I think everyone assumes that our SS will either come via trade...or we will resign Gonzalez to a one year deal.    I have personally have been under the assumption that it will be via a trade.  However, I have to question if that is the best idea. 

We have mentioned some of the options already: Aybar, Scutaro, etc.  Yes they would be upgrades at SS.  However, at what cost?  Would be better off looking for a SS on the cheap and put that extra money...prospects into adding a legit LF bat? 

If you look at some of the numbers Gonzalez provided very little in the way of overall  value in terms of WAR.

Gonazalez provided a 1.1 WAR for the year according to Fangraphs.

Compared to:

 Barmes 3.1

Ronnie Cedeno 1.4  (May God have mercy on my soul for suggesting Ronnie Cedeno as an upgrade of any sort). 

Ramon Santiago had a 1.4 WAR. 

Theriot had a .7 (and that is w only 4 SBs.  He steals his more typical 18-20 and that value goes up)

Brendan Ryan was 2.6

Heck...Jack Wilson typically has had a +1 in years he played the full season.

My point is that if Gonzalez is going to cost another 2.5 million per for a 1 or 2 year contract....are we better off going cheaper and using those resources elsewhere?  It looks to me that it isn't a question of how good can we get at SS...but how bad can we afford to be?  If you are going to be bad...be bad and cheap?   Could we  make up that different with a legit bat in the OF and a little better depth on the bench.

Not sure if I have come to a specific conclusion but it did make me wonder if the opportunity cost to get a "good" SS is worth it.

Too bad it is not for the Braves.  The Indians just picked up Austin Kearns on a minor league deal.  Do I want Austin Kearns as my starting RF...no.  Would I like to have him in spring training to see if he can get his swing back...yes.  The worst case scenario for the Indians is that they have an extra OF bat in the spring that can play excellent corner OF defense...and can take a walk to get on base (He only hit .195 and his OBP was .336 in'09.  The predictions are for him to hit .250 with an OBP of about .350 next year) and could...COULD...end up being a steal if he can approach his old self. 

The cost...some spring training ABs.  We have a lot of people that are excited about the idea of some of the non-roster invites for Spring Training which is fine.  However, if Austin Kearns could be had on a minor league contract then why werent we going after him?  He makes a lot more sense to me then Mitch Jones....Kearns plays good OF defense...has done it previously in the majors...and I think he is still younger then Jones at 29.  Not that each signing is mutually exclusive ...and that signing Jones (I think it was Mitch) to a minor league deal is a bad thing..but I don't want to be entering into the 2nd week of June with our backup OFer being a career minor league guy at 31 if there are other options to consider in addition.

I realize that Austin Kearns suddenly awakening to become the hitter he was 4 years ago is unlikely.  However, if you have confidence in your staff..and their ability to help a player get back on track...wouldn't you want to take a chance on him if you are the Braves?  If you are Kearns...wouldn't the Braves be a team you would be interested in looking at?  They are a team that could compete...but has blatant openings in their OF right now...that could afford you the opportunity to get signifigant playing time if you can turn things around.  If the Braves are as cash strapped as it seems these days...then the front office needs to be more aggressive about finding these low risk-high reward scenarios.  I applaud the Glaus signing for this reason...but to see a NO RISK...high reward player fall off the board like Kearns on a minor league deal frustrates me....especially if we end up signing $(%*&$ Nady for 6 million a year!

I am reading too much upside into Kearns? Or would there be a negative I was missing?

We have all been reading about the Braves surplus of pitching...we are all either advocating or reading about the Braves trading from this surplus to acquire a RH bat to play LF or RF.  Yes-it would be nice to have a stud #4 hitter in RF....but ask yourself.  Do we really have a surplus of starting pitching?

Lowe is not young, and while he has been the bastion of health for a number of years, would it be surprising if he broke down next year?  No-He has ALOT of innings on that body.

Hudson is one year removed from Tommy John and isn't a spring chicken either.  Would we be surprised if he had one..or two stints on the DL next year?

Vazquez has also been very healthy and strong-but he isn't exactly young either.  He has also pitched A LOT of innings over the years.

