SB Nation User Blog: byronlhsdrmr

Current Elias Rankings: how it could affect the Astros' offseason

byronlhsdrmr — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:42:11 -0000

I'm just throwing this one together, but as it stands Houston has three type A free agents potentially leaving this off-season and two type B free agents.

The type As are: Miguel Tejada, who is firmly planted as a type A, Jose Valverde, again, firmly planted as a type A and LaTroy Hawkins, who is just on the cusp of line between A and B, currently, though, he qualifies as a type A.

The type Bs are: Ivan Rodriguez, it looks like he will hold here, there isn't much chance he moves up into type A range or drops off either, and, Doug Brocail, I know tough to believe since he hasn't really pitched this season, but he is pretty firmly planted as a type B.

Those are five players who could bring back draft pick compensation next year, IF, Houston offers them arbitration and they decline and sign elsewhere.

Here's where the discussion comes in. Who do you think Houston offers arbitration to? and, Who do you think is most likely to decline and go elsewhere?

I guess I'm first up. I don't think they risk giving arb. to Tejada, he wants to "retire an Astros" remember, and since they won't offer him a lucritive multi-year deal, accepting arbitration would probably get him a $10 million one-year contract. I think Tejada will resign to a 2-year deal, with an option year, worth somewhere in the area of $15 million (total).

I don't think Hawkins will get offered arb. either. He's getting older and I don't think he's going to receive any big multi-year offers, his best option would be accepting, which could cost Houston $5 million or so.

Valverde, however, will recieve arbitration and he will likely seek a multi-year deal, possibly from the Astros. However, there is a very good chance he ends up somewhere else and Houston would receive a couple high picks in return.

Pudge could go either way. Houston won't need him next year (Quintero, Castro, Towles, Coste?) and he has done well enough this season, where teams should desire his services. Still, there is a chance he accepts arbitration, in that case, though, I don't think it hurts Houston that badly.

Doug Brocail will not be offered arb. Much like last season. He could retire, or he could sign a one-year contract, similar to what he did this past off-season. I think it depends a lot on how he comes back in the second half.

Thoughts?

Futures Game: Jason Castro

byronlhsdrmr — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 00:01:42 -0000

Castro will become the team USA MVP if they hold on. He just knocked a three-run homer to deep right to take the lead. The prior half-inning he threw Luis Durango out at third, with a perfect bullet throw. The pitcher did not get the ball home very fast either. He was named BA's 19th best prospect, in all of baseball. However, having shown little power in AA thus far, I was beginning to get worried. His showing today, against some of the top talent in baseball, is very reassuring.

What is Tejada worth on the trade market?

byronlhsdrmr — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 18:22:46 -0000

I am looking for your thoughts here. Feel free to be as specific, specific teams, specific players, or generic as you like. Here are some of mine.

I'm an Astros fan, and want to see Tejada traded, along with Valverde, and others if possible. I think Tejada would bring in a big bounty right now. Here's why: 1. several teams are on him as either a SS or 3B. Simple supply and demand. Playoff teams need to improve on the left side of the infield. Tejada is the best available. The Cards and Red Sox are both known to be interested. 2. He's only going to cost another $6 million this year, and then he's going to be a free agent. I think teams will jump all over Tejada knowing they only have to pay him for a few more months. 3. He's going to be a type A free agent and could be worth two first rounders in next years draft. So, you may give up a couple top prospects, but you could get some of that value back once Tejada leaves.

I especially see the Red Sox are a fit. Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson would be a nice start and would give Houston a #2/3 starter they desperately need.

What do you think Tejada would bring back to Houston if they traded him?

My Mock Draft

byronlhsdrmr — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 14:27:59 -0000

The usual baseball america, pg cross checkers and milb.com resources...

First Round

1. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State

Strasburg is the number one pick of the 2009 MLB draft. My official prediction for how much he signs for… $21.5 million. Strasburg is the best prospect in the draft era, and would fit into a big league rotation immediately. I would love for the Nationals to send him to AAA, so I can see him in Syracuse, and give you all my own scouting report of him. He throws his fastball in the high 90s and can touch 103 mph. He also throws a hammer breaking ball in the low-to-mid 80s and a changeup he throws in the low 80s. I worry a little; I think its possible Strasburg blows out his arm at some point, a la the guy a lot of people compare him to, Mark Prior. With a comp. of Mark Prior, who wouldn’t worry? Anyways I seem to be in the minority on this.

2. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley OF North Carolina

If Strasburg is on the first tier of prospects by himself, I would say Ackley is on the second tier, all by himself. He is clearly the best hitter, having “plus, plus hittability”, according to milb.com’s draft report. He adds plus speed and range in centerfield. Ackley has dispelled any thoughts that he wouldn’t be able to play centerfield, following Tommy John surgery last summer, which had him saddled at first. The main question on Ackley is how much power he’ll hit for, and although I don’t think he needs too much to be an effective major league hitter, he certainly hit 20-30 homeruns. There was some talk about the Mariners wanning on Ackley and considering Aaron Crow or Tanner Scheppers, but I don’t buy it, Ackley’s the guy. What I think the Mariners are getting in Ackley is a future no. 3 hitter, who is going to play centerfield, hit .300+ with a .400 OBP, and be a 20-20 guy (Curtis Granderson better OBP?), not bad, eh?

