Spahn and Sain and two days of rain.

Tanana and Ryan and two days of cryin’.

The Angels in 2011: Weaver and Haren and three days of swearin’.

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Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, during his weekly news conference on Thursday, said discussions about building a major league baseball stadium were “very serious.”

“I’m not going to tell you that it’s imminent,” Goodman said to reporters gathered at Las Vegas City Hall.

The mayor, who has seen a professional sports franchise as his legacy, hinted that the discussions were in the early stages and he would assurances that a team would move to Las Vegas if a stadium is built.

But which team?

“I have been advised we are designated an American League city,” he said.

This means either an expansion team or the A's are moving, right?

http://www.fox5vegas.com/sports/24689609/detail.html

I know we're all upset about Jered Weaver being snubbed and left off the AL All-Star roster, but what better way to grieve than to grieve together?

I'm fortunate enough to be able to go to the All-Star Game this year at the Big A, and I thought it'd be a good occasion to have a Halos Heaven meet-up at the stadium. What do you guys think? If it sounds like a good idea, when/where should it happen?

This article has me enraged, so I'll present some money quotes without comment. Let's discuss to our hearts' content.

The best team in baseballisn't even the biggest story in its own city. Right now, Los Angeles is all caught up in the Dodgers' magic number and only casually interested in the Angels' magic team.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim adopted a city, and the city it adopted mostly shrugs in return.

We are all Dodgers, all the time, 24/7 Blue Heaven. What if they were a really good team? What if they win another playoff game? Will we offer our firstborn in celebration?

...

The days ahead will be exciting. All eyes will be on the Dodgers, as clinching-time approaches. The headlines will get bigger, the news broadcasts louder. Those who get paid handsomely these days to count Web hits will do so joyously, because Dodger buzz always drives Internet clatter.

It is late September, almost always Dodger time here. All eyes will be focused on Chavez Ravine. In this city, the Dodgers will have it all.

So I'm in a bit of a quandry. I've been accepted to a pretty good law school located in the greater Boston area, and I'm leaning towards making the journey out to New England.

"That's not a problem, Wraith," you must be thinking. "You should be happy! What a wonderful opportunity to sell your soul! Don't be an asshole!" Well, I am happy and grateful, but my problem is this: I have never really spent long amount of time far from Halo Nation. I went to Stanford for undergrad, but (as we've discussed before) that part of the Bay Area is so split between Giants territory and a mere handful of A's fans that I may well have been patrolling the Neutral Zone looking for errant Romulans.

What is so personally frightening is that I may be going from that relatively calm to the heart of the monster, the very center of Red Sox Nation.

My question for those of you who live far from Angel Stadium is how best to deal with the distance from our beloved team. How do you watch the broadcasts (please tell me there's some other way besides MLB.tv)? If you live in an area nearby one of the other 29 major league clubs, what is the most effective way to deal with the sometimes-hostile fans of other teams? Perhaps more importantly, how do you cope with the emotional pain imposed by the sad separation (perhaps I may be exaggerating)?

If any of you live in the greater Boston area, your help would be greatly appreciated.

From MLB Trade Rumors:

"According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Rays are "moving toward a deal" to sign free agent reliever Troy Percival.  This could give them a potentially solid veteran relief group in Juan Rincon, Dan Wheeler, Percival, and Al Reyes.

Percival was known to have been seeking a multiyear deal (I'm guessing two years, $10MM or so).  Other suitors: Yankees, Brewers, Giants, and Astros."

And Rotoworld:

"ESPN's Buster Olney reports that the Rays and free agent Troy Percival are working on a deal.
He's believed to have offers from contenders, so we can't imagine that Percival would go to Tampa Bay without a promise of the closer's role. That'd make Al Reyes the eighth-inning guy, with Dan Wheeler and Juan Rincon working earlier in games. Only three spots would remain for a token lefty, Gary Glover, Chad Orvella, Grant Balfour, Scott Dohmann and others."

Now before someone says something, I realize that the following quotes came from a Bill Plaschke article. I will be the first to admit that Plaschke (much like his Times compatriot TJ Simers) is a blithering douchebag. But even Plaschke's particular brand of ill-informed muckraking cannot detract from the wisdom imparted by the words of Mr. Angel himself:

"I love the way these guys won the division manufacturing runs," Tim Salmon said. "But why did we win the World Series? We won because Scott Spiezio hit a home run. We did not win because Scott Spiezio hit a single."

...

"It's frustrating to watch," said Salmon, who was careful to note that he was not being critical of the players or the manager.

"The players are great at what they do, and you'll never hear Mike complain about anything," Salmon said. "But you can't deny that every team in this position needs a couple of clutch hitters who, late in the game, can win a game in one swing."

...

As Salmon noted, manufacturing runs against different levels of pitchers during the regular season is one thing, but trying to do it against everybody's ace in the postseason is a different thing entirely.

"I think we saw the other night, maybe the only way to manufacture two runs against a guy like Josh Beckett would be to hit a two-run homer," Salmon said.

Angels are pretty much powerless

I thought that I would respond to this walk-off loss with doom, gloom, and a deserved suicide watch by my family. But I'm strangely calm. Why?

Because we've won three division titles in four years. Because we've won a world championship. There are a lot of clubs that can't say that.

