SBNation.com User Blog: carpengui

Braves Fielding Efficiency

carpengui — Tue, 21 May 2013 18:23:21 -0000

Well, y'all haven't run me out yet, so it's time for another installment of team efficiency posts. This one, however, needs to be a little different, and that's for several reasons:

1. While I personally do subscribe to this era of advanced stats - including fielding stats - the pitching staff of a team is going to go a long way toward helping or hurting your defensive scores... often from one batter to the next. One would hope that these things would even out over time, but the fact is, there's a big difference between hitting line drives, weak grounders and lazy fly balls.

2. A fielder's individual defensive positioning can be influenced significantly by whether your own team has the philosophy of "shifting" players severely or not. Fielders might be personally inclined to 'cheat' a particular direction depending on the perceived strength of the position player adjacent to you. He might also be one to steal his own catcher's signs and thus be guessing on the direction of his first step. All of these things could either help (if good at the process) or hinder one's own fielding scores.

3. I appreciate the fact that defensive ratings are based on someone putting 'eyes on' a play and making a call as to whether a hit is a liner or a fly, a ball in a given zone or not, a routine play or an extraordinary play. These calls matter in the evaluations. However, they are are subjective by nature... they are indeed based on someone's opinion, and thus there are borderline calls that will be made one way or another. Because of this, there can be arguments in the same manner that we can argue about ball/strike calls.

4. Finally, it is difficult to evaluate a team's fielding prowess simply because players are so different. You can throw stats out there (and I will), but frankly, when you have gems like Andrelton Simmons out there in the midst of .... well, the entire rest of the infield..., then there's got to be some serious context included when you are giving these numbers.

But... we have what we have. So let's see about all that. Sorry that this is quite long.

>>> All of this data is gleaned from fangraphs.com. I can't tell you just how valuable this site is to fans. <<<

Team Fielding Rating by UZR/150 - the overarching WAR-equivalent number for fielding:

1. KC Royals - 12.8
2. DBacks - 12.2
3. Rangers - 7.5
8th - Atlanta - 4.4

Bringing up the rear: The Mets (-9.5) and the Astros (-10.3). Uggggly.

Total Errors Committed:

1. DBacks - 13
2. Orioles - 14
3. Cards - 16
18th - Atlanta - 21. Yes, this could be a little better. There are three guys propping that number up.

ErrR - Runs above/below average based on errors committed (in other words: how much do those errors hurt you?):

1. DBacks - 6.1
2. Tigers (!) - 4.4
3. Cards - 4.4
7th - Atlanta - 2.8

Notable bottom dwellers:
23rd: Royals (despite their UZR ranking). -2.8
26th: Blue Jays (they can't pitch or catch). -3.2
28th: A's. -5.5
30th: Nationals. -6.7. That explains a lot.

RangeRuns (RngR) - same concept, but this involves your ability to make plays on the balls in your range vs. runs allowed.

1. Giants 18.1. Note that they were 24th in that previous list.
2. Rangers 10.8
3. Rays 10.6
9. Atlanta - 6.6
Worst: Mets/Astros/Twinkies

I'm calling this "well balanced" between those last two categories. The DBacks excel at both metrics, but ATL is certainly holding its own here, a fact I give some credit to the pitchers for, as well.

Total Putouts... I would have thought this wasn't worth mentioning, since you figure that just about everybody would have the same number. Not so, however... this is actually kinda odd:

#1. Athletics: 1245 (terrible UZR numbers)
#2. DBacks: 1243 (second overall with UZR)
#30. Royals: 1085 (1st on the UZR board.... but 160 fewer POs than the A's???).
(OH, and ATL is 19th... whatever)

Total Assists - how well do you handle the baseball?

1. Rockies: 507
2. Let's Go Pie-rates: 490
3. Cards: 485
4. Astros: 479
6th - Atlanta - 474
Fewest: A's 402/Royals 399/Indians 384

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Okay, let's go for something a bit more personal: a positional breakdown

OUTFIELD UZR/150: I thought we'd do better here... but I think you'll see why we don't later on.

1. DBacks (18.2)
2. Brewers (13.3)
3. Indians (13.2)
7. Braves (8.0)
Worst: Mets/Twins/Astros (I sense a theme here)

OUTFIELD ASSISTS: Braves are 27th (only 4). The Twins are #1 (15), mostly thanks to Hicks and Parmalee.

DBacks are second (I'm getting real tired of putting them on these charts... apparently they field well everywhere), but don't run on the Twins (okay, we did last night, and lived to tell the tale), Brewers, Royals (Frenchy), and Marlins.

OUTFIELD ERRORS: Braves are 26th with 5... but Justin has four of these (no surprise, really, but this is what's dragging the numbers). The Twins are best with only one OF error (tied w/Rays/Indians).

OUTFIELD RngR: This involves avg. runs saved/allowed on balls in an outfielder's range. Think "gap-fillers". Braves 4th best.
OUTFIELD RZR% (percentage of plays made within the typical range): Braves are 5th (94.1%, and within shouting distance of the DBacks' #1 position at 95.0%).
The worst? Cards/Twins/Brewers... significantly worse, in fact. You can figure that these teams give up a lot of doubles, especially on line drives.

OUTFIELD ErrR: Braves 25th... yeah, that one's on Justin.

OUTFIELD OOZ (Out-of-zone plays made): Now seeing the previous stat, I would have expected this one to be pretty good. But it's not "top five" as I would have expected. Atlanta ranks 15th, with 79 such plays. #1 is Oakland (103), followed by MILW (100). But this is also based on the available opportunities - and I don't have a metric to gauge success in these attempts. Frankly, I'd hope for fewer opportunities!

OUTFIELD ARM: this involves ability to throw out and/or hold runners from the outfield.
While the Braves can 'go get it', the runners are still advancing. This would probably be
even worse if (for instance) Gattis hadn't nailed Phillips at the plate from LF.
But... we are 15th on that chart.

Overall: Justin needs to make sure of his plays, and the outfielders could probably do well in getting the ball back in as quickly as possible. However, I do recall a bunch of Warning Track Power fly balls... and nobody can keep runners from advancing on those.

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INFIELD EFFICIENCY:

FIRST BASE.

This is mostly on Freddie, of course, but please realize that UZR is not his friend. Freddie is content to play his area, and play it well. Unfortunately, that generally means that he doesn't venture far from the first base bag, since... okay, so he has the range of a parked car. As a consequence, he has a UZR/150 so far (note that he was out for 2 weeks) of -11.3. You might cry "SSS" on this, but it does track with his history, so just stop it. Lateral motion just isn't his thang.

Freddie does have just two errors so far - that's under his 12 for 2012, though pacing higher than the 6 from 2011.

Scoops: Fangraphs tracks "scoops" for first basemen. We like how Freddie does this. But one criteria, of course, is that his teammates have to "help" him with bad throws. Freddie has 14 scoops this year (Johnson 2, Gattis 1). That's 10th overall. The team leader is the DBacks with 27 (have a season, Paul Goldschmidt!). But as I say, I think we can credit this tenth position to better throws from the left side of the diamond... not by anything Freddie is or isn't doing.

SECOND BASE.

You would expect this to be pretty Uggly. Yes... yes, it is. I won't dwell on this for long.

Of the team's 21 overall errors, Dan has six of them. The team 2B UZR is -11. Uggla himself is actually slightly better, at -9.8. This is kind of important, since we do have some pitchers that thrive on ground balls... and the second base position has amassed 123 assists - tied for 15th position in the majors... only 8 assists below the top ten. Worst? Dodgers at a scant 85. Best? Astros at 153. Go figure.

Out of zone plays: tied for fourth worst - only 7. SEA is #1 here with 24. Yes, we know Dan has the range of a Chevy Volt.

SHORTSTOP.

Here's the good stuff. UZR may hate Freeman, but it loves Simmons. But his 21.8 rating is actually not #1(!). That honor goes to Elvis Andrus, with 24.3. In team numbers, the Rangers are at 23.5 with Atlanta second (19.4). The DBacks are a distant third (13.4), but with Didi now roaming the area for them, that number is actually trending downward, believe it or not.

More Simmons-Fu:

Defensive Runs saved: 12. Not only is this first in the majors, it's DOUBLE the 2nd place guy (Andrus).
Out of zone plays: 17. Okay, he's 15th here. That may also be partly because there are two Uptons behind him.
%Plays made in zone: .872 (4th)
Errors: ZERO (No other qualified SS in the majors can say this). He makes the plays.

The only knock is in the Double Play Runs metric - basically turning the DP vs. Runs allowed. On that, the Braves are decidedly average: -0.1, good for 16th place. Whatever.

THIRD BASE:

This surprised me. In a good way. Our two-headed hot-sacker (Juan Juanson) ranks 7th in UZR/150 with a 2.4. #1 is the Orioles (Machado, 8.5). Dodgers #2 (cast of several; 8.1). Okay, so there is a big drop off to #7, but they aren't being total butchers out there, committing only 4 errors combined in the process.

I suppose the biggest surprise (no, I don't mean Juan) is the 18 out-of-zone plays made. This ties 3 other teams for second place overall so far. I suppose I should do a shout out to Ramiro Pena at this point, since he is responsible for 3 of those plays, plus has contributed to the positive 3B UZR number.

But overall, that tandem (or trio, perhaps) has combined to make 79.4% of the expected plays - good enough for third place in the majors, despite Juan's 3 errors in 190 innings. Whew... though this could be pretty bad, but they are actually doing better than Chipper's 2012.

CATCHERS:

Catchers get different metrics from everyone else. And these numbers are definitely gonna change as we go along, because as of this morning, Gattis has 190 innings, Laird 113, and McCann 86 and counting.

