SB Nation User Blog: cap'n hack

Flynn wants Rubio in a Wolves Jersey

cap'n hack — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 02:45:56 -0000

Flynn wants Rubio in a Wolves Jersey

Maybe it's just the easy thing to say now that Ricky isn't coming, but if it's true, you've got to like that Flynn would prefer to have the competition to make him better and a guy who can help the team win over a few extra minutes of PT. Good to hear from him.

Stats as CliffsNotes

cap'n hack — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 22:40:55 -0000

(An OT discussion of statistical analysis to follow, tune out now if you are uninterested)

It is an oft repeated catchphrase here on GSoM, and likely on many other blogs, "Stats don't tell the whole story." This is a true statement, and one that I don't see a good reason to refute, but it's not true in the way people seem to think that it is. A statistical breakdown of a season, a game, or a quarter will give you a very close to complete picture of what went well, who played poorly and how teams won or lost. What they don't give us is a reason to care about that. In this way, basketball-reference.com, Wages of Wins and other analytic sources are the CliffsNotes of the NBA.

Let me come out and say this first, I hate CliffsNotes. If I ever heard someone say "We were supposed to read The Red and The Black for class today, but I just read the CliffsNotes. I think I get it now," I'd immediately think less of that person. They don't get it, because Stendhal's prose does more than tell you what happened to Julien Sorel, it tells you why you should care about not just what happened, but how that relates to life itself. This is why no one who just reads CliffsNotes really gets why literature matters, and why people who read novels often do. It is also why no one just reads the Wages of Wins blog and doesn't watch basketball games. The games themselves are why we care about basketball.

The games themselves are poetic struggles between athletes at the peaks of their abilities. Every Monta Ellis fast break, Stephen Jackson scream, Anthony Morrow 3 and pretty much anything Anthony Randolph does give us an aesthetic appreciation for what we are watching. It's a beautiful, intricate game and anyone who's seen LeBron James float down the court and elevate for dunk or find a teammate that the cameraman couldn't can attest to that. It pisses me off that a website can tell me who played well and who didn't without giving me anything else from that experience. The problem is, they pretty much can.

Sure, there are bits that statistical analysis doesn't pick up on. It can't make value judgements for us. We do require actual scouting to see what the stat sheet misses, but the truth is, it's really not that much. As long as you look past PPG and get into the more advanced analysis, you'll find almost everything that happened on the court represented by a number. It's disgusting, but it's just about dead on.

Just as I know that any summary worth its salt will provide a reader with all the relevant events of The Unbearable Lightness of Being and provide some basic discussion of why it matters, I know that basketball-reference.com will let you know almost all the relevant details of a player's NBA career. The main difference between the two is that I don't need to go to SparkNotes or some other website to figure out the value of a good piece of literature, but too much happens too quickly for me fully grasp the moasic of constantly moving parts that is an NBA basketball game. I need the help of stats to really grasp it. This is why we need to take stats seriously, but it's in watching the story unfold on the court that we can see why basketball matters to us. This isn't a school assignment- it's poetry that all of us here at GSoM seem to truly appreciate and in a few months, we'll be able to stick our noses back in the beautiful novel that is the National Basketball Association.

GMs rank the point guard crop (Via ESPN)

cap'n hack — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:32:34 -0000

GMs rank the point guard crop (Via ESPN)

Interesting stuff. Jennings dropping so low on that list is a surprise while Flynn and Curry are looking really good to the GMs and execs interviewed. We'll see what happens in the 5 on 5 drills.

GSoM Group Project: Brandon Jennings Ramblings

cap'n hack — Fri, 29 May 2009 01:36:32 -0000

Let’s get this out of the way. Brandon Jennings appears to have very good playmaking skills, is very quick, and an excellent athlete. He also appears to be an inefficient scorer, who can’t hit a three to save his life, with rebounding and defense issues (though there have been conflicting reports on his defense). We know this; we’ve heard it before, many times. Mcwalter44 made any sort of real scouting report here almost completely unnecessary. If you are interested in a more standard scouting report on Jennings, previous fanposts should be able to help you out. From here on out, we are leaving any semblance of a traditional scouting report behind and moving into a “cap’n hack feels ways about stuff, particularly Brandon Jennings” extravaganza. You’ve been warned.

