnerable. Trust in Colt McCoy allows Greg Davis to treat the passing game like the running game - whn Colt completes 80% of his throws and can scramble for first downs on other passing plays that break down, how can you not trust it. Trust in Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley allow Colt to release throws before either receiver has made their break and know that the ball will be caught. This quadrangle of trust is leading to an offense of historic proportions, an 8-0 record, and dreams well beyond expectations for this season.

At the same time, this intense trust is beginning to make the Horns' offense to become simplified. When every pass goes to Shipley or Cosby, and every successful run is the same trap play to the left, defenses gradually begin to re-position to get better angles on the blockers or jump the passing routes. The offense gets tougher, which makes the Horns even more reliant on plays and players they trust.

So the question for the Horns is, how do they build trust in new plays and players while inside the crucible of an undefeated potential Big 12 title and national championship season?

A lack of trust in the young receivers and their ability to make plays, particularly down the field may eventually be the downfall of this year's Horns. I was struck, in re-watching the OSU game, how infrequently Colt even looked deep or to receivers other than Cosby or Shipley. He had time on several play-action passes to look deep, but instead threw to Cosby or Shipley right away on intermediate routes against the zone. It is true that he threw to Kirkendoll on a slant and to Collins on a deep out, but 2 of McCoy's incomplete passes were drops made by Kirkendoll and Williams. Even the announcers were joking after Williams drop by saying, "No wonder he throws just to Cosby or Shipley."

A case in point: in the first half, OSU sent a full-scale (3-4 people) blitz 3 times. Result: an incomplete pass, TD to Shipley on the fade route to the left, and the brilliant TD catch by Cosby. In the second half, the full-scale blitz yielded interception called back by the roughing the quarterback call, an interception, and the 20 yard pass to Shipley to the 4 on the Horns' last drive. Why the change in fortunes? The two bad passes resulted because of Colt throwing off his back foot, but also because the OSU DB's were playing the route much tougher because they knew where it was going to go.

Without being at the game, it's impossible to know whether other receivers were open, but one could just see the coverage on Cosby and Shipley getting tighter as the game progressed. One could almost feel the collective play-calling sphincters of Greg Davis and Mack Brown getting tighter as the game got tighter.

Trust issues are also infecting the running game. Greg Davis and Mack Brown trust Chris Ogbonnaya to make the right reads, pass block, and make the catch when thrown the ball. Despite this well-founded trust, the running game lacks sorely needed explosiveness potentially provided by Fozzy Whittaker. If Fozzy is not playing when he is supposedly 100% healthy, it must be because of a lack of trust. And perhaps it's true that Fozzy is not as effective a blocker as Ogbonnaya or McGee. But Fozzy brings a threat to the table that neither Ogbonnaya or McGee can - the threat to go the distance.

That threat has incalculable value. I watched the OSU LB's carefully on running and passing plays. LB's who didn't blitz just sat on their heels, read the play and charged the gap. They had that luxury with Ogbonnaya because he's not straight up fast or shifty enough to make them miss, unlike last year, when Jamaal Charles was so fast, he would make it through the gap before the LB could get there. With Fozzy in the game, the LB's would have to pick their gap faster to avoid that happening, which would then allow Fozzy to pick his hole. A faster reaction from the LB's would also open up more play-action passes on play fakes.

We have read ad nauseum about Mack's (and by proxy Greg Davis') conservatism, and as the stakes get higher with each game, one can feel the dependence on certainty from the offense growing. There are good reasons for going with what coaches and players "know" will work, but any football coach knows that eventually the defense will also "know" what's coming, and a team needs alternative players, pass routes, protection schemes, and maybe even a couple of trick plays to keep the defense off balance and not zoned in on Cosby, Shipley, and McCoy. Fundamentally, the coaches need to trust the young, talented, but unproven players to make plays and to make them when the game is on the line.

Along with that need to diversify as a team, the young players, and most especially Malcolm Williams and Fozzy Whittaker, need to step up and break out as playmakers as fans are all confident that they can.

As the Texas Tech rumble on the High Plains approaches, the Horns appear to need a healthy dose of invigoration, with new wrinkles, playmakers, and attitudes to take this team to the next level. Such freshness may be even more critical should the Horns pull off the incredible feat of beating Tech in Lubbock, when the whole team breatrhes a collective sigh, adrenaline levels drop, and a feisty Baylor, Kansas or aTm can gameplan their way inot a game they otherwise have no business being in.