3. San Diego Padres: Donavan Tate OF Cartersville HS (Georgia)

After the first two picks things get very interesting, very fast. It seems as though the Padres have narrowed this selection to three guys: Tate, Aaron Crow and Mike Minor. Although, if I were running this draft, I would take Tyler Matzek, who I believe is the third best prospect in the draft. Crow would also be a good pick, but Minor is a clear overdraft. If Ackley falls, the Padres WILL take him. Tate has, perhaps, the highest ceiling in the draft. However, he is also going to cost a lot of money, close to six million? Tate has a strong commitment to North Carolina, where he would play both football and baseball – his father Lars Tate was an NFL player. There are also questions about Tate’s hit-ability. I like Tate at this spot for two reasons: 1. He’s the guy available with the most upside and San Diego’s system could really use some upside, particularly up the middle 2. If Tate doesn’t go number three, I don’t know where he goes, so I instead of forcing a headache upon myself, I’ve decided to take the risk, along with the Padres, and take Tate.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aaron Crow RHP Fort Worth (University of Missouri)

As previously stated, I’m fairly certain about the first two picks, however, every other pick is far from certain. Rumors have swirled around the Pirates, involving a sign-ability pick here. Names discussed include: Tony Sanchez and Bobby Borchering. The Pirates would like to save money because they are rumored to be the favorites to sign Dominican Miguel Angel Sano a SS, the rumored price is four million. Apart from those rumors the Pirates are known to like college pitchers and the top arm on my board is Aaron Crow, who has little negotiating power and should sign around slot. If Crow’s name sounds familiar, it should, he was the number nine pick in last year’s draft, and went to an independent league, along with Tanner Scheppers, after failing to sign, I had him going number ten to my Astros. Crow throws a low-to-mid 90s sinking fastball, a plus slider and an at least average changeup, which is his biggest improvement from last year. Personally, I like Crow and think he has front of the rotation upside, as a reliever he could pitch in the major’s later this season and could be in a rotation next.

5. Baltimore Orioles: Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley HS (California)

As previously stated, Matzek is the third prospect on my board, and although Zach Wheeler seems to be the popular pick here of late, I still like Matzek – and I love the idea of Wheeler seven to his home state Braves. Matzek throws his fastball up to 95 mph, but sits in the low 90s. He throws two at least average breaking balls, a curveball he throws in the mid 70s and a slider in the mid 80s. He also throws a changeup, but hasn’t needed it yet. Matzek may not be a true no. one starter type, but he has good 2/3 starter upside, with much more polish than you would expect from a HS pitcher. The Orioles usually draft the best player available (BPA) and don’t shy away from guy with perceived signability problems. I do think the Orioles would love to add a good position player to their system, but there is no one of value here, so the Orioles will be “forced” to add to their already stellar crop of pitchers.

6. San Francisco Giants: Tanner Scheppers RHP St. Paul (Fresno State)

Scheppers is a tough guy to slot in. Many experts have him falling out of the top ten and in some cases out of the first round, because of fear for that same shoulder problem that made him fall last year. However, because I am mocking through the first supplemental, I would hate to have to guess how far Scheppers is going to fall, I mean, I already have to do that for Kyle Gibson, so I’m not going to torture myself and do it for Scheppers too. I like this fit. Although, I haven’t seen many people agree with me, that’s ok though. Scheppers has put together a good showing in St. Paul and should be close to major league ready. He profiles as a top of the rotation starter, but does come with injury risk. He throws his fastball in the mid 90s and can put “cut and sink” onto it (according to milb.com). He also throws a power curve and changeup. Like the Orioles, I think the Giants would love to add a bat and could be a possibility for Tate should he fall past the Padres, but without sufficient value on my board the Giants will also add to their “stellar crop of pitchers”. Jacob Turner and Zach Wheeler are also candidates.

7. Atlanta Braves: Zack Wheeler RHP East Paulding HS (Georgia)

I hope the Brave appreciate me dodging two bullets (the Orioles and Giants) to deliver them their prized Georgia arm. Wheeler was the guy I liked at the beginning of the year for the Astros, but since, has had his stock rise more than just about anyone in the draft. Wheeler has a perfect pitcher’s body at 6’4 170, and also fits Atlanta’s mold as a prep local product, as an added bonus, he’ll sign for slot! Wheeler already throws up to 95 mph and still has plenty of projection. He also throws an above average curveball and the makings of an average change. The sky is the limit for Wheeler, who has one of the highest upsides among the HS pitchers in this draft, but he also has some mechanical problems.

8. Cincinnati Reds: Alex White RHP North Carolina

This is where I had Gibson slated for awhile, dubbing him the Yonder Alonso of this draft. However, due to the stress fracture, the Reds are unlikely to take him – although they could – and I don’t have to explain my Gibson = Alonso comparison. White has been up and down, but I still believe he has the highest upside amongst college pitchers NNS (not named Strasburg). I actually really like White and believe he would be a steal here. Leake and Grant Green are also possibilities. White throws a low 90s fastball, which gets up to 95 mph; his 2-seamer has great movement to it. His slider is also a plus pitch, he throws a splitter as an off-speed pitch, as well as a below average curveball.

9. Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner RHP Westminster Christian Academy (Missouri)

Jacob Turner wants Rick Porcello money, well; why not give him to the team with a Rick Porcello void in their minors? Turner has a large frame at 6-5 220 and is already throwing in the mid-low 90s. He also throws a mid 70s slider. He hasn’t really needed a changeup in high school. Matt Purke is now being rumored

10. Washington Nationals: Chad Jenkins RHP Kennesaw State

Jenkins is a bit of an overdraft, but not too badly, since many think he could go to the Blue Jays at twenty also. The Nationals have also been attached to Mike Trout and others with this pick. The idea being to sign someone at or below slot since Strasburg is going to cost $21.5 million. Jenkins throws his fastballs, two and four seamers, in the low 90s. He adds a low 80s slider and changeup.

11. Colorado Rockies: Mike Leake RHP Arizona State

Leake was the big mover during the college season, as he moved up probably a round. He led division I in a couple statistical categories – so eat it Strasburg. However, Leake profiles as a 3/4 starter, with a high floor. He throws a high 80s/low 90s sinking fastball, he adds a high 70s/low 80s slider and plus changeup. He command is plus, plus. He’s short, but athletic for a pitcher. The last four drafts, 78% of the Rockies’ top 137 picks have been college players, 50% have been college pitchers. Mike Leake is a nice complement to Christian Friedrich (last year’s first rounder), and gives the Rockies a nice trio of advanced pitchers (throwing Jhoulys Chacin into the mix). Plus they need all the pitching help they can get – although all three of the pitchers I listed profile towards the middle of the rotation.

12. Kansas City Royals: Wil Myers C Wesleyan Christian Academy (North Carolina)

After a couple years of paying for high priced talents: Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, etc, the Royals are looking for a bargain at a premium position (C, SS, CF), and rumors include Tony Sanchez, the top college catcher. However, I like the higher upsided (yes, upsided, I like the way it sounds) Myers. Myers has raw power and all the tools to become a solid defensive catcher, with a good arm. He is also very athletic for a catcher, with above-average speed.

13. Oakland Athletics: Grant Green SS Southern California

Before the season, Grant was expected to be one of the first three picks in the draft. However, he has played his way down, as many now question his ability to stay at short, as well as his power. Green does, however, have good hitting ability, and average to above-average speed. His arm is also at least average, leaning above-average slightly. However, (milb.com) he has some trouble ranging up the middle and his power is more line-drive power than anything else, but he could hit 15-20 homeruns. Oakland’s MO is established college players, which makes it Green or Brothers in my book. The A’s are also attached to Donavan Tate, should he fall, and his reported $6 million price tag, so signing Green should be no problem. By the way, I love me some Green. I think he’ll stick at short, and be a near .300 hitter with 15-20 homeruns… that’s enough.

14. Texas Rangers: Shelby Miller HS Brownwood HS (Texas)

If there was a lock this late in the draft, it’d be Miller to the Rangers. It fits there MO, he’s local, it works. He throws in the mid 90s with a good curve in the mid 70s, but he has some command issues. He’s plenty projectable. Let me double check if this makes sense: Texas usually takes the BPA; money shouldn’t be a problem and they like their fire-ballers, yep, Miller does makes sense.

15. Cleveland Indians : Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt

Mike Minor has been rumored all over the first round, but there is no clear consensus on who that one team is who takes him. The Indians want Miller, but he won’t get there. So, it will be the best college player on their board. The question is who is the top college arm on their board? It could be Minor, Rex Brothers, James Paxton or Eric Arnett. I picked Minor. Mainly because he would fall in my mock if I didn’t put him here (if he doesn’t go here, my prediction is 19 to the Cardinals. Minor is a low ceiling/high floor starter. He throws a low 90s fastball, along with both a slider and curveball, and a good enough changeup. He probably has 4/5 starter upside.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks : Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb

17. Arizona Diamondbacks: Bobby Borchering 3B Bishop Verot HS (Florida )

Here’s the first pair of D’back picks. They like to go high upside HSers early, followed by college floor. Borchering has one of the best bats in the draft. He is switch hitter with great bat speed and raw power from both sides. Many believe he will have to eventually move to first but, I think he could stay at third. His speed is average or a little below. His arm is about average as well.

Brothers is a guy I like a lot. He throws his fastball in the mid 90s, he also throws a good slider, with a lot of movement, hasn’t thrown his changeup too much. He’s a rare lefty that can dial his fastball up to 96/97 mph and I think his ceiling is 2/3 starter if he develops his changeup.

18. Florida Marlins : Chad James LHP Yukon HS (Oklahoma )

Chad James is the guy I’m hoping falls to the ‘Stros at 21, but it’s unlikely he will as he is coveted by the D’backs, Marlins, Cardinals and Blue Jays. The Marlins develop HS pitching very well, so James makes sense here. If Borchering gets to here, I could see the Marlins taking the in-state third basemen. James is a lefty with a low 90s fastball, he has touched 95 mph. He also throws an above-average power curve and above-average changeup. He has plenty of projection. I seriously don’t know why James isn’t considered one of the elite HS arms, but one team will benefit as a result in the 16-22 range.

