Something I love doing is tracking minor league players month-to-month. Yes, I comb through the box scores every night before I go to bed. However, I think there is something to seeing the monthly splits every thirty days. I believe shows the players' progression throughout the season and for me, it's exciting. So, as I did last year and a little the year before I'll be doing monthly summaries on all the minor league affiliates. Along with this comes a little bit of hardware for the top bat and arm on each team. I am posting these separate for each level because I am starting out a little ambitious. I think I have enough to say about each team to necessitate having four separate fanposts. We will see how where I'm at after I write a couple of these though.

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Lexington is the final team requiring a preview. Houston's best prospects are still young and at the lower levels. So, it may be true that the best as been saved for last. Like most of this series, although especially the case of the AA and High A affiliates, Lexington is the home of many prospects worth noting and watching this season. No reason to quit wasting time...

Lexington

Offensive Player of the Year: Delino DeShields

It's tough to pick against the favorite and Houston's top positional prospect, although there are a multitude of players who will compete. My confidence in DeShield's first full season is due the possibility of he having an advanced bat despite being so young. DeShields has the ability to hit for a good average, steal plenty of bases and maybe show a little power as well. He reminds me a lot of Austin Wates, only less polish and more upside. DeShields however, could struggle if he proves to have less plate discipline than I to start. Mike Kvasincka may be the top contender to battle DeShields. Drafted out of the Big Ten, Kvasincka should also carry an advanced approach at the plate. with ample supposed power potential. Kvasincka struggled in his debut last summer, so there's potential that he'd struggle this season too. Also, if he succeeds and performs well he could be ripe for a promotion to high A, being older than some others in the South Atlantic League. Two dark horses I like are Jiovanni Mier and Telvin Nash. Mier is, of course, the former first rounder who struggled a little last year. He may be the example of how DeShields' season could fail--as it seemed Mier had an advanced approach to the plate before last season... and he still couldn't put up great numbers in the SAL. I expect Mier to get back on track with his repeat season. It'd be nice to see some power in his bat along with reduced strikeouts and improved on base skills. Nash has perhaps the best power int he organization. He spent last spring in extended Spring training. However, the training wheels are off and Nash is facing his first full season.

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First of all, Happy Birthday to my idol, Brandon Backe.

Now to business...

This is the third installment of the "Minor League Preview." Welcome to the launch-pad of Lancaster; home of many of Houston's most exciting prospects--mostly batters. It is difficult to evaluate the prospects in Lancaster based on statistical merits. I feel bad for these prospects. Even if they do have fantastic years at the plate, those seasons will be at least partially explained by the ballpark. However, a good number of the bats on this team are facing critical years in their development. Here's a peak at what we can expect...

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Yesterday I looked over the AAA roster, today I'm looking at Corpus Christi where there are more prospect types. I am really intrigued by this roster, should be extremely interesting.

Corpus Christi

Offensive Player of the Year: J.D. Martinez

Tough not to pick Martinez here. He finished 2010 in AA and held his own, although with decreased power. He has an advanced bat, especially in comparison to the other names here. Speaking of which: T.J. Steele's return to the Hooks may be the most interesting. He's performed well in the sparse time he's been healthy and had some success this spring. However, he needs to finally put together a healthy season. He has plenty of tools, so if he can stay in the lineup he could move up the prospect rankings. Jon Gaston struggled last year after out slugging the rest of the minors in 2009. He's returning to the Hooks to prove he isn't merely a product of the Cal League. It'll be interesting to see which of the outfielders are promoted first, if any. Hopefully they are all pushing for AAA jobs by June. Jimmy Paredes' inclusion on the roster was almost a head-scratcher. If only because he was placed at Lexington after being traded last summer. Meanwhile Jonathan Villar was placed at Lancaster around the same time and now is returning to Lancaster... interesting. Paredes has plenty of talent and has the opportunity to "..." this season.

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Today, I looked over the minor league rosters Brian McTaggert released on his blog. Overall, I'm a little disappointed many prospects are repeating levels they were at the majority of last year. Now, I understand this is as much the fault of the prospects themselves, as the front office for being a little less than aggressive... and for the time being I'll just have to deal with it. I was interested to see how the Astros dealt with a couple of positional overlaps, i.e. DeSheilds and Enrique Hernandez, both of whom played short-season ball last season; Mike Kvasincka and Jonathan Meyer, one an "advanced bat" who could of possibly been pushed to high A in his debut and the other being a young player who struggled at Lexington in 2010; finally, Jonathan Villar and Jiovanni Mier, Mier who struggled in Lexington last season and Villar who struggled in high A and both being young. Not to mention. the bunches of OFers Houston has throughout the system. However, there is no reason to further speculate. The rosters are released, if not "official" on the team pages. It is now time to access and speculate how each will fair and how each prospect will handle their assignment. First up is the new AAA affiliate--we'll miss you Round Rock.

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Not the real Opening Day, but it was the first game for [our] Astros--and what a game it was. I'll make my introductions short. Introductions, nay, this will be more of a disclaimer, necessary information. I'm from Syracuse, NY and I'm an Astros fan. Many ask me why, it's simple, I grew up while the Astros had two of the most compelling and charismatic players in baseball. Biggio and Bagwell made me love baseball. Anyone who wants to make fun of me for being an a fan of this team can, in my lifetime, they've earned my fan-hood. The point is, in Syracuse it is rare I get to enjoy Astros games live on tv... I'm left with gameday, recaps and boxscores. However, this year I have MLB extra innings. So, I'll be able to watch many games this season, which I'm giddy for. It also allows me to journal my observations on a regular basis. So, as promised, my thoughts on the first game of the season...

• The movement on Halladay's stuff--is filthy! Just reiterating. His 2-seamer, cutter and curveball were all on point today. He was dealing. And yet... the Astros beat him. Houston's lineup did enough to win that game; they faced the best in the NL and ended on top. They just couldn't finish it. Consider me: encouraged.
• Brandon Lyon was... well, bad from the moment he got in there. He never seemed comfortable and I knew from his first batter that this game wouldn't end pretty. It was ultimately heart-breaking, but I wasn't surprised. I'd love to see someone like Melancon or Lopez grow into the ninth inning spot, but I know this transition will be slow, unless Lyon does this several more times in the next couple weeks. In Lyon's defense, it was a very high pressure situation on opening day and it is only one blown save--so far--but it's his job to deal with the pressure. I just think he's more suited in the seventh or eighth.
• Brett Myers is a great starting pitcher. Maybe too obvious of a statement, but he's making last year not look like a fluke and that's necessary. He pitched great through five innings or so. Then started to struggle, despite a low pitch count. He didn't have many swing-and-misses and [consequently] no strikeouts. However, in his defense, he didn't have his curveball, his best pitch, all night. So, I have to be satisfied with his ability to get so many guys out despite this--pitch-to-contact, it’s always worked for the Cardinals. So, despite Myer's great start, he could be better when his curveball is on... awesome! Props to the defense as well.
• I am less worried about Brett Wallace... and more about Chris Johnson. What a reversal from last year, right? Wallace looked like a professional out there today. Patient at the plate, in control, slapped a ball to the opposite field, looked good on defense--I couldn't ask for more. I like his game, especially his poise. On the other hand, I didn't see any big negatives from Johnson, but he worries me a little. His discipline is the cause and I feel like his average could take a big slip as well. These two were being touted as potential difference makes during the ESPN telecast and it’s absolutely true. Hopefully both will take steps further forward.
• Hunter looks hungry. I know he always plays at full speed and is always going to take great hacks. So, this is always true. But, I believe it’s even more the truth this season. He wants to put this team on his back. I expect huge numbers from him and an MVP run--am I sounding like a homer yet? I just hope his eagerness doesn't to a drop in on-base percentage and rise in K's. 
• Quintero looks adequate. He did a lot in this game to convince me that he'll be just fine as the catcher three-five games a week. He did some really good things out there both behind the plate and at it. I'm a big Towles advocate, I think he deserves another shot, but Quintero was very good.
• The Phillies' lineup doesn't look elite. There's not a player on that team I truly fear. Howard will have his moments this season, but he's no longer the animal he used to be. The rest of this lineup is just meh though. The pitching better shutdown every offense, I don't think this team will score runs... at least till Utley gets healthy and/or Howard and Rollins recapture their past forms.

Those are my quick notes on the first game of the season. I'm excited for more baseball. I look forward to seeing the Astros more than ever before and being a more active member of this community.