The Men of Texas

burnt in ny — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:20:07 -0000

No, this isn't a link to an as yet undiscovered 2009 calendar for our female readers. It is a call to our defensive backs that, if the Horns are to hang on to the precious #1 ranking, they are ALL going to have to step up and be men.

Why the DB's in particular?

Because of how Oklahoma State runs their offense.

I broke down the OSU-Missouri game tape to get an idea about the X's and O's involved in slowing down the Cowpokes (details after the jump). Bottom line: OSU likes to find the single coverage matchups and throw the ball high so that their tall, athletic receivers can outjump or shield off the DB's and thus outplay them for the ball. A large fraction of OSU's touchdown passes in the red zone and passes for first downs on third and long are of this nature. If the Horns want to stop the Cowboys, they are going to have toi find a way to go up and play the ball. That means you Deon Beasley. And you too, Ryan Palmer and Earl Thomas. If there is a weakness in the Texas secondary right now, it's playing the ball effectively in the air, and if the DB's don't step up and work on finding the ball in the air and being absolutely determined to get it, the game will be a shootout for sure.

OSU likes to run, as we've all read. They like to run so much that they are in 1 or 2 TE formations with one RB (11 or 21 personnel for you jargonmeisters) more than half the time on second and third downs even with more than 5 yards to go. Even with 2 TE, two WR's are often split wide on the same side of the field, which puts 3 potential receivers in pattern in a small area of the field, which can create confusion and most importantly, single coverage on one of the two WR's. Mike Gundy and his offensive coordinator do a great job of making sure that the receiver getting single coverage is Dez Bryant.

The reliance on TE dominated formations means Texas will have to have a 4-3 defense on the field most of the time to control the run. The 4-2-5 that the Horns used so successfully in the second half against OU and nearly all game against Missouri is unlikely to be the most effective defense against OSU. A 4-3 defense puts 3 DB's on 3 WR's plus a safety to help the LB covering the TE. Because of the threat of the run and the need for the LB's to read run first and then drop into coverage, one of the OSU wide receivers is single covered on almost every play.

What all this means is that Zac Robinson can just trhrow the ball up and let the receivers outplay the usually smaller DB's for the ball.

What the Horns must do.

Jam the OSU receivers to buy more time for the pass rush to disrupt throws. This could be tough on Dez Bryant because he often lines up back from the line of scrimmage and is too quick and too strong to jam easily. However, it's a strategy that might take the rail-thin Davis (6-5, 185) out of the equation and free up a saftety to help over the top of Bryant

The DB's must look for the ball - just being in front of the receiver won't stop Robinson from making the throw. They have to want the ball. They have to think of the victory being at stake on every throw, because it just might be.

Dare we compare 2008 with 2005?

burnt in ny — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 13:30:06 -0000

Now that the Horns have held onto the #1 ranking for one full week, I thought I might open the distasteful but titillating comparison of the 2005 MNC team and this 2008 Longhorn team. Many view the 2005 team as an inevitable force of nature with VY as the eye of the hurricane. Nervous tentative comments about this years team, driven by scars from meltdowns in 2006 and 2007, would have us believe that the 2008 Horns are getting by on moxie, wiliness, and smoke and mirrors. Others would argue that this is silly because we haven't seen what the 2008 team can do for a whole season. I thought the question worth entertaining because I sense the fans could have a little more confidence in this 2008 team.

I'm here to argue that the play of the 2008 team is every bit a force of nature as that of 2005, only different. If the 2005 team was a hurricane, the 2008 team is an army of loggers with chainsaws and unlimited fuel. The teams, or "trees," on the schedule will be chopped down with ruthless efficiency rather than speed and fury. As college football fans, we are used to seeing teams win through explosive plays and dominant defenses; other methods of success are suspect. But this Horns team is as capable of chewing through teams as a top NFL offense.

In some ways, 2008 may be more likely to be our year than 2009 because the transcendant play of Brian Orakpo, who may be as dominant at DE as VY was at QB, will not be in play in 2009. That doesn't mean 2009 won't be a MNC year, it just means that this 2008 team, while young in many areas, has terrific talent that is capable of winning against all comers.