We simply weren't as ready for this postseason as we could have been. Vlad has a bum wing, GA decided to contract pinkeye, and an already-injured GMJ came up lame catching a flyball in his old stomping grounds. It sucks, yeah, and it hurts, but at least we got to the dance and we had a chance to take home the gold. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and the baseball gods don't look like they're willing to call our number this year.

The outlook for this series may be bleak, but the future looks very bright. Kendrick and Kotchman are still young. A healthy Howie is going to hit close to .400 at a usually offensively-weak position, and Kotch's doubles power will turn into out-of-the-park power as he gets older. A healthy Napoli and a more mature Mathis will give us a solid catching duo. I'm going to make acuda happy and say that Kendry gives us a good option at DH, and we mercifully have a glut at that spot with a healthy Johnny Rivers, provided he doesn't think about sliding into first again.

On the pitching side, Lackey is going to continue to mature and settle in as the staff ace. Jered Weaver is going to build upon a fairly solid sophomore campaign (when many prognosticators were predicting a disaster-filled 5-ERA season) and give us numbers worthy of a number-two pitcher in the third spot of the rotation. Saunders will mature as well and give us a solid lefty arm in the rotation.

And that's what we've got at the major league level. Brandon Wood will provide Glaus-like power (with better defense) at third sack. Terry Evans is going to provide us some pop at one of the corner outfield positions when GA retires and Vladdy makes the eventual move to DH. Nick Adenhart still has his arm attached.

The reality is that we were a few strikes and a foul-ball-caught-by-a-chowda-head away from taking  a split series back to Anaheim. Scioscia took a rational gamble walking Ortiz to pitch to Manny, and sometimes gambles don't work out. That was the case tonight. That's baseball.

But at the end of the day, this is a club that will continue to contend for years to come. We are not the Phillies or Rockies, who arguably have this one opportunity to make it to the World Series before lapsing into another postseason drought. We're going to be playing October baseball in 2008, we're going to get another shot in the dance.

So like our good manager says, one game at a time. Look toward tomorrow, don't dwell on today, because tomorrow still looks promising no matter what happens during the rest of the series.

A refreshing article by Tom Verducci debunking many postseason myths, including:

2. The "hot" teams -- the ones that play well down the stretch -- are the ones to fear in the postseason.

Hello? Was anybody watching last year? St. Louis (12-17) and Detroit (12-16) were awful in September, but wound up playing each other in the World Series. But it's not just last year. Of the 24 World Series teams in the wild-card era, 14 of them -- a clear majority -- posted a worse winning percentage after Sept. 1 than they did overall. The Cardinals and Tigers were the sixth and seventh teams in that 12-year period to play losing baseball after Sept. 1 and still reach the World Series.

3. The team that won the season series has the edge over its opponent.

Not so. The next time somebody wants to bring up how playoff teams did against one another during the season, tell them to save their breath. It's irrelevant.

Over the past two seasons, the team that won the season series over its opponent is 3-9 when those same teams meet in league postseason play. Did I hear someone say "small sample"?

OK, let's look at the entire Division Series and League Championship Series history during the wild-card era. The team that won the season series is 33-36 in postseason rematches, including 12-21 since 2001 (excludes three matchups of teams that tied their regular-season series). So fear not the Yankees, Indians fans. October really is a whole new season.

4. It's important to earn home field advantage.

No, it's not. Home teams in postseason games in the wild-card era are 208-182, a .533 winning percentage -- not too different than if you flipped a coin 390 times. It works out to roughly one extra win per year for all postseason teams combined.

But, hey, you say you really want that last game in your park if the series goes the distance, right? Doesn't matter. First of all, 79 percent of Division and League Championship Series never go the maximum number of games (57 of 72). And in those 15 series that did go the distance, the home teams went 5-10.

Now, having World Series Game 7 in your home park might mean something: Home teams are 8-0 in those ultimate games since 1979. But the site of that game is determined by the outcome of the All-Star Game, not by how many games a team wins during the season.

Bottom line: Playoff-certain teams should forget putting the pedal to the metal. Rest your players, especially your pitchers. The postseason -- no matter what myths you want to believe -- as Billy Beane so well put it, really is a crapshoot.

Pure fiction

More evidence of the role chance plays in small sample sizes (like playoff series).

BRING ON THE SOX!

Following up on and confirming a story posted by scareduck, from the Riverside Press-Enterprise:

"Despite lasting just seven batters on Tuesday and frequently testing the Angels' patience, Ervin Santana will remain part of the rotation and make his next scheduled start, a team source said Friday.

It had been widely speculated that Dustin Moseley, who relieved Santana on Tuesday and allowed just two hits in 5 1/3 sparkling innings, would take Santana's spot in the rotation until Bartolo Colon returns from injury.

However, after working in the bullpen, Santana will take the mound Monday against Oakland. "

linky

How many second acts are allowed in Angels baseball?

From the Angels' official website:

It was significant on two fronts -- the comeback by Santana, who once again resembled the 16-game winner from 2006, and the comeback in the ninth inning against a man once known as the most dominant closer of them all.

"Ervin throwing the ball the way we saw is going to be very big for us, and he's going to start next week for us [at Angel Stadium]," Scioscia said.

