Sitting in section C333 of the Arlington Jerry World stadium and then re-watching the Baylor replay. I was struck by the up and down nature of this season. Fellow bloggers you should worry that the same  non precision executing team which played aTm shows up -  as it collects its Bowl swag and  limps home to Lubbock. I am not predicting a poorly played game. But sometimes the Raiders worry me.

 Leach talks about consistency. I think that’s about right.  Our much admired Raiders will play a 13th game this season. That’s a good thing. So let’s look for a bit of a surge, a coming out party if you will or a plain old beat down versus our esteemed Michigan State Bowl opponent.  And yes  the Spartans def coordinator  will undoubtedly  copy the Al Groh coached Cavaliers  @  the 07 Gator Bowl, or  the Bo Pelini Neb,  2008 Lubbock  game plans.  Heck, Even Baylor tried to run a pass heavy version of keep away.  Briles and his staff just didn’t count on the 3 x fumbles forced by the Tech defense and a stiff red zone defense. Which included a interception by a guy who played two snaps.  The Big 10 opponent, Michigan State -  will use this game plan - you  can bet on it  baby. We will see 3 - 5 time consuming drives consisting of 3 yards and cloud of dust- on first and third downs, and a 4 yard pass to keep the clock rolling. While the opponents defense  runs a series of zone blitzes in order to get "Nick"  to start getting happy feet. All designed to get "Nick" to not be able to make his 3rd read that is routinely open. I saw at least 4 of the 18 misses by – he who is named Nick -  where the 3rd receiver was open but not thrown too.  BTW we punted 5 times  or turned the ball over and then attempted to converted 3 of 5  4th downs vs.  Baylor? One does not count because it was fake FG and that was cool. Trying to win and daring greatly is neat.

Looking at Michigan State offense how do I put this -  it is okay? Might be too tepid a word but they lost to 5 opponents by an average of 8 points or less. In fact the only game they lost where they could not score enough to keep up was Penn State losing by 28. In that game the Nittany Lions exploded for 4  x scores in the 3rd period.  Versus Wisconsin, Minnesota, Central Michigan, Iowa and an average Notre Dame team – in all these games they had the chance to draw even or win.  Much as I hate to quote a media  tool – Gary Danielson – he is right. It’s not about team strength versus strength it’s more likely how the other hand matches up.  So it is really the Tech defense versus the Michigan state offense. Can they stop a pass heavy attack with a balanced  power running  game?  They throw about 2/3rds of the time, averaging 36 plus passes and 24 rushes a game. It strikes me that these guys look like Minnesota in the Insight Bowl and not just because they are in the Big 10. Now what I don’t think we have to worry about is the Tech Special teams. Excellent senior long snapper- Austin Burns, excellent holder Austin Zouzalik -  nice consistent kicker  in Matt Williams and a competent punter / kicker combo of  Ryan Erxleben and  Donnie Carona. I think we can count on D. Carona getting 2 tackles in this one and 4- 5 touchbacks. No out of bounds kick offs please. Minimum return game for the team in green. Who btw averages over 26 yards per return.

The fact that people we play in bowl matcg ups have a lot more time to prepare for the head pirates style of play gives them what I call a total derailing advantage. There are no Leach play calling tendencies that are not uncovered and packages are developed which are designed to stymie /counter / stuff whatever spread the field advantage a raider offense has. Pat Narduzzi the MSU def coord is a very fine coach.  The scout team for  MSU has a sophomore QB throwing all over the place and a junior running back acting as Baron Batch.. so you see a predictable pattern develops. Tech is forced into 3 and outs, lots of Raider punts and lots of back and forth jockeying with the MSU return and or kick teams. Followed by lots of Raider short outlet dump off completions by Tech QB "Nick" to the RB’s for little gain because those extra DB’s are tackling in space and doing it very well.  After Erlexben punts  - we get to see  lots of Spartan short outlet dump off completions  by QB  Kirk Cousins whose receivers stay inbounds after getting 7(+) yards. Here’s your scouting observation does MSU have any preseason All American Offensive linemen? Because that’s who they run Larry Caper behind.  I worry he gets close to a 100 yards on the Tech front 7.  Houston Nutt had the most talented bunch of the three latest bowl games opponents. The only reason the 08 Cotton Bowl wasn’t a 21 plus point blowout was Darcel McBaths TD interception.  The Raider offense was streaky and off rhythm the whole game. Mostly because the Ole miss defense was plastering the Raider tendencies and swatting at G. Harrell with D linemen. Techs last 13 points scored were essentially in 4th quarter garbage time with no chance to actually challenge the Rebels. Let the Raiders  complete the 6 -7 yard pass  try to keep the receiver in bounds or let the Raider RB take the shovel pass run for a 15 yards gain, just keep him in bounds,  just keep the clock running .

