SB Nation User Blog: californiabearfan

Who holds the Bear's record for most pass attempts without an interception?

californiabearfan — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 17:53:04 -0000

Nope, its not Erik Kramer. And it sure ain't Grossman. The answer is Kyle Orton, who broke the record this season. The reason I am reminding everyone of this is because for some reason Bears fans seem to have turned on Kyle Orton. Which to me is just plain madness. Lets take an objective look at Kyle Orton's season as a whole:

Teams we have played and their defensive ranks by passing defense and their ranks of interceptions from NFL.com:

IND: #10 in yards, #9 in INTs (Orton 13-21, 150 YDs, 0 TD, 0 INT)

CAR: #11 in yards, #24 in INTs (Orton 19-32, 159 YDs, 0 TD, 0 INT)

TB: #5 in yards, #4 in INTs (Orton 22-34, 268 YDs, 2 TD, 2 INT)

PHI: #2 in yards, #13 in INTs (Orton 18-34, 199 YDs, 3 TDs, 2 INT)

DET: #26 in yards, #32 in INTs (Orton 32-48, 442 YDs, 2 TDs, 0 INT) 2 games

ATL: #22 in yards, #26 in INTs (Orton 26-43, 286 YDs, 1 TD, 0 INT)

MIN: #18 in yards, #19 in INTs (Orton 32-61. 436 YDs, 4 TDs, 3 INT) 2 games

GB: #12 in yards, #5 in INTs (Orton 27-53, 305 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs) 2 games

STL: #23 in yards, #26 in INTs (Orton 17-28, 132 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT)

JAC: #19 in yards, #16 in INTs (Orton 20-34, 219 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT)

NO: #21 in yards, #9 in INTs (Orton 24-40, 172 yds, 0 TDs, 2 INTs)

There are some very important things to gather out of this information. First of all, take a look at the strength of defenses we have played against. Its not like he is throwing against the bottom dwelling defenses. Kyle Orton has thrown 12 INTs this season. Here are the games:

Tampa Bay: 2 INTs (#5 in yards, #4 in INTs)

Philadelphia: 2 INTs (#2 in yards, #13 in INTs)

Minesota (Game 2): 3 INTs (#18 in yards, #19 in INTs)

Jacksonville: 1 INT (#19 in yards, #16 in INTs)

New Orleans: 2 INTs (#21 in yards, #9 in INTs)

Green Bay (Game 2): 2 INTs (#12 in yards, #5 in INTs)

Three out of the six were against teams who are in the Top 10 in the league in causing interceptions. The other three (Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Jacksonville) are all considered some of the top defenses in the league. There is also something else to take away from this: Out of the 14 games played, Kyle Orton has only thrown interceptions in six of them.

There is also something else very important to look at. Kyle Orton hurt his ankle badly against Detroit in Week 9. Initial reports had him out 4 to 6 weeks. Because Orton is a pretty tough guy and was able to play through the pain, he was back out on the field after one week. But anyone that has ever sprained an ankle will tell you that while its easy to play through an ankle injury, its very hard to play at the same level you once did and that ankle will never become fully healed until after the season. The quarterback position relies a lot on foot position, balance, and movement in the pocket. Being able to plant properly will also strongly affect the accuracy and strength of your throws.

Four out of the six games Kyle Orton has thrown interceptions in are post ankle injury.

Give the guy a chance. We finally have a good quarterback that helps us win games and can make all the throws when healthy. We as Chicago Bear fans have got to loosen up a little bit. We are all so scarred from so many bad quarterbacks that we just can't trust anyone at all. Some of the same people who were saying we should resign him long term are now saying we should get rid of him? Come on.

I was so fired up after the Bears won. I came on this website hoping to see the same excitement and all I saw a list of players that we need to sign next year instead and negative views all around. Orton made some good throws and made plays when he needed too. He threw two picks on a freezing cold day when his receivers could barely get off the line to one of the top passing defenses in the league. It happens.

