SB Nation User Blog: bwfull

Jaguars and Fate: History is Written by the Victorious

bwfull — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 05:36:29 -0000

Maurice Jones-Drew (notes) #32 of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks on during warm ups against the Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium on December 17, 2009 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

Chalk this up as just another close win for the Indianapolis Colts over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts continue on their trek to perfection. This one played out completely opposite to their first match-up, a 14-12 Colts victory. This time the offense would take center stage. Even with two chances in the last five minutes, the Jaguars could not take their place in the history books to become the story of the team that ended perfection.

The usual suspects assumed their time in the spotlight as Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark all played a major role in this hard fought game. The only mistake any of the three would make was Clark mishandling a Manning third quarter pass which led to an interception, his first pass of the game not caught by a Colt (the first incomplete pass would come a series later.)

Big plays will be lauded. Chad Simpson's 93 yard kick off return. Wayne's 65 yard touchdown catch that would end up being the game winner. Clark's circus catch in the end zone for the the Colt's first score.

In turn the Jaguars failings will be cited as causes for their loss. Reggie Nelson's tackling which accounted for scores by both Clark and Wayne. Late game penalties which negated big plays. David Garrard's overthrown passes at critical times. The lack of any real pressure on Manning for most of the game.

It did not have to be this way.

If David's pass does not sail over the head of Mike Thomas the talk would be much different. If Josh Scobee makes his 57 yard field goal attempt before the half the Jaguars may not even need David to attempt that throw as their late game drive would need to only have yielded three points instead of seven.

We might have heard analysis of how Dirk Koetter's spectacular play calling allowed Jacksonville to own an 11 minute time of possession advantage while attacking the Colts in a very balanced fashion with 44 pass plays to 32 run plays. Or of how committed Koetter was to the run and how the play selection showed a faith in his quarterback and his line.

The talk about Garrard would be his play making ability on more than one occasion. There was the pass to Mike Thomas for a touchdown on third and goal from the 13 yard line. The scramble and nine yard touchdown pass to Maurice Jones-Drew. A third and seven late fourth quarter throw on the run to Mike Sims-Walker who was triple covered.

The progression of Marcedes Lewis might have been a highlighted. Not only did he lead the team in yards per catch with 13.3 but he also had the longest catch of the night at 25 yards. He was also noted for his exceptional blocking which was a component of Garrard's success. Tonight Lewis stood out not necessarily for his gaudy numbers but for his reliability.

How much praise would the offensive line get? Allowing time for Garrard to go through his progressions. Dominating the Colts defensive front as they opened holes for a running attack that averaged 4.1 yards per carry and 139 yards for the evening.

Maurice Jones-Drew, of course, must get his time. With three of his last four games being disappointments and with questions about whether he was a 16 game back being bantered about, Drew's play did nothing short of stamping out those fires. He was patient while waiting for the lanes to open and fierce when he hit them. He managed 140 total yards, 110 on the ground and 30 through the air, and a touchdown both rushing and receiving.

Though giving up over 30 points, the defense would still get applause. The outstanding linebacker play of undrafted rookie Russell Allen and the veteran Justin Durant, both of whom seemed to have their motor running for a full 60 minutes. Gerald Alexander's knockdown of a Manning to Clark pass on third down with a little more than two minutes left could have been the defensive play of the game.

For Jack Del Rio, it would have made his coach of the year campaign that much stronger. Fielding such a young team against the veteran Manning led Colts, his past failings would have taken a back seat to accomplishment of handing Indianapolis their first loss.

So many woulds and mights.

The critical eyes will still look to focus on the cracks in Jim Caldwell's armor. Already there are conversations and articles stating how the Jaguars exposed the means by which one can take Indianapolis down. But those stares will be harder and more invasive to the team that almost won. Del Rio does not have the safety net of an undefeated team and a Super Bowl run. Instead he will deal with how the playoffs were lost and why his team can't finish games.

Jaguar fans, players and coaches may remember this game. It may eventually become a moment which, through losing, the team grew up. But for now they are just another team that fell short in their attempt to stop perfection. What most will remember is that, in week 15 of the 2009 NFL season, the Colts won.

- B-Dub

Attention Jaguars: Beating the Colts is Simple Math

bwfull — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:47:34 -0000

Derek Cox intercepting Peyton Manning in week one.

