SB Nation User Blog: cbwilk

Braves' Recent Rule V History

cbwilk — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:15:39 -0000

Everyone loves to talk about how players like Dan Uggla, Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Joakim Soria, and even Roberto Clemente were aquired through the Rule V draft, but the reality is that it's not typically a very profitable way to aquire top tier talent. With this year's Rule V draft coming up next week, I thought I'd take a look at how the Braves have been helped and hurt, or haven't been, by the Rule V draft in this decade.

2007

Major League Phase: The Reds select RHP Sergio Valenzuela. This was a pretty curious move at the time as Valenzuela had racked up around a 7 ERA between Rome and Myrtle Beach in 2007 and a 5.61 ERA in four seasons. The move looked even worse after he was rocked in Spring Training with the Reds and returned to the Braves, who promptly sold his rights to Moncolva of the Mexican League. He actually pitched pretty decently there (8-4, 4.89 ERA, 18 starts), but his propects of reaching the majors are slim.

Minor League Phase: The Rangers select 3B Jaime Trejo. This was no loss at all as the Braves had actually loaned him to a Mexican League team for the 2007 season. He spent 08 in the Mexican League again, though I'm not sure if he was released by the Rangers or loaned by them too.

2006

Major League Phase: The Mariners select RHP Sean White. The M's actually managed to keep White on their roster all season, though they utilized the very liberal DL rules that seem to only apply to Rule V selections to make it work. He only appeared in 15 games in 07 for Seattle and spent 08 in AAA, racking up a 5.47 ERA to go with a 6-11 record. With all the turmoil in the Braves pitching this past season, there's a possibility White could have gotten a shot had he stayed with the Braves, but there's an equal possibility he could have fizzled out in AA.

2005

Minor League Phase: The Mariners select 2B Jason Bourgeois. He had fairly limited playing time for Richmond in 2005 and didn't really distinguish himself in 06 at AA for the Mariners. But, after leaving the M's as a Minor Leauge free agent and signing with the White Sox, Bourgeois all of the sudden became a player. He hit .306 with 38 steals between AA and AAA in 07 and hit .286 with 30 steals in 08 at AAA before making a brief 6 game ML debut with the White Sox. He just signed a minor league deal with the Brewers (in fact, he's eligible for this year's Rule V draft) and while he's not likely to ever become a star, his increased versatility (playing all over the infield and outfield) and speed mean he could see some more time in the bigs.

The Cardinals select C Iker Franco. He was adequate as a backup between Richmond and Mississippi in 05 and actually knocked in 10 homer at AA for the Cardinals in 06. He returned to Richmond in 07 and helped the team to win the IL Championship, though he did much more with his defense than his bat. Franco returned to his native Mexico in 08 and produced a good season with a .284 average and 22 homers, so maybe he'll be able to find a job in affiliated ball in 09.

The Red Sox select RHP Jason Richardson. He had a decent season in 05 between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, but was pretty bad for the Red Sox' A ball team in 06. He's spent the last two seasons with the independent Sommerset team and his chances of pitching affiliated ball again are fading fast.

The White Sox select C Cole Armstrong. The Braves' enormous catching depth at the time (which included Brian McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Brayan Pena, Clint Sammons, Max Ramirez, and caused Kyle Roat to suddenly retire in Spring Training) allowed Armstrong to slip to the Sox in the Minor League phase. The big Canadian has quietly climed the ladder, reaching AAA in 08 and earning a place on the Sox 40 man roster. While his offense might be better than Clint Sammons', his defense isn't, and it seems unlikely he would have survived the catching glut.

2004

Major League Phase: The Red Sox select OF Adam Stern. He's the classic case of how the Rule V draft can irrevocably deter the development of a player. After a very nice season for Greenville in 2004, the athletic, rangy, strong armed outfielder was buried on the end of the bench in Boston. A broken thumb didn't help and he spent so much time on the DL he actually had to be active for the beginning of 06 to allow the Red Sox to retain his rights. After a so-so season for the Red Sox AAA team he was traded to the Orioles for Javy Lopez. He spent 07 in AAA, only appearing in 2 games for the Orioles and was released in June of 08 after his performance declined. Stern has been a key part of the Canadian Olympic and WBC teams, so he be able to earn a job somewhere with a good showing in the 09 WBC.

Minor League Phase: The Mariners select 2B Aaron Herr. He was a bust as a supplemental first round pick, but had a breakout season for the Cardinals' AA team in 2005. Nevertheless, he left as a Minor League free agent to the Reds, where he had a couple of productive seasons at AA and AAA before falling off at AAA this season and getting released. He finished out the year with the Indians' AAA team and while he's developed into a power hitting third baseman, his chances at making the majors don't seem high.