Working quickly and finding an excellent rhythm with Ryan Budde, who caught him all the way back at Class A ball, Santana retired 16 of the first 17 hitters he faced, throwing mid-90s consistently with a quality slider and changeup that kept hitters off balance."

I think Budde should be Ervin's personal catcher until Napoli comes back.

Angels rally to split the bill with Sox

The Red Sox, with ace pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, could start the 2008 season at the Tokyo Dome, the No. 2 official of the players' association said Wednesday. The Los Angeles Angels or Oakland Athletics are the most likely opponent, with the Seattle Mariners also a possibility, several people familiar with the discussions said.

"It's going to be exciting," Boston third baseman Mike Lowell said. "We've got some marquee names that are going to bring a lot of attention over there. So in that sense it's great, but I don't think guys are too happy to go 22 hours on a plane to play games that count. It's not the game itself. It's the aftereffects."

I for one hope that it's Seattle or Oakland. That plane ride is going to be nasty.

Linky here

"Ramon Vazquez hit a two-run homer with two outs in the eighth inning off previously unblemished closer J.J. Putz, and the Texas Rangers beat the Seattle Mariners 7-6 on Wednesday night to complete a four-game sweep.

Putz hadn't allowed a run in 16 road appearances this season and had converted a majors-best 31 consecutive save chances since last season, including all 29 this year."

Mariners swept by Rangers

I guess it couldn't last forever, could it?

At the original thread, johnnyangel wanted to see data comparing the Angels' playoff readiness against other contenders in the American League. Well, ask and you shall receive, both here and at Light Up That Halo!:

Detroit Tigers
Closer WXRL: Todd Jones, 0.509 wins, 24th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.40 K/9, 19th in the majors

FRAA: 3 runs, tied for 12th in the majors

One of my good friend's favorite pastimes is poking fun at Todd Jones. With a 5.35 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, it's easy to see why. The data clearly reflects that, as Todd Jones is in the closer cellar. Joel Zumaya would be an incredible upgrade if he were able to play Guitar Hero, but the Tigers' bullpen current, woeful state makes Jones the best option. The Tigers defense is nothing to write home about, and while everyone raves about the Tiger pitching staff, it appears that they rely more on the flyout and groundout. Bonderman and Verlander are strikeout machines, but after that the highest K/9 rate for Tiger starters is Andrew Miller and Kenny Rogers with 6.1.

What is keeping the Tigers in contention? Their offense, easily. They lead all of baseball in runs scored with 503. Whenever their pitching and defense fail to make par, their bats can bail the team out and push enough runs past the plate to win. Will this translate well in the playoffs? Not necessarily, according to Silver and Perry. No offensive categories had a particularly strong correlation with postseason success.

Cleveland Indians
Closer WXRL: Joe Borowski, 1.756 wins, 15th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.43 K/9, 17th in the majors

FRAA: 3 runs, tied for 12th in the majors

Joe Borowski has been another closing joke. Borowski is a case-in-point for the relative uselessness of absolute statistics--while he leads the American League in saves, Borowski sports a 5.35 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Borowski has been clutching onto the last thread of a fraying rope, pitching just well enough to keep his job. Like the Tigers, their defense is nothing spectacular.

The Indians are eerily similar to the Tigers: all hit, average glove, (and unlike the Tigers) an average rotation (C.C. Sabathia notwithstanding) and a horrible closer. Like the Tigers, it's unclear whether that balance will translate well into October baseball.

Milwaukee Brewers
Closer WXRL: Francisco Cordero, 1.750 wins, 16th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.16 K/9, 4th in the majors

FRAA: -3 runs, tied for 17th in the majors

This season's version of the Detroit Tigers have succeeded thus far using blistering bats and studs on the mound. Prince Fielder and surprise shortstop slugger J.J. Hardy highlight a pounding Brewers offense, and a rotation that includes Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano is one to be reckoned with. Francisco Cordero's relatively low WXRL is, like the other closing Francisco, a bit surprising. I'll have to look into what the deal with Cordero is.

That said, the Brewers defense ranks in the bottom half of the major leagues. Who are the culprits? Except for third base (primarily Braun and Counsell) every infield position is posting negative FRAA scores. The team's offensive stars are also their defensive weakest link, with Fielder sporting a -7 score and Hardy a -6. outfield is mostly solid except for centerfielder Bill Hall, who stumbles in with a -10 FRAA rating. Best way to beat the Brewers? Wear out their starters, and force them to throw you good pitches, preferably on the ground down the middle. If you hit a ground ball or line drive at that infield, there's a fair chance you'll still score a hit.

New York Mets
Closer WXRL: Billy Wagner, 3.043 wins, 4th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.77 K/9, 14th in the majors

FRAA: 25 runs, tied for 2nd in the majors

Besides the Red Sox, the Mets may be the most balanced of the contenders. Billy Wagner is nails, and the Metropolitan defense is sparkling. Fulfilling something that was much-discussed in the preseason, the Mets' pitching staff is a bit suspect. Yes, Oliver Perez and John Maine are having great years, with both striking out eight per game, but both sport low BABIP scores and large DIPS differentials, suggesting that both are due for some regression. After Maine and Perez, though, no Mets starter sports a K/9 score over 5. The reintroduction of El Duque and, later in the season, Pedro may change that.