A common sense approach to beating the Indianapolis Colts has been control the clock to keep Peyton Manning off the field. It is a mantra spoken by Jack Del Rio in past seasons and has proven successful. One only needs to look at last years game at Lucas Oil Stadium where Jaguars held a 41:35 to 18:25 possession advantage. A 51 yard Josh Scobee field goal with 4 seconds left proved the difference in a 23-21 victory.

But how successful has it really been? Earlier this year Manning utilized less than a quarter of the game (14:53) to dismiss the Miami Dolphins. Of the Colts 14 wins, over half (8) have come when they lost the time of possession advantage. Half of those were games where the Colts won by more than a touchdown.

Manning doesn't need time. There are more than enough offensive weapons for him to strike quickly. Beating the Colts boils down to simple math: 7 is greater than 3.

The Miami game is a prime indicator that field goals are not sufficient. Sure you'll catch number 18 on an off day such as San Francisco, Baltimore and Denver did. The 49rs problem wasn't their inability to score touchdowns, they had two, but rather they couldn't score enough. Denver had the same problem, and this was a game in which they picked off Manning three times.

The Ravens may have had the best shot at defeating the Colts aside from the Dolphins. Down by two, a late interception in scoring territory sealed the game. Their problem was five field goals and zero touchdowns in a game where the Colts, again, gave the ball away three time.

This year's undefeated Indianapolis team is doing one thing better than any other team in the league: third down conversions. While the Jaguars have a respectable 43.4% success rate (6th in the league), the Colts are converting 51.6%. What is more telling to their success is that they've only been put into third down situations 159 times, which ranks them third lowest. Defensively the Colts and Jaguars are third and fourth in allowing teams to convert at 44.3% and 43.4% respectively.

Additionally the Colts are making the most of their time with the football. Per Football Outsiders they have the highest Drive Success Rate (DSR) at 76.4%, which indicates the percentage of down series that results in a first down or touchdown. They are second only to the Saints in touchdowns per drive at 32.3%. The Jaguars, meanwhile, sit 17th with a 67.1% DSR and 17th at 18.6 touchdowns per drive.

A quick look at the history of this series will show you the two play each other tight. Only three games jump out as one sided. With the changes each team has undergone this past year, history may not be a telling indicator of how Thursday will turn out. Even looking at the Colts 14-12 victory in week one appears more as a first run of two new teams. The Jaguars with the roster moves and the Colts with the coaching changes. Though both have progressed, it is clear Jacksonville still has questions to answer.

Keeping Manning off the field is a component to a successful game plan but it isn't enough. Defensively this team must not give Manning advantageous downs. Offensively the Jaguars must find a way to fix their red zone deficiencies. You do not beat perfection with mediocrity.

- Brian Fullford

Wind Sprints Week 14: The Fish That Got Away Edition

bwfull — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:36:58 -0000

via law.marquette.edu

Herman Melville was a Jaguar fan based on his beard. He was also familiar with battling fish. OK...mammals.

I can only imagine what is was like to listen on the radio as your Jaguars fought for victory. As Josh Scobee launched that opening kick you knew a battle was commencing. Melville could've penned this quote specifically to capture the atmosphere of this game.

At last the anchor was up, the sails were set, and off we glided. It was a sharp, cold Christmas; and as the short northern day merged into night, we found ourselves almost broad upon the wintry ocean, whose freezing spray cased us in ice, as in polished armor.

Enjoy these kernels from the "deepest" caverns of my mind.

What some may miss is the growth of Jack Del Rio. He said all the right things in the post-game press conference. More than that his body language and tone of voice did not contradict his words. I believe he has a feel for the team and the team trusts him.
My north endzone seats afforded me a spectacular view of David Garrard's perfect deep pass to Torry Holt. I have learned that these seats are the best if you like to really watch a play develop.
A horse, a horse. Youthful Holt legs for a horse.
Before catching myself, I wanted to blame any number of people for this loss. I think they just got beat be a better team. Not too much better.
Great call on fourth and one at your own 35, but were you setting up the outside run play for three and a half quarters Dirk?
Of all the plays, this is the one that stands out the most. What if Ernest Wilford doesn't slip on third and eight after catching the five yard pass?
I know the chances were slim to pull out a victory but David cannot hold onto that ball and take a game clinching sack.
The first half was a clinic on how to out muscle your opponent by the Miami offensive line.
The second half was a clinic on how to fight back by the Jacksonville defensive line. Vince Lombardi would be proud.
"Fatigue makes cowards of us all." Vince Lombardi
If you ever question how important a pass rush is, watch this football game. Chad Henne was a different quarterback once he lost time to go through his progressions.
I thought the linebacking corps played a great game today. When the front four were getting nothing done the boys behind them stepped up.
Additionally, the Jaguar defensive backs showed that they will make plays if not asked to cover for 7-10 seconds.