Young quarterbacks who are in their 30th start are going to have bad games. Quarterbacks in their 70th start are going to have bad games. Peyton Manning is going to have bad stretches of games. Drew Brees is going to have bad stretches of games. Brees almost led the league an interceptions last year and now he is about to break Dan Marino's record for yards. Imagine being a Green Bay fan all those years with Brett Farve regularly tossing balls to the opposing team game after game. Brett Farve always could win though. And Kyle Orton's record as a starter is 20-11.

Lets have some fun with this guys. We have a chance to go to the playoffs! Have a good time with it. Shove it in your non-Bears fan friend's (which are almost all of mine) faces that our team is 9-6 and is a team NO ONE would want to face in the playoffs. We almost beat the Carolina Panthers, remember? And the Buccaneers! And the Falcons! And does anyone think we wouldn't destroy the Cardinals? What about matching up against the Giants without Plaxico with the way our run defense plays? The Cowboys would be a tough matchup for us but it definitely wouldn't be a forgone conclusion. Every NFC team has their flaws and issues. Quarterback is not one of them for us.

Great article on Matt Forte

californiabearfan — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 21:22:54 -0000

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nflnation/0-4-67/Forte-s-chances-for-rookie-of-year.html

Jerry Angelo gets a lot of grief on this website but I haven't heard a whole lot of credit being given to him for finding an absolute gem in the second round. There were many people who thought Rashard Mendenhall was the answer but it is quickly becoming apparent that Matt Forte is the top guy in this class of running backs (you can also make a case for Chris Johnson but its a very close). This guy is the absolute MVP to this football team and deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround on offense and the growth of Kyle Orton. Matt Forte has also just started to scratch the surface of his ability and just based on what we already know about his work ethic and desire to be the best, I don't see how he doesn't continue to improve.

Devin Hester Return Game

californiabearfan — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 19:28:11 -0000

I have noticed, along with many other people, that Devin Hester is not putting as much effort into returning kicks and punts as he used too. I am going to take a guess as to why. I think a lot of it is contract related. And with that, fatigue related. Lets take a look at the contract he signed:

Signed a four-year, $40.975 million contract extension through 2013. The deal contains $15 million guaranteed, including a $5 million signing bonus and $18.939 million in performance-based escalators. He can get $250,000 workout bonuses in each year. 2008: $445,000, 2009: $530,000 (+ $5 million roster bonus), 2010: $750,000, (+ $5 million roster bonus), 2011: $1.583 million, 2012: $1.646 million, 2013: $1.857 million (+ $10 million "de-escalating" roster bonus), 2014: Free Agent

The deal features escalators of $10 million in each of the final two years, which Hester can reach through receptions, yardage and other targets.

He is catching 5-7 balls a game now and getting hit every time, sometimes directly over the middle. He has to catch the ball during a punt return when he has gunners coming at him at full speed. He has to return kick returns with gunners coming at him at full speed.

All three of these activities leaves him open to injury. And the one that pays the most by far for Hester is catching the ball and making receptions. Now if you are Hester, are you going to put more of an effort in as a receiver or as a returner when you can get an extra $10M if you are able to hit your receiver targets? Getting hurt during a punt or kick return for him is leaving millions of dollars on the table. We have seen him consistently step out of bounds instead of trying to make the play and I think this is exactly why. I am sure he has escalators for kick and punt return TDs, but those are much harder to come by and are much rougher on his body.

While the selfish side of me wants him back there and making the same returns that got him the contract in the first place, I also understand where he is coming from. We pretty much got what we asked for. We wanted him as a receiver and we have him as a receiver. But with that is going to come sacrifices. Right now he really doesn't have much incentive to put forth the same effort on kick and punt returns, especially when we are asking him to become a major part of the offense. He is on the field for 30-35 plays a game and running routs at full speed and blocking each play. You don't see too many teams putting their #2 receiver on both punt and kick returns.

So, my suggestion is this. We find someone that has more of an incentive to put forth the effort. We keep him for the majority of punt returns but take him off kick returns. We have a more then capable returner in Danieal Manning for kick returns who has consistently showed he can hit the holes hard and give us good field position. Danieal Manning also has a strong incentive to go at this as hard as he possibly can because he knows he needs to start making more of an impact fast and he doesn't have the contract Devin Hester has yet. And for punt returns, I think we start developing Earl Bennett, who returned one during the preseason, for the job slowly by giving him a couple of chances a game. Or we try Corey Graham, who was a dominant returner in college. This gives Devin Hester a rest and, if Devin becomes the #1 receiver, we have someone to go too.

