Draftexpress has been rolling out some alternative stats, including +/-, for college players.  Here is a table of prospects sorted by team defensive performance with/without the players.  The positive numbers at the top of the list are worst, the negative at the bottom are best. 

All the usual caveats about relying on +/-, especially unadjusted, and perhaps even moreso at the college level, BUT--Wall is in some very good company, with an extraordinary -7.4.  That figure puts him among players with very good defensive reps, such as Greg Monroe, Derrick Favors, Al-farouq Aminu, and Hassan Whiteside.  This part of the list is heavy on potentially game-changing big men, though there are some other PGs/combo guards in the general vicinity (including Jon Scheyer, which is itself probably a good caveat).

One interesting note is that Eric Bledsoe, Wall's primary backup, fares very poorly by this measure.  (Incidentally, there are many other stat areas where Bledsoe fares poorly--I would not want the Wiz picking him, even if he slides to 35 and even if the team weren't already picking a PG.)  Assuming Wall is a good defender and Bledsoe is a bad one, they may have been driving each others' stats to greater extremes.  Cousins and Patterson both come out in negative (good) territory, but nowhere near Wall.

Seeing this from the Agent Steinz sparked me to wonder how much recent rookies, especially point guards, have contributed to their teams in their first seasons.  (Click here to see a table of year-after comparisons compiled by the NBA.  Given the Ewing Theory popularized by Bill Simmons, it is particularly funny to see that the Knicks were worse in their first year with Ewing.)  The Bog post took the approach of looking at how much the bad teams who got to pick first actually improved.  I'm interested in how much responsibility the rookies may have had for that change.  After the jump is a (simplified) look.

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Outside of the two worst teams in the league,* the top competitors for draft lottery tickets are down to four games to play, and things are still incredibly tightly packed.  The Wizards could yet end up with a decent chance at a top-2 pick (or mathematically, anyway--that doesn't account for the bad luck), or could slide far enough to become a fairly long shot.

Nets 11-67

Minn 4 GB

GS 13 GB

Sac 13 GB

Wiz 13 GB

Det 14 GB

Philly 15 GB

LAC 16 GB

So, the Wizards are clearly still within striking difference to get the third most lottery combinations.  With only 4 games left to play, it probably isn't realistic to think that they could fall as far as 8th, past the Clippers.  The Wiz would have to win out, with the Clippers losing out.  We certainly can't rule out, though, that they could fall past the Sixers, into 7th.  And 6th is all-too-easily achievable, requiring only two wins.  (Keep in mind that if two teams tie, they each get the average of the number of combinations for the two slots, with that coin flip to allocate the last combination where there is an odd number available.

The remaining schedule has the Wizards at Boston, home against Atlanta for the second half of a back-to-back, then at NY, and finishing home against Indiana.  All of those are losable.  Indiana could be the most winnable game, but the Pacers have been fairly hot down the stretch, and are 8-2 over their last 10.

This seems to be shaping up to be a draft with a clear top-2,** followed by a second tier of big men (Cousins/Favors/Aldrich/Davis) and a couple of small forwards (Aminu/Johnson).  Here are the chances of getting a the top pick out of the slots the Wiz could see:

3rd:  15.6%

4th:  11.9%

5th:  8.8%

6th:  6.3%

7th:  4.3%

8th:  2.8%

The potential impact of these last four games is even more obvious when looking at the odds of getting a top-2 pick out of each slot:

3rd:  31.3%

4th:  24.5%

5th:  18.5%

6th:  13.4%

7th:  9.2%

8th:  6.1%

Yes, being in 3rd or 4th still means the team very likely won't be in the top 2, but the odds are far better there than in 6th or 7th.  And, this year, that could just be a one or two win difference.

Of course, at the moment, Golden State, Sacramento, and the Wizards would have to share the combinations for the 3rd, 4th, and 5th slots, essentially giving them each the odds associated with the 4th slot.  