Jason Castro has hit .282/.389/.362 for AAA Round Rock this season in 188 ABs. He's recovered after a terrible April, in which he hit .226/.388/.245. Houston's catchers have not produced offensively thus far this season and J.R. Towles is well, irrelevant. He's an on-base machine and despite his lack of power production, he would be an asset in the lineup and behind the plate. His power numbers have also slowly increased each month. So, my question: When will we finally see Castro in an Astros uniform and starting for them???

As a secondary subject: Why haven't the Astros called up several of Castro's teammates who are excelling at Round Rock?

Chris Johnson .341/.371/.605

Jason Bourgeois .350/.398/.489

Brian Bogusevic .285/.341/.435

Surely these three would be adequate replacements for Pedro Feliz, Corey Sullivan and Jason Michaels.

I get excited about some crazy things... like the minor league season that starts up tomorrow. So, in my anxious anticipation, I've written up my thoughts about each of the Astros' minor league affiliates.

Round Rock Express (AAA)

The big name in Round Rock is Jason Castro, the Astros' top prospect and number ten pick overall in 2008. He had a terrific spring, just losing the major league starting catcher job to the older J.R. Towles. I fully expect, however, Castro to hold that position by the middle of June. Castro is an elite defensive catcher with good on-base skills, many people are done on his ability to hit for power, but I bet he's able to hit plenty of doubles with maybe 15-20 HRs annually (sounds a little like Biggio in that regard, without the speed though).

The Round Rock infield consists of Chris Shelton 1B, Edwin Matsonet UTIL, Drew Meyer 2B, among others. Maysonet got plenty of looks in Houston last season and in spring training this year. He's a utility infielder at the major league level. Due to his ability to play SS, there is a chance he could become more valuable to Houston than Jeff Keppinger. Shelton is older, not a prospect, has some power, but has already had his chances with the Tigers. Drew Meyer is interesting. He had a good season with Corpus Christi last season, gets on base, but is an older prospect.

The RR outfield draws more intigue than the infield. It consists of former pitcher and first round pick, Brian Bogusevic, Colin DeLome and (An)Drew Locke. Locke, like Meyer, is an older prospect, he was picked up from the Dodgers during the minor league phase of the rule V draft before last season. He absolutely crushed the ball in AA in 2009. He hit .338 with a .920 OPS (20 HRs/31doubles). He'll also play first base. Bogusevic will repeat AAA after having a mediocre 2009, his first full season as an outfielder. He has the potential to be an average to above-average defender in CF/RF and could provide some average on-base skills and speed. His power isn't great, however. DeLome is the guy with the most upside, due to ample supplies of both power and speed. In AA last season he hit 20 HRs and stole 15 bases, but struck out 141 times and only hit for a .255 ave. and .323 OBP. If he can improve his pitch recognition and patience he could develop into a special player. He's not extremely old for a prospect (he'll be 24 all of this season), but he still has a very raw hit tool. He'll also be only be able to play LF.

Wesley Wright and Polin Trinidad (both LH starters) are the two pitchers to watch. Wright's transition as a starter has been well documented and he is no longer a prospect, obviously. However, Trinidad has always been a bit of an underrated prospect, being a LH pitchability guy. He's had success at pretty much every level though. Casey Daigle made some noise in spring training and Wilton Lopez and Evan Engelbrook are a pair of reliever (Lopez will be one at the ML level) who could make their way to Houston at some point.

Corpus Christi Hooks (AA)

AA also seems to be the place for top prospects. Strasburg was sent to AA rather than AAA. Jason Castro started last season in AA. AAA is for veterans who are already to be placed on a ML bench. AA is where top prospects mash and throw filthy pitches. This is certainly the case for The Hooks in 2010. The big name is Jordan Lyles. Lyles is a RH SP and won't turn 20 until October. The Astros brass has decided to have him skip the launching pad of Lancaster. It's a risky move. AA hitting is much MUCH better than high A batting, but if anyone is up to it, it's Lyles. Lyles struck out 167 batters in Lexington last season, walking only 38 in 144.2 innings. He also only gave up five homeruns all year. Lyles is a very advanced pitcher for his age, his success is mostly due to his fastball command. He throws both a 4 and 2-seam fastball in the low 90s, along with a cutter, curveball and a changeup which BA describes as the best in the organization. His upside looks to be in the #3/#4 starter range right now, but he's only 19 and could still improve his stuff and add a few ticks to his fastball. Don't be too afraid if he struggles this year, he's 19 and could repeat AA next year no matter what, but he's got a very bright future. He could also come out and dominate, which means he could be knocking on the door this time next year at 20.

Fernadno Abad, Henry Villar, Chia Jen-Lo and Matt Nevarez are four other pitchers to watch. Abad is the only starter among them and pitched well in high A and AA last year. He'll start the season in AA, but would likely be the first to move up, he's left handed with a good fastball. Villar, Nevarez and Lo are all relievers. They all had great succes last season, Villar and Nevarez in Lexington, Lo split between Lancaster and Corpus Christi, like Abad. Villar struck out 109 in 90 innings in 2009, walking only 18! All three could be in Houston by season's end. (Houston has a ton of relievers! Lindstrom, Lyon, Gervacio, Fulchino, Arias, Lo, Nevarez and Villar.)

All the big bats from Lancaster move up to Corpus Christi to start 2010, they will all be looking to prove they aren't a product of the ballpark. Among them are Koby Clemens, Jon Gaston, T.J. Steele and Jack Shuck. My favorite of the bunch is T.J. Steele, a 2008 fourth rounder (if memory serves me correct) out of Arizona. His tools, all five of them, are the best of any from this group. He has had trouble staying healthy and could struggle with his plate discipline (Ks and BBs). However, he could easily put it all together and become a top prospect. Gaston and Clemens I fear are both products of Lancaster. Both led the minors in a statistical category in 2009 (HRs and RBIs respectively). However, hopefully they prove me and everyone else wrong. Shuck is an intereting guy. He was very successful in Lancaster, but has no power, so his numbers couldn't have been inflated! He has excellent plate discipline, walking as much as he struck out and can steal bases, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep up his succes, or if he'll flame out in AA.

Wladimir Sutil is repeating AA, he's older, but a defensive wizard--I've heard, more so than Tommy Manzella. However, he's lacking on the offensive side, more so than Adam Everett of Tommy Manzella.

I get excited about some crazy things... like the minor league season that starts up tomorrow. So, in my anxious anticipation, I've written up my thoughts about each of the Astros' minor league affiliates.

Lancaster JetHawks (A+)

Lancaster graduated a great class of hitters to AA Corpus Christi, who I discussed in part 1, and they'll receive a great class of pitchers from Lexington in 2010 (although both Jordan Lyles and Henry Villar will skip Lancaster to move straight to AA). Perhaps the best of this class is Ross Seaton , the Astros' #6 prospect according to BA. Taken by the Astros in the 2008 draft, signing of slot in the third round, Seaton has a ton of upside. He's projectable and athletic, with good stuff when he came out of high school. However, he didn't stand out in a terrific Lexington rotation, although I don't know if that's his fault, he had to pitch along side Jordan Lyles afterall. I was not impressed with Seaton's strikeout rate, although overall his numbers were solid. He's still young, but will be tested in the hitter's league of California, the best wy to get outs here: keep the ball on the ground, or even better, strike guys out! I'd love to see Seaton put things together at this level this year, while showing his plus fastball and breaking ball, he has top of the rotation potential, but he's a long way from that at the major league level.

Joining Seaton in Lancaster are 2009 Lexington pitchers, Brad Dydalewicz , Kyle (Jeff) Greenwalt and Kyle Godfrey . Dydalewicz, a lefty and 2008 draft pick, probably has the most potential of the bunch, he has the best stuff. However, Greenwalt had the best 2009 season. Godfrey was a little behind the first two and could be used as a starter or reliever. All may have a hard time continuing the success they had in A ball in Lancaster though. We'll have to be patient with them, as their A+ stats may not immediately reflect their true potential. Ashton Mowdy, owener of the organization's best cruveball, according to BA, will also pitch in high A Lancaster.

Leanadro Cespedes pitched all of 2009 in Lancaster, and will return their again in 2010. His ERA last season was 5.06, however, he was Houston's best starter! He also improved as the season wore on and sported a good strikeout rate. He's an undersized righty, at 5'11 160, but has had good results in the past. He'll be expected to lead this young rotation.

Dallas Keuchel makes the jump from short season A, Try-City, to full season ball. He's perhaps the most interesting name of the bunch. He's an '09 draftee out of Arkansas, who pitched spectacularly last summer in the New York-Penn League. He's a pitchability lefty, with a good enough stuff to be a starter in the majors, even if it's only as a 4th or 5th starter. I think Keuchel is smart enough and advanced enough to lead Lancaster's stellar rotation in stats--as it may take Seaton and Dydalewicz some time to adjust. I fully expect to see Keuchel starting in Corpus Christi by early August.