So what should we worry about versus a Big 10 opponent like Michigan State ?  A flip in tendencies 40 plus rushes and 20 plus passes.  Maybe. The QB draw, the trap play ala aTm. Rewind the MSU offense do it again. And our offensive counter is to up the total number of rushes by the Tech RB force their defense to play close to line of scrimmage and then dissect the MSU defense with the slant over the middle at the  (-)10 to 20 yard range. Coach Dantonio will anticipate this very strategy too.

"In terms of disappointment, last year's seniors set the bar for us," MSU coach Mark Dantonio said after Saturday's 42-14 home blowout loss to Penn State. "We were a 9-3 football team. They set the bar. The bar was set. And we didn't measure up to that bar."

 Point, counter point. It would surprise me if this game takes much over 3 hours even with television time outs. Never mind the tv advertising will push it out to 3 hour 45 minute plus that is guaranteed.

I worry "Nick" throws three interceptions. I would be happy with his obligatory  1 x  pick per game. Oh and please do it early in the game. Before I have to buy 2 x more beers for my brother. It’s a second quarter thing folks. You know beer is rented not purchased.

I worry we give up 3 x sacks inside the MSU Red Zone. I am very uncomfortable with the 30 sacks allowed. Injuries got it.  Suspensions got it. Cohesion and position switches got it. Fellow  DTNers that’s not Tech football. And we have the same scenario shaping up for next year with 3 x seniors graduating one being the center. Ouch! I will stop worrying about this unit when they stone Mr.  Greg Jones, the MSU linebacker, leading tackler, who has 9 sacks and 62 solo tackles. And do it 2 x plays in a row Raiders.

I worry Tech only runs back 3 x kicks for scores against MSU. Eric Stephens is money. I for one would really like to see the game changer return very quickly. Seriously after an over 40 yard FG by M. Williams in Arlington and considering it’s an indoors venue  i.e. without wind-  I still worry we have to kick 3  x FG’s. I would like to see multiple TDs by any means and preferably before the end of the 3rd quarter. Who else thinks likewise? The MSU team defense gave up 115 points in the 4th quarter this season as far as points allowed it’s their worst period.

I am not worrying about the  pass rush. Brandon  Sharpe, Rajon Henley and Daniel Howard will get 4.5 sacks between the three seniors.   Maybe it’s a hunch but the Raiders are really going to need them too. I keep remembering the Minnesota tight end Jack Simmons  7  x  receptions /138 yards/ 1 TD.  Who replaced the All American tight end (forget his name) and winner of the Mackey award in 2006. Simmons the backup played lights out versus A. Huffman, M. Bunton  and the other  Tech CB’s through 5/8th’s of the Insight bowl.. does this sound familiar with  the player suspensions on MSU ‘s part?

"STAR WATCH: WR Keshawn Martin had a 71-yard touchdown pass from backup QB Keith Nichol late in the Penn State game, which meant nothing in terms of the game, but it continued Martin's torrid pace. It was his fourth touchdown of 70 or more yards this season, and it gives him 1,213 all-purpose yards."

I want to stop worrying that the Raider running game won’t get 25 x touches and gain 100 plus yards. It’s about breaking tendencies and taking what they give the offense. CPT  Leach can be counted on to confound us sideline pundits if nothing else. In other words if like versus Kansas there are no LB’s on the field it’s going to be a rushing attempt. We hope.