But combined, there's only 1 error for all of them. That's actually pretty shocking. Eight other teams match this, and only one (the Pirates) beats it. Given our concerns about Gattis' on defense to start the year, this fact alone has to be one of the best surprises of the season thus far.

More catcher rankings:
Passed Balls. Another surprise. ONE. Ties for 3rd with four other teams.
Stolen Bases. ATL ranks 11th in fewest allowed (20). #1 is Baltimore with 10.
Caught Stealing %. Nine runners have been caught in the act (tie for 13th). However, they are 9th in CS% (31% of attempts foiled). Do not run on the Orioles (54.5%), Dodgers, Marlins, Yankees, or Twins. All ~40%+.

Finally, I don't really know how you measure Defensive Runs Saved for a catcher, but ATL ranks in a tie for 1st with 4... there have been a bunch of guys thrown out at home... that's good too, I suppose!

PITCHERS:

Real quick: Braves' hurlers are tied for 4th in fielding assists, average in stolen base/runs allowed, and 7th (tie) in defensive runs saved. They are athletic enough to handle their position, and it does show.

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Given the nature of this team' offense, I don't think there's a case to be made for trying to upgrade any position defensively. For Atlanta, second base clearly has the worst fielding, but let's put this into context: the worst thing caused here is that the pitchers have to work a little harder... but only about twice a week whenever Dan kicks one, or allows a hit that someone else would have reached. But for certain, the outfield is able to cut off a lot of hits, and Simmons shortens innings. These are good things.

>>> All of this data is gleaned from fangraphs.com. I can't tell you just how valuable this site is to fans. <<<

Total Errors Committed:

1. DBacks - 13
2. Orioles - 14
3. Cards - 16
18th - Atlanta - 21. Yes, this could be a little better. There are three guys propping that number up.

Total Assists - how well do you handle the baseball?

1. Rockies: 507
2. Let's Go Pie-rates: 490
3. Cards: 485
4. Astros: 479
6th - Atlanta - 474
Fewest: A's 402/Royals 399/Indians 384

OUTFIELD ASSISTS: Braves are 27th (only 4). The Twins are #1 (15), mostly thanks to Hicks and Parmalee.

OUTFIELD ErrR: Braves 25th... yeah, that one's on Justin.

SECOND BASE.

You would expect this to be pretty Uggly. Yes... yes, it is. I won't dwell on this for long.

Out of zone plays: tied for fourth worst - only 7. SEA is #1 here with 24. Yes, we know Dan has the range of a Chevy Volt.

Braves Hitting Efficiency

carpengui — Fri, 10 May 2013 15:53:53 -0000

Having discussed the pitching prowess of the Braves' staff yesterday - and because it's a slow day in the office - I decided to see if I could construct an equivalent review for the hitters. This was much harder to do.

Right away, I'm hit with the thought that this will probably be a skewed portrait, for multiple reasons:

Jason was doing horribly for a month... and now is DL'd
BJ is still doing horribly.
Brian McCann is just now getting back

Nonetheless, it's still the overall picture that I'm looking for, so here goes. Please note that for all of this data, I have chosen to exclude pitchers from the equation. Oddly enough, that might actually hurt the Braves in certain stats, but I do think it's more fair to do so.

A. How is this team doing in terms of scoring runs? There's a lot of ways to measure this, and I have a mixed bag of answers as a result:

A1: Ranking of wRC+ (avg/normalized Runs Created): Braves are 3rd (113) to the Indians (123) and Rockies (114)
A2: Ranking of Runs Scored per game: 10th at 4.4, just ahead of a bunch of teams.
A3: Ranking of Home Runs per game: yeah, still 1st (1.38; Rockies/Jays 2nd at 1.32)
A4: Ranking of RBI per Plate Appearance: 8th place (12% of Braves' PA's result in an RBI)

B. How are they in terms of creating run-scoring opportunities?

B1: wOBA: 5th (.336)
B2: raw OBA: 11th (.330)
B3: Walk%: 3rd (9.7% - MUCH better than I'd guessed; behind A's/11% and Reds/10.5%)
B4: KO%: 29th (24.0% - I hear the sound of a dead horse being beaten)
B5: Stolen Bases: 23rd (14 - highest is 27; lowest is 10)
B6: Team OPS: 6th (.771). ROX .827 lead; CLE/BOS/DET/MIL

C. How are the Braves doing with hitting in general? Once again: lots of measuring sticks are available.

C1: Team Batt Avg: 17th (.252). You really have to look at Heyward, BJ, and Uggla for this.
C2: Team ISO power: 3rd (.188). Barely behind the Rockies; Indians are #1 (.204).
C3: Team Slugging: 5th (.440). Indians/Rockies #1 (.475), then BOS, MIL.
C4: Team BABIP: 9th (.301). Would seem a little low, but lots of variables here. Astros(!) #1 w/.329.
C5: Line Drive%: 13th highest (20.1%)
C6: Ground Ball%: 26th highest (42.3%). I guess this is good?
C7: Fly Ball%: 7th highest (37.5%). Homers are fly ball, right?
C8: Infield Fly%*: 8th highest (10.7%). That one's not so good. Angels best (5.4%); Marlins (13%) worst.

* Sam Holbrook was not consulted for this stat.

D. What about plate discipline? Here we find some interesting stuff.

D1: Walks/K Ratio: 19th (40%). Best are OAK/LAD (57%); worst is HOU (25%)
D2: Total Pitches seen per PA: 25th worst (3.78). #1 is Mets (4.08); worst is Giants (3.69),
so there's actually less than a half-a-pitch-per-plate-appearance spread in the data.
D3: Balls recieved per PA: 17th (1.42). Data spread is from 1.57 to 1.32. Meh.
D4: Strikes received per PA: Oddly, this rank is 2nd fewest (2.36). But then, #30 has only 2.55, so who cares?
D5: Swing% at non-strikes: 14th (29.5%). Best is Rays (23.8%); worst is LAA (33%; Josh Hamilton is at 42%).
D6: Swing% at strikes: 6th (66.7%). #1 is STL (69%). Worst is SEA (60.7%). Yes, you want to swing at strikes.
D7: Contact with non-strikes: 28th (61.2%). Best is KCR (72.1%); worst HOU (57%).
Let's combine this with D5 above. ~30% of the time, Braves will swing at pitches out
of the strike zone. They will then whiff on almost 40% of those pitches. But keep reading...

D8: Contact% with balls that are strikes: 30th. This seems like a true red flag: 81.7%. Best SFG (90%).
The Braves would have to improve this figure by 5% just to get into a normal range.
Stated another way, there's a whiff on almost 20% of strikes swung at.

D9: Contact% on any swing: Once again, this is poor: 29th (74.5%)... and that leads to this one...
D10: Swing-and-miss %: 29th place. Braves whiff on 11.5% of all pitches seen...including the ones not swung at.
>> Reminder: the team ranks 3rd in walks taken; 2nd in total strikeouts.

In general, this team looks like they can't seem to hit what they choose to swing at (when compared to other teams). When they do square one up - yeah, it is driven. But maybe I'll dig a little deeper - later - to see if perhaps there's more to this about swings and pitch selection.

E. Finally: What about WAR (Wins above Replacement)?

When you add it all up, Atlanta ranks 3rd in total fWAR, tied with the Giants at 6.8. The Indians (8.2) and Red Sox (7.3) lead the way. You have to say that's pretty good, though I do believe there's still great room for improvement.

Jason was doing horribly for a month... and now is DL'd
BJ is still doing horribly.
Brian McCann is just now getting back

Braves Pitching Efficiency

carpengui — Thu, 09 May 2013 15:07:05 -0000

This post was spurred from a tweet sent by Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLBTR (though it sounds like he dusted off his old fangraphs hat for this one) in which he pointed out that the pitching staff of the Toronto Blue Jays is worst in baseballs heaved, having already thrown over 1,000 more pitches this year than the Royals (and so have the Astros, but it raises eyebrows when it's a team that was actually supposed to be good). That's roughly 30 more pitches per game than the Royals are getting away with.

Naturally, I didn't stop here. I wanted more.

Turns out Toronto is also the worst in strike efficiency: 61.54% of those pitches are strikes... which may account for the staff being required to throw more often.

Okay, great, but this is a Braves blog... so how is Atlanta doing? Turns out pretty darn well.

Pitch count is one thing, but pitches per inning (PPI) is a better measure of efficiency. Here's the top three teams:

Seattle: 15.61 PPI
Cincinnati: 15.66
Atlanta: 15.67

3rd best in baseball - for comparison, the three worst are Houston (17.65 - yeah, 2 pitches per inning worse), Boston (17.16), and yes, the Blue Jays (16.93). The National League tends to do better here - likely due to the DH - but not exclusively so, since we see the Mariners in the #1 position.

Strike Efficiency: just how often does a team throw strikes (ratio of strikes to all pitches thrown)?

St. Louis: 65.34% (4% better than last place Toronto)
Atlanta: 64.95%
Detroit: 64.71% (Cincy is a close 4th)

Detroit's position on this list may be influenced by their schedule, having already seen both the Braves and Astros (strikeouts on a 2-for-1 sale), but we'll let that go for now.

Walk Efficiency: Walks per 9 innings pitched

Twins: 2.40
Brewers: 2.42
Mariners: 2.46
Yankees 5th, Reds 6th, Braves 7th (2.59)

If you're throwing strikes more often, you'd expect fewer walks, and that's true here. The Braves have a staff that has solid control. Worst in baseball? Pirates (3.96), Red Sox and Astros (3.93).