19. St. Louis Cardinals : James Paxton LHP Kentucky

Word is the Cardinals are leaning left-handed pitcher, the options being: Minor, Brothers, James and Paxton. One of them will fall, and in this scenario it’s the Boras corp. client, Paxton. Paxton throws in the mid-to-high 90s, along with a hard slider and a change, which isn’t worth praising. I don’t like Paxton, lack of a real changeup, command, questionable mechanics, Boras, but it seems like the Cards do, so he’s the pick.

20. Toronto Blue Jays: Eric Arnett RHP Indiana

This was a tough one. I’ve been hearing college arm. The Jays would have liked Jenkins, Minor or Brothers, but none of them fell. I also think Chad James is an option, although history would show the Jays shy away from HS arms in the early rounds, and Matt Hobgood is still an option. Kyle Gibson, post-injury, has been rumored here and I think Mike Trout or Tim Wheeler are options here. Trout has one of the highest upsides amongst position players and Wheeler is the next best college bat. I went with the college arm route and took Arnett, although I am far less than confident with that pick. Arnett is a 6’5” righty, who throws in the mid 90s, he also throws a slider in the high 70s/low 80s which can get batters out. His changeup needs some work. I’m not in love with this selection, but that’s mostly because I’m not in love with Arnett, who has risen this season, after an increase in velocity. I also am not high on his secondary pitches or command, but he has to go somewhere in the first round… I guess, and he could go as high as 15.

21. Houston Astros: Slade Heathcott LHP/OF Texas HS (Texas)

I have gone over this pick again and again. I have changed my mind many times, and I still have no clue. I have studied Astros drafts, particularly last year’s. I have looked at the pool of names, over-and-over again, but still nothing looks right. What does look right is Chad James. He’d be perfect. He’s the top guy on my wish list, but I really don’t think he’s going to last here, and I decided to adhere to my integrity as a blogger (ha) and have him go earlier. I also like Rex Brothers, but he also will probably be gone. There are other names in consideration here: Matt Hobgood would make sense as the next best HS arm, Jared Mitchell is the best athlete, I call Tim Wheeler “the Jason Castro of this draft”, and I started a recent buzz about Mike Trout. Seriously, I participated in John Sickel’s mock draft on Saturday and took Trout with his pick, and since then, a bunch of people have started talking about Trout to the Astros. I would love to see it, but I’m afraid Houston isn’t taking an OF from New Jersey and people just went to John’s website saw the pick, and liked… maybe I’m just being ethnocentric, I don’t know. Anyways, the guy at thebaseballdraftreport.com said, “ a great tip though for any young mockers out there – go with as many off the wall picks as possible because, on the off chance you get lucky and nail one of them, you’ll be lauded as a prophet. Mock drafts almost work counter to basic human nature as people often forget the bad picks, but clearly remember the good ones.” (By the way I suggest thebaseballdraftreport.com to anyone interested in the draft, lots of good insight) I like this idea. Houston is my favorite team, so I am going to hook them up with one of my favorite draft prospects, Slade Heathcott and actually it could happen... Heathcott has one of the five highest upsides in the draft (among position players). However, he has signability issues and character issues, which is why most teams are considering him for the second and third rounds. The Yankees, among other teams are thinking about nabbing Heathcott in the first, due to the lack of solid options. The Astros are also high on Heathcott, plus the all important, Texas factor. So, why can’t the Astros jump on Heathcott? One thing I can tell you about Bobby Heck and the current Astros draft philosophy is, they do not care about the consensus. They will take whoever they believe to be the BPA, and it could be Heathcott. Look at Jason Castro and Jordan Lyles from last draft? Now go look at how they’re doing in their first full season… Jason Castro, by the way, for all you Astros fans, was called up to AA Corpus Christi and will be ready for Wednesday’s game. Heathcott is a five-tool outfielder. According to milb.com, he has “plus hitting ability”, “plus power to all fields”, above-average speed, plus arm strength and a plus defender. I am going to try hard, to will this pick into reality.

22. Minnesota Twins: Jiovanni Mier SS Bonita HS (California)

The MO on the Twins: HS bats, college arms. Mier is the kind of toolsy player they like and with the first couple of tiers of college pitchers gone; he seems like an obvious choice. Mier is the top HS shortstop amongst a deep class. He has all the defensive tools to stay at short too. He also has some hitting ability, with a little power to go with it.

23. Chicago White Sox: Andrew Oliver LHP Oklahoma State

Oliver throws a mid 90s fastball along with a plus changeup, but he does not really have a breaking pitch yet. He is also a Boras corp. client, but that shouldn’t bother the Chi Sox. The White Sox have, however, been attached to several of the toolsy outfielders still around: Trout, Everett Williams and Reymond Fuentes.