The last rant: bye week or bowl month prep breaks. Leach made the team show up in pads after the Baylor game on Sunday .This is encouraging. However… from  an earlier write up – below:

  I.e. the raiders have a silly weak link in the team prep statistic or put another way a tendency. They lose the edge by breaking the preparation discipline. The opposition plays a big role they are preparing to halt our preferred play selection but it’s deeper than that. In that the Raiders show up sloppy for the first half of a game which has any aberration, any change or any disruption in the practice rhythm. I don’t know maybe it’s too much time off or some such distraction. Seem to throws the practice and preparation rhythm out of joint. Examples include the 06 Cotton bowl, 07 Colorado, 08 Gator bowl, the afore mentioned thrashing in Norman 08.  -  Late season note the Raiders didn’t look real great against OSU in 09 after a bye week. (sad face)

I am ready for criticism for sticking a needle in the Captain but here it is. In last year’s finale the team looked like they needed another week of practice. I am not  a Coach. But I can count. Leach, Harrell and Crabtree picked up a few frequent flier miles before the Cotton Bowl.  Practice sessions are cumulative. Let the hate mail fly.

"Michigan State's 2009 season still has a bowl game left, likely the Alamo in San Antonio or the Insight in Tempe, Ariz. It can already safely be said, though, that this season is a disappointment."

Any statement by a team which portends that woe is me  -  ie  we haven't got a chance is a worry.

I worry the Jerry world parking will make me poor.  Does anyone know what Island in the Bahamas is living off the revenue generated by the cost of parking in the Pokes p-lot?

I worry Blake Sezmanski or Nick Florence of the Bears will throw very, very well.  Actually the Carlos Mainord and Brian Mitchell coached secondary is likely to beak up 7 – 9 passes. Goal 4 picks. 1 for a score. As a unit which was mistrusted at the beginning of the season - based on the 5 senior safeties graduating – but over the last 4 games they have gotten steadily more aggressive. The thing which really helps these D backs is not being the leading tacklers. Props to the D line  for stripping away blockers and allowing the Linebackers to tackle. It’s going to be strength of the team in 2010 folks. There is no doubt the Raider def linemen will be out to prove a point in this game. OU had a dinged up offensive line but they are still a better unit than what the Bears can field. The key is deflating them emotionally and stepping on their throat, by stifling their inside trap and short flare screen game. Clog up the offensive tackles so they can’t pull and hit a Tech linebacker.

The Baylor defense is actually pretty good.  Sure tacklers and good run stuffers. Jason Lamb is a first rate linemen. Jordan Lake is a good a hitter as any All American in the Big 12 and Joe Pawelek is literally all over the field.  The worry is they play out of their minds. They did last year and knocked Graham H around, put Michael Crabtree in a boot before halftime and if you think about it, they actually ruined 2 games for us.  Yeah I know they caught us at precisely the right moment after OU drubbed and skull dragged us. (Just as a momentary gloat the last quarter of last Saturdays OU game was the best 15 minutes of Raider football I have had all season.)  Back to the Bears - because Crabtree was slowed we lost the tinniest bit of skill player advantage we had going into the Cotton Bowl. What DTNer doesn’t think Crabman not falling down in the 2nd quarter and allowing an Ole Miss interception wouldn’t have taken at least 7 points off the board? So l look at the Bears as the ultimate spoilers. Yeah it’s their Bowl. They have a lot of DFW alum’s and heck even Grant Teaff might start stalking the sidelines to stir up evil karma.  Be glad the Big 12 doesn’t allow schools to ship live Mascots around. Though that female black bear they have is pretty out of shape and has penchant for marshmallows. Still those claws…

