From the StLToday website, an amusing article relating the frustrations of the Cardinals when facing Bud Norris:

http://interact.stltoday.com/blogzone/tipsheet/tipsheet/2010/05/the-legend-of-bud-norris-grows/

Ten powers of  Bud Norris are listed:  My favorites:

Bud Norris doesn’t wear a watch. HE decides what time it is.

When Bud Norris plays monopoly, it affects the actual world economy.

It's very entertaining, and also nice to see the Cardinals sweating a little bit!

I used to be upset (back in the good old days of 5-6 years ago) that Adam Everett hurt us big time at the plate. Despite his fielding capabilities, he was a very wek hitter.  But now, if we could get him back, it would be a step up!

Take a look at these numbers:

Adam Everett - Career:  BA .245  OBP .297  Slg  .352  OPS .648

Houston Astros 2010:   BA .214  OBP .239  Slg  .282  OPS .521

UGLY, UGLY, UGLY!

That's the contention of Matthew Goodman of The Bleacher Report.  Writing in this article: ,The Best & Worst GMs of the Offseason he makes a pretty convincing case.  And if you only believe a part of his article, it's still more than discouraging.

His overall conclusion: "...guys like Ed Wade show that some teams are still stuck in the past and consequently, the bottom of the standings".  OUCH!

Little wonder that Drayton may have some interest in selling the team, but will anybody be a buyer?

They take advantage of other media opportunities, and apparently the Astros have hired one or two.  My playoff ticket application came today (don't start laughing now, it gets better) and here is, directly quoted, some of the text of that epic:

"In the past month your Houston Astros have been playing incredible baseball as they ascend towards the top of the National League Central Division."   In reality, during the past 31 days the Astros have played 11-16 baseball ( a blistering .407 pace) and dropped from 3 games behind to 10 games behind.

"In 2009, the Astros are hoping to charge back to the World Series and bring home a championship to the city of Houston".  Well, good for them!  Don't be satisfied with anything measly like a winning record, or simply making the playoffs.

"We want you to live the excitement with us and join us at Minute Maid Park in setting the scene for a rowdy playoff atmosphere".  Apparently, they are planning to televise the playoff games on the center field screen, because there isn't going to be any live action there after September 27th!

"The Astros have the potential to play up to 10 home playoff games in October and November."  And I have the potential to live to be 110 years old.  In reality, my chances are probably a whole lot better.

It is possible that there is one group of people even less in touch with reality than those who composed this masterpiece - and that would be those of us who found it in our mailboxes!

This is from John Dewan's Stat Of The Week  - June 12, 2009 - two Astros make the list!

As we reach the middle of June, our sample size is getting larger and larger giving our defensive stats more and more credibility. Three of this year's top defensive teams, Toronto, Texas and Pittsburgh, also have the top individual fielders in baseball.

Aaron Hill is no surprise here. He posted 25 Defensive Runs Saved at second base in 2006, and won the Fielding Bible Award in 2007 with another 21 Runs Saved. After missing the majority of 2008 with an injury, Hill has bounced back nicely, totaling 13 Runs Saved through 59 games this season.

Ian Kinsler has been all over the place since his rookie season. In three seasons, Kinsler has saved 0, 7, and -7 runs with his defense at second base. He appears to have taken a giant step forward this year, with 12 Runs Saved through 57 games.

Like Hill, Jack Wilson has been an outstanding defender for several years. He averaged 12 Runs Saved per season at shortstop from 2003 to 2008, including a league best 28 in 2005. He's saved another dozen runs so far in just 38 games in 2009, leading all shortstops.

There are several more familiar faces off to good starts defensively, and a handful of newcomers as well. Here are the top fielders in baseball in 2009, according to Total Defensive Runs Saved:

This article appeared today in the Houston Business Journal with the headline:   "Houston Astros launch aggressive ticket giveaways":

Faced with lower attendance and tough economic times, the Houston Astros on Thursday launched a 3-for-1 ticket giveaway promotion.