Team WHIP: (Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched):

Atlanta (1.17)
Detroit (1.18)
Cincinnati (1.19). I imagine that this one just went up a couple of ticks. :D

But wait, there's more: LOB% (percentage of runners Left stranded On Base):

Atlanta (78.4%). This represents a really large lead. Good since the team is actually in the middle of the pack in team fielding (despite Simmons' heroics)
Texas (77.2%)
Arizona (77.1%)

The Braves' staff is also 3rd in team ERA (3.29, behind St. Louis (3.10) and Texas (3.22). This despite being in the middle of the pack in GB/FB ratio (yes, we have some fly ball pitchers, but they're more-or-less still keeping the ball in the park).

Friday 5/10 Add-on: This is something I simply forgot to add, and Mark Bowman reminded me in one of his blog pieces. The ultimate efficiency, in my view, is seen in how much work the bullpen is required to undertake. The answer, thus far, is agreeably little.

Fewest Reliever Innings Pitched:

KC Royals - 81.1
ST Louis, Tampa Bay (tie) - 84.0
Chi Cubs (surprise) - 90.2
Atlanta - 92.2 (Nats, Phils, Rangers, ChiSox all close behind)

The worst team so far? Yeah - Houston (139.0 innings), followed by the Blue Jays and Rockies... with sizable gaps in between.

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Oh, and in terms of that total pitch count thing: Atlanta is 3rd best in baseball. These guys are doing pretty well, and clearly keeping the team in almost every game.

Naturally, I didn't stop here. I wanted more.

Turns out Toronto is also the worst in strike efficiency: 61.54% of those pitches are strikes... which may account for the staff being required to throw more often.

Okay, great, but this is a Braves blog... so how is Atlanta doing? Turns out pretty darn well.

Pitch count is one thing, but pitches per inning (PPI) is a better measure of efficiency. Here's the top three teams:

Seattle: 15.61 PPI
Cincinnati: 15.66
Atlanta: 15.67

Strike Efficiency: just how often does a team throw strikes (ratio of strikes to all pitches thrown)?

St. Louis: 65.34% (4% better than last place Toronto)
Atlanta: 64.95%
Detroit: 64.71% (Cincy is a close 4th)

Detroit's position on this list may be influenced by their schedule, having already seen both the Braves and Astros (strikeouts on a 2-for-1 sale), but we'll let that go for now.

Walk Efficiency: Walks per 9 innings pitched

Twins: 2.40
Brewers: 2.42
Mariners: 2.46
Yankees 5th, Reds 6th, Braves 7th (2.59)

If you're throwing strikes more often, you'd expect fewer walks, and that's true here. The Braves have a staff that has solid control. Worst in baseball? Pirates (3.96), Red Sox and Astros (3.93).

Team WHIP: (Walks+Hits per Inning Pitched):

Atlanta (1.17)
Detroit (1.18)
Cincinnati (1.19). I imagine that this one just went up a couple of ticks. :D

But wait, there's more: LOB% (percentage of runners Left stranded On Base):

Atlanta (78.4%). This represents a really large lead. Good since the team is actually in the middle of the pack in team fielding (despite Simmons' heroics)
Texas (77.2%)
Arizona (77.1%)

Fewest Reliever Innings Pitched:

KC Royals - 81.1
ST Louis, Tampa Bay (tie) - 84.0
Chi Cubs (surprise) - 90.2
Atlanta - 92.2 (Nats, Phils, Rangers, ChiSox all close behind)

The worst team so far? Yeah - Houston (139.0 innings), followed by the Blue Jays and Rockies... with sizable gaps in between.

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Oh, and in terms of that total pitch count thing: Atlanta is 3rd best in baseball. These guys are doing pretty well, and clearly keeping the team in almost every game.

Well, Frank Tried to Discuss Contract Extensions

carpengui — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 13:15:29 -0000

On an otherwise slow off day, Mark Bowman gleaned this nugget, reprinted from MLBTR (do we start saying "uh oh" at this point?):

Meanwhile, Bowman says the Braves were interested in locking up outfielder Jason Heyward and first baseman Freddie Freeman during the offseason. Despite the team's efforts to initiate talks, however, they were rebuffed by the young stars. Heyward currently stands to reach free agency in 2016, with Freeman following him in 2017.

On an otherwise slow off day, Mark Bowman gleaned this nugget, reprinted from MLBTR (do we start saying "uh oh" at this point?):

Meanwhile, Bowman says the Braves were interested in locking up outfielder Jason Heyward and first baseman Freddie Freeman during the offseason. Despite the team's efforts to initiate talks, however, they were rebuffed by the young stars. Heyward currently stands to reach free agency in 2016, with Freeman following him in 2017.

Emergency Gamethread: Spring Training Game 26: Pirates vs. Braves (Mar 20)

carpengui — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 17:32:42 -0000

Mark Bowman ‏@mlbbowman

Five of the Braves first six hitters have recorded a hit today. No, Rodrigo Lopez did not stick around to start this game too.

It's a good start: Mike Minor mowed them down in the first inning, and the Braves bats haven't cooled off from the hammering made at the expense of the Phillies on Monday... though oddly enough, the only out made so far as I type this is from Justin Upton (he of the multi-homer game and 3-3 day on Monday).

That's enough... let's get to it: we're up (at least) 4-0.

Mark Bowman ‏@mlbbowman

Five of the Braves first six hitters have recorded a hit today. No, Rodrigo Lopez did not stick around to start this game too.

That's enough... let's get to it: we're up (at least) 4-0.

Chipper Suggests Brian McCann Should Consider a "Change of Scenery"

carpengui — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 16:14:31 -0000

"unfortunately, I think - maybe - Brian may have priced himself - you know - out of Atlanta at the end of the year...I really think (and I don't often say this) but I change a change of scenery for him might, might not be a bad thing. I think that, uh, um you know, uh a move to the American League where he can sometimes DH when he doesn't have to catch, um is gonna take some pressure off his knees, his shoulders, and aching body."

Radio Interview, Monday Feb 25, 9:20-25 ET on XM's MLB Channel with Mike Ferrin/Jim Duquette.

https://soundcloud.com/siriusxmsports/chipper-jones-discusses-the

How to Train Your Next Dragon-Slayer Hitter

carpengui — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 17:23:33 -0000

Okay, what you're about to read has been blatantly, willfully, and unrepentantly stolen from Viva El Birdos. Why? Because of the great stories and eeriely-similar developmental paths of Stan Musial, Roberto Clemente, Hank Aaron [ Happy Birthday, Hammer! ], and... the Next Big Thing: Oscar Taveras. Here's the story, with some emphasis added (original link on VivaElBirdos here) - and I'll just get out of the way... very interesting:

______________________________________________

"Stan Musial grew up in Donora, Pennsylvania, a town of about 7,500. It was a steel-mill town and Musial's father made his living in the mills. Musial and his friends didn't have baseball's growing up so Mrs. Musial made them. She wound a ball of yard and used black tape for the stitching. However, Musial wasn't always fortunate enough to play with a homemade baseball while growing up. As Musial discussed during a 2002 Hall-of-Fame interview, he and his brother would hit bottle caps.

"We had some bottle caps and broomsticks. Of course, my brother would pitch, ya know. With a bottle cap, you can make it move and curve and swing around and, of course, trying to hit that bottle cap is quite a feat."

"Roberto Clemente hailed from Carolina, Puerto Rico, just east of the capital San Juan. Like Musial, Clemente and his brothers did not have the opportunity to play with a real baseball. Like Musial and his brother, the Clemente brothers used bottle caps. As H.R. 4831, which renamed a Chicago post office for Clemente, recounts:

"Cane sugar workers in Puerto Rico lived a very humble life and a life of poverty. Roberto began playing baseball like many of his contemporaries did, doing batting practice with a broken broomstick hitting bottle caps. He said that, after swinging hundreds of times at bottle caps, a baseball looked as big as a coconut."

"Henry Aaron was born in Mobile, Alabama and grew up in a poor part of the greater metro area. The excellent SABR biography on Aaron by Bill Johnson explains:

"Henry was born, and the Aarons lived, in a poorer neighborhood of Mobile called "Down the Bay," but he spent most of his formative years in the nearby district of Toulminville. The Aaron family lived on the edge of poverty, in part due to the general economic conditions of the Great Depression, so every member of the family worked to contribute. Young Henry picked cotton, among other odd jobs, and while his parents could not afford proper baseball equipment for recreation, Aaron was able to practice in endless sandlot games and by hitting bottle caps with ordinary broom handles and sticks."

"Oscar Taveras hails from Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic. Last spring, a profile on Taveras penned by Derrick Goold ran in St. Louis Post-Dispatch. A passage chronicles Taveras' childhood baseball activities:"

"As a kid, Taveras would play a game that involved taking the cap off water jugs and trying to hit it when it was pitched like a tightly spinning and veering Frisbee. His dad, who played pro ball, could pitch corn kernels to him. They fastened a tire to a fench. and Taveras whaled away on it to hone and strengthen his swing. Sometimes he'd use a tee, moving the location of the ball around to improve his plate coverage."

______________________________________________

"We had some bottle caps and broomsticks. Of course, my brother would pitch, ya know. With a bottle cap, you can make it move and curve and swing around and, of course, trying to hit that bottle cap is quite a feat."

"Cane sugar workers in Puerto Rico lived a very humble life and a life of poverty. Roberto began playing baseball like many of his contemporaries did, doing batting practice with a broken broomstick hitting bottle caps. He said that, after swinging hundreds of times at bottle caps, a baseball looked as big as a coconut."