The infield consists of Mark Ori, Albert Cartwright , Ebert Rosario and Brandon Wikoff . Ori was demoted from AA, playing there all of last season. With Koby Clemens and others moving up to AA, the Astros had to do something with Ori, move him up to Round Rock (where Chris Shelton and Drew Locke are) or move him down, where there isn't a useful 1B prospect. Ori should be the big run producer in the Lancaster lineup. He'll hit 20-30 homeruns and could battle for the league RBI title, but he's older and should not be regarded as a serious prospect. Cartwright and Rosario are coming from Lexington. They had some mild success there. Rosario is a very raw product, he strikes out a lot and has yet to fill out his 6-3 frame. He is getting old for the level though, he'll turn 23 in May. Brandon Wickoff was drafted in the top ten rounds in 2009 out of a small college in Illinois. He shows off some on-base skills and has some plate discipline, but he isn't a top prospect either. He could do well in Lancaster though, although he has no power to speak of.

The outfield, like in 2009, is where the offense should come from in Lancaster. Josh Flores was once considered a top 10 prospect, but that hasn't been true for a number of years. He, like Ori, was sent down from Corpus Christi do to Gaston, Steele and Shuck moving up, he's old for the league at 24. Flores, again like Ori, should provide some major offense here. He has amazing speed and could lead off. His career stats will get a boost in California, but it's unlikely he makes himself a prospect to truly watch again. Brandon Barnes is an intriguing name, with some tools, I think of him in the same way I thought of Jordan Parraz. However, he will turn 24 in May and is still very raw, striking out 133 times compared to 28 walks in 2009. He should help to replace Jon Gaston in the lineup, but he isn't likely a serious top prospect either. Jay Austin is a serious prospect, the 2008 second rounder,was rated eighth among Astros prospects by BA. I was encouraged by his 2009 performance in Lexington, particularly in the second half. He has tools, speed and defense mostly. However, there is little power in his bat and I am unsure of how much he'll hit at higher levels, since he hasn't even tore the cover off the ball in Lexington. I am hoping to see him take a step forward with the bat though, if he does we could be talking about a real good prospect next year.

Lexington Legends (A)

The Legends graduate six great pitchers from last year's staff. However, there is still some talent left there and some more moving in from short season and the 2009 draft. The cream of Lexington's 2010 crop is Tanner Bushue , Houston's 2009 second rounder. He reminds me a lot of Jordan Lyles: projectable, athletic, with an advanced approach for a high school pitcher. He had a great debut last summer, but was slowed down by a pre-existing back injury, one that won't affect him moving forward. He's too young to really be able to project in the future, but he has top of the rotation potential, depending on how his pitches develp.

Joining, Bushue in the 2010 will be pitchers: David Duncan, Jose Cisnero, Michael Schurz and Brandt Walker . Duncan was taken in the top ten rounds in 2008, out of Georgia Tech. He's a big lefty, but has had inconsistant results thus far, pitching in Lancaster and Tri-City last year before settling in Lexington. He's got a good repitoire, but will be 24 in June, he simply hasn't progressed since being drafted. I don't know much about Cisnero actually, I don't know anything about his stuff at least. However, he's 21 years old (or will be on Sunday) and has a good frame, 6-3 185. He also threw well in short season Greenville last summer. Striking out 64 and giving up only 32 hits in 55.2 innings, he started 13 games. I can't wait to see how this guy does over a full season's worth of starts and better competition than in rookie ball. Schurz and Walker are both relievers (Walker will likely be long term, even though he started in Tri-City last summer). Walker has electric stuff, but doesn't have the comman you'd like to see out of a college pitcher (he comes from Stanford). He did not perform well in his debut, despite being taken in the top 10 rounds in 2009. Schurz excelled in his debut, he struck out 37 in 29.2 innings of relief, his ERA was 1.52. He'll look to keep up his success in 2010.

Lexington's lineup is highlighted by 2009 first round pick, Jiovanni Mier . He has the potential to provide special defense from shortstop. He also has a pretty advanced bat, which he showed off in his debut, hitting 7 homeruns and walking 30 times. His OBP was .380 and his SLG% was a .484... not bad for a high school guy, who wasn't touted highly for his bat. I'd love to see him continue to hit to start the season. His defense will get him to Houston, but his bat will need to continue to grow for him to become an all-star.

Joining Mier in the infield is fellow 2009 draft pick, Jonathan Meyer . He is very raw with the bat, and lacks power, but will draw a lot of walks and plays good defense, with a great arm from third. His batting average has to improve this season, though. The second basemen will be Jose Altuve . He was a hitting machine in rookie ball last summer, and will look to keep up the success as he moves into full season ball. He's only 5-9 and the success rate for prospects of that stature isn't good, but he has some ability and will look to prove doubters wrong.

The big bat in the outfield will come from J.D. Martinez , another 2009 draftee. He surprised everyone last summer by hitting for a .400 OBP and nearly .600 SLG%. This was likely a simple matter of advanced hitter against weak competition, but he is a big name to watch coming into his full season debut, like the former Lancaster hitters, he'll look to keep up his strong numbers. I also like Brian Kemp . He provides some on-base skills and speed, but otherwise isn't very valuable and won't likely ever contribute in the majors.

I'm just throwing this one together, but as it stands Houston has three type A free agents potentially leaving this off-season and two type B free agents. 

The type As are: Miguel Tejada, who is firmly planted as a type A, Jose Valverde, again, firmly planted as a type A and LaTroy Hawkins, who is just on the cusp of line between A and B, currently, though, he qualifies as a type A. 

The type Bs are: Ivan Rodriguez, it looks like he will hold here, there isn't much chance he moves up into type A range or drops off either, and, Doug Brocail, I know tough to believe since he hasn't really pitched this season, but he is pretty firmly planted as a type B. 

Those are five players who could bring back draft pick compensation next year, IF, Houston offers them arbitration and they decline and sign elsewhere. 

Here's where the discussion comes in.  Who do you think Houston offers arbitration to? and, Who do you think is most likely to decline and go elsewhere? 

I guess I'm first up.  I don't think they risk giving arb. to Tejada, he wants to "retire an Astros" remember, and since they won't offer him a lucritive multi-year deal, accepting arbitration would probably get him a $10 million one-year contract.  I think Tejada will resign to a 2-year deal, with an option year, worth somewhere in the area of $15 million (total). 

I don't think Hawkins will get offered arb. either.  He's getting older and I don't think he's going to receive any big multi-year offers, his best option would be accepting, which could cost Houston $5 million or so. 

Valverde, however, will recieve arbitration and he will likely seek a multi-year deal, possibly from the Astros.  However, there is a very good chance he ends up somewhere else and Houston would receive a couple high picks in return. 

Pudge could go either way.  Houston won't need him next year (Quintero, Castro, Towles, Coste?) and he has done well enough this season, where teams should desire his services.  Still, there is a chance he accepts arbitration, in that case, though, I don't think it hurts Houston that badly. 

Doug Brocail will not be offered arb.  Much like last season.  He could retire, or he could sign a one-year contract, similar to what he did this past off-season.  I think it depends a lot on how he comes back in the second half. 

Thoughts?

Castro will become the team USA MVP if they hold on.  He just knocked a three-run homer to deep right to take the lead.  The prior half-inning he threw Luis Durango out at third, with a perfect bullet throw.  The pitcher did not get the ball home very fast either.  He was named BA's 19th best prospect, in all of baseball.  However, having shown little power in AA thus far, I was beginning to get worried.  His showing today, against some of the top talent in baseball, is very reassuring. 

I am looking for your thoughts here.  Feel free to be as specific, specific teams, specific players, or generic as you like.  Here are some of mine. 

I'm an Astros fan, and want to see Tejada traded, along with Valverde, and others if possible.  I think Tejada would bring in a big bounty right now.  Here's why: 1. several teams are on him as either a SS or 3B.  Simple supply and demand.  Playoff teams need to improve on the left side of the infield.  Tejada is the best available.  The Cards and Red Sox are both known to be interested.  2. He's only going to cost another $6 million this year, and then he's going to be a free agent.  I think teams will jump all over Tejada knowing they only have to pay him for a few more months.  3. He's going to be a type A free agent and could be worth two first rounders in next years draft.  So, you may give up a couple top prospects, but you could get some of that value back once Tejada leaves. 

I especially see the Red Sox are a fit.  Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson would be a nice start and would give Houston a #2/3 starter they desperately need. 