24. Los Angeles Angels : Tyler Skaggs LHP Santa Monica HS (California)

25. Los Angeles Angels : Mike Trout OF Milville HS (New Jersey)

Another back-to-back pick, remember if Skaggs goes 25 or Trout goes 24, I’m still counting it as a correct pick. The Angels, like the D’backs have an abundance of early round pick, so they could do almost anything with them, but based on their philosophy and lack of talent in their system, they’ll go HS, HS, HS, early and often. Skaggs is a California arm. He throws a low 90s fastball, but should add more velocity as he matures; he is 6’5” 180 and offers plenty of projection, and some. Skaggs also throws a plus curveball in the low 70s.

Trout, like I’ve said is one of the ten best bats in the draft and I’ve heard it said that he is the most likely guy in the class to join the 30-30 club. He’s a five-tooler with solid defensive skills and a plus arm.

26. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Gould RHP Maize HS Kansas

Gould just looks like a Brewers pick. I get a Jake Odorizzi vibe from him, in fact. He throws his fastball in the low 90s and can get into the mid 90s a little. He also throws a plus curve and a decent enough changeup. Gould also has that all important, no not “Texas factor”, projection thing. He’s 6’4” 190 after all.

27. Seattle Mariners: Drew Storen RHP Stanford

Storen is the top closer in the class, but I think he’ll be drafted as a starter, and the Mariners seem like a team that would do it. He throws his fastball in the low 90s with good movement. He also throws his curve in the low 80s and has an effective changeup. That three pitch mix makes me think starter. The Mariners are big on college players in the draft, by the way.

28. Boston Red Sox: Matt Purke HS Klein HS (Texas)

Purke is easily one of the fifteen best players in the draft, but he wants so much money and there are only so many teams that are going to pay $5 million + for a prospect. Which means someone is going to fall and the likely candidate is Purke. So, some team at the bottom of the draft will luck out, possibly the Red Sox. Purke throws his fastball in the low 90s, touching 95. I’ve said that a lot, I mean, a lot of pitchers throw in the low 90s touching 95. He throws his curve in the high 70s and has a good changeup. He also has good command and a projectable body.

29. New York Yankees: Matt Hobgood RHP Norco HS (California)

New York needs talent and s high school arm as good as Hobgood’s should be tough to pass up. SS/RHP David Renfroe (this year’s Casey Kelly and Slade Heathcott have been rumored here. Hobgood throws his fastball in the low 90s, he also throws a plus curve in the mid 70s, according to milb.com it could be the best curve among HS pitchers in the class. He doesn’t have a changeup though, so he’ll need to work on a third pitch.

30. Tampa Bay Rays: Max Stassi C Yuba City HS (California)

The Rays’ position of need on the farm is at catcher, and with Stassi available need happens to coincide with the BPA. Stassi has great instincts and makeup; he also has all the defensive tools behind the plate and an average arm. His bat should be good and he has some power.

31. Chicago Cubs: AJ Pollock OF Notre Dame

The last four years, 85% of Cubs picks in the top 149 pick have been college players. Pollock happens to be a personal favorite of mine, and it is tough to let him go to the Cubs, but the pick makes sense. Pollock has a very advanced approach at the plate, and has gap power. He is an above-average runner with great instincts. He is a good fielder in center with an average arm.

32. Colorado Rockies: Tim Wheeler OF Sacramento State

Kyle Gibson is rumored here but I’m not quite buying it. Although, interesting move for the Rockies, if it happens, more on that later… again, if it happens. Wheeler makes sense as the BPA and a college player; remember what I said about the Rockies and college players? Wheeler makes good contact, with some power at times, and has plus speed. He also has an average arm, but plus range in center. That’s the first round.

Compensation Round A

Now that we’re done with the first round, the blurbs are going to be much shorter and to the point.

33. Seattle Mariners : Matt Davidson 3B Yucaipa HS (California )

Davidson has some of the greatest power potential in the draft, but like Borchering may have to move off first. Personally, I think he can stay at third, though. Seattle tends to lean college, but Davidson’s power bat may be too much to pass up and this pick would continue a stellar draft for the Mariners.

34. Colorado Rockies : Alex Wilson RHP Texas A&M

The Rockies pick for a third time and I have them once again taking a college right hander. Wilson, however, is not much like their first pick Mike Leake. He has a mid 90s fastball, a sometimes plus slider he throws in the mid 80s a curveball and changeup, although the latter two aren’t nearly a useful as the first two. Wilson pitched from the Texas A&M bullpen the second half of the season, but he still profiles as a starter with a pretty high ceiling.

35. Arizona Diamondbacks : Brett Jackson OF California

Jackson is another personal fav. He has a lot of raw power and some hitting ability, but strikes out a lot. He also is an above-average runner. He has a plus arm and is a decent fielder in center.

36. Los Angeles Dodgers : Madison Younginer RHP Mauldin HS (South Carolina )

The Dodgers didn’t have a first round pick, so should go for a lot of upside with this pick… how about Younginer, who was a reliever in high school, but will be tried out as a starter in pro ball. He has a mid 90s fastball and projection.

37. Toronto Blue Jays : Jared Mitchell OF Louisiana State University

Mitchell is one of the very best athletes in the draft, and was a possibility for the Astros in round one. His ceiling is a Carl Crawford type outfielder with more power.