Can someone tell me why Tyron Brackenridge was backpeddaling in the end zone on the throw to Ricky Williams that gained a first down on the one yard line?
I think I need to quote Camus, again. "We must imagine Sysiphus happy." I will tell you why. Here are some of the names who made the plays yesterday on defense: Harvey, Groves, Cox, Knighton and Alexander.
For anyone who thinks teal is not a "masculine" color, you must have never seen a Dolphin fan wearing that obnoxious orange.
On that note, the Dolphin fans I experienced were great.
Apart from couples who were Jaguars\Dolphins, the second most frequent combination was Cowboys\Dolphins. And there were quite a few.
I know you're proud of your team but wearing their jersey to the stadium when they are not playing is a bit dorky.
Even with the number of Miami fans at the game, when the Jaguars had the ball (for the most part) the stadium was very silent.
Two things I loved seeing at the game: 1) full parking lots and 2) more people wanting to buy than sell tickets.
So I'm not totally over the wanting to blame someone. I really want to know what Dirk was thinking. The impression I took was that he believed Miami was simply faster than Jacksonville.
You want creative playcalling? Miami's Dan Henning ran reverses, play action, sweeps and mis-direction with a high degree of success.
Wayne Weaver must really be hurting for cash as it appears the Jaguars had to play in sneakers. I'm taking up a collection to buy cleats so this team will have an equal advantage on wet turf.
Back to the advantage of my seats. I had the pleasure of watching Greg Jones direct two players, cut to his left and make one heck of a tackle on a Miami punt return. He may never realize his full potential at running back but the kid is a football player.
I have praised you Derek Harvey but there were a few times yesterday where you bit on reverses, misdirection and play action.
Considering the fourth quarter defensive collapse in New York, yesterday's second half defensive recovery is nothing short of amazing. Miami had the ball eight minutes longer in the first half and 11 for the game, yet it was the second half in which the Jaguars defense stepped up.
I loved the quarterback draw on fourth and three late in the game. What was Brad Meester doing on that play? Who was supposed to block Randy Starks? Maybe the better question is were there 11 men on the field because it seemed Brad was playing center and left guard. Care to respond Vince Manuwai?
We really do miss Rashean Mathis. He is the only real ball hawk the team has. They will need him on Thursday.
Looking ahead to New England, I say we press cover any wideout they have. Randy Moss isn't the concern, it is Wes Welker.
Some of the best football of the year was on television Saturday. Montana against Villanova this coming weekend should not be missed.
The Division II game with NW Missouri State and Grand Valley State was just as entertaining.
NW Missouri State's QB Blake Bolles looked like he could play D-1 football.
I absoultely love the ESPN College Football Playoffs Simulator. If you haven't used it you're missing out.
On my first run, using the ESPN Power Rankings option, TCU beat UF for the National Championship.
Not sure I'll ever get used to the amount of hate that some will write and speak about when it comes to an award like the Heisman. Loved seeing five finalists. I was pulling for Toby Gerhart but I am happy for Mark Ingram.
As misguided as it may be, I feel really good about this Thursday's game against the Colts. If nothing else to see where this team is compared to one of the best.

- Brian Fullford

The Jaguars made it official Thursday that the game against the Miami Dolphins that will likely determine whether the Jaguars go to the playoffs will be blacked out. The Jaguars still hope to sell about 52,000 to 53,000 tickets and to get 50,000 in the s

bwfull — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:08:52 -0000

The Jaguars made it official Thursday that the game against the Miami Dolphins that will likely determine whether the Jaguars go to the playoffs will be blacked out. The Jaguars still hope to sell about 52,000 to 53,000 tickets and to get 50,000 in the s

Jaguars vs. Dolphins - Fun Facts to Impress Your Friends and Family

bwfull — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:10:20 -0000

via www.jacksonville.com

Nothing ground breaking or cutting edge. I just thought it might be fun to look back and highlight some items from the Jaguars\Dolphins series.