The 2005 team was a cult of VY's personality (not that that's bad, just different) that died when he left, particularly on defense. The 2008 Horns rely on many more players and in that sense can win in many more ways. If the outcome seems in doubt in more games than in 2005, I think the quality of opposing teams is much better this year. VY was such a dominant player that defenses had to sacrifice deep safeties and LB drops to keep him in check, which opened up the middle for David Thomas and Billy Pittman and allowed Vince to pass effectively with easy throws over the middle. The 2008 team is a cerebral team with high football IQ players scattered throughout the roster (Ulatoski, Hall, McCoy, Ogbonnaya, Shipley, Cosby, Miller, Orakpo, Muckelroy, Gideon), and the mental capabilities of this team are worth including in any consideration of talent.

There were numerous future NFL stars starting on the 2005 roster, but such future stars are on the 2008 roster as well, but they are less obvious because we lack the 20/20 hindsight. Barring injury, Ulatoski, Hix, Hall, Cosby, Shipley, Williams, McCoy,and Cody Johnson will all make NFL rosters. On defense, Orakpo will be a top 10 draft choice, and Kindle will follow a year later. Gideon, Thomas, Chykie Brown, and Muckelroy will all eventually make NFL rosters as well.

Let's break it down by position group

QB - Vince Young, one for the ages vs. Colt McCoy, already the most accurate and prolific passer in UT history and undeniable field leader, Slight EDGE to 2005 and only because VY's accomplishments are proven with a Big 12 title and MNC, which Colt does not yet have.

RB - a young Jamal Charles +Selvin Young+ Ramonce Taylor vs. Cerberus - slight EDGE to 2005, mostly because of Taylor

TE - David Thomas vs. Blaine Irby - EDGE 2005, but mostly because Irby is injured

WR - a green Limas Sweed, Billy Pittman, Nate Jones, a young Quan Cosby vs. senior Cosby, Shipley, Collins, Kirkendoll, and Williams EDGE 2008

OL - Scott, Sendlein, Blalock, Studdard vs. Ulatoski, Tanner, Hall, Dockery, Hix. EVEN, given the way Tanner has been playing. 2005 was a better run-blocking unit, but 2008 is a better pass-blocking group.

DL - EDGE to 2008 with Melton, Houston, and Rak, who anchor arguably the best, and certainly the fastest, D line in the country.

LB - Given that Bobino, as a redshirt freshman, was a star of the 2005 group and has been supplanted by Kindle, Muckelroy, and Norton, BIG EDGE to 2008.

Secondary - No need to dive in here, the 2008 group is just too young - BIG EDGE to 2005

Kicking - Hunter Lawrence has a bigger, more accurate leg than any 2005 kicker, and no kicker has been more money than Ryan Bailey. Punting seems about even. EDGE 2008

Kick returning and blocking - Shipley and Cosby aren't bad, with both having returned kickoffs for touchdowns in the past 9 games, but few Texas returners have been as exciting as Ramonce Taylor. Michael Griffin and Brian Robison from 2005 were masters at blocking kicks. EDGE to 2005.

So that leaves 2005 having better talent than 2008 by one position group, and that was mostly due to the skills of Ramonce Taylor, for which there is no equivalent on the 2008 squad (as much as we might want Chiles to be that guy).

I think we should stop thinking about the 2008 team as college football's version of the '69 Mets, or as overachieving lunch pail types. Believe people - all those recruting classes have yielded talent that is now producing on the field. Let's understand that this is a special team that has the chance to be one of the all-time greats, right up there with 2005.

Poll

Which team do you think had more overall talent?

2005

83 votes

2008

10 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

Reassurance for the Worrying

burnt in ny — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 11:18:12 -0000

For all those pessimistic prognosticators in your favorite media, neighborhood and family, you can take heart that, since 2000, Texas is 10-0 at home, 4-0 on the road vs. ranked Big 12 teams. The problem is on neutral fields (OU and Big 12 championship games) where Texas is only 4-6 (although they are 4-1 since 2005). Message?

Mack Brown knows how to coach this game and the players will be ready.

The problem games for the Horns since 2000 have been the "trap" games against unranked teams (Texas Tech 2002, 2003, A&M 2006, 2007, Kansas State 2006, 2007).

