SB Nation User Blog: cavortingEagle

Football Outsiders Almanac: Free Chapter on the Gints

cavortingEagle — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 16:50:57 -0000

Football Outsiders Almanac: Free Chapter on the Gints

Seems Aaron Schwartz and the Football Nerds like the G-Men to win the NFC East. Good in depth write up.

One of the newest members of the Bleeding Green Nation. The nurse screamed when they stuck his...

cavortingEagle — Fri, 01 May 2009 20:46:23 -0000

One of the newest members of the Bleeding Green Nation. The nurse screamed when they stuck his heel and green blood oozed forth. We'll call him cavortingBean.

Football Outsiders 2009 Prospectus

cavortingEagle — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:22:29 -0000

Football Outsiders 2009 Prospectus

Will not be sold in stores. Rather it will be a PDF download and /or print to order tome available from Amazon.
HT to Bounty and Igglesblog.

A Statistics Primer for Football Fans: Data.

cavortingEagle — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 13:40:03 -0000

In order to talk about statistics intelligently, we first need to lay down some definitions, the most important of which is the definition of data.

Data represent collections of observations. As I scan my living room, I see 3 glasses one plate and 2 knives left out from last night. Additionally there is one cat on the couch and 1 dog at my feet. These data tell you something about me. I'm not the neatest person in the world, but dogs and cats live together in my house and the world hasn't ended. These are certainly not the kind of data we're interested in here, but I wanted to present it to make the point that data are all around us. The statistics applied to football are just as useful when applied to linguistics or population modelling.

Generally speaking, observations can be broken into two groups: categorical data and quantitative data.

Categorical Data

Categorial data are data that bin into groups, for instance players drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles or passes attempted short, medium and deep. Categorical data can be further described as nominal or ordinal.

Nominal data have nothing distinguishing them beyond the bin in which they reside. Players drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles represent nominal data. While there may be some emotional investment, there is nothing this group of observations has that distinguishes itself from the players drafted by the Cincinatti Bengals other than the jersey the players will be wearing on the first day of training camp.

Unlike nominal data, ordinal data do have characteristics that distinguish them. Ordinal data are data in which order is important. The NFL play by play lists short medium and long pass attempts, this represents a prime example of ordinal data.

A particularly important type of categorical data to football fans is binary data. Binary data are categories with only 2 bins. Passes are either complete or incomplete; a penalty is either commited on a play or it is not; and a team is either on offense or defense. The NFL play by play is full of examples of binary data, if you feel like it, check it out...

Quantitative Data

Quantitative data represent observations that can be measured. Rather than saying that the game was played on a hot day, a measurement gets made and we can say that it was 97 degrees fahrenheit outside at kickoff. Like categorical data there are two kinds of quantitative data too: continuous data and discrete data.

Discrete data are data in which only certain values are possible. They exist in discrete intervals. A field goal is worth 3 points, a touchdown 6 and an extra point 1.

Continuous data are data which can be recorded continuously. Brian Westbrook carried for 5.6251329 yards on the last play. Donovan McNabb was sacked for -12.5532323232 yards. Almost all of the continuous data in the NFL play by play are recorded as discrete data, but that is something we simply have to accept.

Enough about data. In my next installment I'll discuss statistics in general and define descriptive and inductive statistics.

Thanks for reading.

A Statistics Primer for Football Fans: A Prologue?

cavortingEagle — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 15:49:56 -0000

Amongst fans, there seem to be two primary schools of thought regarding statistics and football with a third group emerging.

The first group can cite the yards per carry of their favorite running back and the completion percentage of their teams starting quarterback. This group often presents these numbers when discussing the merits of their favorite team or player.
The second group rejects statistics out of hand, saying things like “statistics are meaningless” while directly contradicting themselves by adding, “the only numbers that matter are wins and losses.”
The third group is perhaps the most interesting. They are the devotees of sites like Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats. This group can reference their favorite team's DVOA and can appreciate the value of an in game win probability.

I count myself among the followers of Football Outsiders and would like to recruit some new members into the fold. With that said however, I also feel like I belong in the second group too – if you don't know what you're talking about, statistics are meaningless. Citing numbers without true understanding amounts to sound and fury.

If I go ahead with this project, I will be basing much of what I write from an online publication, hyperstat online, and I will organize my entries much like the online text is presented there. My examples will come out of the Eagles PDF Gamebooks published by the NFL. I will start with the most basic and will build from there.

I haven't posted much in some time because I've had trouble finding something original to say and so many of the other “daily chores” of BGN are so aptly handled by members of the community. This is something I feel like I can contribute and is also a subject that I myself want to learn more about. So, if you guys feel like this is something worthwhile, I'll get started on “Chapter 1” this weekend.

Poll

Assuming this "cavortingEagle" dude has any aptitude whatsoever, should he run down some fanposts on Statistics for Football Fans, or would he be better off spending his time playing Madden?

I'd like to know more about statistics, bring it.

11 votes

Doesn't matter to me either way, I don't care for statistics one bit.

0 votes

I'm into stats already, but I'd dig a refresher

4 votes

Madden

2 votes

17 votes | Poll has closed

When I asked him about Donovan McNabb's offseason drama, he was pretty blunt. "I've always thought...

cavortingEagle — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 23:38:22 -0000

When I asked him about Donovan McNabb's offseason drama, he was pretty blunt.

"I've always thought if players sign a contract, they should go ahead and honor it," he said.

The "he" is John Runyan

But Sunday marked the start of March, which means NFL offseason programs are mere weeks away....

cavortingEagle — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 23:01:57 -0000

But Sunday marked the start of March, which means NFL offseason programs are mere weeks away. Before long, work will be heavy on players' minds.

In Westbrook's case, a key step toward that front was taken recently when he underwent knee surgery and began a rigorous rehab he hopes will whip him back in the form he displayed for most of the 2008 season, during which he wore down in the home stretch.

Mcall.com

Dawk still a free agent

cavortingEagle — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 13:23:25 -0000

As of 6:23 MST February 28.

Per the Denver Post:

However, the Broncos can drop a cannonball that would shake the league from here to the Liberty Bell if they can finish off a deal for Brian Dawkins.

A seven-time Pro Bowl safety, Dawkins, 35, has played his entire 13-year career with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Dawkins flew to Denver on Friday night to visit with the Broncos. Would he end his career with the Broncos much like Broncos safety Steve Atwater finished off his career with the New York Jets?

Vic Lombardi, the CBS 4 Denver Sports News anchor last night said that Dawk would sleep on it. Whatever, Brian is trying to do what is best for him and his family. Per Vic, the entire Dawkins family came to Denver. Dawk and the new Broncos attended last night's Nuggets win over the Lakers, but Brian has yet to speak with the media in Denver.

I'm going skiing.

If receiver Roy Williams resulted in a first-round pick, a third-round pick, and a fifth-round pick...

cavortingEagle — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 18:23:36 -0000

If receiver Roy Williams resulted in a first-round pick, a third-round pick, and a fifth-round pick for the Lions, Boldin should bring in even more than that for the Cardinals — and the Cardinals would be wise to cut their best deal and move on.

Profootball Talk
The price is steep, but I'd go so far to say it'd be worth it.

Surgery for Brian Westbrook?

cavortingEagle — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 20:11:30 -0000

Surgery for Brian Westbrook?

"I think they're running medical tests to determine the source of the irritation," the source said. "If he does need surgery, it's only going to be minor and he may not need it at all. We know he will rest and work hard in the off-season and we're optimistic he'll come back healthy."

Seems Running Back might be a bigger priority than we thought.