"Henry Aaron was born in Mobile, Alabama and grew up in a poor part of the greater metro area. The excellent SABR biography on Aaron by Bill Johnson explains:

"Henry was born, and the Aarons lived, in a poorer neighborhood of Mobile called "Down the Bay," but he spent most of his formative years in the nearby district of Toulminville. The Aaron family lived on the edge of poverty, in part due to the general economic conditions of the Great Depression, so every member of the family worked to contribute. Young Henry picked cotton, among other odd jobs, and while his parents could not afford proper baseball equipment for recreation, Aaron was able to practice in endless sandlot games and by hitting bottle caps with ordinary broom handles and sticks."

"As a kid, Taveras would play a game that involved taking the cap off water jugs and trying to hit it when it was pitched like a tightly spinning and veering Frisbee. His dad, who played pro ball, could pitch corn kernels to him. They fastened a tire to a fench. and Taveras whaled away on it to hone and strengthen his swing. Sometimes he'd use a tee, moving the location of the ball around to improve his plate coverage."

Post-Up Moves: Rosterbation from a Position of Strength

carpengui — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 15:59:48 -0000

photo via lakers.topbuzz.com

So....just checking in... Anything interesting happen last week?

We are now in the 'Post-Up' era - the week after one of the biggest trades in Atlanta Braves history, which follows one the the biggest free agent signings in Atlanta Braves history: the acquisition of the Upton Brothers Baseball Wrecking Co. So where does the team stand at this point and where do we go from here as the bags are packed for the trip to Orlando?

Points to ponder:

1. Among others, the Phillies have now added Ben Revere, Delmon Young, Michael Young, and Chad Durbin in recent weeks. *chortle*

2. Meanwhile, the Braves added BJ Upton, Justin Upton and Jordan Walden. However, we have also parted ways with fan-favorite Martin Prado, and Tommy Hanson. Then there was also this Jones guy, who's now off in the woods shootin' some sort of critter.

3. On the other hand, while the Nationals traded away Michael Morse, they added Denard Span, Rafael Soriano and Dan Haren. Oh, and that Strasburg kid will be back for a full season. You'd have to say they did pretty well this off-season, too.

I won't even bother with the Marlins or Mets... even if the Mets do give in and sign Michael Bourn, as I expect.

Another point for discussion is the team budget. Here is my own breakdown of where we stand there... with explanations to follow:

(Updated Tuesday AM, Jan 29)

(if you have trouble reading this graphic, you can embiggen it by following this link)

The Disclaimers:

1. We ~~still don't~~ think we know the terms for Cristhian Martinez.... it is still subject to confirmation from the Braves.

2. Salary figures in bold type are those I'm reasonably confident of. Those not emboldened are estimated, as the pre-arb players have not been handed their deals yet. Regardless, I expect they're pretty close to reality... Kimbrel, Beachy, and Freeman being the biggest sources of error. Pena's is also estimated.

3. B. J. Upton's bonus is included in 2013 - not spread out over the life of the contract. Why? Because it's already been paid.

4. You'll notice 29 names on this list. Honestly, it doesn't matter too much what names are there (so don't get too exercised just because Evan Gattis' name is there). For the purposes of this spreadsheet, somebody's name will be there - and it will result in a major league minimum salary being paid to somebody.

5. But...but... there should still only be 25 names at a time on the list! Kinda. Beachy will be paid to not play for a while. Janish too, until he's ready to go. Gattis is there as backup to Laird... until McCann is ready (I'm not sure if he will be DL'd, by the way - so that's why I didn't give his name an asterisk). Probably somebody else will get hurt... so that's why I threw 29 names on the list.

6. Do the Braves have 'salary insurance' available for guys like Beachy? I read something last year suggesting that most clubs have insurance on most of their players. That said, I have to wonder if that's still the case with guys making the ML minimum, as Beach was doing in 2012. It might be fairly expensive relative to the benefits. Guys like the Uptons? Yeah - you would insure those salaries for certain. But if anyone can speak better to than issue, then I'm all ears.

6. Okay, so this means you're over-estimating the payroll. Quite possibly... and in fact, I kinda hope so. If you wish to quibble about that, I'm okay with it. But in any case, I believe that the notion of "we still have $10m to spend" is probably a bit high. If they indeed are pushing payroll to $98 million, then I have us at $92,637,250 - with between $5m and $5.5m remaining... which is still pretty good, and allows a lot of flexibility for the trade deadline, as needed.

I would also be remiss if I neglected to wish Fredi Gonzalez a Happy Birthday today... gotta tip your cap to the manager of your favorite team.

So with all of that and about two weeks until pitchers and catcher report, let's get to it - beginning with a Poll...

photo via lakers.topbuzz.com

So....just checking in... Anything interesting happen last week?

Points to ponder:

1. Among others, the Phillies have now added Ben Revere, Delmon Young, Michael Young, and Chad Durbin in recent weeks. *chortle*

I won't even bother with the Marlins or Mets... even if the Mets do give in and sign Michael Bourn, as I expect.

Another point for discussion is the team budget. Here is my own breakdown of where we stand there... with explanations to follow:

(Updated Tuesday AM, Jan 29)

(if you have trouble reading this graphic, you can embiggen it by following this link)

The Disclaimers:

1. We ~~still don't~~ think we know the terms for Cristhian Martinez.... it is still subject to confirmation from the Braves.

3. B. J. Upton's bonus is included in 2013 - not spread out over the life of the contract. Why? Because it's already been paid.

I would also be remiss if I neglected to wish Fredi Gonzalez a Happy Birthday today... gotta tip your cap to the manager of your favorite team.

So with all of that and about two weeks until pitchers and catcher report, let's get to it - beginning with a Poll...

Poll

The Atlanta Braves won 94 games in 2012, good for 4th-best in baseball. As constructed today, how many wins do you think this team gets in 2013?

Less than 81 (finishing below .500)

0 votes

81-85

2 votes

86-90

11 votes

91-95

159 votes

96-100

146 votes

100+

18 votes

336 votes | Poll has closed

To Have or To Hold: A Brief Review of Atlanta Braves' Prospects

carpengui — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 20:49:37 -0000

What is the value of a prospect? How tightly should a team hold its best up-and-coming assets? How certain can I be that a prospect will "make it" as a major leaguer?

These question are darned near impossible to answer - and this post won't succeed in doing that, either. The best we can do is to examine the trends of history in the hopes of providing some guidance.

I have cataloged the lists of Braves top-10 prospects as selected by Baseball America over the years 1995 through 2012.. the eighteen seasons since and including the World Series winning year of 1995 (exception: I could not locate the full 1998 list). A cap tip to thebaseballcube.com for the original information that made this possible. Baseball America's listing were chosen for two reasons:

The existence of the data
The consistency of the selections from year-to-year

Evaluation: In each case, I tried to make a call on the success level of each player, according to these criteria:

Top level: Hall of Fame level player
2nd Level: All Star game participant
3rd level: Established Major Leaguer
4th level: minor Major League career; not a household name; not consistently a starter; bench guy.
5th level: AAA/AAAA player. Might have touched the majors, or seen just a few games
6th level: "Bust" - did not progress beyond AA level.

Pitchers and position players have been separated; due to incomplete information, current/recent prospects and those players with current major league experience of 1-2 years are omitted from the overall tabulations, and placed into their own "Too Soon to Evaluate" category.

That's the general rule, but I will make a subjective exception or two... Freddie Freeman, for instance. We clearly expect him to be a major contributor in 2013, so I am going to call him a 3rd level player. Brandon Beachy, however, I will omit and label as "Too Soon"... and this is because his experience thus far is limited, and there exists the possibility - however slight - that his career never picks back up. We do have a couple of pitchers in our prospect history that unfortunately fell into that category. Likewise, Andrelton Simmons is still too new to evaluate.

Examples of players in each category:

1st level: Chipper
2nd Level: Craig Kimbrel, Jermaine Dye, Jason Schmidt
3rd level: Adam LaRoche, Bruce Chen, Mike Minor
4th level: Andy Marte, Jo-Jo Reyes
5th level: Anthony Lerew, Ron Wright* (see below)
6th level: Eric Campbell, Junior Brignac
Too soon to evaluate: Gorkys Hernandez, Adam Milligan, Simmons, Julio Teheran

I am not identifying a distinction between players who 'made it' with the Braves club specifically, because this is more about the success of prospects, and not about the organization. That, and I don't wish to get sidetracked on the topic of bad trade memories. We've done that cathartic cleansing numerous times. But what we'd hope is that all prospects reach level 3 or better when we check their careers in the rear-view mirror.

There are several players that I was on the fence about... and Jordan Shafer is the poster child for all of them. I could justify putting him in any of level 4, level 5, or even the "too soon" group. The fact that he started for Houston all of 2012 doesn't actually help him, IMHO, for he likely would not have started for many other clubs. Plus, he's still playing, but has been 'close' to breaking through since way back in 2008 - when he was our #1 prospect. In the end, he was put into level 5.

* Ron Wright is worthy of a specific mention. In 1996, he was 6th on the prospect list for Atlanta. He toiled through 11 minor league seasons, including 4 at AA and 6 at AAA with multiple organizations, averaging a .263/.344/.471 slash line. But he did experience one game in the majors - with the Seattle Mariners - April 14th, 2002.

Let's just say that he wasn't exactly able to make the most of the opportunity. Ron went 0-3, and actually accounted for six outs in the process... one K, one GIDP, and one GITP... yes, a triple play. His career major league OPS+? -100. So back to Tacoma, where he hit .273 that year.

So with that an an introduction, here's the stats I've been able to glean from these 18 years of prospects.

General Tally:

18 years: 1995-2012
Distinct names: 92
Pitchers: 49
Position players: 43

via dl.dropbox.com

A sizable majority of these players reached the majors in their careers. A sizeable plurality (40%) of the position players became productive major leaguers, while that figure dropped to only 22% for the pitchers. I feel (Fredi-ism alert) that it is significant that nearly 39% of the pitchers failed to break through in the majors beyond a cup of coffee, and 61% failed to achieve "regular" status. I suppose this is why careful evaluation should be done when determining whether to keep or trade a pitching prospect.