KK-Seems ok

Hanson-No injury history but you also have to respect his workload next year. 

All that being said....do we really have "surplus."  I think the Red Sox proved that a planned "surplus" can end up being a deficit real fast.  That being said...if we made a trade and moved one of our starters-who would be the emergency #5 guy?  Medlen would have been the obvious choice but if he is going to be prepared to pitch all year in the pen we can't have him going back and forth.  He needs to really work as a bullpen guy.

So if we trade one of our starters...we almost have to go sign (or have someone included in the trade) that could step in and be the long guy/#5 guy in the rotation when someone goes down. 

Is trading a starter before spring training really a good idea then?  So unless someone is willing to unload Lowe's contract for us-as is-do we really want to move someone?

Here is a question: why are the Braves 35-40 and the Giants are 41 and 34?  I know the Giant's rotation and pitching staff in general, has been great.  However, the Braves pitching-especially the starting pitching-has been really good.  Both teams have questionable offenses.  We all know of the Braves struggles but the Giants have Rowand leading off, and Molina batting clean up. The balance of their line up consits of the likes of their Rookie 1B who has hit only 5Hrs, Fred Lewis, Randy Winn, Renteria, etc.  The only above average hitter they have is probably Sandoval.  Now I haven't gone through and looked at the run differential, looked  the schedule to date for the Giants, nor really seen much of them on TV yet so I thought I would ask this question...What are Bochy and the Giants doing to score enough runs to be 7 games above .500 that the Braves are not?  Are they running more?  Does everyone up and down the line up hit...just enough? 

Any thoughts on what they are doing well (besides pitching lights out)? Anything that Braves good be doing similiar to help the offense move?

They are now reporting that Griffey is going back to Seattle.  What is up with this...twice we have guys in hand and now we have nothing!  If Griffey wanted to go b back to Seattle why did he reach out to the Braves?  I thought he wanted to be close to family? I thought he wanted to play for Bobby Cox?  I thought he wanted another chance at the post season?

Were we used AGAIN to extract a few more dollars? 

Now what? Garrett Anderson?  No thanks.  I will take my chances and money with Jones or Schaefer.

If the season were to start today...who is our LFer? Heck you can even ask the question of who is our RF and CF the way last season went.

Joking aside we know that Frenchy starts in RF and CF will be a try out between Blanco/Schaeffer/Anderson.  However, who is honestly our LF right now? Diaz?  If we are going to do a mix and match type routine in CF and LF do we need more cheap but "upside" players?  Are the Braves looking at Brandon Jones as the dominant part of a LF platoon?

We could debate this scenario for another 6 mos but I was wondering if the Braves have actually made any kind statement or indicator as to what the company line is at the moment.

There has been a couple notes in various sources indicating that the Yankees want to liquidate some of their depth in the OF-This includes Matsui, Damon, and/or Swisher. 

Continue reading this post »

If I am Frank Wren I wake up today feeling refreshed, relieved and MOTIVATED.  Yes it would have been nice to take Burnett but as the deal went on the cost was getting out of hand for 90% of the teams in baseball.  (I think people are forgetting that he has played about the same number of games over the past few years as Sheets and is asking for a lot of money over a long period of time).  It could have been a great sign or a great bust.  But now the temptation is gone and our risk has been averted.  So now it is time to look at a couple different scenarios and move fast with confidence and direction. If I am Frank Wren waking up on this Saturday morning I see two directions...

Continue reading this post »

We have all heard the same names in the LF scenarios for the Braves:

Dye

Ludwick

Dunn

Ibanez

Ankiel

and more recently names like Hart or Hermedia have come up.  Given that many of these options appear to be expensive I was trying to look at some other options that may not have been mentioned but could provide some more creative solutions to the issues.

Continue reading this post »

The bench was discussed on the telecast a good bit today and Wren brought up the need to have a proven PH on the bench. Someone that could strike some fear into the opposition when trying to determien match ups.

That being said I am not sure would might be available.  I went through and was thinking abotu what teams need pitching and what team might take on a free swinging LH 1B with potential power upside.