What do you think Tejada would bring back to Houston if they traded him?

The usual baseball america, pg cross checkers and milb.com resources...

First Round

1. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State

Strasburg is the number one pick of the 2009 MLB draft.  My official prediction for how much he signs for… $21.5 million.  Strasburg is the best prospect in the draft era, and would fit into a big league rotation immediately.  I would love for the Nationals to send him to AAA, so I can see him in Syracuse, and give you all my own scouting report of him.  He throws his fastball in the high 90s and can touch 103 mph.  He also throws a hammer breaking ball in the low-to-mid 80s and a changeup he throws in the low 80s.  I worry a little; I think its possible Strasburg blows out his arm at some point, a la the guy a lot of people compare him to, Mark Prior.  With a comp. of Mark Prior, who wouldn’t worry?   Anyways I seem to be in the minority on this. 

Continue reading this post »

The usual baseball america, pg crosscheckers and milb.com resources...

First Round

1. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State

Strasburg is the number one pick of the 2009 MLB draft.  My official prediction for how much he signs for… $21.5 million.  Strasburg is the best prospect in the draft era, and would fit into a big league rotation immediately.  I would love for the Nationals to send him to AAA, so I can see him in Syracuse, and give you all my own scouting report of him.  He throws his fastball in the high 90s and can touch 103 mph.  He also throws a hammer breaking ball in the low-to-mid 80s and a changeup he throws in the low 80s.  I worry a little; I think its possible Strasburg blows out his arm at some point, a la the guy a lot of people compare him to, Mark Prior.  With a comp. of Mark Prior, who wouldn’t worry?   Anyways I seem to be in the minority on this. 

2. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley OF North Carolina

If Strasburg is on the first tier of prospects by himself, I would say Ackley is on the second tier, all by himself.  He is clearly the best hitter, having “plus, plus hittability”, according to milb.com’s draft report.  He adds plus speed and range in centerfield.  Ackley has dispelled any thoughts that he wouldn’t be able to play centerfield, following Tommy John surgery last summer, which had him saddled at first.  The main question on Ackley is how much power he’ll hit for, and although I don’t think he needs too much to be an effective major league hitter, he certainly hit 20-30 homeruns.  There was some talk about the Mariners wanning on Ackley and considering Aaron Crow or Tanner Scheppers, but I don’t buy it, Ackley’s the guy.  What I think the Mariners are getting in Ackley is a future no. 3 hitter, who is going to play centerfield, hit .300+ with a .400 OBP, and be a 20-20 guy (Curtis Granderson better OBP?), not bad, eh?

3. San Diego Padres: Donavan Tate OF Cartersville HS (Georgia)

After the first two picks things get very interesting, very fast.  It seems as though the Padres have narrowed this selection to three guys: Tate, Aaron Crow and Mike Minor.  Although, if I were running this draft, I would take Tyler Matzek, who I believe is the third best prospect in the draft.  Crow would also be a good pick, but Minor is a clear overdraft.  If Ackley falls, the Padres WILL take him.  Tate has, perhaps, the highest ceiling in the draft.  However, he is also going to cost a lot of money, close to six million?  Tate has a strong commitment to North Carolina, where he would play both football and baseball – his father Lars Tate was an NFL player.  There are also questions about Tate’s hit-ability.  I like Tate at this spot for two reasons: 1. He’s the guy available with the most upside and San Diego’s system could really use some upside, particularly up the middle 2. If Tate doesn’t go number three, I don’t know where he goes, so I instead of forcing a headache upon myself, I’ve decided to take the risk, along with the Padres, and take Tate. 

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aaron Crow RHP Fort Worth (University of Missouri)

As previously stated, I’m fairly certain about the first two picks, however, every other pick is far from certain.  Rumors have swirled around the Pirates, involving a sign-ability pick here.  Names discussed include: Tony Sanchez and Bobby Borchering.  The Pirates would like to save money because they are rumored to be the favorites to sign Dominican Miguel Angel Sano a SS, the rumored price is four million.  Apart from those rumors the Pirates are known to like college pitchers and the top arm on my board is Aaron Crow, who has little negotiating power and should sign around slot.  If Crow’s name sounds familiar, it should, he was the number nine pick in last year’s draft, and went to an independent league, along with Tanner Scheppers, after failing to sign, I had him going number ten to my Astros.  Crow throws a low-to-mid 90s sinking fastball, a plus slider and an at least average changeup, which is his biggest improvement from last year.  Personally, I like Crow and think he has front of the rotation upside, as a reliever he could pitch in the major’s later this season and could be in a rotation next. 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley HS (California)

As previously stated, Matzek is the third prospect on my board, and although Zach Wheeler seems to be the popular pick here of late, I still like Matzek – and I love the idea of Wheeler seven to his home state Braves.  Matzek throws his fastball up to 95 mph, but sits in the low 90s.  He throws two at least average breaking balls, a curveball he throws in the mid 70s and a slider in the mid 80s.  He also throws a changeup, but hasn’t needed it yet.  Matzek may not be a true no. one starter type, but he has good 2/3 starter upside, with much more polish than you would expect from a HS pitcher.  The Orioles usually draft the best player available (BPA) and don’t shy away from guy with perceived signability problems.  I do think the Orioles would love to add a good position player to their system, but there is no one of value here, so the Orioles will be “forced” to add to their already stellar crop of pitchers. 

6. San Francisco Giants: Tanner Scheppers RHP St. Paul (Fresno State)

Scheppers is a tough guy to slot in.  Many experts have him falling out of the top ten and in some cases out of the first round, because of fear for that same shoulder problem that made him fall last year.  However, because I am mocking through the first supplemental, I would hate to have to guess how far Scheppers is going to fall, I mean, I already have to do that for Kyle Gibson, so I’m not going to torture myself and do it for Scheppers too.  I like this fit.  Although, I haven’t seen many people agree with me, that’s ok though.  Scheppers has put together a good showing in St. Paul and should be close to major league ready.  He profiles as a top of the rotation starter, but does come with injury risk.  He throws his fastball in the mid 90s and can put “cut and sink” onto it (according to milb.com).  He also throws a power curve and changeup.  Like the Orioles, I think the Giants would love to add a bat and could be a possibility for Tate should he fall past the Padres, but without sufficient value on my board the Giants will also add to their “stellar crop of pitchers”.  Jacob Turner and Zach Wheeler are also candidates. 

7. Atlanta Braves: Zack Wheeler RHP East Paulding HS (Georgia)

I hope the Brave appreciate me dodging two bullets (the Orioles and Giants) to deliver them their prized Georgia arm.  Wheeler was the guy I liked at the beginning of the year for the Astros, but since, has had his stock rise more than just about anyone in the draft.  Wheeler has a perfect pitcher’s body at 6’4 170, and also fits Atlanta’s mold as a prep local product, as an added bonus, he’ll sign for slot!  Wheeler already throws up to 95 mph and still has plenty of projection.  He also throws an above average curveball and the makings of an average change.  The sky is the limit for Wheeler, who has one of the highest upsides among the HS pitchers in this draft, but he also has some mechanical problems. 

8. Cincinnati Reds: Alex White RHP North Carolina

This is where I had Gibson slated for awhile, dubbing him the Yonder Alonso of this draft.  However, due to the stress fracture, the Reds are unlikely to take him – although they could – and I don’t have to explain my Gibson = Alonso comparison.  White has been up and down, but I still believe he has the highest upside amongst college pitchers NNS (not named Strasburg).  I actually really like White and believe he would be a steal here.  Leake and Grant Green are also possibilities.  White throws a low 90s fastball, which gets up to 95 mph; his 2-seamer has great movement to it.  His slider is also a plus pitch, he throws a splitter as an off-speed pitch, as well as a below average curveball. 

9. Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner RHP Westminster Christian Academy (Missouri)

Jacob Turner wants Rick Porcello money, well; why not give him to the team with a Rick Porcello void in their minors?  Turner has a large frame at 6-5 220 and is already throwing in the mid-low 90s.  He also throws a mid 70s slider.  He hasn’t really needed a changeup in high school.  Matt Purke is now being rumored

10. Washington Nationals: Chad Jenkins RHP Kennesaw State

Jenkins is a bit of an overdraft, but not too badly, since many think he could go to the Blue Jays at twenty also.  The Nationals have also been attached to Mike Trout and others with this pick.  The idea being to sign someone at or below slot since Strasburg is going to cost $21.5 million.  Jenkins throws his fastballs, two and four seamers, in the low 90s.  He adds a low 80s slider and changeup. 