Case in point? Adam Wainwright. Traded for J.D. Drew in a deal that kinda worked okay for both clubs (though Drew stayed only for one year with Atlanta). Wainwright was prospect #1 in 2003, and slipped to #3 in 2004 - the year of the trade. I recall hearing that he and Leo Mazzone were not seeing eye-to-eye about something, and there was fear that he might have plateaued. Apparently not.

Significantly, a number of those pitchers in those top categories are recent prospects - Minor, Medlen, Kimbrel, and Hanson... until these guys emerged, we'd had a bit of a dry spell since seeing guys like Jason Schmidt, Jason Marquis, and Bruce Chen. Clearly the organization changed their focus in recent years. The "Too Soon to Say" group looks promising as well, led by Beachy, Teheran, and Delgado... plus, neither Alex Wood nor J.R. Graham were on the BA/2012 list.

I recognize that there are problems like that with this data...it deals with people, which means that as one differs from all the rest, you cannot definitively say there are trends worth investing in. Some guys hit their ceiling and fell by the wayside based on talent. Others because of injury (Kevin McGlinchy, for example). Some perhaps due to talent around them while in other cases, the organization may not have been the best to showcase their abilities. It is certainly also possible that players were evaluated wrong, and should not have been on the top ten list in the first place. Small Sample Sizes are yet another issue.

For the most part, however, being in the top 3 or 4 for a given year is significant. But then there are players like Jordan Shafer or George Lombard who were 'sure things'... and haven't been.

It is for these kinds of reasons that I call "caveat emptor". You can differ with my slotting of these names in some cases, and moving a couple of names has the chance of skewing the percentages significantly... but that's part of the fun. Of course, I'm also not revealing all of my choices, either...you have to trust me that I used common sense :D. You can check the year-to-year rankings at the baseball cube link cited above.

It would make a better data set to do this for all 30 major league clubs, and also to extend the name pool to the top 20 prospects. But that requires much more time than I have, and I doubt I'll be offered the [paying] job to keep track of all that!

Let's hear your thoughts.

The existence of the data
The consistency of the selections from year-to-year

via dl.dropbox.com

For the most part, however, being in the top 3 or 4 for a given year is significant. But then there are players like Jordan Shafer or George Lombard who were 'sure things'... and haven't been.

Let's hear your thoughts.

Here is a link to a reference chart for the Braves' 2013 season schedule, including all spring...

carpengui — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 18:10:18 -0000

Here is a link to a reference chart for the Braves' 2013 season schedule, including all spring events and the WBC. Hope someone can find it to be useful. Click the link to embiggen.,

If there are typos (I'm gonna assume there might be a couple), then note in the comments - I'll correct them and replace the graphic at the same link.

Cheers, all!

Red Sox To Sign David Ross

carpengui — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 13:59:33 -0000

MLBTR Report.

By Mike Axisa [November 10 at 7:49am CST]
The Red Sox have agreed to sign catcher David Ross to a two-year contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The deal is still pending a physical. Ross is a Sports One Athlete Management.

Over the last four seasons, the 35-year-old Ross has established himself as the best hitting backup catcher in baseball. He hit .269/.353/.463 with the Braves during that time, including .256/.321/.449 with nine homers in 196 plate appearances this year. Thanks in part to the presence of Brian McCann, Ross has not come to the plate even 200 times in a single season since 2007.

This is not gonna be good news for Braves' fans to wake up to on a Saturday morning. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/red-sox-to-sign-david-ross.html

MLBTR Report.

By Mike Axisa [November 10 at 7:49am CST]
The Red Sox have agreed to sign catcher David Ross to a two-year contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The deal is still pending a physical. Ross is a Sports One Athlete Management.

Over the last four seasons, the 35-year-old Ross has established himself as the best hitting backup catcher in baseball. He hit .269/.353/.463 with the Braves during that time, including .256/.321/.449 with nine homers in 196 plate appearances this year. Thanks in part to the presence of Brian McCann, Ross has not come to the plate even 200 times in a single season since 2007.

This is not gonna be good news for Braves' fans to wake up to on a Saturday morning. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/red-sox-to-sign-david-ross.html

Jayson Stark votes Craig Kimbrel for NL Cy Award

carpengui — Tue, 02 Oct 2012 16:07:13 -0000

Jayson Stark votes Craig Kimbrel for NL Cy Award

Stark actually gets a real vote, so this is noteworthy. Congratulations on an awesome season for Craig.

Quick fun fact: 266 batters faced this year: 133 struck out. An unprecedented 50%.

MLB signs new TV deals (FOX, TBS, ESPN)

carpengui — Tue, 02 Oct 2012 15:48:21 -0000

MLB signs new TV deals (FOX, TBS, ESPN)

via MLB Public Relations (@MLB_PR) on twitter (the link above is actually not valid):

"NEWS: MLB signs new deals with FOX & TBS. Combined w/ ESPN deal, total national TV revenue up more than 100%"

"In new deal w/FOX starting in 2014, no more Saturday blackouts of out of market games for MLB EI & MLB.TV customers"

Best Pitcher in the Majors: Kristopher Beachy

carpengui — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 14:32:24 -0000

Allow me to introduce you to Kristopher Beachy. he doesn't get a lot of publicity (probably because he doesn't play for the Yankees), but he's actually the best pitcher in the majors this year - and it's not even that close.

Here's his picture, just so that he's a little more recognizable in the future:

When you check into his stats, Kris B's numbers are actually pretty awesome (since as we know, the W-L totals don't always tell the whole story):

22 Starts, 13-6 record. 198 innings, 170 K's (7.7 per nine), 50 BB (a nice ratio of 3.4:1), ERA 1.77 (best in the majors by 0.75 of a run!*). WHIP is 0.96 with a single hit batsman. Fangraphs gives KBeach a total WAR for the year of 6.3. Verlander is sitting at 6.0. King Felix 5.2. Gio 5.0 (last night didn't help).

* - among pitchers over 120 innings. There's some kid named Medlen with a 1.62, but he only has 117 innings. ...merely a pretender.

Kristopher Beachy is awesome.

Pitchers: build them up or rest them more?

carpengui — Fri, 10 Aug 2012 16:59:29 -0000

The motivation for this FanPost is this article from Jayson Stark, which he has just posted. I highly recommend the entire piece. The fascinating parts of it involve the studies now building about pitcher injuries. I had not heard of any of this previously.

There are generally two schools of thought out there about developing starting pitching (I'm gonna summarize liberally hear; clearly there are multiple variations on these themes):

The Old School Method, espoused by guys like Leo Mazzone and Nolan Ryan. Continue to build up the arm strength of young pitchers, lengthening their outings and improving their durability consistently. The goal is to have pitchers go as long as possible.
The Modern Method, which seems to be taking hold at all levels: limit pitch counts and innings of the youngsters until they have fully matured physically (maybe until around 25).

There are generally two schools of thought out there about developing starting pitching (I'm gonna summarize liberally hear; clearly there are multiple variations on these themes):

The Old School Method, espoused by guys like Leo Mazzone and Nolan Ryan. Continue to build up the arm strength of young pitchers, lengthening their outings and improving their durability consistently. The goal is to have pitchers go as long as possible.
The Modern Method, which seems to be taking hold at all levels: limit pitch counts and innings of the youngsters until they have fully matured physically (maybe until around 25).

This Stark piece is fairly shocking in terms of the evidence that is apparently building to advocate rest - both for young arms and for recovering arms. I mention this specifically because of the Braves' recent cases of surgery: Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy. In context, you could also probably apply this to Ben Sheets, though his is a special case due to the work-outs he has already put himself through in preparation for pitching this year. However, he's also had more extensive surgery, so you can draw your own conclusions about how his arm could hold up.

Beachy had surgery on June 21st. Given normal recovery times, he might be ready to pitch again after the 2013 All-Star Break. That's interesting, as he might only be able to get 100-120 innings in over the remainder of next year. All other factors notwithstanding, that schedule could be important for his long-term outlook, if you buy the sources Stark cites.

Medlen has been "slow-rolled" into innings this year. He's now at 64.2 innings, and could project to anywhere from 100 to 125 innings, depending on how he's used down the stretch. Once again, this workload would be consistent with the article's research.

There are pitchers who are "horses" and can log 230+ innings per year, everything. The problem is how to tell which guys are the stalwart Clydesdales and which are the delicate racehorses. One could also look at this data and say "gee, a six-man rotation might be a real good idea to protect these guys." Also possible.

With that, I yield the floor: what do you think about what Stark wrote and how would you advocate handling our prized pitching prospects?

"We’ve played this team three days in a row."

carpengui — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 13:27:03 -0000

"We’ve played this team three days in a row."

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/atlanta-braves-pitcher-ben-sheets-great-under-the-radar-acquisition-080212

The Anti-Hair Club For Men. Somebody - may have been fauxfrankwren - suggested yesterday that the...

carpengui — Wed, 01 Aug 2012 17:47:48 -0000

The Anti-Hair Club For Men.

Somebody - may have been fauxfrankwren - suggested yesterday that the arrival of Reed Johnson proved that the Braves did not discriminate against the bald. Turns out there's a whole lotta non-hair on the club. From L-to-R: Fredi G, Hinske (though the mohawk is gone), Jack Wilson (trust me, there's a cue ball under that hat), Brian M, Mikey Bourn, Huddy, Ross, Simmons, and new arrival Reed Johnson.

Paul Maholm, by the way, has roughly a 'Chipper' level of hair... for now.