Then it came to me: the Giants.  They need EVERYTHING.  So would Rich Aurillia fill the need of PH and back up corner infielder for the Braves? If so, would the Giants be willing to part with him for one of the Braves's extra arms and Thorman? Given how thin they look everywhere the could probably take someone like Thorman on and give him a few ABs in the hope of catching lightning in a bottle.  Aurillia has no value for them as they are going to finish dead last anyway with that offense. I don't care how good your Starting pitching is.

I honestly don't think Chipper hamstring is serious.  But again, it begs the question. When he does get injured who is going to play 3B? I am guessing that Prado is the most obvious choice for extended playing time. Especially early in the season as Infante is still not even available.  I would argue that if Chipper actually went on the DL that Infante can't hit enough to be an option either.  Prado, however, I think can hold his own with the bat as a #8 hitter. Otherwise; who else is there?  Pena?  

This is one area I would have loved to see the Braves expand on. If just a little.  Looking at the bench right now I just don't see that go to pinch hitter like a Dwight Smith, or a Franco of years past.  Diaz had been that guy the last couple of years but with him in a quasi regular role I don't think they have that person.

I think we all saw last year the horror of watching Woodard, Thorman and Orr come up and swing...and swing with absolute futility as pinch hitters.  Harris was hot for a little while and when Diaz wasn't starting he was a PH extraordinaire.  However, who is that person going to be this year?
Infante?  Infante may be a hell of a glove guy and can play everything but closer but he is not a "professional bat off the bench."  His career OBP is .298. He is still young and could get better but my hunch is that he will hit ..well...not so good.

Lopez could actually be the solution as the primary bat off the bench, but is Bobby going to let his back up catcher take a crack in the game early? If that is the case does that mean that Sammons catches on as the #3 catcher and eat up that roster spot?  

Ideally this is where I would like to have seen one more signing...one more trade.  

I just saw that Cintron got signed by the Cubs.  Funny how that works.  We trade to get Infante and they take our prospect and sign Cintron for little or nothing?  I realize that Infante is far better with the glove. However, Cintron to me could be a serviceable PH/Bench player. He is a switch hitter.  He can play multiple positions.  He has a little pop and he makes contact. I realize that his OBP is also poor at .313 but he doesn't strike out.  I tend to believe that this has value for a pinch hitter.  He could also have been someone who could have filled in at 3B if Chipper went down and not have destroyed the line up.

However, now that Cintron is gone who would I like to see for the Braves bench:

1. Jeff Kippinger: The guy does nothing but HIT. He can play multiple positions and hold his own. He doesn't strike out has a little pop...and did I mention that the man can hit?  He could also be a platoon option for KJ at 2B when the urge to platoon strikes Bobby( That is a joke. Please don't platoon KJ again this year!).  He is also a nice insurance policy if Chipper goes down. I don't want to imagine Chipper being out for 2 weeks and Inante getting 40 ABs. I doubt that he would be available from the Reds right now given that the Reds see themselves as potential contenders, but he would have been nice.
2. Robert Fick/Vinnie Rottino/Javier Valentin/Eric Munson/Matt LeCroy All of these guys are kind of the same guy: Not really good catchers but perhaps enough of a bat to help out and be a possible pinch hit option.  Even better is that most of these guys were so bad as catchers that they also learned other positions.  This would be valuable for depth of bench.  It would also allow Bobby to use Javy Lopez early as a PH because he would have someone (besides Matt Diaz) that could catch if needed.
3. Mike Sweeney: I think Mike wants more of a fulltime job but if he would take a role as the Braves primary PH bat and occasional AL DH he would be great. He has said he would be willing to put on the tools of ignorance every once in a while if needed; again a way to have a 3rd catcher on the team without having to waste a roster spot.
4. Shannon Stewart: He can still hit and run a little. He is just not a good OFer anymore. If we have a bench with Brandon Jones and Omar Inante then you could get away with sending Josh Anderson and Greg Blanco to AAA for more work.  If Kotsay got banged up either Infante or Brandon Jones would be able to get you by for a couple of innings..maybe even a game in CF.  Why not put a valuable bat in that roster seat and give Josh Anderson or Blanco an opportunity to get ABs not sit on the bench and only get 85 ABs for the year.  The only way either would get significant time would be if Kotsay got hurt. In that case they can take the Richmond shuttle in and be there in a day. Not a big deal.
5. Mark Lorretta: I think the Astros had to go to Arbitration with him and it probably ended up costing them some money. They are not going to contend this year.  If they would be willing to trade him for a bag of balls and the braves pay his salary. I would take it. He can play the infield and is a good hitter.  Again could be a gapstop at 3B if Chipper gets hurt.
6. Greg Norton: He is one of these guys that comes along and produces every couple of years.  He has put together a couple good years for Tampa Bay coming off their bench. He is a switch hitter and could not kill himself playing 3B/1B/RF/LF.  