Let me start with you, Chad Ford. I’m not pleased with you. In the Lottery Mock Drafts you could find on espn.com, you told me that Brandon Jennings was a point guard “in the Gilbert Arenas mold”. He was listed as the Warriors’ pick if we had the 7 and I certainly didn’t mind the idea of bringing back Gil, but with working legs and a smaller paycheck (but probably not the wackiness and blogging skills). Then I looked at some numbers, and it turns out, Jennings doesn’t make threes. Ever. His percentage from deep is an atrocious 20.7% in the Italian League and a slightly less miserable 26.8% in the Euroleague (with a smaller sample size). While he did shoot 45.7% and 47.9% from inside the arc in the two leagues, respectively, and that’s not particularly impressive. Check the video (also from mcwalter44’s fanpost), his jumper is UGLY; someone needs to work on his mechanics starting yesterday. In spite of its ugliness, it’s less terrifying than this: I want you to imagine Gilbert Arenas with no range at all. You’re concerned, aren’t you? Well, so was I. Gil is not exactly a pure point guard, and doesn’t make his money by getting other guys involved. So when I hear about someone “in the Gilbert Arenas” mold, but can’t hit a three, I get upset. I do not want to draft that person. Thankfully, that comparison was a typical piece of espn draft nonsense.

The guy can pass, better than Gil ever could. Don’t worry about that; he’ll find the open man when he gets to the NBA. He finds the open man to the tune of about 5 assists per 36 in Euroleauge, which might not sound impressive, but they are stingy about handing out dimes on the stat sheet in Europe. Not to mention that most of the offenses do not lend themselves to racking up assists as a point guard, but even there, he makes passes with style. We’ve seen the videos of Jennings’ ridiculous passes and he’ll probably try a couple of those unnecessarily flashy passes until Nellie or whoever is coaching him sits him down for throwing the ball out of bounds on a sweet looking behind the back. That possible scenario aside, if he keeps the Bassy Telfair in him from ruining his career, he’s going to be able to make the right play more often the not. His playmaking instincts are undeniable. If he does absolutely nothing but run up and down the court and pass the ball the way he’s capable of, he’s got a role on this team. And if no one guards him because of that abysmal range, he’s quick enough to get to the cup with no real problems. That is encouraging.

Less encouraging is all the talk that he’ll never be able to play alongside Monta. Maybe that’s true, but in all honesty, it’s not particularly important. He’s not ready to play alongside anyone right now. He’s a couple years away from being an impact player. In all likelihood, even though he’s not going to walk into the first game of the season as our starting point guard and remind us of Chris Paul, he’s probably going to be an improvement over CJ. Here’s the list of things that I’m fairly certain that CJ will be better than Brandon Jennings at if we bring Jennings over: shooting. That’s the list. So, if we think he’s likely to work on his jumper and play respectable defense to the point where he could start in the NBA in a couple years, then he’s worth considering at the 7. Let say that the 2011 season is about to start and our best guards are Monta, Jennings, and someone we pick up in the draft or via free agency (I’d say Jack, but by 2011, I don’t expect him to be the same player). If Jennings looks to be a top notch pure point guard, then we can trade Monta if they can’t play together. If Jennings looks like an average NBA starter, then we trade him for whatever pressing need we may have. If we add a 2 guard with game, maybe we bring Monta off the bench and let him be our instant offense 6th man. None of these things are disasters. What we need to worry about is whether or not Brandon Jennings can play basketball, not whether or not he fits next to Monta.

That said, I’m very worried about whether or not Jennings can play basketball. A flashy dominant high school point guard with no range sounds a lot like Sebastian Telfair. I invoked that train wreck earlier for a reason. I can’t shake that possibility. I’m not sure how likely it is, but that mental image won’t go away for me. I’d even guess that Jennings will come in and be better than Telfair immediately, so the comparison is probably unfair, but there it is, the unfair comparison that won’t go away. God forbid he comes here and thinks “Well, the Warriors don’t care about defense or rebounding, and they love iso plays; I’m going to show off my skills in the bay!” But he’s improved in Europe; he seems more mature, more collected, more self aware and more able to realize what it takes to be a good basketball player (the interviews quoted and linked to by McWalter44 seem to show this). Maybe he’ll put it all together, and he’s gotta be better than CJ, right? Agh, I want some video! I want to see full games! I want to know what to think of this kid! Right now, I feel ways about him, but I have no idea which ways those are. Sitting at “he might be the BPA” when we draft and Jennings is available is not a good place for me to be. For now, I’m stuck with a thousand different conflicting opinions, concerns and hopes. I hate the pick now as much as ever, but not because I think Brandon Jennings is going to be a surefire bust, but because I have no idea what to think of him. That sort of nausea is not what I want out of my draft pick. At least I know what I’m getting with Stephen Curry.

Links to previous fanposts: http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2009/5/20/881215/jennings-7-yes-according-to-chad

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2009/5/14/875295/draftexpress-com-features-brandon

On Fandom

cap'n hack — Wed, 13 May 2009 16:40:21 -0000

What does it really mean to be a fan? Is it throwing yourself in wholeheartedly to a team you care about? Is it about dedicating yourself to that particular team's wins and losses and letting that be a large part of your life? I'm not really sure that either of those are the case. I am absolutely devoted to the Warriors, moreso than any team I've ever followed, but I don't think that whether or not they win games is central to either my existence, or my fanhood. It sounds sort of weird, but hear me out.

Think of it this way. Let's say that a kid is growing up in Buffalo, NY. This kid is surrounded by Bills fans, including his parents. His uncle, however, is from MA and is a big Pats fan. His uncle takes him to a couple of Patriots' games, but in the end, he still becomes a Bills fan. He now must suffer the tortures of losing year in and year out and the pain of heartbreaking losses. But the thing is, I don't think he'd really be better off if he were a Patriots fan. He'd certainly get to celebrate more victories, but that's not what being a fan is all about and wouldn't really make his life any better.

The same goes for our beloved Warriors. The franchise isn't exactly a winner and we all really want that to change, myself included. That's an important part of being a fan, wanting your team to be successful. On the other hand, the things that I care about as far as being a Warriors fan is concerned, don't really relate to the results. I want to have hope that they'll win, I want to believe in the team and root for them, both of which are easier if the team is good, but mostly, I want an emotional outlet. I want to get too involved while watching the games (and posting on GSoM). I want to scream at my TV, jump for joy, and despise other teams. Winning makes it easier to care about a team, but it isn't why we care about our teams.

I guess that's probably why I don't get involved with all the attacks on "bandwagon" fans. They have their outlet elsewhere, and their threshold for having that hope and dedication to the Warriors is a bit higher. I don't mind that they don't care as much about Warriors basketball as we do. Probably because, to an extent, we're all bandwagon fans.

Think about it. Would you still be a Warriors fan if they went 0-82 for the next seven seasons? Or would you have become a fan if that were the case? Honestly, I hope not. You can't care about or believe in a team that has no hope to win. Or at least, it'd be really hard to do, and might require you to know the players on a personal basis. We grew attached to the Warriors through the moments where they provided us with that belief, that joy, and we reaffirmed it in the tough times (and we all know there have been plenty). Of course, without any chance of winning, it gets really tough.

That brings us to today. I'm not happy that the Warriors sucked this past season, but at least we can see room for improvement next year. I think that management made a lot of dumb decisions, trading for Crawford, extending Jack, and to a lesser extent, the Maggette signing, but really, how much do those decisions matter in terms of bringing us a championship contender? My guess is not that much. We won't be a championship contender without a superstar and here's my list of superstars: LeBron (who's on a level all his own), D-Wade, Howard, CP3, Kobe. Guys like KG and Duncan just vacated that level and guys like Melo and Rose are making an effort to join it (*Addition*: I foolishly left Roy off that list. Apologies to Blazers fans as he seems to be the next guy who will cross the superstar threshold). The point remains the same, there aren't many of those guys around and we aren't signing any of them in free agency. The extra year they can get from their current teams makes it tough for us to get anywhere in contract negotiations. We aren't New York, LA, or Chicago, so they won't get the endorsement perks for coming here either. That leaves us with two goals as a franchise. Draft a superstar and put an entertaining product on the floor.

Injuries this past year made it hard to call the product consistently "entertaining" but that should change this coming year. There were plenty of bright spots to keep us watching, and it's safe to say that we can expect those bright spots to put on a good show next year. I can't wait for the next Randolph dunk, Monta break, or Turiaf block. Those things give us enough hope to keep us interested, but don't expect a title unless Monta, Biedrins, and Randolph all play at an all-star level and we go get another great player. 29/30 teams won't win a championship next year, but that doesn't keep me from watching, hoping that the Warriors will win every game, even if they won't win a title. If the Warriors never win a title in my lifetime, my fan experience won't be a failure and I won't regret it and I definitely wouldn't want us to be the Lakers, overspending and always in contention. Those rough patches let me know that I really am attached to this team. As long as they give me a reason to stand up and cheer or be furious about boneheaded plays and bad losses, it'll be a success. They're my outlet and the rollercoaster they keep me on does a great job of keeping me involved, win or lose.

But still,

*Let's Go Warriors!*

Another Possible Take on Making a Winner out of This Team

cap'n hack — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 19:17:19 -0000

We hear a lot about the "logjam" at the 1-3 on the Warriors, but the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that this is the area of the team that needs the most work. The Biedrins/Turiaf and Randolph/Wright situation for our bigs seems to be one that can be very respectable for the coming years. Randolph and Wright still have some work to do (please stay out of foul trouble Randolph! Please!), but the makings are there now for a very good front court. The main issue we seem to have is at our guards and swingmen, something that probably requires a bit of explanation.

Monta Ellis is the only guard we have with a realistic, good shot at an all-star game at some point in his career. It's that simple. I like Morrow, but he doesn't scream future all-star to me; he seems more like a very good complementary piece. Buike is another solid role player. Marco, too. Jack and Maggette have seen their best days at this point. They are not going to radically improve to be the 1st or 2nd option on a winning team. CJ is a backup point guard, nothing more. Jamal Crawford, despite his great game last night, is not a good basketball player. Myself and quite a few other people on these boards have explained why on enough separate occasions that going into detail here seems unnecessary (volume shooter, doesn't rebound/defend, etc.) That's a lot of players, with one very good player. Calling it a "logjam" seems to imply that there are a lot of players who deserve a lot of minutes. If anything, we need ANOTHER swingman/point guard (I'm fine with either, Monta can play the point or slide to the 2, I don't care which he does) who can really play if we are going to make a legitimate playoff push.

How do we start to solve this problem? Step one, in my opinion, is to tell Crawford to opt out or expect the Starbury treatment for the next two years. Tell him straight up "We have enough guards, if you want to play basketball, I'd opt out. You won't be getting playing time here." If it is made clear that he won't be playing, he might realize how hard it will be to get another team to take him on after two years of warming the bench in Oakland. Harsh? Yes. This is nothing against Jamal as a person, just against Jamal as a player. Outside of the occasional game where he catches fire, he is a sizable detriment to the team. We don't need him.

Step Two: The Draft. Depending on position, we should not expect a world beater, but might fall into someone that would work very well for us or that some other team covets. I'd look into trading down or out of the first round if nothing exciting is available or if there's a solid player there, go for it (not rocket science, I know). If we move down, try to shed Jackson or Mags' contract in the process. That probably will require moving one of the solid young guys too, but this is the price we will need to pay. Marco, Mags and our pick for a later draft pick might seem little steep, but we need to make a play for an all-star caliber guard in the next couple years to make a serious contender out of this team. If we luck into a top 2 pick, well, that changes a lot. I've been thinking more and more that Rubio is our franchise's greatest hope if we get one of those picks, but let's not pretend it's likely.

Step Three: Free Agency/Trades. This one is on whoever becomes the next GM. It's a bit early to start seriously considering who will be on the market in either free agency or via trades in the next couple years. Most players listed as "Free Agents" aren't going anywhere. I'd love to see us make a move for Joe Johnson in 2010, but who knows if he'll have an extension by then. It's really going to be a matter of waiting for a possibility and pouncing agressively. All our nice young talent could be possible trade fodder for a borderline all-star type player. If our front court develops nicely, the Warriors would really only need the type of player who gets in the discussion of top tier players, not a surefire all-star guy.

Monta, Biedrins and Randolph could be the core that can win a lot of games. But they will need one more very good player if the team wants to be talked about as a title contender in the next 5 years or so. Standing pat leaves us with a first round playoff series on the road for the foreseeable future. There's a hole to be filled at our guard positions; we need to find that missing piece.

Outsider with a question...

cap'n hack — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 06:23:40 -0000

Okay, so I'm a Warriors fan, and normally I do my posting on GSoM, but I think that Phoenix has potentially the most interesting team as far as range of possibilities go, for next season, so here I am. Where do you folks see the Suns next year?

It seems to me that it has become a necessity to have a complete style of play overhaul and I'm sure I'm not alone in that opinion. I wish that it wasn't true. In the past few years I have loved watching the Suns play, I have. For a team outside of the bay, I could not have respected and enjoyed that team more. I sort of viewed the Suns as a member of the "basketball as its meant to be played family" along with my beloved Warriors and to an extent, the Washington Wizards. Unfortunately, the personell just is not there for the style of play that I so enjoy. That said, Steve Nash's back might be thanking everything that is holy that the games will slow down some.

Now, if Amare keeps making progress and becomes an almost-Dwight Howard, which is all any big without a cape can hope for, I can see this team contending again. If healthy. That's a big if. There are a lot of injury risks on the team, which is one reason why D'Antoni might not be there anymore. His style of play wasn't a problem for the health of his players in the past, but do you really want Grant Hill, Shaq and Nash playing more possessions than they need to?

So, I guess I'll leave it with the main questions on my mind.

-Where in the West do the Suns finish this year?

-Do they have the defenders to play a slower pace?

-Can Shaq and Hill hold up for an entire season?

-(Bonus) Who hates Robert Horry more, Suns fans or Kings fans?

The West is about to get much weaker, let's take advantage.

cap'n hack — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 03:26:35 -0000

Think about it, of the eight teams that finished above us at least four of them will probably be worse next year. Denver has to have the highest likelihood of any one team having a one team Artest-brawl at their practice facility of any team in NBA history (or if no one goes to those, any random home game). Have you seen a Nuggets game? They don't speak to each other under any circumstances, it's creepy. The odds of them staying cohesive enough to compete are slim.

The Mavs are trotting out Jason Kidd's lifeless body (as much as it hurts me to say that about the guy) at the point every night, Erick Dampier at center and Dirk who hasn't had any heart since the Dubs ripped it from his chest in '07. No playoffs are a possibility for them too.

The Suns are counting on Steve Nash's back, Grant Hill's general health and Shaq not collapsing on the court after every time he jumps. Doesn't sound like a team that is winning as many games as they did last year to me.

The Rockets need Yao to stay healthy and T-Mac to pull it together and have plenty of question marks themselves.

Almost every supporting guy on the Spurs is the winning combination of old, unathletic and a potential free agent. I think they'll reload properly, but maybe not fast enough for next year.

The Hornets and Jazz should be about as good as they were this year, accounting for CP3 and Deron getting a little better, but having some aging pieces around them.

The Lakers are the only really terrifying team for next year, if Bynum is healthy. That team could win 70 next year, thanks to the grand theft Gasol trade and Farmar improving a little.

Right now, that leaves us as a 6-8 seed in my estimation, accounting for Portland probably getting into the mix as well. If we add another all-star caliber or at least close to it talent, we shoot up to the 4-6 if everything plays out right. That's why I am so concerned when Nellie says that he wants to spend a lot of time developing young guys at the expense of a few wins. I don't think he will, when has he ever, but that is a sign that management isn't going to make much of a splash in the off-season. Let's make a trade that makes us more than just a scary first round matchup. A lot of good names are being floated right now and I want to see something done. I've been hearing Marion is available along with Sheed and all those restricted free agents who could be brought in with the right sign and trade. There is no reason for us not to go all in this year instead of developing young guys to be good when the traditional powerhouse teams get ready to win again.

Please Mullin, get someone this year, we need it.