11. Colorado Rockies: Mike Leake RHP Arizona State

Leake was the big mover during the college season, as he moved up probably a round.  He led division I in a couple statistical categories – so eat it Strasburg.  However, Leake profiles as a 3/4 starter, with a high floor.  He throws a high 80s/low 90s sinking fastball, he adds a high 70s/low 80s slider and plus changeup.  He command is plus, plus.  He’s short, but athletic for a pitcher.  The last four drafts, 78% of the Rockies’ top 137 picks have been college players, 50% have been college pitchers.  Mike Leake is a nice complement to Christian Friedrich (last year’s first rounder), and gives the Rockies a nice trio of advanced pitchers (throwing Jhoulys Chacin into the mix).  Plus they need all the pitching help they can get – although all three of the pitchers I listed profile towards the middle of the rotation.

12. Kansas City Royals: Wil Myers C Wesleyan Christian Academy (North Carolina)

After a couple years of paying for high priced talents: Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, etc, the Royals are looking for a bargain at a premium position (C, SS, CF), and rumors include Tony Sanchez, the top college catcher.  However, I like the higher upsided (yes, upsided, I like the way it sounds) Myers.  Myers has raw power and all the tools to become a solid defensive catcher, with a good arm.  He is also very athletic for a catcher, with above-average speed. 

13. Oakland Athletics: Grant Green SS Southern California

Before the season, Grant was expected to be one of the first three picks in the draft.  However, he has played his way down, as many now question his ability to stay at short, as well as his power.  Green does, however, have good hitting ability, and average to above-average speed.  His arm is also at least average, leaning above-average slightly.  However, (milb.com) he has some trouble ranging up the middle and his power is more line-drive power than anything else, but he could hit 15-20 homeruns.  Oakland’s MO is established college players, which makes it Green or Brothers in my book.  The A’s are also attached to Donavan Tate, should he fall, and his reported $6 million price tag, so signing Green should be no problem.  By the way, I love me some Green.  I think he’ll stick at short, and be a near .300 hitter with 15-20 homeruns… that’s enough. 

14. Texas Rangers: Shelby Miller HS Brownwood HS (Texas)

If there was a lock this late in the draft, it’d be Miller to the Rangers.  It fits there MO, he’s local, it works.  He throws in the mid 90s with a good curve in the mid 70s, but he has some command issues.  He’s plenty projectable.  Let me double check if this makes sense: Texas usually takes the BPA; money shouldn’t be a problem and they like their fire-ballers, yep, Miller does makes sense. 

15. Cleveland Indians : Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt

  Mike Minor has been rumored all over the first round, but there is no clear consensus on who that one team is who takes him.    The Indians want Miller, but he won’t get there.  So, it will be the best college player on their board.  The question is who is the top college arm on their board?  It could be Minor, Rex Brothers, James Paxton or Eric Arnett.  I picked Minor.  Mainly because he would fall in my mock if I didn’t put him here (if he doesn’t go here, my prediction is 19 to the Cardinals.  Minor is a low ceiling/high floor starter.  He throws a low 90s fastball, along with both a slider and curveball, and a good enough changeup.  He probably has 4/5 starter upside. 

16. Arizona Diamondbacks : Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb

17. Arizona Diamondbacks: Bobby Borchering 3B Bishop Verot HS (Florida )

Here’s the first pair of D’back picks.  They like to go high upside HSers early, followed by college floor.  Borchering has one of the best bats in the draft.  He is switch hitter with great bat speed and raw power from both sides.  Many believe he will have to eventually move to first but, I think he could stay at third.  His speed is average or a little below.  His arm is about average as well. 

Brothers is a guy I like a lot.  He throws his fastball in the mid 90s, he also throws a good slider, with a lot of movement, hasn’t thrown his changeup too much.  He’s a rare lefty that can dial his fastball up to 96/97 mph and I think his ceiling is 2/3 starter if he develops his changeup. 

18. Florida Marlins : Chad James LHP Yukon HS (Oklahoma )

Chad James is the guy I’m hoping falls to the ‘Stros at 21, but it’s unlikely he will as he is coveted by the D’backs, Marlins, Cardinals and Blue Jays.  The Marlins develop HS pitching very well, so James makes sense here.  If Borchering gets to here, I could see the Marlins taking the in-state third basemen.  James is a lefty with a low 90s fastball, he has touched 95 mph.  He also throws an above-average power curve and above-average changeup.  He has plenty of projection.  I seriously don’t know why James isn’t considered one of the elite HS arms, but one team will benefit as a result in the 16-22 range. 

19. St. Louis Cardinals : James Paxton LHP Kentucky

Word is the Cardinals are leaning left-handed pitcher, the options being: Minor, Brothers, James and Paxton.  One of them will fall, and in this scenario it’s the Boras corp. client, Paxton.  Paxton throws in the mid-to-high 90s, along with a hard slider and a change, which isn’t worth praising.  I don’t like Paxton, lack of a real changeup, command, questionable mechanics, Boras, but it seems like the Cards do, so he’s the pick.  

20. Toronto Blue Jays: Eric Arnett RHP Indiana

This was a tough one.  I’ve been hearing college arm.  The Jays would have liked Jenkins, Minor or Brothers, but none of them fell.  I also think Chad James is an option, although history would show the Jays shy away from HS arms in the early rounds, and Matt Hobgood is still an option.  Kyle Gibson, post-injury, has been rumored here and I think Mike Trout or Tim Wheeler are options here.  Trout has one of the highest upsides amongst position players and Wheeler is the next best college bat.  I went with the college arm route and took Arnett, although I am far less than confident with that pick.  Arnett is a 6’5” righty, who throws in the mid 90s, he also throws a slider in the high 70s/low 80s which can get batters out.  His changeup needs some work.  I’m not in love with this selection, but that’s mostly because I’m not in love with Arnett, who has risen this season, after an increase in velocity.  I also am not high on his secondary pitches or command, but he has to go somewhere in the first round… I guess, and he could go as high as 15. 

21. Houston Astros: Slade Heathcott LHP/OF Texas HS (Texas)

I have gone over this pick again and again.  I have changed my mind many times, and I still have no clue.  I have studied Astros drafts, particularly last year’s.  I have looked at the pool of names, over-and-over again, but still nothing looks right.  What does look right is Chad James.  He’d be perfect.  He’s the top guy on my wish list, but I really don’t think he’s going to last here, and I decided to adhere to my integrity as a blogger (ha) and have him go earlier.  I also like Rex Brothers, but he also will probably be gone.  There are other names in consideration here: Matt Hobgood would make sense as the next best HS arm, Jared Mitchell is the best athlete, I call Tim Wheeler “the Jason Castro of this draft”, and I started a recent buzz about Mike Trout.  Seriously, I participated in John Sickel’s mock draft on Saturday and took Trout with his pick, and since then, a bunch of people have started talking about Trout to the Astros.  I would love to see it, but I’m afraid Houston isn’t taking an OF from New Jersey and people just went to John’s website saw the pick, and liked… maybe I’m just being ethnocentric, I don’t know.  Anyways, the guy at thebaseballdraftreport.com said, “ a great tip though for any young mockers out there – go with as many off the wall picks as possible because, on the off chance you get lucky and nail one of them, you’ll be lauded as a prophet. Mock drafts almost work counter to basic human nature as people often forget the bad picks, but clearly remember the good ones.”  (By the way I suggest thebaseballdraftreport.com to anyone interested in the draft, lots of good insight)  I like this idea.  Houston is my favorite team, so I am going to hook them up with one of my favorite draft prospects, Slade Heathcott and actually it could happen...  Heathcott has one of the five highest upsides in the draft (among position players).  However, he has signability issues and character issues, which is why most teams are considering him for the second and third rounds.  The Yankees, among other teams are thinking about nabbing Heathcott in the first, due to the lack of solid options.  The Astros are also high on Heathcott, plus the all important, Texas factor.  So, why can’t the Astros jump on Heathcott?  One thing I can tell you about Bobby Heck and the current Astros draft philosophy is, they do not care about the consensus.  They will take whoever they believe to be the BPA, and it could be Heathcott.  Look at Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles from last draft?  Now go look at how they’re doing in their first full season… Jason Castro, by the way, for all you Astros fans, was called up to AA Corpus Christi and will be ready for Wednesday’s game.  Heathcott is a five-tool outfielder.   According to milb.com, he has “plus hitting ability”, “plus power to all fields”, above-average speed, plus arm strength and a plus defender.  I am going to try hard, to will this pick into reality. 