2003

Major League Phase: The Devil Rays select RHP Alec Zumwalt. The former professional outfielder didn't make the team out of Spring Training and was returned to the Braves. He didn't pitch great at AAA in 2004, but was traded along with Jose Capellan for Dan Kolb. He had some borderline effective years at AA and AAA for the Brewers (in fact a very nice 2006 season) before becoming pretty ineffective for the Athletics' AAA team in 2007. He spent this past season with independent Camden and his chances of reaching the majors seem pretty slim.

Minor League Phase: The Angels select LHP Willi Collazo. He was very effective out of the bullpen for Myrtle Beach and Greenville in 2003, but less so for the Angels' AA team in 2004. He was downright awful in 05, compling a 7.01 ERA. He regained his form in 06 after signing with the Mets as a minor league free agent, with a good year between AA and AAA, followed by a great year at AAA in 07 that led to a six game Major League debut. He didn't return to the majors in 08, but pitched decently in AAA, splitting time between starting and relieving. He's left handed and breathing, so he's still got a chance to have and impact in the majors.

The Devil Rays select C Adan Munoz. This one never made any sense; he only played 16 games of affiliated ball, all for Greenville in 2002, a year before this draft took place, and never played a game with any Rays team. Apparently he's still playing in the Mexican League, but it's pretty unlikely he'll ever come back to the states.

(Couldn't find Minor League Phase details for 2000-2002)

2002

Major League Phase: The Padres select RHP Buddy Hernandez. He was immediately traded to the Athletics for Jose Flores (who the Athletics claimed back during Spring Training), but he didn't make the team and was returned to the Braves. Aside from the 2005 season, which he missed most of due to injury, Hernandez deserved a callup to the majors every year between 03 and 07. He was an effective, reliable reliever, but his diminutive size and lack of overpowering stuff seemed to have doomed him. He spent the 08 season as Alec Zumwalt's teammate with the independent Camden team and his chances at a major league shot seem to be fading.

The Braves select RHP Chris Spurling from the Pirates. He's the last player the Braves actually selected in the Rule V draft, but he didn't make the team and was traded to the Tigers for Matt Coenen. Spurling was a fairly effective, if not great, reliever for the Tigers and Brewers for four seasons, but he didn't play anywhere in 2008 and his status for the future is certainly in question. Coenen was fairly good for Myrtle Beach in 2003, before hurting his arm in 2004. He was ultimately released and certainly didn't give the Braves the kind of return on the trade that Spurling gave the Tigers.

2001

Major League Phase: The Devil Rays select Kevin McGlinchy. He basically jumped from A ball to the Majors with the Braves in 1999 and turned in a stellar rookie season. That jump though likely led to him blowing his arm out in 2000 and that's why he was avialable in the Rule V Draft. It was a smart move by the Rays to select him, but, unfortunately, he was never healthy enough to even pitch a game for their organization. He ended up making a comeback with a few indy league teams and the Cubs' AA and AAA affiliates, but his career ended in 2005 without having pitched another game in the majors.

********************

If you read all this, you're a champ, +297 to you. The big point is that the Braves aren't likely to take any great losses in the upcoming draft, nor are they likely to make any great gains, or any picks for that matter. In fact, judging all this, the best Rule V strategy would be to look for minor league free agents who have been drafted in the Minor League Phase before.

Jairo Cuevas back with the Braves

cbwilk — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 02:23:54 -0000

Jairo Cuevas only manged to last a month with the Kansas City Royals as the Braves reclaimed him off waivers. This kind of transaction has happened before, but it's always odd when it does. The article on the Braves site had a couple of tidbits of information I didn't know, the first that Cuevas was signed as a third baseman, which is kind of interesting, and the second is that the surgery he had likely won't allow him to pitch until July or August of 2009. This seems like a lot of transactions for a pitcher with only three AAA games under his belt who will turn 26 before he pitches a meaningful, healthy game in 2010. This leaves the Braves with 38 players on their 40 man roster, and my guess is that if they need a spot, Cuevas will be put on waivers again. Whether or not the Royals claim him again is anyone's guess.

