My first post in a very long time.  I haven't had much to write about - you guys do too good a job, but I felt that this was deserving of a note.

Chris Brown (@smartfootball on twitter), provided a link to what is reported to be Buddy Ryan's playbook from when he was the Defensive Coordinator of the Houston Oilers in a blog post about Buddy's "Polish Goalline Defense".  The first page of which contains this absolute gem:

via lh4.googleusercontent.com

There is an absolute gold mine of interesting content in the pdf, including season long goals for things like yards per play, interceptions and QB hurries and hits.  Buddy was looking for 160 hurries and hits per game.  I wonder if he wanted every QB hurry to become a QB hit...

I'm finding it quite an interesting diversion.
Thanks for reading and never miss an opportunity to punish your opponent.
Jay

And the Associative Property of Personnel Moves.

Sheldon Brown.  One of my favorite players on the team.  Gone.  His frank interviews and his gritty onfield play will be nearly impossible to replace, but this is the business of football.  Many fans are complaining that the Eagles didn't get enough for him, that the Eagles should have gotten at least a third round pick for him.

Statistically speaking, the argument can be made that Sheldon was the Eagles best cornerback last year.  This absolutely justifies the Eagles wanting at least a 3rd round pick for Sheldon.  If you believe ProFootballFocus's table linked above, Sheldon was worth far more than a 3rd round pick.  That's not what the Eagles got.  

If you agree with Tommy Lawlor, the Eagles got pick numbers 105 and 137 (4th and 5th round) for Sheldon and the Birds traded Gocong straight up for Hall.  Les Bowen on the other hand said 4th round pick and Hall for Brown and a fifth round pick for Chris.

In another formulation, Tommy says:

Sheldon = 105+137 and Gocong = Hall.  

Les on the other hand said:  

Sheldon = 105 + Hall and Gocong =137.  

The truth of the matter is that the trade was:  

Sheldon + Chris = 105 + Hall + 137.  

It doesn't matter where you put the parentheses. 

Looking at a couple  versions of the "Draft Value Chart", the Eagles got the equivalent of a mid to late 3rd round pick and Hall for Sheldon and Chris.  Is this enough for an aging, potentially disgruntled albeit excellent vet and a backup linebacker?  I'm not sure, but it seems fair to me.

Chris Gocong.  

I must admit I have a soft spot for the dude.  So often vilified by many of us fans, Chris gets nothing but ignored in weekly media sessions.  The fluff piece on PE.com about his volunteer work at a Voorhees Animal shelter really made me want him to be a good player.  

There was an article a while back where Gocong describes himself as the Defensive Fullback (Brookover), in the article Gocong says that he can have a great game and not even show up once in the stat sheet.  Everytime somebody blasts Gocong, I think about that article and wish I could offer up video evidence of what the heck he was talking about.  Thanks to the "Anatomy of a Play" that they posted on PE.com today, I've got it.  

The play in question was Spoon's strip sack.  The video quality they post on PE.com isn't great, and you have to watch a bunch of stuff before you get to the play in question so I link you to NFL.com instead.  I watched this play several times and will outline what happened after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

I'm over Andy Reid.  I can't take his play calling anymore.  He should run the ball more.  He should manage the clock better.  In order to get over the last hurdle to winning a Super Bowl, the Eagles need to bring in a coach with experience winning a Super Bowl.  Bill Cowher is out there and just about ready to start coaching again.  Jeff Laurie should go get him.  Peter King had an interesting note in his MMQB column that really emphasizes my point here and I think you guys should all check it out - it's the second stat of the week.

The Eagles and Andy Reid's agent,Bob LaMonte, are in negotiations to extend his contract beyond the 2010 season, after which the current deal is due to expire.

Why with the difficulties that the Eagles have had winning the big game should the Eagles even consider resigning Andy Reid?  Bill Cowher is out there and we should go get him - unless of course he's already here...

[Note by cavortingEagle, 10/19/09 1:42 PM MDT ]  edit.

Advanced NFL Stats is a tremendous website for nerds who find the numbers behind the game interesting.  The author doesn't typically post on a daily basis, but when he does the post is usually thought provoking.  I check his site about once per week.  Today I stumbled upon this gem where Andy's decision to punt the ball back to Cincinatti late in the game is derided as the worst 4th down decision of the year.  According to the author's methodology, giving Cincy the ball back with so much time left in the game gave Cincinatti almost a 1 in 3 chance of pulling out the game, whereas converting the 4th and 1 would have given the Birds about a 60 percent chance to pull the game out in regulation (they only would have needed another 15 yards for a long FG)...

The author's methodology for determining win probability is fairly sound and well documented (that last link is not for the faint of heart).  It's also something which can be evaluated on a play by play basis and the site provides in game win probabilities for some (all?) games during the acutal game.  

Knowing what we know now, playing for the draw worked just fine, but at the time we all would have liked to have seen a little more aggression.  Would you have punted, or gone for it with the game on the line in the fourth quarter?

I've never been one to spend much time on the passing of a friend or family member.  I prefer to celebrate their life and hope they discover what they wished for when they get where they are going.  That said, two articles I've read today (both linked to from Football Outsiders) are worth consideration in large part of their celebration of Jim Johnson's career as Eagles Defensive Coordinator.

The first is a note from the Houston Chronicle which contains a diagram of one of the blitz packages the Eagles used against the Steelers, after breaking down the salient points of the diagram the author notes:

While this blitz package certainly put the Eagles defense at risk, Johnson understood how to balance risk/reward. The Steelers had to change how they approached protections against A-gap blitzes for fear that more teams would copy Johnson. Sure enough, the Steelers saw the exact same blitz package from another team later in the season, but the Steelers had learned their lesson after being schooled by Johnson. 

The whole entry is worth a read, check it out (also linked from the fanshots by bullpen116).

The other article is written by one of the Football Outsider's main contributors Doug Farrar and was published on hs blog for the Washington Post Smarter Stats.  Farrar runs down the remarkable statistical dominance that Johnson's Eagles Defenses have had over the past ten years, but he concludes his piece by suggesting:

My hope is that Johnson's legacy and memory brings more visibility to all great assistant coaches - including and especially to the Hall of Fame voters. Assistant coaches are a woefully underrepresented class in Canton, and this needs to change.

Johnson's name wouldn't be a bad place to start.

Anyway read Doug's post and be marvel at the consistency Jim got from his defenses.

Jim Johnson was never a head coach, he never wanted to be one.  Should that preclude his inclusion in the Hall of Fame?  Are Johnson's innovations enough to warrant his inclusion into the Hall?  I'd say yes, but I'm just a fan.  What about Peter King and his compatriots?  We shall see.