38. Chicago White Sox : Rich Poythress 1B Georgia

Poythress is one of the best pure hitters in the draft. Again I opt against the toolsy OF rumors and I really don’t know why.

39. Milwaukee Brewers : Tommy Joseph C Horizon HS (Arizona )

Joseph has enormous raw power and a chance to play behind the plate, with a plus arm. He seems like a fit for the Brewers to me.

40. Los Angeles Angels : Reymond Fuentes OF Puerto Rico

Fuentes is one of the toolsy outfielders the White Sox are after. However, I think he’s a better fit for the Angels.

41. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mychal Givens SS Plant HS (Florida)

Givens throws 97 mph off a mound, but it seems like most teams now like him as a high upside HS shortstop. Is he a possible five-tooler?

42. Los Angeles Angels: Nick Franklin SS Lake Brantley HS (Florida)

I really like this pick. Franklin does just about everything well, with great makeup and the ability to stay at short long term.

43. Cincinnati Reds : Marc Krauss 3B/OF Ohio

I don’t know that much about Krauss, he is one of the college ranks’ best power hitters , that’s about it. I just love the prospect of the Ohio to Ohio connection here.

44. Texas Rangers : Everett Williams OF McCallum HS (Texas )

Williams is another toolsy outfielder, with good power potential and speed. The Astros were at one time considering him in the first, but have since soured on him a little.

45. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jason Kipnis OF Arizona State

Arizona will take guys from Arizona State, they would love Leake, and Kipnis will sign for slot, an essential for teams with so many early picks. Kipnis has about average tools across the board.

46. Minnesota Twins : Sam Dyson RHP South Carolina

Dyson is a draft-eligible sophomore (Drew Storen is too actually), which means he has added leverage and could potentially be tougher to sign as a result. He has a mid 90s fastball and mid 80s slider.

47. Milwaukee Brewers: Kentrail Davis OF Tennessee

Davis is also a draft-eligible sophomore, he was supposed to be a first rounder at the start of the season, but was only ok. Many believe he would benefit greatly from a junior season. Davis could have a good power/speed combo, but some think he won’t be able to play center in the future, hurting his value.

48. Los Angeles Angels: Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri

Here’s where I have Gibson. It’s really just a stab in the dark. Many think Gibson will still find his way in the first round, but I don’t really want to see a team waste a pick. The Angels have money, multiple picks and are in need of great value. When healthy, Gibson throws a low 90s/high 80s fastball with one of the best sliders in the draft and above-average changeup with above-average command.

49. Pittsburgh Pirates : Tony Sanchez C Boston College

Tony Sanchez is the top college catcher, and is unlikely to fall this far, but he could. If he does, it would work out greatly for the Pirates, who were considering him for the first round. Sanchez has some hit ability, some power, average speed, a decent arm and good skills behind the plate. He’s a prospect you shrug your shoulders at, because, other than his ability to stay behind the plate, no tool really stands out, which is probably why he’s slipped in my mock. But, those tools in a catcher are very useful. The Pirates like to take college players, they could use a catcher in their system (who couldn’t) and Sanchez would be the BPA here. That’s the first sandwich round.

My Mock Draft

byronlhsdrmr — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 14:19:29 -0000

The usual baseball america, pg crosscheckers and milb.com resources...

First Round

1. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State

2. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley OF North Carolina

3. San Diego Padres: Donavan Tate OF Cartersville HS (Georgia)

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aaron Crow RHP Fort Worth (University of Missouri)

5. Baltimore Orioles: Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley HS (California)

6. San Francisco Giants: Tanner Scheppers RHP St. Paul (Fresno State)

7. Atlanta Braves: Zack Wheeler RHP East Paulding HS (Georgia)

8. Cincinnati Reds: Alex White RHP North Carolina

9. Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner RHP Westminster Christian Academy (Missouri)

10. Washington Nationals: Chad Jenkins RHP Kennesaw State

11. Colorado Rockies: Mike Leake RHP Arizona State

12. Kansas City Royals: Wil Myers C Wesleyan Christian Academy (North Carolina)

13. Oakland Athletics: Grant Green SS Southern California

14. Texas Rangers: Shelby Miller HS Brownwood HS (Texas)

15. Cleveland Indians : Mike Minor LHP Vanderbilt

16. Arizona Diamondbacks : Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb

17. Arizona Diamondbacks: Bobby Borchering 3B Bishop Verot HS (Florida )

18. Florida Marlins : Chad James LHP Yukon HS (Oklahoma )

19. St. Louis Cardinals : James Paxton LHP Kentucky

20. Toronto Blue Jays: Eric Arnett RHP Indiana

21. Houston Astros: Slade Heathcott LHP/OF Texas HS (Texas)

22. Minnesota Twins: Jiovanni Mier SS Bonita HS (California)

23. Chicago White Sox: Andrew Oliver LHP Oklahoma State

24. Los Angeles Angels : Tyler Skaggs LHP Santa Monica HS (California)

25. Los Angeles Angels : Mike Trout OF Milville HS (New Jersey)

26. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Gould RHP Maize HS Kansas

27. Seattle Mariners: Drew Storen RHP Stanford

28. Boston Red Sox: Matt Purke HS Klein HS (Texas)

29. New York Yankees: Matt Hobgood RHP Norco HS (California)

30. Tampa Bay Rays: Max Stassi C Yuba City HS (California)

31. Chicago Cubs: AJ Pollock OF Notre Dame

32. Colorado Rockies: Tim Wheeler OF Sacramento State

Compensation Round A

Now that we’re done with the first round, the blurbs are going to be much shorter and to the point.