Carlos Sencion sign with Royals

cbwilk — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 03:44:57 -0000

We all know Royals GM Dayton Moore has a soft spot for Braves farm hands, and he's landed another one, signing left handed pitcher Carlos Sencion to a minor league deal. Sencion had a nice season with AA Mississippi and is projectable as a 6'6" lefty, you could easily see him dominating out of the bullpen, but he just turned 24 and hasn't pitched an inning above AA yet. This may turn out to be a loss for the Braves, but with all the other, more highly regarded pitching prospects in the organization, allowing Sencion to leave as a free agent was likely a calculated risk.

Moore actually managed to pick up another former Braves minor leaguer this week, also signing shortstop Luis Hernandez to a minor league contract. Hernandez, also 24, was surprisingly good in his debut in the Majors for the Orioles last season, but his normally stellar defense left him this season and he was relegated to AAA for much of the year. Luis is one of my favorite people in baseball, but he really seems to have regressed as a hitter. His defense was once again stellar in AAA, but he looked like he had forgotten how to hit. The Royals already have one former Brave shortstop who can't hit in Tony Pena Jr., so I don't see how Luis really fits into their plans, other than as AAA insurance.

The only current Braves minor league transaction was the retirement of infielder Paul Bennett. Bennett played for Myrtle Beach, Mississippi, and Richmond this season, working as a utility infielder. He never had much of a bat, compiling a .219 average in two and a half seasons in the organization, but he was an older player who provided leadership. Hopefully he's able to find a lot of success away from the baseball field.

Rodrigo Lopez Released

cbwilk — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 08:22:20 -0000

Right hand pitcher Rodrigo Lopez, who once had a couple of 15 win seasons for the Orioles, was released by the Braves. Lopez had been recovering from arm troubles that caused him to miss the majority of this season. The Braves signed him in August, he even made three appearances between Rome and the GCL team, but the hope was that he could get his arm in shape and compete for a job in 2009. Guess that didn't work out.

In former Braves' minor leaguer news, left handed pitcher Dan Smith was signed to a minor league contract by the Orioles. Smith seemed to be one of the more promising marginal prospects in the system, he helped Richmond win their championship in 2007 and was (I think) Mississippi's opening day starter in 2008. But attitude problems led to his release and he spent the year toiling in the independent leagues. I saw him pitch for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs a few times in August and he look awful, nothing like he had with the Braves. I live in Norfolk, where the Orioles' AAA team is, so it will be interesting to see if he makes the team and returns to form.

Things I'd Rather Do Than Read Another Rosterbatory Fantasy Post:

cbwilk — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:24:37 -0000

10. Watch a compilation video of every check swing strikeout from Jeff Blauser’s career. (On the plus side, it would take until the beginning of Spring Training to watch the whole thing.)

9. Live in the North.

8. Watch a game on TV called by a tandem of Joe Morgan, John Miller, Keith Hernandez, Ron Darling, and Tim McCarver.

7. Catch a glimpse of Dennis Dixon on the Steelers sideline and wonder how good he could have been at baseball.

6. Run into the one actual Marlins fan in existence and hear about how they won more World Series rings during The Streak than the Braves did.

5. Mention Jeff Francoeur around a bunch of 14 year old girls in Atlanta.

4. Mention Javy Lopez around a bunch of 28 year old women in Atlanta.

3. Root for the Phillies

2. Watch a Sex In The City marathon on TBS.

And the number one thing I’d rather do than read another rosturbatory fantasy post:

1. Root for the Mets. Seriously, root for the Mets. I’d rather do that. Seriously.

Braves re-sign some minor league free agents.

cbwilk — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:53:13 -0000

The Braves re-signed some of their own minor league free agents, right handed pitcher Moises Hernandez, catchers JC Boscan and Jose Camarena, and outfielders Joe Borchard and Reid Gorecki.

Nobody very surprising here. Hernandez, Seattle's Felix's older brother who was traded from the Orioles for Leo Mazzone, missed all of 08 after arm surgery, I think Tommy John. He was a pretty impressive pitcher before the injury so hopefully he cam come back strong.

Boscan has had a long career as a backup catcher, all but a few of those years in the Braves system, and Camarena has been with the Braves as a part time starter on teams with no real catching prospect. Likely one of these guys will back up Tyler Flowers at AA and the other with back up a better player yet to be signed at AAA.

And we all know Borchard played pretty well during spring training, but got hurt and didn't get a chance to show the Braves whether he could help at the major league level or not. Gorecki joined Mississippi partway through the year after some injuries and despite some injuries of his own was a solid veteran presence. He'll get a chance to earn a AAA job, though I think he's more of a AA player.