Let me look back in time...last year the Braves had a relatively young Lefty who had good had once been a fairly promising starter with good stuff, but questionable control; McBride.  However, McBride's control got worse and the Braves decided to trade him for another lefty, former starter with decent promise, good stuff but limited control in a "change of scenery" kind of trade. Hence the Braves get Will Ledeszma.  

Will doesn't work; decent stuff but total lack of control (and some personal baggage if memory serves me right). Therefore the Braves send him packing to Sand Diego (with another pitching prospect) in exchange for Royce Ring.  

Now Royce Ring is totally different.  He isn't a lefty with good stuff and bad command. He is lefty who doesn't have very good stuff (did at one point but hasn't in the last three years) and poor command.  He doesn't start and is completely a loogy; nothing more.

So to recap...the Braves traded a 25 yr old lefty with good stuff, poort control, and limited success against lefties to the Tigers for a 27yr old lefty with decent stuff, poor contorl, limited success against lefties, and emotial baggage.  Then when that didn't work they trade him to the Padres for another 27 year old this time with marginal stuff, poor control, conditioning problems, and some success against lefties (although his strong LH BAA is offset by the .378 OBP they achieved against him). (Plus they trade away another pitching prospect in the process)

So to date we have netted a marginal 27 yo LH reliever with limited upside for our initial 25 reliever with potential upside?

Then...feeling like they were missing something in the organization....the Braves trade for a new LHP.  And to be somewhat consistent they traded for a 27 yr old reliever, with decent stuff and poor control?

Then..to top it all off the Braves, in a seperate trade, move their best relief prospect to the Cubs for a marginal (albiet established ) left hand reliever...just to make sure they have a LH reliever.

I realize this is a somewhat gross generalization.  However, am I the only who thinks the Braves made a lot of moves for a lot of nothing?

We traded:
2 LHP
2 IFs
2 RHP
(All prospects but one and he has upside in Aybar)
for two 27 yr old LH journeymen and 1 marginal MLB LHP.

Then in a seperate move the Braves trade their top relief prospect to the Cubs for Will Ohman

There were a few interesting people who were non-tendered this week:
Jason Lane
Jason Tyner
Nook Logan
Mark Prior
Mark Hendrickson

Jason Lane: Not a good bat. Not really a CFer. Not a fit for the Braves.

Nook Logan: Can run like the wind but can't find his way to 1B to do so.  No thank you.

Jason Tyner: I think Tyner represents a legit back up option for the Braves.  He would probably hit somewhere around .270 with an OBP around .335-.340.  Not exactly All Star material but if he was cheap I could live with Tyner as a fall back option should one of the rookies not step forward.

Mark Prior: How much would he cost? I think if you are the Braves..or any other team you have to think about him.  If he were willing to sign an incentive type deal I think you do it.  If he doesn't work out...nobody is surprised. If he is healthy you could have an Ace in your #5 spot.

Mark Hendrickson: Could he have been an option for us in the Pen and not have caused us to lose a good prospect for Ohman?

I am ok with what the Braves picked up; Ohman will be helpful and I actually like Infante as the back up infielder.  However, I think that Ascensio was a high price to pay.  He is only 22 an has a high upside.  If you are going to trade him I think you would have wanted him as a cornerstone to a package for a CFer.