The “Kids Free All Summer” deal for home games at Minute Maid Park gives fans two additional free tickets for youths age 14 and under with the purchase of one full-price adult ticket in three price ranges: Mezzanine ($20), View Deck 1 ($15) or View Deck 2 ($12).

In partnership with Minute Maid, the promotion will run from June 23 to August 23. The promotional tickets can be purchased beginning June 12.

“With the current economic climate, we felt it was important to create an opportunity for more families to bring their kids to Astros games this summer,” said Astros owner Drayton McLane Jr.

Through May 13, nine Major League Baseball teams, including the Astros, saw double-digit percentage attendance declines. Astros attendance through that date dropped 13 percent from the year-earlier period. In recent years, the Astros have typically had a slow start at the gate, with attendance picking up in late July and August when the team begins its trademark late-season surge.

Overall MLB attendance was down 5 percent, with the Washington Nationals reporting the biggest decline of more than 30 percent. The two Florida-based teams, the Tampa Rays andFlorida Marlins, on the other hand, are reporting the biggest attendance surges, up by 41 percent and 36 percent, respectively.

If the Astros are going to make some kind of move, this would be a very favoable time for them to do so. The Astros are in the midst of what should be the weakest run of opponents they'll face all season. They play only 9 of their 34 games remaining before the All-Star break against teams that currently have a winning record.  That seems to be key for the Astros - only once this season have they won two games in a row against a team with a winning record (at the time they played) and that was on April 21-22 against the Dodgers.

If they don't get it done before the break, they'll be facing a huge dose of reality - the first five series thereafter are aginst the Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, and again, the Cardinals.

...to paraphrase the earlier President Bush.

It's not news that the Astros offense has disappointed greatly up unitl now, but I hadn't realized just how bad it has been ... until I looked at a comparison of the individual Astros performances with their counterparts on the reamining NL teams.

It's even worse than I had suspected.

The tables below rank each of the Astros starters (I used OPS for the comparison) with the other NL starters on a position by positon basis:

OPS RANKINGS

ASTROS STARTERS vs OTHER NL STARTERS

(Minimum 15 Starts) - as of April 30                                                                                                         

Position                 # Qualifying          Astros  Starter                   Rank

C                             10                           Rodriguez                            10

1B                           14                           Berkman                              13

2B                           15                           Matsui                                  13

SS                           13                           Tejada                                  6

3B                           14                           Blum                                      9

LF                            16                           Lee                                        9

CF                           14                           Bourn                                    11

RF                           13                           Pence                                   9

Astros Team Ranking  (among 16 NL Teams)

OBP       T14

Slug        16

OPS        15

We have only one player - Tejada - ranking in the top half at his position, and he only barely, by ranking just one above the median.

It's truly pathetic!

The Astros website reports that Jose Valverde has signed a one year deal for $8M plus incentives. He, of course, will be a free agent next year, so this is probably the best the Astros could have (or felt they could have) done.  Personally, I'm happy, as I think Valverde is a quality closer.  Now, if we can just get him some leads to close.....

There remain five other arbitration eligible Astros to be dealt with: Geary, Byrdak, Wandy, Backe, and Quintero. With the possible exception of Wandy, I think I'd be willing to take my chances in arbitration with any or all of them.

Fox News, among others, reporting here that the Clemens case is moving to the next level, that being a Grand Jury investigation into the matters of whether he lied or tried to obstruct justice during his Congressional testimony last year regarding his alleged steroid use.

John Royal, writing in The Houston Press, comments as follows:

"This, of course, isn't good news for the Rocket. The Feds don't take cases to a grand jury unless they're sure they've got the goods. And once the Feds prosecute a case, they've got an estimated 90-percent conviction rate. The burden of proof to get a grand jury to hand down an indictment is a lot less than the "beyond a reasonable doubt" needed to find guilt in a trial. A grand jury just has to find that "is more likely than not" that Rocket lied before Congress and tried to block the investigation. And if the Rocket is convicted, the odds are that he will be doing some jail time.