The wild finish for playoff seeding in the West has gotten a lot of attention, but some teams with dismal seasons could see their odds of moving up in the draft change significantly over the last week.

* It is kind of amazing to think that, as bad as the Wiz have been, there are two teams who have been that much worse.  New Jersey and Minny have 13 and 9 fewer wins respectively.

** After seeing much more of Wall since my comments on Wall/Turner on Rook's prospect profiles, I've come around more to Wall.  I still wish his j were farther along and that he would have turned the ball over less, considering the talent he had to pass to and that he'll have to be a PG, but.....I am coming around more to him over Turner.  I'd still be very tempted to go with Turner though.

Editor's Note, by bwoodsxyz: This is the first installment in what I expect to be an occasional series on NBA team construction.  This column takes a look back at the Big 3 concept that was used in DC over the last half-decade before we turn to looking forward at the potential direction of the franchise.  The plan is for the next installment to look more generally at how top-heavy recent successful teams have been, and how those franchises brought in their top talent.

The earliest mention I've been able to find of the term "Big Three" used in reference to basketball was as a moniker for Bob Cousy-Ed Macauley-Bill Sharman on the 1954 Celtics.  Boston, LA, and St. Louis, among others, had Big Threes in the 50s and 60s.  Since those 80s Celtics teams, "Big Three" got tossed around for the Jordan-Pippen-Rodman and Jordan-Pippen-Kukoc Bulls, among others.  Some of the more prominent recent Big Three were the Kidd-Jefferson-Carter Nets and the Garnett-Pierce-Allen Celtics.

I don't recall ever hearing the term used on any Bullets-Wizards combinations over the years, and I've been unable to turn up any news references.  I'd be very interested to hear from anyone who remembers it having been used for this franchise.  (One wonders what could-have-been for the Chris Webber-Rasheed Wallace-Juwan Howard combo had it been kept together beyond 95-96.  I'd managed to forget just how young that group was.  They were all 22 or younger.  They had some very good supporting pieces.....)  Moving on to the Wizards, after the jump.

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The Wizards have 31 games left, following their win over Minny.  I keep hearing and reading that they "may not win another game."  Surely that's hyperbole.  But add to that all of the apparently serious statements along the lines of Wilbon's, and it may be getting a little ridiculous.  I was inclined to save this for Wednesday, but I've gotten irritated enough with those comments that I decided to take a look and post it now--what is a reasonable guess for how bad they'll actually be?

Let me preface this by saying that, as a fan, I'm torn as to what I'd like to see happen.  I still hope for the best for Blatche and McGee, want to see Miller not have to suffer too much, am very interested to see if Singleton can get an opportunity and produce as he's shown glimpses of, etc., and, it is always more fun to watch and write about wins than losses.  On the other hand, Evan Turner.  Or John Wall.   That said:

Win Shares is, I think the best shorthand for doing this.  It is obviously imperfect at judging the past, much less predicting the future, but I've yet to see a better single stat for summarizing.  (Adjusted +/- is great, but how do you predictably and simply translate that to collective production?)  Since we are in-season, I'll just assume players' productivity rates remain the same as they've been thus far.  

There are 31 games left.  I'll assume playing time breaks down this way per game, and won't assume any injuries:

Foye 29, Boykins 19, Miller 34, Young 15, Howard 29, Ross 11, Thornton 18, Singleton 22, Blatche 32, McGee 23, Oberto 7.  

Applying their rates of WS this season to those minutes, we can project:

Foye 1.3 WS

Boykins 0.8

Miller 3.0

Young 0.3

Howard 0.7

Ross 0.3

Thornton 0.7

Singleton 0.6

Blatche 1.6

McGee 1.4

Oberto 0.1

TOTAL:  10.8 WS.  Or, roughly 11 projected wins.  McGee looks way better under WS than under +/-, which better accounts for his defensive issues, while, on the other hand, several of the players are producing under what their career figures suggest are possible.  Maybe that's a wash (or maybe this team will get brutalized on the pick-and-roll every night for the remainder of the season).