As for James.  I think we are being a little hard on Chuck James.  I think he is only 26 or 27 years old and pitched well enough to be an adequate #4 pitcher.  I think we forget that if James were a free agent right now he would be fetching offers for 8 million a year.  Lets slow down and let James settle in to the #4 slot for the Braves in '08.  I think you will see that he will benefit from the extra year, the rotation slotting change, and presence of Glavine. He is someone that could easily turn it around and get 15 wins next year.

I want DeJesus as well but with the market being what it is these days you don't send over a young major league pitcher like James for an DeJesus.  When I was pushing for DeJesus I was envisioning a package that included Smith, Ascensio, and Thorman (just kidding...we have to move him somewhere and the Royals could use a DH with Power.  However, they don't need another LH Bat).  

Does anyone have thoughts on how the bullpen will look going into the year?  Here is what I was looking at for the moment:

Soriano: Closer
Moylan: Set up (assuming his arm doesn't fall off in the offseason due to over useage)
Yates: Middle Relief
Devine: Middle Releif
Virreal:Long Relief/Set up
Carlyle: Long relief/Spot Starter
Acosta/Asciona: One gets a spot and the other becomes trade bait.

I think you defintely keep Virreal but what about Yates? I think his secondary numbers look ok but his ERA was horrible.  

I personally think Devine could work himself into a primary set up/ closer role by mid season.

Carlyle is based on the fact that he came out strong and looking at his minor league numbers he has had better success relieving then starting.

Obviously we work Gonzalez in whenever he gets back.  

I would personally like to see Mahay stay, but I think he is going to price himself out of the Braves range.

Here are a few CF options for the Braves:

-Tori Hunter: Would be nice. He would fit in the lineup well and would provide great defense.  However, I don't think the Braves are going to pay the 15 million a year for 4+ years that it would take to get him.

-Coco Crisp: I think he could be a servicable CF for the Braves and could potential redevelop into a feasible lead off hitter.  The Red Sox will want to unload him given Jacoby but I think the before mention swap of KJ would be a mistake for the Braves (does everyone realize the guy is only 25 years old with only 1.3 years of MLB experience? He is going to get much better).  For the Red Sox it would be a great move as they would probably us KJ to fill their void at 3B.

-David DeJesus: Servicable CF. Could probably be had from KC for a good pitching prospect.  Could help the Braves now. Does not help the Royals in their immediate plans.  DeJesus would be a possible 1, 2 or 7 hitter for the Braves.

Alex Rios: I think he could be had for a prospect heavy deal.  His value as a RF is good. His value as a CF is great. While he would be my first choice I don't think the braves would want to turn over their farm system for him.

Rowand: No. Can you say contract year?

Reed Johnson: He has primarly played LF for the Blue Jays but he is actually an above average CF. Not a long term option but could be had relatively cheap given the depth in the Jays OF right now.  He got hurt last year and Lind took over LF.  They also have CF depth with Rios and Wells so his departure would not leave a void.

Randy Winn/Roberts: I am sure that San Fran would deal both/either. (Is Winn a free agent?) However, both are below average defensively, aren't cheap, and are old.

Juan Pierre: I think the long term plan may be for Kemp to play CF.  If that is the case Pierre could probably be had for a reasonable trade package.  Think he is somewhat overrated as a lead off guy and CF but he is better then who the Braves have in house now.

Willie Harris: Lets see what he does; but I thinkhe is going to be a role player at best.  Unfortunatley I think the second half of the year showed us the real Willie Harris.  

Brandon Jones: He could be an answer but I would prefer to pencil him into a platoon with Diaz in LF right now so we have insurance if he doesn't hit.

Brent Lillebridge: I hope they let him stay in the middle infield.  I don't think his offense has any value in the OF.  I also think that we may see Escobar struggle a little over the couse of the year so it would be nice to have an option.

A couple thoughts on the offense:

-Langerhans has to be sent down or released.  I know the Braves love his D in LF but he isn't going to be a ML Regular.  If they have the roster room keep him as a 4th or 5th OFer;fine.  However, with all the platoon scenarios they are using they don't have much roster room.