22. Minnesota Twins: Jiovanni Mier SS Bonita HS (California)

The MO on the Twins: HS bats, college arms.  Mier is the kind of toolsy player they like and with the first couple of tiers of college pitchers gone; he seems like an obvious choice.  Mier is the top HS shortstop amongst a deep class.  He has all the defensive tools to stay at short too.  He also has some hitting ability, with a little power to go with it. 

23. Chicago White Sox: Andrew Oliver LHP Oklahoma State

Oliver throws a mid 90s fastball along with a plus changeup, but he does not really have a breaking pitch yet.  He is also a Boras corp. client, but that shouldn’t bother the Chi Sox.  The White Sox have, however, been attached to several of the toolsy outfielders still around: Trout, Everett Williams and Reymond Fuentes. 

24. Los Angeles Angels : Tyler Skaggs LHP Santa Monica HS (California)

25. Los Angeles Angels : Mike Trout OF Milville HS (New Jersey)

Another back-to-back pick, remember if Skaggs goes 25 or Trout goes 24, I’m still counting it as a correct pick.  The Angels, like the D’backs have an abundance of early round pick, so they could do almost anything with them, but based on their philosophy and lack of talent in their system, they’ll go HS, HS, HS, early and often.  Skaggs is a California arm.  He throws a low 90s fastball, but should add more velocity as he matures; he is 6’5” 180 and offers plenty of projection, and some.  Skaggs also throws a plus curveball in the low 70s. 

Trout, like I’ve said is one of the ten best bats in the draft and I’ve heard it said that he is the most likely guy in the class to join the 30-30 club.  He’s a five-tooler with solid defensive skills and a plus arm. 

  26. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Gould RHP Maize HS Kansas

Gould just looks like a Brewers pick.  I get a Jake Odorizzi vibe from him, in fact.  He throws his fastball in the low 90s and can get into the mid 90s a little.  He also throws a plus curve and a decent enough changeup.  Gould also has that all important, no not “Texas factor”, projection thing.  He’s 6’4” 190 after all.

27. Seattle Mariners: Drew Storen RHP Stanford

  Storen is the top closer in the class, but I think he’ll be drafted as a starter, and the Mariners seem like a team that would do it.  He throws his fastball in the low 90s with good movement.  He also throws his curve in the low 80s and has an effective changeup.  That three pitch mix makes me think starter.  The Mariners are big on college players in the draft, by the way. 

28. Boston Red Sox: Matt Purke HS Klein HS (Texas)

Purke is easily one of the fifteen best players in the draft, but he wants so much money and there are only so many teams that are going to pay $5 million + for a prospect.  Which means someone is going to fall and the likely candidate is Purke.  So, some team at the bottom of the draft will luck out, possibly the Red Sox.  Purke throws his fastball in the low 90s, touching 95.  I’ve said that a lot, I mean, a lot of pitchers throw in the low 90s touching 95.  He throws his curve in the high 70s and has a good changeup.  He also has good command and a projectable body. 

29. New York Yankees: Matt Hobgood RHP Norco HS (California)

New York needs talent and s high school arm as good as Hobgood’s should be tough to pass up.  SS/RHP David Renfroe (this year’s Casey Kelly and Slade Heathcott have been rumored here.  Hobgood throws his fastball in the low 90s, he also throws a plus curve in the mid 70s, according to milb.com it could be the best curve among HS pitchers in the class.  He doesn’t have a changeup though, so he’ll need to work on a third pitch. 

30. Tampa Bay Rays: Max Stassi C Yuba City HS (California)

The Rays’ position of need on the farm is at catcher, and with Stassi available need happens to coincide with the BPA.  Stassi has great instincts and makeup; he also has all the defensive tools behind the plate and an average arm.  His bat should be good and he has some power. 

31. Chicago Cubs: AJ Pollock OF Notre Dame

The last four years, 85% of Cubs picks in the top 149 pick have been college players.  Pollock happens to be a personal favorite of mine, and it is tough to let him go to the Cubs, but the pick makes sense.  Pollock has a very advanced approach at the plate, and has gap power.  He is an above-average runner with great instincts.  He is a good fielder in center with an average arm. 

32. Colorado Rockies: Tim Wheeler OF Sacramento State

Kyle Gibson is rumored here but I’m not quite buying it.  Although, interesting move for the Rockies, if it happens, more on that later… again, if it happens.  Wheeler makes sense as the BPA and a college player; remember what I said about the Rockies and college players?  Wheeler makes good contact, with some power at times, and has plus speed.  He also has an average arm, but plus range in center.  That’s the first round. 

Compensation Round A

Now that we’re done with the first round, the blurbs are going to be much shorter and to the point. 

33. Seattle Mariners : Matt Davidson 3B Yucaipa HS (California )

Davidson has some of the greatest power potential in the draft, but like Borchering may have to move off first.  Personally, I think he can stay at third, though.  Seattle tends to lean college, but Davidson’s power bat may be too much to pass up and this pick would continue a stellar draft for the Mariners. 

34. Colorado Rockies : Alex Wilson RHP Texas A&M

The Rockies pick for a third time and I have them once again taking a college right hander.  Wilson, however, is not much like their first pick Mike Leake.  He has a mid 90s fastball, a sometimes plus slider he throws in the mid 80s a curveball and changeup, although the latter two aren’t nearly a useful as the first two.  Wilson pitched from the Texas A&M bullpen the second half of the season, but he still profiles as a starter with a pretty high ceiling. 

35. Arizona Diamondbacks : Brett Jackson OF California

Jackson is another personal fav.  He has a lot of raw power and some hitting ability, but strikes out a lot.  He also is an above-average runner.  He has a plus arm and is a decent fielder in center. 

36. Los Angeles Dodgers : Madison Younginer RHP Mauldin HS (South Carolina )

The Dodgers didn’t have a first round pick, so should go for a lot of upside with this pick… how about Younginer, who was a reliever in high school, but will be tried out as a starter in pro ball.  He has a mid 90s fastball and projection. 

37. Toronto Blue Jays : Jared Mitchell OF Louisiana State University

  Mitchell is one of the very best athletes in the draft, and was a possibility for the Astros in round one.  His ceiling is a Carl Crawford type outfielder with more power. 

38. Chicago White Sox : Rich Poythress 1B Georgia

  Poythress is one of the best pure hitters in the draft.  Again I opt against the toolsy OF rumors and I really don’t know why. 

39. Milwaukee Brewers : Tommy Joseph C Horizon HS (Arizona )

Joseph has enormous raw power and a chance to play behind the plate, with a plus arm.  He seems like a fit for the Brewers to me. 

40. Los Angeles Angels : Reymond Fuentes OF Puerto Rico

Fuentes is one of the toolsy outfielders the White Sox are after.  However, I think he’s a better fit for the Angels. 

41. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mychal Givens SS Plant HS (Florida)

Givens throws 97 mph off a mound, but it seems like most teams now like him as a high upside HS shortstop.  Is he a possible five-tooler?

42. Los Angeles Angels: Nick Franklin SS Lake Brantley HS (Florida)

  I really like this pick.  Franklin does just about everything well, with great makeup and the ability to stay at short long term. 

43. Cincinnati Reds : Marc Krauss 3B/OF Ohio

I don’t know that much about Krauss, he is one of the college ranks’ best power hitters , that’s about it.  I just love the prospect of the Ohio to Ohio connection here. 

44. Texas Rangers : Everett Williams OF McCallum HS (Texas )

Williams is another toolsy outfielder, with good power potential and speed.  The Astros were at one time considering him in the first, but have since soured on him a little. 

45. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jason Kipnis OF Arizona State

Arizona will take guys from Arizona State, they would love Leake, and Kipnis will sign for slot, an essential for teams with so many early picks.  Kipnis has about average tools across the board. 

46. Minnesota Twins : Sam Dyson RHP South Carolina

Dyson is a draft-eligible sophomore (Drew Storen is too actually), which means he has added leverage and could potentially be tougher to sign as a result.  He has a mid 90s fastball and mid 80s slider. 

47. Milwaukee Brewers: Kentrail Davis OF Tennessee

Davis is also a draft-eligible sophomore, he was supposed to be a first rounder at the start of the season, but was only ok.  Many believe he would benefit greatly from a junior season.  Davis could have a good power/speed combo, but some think he won’t be able to play center in the future, hurting his value. 

48. Los Angeles Angels: Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri

Here’s where I have Gibson.  It’s really just a stab in the dark.  Many think Gibson will still find his way in the first round, but I don’t really want to see a team waste a pick.  The Angels have money, multiple picks and are in need of great value.  When healthy, Gibson throws a low 90s/high 80s fastball with one of the best sliders in the draft and above-average changeup with above-average command. 