Another way of looking at it is that the pre-trades lineup (after Arenas was lost and since Miller came back) was 6-10.  They subtracted two of the more productive players, who were both at the 4/5 (Haywood and Jamison), but WS doesn't view Blatche/McGee and some Singleton/Thornton as quite as big a downgrade as you might expect.  Meanwhile, Howard is a slight downgrade from Butler, but not much of one, and Singleton, extra Miller time, etc., is probably an upgrade.  On net, this team looks maybe two games worse over that type of period, leaving us in roughly the same place--this looks essentially like a team that would play .333 ball.

BUT, there is a huge caveat to be mentioned:  the remaining schedule could be devastating, with 21 games left against teams with records .500 or better.  They have 15 home games.  Only 5 of the home games are against sub-.500 teams.  So, they probably won't be able to cost themselves many ping-pong balls unless Howard turns back the clock and the younger guys respond very well to their opportunities.  And even then, the schedule will make it hard to make much headway in the standings.  That's probably just as well, given the ping-pong ball quest, but I hope it doesn't unduly color the perception of however the team actually performs (and individuals perform) over the remainder of the season.

As I'm writing this, we're all still checking the rumors, waiting for the other shoe to drop on the trade front.  Or not.  Or is it shoes, plural? 

In the meantime, let's take a look at the trade that has actually been completed, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, and Deshawn Stevenson for Drew Gooden, Josh Howard, James Singleton, and Quinton Ross.  But, instead of analyzing it as an "NBA Trade", with concerns of salary cap space, luxury tax, franchise financial health, ownership situations, cap-friendliness of contracts, etc., etc., etc., what if we suspend disbelief (and ignore the part of this where certain guys may never actually suit up for their new teams), and just look at the players involved, with particular attention to the incoming players who have the best chance of being here for the rest of this year, and maybe even going forward.

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I've been working on some very long posts on the Big 3, roster construction in general, and some related stuff, but they may not see the light of day anytime soon.  In the meantime, what are you interested in reading about in the Wednesday column the next couple weeks?  I'm assuming that will be impacted by what, if anything, else happens in the next few days, but assuming it goes quietly, then what?

Any of these interest you?

• Profile James Singleton (too old to be a "prospect," but perhaps more useful than is obvious from his reputation)
• How this team, with no major FAs and an Arenas/Jamison core, could compete for an 8th seed next year (more mediocrity! so soon!), without mortgaging the future.  Seriously.
• More of these (expanded/advanced box scores)
• Draft/d-league prospects
• Second/Third-tier FAs

There has developed a notion around this Wizards team that their season has perhaps been derailed as much by an inability to "win close games" as by suspension, injury, or just generally not being very good.  With last night's loss, the Wizards have now lost 9 games decided by three points or less.  Evaluating the team as one that just needs a few more points in a few more games is, however, off base.

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Last week, we featured some of Brendan Haywood's very impressive defensive numbers, and also mentioned some of those posted by Andray Blatche.  But what about the team's very young big-man prospect, Javale McGee?

Last season, his reputation was as someone maybe even more physically gifted than expected, but who wasn't yet advanced enough to do the sorts of things to enter the palace of good play.  This season, he hasn't seen the floor enough to change any judgments, and what he's done while he's been on the court hasn't helped his cause either.

This seems to be a situation where the numbers back up the reputation.  The stats, and some thoughts on his future, after the jump.

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Having happened to completely neglect +/- during this season, at the same time that TrueHoop and others have been promoting it more than ever, no less, I set out this week to look at what can be learned from the team's +/- figures for the year to date.  Particularly because of the small sample sizes resulting from having only a part of a season to work with, the data should be taken with a grain of salt (or, better yet, a few more grains than with some of the other in-season data).  But, that said, perhaps the most surprising thing about the +/- on the team is how unsurprising it is on the whole.  For example, Miller/Haywood = good, Foye/Boykins = not so much.  There are a couple of surprises, however.  Some breakdown of the +/-‘s, as well as a look at some of the Gilbert-less lineups we've seen this season, after the jump.