Good news- the only games Texas has left against unranked teams are both at home (Baylor, A&M).

Longhorn on safari...during football season?

burnt in ny — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 14:29:34 -0000

Well I guess you could call it a safari. An unbeatable business opportunity arose this past summer, leading me to spend in Tanzania the 3 weeks of the football season just prior to jailbreak of the Land Thieves. My brother’s reaction might be similar to yours, “Where’s Tanzania at, exactly?” It’s the country just south of Kenya in East Africa and probably the world’s number one safari destination at the moment, featuring Serengeti National Park, Ngorongoro Crater, and Mount Kilimanjaro, the world’s largest mountain and erstwhile planting location for a five foot long Longhorn flag

So the trip, despite its awesome spectacularity (I doubt that’s a real word – MS Word told me so), was, for a football addict like me, something like going off heroin cold turkey must be to a back alley junkie.

First there was the temptation to miss my flight in Detroit while I watched Michigan State avoid starring in Fourth Quarter Meltdown Against Notre Dame II as they pummeled Notre Dame on the line of scrimmage. Second was the feeling of paranoia as I sat in the middle seat of the redeye flight to Amsterdam, sandwiched between two bizarre passengers. On my left was an African who is the only person I’ve ever flown next to with arms long enough to break my ribs as he turned the page of his newspaper. On my right was a 14 year-old boy from a nativity school on his way to Hungary to live for a month, with 15 other squeaky clean youths in the back of the plane who uttered nary an “Oh my God!” in 7 hours. I mean come on, don’t you have real school to get to? Please tell me your mommy’s hiding on the plane somewhere. But… when you get to be as old as I am, even fear of the bizarre cannot keep you from sleep.

Somewhere over the equator, after hopping on a second plane in Amsterdam the next day, the need for news of the Horns began to creep in. The TV on the back of the seat in front of me had a menu that said “Sports.” Might they have the latest ESPN SportsCenter? Niet! (as they would say in Dutch, I think you can figure it out).

After 20 hours of flying, the last nine of which were spent staring at the bleach blonde hair of a Dutch woman the size of Adam Ulatoski (I kid you not!), the visa line, the luggage line, the customs line, and a 45 minute ride in a 15 year-old Land Rover (the African variety) through the slums of that unknown but ever-expanding metropolis called Arusha, which by the way has more Land Rovers than people and dogs combined, I crashed on a bed with a mattress that must have been flown in from Mattress Mac’s reject warehouse just for me.

Upon being awakened at 5:30 am by a loud, Howard Stern obnoxious, quartet of birds, including a hornbill and three roosters (there’s a band name in there somewhere), I slink into breakfast… but the need is still there. How did the Horns do? How do I find out in this wayward corner of the world?

Driving through town some hours later, I see a sign that says, “Uhuru’s Sports Bar.” Halleluyah, I think, thirsty with desperation. I walk in and this chubby little guy comes right up and says, “Hey wazungu!” I’m about to fire back my favorite Texan “Hah’re yew!” but I worry that might be interpreted in Swahili as “hamu,” which means desire, “hara,” which means diarrhea, or “haribu,” which means to destroy. Despite my sentiments toward the latter two on behalf of my Tanzanian chucklehead, I stay focused and find the TV screen. In the depths of my need for Longhorn news, I think I see, what’s that, Fozzy Whittaker juking past an owl and streaking to the end zone and then, what? Just short of the white line he turns and starts running to the sideline, pulling his shirt over his head…what? Belatedly, I realize I’m watching soccer highlights of some unpronounceably named Nigerian player from the English Premier League (I thought that was a beer). Is there a 12-step meeting here in the heart of Africa?

Undaunted and chin up, I later sashay down to the “business centre” of my hotel, intent on scrutinizing the results and statistics of the Owl hunt on the internet. I open the browser and … one blue bar appears on the status line at the bottom of the screen. Sometime after the November elections, another appears. Sometime much later, after my oldest son graduates from high school (he’s now 5!), another bar appears. You get the picture. After a nap, a drink, a curse, and an evil glare, I stand poised, waiting for the Longhorn-Rice score to pop up on the screen and…. Peep! The power goes down (This happens about 15 times a day in Arusha). Were it not for the fact that the computer on which this is all happening is older than I am, I would be scratching this little missive on the walls of some hellhole jail, having been arrested for destruction of property. A shred of reason prevails and I stomp out, replete with the shakes.