I really don't think Hester's return drop off has anything to do with a sudden lack of ability. He is making a business decision, whether it be subconcious or concious, to play cautious and not get hurt during these returns. He is also conserving his energy for the routes he is being asked to run.

What do you guys think?

Rex Grossman Breakdown

californiabearfan — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 19:35:11 -0000

I have been reading this website for about a year now and this is my first attempt at a post. Let me first say that I am actually a Rex Grossman supporter. I do not think he is fully developed yet and to say he is a failure at this point isn't fair. This is a breakdown I have created of all of Rex Grossman's games starting since 2006.

Rk	Week		Date			Tm		Opp	Tm	Opp	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Cmp%	Rate	Att	Yds	Y/A	Rec	Yds	Y/R
9	1	Sun	Sep 10, 2006	box	W	CHI	@	GNB	26	0	18	26	262	1	1	10.1	69.2	98.6	1	2	2.0	1	-4	-4.0
10	2	Sun	Sep 17, 2006	box	W	CHI		DET	34	7	20	27	289	4	0	10.7	74.1	148.0	1	0	0.0
11	3	Sun	Sep 24, 2006	box	W	CHI	@	MIN	19	16	23	41	278	1	2	6.8	56.1	64.9	3	-3	-1.0
12	4	Sun	Oct 1, 2006	box	W	CHI		SEA	37	6	17	31	232	2	0	7.5	54.8	100.5	1	2	2.0
13	5	Sun	Oct 8, 2006	box	W	CHI		BUF	40	7	15	27	182	2	0	6.7	55.6	101.2
14	6	Mon	Oct 16, 2006	box	W	CHI	@	ARI	24	23	14	37	144	0	4	3.9	37.8	10.2	3	-7	-2.3
15	8	Sun	Oct 29, 2006	box	W	CHI		SFO	41	10	23	29	252	3	0	8.7	79.3	137.4
16	9	Sun	Nov 5, 2006	box	L	CHI		MIA	13	31	18	42	210	1	3	5.0	42.9	36.8
17	10	Sun	Nov 12, 2006	box	W	CHI	@	NYG	38	20	18	30	246	3	1	8.2	60.0	105.7	3	-2	-0.7
18	11	Sun	Nov 19, 2006	box	W	CHI	@	NYJ	10	0	11	22	119	1	0	5.4	50.0	81.4	1	-1	-1.0
19	12	Sun	Nov 26, 2006	box	L	CHI	@	NWE	13	17	15	34	176	0	3	5.2	44.1	23.7	2	1	0.5
20	13	Sun	Dec 3, 2006	box	W	CHI		MIN	23	13	6	19	34	0	3	1.8	31.6	1.3	4	-9	-2.3
21	14	Mon	Dec 11, 2006	box	W	CHI	@	STL	42	27	13	23	200	2	0	8.7	56.5	114.4	3	20	6.7
22	15	Sun	Dec 17, 2006	box	W	CHI		TAM	34	31	29	44	339	2	0	7.7	65.9	104.3
23	16	Sun	Dec 24, 2006	box	W	CHI	@	DET	26	21	20	36	197	1	0	5.5	55.6	80.4
24	17	Sun	Dec 31, 2006	box	L	CHI		GNB	7	26	2	12	33	0	3	2.8	16.7	0.0	2	-1	-0.5

Rex Grossman stats in 2006. He only started five games before this season, two in 2005 before he was injured and put on IR and three in 2004 before he was injured. As you can see above, all the bolded games are ones he played very well in, and the underlined ones he played especially well. The ratio of good games to bad games is 10 to 6. The Green Bay game in the last week of the season was completely meaningless and Grossman admitted to not preparing at all for the game as he thought he was not going to play more then the first series and instead they left him in until half time. If you don't count that game, he had three really bad games that counted during 2006. Two of them being very high profile so everyone saw them (the Patriots and Monday night against the Cardinals) and one of them against the Miami Dolphins. The Vikings game where he had a 0 rating was a game that had terrible weather that made it very difficult to throw the ball. The Vikings quarterback in that game also had a terrible time throwing the football.