After Tuesday: A Reference Guide to Waiver Trades

carpengui — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 02:09:59 -0000

I ran this last year, but since the questions always come up, so please consider this your go-to guide for everything you could ask about regarding baseball trades made after July 31st. It has also been updated to include the new rules associated with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) in effect this year. It's long, but spells out every Q&A situation I could think of. Last Update: August 2nd, Noon EDT.

While July 31st marked the end of the unrestricted trading deadline for Major League baseball, there is still a window of opportunity for contenders to continue to beef up their rosters for the stretch run. There are various explanations of this out there, but frankly, I didn't like like how they were structured/explained, so I have put together this version in the hopes of answering all of the inevitable questions. I do like, however, this definition of "waivers" from baseball-reference.com that I will start off with:

Waivers are a [request for] permission granted by the other teams in Major League Baseball to allow a team to do a player move which would not normally be allowed by the rules. In other words, opposing teams waive their objection to the move.

A "Waiver Claim", therefore, is a team's statement of objection to a request to waive player-movement rules. Such a claim has numerous implications, and that's the subject of this post.

So here's how Waiver Claim Trading works from August to the end of the Season:

1. Players made eligible for trade are placed on "revocable waivers". This is pretty much routinely done for much of the roster for most of the teams. Why? Well, it provides maximum flexibility for their GMs; it tends to mask whatever their true intentions might be (forest/trees); and it also doesn't single out individual players as possible targets -- which would tend to get players bent out of shape (witness Andruw Jones a few years ago).

2. Once placed on the Waiver list, there is a 48-hour claiming period, during which any team may put in an objection claim. To prevent every team from claiming every player out there and causing utter chaos, there is a token price ($20,000) attached to waiver claims. If a team fails to make a claim, it is effectively saying "we have no objection to you moving this player to another team", and thus they render themselves powerless in whatever happens after that point. In other words, they give up their right to complain later.

3. Let's do the simple case first: if all 30 teams choose not to put in an objection claim for a given player after the 48-hour window, that player may then be freely traded to any other team -- just like the rules allowed before August... except for a little detail that I'll cover in Item #6 below.

4. Now the fun part: a waiver claim is made. Let's use an example of Cliff Lee, since he could be an interesting case. His contract requires another $7-ish million payment this year, but kicks up to $25 million for each of the next 3 years with possibly more in 2016. It is exactly for that financial reason he will probably clear waivers unclaimed. But let's suppose that the Texas Rangers put in a claim. What happens then? Here are the options:

a. Revocation of Waivers. The Phillies can choose to pull Lee back to their side of the dark void... that's the "revocable" part of revocable waivers. This is effectively a team saying "PSYCH - I wasn't really trying to trade this guy." He still belongs to the original squad.... but of course they still gotta pay him, too.

b. A Trade. The Phillies can try to negotiate a trade.... exclusively with the Rangers, since they were the claimants (they asserted their right to object -- and are rewarded with this right of exclusivity). That trading opportunity window is limited -- 48 more hours. If they cannot get together on a deal in that time frame, then the Phils can still pull Lee back... OR they can...

c. Give the Player away. At the Phillies option, the claimed player can simply be given away -- entire salary and all -- to the claiming team. This is why the higher-salaried players will often clear waivers: because of the risk that it's simply a salary dump ploy. So while the initial dinner date (the waiver claim) might be cheap, you might regret it in the morning. We'll get to that more later.

5. Waiver Claims, part 2. If a player is pulled back to his original team (the waiver request is revoked), the original team CAN place the same player on waivers again in August. However, during that second time, the Right to Revoke is lost: any team making the claim has effectively bought the player without the need to negotiate anything.

6. Part 3, or 'a Trade is Bourn': Let's say that a bona fide trade deal is worked out. Waived Player A traded for a Player B. If Player B is on the 40-man roster of his club, then he must also have already passed through waivers successfully (i.e., his own 48-hour waiver period is done) before being trade-eligible.

When I mentioned "maximum flexibility" above, this is what I was referring to: getting a large number of your own players through waivers gives your GM more options for possible trades. Now if Player B is not on the 40-man, then there is no issue. This turns out to be common with "player-for-prospects" kind of trades.

Sometimes, these trades are also done on a "Player to be named later" (PTBNL) basis... if you believe you can't get a guy through waivers to make him tradable, then you simply wait out the process and "name" the guy after the season when this process is no longer in force. This also happens for draftees ending their first year in which they cannot be traded. So there are ways around it if the two partners are satisfied enough to wait it out... including trading for our buddy Cash.

There is a 6 month window available for trades involving PTBNL; if a major leaguer is involved, "the player named later can't have played in the same league as the team he's being traded to." (Rob Neyer's words).

7. Part 4: Getting More Complicated. Okay, that's trading with one claiming partner. But suppose there are multiple teams making claims on the same waived player. What then? Well, there's a "pecking order" of priority -- which prevents the best teams from simply loading up. Let's go back to Lee's case and suppose that the Giants, Nationals, Rangers, and Yankees ALL claimed him.

Take all of the teams making a claim and arrange them in order of League, and then by current Won-Loss record. In the case of Cliff Lee, he's National League, so the Giants and Nationals get first crack - and the Giants win out because their record is worse than Washington's. If no NL team claimed him, then the AL squads finally get a chance - with the Rangers prevailing over the Yankees (as of this writing) because of Teaxs' worse record.

Once again, the rule is this: First - look for claims within the same league as the waived player. If multiple teams in that league put in a claim, the winner is the one with the worst record on that date in which the 48 hour window expires. Next - If no team in the same league put in a claim, repeat the process for the opposing league. In case of a tie... well, I actually don't know the answer to that one; I would guess we'd use playoff tie-break rules!

If the claim-winning team is unable to come to a trade agreement, steps 4A and 4C (above) are still the only other options - you cannot go to the next claiming team in line. There are some unfair negotiating advantages that this would impose on the process otherwise.

8. Finally: Using Waiver Claims as a Weapon. There are numerous famous cases of a team making a claim specifically to block a (better) rival from obtaining a certain player. Do note that this is a two-way weapon... you might also get stuck with somebody that you don't really want yourself/can't afford. Here's some history:

> The Braves claimed pitcher Dennis Martinez in 1993 to block him from the Giants. We didn't get him... but then neither did the Giants. There's also a rumor that the Yankees put in 45 claims that year to try and block "every decent starting pitcher" available!

> However, the Yankees did get stuck with Jose Conseco in 2000 when he was waived by the Devil Rays in an apparent attempt to trade him to the Blue Jays. He basically sat on the bench for the rest of the year with no position available to him, but you could argue that the tactic was successful, because Jose - and his new teammates - ended up with a World Series ring.

> The Braves were blocked from getting closer Randy Myers in 1998 when the Blue Jays waived him and San Diego put in a claim. Oops... the Blue Jays simply gave him to the Padres for nothing, saying "thank you very much for taking his contract", which was for an additional $12 million over 2 years (think 1998 dollars - that was huge).

Additional Notes:

A. Note that waiver claim trades may continue to occur from now until the end of the season -- but to be "playoff eligible", traded players must be on their new team's 25-man roster before September 1st (*see below). It's for that reason that the waiver-trade action will be from now until the end of August, as the only practical reason for going past that date is to replace injured players.

B. Can teams talk trade before the waiver claims are made? Sure -- if you want to do a trade, it's a good idea to work out the parameters beforehand... and sometimes the claims process actually works out to let that happen.

C. Let's suppose the Cards and Brewers both make a waiver claim on the same player. Based on today's standings, the Brewers would win the claim. Do the Cardinals then get a refund of their $20 grand? Nope. That's their ante in the poker game: the non-refundable price of admission. It is high enough that most teams won't make claims frivolously -- but low enough to still allow for meaningful transactions.

D. So where do I (John Q. Baseballfan) go to see the current listing on the waiver wire? Well it turns you can't, actually. This tidbit from Wikipedia:

The waiver "wire" is a secret within the personnel of the Major League Baseball clubs; no announcement of a waiver is made until a transaction actually occurs.

Bummer. Occasionally some information will be leaked out, but by-and-large, we simply don't know until after the fact. Kinda takes all the fun out of it, but overall, that's probably a good thing.

E. *More About Playoff Eligibility. This is almost as confusing as the waiver process itself, but at least I cab boil it down to a fairly compact list of bullet points. A player is eligible for post-season play if he fits any of the following eligibility rules:

1. On the 25-man active roster before September 1st.

2. On the Disabled list as of August 31/midnight (but, per usual practice, must be eligible to come off of the list for a given playoff game)

3. On the bereavement list as of August 31/midnight.

4. On the suspended list as of August 31/midnight.

5. He is a member of the team's organization (any level) and is approved by the Commissioner's office to replace an injured player during the playoffs. Such a player must be a direct replacement (position for position: you can't add a pitcher to replace a catcher). If the player is not currently on the 40-man roster, he must be added. He then must be added to the 25-man active roster, replacing the injured man. Replacement player must have been a member of the organization continuously from at least the period of August 31st onward.

...and I think there's a time period in which you can do these replacements -- like the beginning of a series or something. But that's way deeper than we need to go right now.

F. I promised something about the new CBA. Here it is. During the season, if you trade somebody away, you don't get a compensatory draft pick. Likewise, if you accept a trade and then lose the player to off-season free agency, then you don't get a compensatory draft pick. Period.

Your team is eligible to receive a compensation pick IF all of the above apply:

You have the guy on your roster during the entire season.
You offer a contract matching or exceeding the average of the top 125 players (projected at around $13.33m for 2012). This is called the "Qualifying Offer".
The player turns down your offer and signs elsewhere.

In that case, your team gains ONE sandwich pick after the first round and after the 'competitive balance lottery' picks. The newly signing team loses their first round pick.... unless it was a top ten "protected" pick. So in short: in-season trades cancel any chance of a compensation pick.