Braves resign Jerome Gamble

cbwilk — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 16:23:02 -0000

The Braves resigned the first of their minor league free agents, pitcher Jerome Gamble. Gamble is somewhat of a veteran minor leaguer, he'll be 29 next season, though he hasn't spent much time at AAA. He wasn't completely effective for Richmond this year, but he was decent for Mississippi, especially out of the bullpen. He did however provide a veteran presence in the clubhouse, particularly for Deunte Heath. He'll come into spring training competing for a job with Gwinnett.

In another move, the Braves officially releases Jonathan Schuerholz, which is a little bit of a curious move, considering he hasn't played since August of 2007 and actually spent the second half of this season as a roving infield coach for the Braves.

And in other minor league related news, Richmond's hitting coach and former Atlanta Braves Chris Chambliss won't be back with the organization, as the Chicago White Sox hired him to manage their AAA team, the Charlotte Knights. This might actually end up being good news for Schuerholz, who was hoping that a full time position within the organization would open up for 2009. Well, one's open.

Trading Prospects Might Be Worth It.

cbwilk — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 06:16:20 -0000

With all of the talk over the possible Jake Peavy trade, and other possible trades, there has been a discussion about the value of hanging on to prospects versus the value of trading them for established major leaguers. A little while back someone (I’m sorry, I can’t remember who) showed how players from our last few prospect lists hadn’t turned out so hot. I saw all my old Baseball America Prospect Handbooks sitting in my room and thought I’d take a look a little further back.

2001 (ranked 5th overall system in baseball):

1. SS Wilson Betemit, I guess he’s a decent Major Leaguer, but not what he was supposed to be.

2. P Matt McClendon, never got out of AA, currently working to be in the FBI.

3. 2B Marcus Giles, we all know about him.

4. P Matt Belisle, has shown the ability to play in the Majors, but is pretty inconsistent.

5. P Jason Marquis, kind of like Belisle except he gets paid an insanely high salary.

6. P Billy Sylvester, pretty sure he got hurt, never made it out of AA

7. P Adam Wainwright, up and coming talent for the Cardinals, did net a career year out of JD Drew for the Braves.

8. 3B Wes Helms, has bounced around the Majors, hasn’t really starred except for one season in Milwakee.

9. PChristian Parra, got hurt and was never heard from again.

10. P Scott Sobkowiak, same as Parra

Others of note: 11. P Horacio Ramirez, 15. P Tim Spooneybarger, 17. OF George Lombard, 18. P Damian Moss, 19. P Zach Miner, 21. 3B Scott Thorman, 25. Kelly Johnson, 28. Jung Bong, 29. Chris Waters

2002 (ranked 7th overall):

1. SS Wilson Betemit, see above.

2. P Adam Wainwright, see above.

3. SS Kelly Johnson, now Atlanta’s second baseman and possible trade bait.

4. P Brett Evert, never made it out of AA, last I heard was pitching AA for the Brewers.

5. OF Carlos Duran, never lived up to his potential, last I saw was playing High A for the Orioles.

6. P Matt Belisle, see above.

7. P Zach Miner, traded to the Tigers, working on becoming a valuable part of their pitching staff.

8. P Gonzalo Lopez, still with the Braves, keeps getting hurt and suspended, likely to be let go this offseason.

9. P Bubba Nelson, traded to Reds for Reitsma, still kicking around AAA, but has never reached his potential.

10. P Jung Bong, had one effective season for Braves, then traded to Reds for Reitsma. Didn’t do much else, but did win a gold medal for Korea this year.

Others of note: 11. P Tim Spooneybarger, 15. P Kyle Davies, 17. P Trey Hodges, 19. OF Ryan Langerhans, 21. P Macay McBride 22. P Chris Waters, 23. 3B Andy Marte

2003 (ranked 2nd overall):

1. P Adam Wainwright, see above.

2. SS Wilson Betemit, see above.

3. 3B Andy Marte, traded for Edgar Renteria who turned into Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez, has never reached his potential despite numerous chances with Cleveland.

4. P Bubba Nelson, see above.

5. P Macay McBride, pretty inconsistent with the Braves, traded for Wil Ledezma who turned into Royce Ring, both have also been inconsistent.

6. OF Jeff Francouer, looked like he was going to be a true Braves star, but 2008 has left many doubtful.

7. OF Carlos Duran, see above.

8. 1B Scott Thorman, never found any success in Atlanta and likely to leave as a minor league free agent.