You don't know where you might be or who you might be with, but the ability to throw out useless information has been known to impress a friend or two. It may also allow you to win an argument or lay down some serious "smack".

Some of these you may already know, some may be interesting and some may be useless. Check that. None of these are useless.

Feel free to comment your own and enjoy.

Random

Fred Taylor (1999\18-135-1) is the only player in the series to rush for over 100 yards.
All but one of the four games have surpassed the 70,000 attendance mark. 1998 - 74,051: 1999 - 75,173: 2003 - 66,437: 2006 - 73,160
In games that matter, these teams have faced off four times, with the Jaguars holding a 3-1 advantage

1998

The first meeting was in 1998 on Monday Night Football. The score: Jaguars 28 Dolphins 21.
The world was "officially" introduced to Fred Taylor when he broke off a 77-yard run on the first play from scrimmage. He would eventually leave the game in the third quarter with a shoulder bruise.
Taylor would finish the game with 89 yards on 12 carries. His replacement, Tavian Banks, finished with 75 yards on nine carries.
The Jaguars scored the first 14 and the last 14 points of the game.
Tony Brackens sealed the victory with a forced fumble and recovery on a sack of Dan Marino.
The Dolphins lost despite owning time of possession (39:06-20:54) and first downs (25-13).

1999

In the famous "Career Ender for Marino" the Jaguars crushed the Dolphins 62-7 in the second round of the 1999 playoffs.
The Dolphins committed seven turnovers and the Jaguars amassed 520 yards of total offense.
It was the most lopsided NFL playoff victory since a 73-0 victory by the Chicago Bears over the Washington Redskins in 1940 and the worst defeat in Miami history.
Miami's only score came with three seconds left in the first half.
The "big" scoring plays of the game were a 90 yard Fred Taylor run, a Tony Brackens 16 yard fumble return and a 70 yard pass to Jimmy Smith.
With Tony Boselli not playing, the Jaguars totalled 257 yards rushing.
The Jaguars 41 points in the first half tied a NFL postseason record. Their 24-0 first quarter lead also tied the record for largest first quarter lead in NFL postseason history.
Jay Fielder (7-11-1-172), who replaced Mark Brunell in the second half, had a better performance than Dan Marino (11-25-2-95).

2003

The 2003 game marked the first and only Miami win in the series, with the Dolphins posting a 24-10 victory.
Jay Fiedler, ironically, was the Dolphins starting quarterback
A memorable lead-in to the game. With the introduction of the "Keep Chopping Wood" mantra and placement of a block of wood and an axe in the club house, punter\holder Chris Hanson was lost for the season earlier in the week when he cut his leg open with the axe.
In an effort to match the Dolphins 1999 turnover performance, the Jaguars committed five on the day.
With the game tied 10-10 going into the fourth quarter, the Dolphins would score thanks to two Jaguars miscues. After forcing a fumble with Dolphins driving, Miami TE Randy McMichael picked up the fumble for a two yard TD. The game clincher was a Sam Madison 29 interception return.
Along with the most turnovers, the Jaguars also held the advantage in total yards (332-234), time of possession (32:54-27:06) and first downs (22-16). Amazingly the Dolphins won while committing the most penalties (11-149 to 7-50).

2006

The most recent game was a 24-10 Jaguar victory.
It was the first non-preseason game played in Miami.
With Nick Saban at Miami's helm, it gave the Jaguars a 3-0 record in games when Miami was led by a National Championship winning coach, The other victories were in 1998 and 1999 when Jimmy Johnson led Dolphins.
Matt Jones led the team in receiving with six receptions for 128 yard and a touchdown.
Statistically this was the most even game in the series.

Dissecting MJD's Game-Clinching Run

bwfull — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 21:10:30 -0000

via tuphotos.jacksonville.com

Caption: RICK WILSON/The Times-Union--12/6/09--Jacksonville Jaguars running back #32 Maurice Jones-Drew runs through a hole in the Houston Texans defense to pick up a first down late in the game to enable the Jags to run out the clock during the Jags 23-18 victory Sunday December 6, 2009 at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium in Jacksonville, Fl.

After reading Terry's smart article on how the game was won, I wanted to gain a better understanding of what made that final play such a success. Up to that point the Texans had held Maurice Jones-Drew in check, allowing only 41 yards on 17 carries. With 4:01 on the clock and three time outs remaining there was more than enough time for the Houston defense to force a punt and give Matt Schaub an opportunity to steal this game.