For those not familiar with how a grand jury works, then let me share with you a saying that I learned at law school: a grand jury will indict a ham sandwich if the prosecutor so instructs. And the odds are the prosecutor will be so instructing when it comes to Rocket. And unlike his appearance before Congress, or in an actual trial, the Rocket's attorney will not be allowed into the grand jury room with the Rocket when the Rocket is issued a subpoena and asked to testify."

And The New York Times adds an even more dour outlook for The Rocket:

"In the case of Clemens, even the statements he made in the last week and a half can be prosecuted, if determined to be false, because lying to a federal agent or a federal authority is a crime. Lying under oath is perjury."

That's the opinion of Jesse Spector, writing in the NY Daily News:

"I generally don't like to take shots at minor moves, and for the most part I don't have to -- most of the time, teams fill their bench with the best players they can find for a low cost. You can see how the player fits into the team's plans, and understand the motivation for both player and team.

None of that is the case for the Astros' signing today, as they brought in outfielder Jason Michaels for one year and $750,000.

Michaels hit .224 this year between Cleveland and Pittsburgh, hitting all eight of his homers with the Pirates. He wasn't good as a pinch-hitter, going 9-for-45 (.200) with two homers, and hit a miserable .187 in 91 at-bats against lefthanders. For his career, Michaels has a .286 average against lefties and has hit .236 with five homers in 255 appearances as a pinch-hitter.

So with Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence starting in Houston's outfield, and Darin Erstad serving as a more versatile fourth outfielder becuase he's a better center fielder and a lefthanded hitter, Michaels' addition as a fifth outfielder with limited pop who struggled against lefthanded pitching this year doesn't make too much sense."

The entire article is at:

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/touchingbase/2008/12/analysis-michaels-an-astro-nom.html

LA has signed Mark Loretta, in my opinion one of the best utility players to ever wear the Astros uniform:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2008/12/dodgers-agree-t.html

But we are getting new grass in the Juice Box. Apparently, there were wear spots where the outfielders "like to stand all the time".  I'm guessing the spot must have been huge out in left field!

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2008/12/08/daily14.html

According to MLB.com, The Tigers' one-year deal with Adam Everett remained an agreement Tuesday rather than an official announcement, still pending a physical. The Tigers seem to be steadfast in their determination to bring about significant changes in their team.  Replacing a position that batted .300 for them last year with Adam Everett might even be considered a "much more than significant" change!  The Astros will see the Tigers at home this year in late June.  It would be interesting to speculate what the odds might be that Everett is still with the team.

Full story at:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081209&content_id=3708429&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp

Perhaps the following, along wth the fact that of the 20 or so friends I know who have season tickets, 14 are not renewing, will hit our owner and self-styled champion right where it matters - in the wallet!

Astros post season of low TV viewership
from the Houston Business Journal, October 15, 2008

   Viewership for Houston Astros games dipped 19 percent in 2008, according to research compiled by the Sports Business Journal.

The Astros averaged about 63,000 households watching each game.

The team finished third in the National League Central division in 2008 at .534 percentage, with 86 wins and 75 losses.

The Washington Nationals continued their four-season streak as the least-watched team in Major League Baseball. The team's viewership was down about 50 percent, the Sports Business Journal found.

For the second straight season, the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets were the top three watched teams, although numbers dipped across the board.

During the regular baseball season, both national and most regional sports networks reported viewer declines.

If you've not been as impressed with Valverde as a closer as his total save numbers and ranking would tell us we should be, then read on.  The text below is from John Dewan's Stat Of The Week, and while it makes another point altogether (with regard to managerial styles and exactly how the closer could be used), it also indicates that when Valverde has been put to the test, he has failed more than other closers, and thus that squeamish feeling we get in the pit of our stomachs when he takes the mound.

STAT OF THE WEEK - ACTA Sports

August 1, 2008 by John Dewan

Does it seem to you, like it seems to me, that the only way managers use their closers these days is to start the ninth inning? Usually the best pitcher on the team is the closer. If I were managing, I'd use him when it matters most, whether that's the ninth inning, eighth inning, or even the sixth inning. For example, it's a key game and we're up 3-2. My starter gets me to the sixth, but he gives up a two-out double to put runners on second and third. I want my best pitcher right there. He's much more valuable there than he would be to protect what might become a three-run lead at the start of the ninth.