Sometime long about high noon the next day, the DT’s set in. I’m on a bus from Arusha to the sweating, diesel-smog-choked expanse of 5 million people called Dar es Salaam to make sure the ol’ boys in the Tanzanian government are happy about the way their forms are filled out and their fees are paid (only US bills printed after the year 2000, thank you very much). Trying to ignore the babbling of a radio talk show in Swahili, I’m staring out over the brushy landscape, the landscape of… West Texas, dreaming of Colt McCoy and musing that this must be the sort of place Tuscola lives in. Or was that dreaming of Tuscola and where Colt McCoy lives? Surreally, I hear country music on the speaker in the bus ceiling, the old Don Williams 1970's croon, “I Believe in Love.” I see a tin roof, and think wow, I can almost see Tuscola from here…I believe in Colt... and… a blare of Swahili pounds down from the speaker. Something about stopping 20 minutes for lunch. What? Yes, that really was Don Williams on the pipe, a favorite CD of the bus attendant’s (yes the buses have “attendants” in Africa who play only the music they like, pass out bottles of Coke and Fanta after 4 hours, hard candy after 7, and luggage after 10, when the trip is over but your body doesn’t really believe it). No, that wasn’t a young Colt running barefoot in the dirt. And no, those aren’t the Davis Mountains in the distance with the jungle on top.

Just when I think I can’t take any more, we arrive in Dar and I’m on another bus to the hotel. This is one of those minibuses that make a minivan look like an aircraft carrier. Why not a taxi, you ask? Let’s put it this way – it’s a business “opportunity” and I don’t work for Donald Trump. In any case, by the second stop, the bus is full (that’s 18 people in a vehicle the size of a Toyota Corolla). On the third stop, 4 more people get in. On the fourth stop, three more. The ticket guy is hanging out the sliding door, holding on by the roof rack as the bus pulls away and a woman the size of Cedric Dockery is, and again I am not kidding, sitting on my lap. Well actually she was squeezed onto the six inches of empty seat between me and the next guy, but she might as well have been sitting on my lap. This must be what it’s like to be Roy Miller facing a triple team.

Sometime after all the feeling is gone from my legs, the bus stops and I emerge from the pile. Entering the hotel, I try to decide if the smell in the lobby is a dead person or just mildew. I notice the newspaper strewn on the coffee table, flipped open to a page with a picture of four Nigerian guerillas with mud-covered faces a lot like those of the pygmies in the movie Congo, kneeling in a boat, automatic rifles at the ready. One of them is wearing a burnt orange do-rag with TEXAS emblazoned in white on the forehead (again, really, I’m not kidding!). Ack! Blake Gideon has turned back into a real freshman and they’ve reinstated Robert Joseph, past Texas recruit at safety and convicted felon! Panic sets in. If rehab is like this, no wonder anyone from Hollywood ever stays for the whole course.

A half-hour later, hands trembling, lip half bitten-through, I tap the mouse to open the Texas-Rice score. Ahhhhh, a 52-10 FIX. But wait, Blaine Irby, UT’s only real tight end, out for the season? A-a-a-h-h-h-h. But this time, there’s no Swahili waking me up. This ain’t no daydream , son; welcome back to the real world.

You know what? Just say no. No to drugs for sure. But no to the drug that is the Texas Longhorns 2008 (or any year other than 2005, for that matter). As for me, cold turkey didn’t do any good. A goat herd the size of Memorial stadium blocked the road for the big bus back from Dar es Salaam yesterday for five minutes. Those goats started to look a lot like sooey pigs. So today, I snuck onto the internet between power surges, and man, that was some uncut 52-10 stuff, since, as Colt would have it, the Razorbacks looked like the goat that the T rex ate in Jurassic Park.

But still the Big 12 looms...That bus that’s losing the game of chicken with our bus but winning the contest to see which of the two has the louder horn reminds me of Colt scrambling in the pocket in the 4 wide WR offense (that the Horns have to run because they have no TE) after Malcolm Williams gets jammed at the line. And, for the next two weeks, I won’t be anywhere near the internet, much less Uhuru’s Sports Bar and the object of my “hamu,” the television. So wish me luck… I may need a victory over the wagon drivers from Norman the day after I get back to ever become whole again.