9. P Brett Evert, see above.

10. P Gonzalo Lopes, see above.

Others of note: 11. P Horacio Ramirez, 12. SS Kelly Johnson, 13. 1B Adam LaRoche, 15. P Zach Miner, 16. P Jung Bong, 17. OF Gregor Blanco, 18. P Dan Meyer, 19. P Trey Hodges, 20. OF Ryan Langerhans, 21. P Anthony Lerew, 22. P Blaine Boyer, 24. P Chris Waters, 28. C Brian McCann, 29. P Matt Belisle

(I think the other poster, again sorry I can’t remember who it was, may have covered 2004 and 2005, but here they are anyway.)

2004 (ranked 4th overall):

1. 3B Andy Marte, see above.

2. OF Jeff Francoeur, see above.

3. P Bubba Nelson, see above.

4. P Dan Meyer, pitched a few games for the Braves, traded for Tim Hudson and almost immediately blew his arm out, hasn’t been heard from since.

5. 1B Adam LaRoche, played a few solid years for the Braves and was traded for Mike Gonzalez. Still a starter for the Pirates.

6. P Macay McBride, see above.

7. C Brian McCann, come on, he’s Heap.

8. P Kyle Davies, was never consistent for the Braves and hasn’t been any more so for the Royals.

9. P Anthony Lerew, seemed to be on the verge, but succumbed to Tommy John surgery, may have lost his chance with the Braves.

10. SS Kelly Johnson, see above.

Others of note: 11. P Jose Capellan, 12. 3B Wilson Betemit, 13. OF Gregor Blanco, 16. P Blaine Boyer, 18. 1B Scott Thorman, 19. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 22. P Jo Jo Reyes, 23. P Chuck James, 24. C Brayan Pena, 25. OF Ryan Langerhans, 27. P Zach Miner, 28. P Charlie Morton

2005 (ranked 5th overall)

1. OF Jeff Francoeur, see above.

2. 3B Andy Marte, see above.

3. C Brian McCann, see above.

4. P Kyle Davies, see above.

5. P Anthony Lerew, see above.

6. P Jake Stevens, wildly inconsistent, already out of baseball.

7. SS Luis Hernandez, lost on waivers to the Orioles where he faltered as their starting shortstop.

8. OF Kelly Johnson, see above.

9. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, played a little for the Braves before being send to Tex in the Tex package, still plenty of potential but the questions about his true ability are becoming more frequent.

10. P Blaine Boyer, has been a part of the Atlanta bullpen several years, waffles between dominance and mediocrity, tends to get overpitched.

Others of note: 11. P Jose Ascanio, 12. 1B Scott Thorman, 13. P Roman Colon, 14. OF Ryan Langerhans, 15. 3B/SS Wilson Betemit, 16. P Macay McBride, 17. SS TJ Pena, 18. P Charlie Morton, 20. P Chuck James, 22. OF Brandon Jones, 24. OF Gregor Blanco, 26. P Zach Miner, 28. 2B Martin Prado

So what we get out of this ridiculously long list is that there are very few guys over the course of five years who are important major leaguers. Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson, and Adam Wainwright are the best, and Jeff Francoeur, Marcus Giles, and Wilson Betemit have all had varying levels of extended success in the Majors. There are still some young players who could turn things around, but what it really all amounts to is that there is one player you absolutely wouldn’t want to trade out of all these guys, Brian McCann, and a few that you might have felt bad about trading.

I’m as huge a fan of the minor leagues and prospects as anyone, but the results seem to bear out that you’ve got a better chance of getting a big return on a guy who’s already established himself in the Major Leagues.

BA Mock Draft

cbwilk — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 18:51:05 -0000

I know we had a big discussion about the draft a while back, but I picked up the new copy of Baseball America and they had their first mock draft for 2009. They had the Braves picking HS lefty Matt Purke. Looking at a few of the names we mentioned, they had SS Grant Green going 2nd to Seattle, OF Donovan Tate going 6th to San Fransisco, and P Aaron Crow going 8th to Cincinatti.

One thing I did think was interesting is that the Nationals pick 1st and 10th. For a team that pretty much only takes college players in the first round they could get some help at the big league level quick.

DC Passes Away

cbwilk — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:51:35 -0000

I just heard that longtime Braves minor league coach Bruce Dal Canton has passed away. I don't know any details, but he had been sick for the majority of this season. Anyone who's ever met DC knows what a truly great individual he is and what a major loss this is for the Braves and for baseball as a whole. DC had been Myrtle Beach's pitching coach for the last ten years and had a major role in developing the Braves' young pitchers.

While hearing this sad news I also found out that another of the Braves' longtime minor league coaches, Bill Fischer, passed away back in August. Fish was one of the most respected coaches in the minor leagues and a World War II veteran. He had been working with the Rays and Royals the last few years.