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Entering this year, we knew that usage and touches could become an issue with Gilbert Arenas's return and the installation of Flip Saunders' offense.  Caron Butler's numbers have suffered some this year, and it has been suggested that the cause is at least in part that Gilbert is stealing Caron's opportunities.

Just compared to 08-09, of course Gilbert's return has had an impact on how much Caron gets the ball and uses possessions.  On the other hand, Caron's performance has declined somewhat from last year's level, but has declined much further from his 05-06 and 06-07 levels, when he was playing alongside Gilbert.  Given the choice, that 05-07 Caron is the one the team wants, not the guy who was trying to carry a bad team last year. 

Taking this longer view, and comparing the numbers, it does not appear that Caron's lost touches are the result of a Gilbert-Caron imbalance, and probably not (at least not entirely) an issue of Flip's offense.  Rather, it seems that the cause is a significant shift in the type of bench players on the team.  So, Caron, don't blame Gilbert (for this particular issue), blame Earl and Randy (and maybe Ernie).  The numbers, after the jump.

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It was understood going into the season that the 09-10 Wizards team would rely heavily on its jumpshooting.  To a roster of players that already relied heavily on Js, particularly of the two-point variety, were added Mike Miller and Randy Foye. 

The conventional wisdom on J-heavy teams is that they will be inconsistent from game to game, and quarter to quarter, depending on how many shots are falling.  Pairing that up with a good, consistent defense can bring some measure of consistency, but that would probably be a bit much to ask from this team, right?  So the thinking was instead that this team has so many (potentially) effective shooters at so many positions that while it would lay the occasional egg, there would be more good nights than bad.  Obviously, that hasn't quite worked out.

How many Js go up, how few go in, and some related comments on the team's defense and pace, all after the jump.

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Editor's Note: Welcome back, bwoodsxyz!

When following a 7-15 team, there is always the risk that what seem like legitimate reasons for hope--that the season can and will be salvaged and that all is not yet lost--are just delusion.  And, when those reasons are based purely on the numbers, well, you know what Mark Twain said.

That said, in surveying some of the most basic numbers surrounding this Wizards team (no advanced stats requried), there are some that make it seem reasonable enough to think/hope/dream that this could yet unfold into an exciting, if still short of contending, season.

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 Here is the four factors individual player box score for last night's game, including the Cleveland side of things.

Four Factors Box Score 11-3 at CLE

No column this afternoon, but I'm working on putting together cumulative stats to date using the information collected.  Some of my notes on the box appear after the jump.

For more background on how these boxes work, go here and here:

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Tracked both teams, but only bothering with posting the (very nice looking) Wizards' side of the box.

Four Factors Wiz Box 10-31 versus Nets

Continue on for a few observations about last night's box and also for the Wiz portion of the box from the loss to the Hawks (thanks go to Rook for tracking that one).

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Four Factors Box Score Opening Night

For general explanation, see the prior post.  I'll skip commenting on the contents of this box.  (I will, however, try to answer any questions in the comments.) 

Instead, a few notes on format and method.

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Of course one of the worst abuses of stats in sports is to draw unwarranted conclusions based on too small sample sizes.  Except when your team wins its opening game.  That, of course, is the BEST.  So, without further ado, we can conclude based on last night that:

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I'm still doing some minor tweaking to the defensive FG component of the expanded box score, really just in how broadly to use "half" credits. The other big open item to me, though, is format of the box score itself.  Is it better to put all of the offensive categories to one side, as I've done previously, or would it be better to pair up the counterpart stats (e.g., FG/3pt next to DFG/D3pt, turnovers next to turnovers forced, etc.)?  I think pairing them off might make it easier to eyeball a player's net contribution in that phase of the game.