G. The New CBA and "10-and-5" rights

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says there is no longer a required 24-hour waiting period for 10-and-5 players to approve a trade, so trade talk for players like Josh Beckett and Ryan Dempster can go right down to the wire.

Not only this, be do keep in mind that 10-and-5 rights cannot be ignored: at any point a trade is proposed, players with those rights in place must approve the trade in writing.

Several online sources contributed to this compilation of information. Thanks for tuning in.

Is Greinke Elite?

carpengui — Mon, 16 Jul 2012 20:33:40 -0000

Dave O'Brien, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution beat writer for the Atlanta Braves, seems to have started a storm when he tweeted this within the past hour:

@ajcbraves Compare Greinke results to elite starters in '10-'12 seasons. Can't see why some think he should be among the very highest paid. 1 great season.

Our own headmaster, gondeee, had to question this right off the bat:

Talking Chop ‏@gondeee @ajcbraves What stats are you comparing?

Others, including yours truly, chimed in as well:

Yes, I said '10-'12.. RT @kingmatt54: @ajcbraves Are you including '12? He's 1st in the NL in WAR (fangraphs).

@ajcbraves OK, compare stats to elite starters for past 9 -- whole career. RT @SpaldingBalls: @ajcbraves yep, just take out Greinke's best yr in sample

‏@ajcbraves You're serious? Verlander 1 great season? RT @SportsVisionary: @ajcbraves Verlander has only had 1 great season. Greinke is top 15 pitcher

@ajcbraves Cain has 4 cons. seasons of 217-plus IP and 1.175 career WHIP RT @skollock99: @ajcbraves Greinke '10-'12 has higher WAR than Cain and Hamels

He did not retweet my message, which was this:

@carpengui @ajcbraves Among Qualif. Starters since 2004, Greinke 23rd xFIP, 18th best FIP. (ERA ~50th). Since 2010 it's 4th and 8th, respec.

Finally, DOB came back with this:

@ajcbraves Some really misinterpreting. I like Greinke; filthy stuff. Just can't justify him in $20-mill-a-yr stratosphere with handful of top pitchers

No Dave, that's not misinterpreting: that's pretty well challenging you to defend your premise. And no, if you were to surface check his stats (W-L, ERA), then he does in fact tend to look like an average top-half-of-the-rotation starter.

In defense of O'Brien: in the world of "what have you done for me lately?", DOB did indeed leave out Greinke's 2009 campaign, which was easily his best for stats across the board, and led to the AL Cy Young award. I will grant him that it is indeed fair to ask if here in 2012 he is that kind of pitcher... it is the question the Braves need to have an answer for before they decide whether to (first) throw the farm at Milwaukee, and (later) the bank at Zack.

Apparently Milwaukee and the league think so. The Brewers didn't just throw out a $100 million (5 years) offer just because they thought he was "average."

I'll throw out one more stat before I throw this open for comments: In that 2010-2012 time period, Greinke has a K-to-Walk ratio of 3.90. That ranks sixth among all qualified starting pitchers over that time (just behind Hamels; in front of Verlander) with individual seasons ranking 14th (2011) and 21st (2012). In other words, he's pretty good and pretty consistent.

Let's debate it. Is Zack Greinke one of the elite?

Dave O'Brien, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution beat writer for the Atlanta Braves, seems to have started a storm when he tweeted this within the past hour:

@ajcbraves Compare Greinke results to elite starters in '10-'12 seasons. Can't see why some think he should be among the very highest paid. 1 great season.

Our own headmaster, gondeee, had to question this right off the bat:

Talking Chop ‏@gondeee @ajcbraves What stats are you comparing?

Others, including yours truly, chimed in as well:

Yes, I said '10-'12.. RT @kingmatt54: @ajcbraves Are you including '12? He's 1st in the NL in WAR (fangraphs).

@ajcbraves OK, compare stats to elite starters for past 9 -- whole career. RT @SpaldingBalls: @ajcbraves yep, just take out Greinke's best yr in sample

‏@ajcbraves You're serious? Verlander 1 great season? RT @SportsVisionary: @ajcbraves Verlander has only had 1 great season. Greinke is top 15 pitcher

@ajcbraves Cain has 4 cons. seasons of 217-plus IP and 1.175 career WHIP RT @skollock99: @ajcbraves Greinke '10-'12 has higher WAR than Cain and Hamels

He did not retweet my message, which was this:

@carpengui @ajcbraves Among Qualif. Starters since 2004, Greinke 23rd xFIP, 18th best FIP. (ERA ~50th). Since 2010 it's 4th and 8th, respec.

Finally, DOB came back with this:

@ajcbraves Some really misinterpreting. I like Greinke; filthy stuff. Just can't justify him in $20-mill-a-yr stratosphere with handful of top pitchers

Apparently Milwaukee and the league think so. The Brewers didn't just throw out a $100 million (5 years) offer just because they thought he was "average."

Let's debate it. Is Zack Greinke one of the elite?

The Unwritten Rules of Baseball

carpengui — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:06:21 -0000

Deadspin has found them! And as such, I thought them worthy of review and discussion in this space. Plus, although there are 30 such rules, I gotta think that they missed a few.... so certainly a complete run-down would be good. I'm pretty sure the submissions will be priceless (though maybe let's leave out "Don't get involved in a land war in Asia.").

So as reproduced from a 1986 edition of Baseball Digest, here they are:

1. Never put the tying or go-ahead run on base.
2. Play for the tie at home, go for the victory on the road.
3. Don't hit and run with an 0-2 count.
4. Don't play the infield in early in the game.
5. Never make the first or third out at third.
6. Never steal when you're two or more runs down.
7. Don't steal when you're well ahead.
8. Don't steal third with two outs.
9. Don't bunt for a hit when you need a sacrifice.
10. Never throw behind the runner.
11. Left and right fielders concede everything to center fielder.
12. Never give up a home run on an 0-2 count.
13. Never let the score influence the way you manage.
14. Don't go against the percentages.
15. Take a strike when your club is behind in a ballgame.
16. Leadoff hitter must be a base stealer. Designated hitter must be a power hitter.
17. Never give an intentional walk if first base is occupied.
18. With runners in scoring position and first base open, walk the number eight hitter to get to the pitcher.
19. In rundown situations, always run the runner back toward the base from which he came.
20. If you play for one run, that's all you get.
21. Don't bunt with a power hitter up.
22. Don't take the bat out of your best hitter's hands by sacrificing in front of him.
23. Only use your bullpen stopper in late-inning situations.
24. Don't use your stopper in a tie game—only when you're ahead.
25. Hit behind the runner at first base.
26. If one of your players gets knocked down by a pitch, retaliate.
27. Hit the ball where it's pitched.
28. A manager should remain detached from his players.
29. Never mention a no-hitter while it's in progress.
30. With a right-hander on the mound, don't walk a right-handed hitter to pitch to a left-handed hitter.

So as reproduced from a 1986 edition of Baseball Digest, here they are:

On the Way to Florida Tweet: "Braves equipment is loaded into three trucks for today's drive to...

carpengui — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 18:02:40 -0000

On the Way to Florida
Tweet: "Braves equipment is loaded into three trucks for today's drive to Florida for spring training."

Braves 2012 Caravan Schedule ... with Participants

carpengui — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 22:22:54 -0000

Braves 2012 Caravan Schedule ... with Participants

Click'em link to Braves Press Release.

JAN 25TH UPDATE: Martin Prado is now on the list.... Feb 7th at Greenville.

Recap: 1/17 Frank Wren Interview on XM/MLB Channel

carpengui — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 20:19:47 -0000

3pm EST 1/17/12, Jim Bowden, Casey Stern hosting Inside Pitch on Sirius/XM. This is a stream-of-listening paraphrase of what I hear, in semi-real-time. Wasn't a lot of ground-breaking info.

---------------------------
Nice intro - Jim Powell highlight calls from games in 2011.

1. Busy day for you.... lots of signing/agreements. Last one JJ, done about 5 mins before the slary-figure-exchange deadline. Credits his staff for good work over the weekend.

2. Is avoiding arbitration advantageous? It's a right the players have; it doesn't typically have a lot of holdover effects. We try to avoid it, but are not afraid of the process.

3. Jim Bowden - argues that 'doing nothing' is a great off-season given the organization. "Thanks for giving me that, Jim!" We have a huge fanbase, hard for them to understand not doing much. We basically made the whole roster available if we could make the team better. Had several inquires on several players. We underperformed last year; hoping these guys will bounce back. We'll have some time to see if that happens. If there's something that's a clear winner for us, we'd do it, but not otherwise.

4. Where's the one spot in the field where you would want to upgrade? Well, that's the trouble -- no clear spot (went through all positions and explained). We need to be open-minded and such, but none of the discussions we had with other teams got very close.

5. How important was it to retain Prado (for sake of covering for Chipper) vs. getting a LF hitter? Great point Jim, because if we had traded Prado, it would mean multiple changes to our team.

Note: Mentioned Chipper in town hitting in the cage.

6. Depth of Rotation. Casey gets the sense that you like Minor as the lefty. How do you handle Delgado and Teheran. You're right - we prefer to have that lefty, but Teheran and Delgado are definitely "ready". If Hudson, Hanson, JJ, Beachy are ready, then there's probably not a spot for those guys yet. Left a hint that maybe Hanson and JJ might not be 100%

7. Do you see Medlen and Vizcaino in the bullpen? Yeah... Medlen has this swing-n-miss changeup - could pitch anywhere in the bullpen. Vizzy a little behind in maturity and pitching.... will be an interesting spring training (kinda curtailed discussion of Vizzy).