									Score		Passing								Rushing			Receiving
Rk	Week		Date			Tm		Opp	Tm	Opp	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Cmp%	Rate	Att	Yds	Y/A	Rec	Yds	Y/R	RRTD
			Playoffs
1	Division	Sun	Jan 15, 2006	box	L	CHI		CAR	21	29	17	41	192	1	1	4.7	41.5	54.1	1
2	Division	Sun	Jan 14, 2007	box	W	CHI		SEA	27	24	21	38	282	1	1	7.4	55.3	76.9							0
3	ConfChamp	Sun	Jan 21, 2007	box	W	CHI		NOR	39	14	11	26	144	1	0	5.5	42.3	73.2	2	-3	-1.5				0
4	SuperBowl	Sun	Feb 4, 2007	box	L	CHI	N	IND	17	29	20	28	165	1	2	5.9	71.4	68.3	2	0	0.0				0

Rex Grossman stats in 2006 playoffs, including the one game he started against Carolina in 2005 and the Super Bowl. The interception recorded against Seattle bounced off Mushin Muhammads hands in the end zone and fell into a cornerbacks lap. Even in the Super Bowl, he completed 20-28 passes but comitted two costly turnovers. Inconsistent? Yes. Bad? No. His ratio of good games to bad games was 2 to 2

Rk	Week		Date			Tm		Opp	Tm	Opp	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	Cmp%	Rate	Att	Yds	Y/A
25	1	Sun	Sep 9, 2007	box	L	CHI	@	SDG	3	14	12	23	145	0	1	6.3	52.2	53.7
26	2	Sun	Sep 16, 2007	box	W	CHI		KAN	20	10	20	34	160	1	2	4.7	58.8	56.0	3	-3	-1.0
27	3	Sun	Sep 23, 2007	box	L	CHI		DAL	10	34	15	32	195	0	3	6.1	46.9	27.5	1	12	12.0
28	10	Sun	Nov 11, 2007	box	W	CHI	@	OAK	17	6	7	14	142	1	0	10.1	50.0	109.8	1	0	0.0
29	11	Sun	Nov 18, 2007	box	L	CHI	@	SEA	23	30	24	37	266	0	0	7.2	64.9	86.1	4	13	3.3
30	12	Sun	Nov 25, 2007	box	W	CHI		DEN	37	34	17	33	193	1	1	5.8	51.5	66.9	4	1	0.3
31	13	Sun	Dec 2, 2007	box	L	CHI		NYG	16	21	25	46	296	1	0	6.4	54.3	81.4

Rex Grossman's stats in 2007. He started off bad in his first three games and was benched, but when he was brought back in he did very well. Against the Giants he threw for almost 300 yards and one touchdown, and Devin Hester dropped a 70 yard throw that would have brought Grossmans stats to well over 300 yards throwing and two touchdowns for the game, as well as most likely bringing a victory to the Bears. These Giants were the same team that beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl by shutting down Tom Brady. His ratio of good games to bad games was 4 to 3 in 2007. I did not include the game against the Redskins when he was injured in the first half. All in all, he has had 16 good games and 11 bad games since the beginning of 2006. These stats do not include fumbles, which have been a huge problem of his and a major flaw. He has had 18 fumbles in his career which is very bad. Holding on to the football and pocket presense are both things though that can be learned from experience. There was a time when Tiki Barber was last in the league in fumbles. He worked on it and became one of the best. Does Rex Grossman have that kind of drive? I am not sure at this point. But does he deserve a chance to work on it? I think so. Does this make him a good quarterback? No. Does this make him a bad quarterback? No. Does it make him inconsistent? Yes. But hasn't there been enough good in here to give him a fair shot? In my opinion, yes. I know that most of the view on Rex Grossman is negative and he deserves some of it. But I think that he has shown enough good that if we were to stick with him he could really develop to become something great. If you look at the statistics of some of the better quarterbacks in the league today they look very similar to Rex Grossman's first 32 starts in this league, which is actually not too far off how many starts Vince Young has had.