Atlanta Braves
Closer WXRL: Bob Wickman, so low I can't even find him on the charts, but 1.6 wins last year

Strikeout Rate: 6.78, 13th in the majors

FRAA: -5 runs, 18th in the majors

After looking at the data, I'm not exactly sure I've considered the Braves contenders, but perhaps I should reconsider given the mere three games that separate them from the Mets and their history. Bob Wickman's scores are awful, though that may be due to a prolonged trip to the disabled list. Atlanta's closing situation will require more reexamination later in the season. What is there to say about their pitching? Smoltz may be Smoltzy, but his spotty health along with that of Tim Hudson has decreased their staff's effectiveness. Will good health for those two hurlers improve the Braves' outlook? Maybe. Even if those two aces return to form, it remains to be seen if that awful Braves defense can stop balls from dropping in for hits.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Closer WXRL: Takasi Saito, 3.93 wins, 2nd among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.68 K/9, 1st in the majors

FRAA: -6 runs, 19th in the majors

The story for the Dodgers begins with pitching and ends with pitching. Despite its current patchwork look, the Dodgers rotation has been nails. It says something when All-Star and possible Midsummer Classic starter Brad Penny is at the cellar of the rotation with 6.7 K/9. Likewise, the Dodger bullpen (save the middling Brett Tomko) has been excellent, especially the 8th and 9th inning combination of Broxton and Saito. Saito is currently the second most valuable closer in the major leagues. There was a lot of concern in the preseason that his deceptive delivery may no longer deceive major league hitters, but halfway through the season he continues to baffle batters.

The chink in the Blue Crew's armor is the defense. Anecdotally, I've watched a lot of Dodger games (my guilty pleasure after Angels games--nothing beats Vin Scully) where expectedly convertible outs became "and it goes under the glove of [insert name of infielder here]!" Just today, with a man on third, an easy groundout to second became an error and a run when Jeff Kent sent the ball airmail-style to James Loney. The cause of this defensive inefficacy is likely what plagued the Angels last season: musical chairs position players, especially on the corners of the infield. While Nomar came up as a slick-fielding shortstop, he's been a dud defensively, this season posting negative FRAA scores at both corner bags. His primary predecessor at third Wilsom Betemit, has been below average with the glove, and Jeff Kent may as well wear a cooking mitt on the field with a -12 FRAA. The outfield has been a bloody butcher shop, with Gonzo horrible in left and Pierre (and his oddly small head, but I'll save that for another day) below average in center. I'm unsure if this state of affairs will continue in the infield--give the Dodgers some stability (Nomah at third, Loney at first) and you may see some improvement. However, the outfield will continue to be questionable as Gonzo and Pierre figure to remain starters. Want to beat the Dodgers? Hit the ball hard at infielders not named Furcal, or hit hard, hard, hard, line drives to the outfield.

San Diego Padres
Closer WXRL: Trevor Hoffman, 2.50 wins, 5th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.71, 15th in the majors

FRAA: 9 runs, 9th in the majors

Once I acquire Extra Innings, Padres games will become my second guilty pleasure. No bat all arm seems to be a meme for California baseball. Like the Halos, A's, Giants, and Dodgers
the Padres sport a spotty offense. Their success has come because of their pitching, which leads the major leagues in staff ERA with 3.05. Despite that efficiency, they are square in the middle in staff K/9 rate. What gives? Ace Jake Peavy sports an insane 10.2 K/9, and recent All-Star addition Chris Young is close with 9.1 K/9. The answer is in the rest of the staff. This, combined with the fact that three of the starters (Young, Germano and Wells) do not exhibit groundball rates greater than 50%, indicates the Padre rotation is dominated by flyball pitchers. The biggest whiffer of the bullpen is Health Bell, but no other reliever strikes out more than 8 batters per nine. Trevor Hoffman isn't much of a groundballer, and given his low (for a closer) K/9 rate of 6.0, he also seems to be a bit of a flyball man. Does that really matter? No. Hoffman continues to display the artistry of changing speeds remaining effective, and by effective I mean continuing to be an elite closer.

If the Padres aren't a team that powers the ball past batters, their postseason chances may depend on the efficacy of their defense. The infield is solid aside from third base. However, given the flyball propensities of the pitching staff and the cavernous abyss that is Petco Park, this is especially true of the outfield. This may be a problem, as only Jose Cruz has been effective with the glove. Mike Cameron and half of the Brothers Giles are defensive liabilities, the former with -7 runs and the latter with -5. Padres pitchers may want to keep the ball low, or else every ball hit high into the San Diego air may be a reason to hold your breath.

For some reference, let's look at the Halos and Sox again:

Angels
Closer WXRL: Frankie Rodriguez, 2.267 wins, 7th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.04 K/9, 6th in the majors

FRAA: 18 runs, 6th in the majors

Boston Red Sox
Closer WXRL: Jonathan Papelbon, 3.627 wins, 3rd among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.09 K/9, 5th in the majors

FRAA: 11 runs, tied for 7th in the majors

Paps has been lights-out as expected. The Boston pitching staff is just a hair better in K/9 than the Angels, though admittedly it would be better with a full season of Schilling and Beckett. The Sox defense is a bit less effective than the Angels', but not by much.