8. Fredi managing bullpen. He changed in the 2nd half, but the real problem in the bullpen was the offsense not swinging the bats well enough to allow the starters some room to go deeper in the games.

9. Fredi more: your assessment of Fredi - is he on the hotseat, or the long-term answer? "No, Fredi - we love Fredi". It's tough to follow Bobby, but Bobby's one of his greatest supporters and is there for advice. Handled the transition well.

Dr. StrangeGlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love to Rosterbate

carpengui — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 17:33:10 -0000

Yes - the previous Rosterbation post is still active... so way did I feel the need to start another one? Lots of reasons based on recent newsy items:

"Wait - yeah, they're still watching us." Seabass and Odarp: Walking off into a Braves' sunset?

1. The Braves are openly saying that they are listening to offers for Jurrjens and Prado.

2. The Braves are increasing payroll for 2012. I already believe they had some cash to spend before that announcement and the Lowe trade added $5m more. If Prado and JJ are ultimately dealt, this saves $3.1m and $3.25m from the 2011 payroll - never mind their expected increases via arbitration. And, of course, the Braves would have to fill those positions.

3. The non-Super-2 status of any player for 2012 Arbitration has implications.

4. New rumors are flying about concering a number of current Free Agents

5. A new Cuban defector of significant note (Yoenis Cespedes) is out there. As of this writing, the Marlins are supposedly the front-runners for him, though the Yankees have high interest... and so do a number of other teams.

6. Many of the comments on that prior thread are simply no longer applicable, having been overcome by events. And there's only 3 days to go on it...So why not start afresh and see how this goes?

7. Hey! The World Series is over, the season is over,... my mourning over September is...um, pretty much over. It's indeed time to stop worrying and embrace the changes this off-season will likely bring to the Braves roster.

While pitching is still going to be an issue this off-season (primarily with bullpen holes to fill - Linebrink, Sherrill, possibly Moylan), Atlanta usually waits on these slots until later. That leaves us with finding an outfield upgrade, shortstop, and utility infielder.

To kick things off, please refer to the following chart of outfielders. I list all of these guys for two reasons: (1) for complete comparison purposes; and (2) because both Free Agent and Trade routes may be available in our quest for upgrading the position. Hopefully the image download bandwidth limits survive this thread. All data obtained via fangraphs.

Click here to embiggen the chart for slightly easier reading. You'll have to click-through a second time... hopefully that will also help that bandwidth thing.

Yes - the previous Rosterbation post is still active... so way did I feel the need to start another one? Lots of reasons based on recent newsy items:

"Wait - yeah, they're still watching us." Seabass and Odarp: Walking off into a Braves' sunset?

1. The Braves are openly saying that they are listening to offers for Jurrjens and Prado.

3. The non-Super-2 status of any player for 2012 Arbitration has implications.

4. New rumors are flying about concering a number of current Free Agents

6. Many of the comments on that prior thread are simply no longer applicable, having been overcome by events. And there's only 3 days to go on it...So why not start afresh and see how this goes?

Click here to embiggen the chart for slightly easier reading. You'll have to click-through a second time... hopefully that will also help that bandwidth thing.

Scary News Monday (via MLBTR)

carpengui — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 14:36:26 -0000

Scary News Monday (via MLBTR)

Tony LaRussa Retires (so what now about Albert?)
Davey Johnson: option picked up by Nats to manage in 2012 (quickly done in case St. Louis called)
Nate McLouth filed for Free Agency yesterday (Braves haven't "formally" declined his option yet, but...)
Aramis Ramirez walks away from $16 million (voids option picked up by Cubs; becomes FA)
Hinske option remains for Braves to decide ($1.5m for 2012; $100K buyout)

Jon Morosi tweet: David Freese compared Derek Holland to seeing Jonny Venters for 8 innings

carpengui — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 18:57:07 -0000

Jon Morosi tweet: David Freese compared Derek Holland to seeing Jonny Venters for 8 innings

Jon Morosi on twitter

Astros Sale to be Approved; Moving to AL West

carpengui — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 16:53:50 -0000

Astros Sale to be Approved; Moving to AL West

Courtesy of MLBTR:

"Astros owner Drayton McLane is expected to complete the sale of the team to Jim Crane in mid-November, according to Peter Gammons of MLB Network (on Twitter). The arrangement would move Houston to the American League West and even MLB into two leagues of 15 teams."

This is new - no info of when this move would take effect: 2012 (which would be REAL quick) or 2013. More to come, I am certain.

Atlanta Braves' 2011 Prospects End of Year Update

carpengui — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 16:17:43 -0000

As distinguished from the previous post, this chart represents the final minor league stats for all (remaining) prospects on the Talking Chop Top 25 list. Hopefully, I got the math right for those that experienced multiple levels this year. Because of the recent interest he has garnered, I have taken the liberty of adding Evan Gattis to the list... he's a beast. Click here to embiggen.

Feel free to murmur excitedly about this team's bright future... especially given the mound presence.

P.S. - Mike Minor's stats are not here because... he's not on the prospect list any longer.

Feel free to murmur excitedly about this team's bright future... especially given the mound presence.

P.S. - Mike Minor's stats are not here because... he's not on the prospect list any longer.

Atlanta Braves' 2011 Draftees End of Year Update

carpengui — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 20:56:26 -0000

First and foremost: all research and inspiration credit goes to ArmyITSpec for this FanPost idea and its maintenance. Thank you for your service sir - in many more ways than this. In response to some of the comments from the original version of this post, I have taken his data and created something 'pagnosis-esque' that I hope will be useful to the community here.

The following chart represents the final stats for our recent Braves draftees in their first few weeks and months of professional ball. Click here to embiggen, as they say.

(Revised) Scheduling Favors Atlanta Down the Stretch

carpengui — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 19:23:10 -0000

Thanks to Hurricane Irene, the next scheduled off-day for the 83-46 Phillies is now Thursday, September 29. That is, unless we somehow end up needing a division tie-breaker game, for that date marks the day after the regular-season ends.

Yes: 31 days remain, and 33 games remain on the Phils' schedule with double-headers on both the 15th and 20th. No breaks at all.

The only good news for the Phils is that September relief call-ups are a mere 3 days away... well, that and they are in first place. Cole Hamels is also being activated from the DL today, but Jimmy Rollins is going to be out for another week-plus. Lately, it's been a tag-team thing with them -- as soon as one player is retrieved from the shelf, another is folded neatly and placed on it. Currently, I'd watch Roy Ozwalt, who didn't exactly dazzle in their loss on Friday.

But let's check the details of that schedule:

Aug. 29-Sept 4. On the road: 4 at Cincy, then 3 at the Marlins. Isn't it about time for the Marlins to go on a hot streak again? Hmmm...I see that the Phils were provided with 'getaway' day game scheduling from both destinations.

Sept. 5-7. Back home to Philadelphia for a whopping 3 game homestand.... against Atlanta.
Sept. 8-14. Back on the road: 4 games vs. Milwaukee, followed by 3 vs. the Astros.

Obviously both teams will be trying to make a pre-playoff statement in the Brewers' series. That will be interesting, but certainly we would hope that the home team can at least split this series. As for Houston... we hear of "trap" games in football -- games you're supposed to easily win, but instead are panic-events coming off of the emotional high of a difficult prior win. If there was ever a good time for Houston to play the Phils, it's probably right here in this slot.

Again, day games for the end of each road series. Wish they had given us one of those the week before.

Sept. 15-22. Now back home for the last time... The Marlins have to make a special trip back to Philly... in the midst of a their own 11 game/10 day road trip. And they will have just left Atlanta. You can always hope for a split, but I'd be ~~surprised~~ stunned if the Fish can do that here.

After that scrimmage, they get the Cards for 4 and the Nats for 4. 10 games in 8 days on that homestand.

St. Louis actually has a brutal stretch here as well -- Milwaukee, Cincy, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and now the Phils. They do have an off-day on the 15th -- right before this series -- so that should help.

The Nats likewise have the 19th off before the double-header on the 20th. Hopefully this wears out both the Phils and the Nats, for the Nats then cruise down I-95 to host the Braves on the 23rd. Oh, and Strasburg will likely be pitching against the Phils... but then again, maybe against us, too.

Sept. 23-28. The Phils finish up on the road after that nasty homestand... 3 vs. the Mets; and 3 vs. Atlanta.

As for the Bravos... only 29 games remain on their schedule. The Braves had almost every Thursday off in September, but now it's only the 15th and 22nd, after this extra 'All-Star Break' through today. Hey, extra days off at home isn't a bad thing. But I reference the ASB for a good reason: The worst schedule stretch they have starts tomorrow: 6 home games in a row, then 9 more consecutive road games in 8 days... kinda like mid-July. The Dodgers, Philly, New York, and the Cardinals are all included with that. Expect guys named Minor, Teheran, and Delgado to get some work ("our backup pitchers can beat up your backup pitchers"). Notably, however, even the road trips are not horrible in duration or distance. Plus, there's the two days off later in the month - exactly when needed.

I believe we need to gain about 3 games on the Phillies in the non-head-to-head matchups. If so, we might be able to beat up a really tired team at the end of the year and thus take the division. Yes, they have '4 games in hand' -- but this isn't exaclty an advantage as you can say they're all made up as double-headers. You gotta think it's still within reach. Let's just see how Jurrjens and Hanson (especially) are doing, and keep everybody else healthy.

SBNation.com User Blog: carpengui

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The Atlanta Braves won 94 games in 2012, good for 4th-best in baseball. As constructed today, how many wins do you think this team gets in 2013?

Less than 81 (finishing below .500)

81-85

86-90

91-95

96-100

100+

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Scary News Monday (via MLBTR)

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