-You could play Diaz more in LF which might help some.  But I worry about him becoming over exposed over the course of the season.  If Willie Harris is hitting in AAA I would be open to giving him a shot at LF.  If he got hot he could be a viable Leadoff hitter.  Same goes for Pete Orr.  See if he can hit the ball on a regular basis by letting him play LF.

-Kelly Johnson will be fine.  He will end up the season hitting .265-.280 with an OBP above .360.  However, if an alternate for the leadoff spot could be found I think both he and the Braves could benefit from him hitting lower in the order.  I would not move him to LF at this point.  He appears to be capable of playing 2B and his eventual offensive output at 2B could make him an All Star at 2B where as in LF he would be average.

-FirstBase: As much as it pains me to see so little production out of this position you have to let Thorman either play his way out of the slump or out of the position.  It is too early to pull him.

-Aybar: If Willy doesn't mind playing (Does anyone know what his deal is) I think he could actually be someone who could give the team some productive ABs in either LF or 1B.  I know neither are his natural positions but he could easily handle either and is capable of putting up numbers in the range of .270 avg .350 OBP with 15 or so HRs with 400 ABs. That would be perfectly acceptable at this point for the # 7 or 8 hole.  At this point the Braves don't really need a stud in the #7 or 8 hole.  They just need someone to make contact and hit.  

As we get closer and closer to Spring training there remains a possible LF/Leadoff option for the Braves.  Shannon Stewart.  Shannon had some terrible health problems that kept him out.  Due to leg issues he is no longer a 30 steal guy.  His arm is weak and is not a great LF.  However, he may come cheap and has proven he can get on base successfully. His career OBP is .365 but has shown the ability to get on base at a .380 clip.  He doesn't strike out a lot and can work a count.  Even if you are only able to get 300 ABs out of him. Even if you have to put Langerhans in LF as a late inning replacement...wouldn't he be worth 2 mil to be a lead off hitter?  

I keep hearing Kelly Johnson being mentioned as the mostly likely leadoff hitter.  KJ is going to be an impact hitter (especially playing 2B) but I don't see him as a leadoff hitter.  While Stewart has been one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball during his career.
A line up would look like this:

LF: Shannon Stewart
SS: Renteria
3B: Jones
CF: Jones
C: McCann
RF: Franceuor
1B: Thorman/Wilson
2B: Kelly Johnson

That would be a nice lineup with depth and balance throughout.

Has anyone given any thoughts to the Braves and their strikeout problem?  And no, I am not talking about the pitching staff.  Looking at the '06 roster every position in the lineup added more then 100 strikeouts.  The only exception was McCann (who had a great total of only 54) and Renteria who still had 89 strikeouts.

I am not saying we need a line up full of punch and judy type hitters who ALWAYS make contact.  However, if you expect 6 out of your 8 hitters in a line up to strike out over 90 times per year.  That kills a lot of rallies.  May be something that needs to be considered as the team is looking for options.

For your review here are the numbers:
Giles: 105
Renteria: 89
C Jones: 108 (prorated to 162 games)
A. Jones: 127
McCann: 54 (Now you see why he is hitting here and not LaRoche).
Francoeur: 132
LaRoche: 128
Diaz/Langerhans: 99

I don't see a lot of options for the Braves for either a LF/Leadoff hitter or 2B/leadoff hitter in the free agent market.  Therefore I believe the void could be solved via trade.  My suggestion is David DeJesus of the KC Royals.  He is an above average defensive OF (especially in LF).  He has some POP in his bat but most importantly he doesn't strike out a lot and has a decent OBP (averaging around .360 for his ML career).  He doesn't steal a ton of bases, but Bobby doesn't run alot anyway.  I think he could be a good solution and provide the team some insurance if Andrew get injured, is traded or leaves next year.  If they did this and traded Giles they could also get away with trying a low cost option at 2B and have that person hitting 9th.
(I would suggest at bringing in a Tony Graffanino and letting him fight with the internal candidates for the job).  
From the Royals perspective he has limited immediate value in LF and they have a large number of holes to fill.  Holes that the Braves could assist with in the form of Kelly Johnson or Scott Thorman.