33. Seattle Mariners : Matt Davidson 3B Yucaipa HS (California )

34. Colorado Rockies : Alex Wilson RHP Texas A&M

35. Arizona Diamondbacks : Brett Jackson OF California

Jackson is another personal fav. He has a lot of raw power and some hitting ability, but strikes out a lot. He also is an above-average runner. He has a plus arm and is a decent fielder in center.

36. Los Angeles Dodgers : Madison Younginer RHP Mauldin HS (South Carolina )

37. Toronto Blue Jays : Jared Mitchell OF Louisiana State University

Mitchell is one of the very best athletes in the draft, and was a possibility for the Astros in round one. His ceiling is a Carl Crawford type outfielder with more power.

38. Chicago White Sox : Rich Poythress 1B Georgia

Poythress is one of the best pure hitters in the draft. Again I opt against the toolsy OF rumors and I really don’t know why.

39. Milwaukee Brewers : Tommy Joseph C Horizon HS (Arizona )

Joseph has enormous raw power and a chance to play behind the plate, with a plus arm. He seems like a fit for the Brewers to me.

40. Los Angeles Angels : Reymond Fuentes OF Puerto Rico

Fuentes is one of the toolsy outfielders the White Sox are after. However, I think he’s a better fit for the Angels.

41. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mychal Givens SS Plant HS (Florida)

Givens throws 97 mph off a mound, but it seems like most teams now like him as a high upside HS shortstop. Is he a possible five-tooler?

42. Los Angeles Angels: Nick Franklin SS Lake Brantley HS (Florida)

I really like this pick. Franklin does just about everything well, with great makeup and the ability to stay at short long term.

43. Cincinnati Reds : Marc Krauss 3B/OF Ohio

I don’t know that much about Krauss, he is one of the college ranks’ best power hitters , that’s about it. I just love the prospect of the Ohio to Ohio connection here.

44. Texas Rangers : Everett Williams OF McCallum HS (Texas )

Williams is another toolsy outfielder, with good power potential and speed. The Astros were at one time considering him in the first, but have since soured on him a little.

45. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jason Kipnis OF Arizona State

Arizona will take guys from Arizona State, they would love Leake, and Kipnis will sign for slot, an essential for teams with so many early picks. Kipnis has about average tools across the board.

46. Minnesota Twins : Sam Dyson RHP South Carolina

47. Milwaukee Brewers: Kentrail Davis OF Tennessee

48. Los Angeles Angels: Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri

49. Pittsburgh Pirates : Tony Sanchez C Boston College

MOD: Astros Draft Review

byronlhsdrmr — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:34:29 -0000

21 Mike Trout OF Millville HS (New Jersey)

69 Colton Cain LHP/1B Walxahachie HS (Texas)

100 Kendal Volz RHP Baylor

111 Jake Cowan RHP San Jacinto JC (Texas)

Chad James was the guy on top of my list at pick 21, followed closely by Rex Brothers, I was really hoping one of those two would fall to me. My contingency plan was a group of outfielders: Everett Williams, Jared Mitchell, Tim Wheeler; even though the outfield (as well as behind the plate) is where Houston has the most depth in their system. I was very surprised - and thankful - Mike Trout fell to me and couldn't pass him up, he offers one of the highest upsides in the draft, especially on offense.

In the second round I fell amongst some tough times, as my top options, David Renfroe, Slade Heathcott, Todd Glaesman were snatched up pretty quickly. I countered with a new list, which included Jeff Malm and Randal Grichuk, along with Cain. Grichuk and Malm were taken in the two picks preceeding my own, so I was left with Cain. Cain should be a difficult sign, but last year's draft gave me some hope that a deal can be done this year. Cain would join a group of young pitchers, that aready establishing themselves in the low minors for the Astros: Jordan Lyles, Ross Seaton, Kyle Greenwalt, Robert Bono, Henry Villar and Brad Dydalewicz.

Bobby Heck has made his admiration of the "depth of pitching" in the Big 12 clear. I also considered A.J. Morris here. However, Kendal Volz was the clear pick for me. Volz was, afterall, being considered as a first rounder only a couple of months ago. He also provides a good amount of upside from the third round as a potential 2/3 starter. He has three good pitchers, including a mid 90s fastball. After his showing in last year's Olympics last year, as the closer, he should make a solid reliever, if he fails as a starter.

Jake Cowan is one of the best, in my mind, the best, junior college players in this draft. This was the last pick of our draft, and to be honest, everyone on my board was gone. Two or three picks from mine, Jake Cowan's name popped into my head, and he become the choice. Cowan is certainly worthy of this pick, and I would be satisfied if he became the pick on Tuesday.