As noted in Terry's piece, here is the breakdown of that final drive.

1st and 10 at JAC 24 M.Jones-Drew up the middle to JAX 24 for no gain
2nd and 10 at JAC 24 M.Jones-Drew up the middle to JAX 39 for 15 yards
1st and 10 at JAC 39 M.Jones-Drew up the middle to JAX 43 for 4 yards
2nd and 6 at JAC 43 M.Jones-Drew right end to HST 48 for 9 yards
1st and 10 at HOU 48 M.Jones-Drew up the middle to HST 48 for no gain
2nd and 10 at HOU 48 M.Jones-Drew right end to HST 41 for 7 yards
3rd and 3 at HOU 41 M.Jones-Drew right end to HST 38 for 3 yards

Houston uses their last time out with 2:13 left to play. Somehow, in six attempts Drew has almost matched his game total. Maurice receives the glory for getting the yards, but the credit lies solely with Jordan Black, Marcedes Lewis, Eben Britton and Greg Jones.

Jordan is lined up as the ROT, while Eben is the RG. The LBs are reading the off-tackle play and the defensive backs are playing up tight. What is interesting about the Texans formation is that safety Bernard Pollard is playing the LOLB spot while Brian Cushing is wide left to contain anything that gets pushed outside.

The RDE, Antonio Smith shoots the "B" gap and Black takes him inside. This has essentially negated any interior lanes but has also opens the "C" gap. Black has done his job but just barely. Smith is able to get a hand on MJD, something that will actually benefit the play.

Cushing pushes hard up-field, in an effort to get around Marcedes. The beauty of this matchup is Cushing's attempt to put a swim move on Lewis completely fails. Big number 89 gets under the LB's pads and clears out Cushing by driving him deep into the backfield. There is now no one to contain.

Meanwhile, Britton has pulled from his guard spot. Exhibiting great foot speed he fills the lane opened by Black and Lewis, taking out the CB Jacques Reeves (I may have the wrong player here as I couldn't get a good read on the number or name on the jersey). What Eben also does is to negate Bernard Pollard filling the lane from his safety position. Thought not credited with the tackle, he is one of the first to make contact with number 32.

All that's left is for the fullback to finish the task. MLB DeMeco Ryans and ROLB Zac Diles have read the play and are quick enough to get to the hole, actually getting a yard into the backfield. However, Greg Jones meets them just as they begin to turn towards MJD. Like a bowling ball, he takes them both out of the play. The irony is that Smith's brief grab of MJD looks to have allowed a split second for the running back to wait as Jones finishes his block.

As much as the offensive line has been highlighted as a weakness during the season, this play deserves recognition for its dominant execution at a critical time. There is something to be said for crunch-time players.