But that would be the rare early "closer" appearance. I could see where I'd use the closer often in an eighth-inning tough situation, and often in the ninth after my second or third best reliever got in trouble with a two-run or three-run lead.

For the record, here's the percentage of saves this year where the pitcher enters at the start of the ninth inning (or the start of an extra inning).

Percentage of saves – pitcher enters at the start of the 9th inning (or the start of an extra inning): 82 %

Here are the managers who use their closer most often in the toughest situations (enters the game with the tying run on base):

MLB Closers with Two or More Tough Save Opportunities
Team     Manager                  Closer                 Tough Saves     Tough Save Opps
Marlins     Fredi Gonzalez     Kevin Gregg                   4                 4
Astros     Cecil Cooper        Jose Valverde                 1                 4
Red Sox     Terry Francona    Jonathan Papelbon     3                3
Orioles     Dave Trembley     George Sherrill              2                3
Nationals     Manny Acta       Jon Rauch                      1                 3
Brewers     Ned Yost            Salomon Torres             2                  2
Giants     Bruce Bochy         Brian Wilson                    2                 2
Athletics     Bob Geren     Huston Street                     1                  2

Minimum: 10 Saves
Source: Baseball Info Solutions (through the games of Thursday, July 31, 2008)

That's a quote from Carlos Lee, a couple of days ago here and it's something we've heard Cecil Cooper say over and over again all year.

Apparently, the team is beginning to figure it out.  They have won three of their four series since the All-Star Break, two of them against the Cubs and Brewers, both contending teams.

But wait - there's more!  Since the break, despite winning 3 of 4 series, the Astros have only managed to break even.

Time for a new mantra?

"WE NEED TO WIN GAMES!"

In this week's Houston Business Journal Greg Barr reports, not surprisingly:

Wednesday, July 16, 2008 - 4:23 PM CDT
Astros TV ratings striking out
Houston Business Journal - by Greg Barr
  
The Houston Astros struggles on the baseball diamond are being reflected in declining TV ratings.

According to an analysis of Nielsen Media Research viewership data by the SportsBusiness Journal, Fox SportsNet Southwest, which broadcasts Astros games on a regional basis, has seen a 26 percent ratings decline -- down about 69,000 households -- through the first half of the 2008 season to record a 3.36 share.

That's the fourth-highest ratings decline across Major League Baseball, with only the Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals turning in worse numbers for regional games.

Heading into this week's All-Star break, the Astros were in last place in the National League's Central Division.

Of course, winning certainly helps. The teams with the biggest TV ratings boosts are the resurgent Chicago Cubs, holding down top spot in the NL Central Division, and the Tampa Bay Rays, fighting for first place in the American League East Division with the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox. The Cubs had a 51 percent ratings gain in the first half, while Tampa enjoyed a 31 percent boost.

Overall through the first half of the season, national network broadcasts on Fox and ESPN are down across the board, but television executives expect the numbers to improve in the second half when more Red Sox and New York Yankees games are tossed into the mix.

Articles are all over the place quoting the Astros' "management" team all in the same general vein. "It's too early to give up, we are traditionally a second half team, we can still make a run at it, etc.." ad nauseum.  The facts are that the Astros are in need of a major rehab, and as one prominent rehab organization promotes: "You can't solve the problem, until you get out of denial and admit there is a problem."

If the Astros were to come to the sudden realization that there is indeed a problem, here's my list of goals for the balance of the season.  Please don't laugh out loud, I know as well as you do that none of these will happen - after all, I am the AntiDrayton.

1. Set a modest but attainable goal for team performance.  Shoot for winning 8 of the remaining 12 home series, and 4 of the remaining 9 road series.  Set a goal of 81-81 as a minimum for year end.  Along with this, try to push Mathematical Elimination Night (the date we are eliminated from any playoff hopes) beyond September 10, which is when it currently seems destined to occur.