"State of the Horns" from quotable quotes

burnt in ny — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:04:10 -0000

Now that the results practice has slipped out of public eyes, into the ears of selected sportswriters and onto the mouths of coaches and selected, usually senior, players, the dedicated fan longs to know how things are proceeding. Entering this season, major questions existed about the maturation of the younger receivers and the offensive line, about who would play defensive tackle, and who would rise among the many young players in the secondary and at other positions.

The entirety of Burnt Orange Nation is fed on the trickle of bleached and sanitized comments from coaches and players and fuzzy video clips of apparently random plays from practices and scrimmages posted on MB-TF as evidence of the dawning brilliance of the Texas Longhorns, version 2008.0 . Interpreting comments to the press and these videos is tricky, especially in Mack Brown Nation, where usually there is some uselessly positive babble about working hard, learning, being physical, etc. trolled out when any player is discussed. However, human nature is what it is, and the excitement of coaches and players can sometimes not be contained, while silence about other players is probably deafening.

I offer the following cryptic, admittedly mal-informed "State of the Horns" as interpreted from three forms of reliable data: (1) repeated mentions of players and their performance from multiple players and coaches on different days, (2) changes in the tone and adjectives used to describe players as the first game approaches, unusually detailed descriptions of players and/or situations, and (3) the general absence of specific comments about certain players for which we might expect considerable comments. Below I offer my nickels' worth on the major emergent themes from the first two weeks of fall practice.

Who will be the #3 and #4 receivers, and does that leave Texas with some much-needed speed at the WR position?

The answer part A: Malcolm Williams is the #3 receiver and is being mixed and matched with Quan Cosby on the outside of 3 wide receiver formations because he is tough to jam at the line of scrimmage and has deep speed.

The evidence:

Colt McCoy Aug 6:

I like throwing the ball deep to Malcolm (Williams). He does a good job of not letting the defense put their hands on him. He's big and strong and gets off the line.

Jordan Shipley Aug 6:

Malcolm, he's a big guy obviously that can run. He's really got unique speed for his size and that's going to help him a lot.

Bobby Kennedy, receivers coach Aug 9:

Malcolm Williams has probably been the most consistent guy right now.

Greg Davis Aug 12:

I'm really pleased with Malcolm Williams; he's having a heck of a camp. It goes without saying that Quan (Cosby) and Jordan (Shipley) are doing well, but Malcolm is really doing well…. We're working both… at that split end position, That guy, typically for us, has been a bigger body guy, a Roy Williams, a Limas Sweed, and that's where Malcolm kind of fits into the picture.

The answer, part B: James Kirkendoll is #4 because he can play any of the WR positions and is a heady player who is likely to be successful in the slot receiver position.

The evidence:

Greg Davis Aug 5:

James Kirkendoll is a guy that is going to be exactly where he's supposed to be every play.

Greg Davis, Aug 12:

James Kirkendoll has been really consistent…. a guy that can play all three spots, an extremely bright guy.

Overall, Williams and Kirkendoll form the basis for 4 wide receiver sets that may become more important if the TEs dod not develop as hoped. Colt is prepared to play with both - see his above quaote about Williams and the fact that he threw a touchdown pass to Kirkendoll in the scrimmage.

Colt McCoy Aug13:

…..there's something about coming into the stadium, you can kind of tell who wants it and who doesn't. I thought Malcolm (Williams) played well today, I thought James (Kirkendoll) played well.

Has Sergio Kindle become a superstar?

The answer: He looks to be THE ANSWER

The evidence: Note the change in tone used by the coaches over time and the final comment by Rashad Bobino

Mack Brown Aug 8:

We're hoping it is (his time). He's in great shape, he's done everything right, he's worked really, really hard, .... He got hurt early in the bowl game and missed all of spring practice, so hasn't hit anybody in a long time. It'll be interesting to see if he continues to grow on the practice field like he looked in shorts.

Will Muschamp Aug 11:

He's got initial quickness, he's got a good get-off, he's a very strong upper body guy so he can power the tackles, and he's got pass rush ability. He's got God-given pass rush ability, so you've got to utilize his talents and put him in a situation where he can be successful and that's one thing he does very well. He's a good football player and we're looking forward to him playing this fall.

Greg Davis, Aug 12: (in the middle of a conversation about the offense)

Will (Muschamp) has done a great job of mixing packages and getting Sergio on the field, dropping him and rushing him. He's just such a physical presence.... We've got to be able to slide protection to him to get somebody else on him. We've got to be able to chip him coming out of the backfield if we've got a tackle or a tight end on him. It creates a situation where you need to know where he is (italics added).

Rashad Bobino, Aug 13: (after the first scrimmage)

Sergio looked great coming off the edge, playing (strongside) linebacker. He looks really good…..There were a lot of sacks out there.

The Horns haven't had a linebacker the offense had to account for on every play since Derrick Johnson.

Which largely unheralded player has come out of nowhere to potential stardom?

The answer: Cody Johnson looks to be a lean, mean fireplug who can play fullback or a single back, and can catch the ball as well. One can almost see the saliva dripping from Greg Davis' mouth...

The evidence:

Mack Brown, Aug 8:

He's about 256 (pounds) and looks really good. I thought he might be 235. He's really worked and gotten his body fat down and is in great shape, and he's just really big. He's very physical and a good runner.

Greg Davis, Aug 12:

Cody Johnson is having a really good camp. We're working him at fullback in our two-back sets, and we're working him some at tailback in our one back set just to create more depth. He brings something that the other ones don't, especially into the game when you've got the defense tired. He's a big body and he rolls up in there and you don't think he makes anything, and all of a sudden the pile has been moved. We're working him at both spots.

Is the offensive line mature and good enough for success this season?

The answer: YES. Did I say YES? YES! I can't recall, in 3 years of reading Greg Davis' comments, that he has ever been so definitively positive about anything except VY. That's good company. Note also the difference in tone between Greg Davis' comments on August 1 and August 12.

Greg Davis Aug 1:

We're going to have a good line. We'll start some young guys, but most of the young guys have played, and that's always encouraging…. There aren't a tremendous number of snaps other than (Cedric Dockery) and (Adam Ulatoski), but there are some talented young guys.

Mac McWhorter, offensive line coach Aug 9:

We probably have the most depth we've had since I've been here. The experience level is a whole other factor. I've got one senior, and that's Cedric Dockery and three juniors. They haven't played as much as a lot of lines have, but I've got really good depth.

Michael Huey’s got a really good tenacity level. Chris Hall is amazing to me. You talk to Chris Hall and he's a choirboy. He's a great Christian young man. You put him on that field, and all he does is block people and get after them. It doesn't feel outwardly as nasty, but he's got a great tenacity level.

Greg Davis Aug 12:

This line is going to be really good (italics added). Cedric (Dockery) is the only senior in the bunch and so there's still a lot of youth and they're learning each other's chemistry but it's going to be really good.

And now to the notable absences of comments -

Curtis and Chykie Brown, two young cornerbacks, have not been mentioned by name very much by anyone. Look for Ryan Palmer to keep his job and Deon Beasley to be the star.

Not one word has been uttered about kickers. Ryan Bailey, we know. The punter? Who? Look for punting to be a continued area of weakness in 2008.

Reading the Tea Leaves

burnt in ny — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 17:19:07 -0000

With unbridled enthusiasm for football like the foam in a boiling pot, Horns fans are salivating for the season. The murmur of "Texas Fight" in our subconscious begins to leak into our unguarded moments. The faith that comes with a new year is deep, as all the "athletes-in-waiting" that were supposedly suppressed by the past favoritism for experienced but presumably less talented players are now taking the field. As fans, WE BELIEVE this year will be different. Or will it? Should we believe, or are we all falling victim to the same unbridled coachspeak, especially the Mack Brown kind, that always focuses on the positive, however meager. We have awesome and dedicated reporting eyewitnesses from practice (Rollo Tomasi, HornBrain, texasfan05) that raise our hopes. What can we really get from watching a public practice?

I think that, as with everything in life, success as a pre-season fan comes from two strategies. One is the approach I take while searching for my wife's anniversary gift each year - I don't have a clue, but wonderful things will present themselves. For a Horns fan, this emerges as the following thoughts: I know nothing. More than half the players are new, and I don't know what they are going to do. We have two new major coaches that will govern what plays, formations, and players we will see. Who knows what they will come up with. I am blissfully unaware and non-analyzing. I'll just cheer on the team when they run out on the field.