49. Pittsburgh Pirates : Tony Sanchez C Boston College

Tony Sanchez is the top college catcher, and is unlikely to fall this far, but he could.  If he does, it would work out greatly for the Pirates, who were considering him for the first round.  Sanchez has some hit ability, some power, average speed, a decent arm and good skills behind the plate.  He’s a prospect you shrug your shoulders at, because, other than his ability to stay behind the plate, no tool really stands out, which is probably why he’s slipped in my mock.  But, those tools in a catcher are very useful.  The Pirates like to take college players, they could use a catcher in their system (who couldn’t) and Sanchez would be the BPA here.  That’s the first sandwich round.

21 Mike Trout OF Millville HS (New Jersey)

69 Colton Cain LHP/1B Walxahachie HS (Texas)

100 Kendal Volz RHP Baylor

111 Jake Cowan RHP San Jacinto JC (Texas)

Chad James was the guy on top of my list at pick 21, followed closely by Rex Brothers, I was really hoping one of those two would fall to me.  My contingency plan was a group of outfielders: Everett Williams, Jared Mitchell, Tim Wheeler; even though the outfield (as well as behind the plate) is where Houston has the most depth in their system.  I was very surprised - and thankful - Mike Trout fell to me and couldn't pass him up, he offers one of the highest upsides in the draft, especially on offense. 

In the second round I fell amongst some tough times, as my top options, David Renfroe, Slade Heathcott, Todd Glaesman were snatched up pretty quickly.  I countered with a new list, which included Jeff Malm and Randal Grichuk, along with Cain.  Grichuk and Malm were taken in the two picks preceeding my own, so I was left with Cain.  Cain should be a difficult sign, but last year's draft gave me some hope that a deal can be done this year.  Cain would join a group of young pitchers, that aready establishing themselves in the low minors for the Astros: Jordan Lyles, Ross Seaton, Kyle Greenwalt, Robert Bono, Henry Villar and Brad Dydalewicz. 

Bobby Heck has made his admiration of the "depth of pitching" in the Big 12 clear.  I also considered A.J. Morris here.  However, Kendal Volz was the clear pick for me.  Volz was, afterall, being considered as a first rounder only a couple of months ago.  He also provides a good amount of upside from the third round as a potential 2/3 starter.  He has three good pitchers, including a mid 90s fastball.  After his showing in last year's Olympics last year, as the closer, he should make a solid reliever, if he fails as a starter. 

Jake Cowan is one of the best, in my mind, the best, junior college players in this draft.  This was the last pick of our draft, and to be honest, everyone on my board was gone.  Two or three picks from mine, Jake Cowan's name popped into my head, and he become the choice.  Cowan is certainly worthy of this pick, and I would be satisfied if he became the pick on Tuesday. 

Overall I am pretty satisfied with this draft.  Like John said, it is a good mix of players.  Even though many of the picks were not my first choices and actually were contingency plans, I recieved good value at each pick, and I think Volz is a steal in the third.  Now if only Ed Wade could work on trading Tejada and Valverde, Houston would be well on their way to reestablishing their farm system.

This will be the final MOD for the Astros, in preparation for Saturday's mock. 

First, pick 21, I have narrowed Bobby Heck's board to three players.  One of which should be available.  They are Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb, Chad James LHP HS Oklahoma and Everett Williams OF HS Texas.  Please vote on the pollin case two or more of these three are available.  James and Brothers we have discussed before and determined as top choices, Williams is new to the list, but his upside certainly warrants the pick.  He is one of the best athletes in the draft and has the best speed/power combo in the draft among the HS ranks.  Other options, if all three are taken are: Tyler Skaggs, Matt Hobgood, Mike Trout, Jared Mitchell, Eric Arnett and James Paxton. 

For picks 69, 100 and 111, I am looking to go with athletes and high upside arms.  Much in the mold of Bobby Heck's 2008 draft, when he picked Lyles, Jay Austin and Ross Seaton.  I will still look for a shortstop, but will not sacrifice better value for one.  I would appreciate suggestions for players that fit the above mold and your thoughts on the players I've mentioned, either in this post or in the past.

Thank you to those who have been participating thus far.  In the first MOD we speculated a little on the Astros' gameplan and hashed out some names for pick 21.  Here's a recap:

Bobby Heck doesn't care what the experts say, he's going to take the guy he feels is best, 'nough said

We're leaning towards a pitcher in round one, but won't be afraid to take a bat

Considered at pick 21 (in no particular order):

Rex Brothers

Eric Arnett

Chad James

Tyler Skaggs

Jared Mitchell

Tim Wheeler

Someone who falls

As we move forward feel free to make a case for someone new to join this list.  Or give me some feedback as to who you think is the top guy on the list. 

Next order of business is Houston's second and two third round picks at 69, 100 and 111.  First,, what should we do with these picks?  Where might we look to go overslot?  Who are some guys we might want to target?  Who are some local high school products, who will be a tough sign, a la Ross Seaton, that we could steal late?  We're looking for upside with these picks, much like what Houston did last year:  Lyles in the supp. Jay Austin in the second, Chase Davidson and Ross Seaton in the third.  With these picks it is all about trying to hit a homerun with one of the picks. 

I still want to take a shortstop at some point with these picks, preferbly one who will stay at the position and hit (who doesn't, right?).  Who do you think fits this mold?  Please provide names and a brief description/scouting report.  I have some ideas, but would like to hear what all of you have to say before I divulge mine. 

Let's get talking.

5/13/09

Excuse me, as I slide my legs into Bobby Heck's ironed slacks, and tie his shoes tightly onto my feet. 

I am very excited about the Astros' draft prospects going in, and although I am wearing the pants [Bobby Heck's pants at that], I appreciate those of you who are willing to advise me. I feel as though, together we can come up with a plan that would most benefit the Astros (hypothetically) and this mock draft.

We are picking four times: 21, 69, 100, and 111. 

We should spend this entry preparing a plan of attack.  With that in mind, let me share with you my purpose.  I believe it is our duty to serve this mock draft by trying our best to become the Astros front office.  This will require us to stop thinking, what would we like to see happen, which players are my favorite and begin asking the questions, who are the Astros targeting?  Which players best fit Bobby Heck and Ed Wade's draft philosophies?  What areas will Houston target and when? 

So, with the 21st pick what are the Astros likely to take (and why)?  I'm looking for responses like, for example, Houston is definitely looking to take a HS arm in the first round.  Last year they scored big with Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton, they can score a lefty counterpart in Tyler Skaggs in the first round here.  Basically what do you think Houston will look to do in the draft, and if you wish to get specific with each pick, feel free to.  If you wish to mention a name or two, you are interested in, go ahead and name them, but be sure to give support for that player, how do they fit in Houston's draft plans.  We will discuss particular names at a later time.  Right now my main is to establish a plan.  I want to thank you all for participating and  I look forward to reading and discussing your ideas. 

The last manner of business would be selecting a deputy scouting director, to manage things when I am not around.  If you are interested please say so, I am not in a rush to make that decision, but would like to have the matter settled by next week.  I will choose among those interested based on participation, and chemistry.  I want someone whose thoughts coincide with mine, but also is willing to disagree, as long as they have solid information to back them up.

5/13/09

Excuse me, as I slide my legs into Bobby Heck's ironed slacks, and tie his shoes tightly onto my feet. 

I am very excited about the Astros' draft prospects going in, and although I am wearing the pants [Bobby Heck's pants at that], I appreciate those of you who are willing to advise me. I feel as though, together we can come up with a plan that would most benefit the Astros (hypothetically) and this mock draft.

We are picking four times: 21, 69, 100, and 111. 

We should spend this entry preparing a plan of attack.  With that in mind, let me share with you my purpose.  I believe it is our duty to serve this mock draft by trying our best to become the Astros front office.  This will require us to stop thinking, what would we like to see happen, which players are my favorite and begin asking the questions, who are the Astros targeting?  Which players best fit Bobby Heck and Ed Wade's draft philosophies?  What areas will Houston target and when? 

So, with the 21st pick what are the Astros likely to take (and why)?  I'm looking for responses like, for example, Houston is definitely looking to take a HS arm in the first round.  Last year they scored big with Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton, they can score a lefty counterpart in Tyler Skaggs in the first round here.  Basically what do you think Houston will look to do in the draft, and if you wish to get specific with each pick, feel free to.  If you wish to mention a name or two, you are interested in, go ahead and name them, but be sure to give support for that player, how do they fit in Houston's draft plans.  We will discuss particular names at a later time.  Right now my main is to establish a plan.  I want to thank you all for participating and  I look forward to reading and discussing your ideas. 