Overall I am pretty satisfied with this draft. Like John said, it is a good mix of players. Even though many of the picks were not my first choices and actually were contingency plans, I recieved good value at each pick, and I think Volz is a steal in the third. Now if only Ed Wade could work on trading Tejada and Valverde, Houston would be well on their way to reestablishing their farm system.

MOD Astros #3

byronlhsdrmr — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 19:00:49 -0000

This will be the final MOD for the Astros, in preparation for Saturday's mock.

First, pick 21, I have narrowed Bobby Heck's board to three players. One of which should be available. They are Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb, Chad James LHP HS Oklahoma and Everett Williams OF HS Texas. Please vote on the pollin case two or more of these three are available. James and Brothers we have discussed before and determined as top choices, Williams is new to the list, but his upside certainly warrants the pick. He is one of the best athletes in the draft and has the best speed/power combo in the draft among the HS ranks. Other options, if all three are taken are: Tyler Skaggs, Matt Hobgood, Mike Trout, Jared Mitchell, Eric Arnett and James Paxton.

For picks 69, 100 and 111, I am looking to go with athletes and high upside arms. Much in the mold of Bobby Heck's 2008 draft, when he picked Lyles, Jay Austin and Ross Seaton. I will still look for a shortstop, but will not sacrifice better value for one. I would appreciate suggestions for players that fit the above mold and your thoughts on the players I've mentioned, either in this post or in the past.

Poll

If available who would you draft at 21?

Rex Brothers LHP Lipscomb

8 votes

Chad James LHP HS Oklahoma

9 votes

Everett Williams OF HS Texas

2 votes

19 votes | Poll has closed

MOD Astros #2

byronlhsdrmr — Wed, 27 May 2009 12:59:41 -0000

Thank you to those who have been participating thus far. In the first MOD we speculated a little on the Astros' gameplan and hashed out some names for pick 21. Here's a recap:

Bobby Heck doesn't care what the experts say, he's going to take the guy he feels is best, 'nough said

We're leaning towards a pitcher in round one, but won't be afraid to take a bat

Considered at pick 21 (in no particular order):

Rex Brothers

Eric Arnett

Chad James

Tyler Skaggs

Jared Mitchell

Tim Wheeler

Someone who falls

As we move forward feel free to make a case for someone new to join this list. Or give me some feedback as to who you think is the top guy on the list.

Next order of business is Houston's second and two third round picks at 69, 100 and 111. First,, what should we do with these picks? Where might we look to go overslot? Who are some guys we might want to target? Who are some local high school products, who will be a tough sign, a la Ross Seaton, that we could steal late? We're looking for upside with these picks, much like what Houston did last year: Lyles in the supp. Jay Austin in the second, Chase Davidson and Ross Seaton in the third. With these picks it is all about trying to hit a homerun with one of the picks.

I still want to take a shortstop at some point with these picks, preferbly one who will stay at the position and hit (who doesn't, right?). Who do you think fits this mold? Please provide names and a brief description/scouting report. I have some ideas, but would like to hear what all of you have to say before I divulge mine.

Let's get talking.

MOD Astros 1.1

byronlhsdrmr — Thu, 14 May 2009 18:25:44 -0000

5/13/09

Excuse me, as I slide my legs into Bobby Heck's ironed slacks, and tie his shoes tightly onto my feet.

I am very excited about the Astros' draft prospects going in, and although I am wearing the pants [Bobby Heck's pants at that], I appreciate those of you who are willing to advise me. I feel as though, together we can come up with a plan that would most benefit the Astros (hypothetically) and this mock draft.

We are picking four times: 21, 69, 100, and 111.

We should spend this entry preparing a plan of attack. With that in mind, let me share with you my purpose. I believe it is our duty to serve this mock draft by trying our best to become the Astros front office. This will require us to stop thinking, what would we like to see happen, which players are my favorite and begin asking the questions, who are the Astros targeting? Which players best fit Bobby Heck and Ed Wade's draft philosophies? What areas will Houston target and when?

So, with the 21st pick what are the Astros likely to take (and why)? I'm looking for responses like, for example, Houston is definitely looking to take a HS arm in the first round. Last year they scored big with Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton, they can score a lefty counterpart in Tyler Skaggs in the first round here. Basically what do you think Houston will look to do in the draft, and if you wish to get specific with each pick, feel free to. If you wish to mention a name or two, you are interested in, go ahead and name them, but be sure to give support for that player, how do they fit in Houston's draft plans. We will discuss particular names at a later time. Right now my main is to establish a plan. I want to thank you all for participating and I look forward to reading and discussing your ideas.

The last manner of business would be selecting a deputy scouting director, to manage things when I am not around. If you are interested please say so, I am not in a rush to make that decision, but would like to have the matter settled by next week. I will choose among those interested based on participation, and chemistry. I want someone whose thoughts coincide with mine, but also is willing to disagree, as long as they have solid information to back them up.

MOD Astros #1

byronlhsdrmr — Wed, 13 May 2009 16:27:31 -0000

5/13/09

Excuse me, as I slide my legs into Bobby Heck's ironed slacks, and tie his shoes tightly onto my feet.

We are picking four times: 21, 69, 100, and 111.