2. Work with the young players.  The future for the Astros is best served by this strategy, even if the players are developed only to become trade bait, which seems to be the current modus operandi of the "management".  This probably means sending Bourn down to AAA for some development (apparently all of the coaching in the organization  happens at Round Rock and Corpus Christi).  Stay the course with J. R. Towles; he is all we have at the moment, so let's make him the best he can be.  Bring up as many players (one or two at a time) from the minors to give them some experience and see what they may be able to offer in the way of longer term potential.

3. Keep the veteran core. No trading of Pence, Berkman, Lee, Tejada, and Oswalt. The same probably applies for Matsui.  Only Berkman and Pence would really bring anything of value, now that Roy may be damaged goods. And our trading history is a hideous failure.

4. Play Erstad and Loretta a lot. We need them to reach goal #1 and they are steady, dependable, and former All-Stars.  Why should they sit?

5. Quit stealing so many &^%$#!! bases and stop playing small ball.  Did we really load up the lineup with all that (supposed) power only to bunt and steal Michael Bourn every time he gets on base?  Here's the handwriting on the wall, in simplest terms:  Over the past 5 years there has been a negative team correlation (both NL and AL) between total runs scored and total stolen bases. There are are mounds of other data to support this - small ball yields small results!

6. Sharpen up some fundamentals.  Base running, fielding, and hitting the right cutoff man would be great places to start.

7. Examine Cooper's contract with a microscope.  There must be some way to get rid of him before his two years are up without bringing the wrath of the Commissioner and prominent activist groups down upon the team. Cooper seems like a genuinely good guy, but he may also be genuinely the worst manager I've ever seen.

Please feel free to add any of your own and reject any or all of mine - it doesn't matter, because as I mentioned above these don't have a snowball's chance anyway.

Did you know that during the last month (June 8-July 8), only five  National League teams have a winning percentage of .500 or better?

They are:

Milwaukee (.593)

Chicago (.577)

New York (.536)

Los Angeles (.519)

St. Louis (.500)

It was a great opportunity to do some catching up, albeit that 3 of the 5 teams playing .500 or better were in our division. One thing for sure, it would have been embarrassing to be the worst team in the league during that period!

And the worst team in the league during that time?

Houston (.296), and on the verge of being swept in Pittsburgh.

Baseball is not a complex game - you hit, you pitch, you field the ball - do it well and you win, do it poorly and you lose.  Such is the way with the Astros - they aren't hitting well, they aren't batting well, and no amount of fielding, however good (and the Astros are only average) can overcome that.

Let's look at the hitting.  Here are the Astros individual OBPs.  These stats are current as of mid-day on June 20th, taken from the Astros website:

Astros "regulars" OBPs for the last 30 days (remember, NL average is around .333)

Wigginton .440, Berkman .415, Bourne .347, NL AVERAGE .333, Ausmus .315, Lee .297, Pence .269, Matsui .275, Tejada .243

Astros "subs' OBPs:

Erstad .368, NL AVERAGE .333, Loretta .321, Towles (just for comparison to Q) .320, Blum .300, Quintero .154.

BATTING SUMMARY: 3 of 8 regulars above the NL average, 1 of 4 subs above the average .  POOR!  And we sent Towles (.356 OBP, .803 OPS, 2HR at Round Rock) down to get Quintero?

Now for the pitching. Here are the OBPs allowed by Astros pitchers for the past 30 days:

STARTERS: Moehler .295, Rodriguez .323, NL AVERAGE .333, Oswalt .345, Chacon .348, Backe .352

RELIEVERS: Sampson .232, Brocail .227, Villareal .306, Wright .333, NL AVERAGE .333, Byrdak .340, Geary .400, Valverde .400

PITCHING SUMMARY: 2 of 5 starters better than league average, half of relievers better than average.  The pitching is BELOW AVERAGE to MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, especially when one learns that the innings pitched have favored the pitchers with higher OBPs allowed.

So despite whatever damage may have been done by Cooper's lineups and in game decisions (and I think in general they have hurt more than helped), there's nothing magic than can be done - except that the players need  to start hitting and start pitching.  Nothing much will improve until they do. 