B-Dub

Wind Sprints Week 13

bwfull — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:16:33 -0000

Once you learn to quit, it becomes a habit.
Vince Lombardi

Vince, I promise you I am not going to quit on this team.
36,000? I honestly think it was less than that. I'm sick inside and when I see Dan Hicken on TV saying this is not going to keep this team in Jacksonville I know "they" know something is being discussed.
I hope the National Media rips this city for the lack of attendance.
Derek Cox was a joy to watch. There were a few plays where Andre Johnson looked like he was wearing a teal jersey.
Along those lines, can we begin cutting the secondary, on the whole, some slack? No Rashean Mathis and we saw big plays by Alexander, Brackenridge and Nelson. Amazing what QB pressure will do.
As usual we have at least one "wrap up Reggie" play. No reason Andre Johnson catches that ball across the middle and runs to the goal line, Nelson.
Unless you were at the game you won't be able to appreciate how hard Matt Schaub worked to complete a good number of his passes.
Lost my voice about mid-way through the third quarter. Feels good.
Fourth and inches...quarterback sneak. Do not hand the ball off three yards in the backfield.
As Grossman walks onto the field I told my friend this seals the victory. The guy behind me says, "You must not be a Gator." Thank you, sir, for validating the perception that this is a college town.
Your best value for food in the stadium is a Burrito Gallery burrito. No, I did not get paid for that plug.
Alabama should destroy Texas. That was a dominating performance and fun to watch. I was pulling for Florida but you have to appreciate the level of execution Saban's team exhibited.
This is the last time I'll offer an opinion about Tebow as a college athlete. The kid loves being a Gator and he competes with his heart. Anyone who needs to kick this kid for crying needs a character check.
I'm sure no one will knock Bobby Bowden for not addressing the media for fear he might break down.
Oh, I like the Gators but I am a UCLA Bruin so losing is nothing new to me.
I know you hated it ACC but FSU in the Gator Bowl is the right thing to do. Thank you for fielding some of the greatest teams I've ever watched, Bobby.
For the many of you who missed the game, that was the most AWESOME fly over ever! I swear I saw the pilot touch the scoreboard with his hand.
Yeah, it was that close.
My heart goes out to the Texans fans. Your team is less than a handful of plays from 9-3.
There was a guy wearing shorts and a 12th Man tank top at the game. Really?
This stat really floored me. Only eight TD passes by David going into today's game. Only two, Lewis (2) and Walker (6), owned those.
How about Nate Hughes and Ernest Wilford!!!!!!!
I'd like to thank every woman who attended this weekend's game in knee high black boots. It made the game about 10 degrees warmer.
So Oakland can travel to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers but the Jaguars can't travel to Seattle or San Francisco and win at least one of those games?
And on that note, I don't ever want to hear someone say one player does not make a difference on defense.Troy Polamalu picks off at least one of those Gradkowski ducks.
If you haven't seen The Blind Side you must. I haven't been affected by a sports movie like that since Remember the Titans.
Of all the fans I've watched games with at our stadium, Dolphin fans by far have been the worst. I expect next weekend to be nasty in the stands, and possibly a 70\30 ratio.
Robert Meachem's strip and TD return of an INT by Kareem Moore was one of the better plays you'll see.
I am irrationally superstitious about sports. I'll stay in the bathroom if my team does well while I'm there (2007 playoff game against the Steelers.) I've only been able to attend three home games and they've won all three. I can't explain the other two wins but remember, I'm irrational.
Four sacks and nine QB hurries. One sack there were 4 Texans over David. So much for that offense only meeting.
Call me crazy but I think Drew Brees stole Tom Brady's secret bag of victory magic.
No one seems to want to cut Josh Scobee anymore.
Mack Brown, I don't care what lip service you our your quarterback try to give us. The end of that game would have made us all forget the name Les Miles.
The stats don't show it but Groves played bigger than two tackles and one QB hurry.
We were small in number but we were loud and today was perfect football weather.

Fred Taylor Could Be Ready For Jaguars

bwfull — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 13:46:15 -0000

Fred Taylor Could Be Ready For Jaguars

Are you a fan based on the probable or the possible?

bwfull — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:22:21 -0000

Why, as a city, do we want this?

The question is really a double entendre. Why do we want this team? Why do we want to lose this team? Recent news from Los Angeles has energized the monster. Seeing it walk and hearing its menacing voice has left the citizens distraught. Prophets on street corners, perched high on their crates, warn those who will listen of the impending doom.

Now where did I put that crate?

Being the "NFL's miscalculation" is worn like a hair shirt by the city and the fans. Groups like "Revive the Pride" and True to the Teal" are fighing hard to get this community involved in support. This weekend presented itself as an opportunity to make a statement to the league that the passion is still there. Yet the stadium will once again be hauntingly under attended.

Did you miss the memo? Controlling playoff destiny? Hated AFC South rival? 5-1 home record?

These last three home games were, I thought, a sure draw based on where this team stands in light of where they were supposed to be. Boy was I wrong. Now with the news that Los Angeles will be ready for a team, or teams, within the next two years how does the city respond? I'm not sure we'll see much above 40,000.

Don't throw away your team gear. It may be worth something.

Let me put this into perspective. Back on December 1, at Jacksonville defeated the Cincinatti Bengals 30-27 before 57,408 fans. It was a game that followed a 28-25 OT victory in Baltimore. At the time the team was 5-7 and no one was thinking playoffs. The victory would be one of five to close out the season on an unbelievable run to the AFC Championship Game.

How much different is the 1996 team from the 2009 team? In hindsight we can see the talent that was Mark Brunell, Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell. It would be a fair comment to say that, offensively, we've seen glimmers of the same excitement in David, Mike and Mike.