Conclusion
If I were a betting man, I would consider the Angels, Mets and Red Sox as the strong trio of the contenders. The Mets are likely the weakest of the three because of their rotation. What does this mean? If the Halos can hold off the surprisingly surging Mariners and win the Western Division, then we can be optimistic about the team's chances in the playoffs, except if the Halos have to face the Sox in the Division or League Series, or the Metropolitans in the World Series.

Over at Light Up That Halo!, I want to start a weekly series inspired by Baseball Between the Numbers. The book's final chapter, "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Shit Work in the Playoffs?" was inspired by a quote from A's general manager Billy Beane in Moneyball. When asked why the Oakland A's, despite their string of regular season successes, have had such trouble in the playoffs, Beane proclaimed that the playoffs are a crapshoot. The A's of the lastdecade have not been defective, but merely the victims of bad luck.

While we've long since derided that concept as typical Fremont whining, especially after the A's were swept in last season's ALCS, Beane is essentially correct. There may be no better proof for that fact than the Cardinals' World Series victory last season despite an 83-win season. While admitting that, in some part, luck determines playoff outcomes, Baseball Prospectus authors Nate Silver and Dayn Perry decided to determine what factors, if any, correlate with playoff success. They found three possessing solid correlations, and interestingly none involve the offense.

• Closer WXRL - Because the postseason inherently self-selects the best teams, the outcomes of playoff games are often close. Thus, a club's ability to hand even the slimmest of leads to a dominant closer can give it a needed edge over a potent opponent. However, they found that it is only the closer that really matters; the performance of the bullpen as a whole had a much weaker correlation with playoff success.
• Pitching Staff Strikeout Rate - While Silver and Perry actually found that a pitching staff's batting average against has a solid correlation with postseason success, they chose to measure the staff's strikeout rate instead. While a groundout or flyout is just creates the same outcome as a strikeout, they argue (with some proof) that good hitters have an ability to take advantage of finesse pitchers. Because playoff teams tend to have more quality hitters than the average team, a club blessed with power, strikeout-oriented pitchers will be able to neutralize that advantage and pacify even playoff-caliber offenses.
• Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) - FRAA is a measure of how many runs a defense prevents over the league average, adjusted for stuff like ballpark factors. Silver and Perry argue that a team with both strikeout pitchers and an efficient defense will be very difficult to score against. In order to get a hit against such a team, a hitter must first be able to hit a fair ball off the pitcher, and second, hit the ball past the defense. They argue that defense matters in the playoffs because playoff teams have more quality hitters who can hit the ball harder and put more pressure on the defense.
• While I realize that I may be getting ahead of myself--the season is barely half over and the division is far from won--but I think this season's team has as good a chance to make the postseason as any since the destined 2002 squad. So, let's see how the Halos do:

Closer WXRL: Frankie Rodriguez, 2.267 wins, 7th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.04 K/9, 6th in the majors

FRAA: 18 runs, 6th in the majors

As expected, the Angels' pitching staff has been pretty effective, ranking among the top 10 in K/9. This success comes despite the struggles suffered by Halo hurlers, most notably at the back end of the rotation and the front end of the bullpen. The defense is much improved over last year's squad, which had an FRAA of 9 runs. The source of this improvement is likely due to greater position stability, especially at center field (Matthews) and first base (Kotchman). The most perplexing thing to consider is Frankie's relatively low WXRL ranking. Last year K-Rod was first among closers with 7.301 wins added. Can his statistics explain the difference?

ERA WHIP DIPS K/9 BB/9 BAA BIPA LVG
2006 1.73 1.10 2.57 12.10 3.45 .197 .275 2.00
2007 2.27 1.17 2.41 12.34 3.52 .211 .301 1.41

Frankie's current WHIP and ERA are higher than last season, and he is a bit more hittable this year. Oddly, he is striking out more batters while walking more of them. However, Frankie may be a victim of bad luck, as an average BIPA/BABIP is .290. Most interestingly though, it appears that he has been used in less important situations than last year, as his leverage score is significantly lower. Perhaps the Angels, enjoying a more potent offense compared with last year's squad, have provided Frankie with fewer save opportunities, or perhaps he has enjoyed more two- or three-run lead (and thus safer) opportunities. It may also be possible that Scioscia is using Frankie in more non-save, and therefore less important, situations. Nonetheless, because Frankie's peripherals have, on balance, remained about the same, it's possible that he will see some improvement. I have every reason to believe he'll bounce back and once again be among the top three closers in WXRL.

For a bit of context, let's see how the 2002 squad stacks up in these categories:

Closer WXRL: Troy Percival, 6.149 wins, 4th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.19 K/9, 22nd in the majors

FRAA: 70 runs, 5th among the last 180 teams participating in the playoffs

The factoid that jumps out immediately is the 2002 squad's FRAA. I did some additional research, and an FRAA of 70 runs is ridiculous. It is clear that this team was one of the top defensive clubs of the past two or three decades. While Percy did not display the dominance of Frankie's 2005 campaign, he was certainly one of the elite closers in baseball that year. Remember that he was perfect in postseason save opportunities that year (as opposed to say, Rob Nenn). The one factor in which the 2002 squad pales in comparison to this season's team is pitcher strikeout rate. This is not so surprising. A rotation comprising of Jarrod Washburn, Kevin Appier, Ramon Ortiz, Aaron Sele, and rookie John Lackey/Scott Schoeneweiss is undoubtedly inferior to the squad's current rotation.

For some contemporary context, let's examine the team many consider the best in the majors this year, the Boston Red Sox.

Closer WXRL: Jonathan Papelbon, 3.627 wins, 3rd among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.09 K/9, 5th in the majors

FRAA: 11 runs, tied for 7th in the majors

Paps has been lights-out as expected. The Boston pitching staff is just a hair better in K/9 than the Angels, though admittedly it would be better with a full season of Schilling and Beckett. The Sox defense is a bit less effective than the Angels', but not by much. A 9 run differential probably means a difference of a win between the two clubs.

Conclusion
Admittedly, in any best-of-five or best-of-seven series (especially between teams of comparable ability) luck may be the determining factor of playoff success. That said, if Silver and Perry are correct, and if even a small part of luck is the reside of design, the Halos should be more as equipped for postseason success as any of the current top-ten teams in the game. The rotation is among the elite, and the much-improved Halo defense is at least above average. One cause for concern, however, is closer Frankie Rodriguez. While he has not suffered a drastic regression, his performance has dipped a bit, it remains to be seen if he can maintain the level of dominance he exhibited last season.

This does not mean that these factors are completely deterministic, however. As the Halos learned in 2005, an entire postseason series can turn on unaccounted-for factors such as the amount of rest (or lack thereof) between series and blown calls on dropped third strikes by dunce Doug Eddings. Nonetheless, we have reason to be at least guardedly optimistic about the Angels' postseason hopes.

Moved Over From The Diaries

I know this has already been posted in the "All-Star Snubs" thread, but I think it deserves to have its own post.

KELVIM ESCOBAR is facing off against Hideki Okajima of the Red Sox, Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays, Pat Neshek of the Twins, and Jeremy Bonderman of the Tigers for the final spot on the American League All-Star roster.

I think we should be most concerned with Okajima and Bonderman, as Red Sox Nation and last year's AL pennant winners will have plenty of fans trying to propel their boys to San Francisco.

VOTE FOR MYSPACECOBAR NOW!

So vote as long as you can while still remaining sane. There is no limit to the number of times you can vote. The voting ends on Thursday, July 5. Get family and friends to vote, too!

Update 1: Rotoworld thinks Bonderman is the likeliest candidate to be chosen. Let's prove them wrong!

Update 2: jerryhattrick has a great idea--leave the voting window open on your computer all week, and if you have a free moment or are waiting for a page to load, vote for Escobar.

Found nestled at the bottom of an LA Times article about Speier's progress:

"Bartolo Colon appears headed to the disabled list after admitting the triceps tightness that slowed him in early May bothered him throughout Monday's 12-5 loss to the Seattle Mariners, in which he gave up nine runs -- seven earned -- and 11 hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Scioscia said Colon, who sat out most of 2006 because of a rotator-cuff tear, is dealing with "a little dead arm," which is more of a short-term than long-term concern. If Colon alters his mechanics to compensate for his triceps tightness, he could risk re-injuring his shoulder.

"You're always concerned with that," Scioscia said. "If he doesn't make progress over the next couple of days, we'll consider different things. Extra rest could be the answer."

If Colon goes on the disabled list, the Angels probably would recall left-hander Joe Saunders from triple-A Salt Lake or move reliever Dustin Moseley back into the rotation."

Speier is working way back

While we may be gnashing our teeth wishing that we had Howie back at the keystone sack, let's examine how our most competitive division rivals are faring:

-Milton Bradley (DL, left hamstring) and Nick Swisher are still out until later this week (the latter actually saddens me since he's on my fantasy team)

-Mark Kotsay (DL, back surgery) will be out until the All-Star break

-Everyone's least favorite clown, Bobby Kielty (DL, left calf) will be out until later this month

-Esteban Loaiza (DL, right trapezius) will be out at least until late May

-Rich Harden (DL, right shoulder) will be out at least ten more days after Dr. Lewis Yocum (does he service all of baseball!? I thought he was our guy) advised more rest

-Mike Piazza (right shoulder) will be out 4-6 weeks after diving into third base to avoid a tag today against the Red Sox

Let's see, that's the team's prospective ace (more likely a very good number 2 behind Haren), their number 3 starter, their starting left, right and centerfielders, their designated hitter, and their fourth outfielder.

The question I really want to ask: how long until long-time punching bag Bobby Crosby joins his compadres on the IV loveline?

Granted our boys are lacking one slumping GA, and apparently Izzy will also be making a trip to the old DL. While they will be missed, I think we can all agree that the injury situation could be much worse. Just look at the poor green and gold bastards up the 5--they might as well run a full-time triage center at McAfee.

There are two articles about the gyroball today, one in the New York Times and another by Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan.

Finally, the gyroball mystery solved (Yahoo)

The Japanese Gyroball Mystery (Old Grey Lady)

Some quotes:

Hearing this was like hearing Santa Claus doesn't exist. I had started my search for the gyroball nearly a year ago, when Daisuke Matsuzaka was introducing himself to the United States for the first time during the World Baseball Classic. Message boards postulated that he threw this mysterious pitch by using double-spin mechanics, which sounded more like car technology. The pitch was supposed to revolutionize baseball, and when I asked Matsuzaka whether he threw it, he said that he had accidentally and that he wanted to learn it. By the time the Boston Red Sox emptied a Brinks truck to sign Matsuzaka, the gyroball was a full-blown phenomenon.

Turns out everything we thought was wrong.

Well, almost everything.

Now I can say, without question, the gyroball is no myth.

...

And more:

If thrown correctly, Tezuka said, the two-seam gyroball should look to a batter like a slider and act like a fastball. That is why, as described in the title of the book he and Himeno wrote, it is a "miracle pitch."

Bonds was not convinced. In a highlight later on the DVD of Major League Baseball's 2000 tour to Japan, Bonds batted against Tetsuro Kawajiri. He looked at the video of him lunging for a pitch that seemed to have broken backdoor over the outside corner.

"That's a sidearm slider," Bonds said.

I asked whether it was a gyroball.

"I don't know what that is," he said.

What do y'all think?

Saw this on BBTF, from Sports Illustrated:

With Mariano Rivera nearing retirement in New York, the Yankees are already said to be eyeing the Angels' Francisco Rodriguez as a potential replacement. Rodriguez could command a deal in the four-year, $38-million range.
-- Los Angeles Times

I can't find anything on the Times website about this.

Yanks eye K-rod

This is why you should have signed him TO A MULTI-YEAR DEAL.

Took the twenty-five minute trek up to the Big A today. With only this upcoming weekend left to enjoy before I have to leave for school and the icy wastelands of Northern California, I wanted to get my hands on some Halo merch while I still had the opportunity. There's nothing more depressing than going to a Walmart or Target up there and seeing only Oakland and San Francisco paraphernalia on the shelves.

I've always considered the t-shirt rack at the team store as an interesting place to measure a player's standing in the organization (granted I am unaware of the regulations or decisions that go into choosing which players are chosen for the shirts). After deciding to get a Weaver the Younger shirt, I made some interesting observations:

-Why doesn't Lackey get any love? For our ace he was noticeably underrepresented (as in no shirts whatsoever on the rack).
-There are significantly fewer Shields shirts than the last time I was at the stadium. Do they sell quickly or has their production ceased/decreased? A presumptive past decision readying for a possible trade for a bat?
-While I'm on this pitcher thing, why doesn't Santana get any love either? I'd attribute this to trade possibilities, but I noticed a lack of Santana shirts during this past season, too.
-I was (pleasantly) surprised to see Weaver shirts. I always thought it was strange that, during the season, Napoli wear was available but Mr. 9-0 was not.
-Speaking of Napoli, I remember reading here that the popularity of the shirts for the other-catcher-named-Mike is quite high. This was not an exaggeration--there were easily as many Napoli shirts as the dudes we would consider "franchise" players: Frankie, Vlad and GA. (Mathis shirts? Nowhere to be found, unsurprisingly)
-Does anyone actually buy Escobar merch? He had quite a stockpile of shirts on the rack.

And finally, the kicker:

After asking one of the clerks to retrieve my Weaver shirt for me (it's on the top rack, and I'm probably an inch shorter than Figgy), I noticed that the door to the storeroom was open. I took an absentminded peak, and my interest was piqued by what I saw: the number 24. My first thought was "Are you serious?" I took a closer look and sure enough they are hoarding tons of Gary Matthews, Jr. shirts back there. I was surprised they weren't on the rack--they're probably waiting till the season begins so they don't have to order more (one interesting way to mark his progress: go to a game near the end of this upcoming season and count how many people you see wearing number 24).

My one, persisting question is, "When can I buy a Justin Speier shirt?"

I thought we could all use a break from this Shea Hillenbrand firestorm and appreciate what we have.

While admittedly a stathead, Chris Jaffe of Baseball Think Factory has written quite an article rating baseball managers. I'm not mathy enough to really understand the methodology, but the top ten of managers from 2001-present looks like this, with the number being the number of victories added by the manger:

1. Lou Piniella +49
2. Ozzie Guillen +31
3. Ron Gardenhire +30
3. Mike Scioscia +30
5. Bobby Cox +25
6. Dusty Baker +23
7. Jack McKeon +16
8. Art Howe +16
9. Phil Garner +15
10. Jim Tracy +14

Notice Sosh's good standing. Jaffe's analysis also gives some insight into the operational philosophy of the Angels:

...the Angels have had the same basic hitting approach under Scioscia: don't worry about homers and walks, just make contact and put the ball in play. In the last six years they've never been higher than 10th in homers. Meanwhile, they've been the hardest team in the AL to strike out three times, and constantly among the best in offensive K's. They're always in the bottom five in walks taken. Batting average is the centerpiece of their offense. Their rank in hits has been higher than their rank in runs 6 times in his 7 years. While consistent, it is by no means brilliant.

This makes sense. If you're a team deploying a relatively weak offense while favoring batting average (like the Halos), you're going to want your players to engage in small ball: hack away at pitches and wait till one of them is able to get a hit. Then, once they do, you want to be aggressive on the basepaths and make you get the most of that baserunner (by stealing that extra base or two) because there's no telling when your free-swinging players may get another hit to bring 'em home.

On the other hand, if you're a team like the Red Sox that emphasizes OBP, you're going to want to encourage your players to be more patient and get on base in any way they can (be it hits or walks). Once they're on the bags, they should act conservatively. The fact that they're not getting caught attempting to steal bases means that they won't create unnecessary outs. This will allow more hitters to get on base and increase the number of runs scored when your power hitters (Ortiz and Ramirez) jack one out of the park.

Another feature of the article that I thought was impressive was the fact that despite not following the Angels, Jaffe nailed the Angels' style of play on the head using statistics:

Their hitting serves to keep them in the game. I can't prove it, but my guess would be Scioscia's brand of contact hitting offense would also be one of the more consistent offensive strategies on a day-in, day-out basis. You're certainly not going to be as likely to blow people out, and if you can keep making contact you will get some balls to drop every game. It's the Chinese water torture method of hitting. Instead of the non-stop drip-drip-drip from the faucet, you get an onslaught of crack-crack-crack off the bats as they relentlessly try to make something happen...

Scioscia's Angels are designed to be tied 3-3 after seven innings of every game. Then he brings in that dynamite bullpen and shuts down the opposition while his hitters continue their Chinese batting torture. It ain't a complex strategy, but it works. Scioscia needs to make sure he keeps everyone playing hard, keeping their motivation, and handling his bullpen effectively. He's done a brilliant job of that. No wonder they have the rally monkey - this is a team designed to win late.

Sound familiar?

Read the entire article here (and, of course, be sure to take a look at the Scioscia section):

Evaluating managers, part 3

"Apparently prepared to leave the Bay Area, free agent Barry Bonds has instead agreed in principle to stay with the San Francisco Giants, MLB.com reported Thursday night.

The Giants were one of several teams bidding to sign the seven-time NL MVP. But MLB.com reported that the slugger will re-sign with the Giants in a one-year deal expected to be worth $16 million, pending a physical."

Bonds resigns with Giants

Better that he stays on the West side of the Bay Bridge, methinks.

So, I'm slightly obsessed with the budding repository of all human knowledge that is wikipedia. I've noticed that generally, the depth of information on baseball pages (especially player pages) are paltry and just plain sad. The pages for Yankees and Red Sox players are, not surprisingly, the best updated and best maintained.

Why let ourselves fall behind in the wikipedia race?

In the past few days, I've been spending a lot of time (perhaps too much time--and yes, I swear I have a life!) trying to update the pages of Angels players. But I can't do it alone.

Not to sound like an adopt-a-child commercial, but there are two ways you can help out:

1. Post more information onto the relevant pages. Many of you know far more about the Angels and baseball generally than I do, and that knowledge could be shared with, you know, all of humanity.
2. If you're not familiar with wikipedia, its image policy is pretty stringent--any photos possessing a copyright are frowned on. If you have any good photos of players that you've taken yourself, by all means, upload them so that the pages are more than just text on a page.

Imagine: you log onto wikipedia, look at the page for Mariano Rivera, admire it a bit, then log onto the page for Frankie. It blows Mo's away. It has a picture of him jubilant after a save. Aside from customary stats, it has personal information and fun trivia information like what his entrance song is.

This may sound a bit nerdy, but we're all on an Angels blog, so I suppose nerdiness comes with the territory. This is the entry for Joe Saunders--I was working on updating it during tonight's game. Prior to that, it had no information other than his birth date and that he was a pitcher for the Angels. This is what it looks like now:

Joe Saunders

Note: I know that the current image there looks pretty spiffy, but most of the photos I uploaded are property of the AP, and the wikipedia powers-that-be frowned on their placement and have scheduled them for deletion.

So, I think it would be great if a community effort could be begun to give the team the attention it is due not only here and on our TV sets, but on wikipedia as well.

In tonight's victory thread, talk about the lack of a "horrible" team in the AL West and the attractiveness of an expansion to level the playing field made me think--where would the best place be for a theoretical expansion team be?

I admit that I know nothing about this and am not terribly aware of any rumors on the subject, so I'm trying to inform myself (and everyone else, too!)

Las Vegas was mentioned in the aforementioned thread and that seems like a good place to me. The population in the area is booming rapidly and could provide a suitable market for an MLB team.

Poll

Where to put an expansion?

1%

Hawaii or Alaska (the travel time would suck)

1 votes

2%

California (The Fresno Tractors)

2 votes

65%

Las Vegas

52 votes

20%

Portland

16 votes

0%

New Mexico

0 votes

0%

Arizona while avoiding the awkward implications of the "Arizona" Diamondbacks

0 votes

5%

One of the Great Plains States

4 votes

1%

Move the Bees and give Salt Lake an major league team

1 votes

3%

Give Texas another team

3 votes

79 votes | Poll has closed

Thanks to Oaky Choky giving up a bases-loaded situation to a double play, the Angels are alone in first place for the first time since late April (as Phys mentioned about one hundred times during tonight's broadcast).

For the visual learners out there:
                             

Thank you Oakland, it feels great.