It's a simple game!

That's been the whine on more than several occasions by our radio and TV announcers, and even once or twice by our manager and our GM.  The allegation is that the Astros have been the victims of a tough early season schedule that has forced them to play 37 road games thus far as opposed to only 24 at home.

It is true that one of the most significant variables in a team's performance is its home and away schedule.  Only three major league teams - St. Louis, Arizona, and the LA Angels - currently have a better than .500 record on the road.  Seems like the Astros might have caught a tough break, but exactly how tough has it really been?

The Astros have played 37 games on the road at a .432 winning percentage, and 24 at home at a .625 clip.  What if the schedule had been perfectly balanced?  It's an easy calculation (30.5 games X .432 plus 30.5 games X .625) and the result is:

Astros' current record: 31-30.

Astros record if the home-away schedule had been balanced: 32-29  (32.2-28.8 if you are into decimals).

My conclusion - every game is important and yes, the schedule has probably cost us one win, but the schedule will even out, and  there's no case at all that the schedule imbalance has been much of a factor.

The answer is an unqualified "Yes!", at least according to SportingNews.Com's Gerry Fraley, who writes in an article posted today:

"About three years ago, Oswalt began gradually changing his approach from that of a strikeout pitcher to a pitch-to-contact pitcher. To Oswalt, it meant self-preservation at the expense of strikeouts. Fewer strikeouts would mean fewer pitches. Fewer pitches would mean more fuel in the tank during the season.

"My biggest thing is to get deep into the game," Oswalt says. "Strikeouts are nice, but usually if you strike out guys you last only five or six innings. Some of those young guys who strike out a lot of people now, once they start doing that year after year, they'll slow down."

The change also has meant fewer high and riding four-seam fastballs, a power pitch, and more sinking two-seam fastballs, which produce grounders. In the process, Oswalt's four-seamer lost a bit of velocity.

His strikeout rate has dropped annually, falling to a career-low 6.51 per nine innings this season. Against the Cardinals on Thursday, Oswalt could not put away hitters at a vital junction, even with the count in his favor."

Much of this has already been discussed at The Crawfish Boxes in several previous posts, but my concern is that the if Sporting News is noticing, then it must be pretty obvious to just about everyone!  Roy is an upper echelon major league pitcher and I have every confidence he'll get back to "normal" before this season is over, regardless of what he may be trying with his pitching style.  Fraley's criticism of Oswalt's most recent performance seems overly harsh to me, in light of the fact that Oswalt delivered a quality start last night against a very good team.  Had the bats produced a measly 4 runs in total, it wouldn't even be an item and we might even be hearing about Roy returning to form.

You can read the entire article at:

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=417886

From John Dewan's ACTA Sports Stat Of The Week newsletter:

Watch 60 Minutes this Sunday night (March 30). Morley Safer and the 60 Minutes crew interviewed Bill James over the course of three days at spring training a couple of weeks ago, and the segment is airing this Sunday. I think it will be fascinating for those of us who are into sabermetrics.

Chris Burke, one of my favorite ex-Astros is having an excellent camp with the Dbacks.  In 20 games, he has put up some impressive offensive stats, among them an OPS of 1.164, OBP of .439, along with a BA of .362 and a Slugging Pct. of .724.  He has hit 4 home runs.

I was disappointed he didn't do well with the Astros and certainly understood the decision to trade him, but I hope he has hit his stride and will develop into a solid major league player.

are the subject of this article in today's Chronicle:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/5508779.html

Admittedly, it is full of the kind of fluff that we typically see just before spring training, but it is interesting nevertheless.

Ensberg agrees to deal with Yankees.
By The Associated Press
01/31/2008 11:24:55 PM MST

Morgan Ensberg agreed to a minor-league contract with the New York Yankees, giving the team another contender to play first base.

Ensberg would get a $1.75 million, one-year contract if added to the 40-man roster and would have a chance to earn $2.25 million more in performance bonuses. He would get the full amount if he has 525 plate appearances. Ensberg batted .230 with 12 home runs and 39 RBIs last season with the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres.