SBNation.com User Blog: capsfansteve

White House petition

capsfansteve — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 21:27:15 -0000

White House petition

Presidents have intervened in labor disputes many times before. Worth a shot, right?

Boudreau: Should he stay or should he go?

capsfansteve — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 07:58:52 -0000

Mike Green games into the season, our beloved Caps stand at 27-25. Yeah, yeah, I know we got the charity point in 10 of those games (league leaders in SOMETHING, at least), but that is what the record boils down to. Consistent effort from the club has been well...consistently absent. Tonight's game against the Habs is a perfect example, even if it followed a slightly different script than most nights over the last 2+ months. As I've seen it (and maybe I'm wrong), since 12/1, Caps hockey boils down to this: 1 really good period, 1 really bad period and 1 meh period. The order has been somewhat interchangeable, but given the team's well documented first period struggles, it generally goes bad, average, good. Tonight went good, abysmal, average, but I digress. If the bad and the meh period are REALLY bad, the team loses despite any furious comeback attempts (see: Colorado 12/11, Boston 12/18, Vancouver 1/14). In those cases one could yammer endlessly about the "hot goalie". Yes, Anderson, Thomas and Bobby Lou played very well in those games, but the fact is that in each game, the Caps dug themselves a big hole and despite dominating the play late in all 3 instances, they were unable to pot the necessary tying goal (much less the winning one). Hot goalie or not, these games are the outliers in the bunch; most nights there isn't a heroic charge at all. The Capitals have been blanked 6 times since the Dec. 1 victory over St. Louis and 3 other times the team has been held to 1 goal. Too often of late, the "good period" is simply one where no mistakes are made and the team escapes to the intermission without surrendering a tally.

I'm a realist: the "60 minute game" is an illusion in hockey. The guys on the other side of the ice are professionals and it is next to impossible to shut down or even control a healthy majority of the possession time against professionals for 60+ minutes a game 82 times a year in the regular season plus however many games in the playoffs. However, what the Caps have been accomplishing of late is a far cry from that fictitious ideal. The simple fact is: this team is capable of playing better than it does a lot of the time. I know it, you know it, BB knows it and they all know it too. One of the questions I've asked myself time and time again after seeing the same lackadaisical play over and over again is whether BB is incapable of making adjustments or if the boys in red are just too lazy to care for roughly 30 minutes a game when Pittsburgh isn't the opponent. Either way it would seem to be a poor reflection on his coaching abilities: either he's incompetent (which given his success at other levels, I doubt) or he can't get his charges to listen to him. I know it probably sounds like I'm one of the armchair GMs that McPhee so eloquently slammed by saying "if they knew anything about hockey they'd be in the game". I'm taking the defense of Socrates: the only thing I know is that I don't know anything. I don't know what's going on at Kettler, Verizon or any of the stops along the road behind the scenes. Trying to parse 24/7 for some window into the locker room is Sisyphean at best, however I do know that lack of effort seems to have been a consistent problem since early on in the 2008/2009 season. It wasn't quite as glaring that season or the subsequent one because pucks were hitting twine at an eye-popping rate: any bad periods were easily being overcome by the good ones. That just isn't the case anymore and the things some of us have been seeing for years are now becoming blatantly evident not only to the members of the Red Army who turned a blind eye to laziness, but to the rest of the hockey world.

I've been contemplating the job status of BB and whether or not he should get the axe. As we all know, hockey is unique amongst professional sports in North America in that a coaching change can jump start a team's fortunes rapidly as opposed to other sports where such measures are done as acts of desperation and seldom benefit the team. NFL and MLB coaches who acquire their jobs mid/late season never amount to anything during their initial season: one NFL coach has made the playoffs after not beginning the year in the head coaching position (and the '78 NE Patriots were 11-4 when the switch was made...not exactly a common situation).

Clearly, things are different in the NHL. The oft mentioned 08/09 Pens, 09/10 Flyers spring to mind as the hackneyed cliche...but it goes far deeper than that. The whole point of this post is to a) combat my insomnia and b) crunch a lot of numbers to see whether or not the move really makes sense. I've had plenty of knee jerk reactions this season where I reflexively scream for BB's haagen dazs swollen head, but I wanted to see if the numbers really justify a change. Of course, even if they do, it begs the question....who? As I'm no GM, I haven't the foggiest. I do NOT think a guy like Ken Hitchcock is the answer. If the team doesn't feel like playing hard on a consistent basis for a player's coach, a taskmaster probably wouldn't get better results. The point of this diatribe is to look at the numbers and see if a change would be warranted, numerically. Here are all the mid-season coaching changes since the lockout minus a couple of extreme outliers (Quenneville taking over after 4 games doesn't really strike me as a midseason replacement. Ditto Hitchcock getting canned from the Flyers in 05/06. Same goes for Waddell taking over Atlanta 6 games into the 07/08 season) And Here...We...Go...

2005/2006

1. John Torchetti .417 (5-7) vs Andy Murray .564 (37-28-5) Playoffs=No. Outlier Status=yes. This was a bit of an odd situation, but I kept it in my analysis anyway. Net Change= -.147

2. Bob Gainey .598 (23-15-3) vs. Claude Julien .537 (19-16-6). Playoffs=yes (QF loss) Net change= .061

3. Michel Therrien .353 vs Eddie O .355. Not really relevant because Pittsburgh was still in tank mode for draft picks at this point. Net change= -.002

4. Brad Shaw .500 (18-18-4) vs Steve Stirling .452 (18-22-2) No playoffs. Net Change=.048

5. Lou Lamiorello .680 (32-14-4) vs Larry Robinson .516 (14-13-5) Playoffs: Yes (ECSF Loss) Net Change .164

Summary: 5 Teams changed coaches, 3 missed the playoffs. Average Change in the Raw Numbers was .0248 but if you factor out the Kings' situation, the change more than doubles to .0542.

2006/2007

1. Ken Hitchcock .492 (28-29-5) vs Gerard Gallant .300 (5-13-2) No playoffs, but CBJ had a significantly better winning % under Hitchcock. Net Change=.192

2. Denis Savard .451 (24-30-7) vs Trent Yawney .396 (7-12-2). No Playoffs. Net Change .055

3. Andy Murray .580 (27-18-11) vs Mike Kitchen .291 (7-17-4). No Playoffs but the team's winning percentage was almost doubled. Net change=.289

Summary: None of the coaching changes this season would produce a playoff run, but all three teams did improve and two of them (Blues and Jackets) improved substantially. Both Hitchcock and Murray would later take their teams to the playoffs albeit both exiting in the first round.

2007/2008

1. Bruce Boudreau .664 (37-17-7) vs Glen Hanlon .310 (6-14-1). Playoffs? Duh. Very memorable run from Thanksgiving through April. Best to just forget how it ended (I'm Don Koharski...goalie interference? what's tha..hey is that a donut?) Net Change= .354

Both coaching changes in the NHL this year came from the Southeast, but as mentioned above, Waddell took over after 6 games, so Gabby is the only one relevant to this study. To this point in the post-lockout NHL, BB was the most successful mid-season replacement. Lamiorello had a slightly better winning percentage but he was also taking over a veteran team he had built himself. Not quite the same thing as taking a team of 21/22 year olds who'd never known anything but losing at the NHL level and turning them into division champions. Lest there be another banner raised, we'll stop there.

2008/2009

1. *Dan Bylsma* .800 (18-3-4) vs Michel Therrien .518 (27-25-5). Easily the (disco) king of the midseason replacement coaches. Best winning % and a cup. This still makes me sick though, even though I do respect Disco Dan. Stars added because there are a lot of similarities between the Pens of that year and the Caps of this year. Former Jack Adams winner? Check. Underperforming yet talented roster? Check. Even the game count of Therrien is pretty close to BB's total this year. The one thing missing (so far) are the key deadline acquisitions...cough cough...2C...cough cough cough. Obviously if a change is made, this is the dream scenario. Net Change=.282

2.Cory Clouston 19-11-4 .618 vs Craig Hartsburg .427 (17-24-7). No playoffs, but the Sens played a hell of a lot better after making the switch to ~~Willem Dafoe~~ Clouston. Net Change= .191

3. John Tortorella (12-7-2) .619 vs Tom Renney (31-23-7) .566. Playoffs: Yep. Good guys beat em, too :D Also somewhat relevant to our present situation in that the Rangers hit the skids with a few months left in the season after starting off well. Record from Dec 3rd (W over Pit) to Feb 22 when Renney was fired: 14-16-5. Caps record from Dec 1 to the present: 10-9-8. The big caveat here is that the Rangers of this season were VERY good in the shootout and would not have sniffed the playoffs without it. We're just...bad...at over time. Net Change: .053

Summary: 3 Coaching changes, 2 playoff runs, 1 Stanley Cup. Average improvement=.176

2009/2010

1. Peter Laviolette .545 (28-23-5) vs John Stevens .519 (13-12-1). Marginal improvement of .026 in the regular season but the big story would obviously be the run to the SCFs.

2. Claude Noel .541 (10-8-6) vs Ken Hitchcock .449. No playoffs. Net Improvement=.098

Summary: While injury kept the Flyers down for most of the regular season and they didn't make the playoffs until the last day of the season in a gimmick win, they did roll on to the finals. Hard to argue that this was not a successful coaching change for them. CBJ missed the playoffs last year and Noel was not invited back. Average improvement= .062.

So what do all these numbers tell us? Teams generally do better after a coach is replaced. Out of 14 coaching changes listed here, 12 teams posted a higher winning percentage under the new regime. As for the two that didn't, the Kings fired Andy Murray at the tail end of the year creating something of an NFL/MLB type effect on the team's fortunes as opposed to the usual NHL one. The other was the 06/07 Pens who were not yet ready to climb out of the toilet, but even then the decline was minute. .002. The average improvement for these 14 teams was .119. The Caps' current winning percentage is .516. Extrapolate that across the 30 remaining games, you come up with 31 points. 31+64=95 which SHOULD be enough to secure a bottom 5 playoff spot. Prima Facie, it would seem that Gabby doesn't need to go anywhere.

Win % at the Verizon center is .696. With 13 remaining home games, one could expect 16 more points out of 26 to be collected at home. Road win percentage is .521. With 17 remaining road games, one can expect 17.7 out of a possible 34 points. That gives a better number than looking at the straight win percentage, a total of 33.7 points compared to the 31 as seen above. The problem with reading these numbers straight up? It takes into account the WHOLE season. The Capitals win % as of December 1 was .731 (18-6-2....seems like a distant memory, eh?) . Since then, Home % is .462 (3-4-6). Away: .500 (5-5-2). If THESE numbers continue, expected home points drop to 12 and away to an even 17. 29 vs 33.7. 93 points. Still not overly scared? Take a look at the schedule. 14/30 games remaining are against teams which currently hold a playoff spot. LA, Carolina and St. Louis are still in the hunt at present. That means 17 out of 30 games are against playoff contenders. That's a rough road, folks. Given the way we've been playing of late, I think 29 points would be generous vs that quality of opponent. That .119 average improvement would provide some added cushion and maybe even improve our seeding (assuming Tampa falls back to earth, which I keep waiting for and it just keeps on not happening.

So there you have it, I think the math at least puts Bruce's head on the block. It is probably still a little too early to pull the lever to drop the guillotine, but if we lose to Tampa and Pittsburgh this week, the 2nd big losing streak of the year grows to 5 games and our expected point share goes from 29 to 26-27. It'll only get worse from there. Its not too late for the guys to bail out their coach. If he's as likable as NHL players seem to think he is and the team enjoys playing for him, maybe they'll finally extract their heads from their asses and the Washington Capitals will stop being a macrocosm of Alex Semin: All the talent in the world, when they want to use it but lazy and stupid when they don't feel like trying. If extraction proves too difficult...best to do something before it is absolutely too late and we wind up like the 07/08 Carolina Hurricanes.

p.s.

To anyone who actually read all this: thanks! Thoughts and comments are always appreciated. Lets Go Caps.

Poll

Should GMGM hand Gabby his last meal of barbeque sauce flavored haagen dazs and get another coach?

Yes

203 votes

No

117 votes

320 votes | Poll has closed

sensors in the puck

capsfansteve — Fri, 24 Dec 2010 07:35:49 -0000

The refs absolutely made the right call on the Green no goal...but seriously, how freaking hard would it be to put a sensor in every puck that would go off once the puck fully crosses the goal line? If that puck tonight was in the mesh of the glove, its a goal, in the pocket of it, no goal...but why leave it to speculation? This kinda thing is so irritating because we clearly have the technology to fix this.

Wise suspended...mmm karmalicious

capsfansteve — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 20:23:27 -0000

Wise suspended...mmm karmalicious

I'm surprised anyone took his tweet seriously...with all due respect, its just Mike Wise.

82/83 O-Pee-Chee set

capsfansteve — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 01:48:55 -0000

82/83 O-Pee-Chee set

Puck Daddy linked a website that lets you open a virtual pack of 82/83 O-Pee-Chee cards...Took me about 50 clicks to find this one, haha.

Seriously CSN? Ovie is the same as LeBron?

capsfansteve — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 03:05:29 -0000

Seriously CSN? Ovie is the same as LeBron?

I really hate CSN sometimes. Ted needs to make Monumental Sports network happen. and not hire idiots like this.

CBA question/criticism

capsfansteve — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 03:28:53 -0000

So, in response to the absurd abuse of the CBA worked by Lou Lamoriello today, I have a question for the people who have a better grasp of the CBA than I do. Would it be within the rules to tack on years to an existing contract to futz with the cap hit? If so, give Ovie a 10 year extension on his contract. 10 mil for the first 3 years, 5, 3, 500k. He gets another 40 million tacked onto his contract, and we get his cap number down to 7.17 from 9.58. 2.4 can go a long way on depth signings (brooks, fehr, etc). Even if you lessen the descent to 10, 10, 10, 7, 5, 3, it still knocks 2 mil off his hit. Of course, if I didn't think the KHL would try its damnedest to poach him in 2021, I might have picked numbers more reasonable for a guy in his mid 30s...but I'd rather not see him play anywhere else.

I don't really like this circumvention of the salary cap, but if other teams are going to do it...we need to keep up. You know Shero is going to pull crap like this in 2013 (crosby) and 2014 (malkin) if the loophole hasn't been closed.

Oates to the Devils

capsfansteve — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 00:06:41 -0000

Oates to the Devils

Hopefully he doesn't fix the Devils Power play too much

Call me crazy....

capsfansteve — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 18:02:55 -0000

So Jason Spezza's unhappy in Ottawa...we've got a 40 goal scorer that probably isn't coming back after this season and the net cap difference is only 1 million. We need a center....am I nuts or could this work?

Huet Gives Up a Softie

capsfansteve — Mon, 31 May 2010 06:46:58 -0000

Huet Gives Up a Softie

Still not the worst goal he's given up this year. Thanks Dale Tallon!

(oh and to the snark brigade, I tried saving this as an image, but it wouldn't let me).

So some website was making fun of Jason Alexander and his new Jenny Craig schtick by showing all...

capsfansteve — Tue, 18 May 2010 00:24:20 -0000

So some website was making fun of Jason Alexander and his new Jenny Craig schtick by showing all the old junk food commercials he used to do....there's a certain team in this ad that seems somewhat familiar.

Offer sheet for Pavelski?

capsfansteve — Mon, 03 May 2010 00:35:25 -0000

So...Pavelski is an RFA...and a 2nd line center...and a playoff stud. Offer sheet?

judge's ruling

capsfansteve — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 20:18:00 -0000

Alright, so I haven't shaved since the day we clinched 1st seed(a coincidence, I will admit...I just really hate shaving). Judge's ruling, since we've essentially been in playoff mode since that day(or even before), is it acceptable to keep this thing as a playoff beard, or must I shave and start over before the start of the QFs?

Jersey washing advice?

capsfansteve — Thu, 25 Mar 2010 20:04:09 -0000

Okay so I've searched the archives on the site as well as google and haven't really found a good answer to the question--can a sharpie inked autograph survive the wash? My Ovie sweater is getting a little gnarly(It was #8s turn in the rotation when we started the epic winning streak and there were a few too many beers consumed on a few of those nights haha) and as its the only autographed sweater I have, I guess I'm a little paranoid. Any washing instructions/advice(dry cleaning?) would be much appreciated. Thanks Rink Rats and Rabbits.

So this caps fan walks into a bar...

capsfansteve — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 17:18:30 -0000

So last night I was at a local watering hole(Caddies on Cordell in Bethesda) minding my own business and getting smoked in Golden Tee when I happened to turn around to the booth behind me. The gentleman sitting in that booth was talking about the Olympics(hockey specifically) with the waitress when I realized, wait a minute, I know that guy! That's Mike Green! Almost at that precise moment, the waitress asked Greenie if he played hockey. Unable to contain my fanboy geekout, I interjected that "Yeah he kinda plays hockey and he's kinda good at it, too." Then I said to him: "Dude you got robbed and you should be in Vancouver right now, but since you're here, would you mind if I got your autograph?" He laughed and obliged my humble request. I got a picture out of it too, said thanks and let him go back to his dinner.

It really is true what they say, hockey players are the coolest, most approachable athletes that there are. I've met other athletes(Redskins mostly) in non-team function situations and they weren't nearly as laid back as Mike was. It was a nice unexpected surprise/Caps jolt to my hockey starved system. Just thought I'd share.

Uncle Ted, you magnificent bastard!

capsfansteve — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 00:43:40 -0000

Yes, boys and girls, I mean that as a COMPLIMENT. I just got my STH invoice for 10/11 and at first blush, I was a bit taken aback by the jump in price. I sit in section 409 and currently pay $22 per game per seat. Next year will be $29. My initial reaction was something along the lines of, damn this is going to hurt a bit. A (nearly) 32% increase per game is no small amount. But then I started to think about what it all means.

The major reason why my tickets currently cost a pittance relative to the quality of the entertainment I receive on a nightly basis is because there were so few season ticket holders. ~~Mr. Leonsis~~ Uncle Ted had to so incentivize the purchase of season tickets to get butts in the seats that the tickets were offered for next to nothing when compared to face value. I'm not going to pretend like I am a long time holder, preaching from on high. This is my first season as a STH. If anyone deigns to comment on my little post here(and its my first of any length here on the Rink, so please be gentle..and buy me a drink first ;), I'm not going to be completely stunned if I get the obligatory bandwagon insults. However, I remember going to games against the Flyers and the Penguins back in the day and there were more DBs in Orange and Black or Black and Gold than there were in White or Blue Black and Bronze. Sorry I'm only in my mid 20s I don't really remember the first incarnation of the Red, White and Blue days that well. I digress. The point is, Uncle Ted has transformed this team and more importantly this town. Not exactly a revolutionary statement on my part, but I believe that it bears repeating given the piece of mail that many of us received today.

I need look no further than the mirror to find a perfect illustration of that point. I'm sure to invite further derision by admitting this, but in my youth, I was merely a casual fan(gasp!). A big part of this was that I didn't get HTS until I was 12(1996) and my parents didn't know much about or care for hockey, so I wasn't indoctrinated in the art of puck as I was football and baseball. It was rare that I got to see a game on TV, much less go to the Capital Centre or the artist formerly known as the MCI center(though I did make occasional appearances). If someone had told me 7 years ago that I would one day be a raving Capitals lunatic, I'd have stared at them with a puzzled look. Truth be told, I had my doubts about GMGM's rebuilding effort. A large part of that had to do with the dishing of my favorite player from boyhood, one Peter Bondra. Hindsight being what it is, fantastic move, because who doesn't Laich Brooksie...but at the time, I was a sad panda. Then came the lockout, another year off. The Bondra disappointment spilled over into 05/06 and it took me awhile before I stopped flipping right through a Caps game. Then it happened. I just so happened to be watching on a certain night when a certain goal was scored against a stunned team from the desert. From that point, I've been hooked. Mr. Leonsis' forthwright ways and personable style, combined with one hell of an exciting product have only fueled the fire, but on that day, I first realized just what we had in #8, and I was in love.

It took much of DC a little longer than myself to come to that realization, and in no small part do we have Uncle Ted to thank for this. He and GMGM have worked tirelessly on fan relations as well as the on-ice product to change a lasting impression that this town had when it came to the Caps. There were empty seats in a STANLEY CUP FINAL in 1998 and now there's a season ticket wait list. The team and the town have come a long way, no matter what Mike Wise thinks. So while it will hurt my wallet and maybe cause me to consume a fewer number of brews when I venture down to the Verizon Center next season, I fully embrace the price hike on my season tickets. This isn't some cash mad owner trying to put the screws to us for every penny he can(cough cough, Daniel Snyder, cough cough). It is a valuation adjustment which appreciates the fact that due to low demand, the cost to season ticket holders was much lower than it could have been. Good for Ted, good for the Caps and good for the Team. This beer is for you, Mr. Lenosis. You have my sincerest gratitude for making me more fully appreciate a wonderful sport(and yeah, Ovie didn't hurt, but he'd be off skating somewhere else if not for you), and I enthusiastically click the ONLINE RENEWAL button from my email, price hike or not.

--Capsfansteve

p.s. to anyone who actually read all this crap, thanks!

--Capsfansteve

p.s. to anyone who actually read all this crap, thanks!

NBC = Fail.

capsfansteve — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:26:47 -0000

NBC = Fail.

NBC hockey fail part 3. First was letting Pierre McGuire talk through a Red Wings goal. 2nd was said McGuire describing Sarge as "nasty". 3rd= this.