Defensively is another story. Apart from Daryl Smith, Rashean Mathis and John Henderson there is no real match for Tony Brackens, Kevin Hardy, Jeff Lageman, Joel Smeenge or Clyde Simmons. This years team looks to rookies Derek Cox and Terrance Knighton to be impact players.

But that new car smell was still wafting through the air 13 years ago. Today we're tainted and cynical. We look at this team and our logic tells us there is no way this team can make the playoffs. Why bother buying tickets to watch a dying beast? The San Francisco loss gave evidence to the detractors, allowing them to leverage the teams inconsistency and youth as a reason not to "waste money".

Consider this:

When the Bengals came to town they were 5-7 and would finish with a three game win streak.
The Houston Oilers were 7-6 when Jacksonville visited them the following week. The Jaguars would win that game 23-17.
The week prior to the OT win in Baltimore the Jaguars all but ended their season with a 28-3 loss in Pittsburgh.
Need I speak to what needed to happen at the end of the Atlanta game?

I know what you're thinking. The remainder of the 2009 schedule includes only one bad team reamining in Cleveland. The victory run in 1996 ended against the 7-9 Seahawks and the 3-13 Falcons. A fair point, but the Jaguars were still fielding an expansion roster. You can't convince me the Bills and Broncos teams they faced in the playoffs are far off the Colts and Patriots teams they'll face in the coming weeks.

Regardless of whether the playoffs are probable, the fact remains this team is in the playoff hunt. Much like you could never have predicted Morten Andersen would miss a chip shot field goal you can not predict what these next five games hold. What is your motivation: the probable or the possible?

So it begs the question: Is it probable or possible this team won't move? Good question. Logic tells us all the factors are in place to move this team as a sound business decision. Yet we know it is still possible based on the stadium lease and the fondness of the owner that this team stays.

For those of us who have followed Vic Ketchman we know he leaves clues in his "Ask Vic" column. Dismiss the reports from Los Angeles and turn your eyes from Yahoo articles stating the Jaguars are moving but consider what Vic is actually saying with these recent responses to questions from fans.

David from Charlotte, NC Tim Tebow is being projected to be picked in the mid to early 20’s, which is where the Jags will likely pick if they can win the next few games. Do Gator fans realize these next few games might actually be for Tebow? If so, “The Jack” should be packed, right?
Vic: I wouldn’t worry about that.

Darian from Jacksonville The Jags are without a second-round pick this year, which I think is the round Tebow should be selected. Will this force the Jags to draft him in the first round because of this?
Vic: I wouldn’t worry about that.

Todd from Jacksonville From Craigslist: “Pittsburgh Steelers PSL-2 in Sec 236, $25,000 each (Irwin). Two Steelers seat licenses in Section 236, Row F, Seats 13-14, priced at $25,000 each. Great investment!” Are we not so lucky to have football in Jacksonville for pennies compared to this? Those fans will pay any amount to see their team play and we can’t get people to pay an amount far less. That’s just the PSL’s, not the season tickets. Crazy! Could you imagine the crowds if we had PSL's?
Vic: I’m so sad for Jacksonville. It doesn’t understand the value of what it has and what losing it could mean.

John from Jacksonville Beach, FL How sick is it that a seat license could cost $25,000 in Pittsburgh? I feel sorry for them. Do they realize what a miserable life they have? Don't feel sorry for folks in Jacksonville who have much more to do with their entertainment dollar.
Vic: I won’t.

What is he asking? If you listened to him on Jaguars This Week you heard a man that has years of NFL experience warning the listeners that there is little rope to grasp. Take from this what you will.

In speaking with a representative in the ticketing office, the Houston game will be embarassing (my word). The Miami and the Indianapolis games, however, are looking like they may allow the game to be televised. I won't speculate as to what that might mean to the talks of moving this team. I simply don't know if we are beyond the point of no return.

Sadly we will have to live with lack of fan support for a playoff contending team on Sunday. Yes there are some that simply cannot afford tickets but what of those who can? At 1:00 pm I will be sitting in section 226, fully washed in the possibility of leaving the stadium with my team 7-5. If the city and fan base has gotten to a point where even playoff potential is measured by probability this team is doomed.

So here I stand, on my crate and preaching to the choir. I am hoping this isn't the last song of the encore. I do not want this show to end.

Overcoming Battle Red Day in Houston.

bwfull — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:21:53 -0000

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky1ApaQGKY0

Overcoming Battle Red Day in Houston.