The last manner of business would be selecting a deputy scouting director, to manage things when I am not around.  If you are interested please say so, I am not in a rush to make that decision, but would like to have the matter settled by next week.  I will choose among those interested based on participation, and chemistry.  I want someone whose thoughts coincide with mine, but also is willing to disagree, as long as they have solid information to back them up.

Round Rock Express AAA

Pitcher of the Month : Bud Norris RHP

Probably the easiest decision I am going to make here.  Had Felipe Paulino not made three starts with the Astros he would have battled Norris for this spot but, to our enamored joy, Paulino has thrived in Houston, and has stayed on the roster.  Norris made four starts in April, pitching a total of twenty-three and two thirds innings.  Despite the lack of a win – his record was 0-2 – Norris pitched well posting an ERA of 2.28, and striking out an organizational leading (I am almost positive about that) 25 batters.  I had Norris listed as Houston’s top pitching prospect heading into the season, and he is proving thus far he deserves a shot in the majors but, Paulino’s success will likely prevent Norris from starting for Houston anytime soon, though it will certainly happen before the end of the season. 

Others considered: Felipe Paulino RHP

Hitter of the Month : Mark Saccomanno 3B/1B

Unlike its counterpart, this was a difficult decision.  I would like to award these superlatives to actual prospects, rather than career minor leaguers but, in this case I felt pressed to give the hardware to Saccamanno, who was clearly the best hitter for the Express last month.  He hit .282/.305/.500/.805, with 4 homeruns.  He acted as the team’s catalyst knocking in 20 runs, and scoring 10 of his own.  I would like to announce that I am creating a new stat category, points, which acts the same as in hockey, it consists of a hitter’s runs (goals) and rbis (assists).  Sacco scored 30 "points" in April which is more than double the total of the two guys I also considered here… combined.  Perhaps most impressive in April was Sacco’s strikeout numbers, only four k’s in 78 at-bats.  I realize his on-base numbers are not stellar but, Mark was far and away the best power hitter on a team that was typically deprived of offense.  Now, I would like to address the issue of the term "career minor leaguer".  That’s what Saccomanno is, face it, he’s 29, and will never be a capable defender at third, I give you, the right-handed hitting Mike Lamb .  Now, I will secede that Saccamanno could make a terrific bench player, like Lamb did but, management does not seem willing to try it at the expense of veterans like Geoff Blum , Jason Smith , or Darin Erstad .  I would like to offer Saccamanno a slightly belated birthday, his was Thursday, and congratulate him on sharing his birthday with a certain blogger we know (that’s me).   Now I have written a very full paragraph which is much more than I ever intended. 

Others considered: Yordanny Ramirez OF and J.R. Towles C

Corpus Christi Hooks

Pitcher of the Month : Chad Walger

Lexington has arms, Lancaster has bats, and Round Rock as arms, Corpus Christi has bats.  That is my current philosophy on Houston’s minor league affiliates .  Corpus Christi does not have pitching, thus Walger, who started one game, while appearing in six others, for a total of seventeen and one third innings.  His ERA was a respectable 3.63, and he ended the month with a 1-2 record.  He also had the third highest strikeout total on the team with 13 (the leader was Polin Trinidad who had 17 strikouts and only one walk). 

Others considered: Polin Trinidad LHP and Brad James RHP

Hitter of the Month : James Van Ostrand OF/1B/DH

First I’ll tell you who I eliminated. Andrew Locke OF is 25 in the Texas League , not impressed, especially when there are real prospects also in contention.  Mitch Einertson OF, my favorite prospect prior to the 2008 draft, Einertson missed some games early in the season while the lineup was being worked out but, has since excelled.  He finished the month with a .950 OPS, and hit an XBH % close to 50% (so a hit of his went for extra bases 50% of the time), he also hit for a high OBP .373, which is what impressed me.  Colin DeLome scored 34 points, hit seven homeruns, stole three bases, and hit for an OPS over .900, had DeLome not struck out (16) four more times than he walked (4) he would have been the guy.  I didn’t like giving Van Ostrand the prize, he’s getting old for a prospect, and doesn’t have a position but, I can’t deny a 1.253 OPS, right?  He also scored five more points (25) than Einertson in the same number of at-bats.  Van Ostrand also hit nine XBH (extra-base-hits) and finished the month with an OBP over .500, ‘nough said.  However, as an added treat here is how I would currently rank these four as prospects. 

Others Considered: Locke, Einertson and DeLome

Lancaster Jethawks

Pitcher of the Month : Chia-Jen Lo RHP

The 22 year old Taiwanese import has been dealing thus far; he has pitched fourteen and two thirds innings, all in relief, allowing only one earned run, for an ERA of 0.61.   He has struck out 24 batters, while allowing only a .102 batting average against.  I still have not seen a scouting report on him (so, if you see one, please refer me to it) but, so far he’s looked like a top prospect. 

Others considered: Chris Hicks RHP

Hitter of the Month : Jack (J.B.) Shuck OF

This was another very close race, with five guys considered.  Shuck ended up being my guy despite a lack of power, hitting zero homeruns and only four extra base hits last month.  He did, however, hit a .354 batting average, with a .411 on-base percentage; he also stole six bases and walked as many times as he struck out (8).  Shuck was the everyday lead off hitter for the Jethawks scoring eighteen points, all but five of which were runs scored. 

Others Considered: T.J. Steele OF, Jason Castro C, Jon Gaston OF, Brian Pellegrini OF

Steele would have been the guy I selected (he led the team in OPS), had he totaled more than twelve at-bats after missing the first couple weeks of the season.  Pellegrini is kind of old for A ball, and despite hitting seven homeruns and scoring 28 points, hit only a .227 batting average, and struck out 23 times.  Gaston’s OPS was just shy of .900 and he hit five homeruns last month but, ultimately it was not enough to edge out Shuck, since Gaston’s batting average was .235 and he struck out 20 times, seven more times than he walked.  Castro, Houston’s top prospect and 2008 first round pick, was tied for the most total bases on the team with 38; he also hit .278 for the month, though that number fluctuated from game-to-game anywhere from over .300 to less than .250.  Castro hit three homeruns, nine extra bases and scored 21 points but, despite his overall numbers fell short of Shuck due to his 3:1 K to BB ratio (15 strikeouts to 4 walks).  Quite frankly I expected more plate discipline from the guy. 

Lexington Legends

Co Pitchers of the Month : Brad Dydalewicz LHP, Henry Villar RHP, Ross Seaton RHP

Like I said previously, Lexington is all about the arms.  Dydalewicz has maintained an ERA of 0.00 over 17 IP; he has struck out only 8 while walking 7, thus the "Co" status.  I am not sure where Henry Villar came from but, the 20 year old from the DR has grabbed my attention, striking out 26 batters, walking only 4, in 15.1 innings.  Seaton won three games in April, while posting an ERA of 1.14 over 23.2 innings, while striking out 15.  All three of these pitchers have offered something different to what is a terrific pitching staff in Lexington so; I felt it was fitting to include all three. 

Hitter of the Month : Albert Cartwright 2B

.328 batting average/.400 on-base percentage/.522 slugging percentage/.922 OPS, 24 points, 10 extra base hits, 37 total bases, 3 stolen bases.  Even with a K:BB ration greater than 2 to 1, Cartwright is one of the (very) few bright spots in the Lexington lineup. 

Others Considered: Ebert Rosario 3B

I have the 5th, 15th, 25th, etc. pick in my dynasty league draft.  

Where should Gordon Beckham fall in there?  Is he a first rounder, or will he fall to me later in the draft?  Also, who should I consider with the 5th pick?

Here are my starters:

C K.Suzuki, J.R. Towles

1B L.Berkman

2B D.Uggla

3B E.Longoria

SS Tulowitzki

LF R.Ibanez

CF G.Sizemore

RF A.Rios

UTIL H.Pence

UTIL J.Loney, A.Gordon, J.Lopez, Polanco

My pitchers are: Lincecum, Matsuzaka, Verlander, Harden, Scherzer, Sheets, J.Danks.  Valverde, Nathan, Lidge, C.Qualls, B.Wilson. 

Obviously I need a new catcher, and I am trying to move up in the draft to take Weiters but, if I cannot.  What guys should I consider with the 5th pick?

according to me.

I have been writing a blog series over the last couple of months over at cbssportsline.  My target audience has been casual baseball fans, who are probably not too knowledgeable about their favorite team's prospects.  However, I finally decided to post a link to my blog page here so, maybe you guys will check it out, and give me some feedback.  I am almost finished with the entire national league, I am working on the final team of the league, the Giants.  After I finish with them, then I will recap the entire national league, so check it out.

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