While there may be fans like this who read this site, I'm guessing they've gone back to work, are watching soaps, mowing the lawn, or whatever else they were doing before they got this deep into this post.

Now for the rest of you, who like me, can't stop analyzing and anticipating the coming season regardless of the absence of any hard data, we have strategy number 2 (read out loud in a bad Chinese accent while sitting on the floor in the lotus position): Reading the Tea Leaves.

So what exactly do the leaves say... Well one way to read them is to compare statements that were made this time last year to those just posted on MB-TF and filter out anything related to "working hard," "fast," "having fun," "learning," "talented," and other such meaningless prattle.

Witness: August 6, 2007, Greg Davis: "Offensive lineman-wise we're trying to fill a couple spots obviously. Cedric Dockery coming back from the knee injury is getting back into the flow of things. We're a little light in that area, but the first group is doing a great job. Both tackles are really talented, Adam Ulatoski and Tony Hills.

Read: the offensive line will suck in 2007, especially at guard and center.

Fast forward to Aug 5, 2008, Greg Davis, "I do think we have as deep a line as I've ever been around. Obviously there's some separation because several guys have more experience. We have some young guys that have tremendous talent, and they're in that 13 or 14 people I was talking about....we're really pleased with our recruiting and with the guys we've brought in. But we don't feel like Chris Hall will have to play five positions in one ball game like he did last year. What we've tried to do is find two centers, three guards and three tackles. I think we'll be able to do that. And if we can play two full teams, that's always our goal is to be able to play two full groups."

Read: The Horns will have a very good offensive line and shouldn't see as much of a drop-off when players get injured, such as last year when Adam Ulatoski had a dislocated elbow in the TCU game and the Horns proceeded to struggle against Central Florida, look lost against KState and lose to Oklahoma in the next three games (not that there weren't other reasons).

So to my further reading of the tea leaves...Let's see, tap out some tea into my palm, blow gently, and..ah yes...

WR - we have good talent at competing for the ball in Williams and Buckner, and good timing between McCoy and Cosby and Shipley. Shipley is healthy for the first time at the beginning of the season. We don't have transcendant speed at the position. Look for receivers to strugge to get open, because McCoy just talks about knowing where Cosby will be. That doesn't help when the defender is right with him.

RB - lots of options and talent, with perhaps transcendant talent in Whittaker.

QB - Chiles can play QB without embarassing himself, but the mystery remains about why Sherrod Harris is not ahead of him at QB.

Offensive creativity. Every single observer and coach mentions new wrinkles and packages, including putting a WR in motion in the backfield as an extra run option. Confidence abounds in putting these in. Last year, there was only schizophrenia about whether to be a running or a passing team. Not one practice observer complained about the WR bubble screeen.

DL - speed, speed, and more speed. Great pursuit and pass rush. However....The offensive line keeps opening nice holes for the running game. Our DL will be vulnerable against a power running team, but the Horns don't play anyone who can make them pay for smallish DL over 4 quarters EXCEPT OU.

LB- A potentially transcendant group, especially at OLB, where Orakpo might drop back as a fourth LB and Kindle could be the team's second-best pass rusher. Seems 1000 years since last year when Mack was saying that, "We've got a couple of players who were instrumental in our championship and have given a lot to the program..."

DB - Earl Thomas, a RS freshman is not only a starter but a potentially transcendant player. observers describe receivers as "blamketed," "smothered," The Horns seem to be shaping up to be a good pass defense.

Defensive creativity. The best players will play. Witness: Keenan Robinson "started" at LB over Kindle because he, unlike Kindle, was at spring practice. By day 2, Kindle had moved past Robinson. Ishie Oduegwu has the most experience and is getting the least reps. Colt McCoy remarks about the confusion and uncertain deployments of the defense. Boom!

Overall coaching creativity. The whole structure of fall pratice was changed so that coaches could teach the freshmen in a separate session and slow things down for them. In GD's vernacular, reducing the size of their "swollen" brains. This, my friends, is what PB is talking about when he says "player development."

Intangibles, oops, just had a gust of wind. The tea leaves are gone...Guess I'll have to play dumb and wait to see about that one. I was starting to get cross-eyed anyway.