Votes and comments are welcome.

This was added late to the preseason stats column:

                                                                  Player                                        +/-          Minutes

Some notes (while repeating the caveat that it is very early for +/-):

• Yes, Oberto is +19, but also of note is that he is +40 as a starter and - 21 coming off the bench. Perhaps his defense and passing brings a spark in combination with the starters that is wasted with the other reserves?
• Blatche was on the floor for the worst stretch of the Toronto game, the worst stretch of the Detroit game, and enough of the Atlanta game to hurt.  He posted positives in the Memphis and Cleveland games.
• Several players would be in positive category if it weren't for the Atlanta game.  Foye, Stevenson, Butler, and Haywood are all dragged down by their part in that.
• I didn't expect to see McGee third on this list, did you?
• Is Miller lucky to have missed the Atlanta game, or was the game such a wreck in part because of his absence?

(bwoods note:  after +/- was raised by Manimal in the Sixers game wrap comments, I went back and did the math on individual +/-, which has been added to the end of the post.  While it is very early to put too much weight on this sort of thing, the results are enough to make me pull the Blatche Bandwagon over and put it in park for a while.  And, if Jamison isn't ready for the start of the season, should Oberto be the starting PF?)

While I continue working through incorporating the many good comments to last week's Expanded Four Factors Box Score and finalize the rules that will be applied for tracking once the season kicks off, this week we'll take a look at what notable numbers the guys have posted so far this preseason.

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While the discussion continues in the comments of the original expanded/four factors stats post, below is the expanded Wizards half of the box score for the 10/14 Wiz-Cavs game and a few comments.   

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NBA stats have some definite, huge holes, particularly on the defensive end.  It has always been that way.  But does it have to be?  I say no.

After the jump is an analysis of where the stats are lacking, a proposal of ways to give fans more and better information in looking at individual player performance, and an application of the new stats to the Friday (10/9) Wiz-Mavs game, with an expanded box score.

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(bwoods note:  Of course True Hoop ran this really interesting piece on the Cuban Mavs' stat guru right after I posted)

As you probably saw, Prada turned up a provocative quote from the Ernie Grunfeld presser this week, on the subject of the team's use of "advanced stats."  Then came Flip on charting plays.  All of this begs the questions-what are teams doing with "advanced stats"?  And, more basically, what does that phrase even mean?

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Editor's Note: Bwoodsxyz writes a weekly stat-oriented column for Bullets Forever.  It appears every Wednesday at noon.

In a time when everyone and their grandmother seems to play fantasy football and there seems to be as many words spent on MLB fantasy as MLB, fantasy hoops just seems to lag, even among the hoops faithful.

This issue pops up from time to time, and BDL recently ran a guest column on it that caught my attention.

There are a lot of problems with making the NBA work in fantasy.*  As the start of a thought experiment, I'm going to run through the issues involved in having an NBA fantasy league, make my suggestion for each, and see what comes out the other end.**  I know I'm going to miss some problems and come up with stupid solutions to others, so, please consider this a "first draft", and have at it in the comments, and, if it goes well, I'll produce a revised Bullets Forever fantasy hoops manifesto as the work of the community.  I know we have a good variety of perspectives contributing on this site, and maybe even some folks who have figured out how to make things work, so this should be interesting.

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As discussed some last week, PGs have generally seen a boost to their assist numbers and a slight drop in their turnovers compared to their career figures when playing for Flip.  I'm not sure you can say that Flip "changes" his PGs in other ways.  Which might be for the best.  Some more discussion of Flip's past PGs, a comparison to the EJ PG experience, and some predictions for Flip's impact are below.

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I've been working on breaking down the stats produced by Flip's point guards over the years. 

I'm still working on drawing conclusions and applying them to Arenas/Critt/Foye/James.  In the meantime, the list of the point guards Flip spent the most time with and some observations after the jump. 

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