 The Bears offense is a lot like ours same type scheme which is unsurprising as Art Briles worked for Mike Leach. He’s got several really fast receivers and running backs. I think they may have even more problems at Offensive line than we do.  Listening to the ATM game via Sirius radio the Bears got  into the Aggie red zone 4 x times - I think - and came away with 3 points? Guess I could go look at b-guts website and confirm that, but it doesn’t matter that much to me to give him a hit. He’s been an even more annoying gad fly ever since he refused to move Tech up in the polls after his own logic was pointed out as terminally homered. Flawed too. So the thing about the Bears offense is just this they are overdue for a big game. Maybe they got it at Mizzou. The Raider defenders need a real case of the jaws to stomp them early. With this Bear O line on the field a bull rush and contain strategy is required to very quickly force multiple 3 and outs. Last weeks first quarter sparring seems to be the norm. Leach's offense has done this against KU, OSU and now the Sooners.  Starting fast as a Raider offense can help but I believe that if the Raiders stay patient they can score 3 - 5 time in the first half. Let’s not wait to the 4th quarter to put up multiple scoring drives. I am travelling to my second game of the year and I don’t want anything resembling a nail biter. Detron Lewis missed or dropped at least 2 passes and was pretty much a decoy all game. But against the Bears I don’t worry about him. As long as "Nick" stays upright someone new in the receiver rotation will get the ball for big numbers. The Raider O line looks to be starting to dominate. Kind of like the end of 07 momentum  seems to be building behind this unit.

Last week I worried that we would have a special teams meltdown. Now not so much. In fact the Special teamers have been very stout over the last 4 games of the season. KU, OSU and OU all have excellent midsized, fast guys who can block and tackle while running and their returners are national leaders. Yet none have stung this Eric Russell coached unit. At least they have not stung them with a game changer. Look for the Raiders to get solid kicker  and or specialist play and a scoring return on the Bears. Eric Stephens and Austin Zouzalik are overdue and it’s something I‘d really like to  be right about just once this year. Also it would give who ever we are playing in whatever Bowl something more to worry about.

I worry the Sooners defensive linemen will have a monster day against the Tech O line. In reality the thing that B. Venable is most likely to try is taking away the passing lanes and coaching up the OU D linemen to get their hands up. When they are not chasing him around. A deflection is as good as a tackle for a loss. It would alleviate some of my worries if the Tech running backs punish the Sooner defense, getting the obligatory 100 yards rushing to "balance" the offense.Your guess is as good as mine as to when the 09  Tech  O line unit "gels". Last weeks effort by the O line was encouraging not definitive but encouraging.

I worry the Tech receivers will for the second week in row forget how to catch balls that hit them in the hands. This despite a QB who throws nearly 50 x times a game on average. I’d be interested to see how may Tech receivers complain to the trainers about jammed and bruised fingers after a game. This worry goes to addressing the fan perception of touch on passes. This year's Sooner secondary might be good but they aren’t as good as the texas secondary so if any area has the potential to put up big numbers it’s the passing attack for the Raiders. Although the OU offense hasn’t rushed well in away games it glaringly obvious the Ruffindefense is going to see a lot blast blocking for D. Murray and his  Sooner comrades. I would go so far as to say OU needs over 150  plus yards on the ground to beat the Raiders.

 I worry the place kicker, kick off specialist and punter for Texas Tech will  all get dumped by their FLG’s. This week. This causes them to lose their focus and collectively fail to connect with the ball properly and  average kick yardage,  efficiency etc suffers. Actually I expect the special teams play to be a big plus for the Raiders.

 I worry the Sooner band will smuggle edged weapons into Jones AT & T stadium and start a prison style riot during half time. Now if the Goin’ band brings in its quota of zip guns and hot pistols we’ll be okay.   I am betting on the Goin’  Band in that fight.

I worry our third string QB is the leading rusher as opposed to a real running back like H. Jeffers  or Sean Byrnes.  Snort, snort  .. just based on size it would be vaguely amusing to see the utter look of surprise if a Raider O linemen suddenly lined up as a running back  for  the Raider Goal line  offensive formation. On serious note the lack of protection for the raider QB’s has got to be addressed. A scheme which minimizes pressure on the semi mobile folks we have slinging the ball would seem to me to be a key element to winning this game. Just saying we can’t take 5 x sacks  and expect to overpower these guys.

I worry that the Raiders will hang 50 points on the Sooners and cause them to not be Bowl eligible. Not. I can only think of one Coach in recent memory who turned down a Bowl bid - Lou Holtz of Notre Dame. Anybody know of another example?  Actually it’s pretty far-fetched to see any one side of a Bob Stoops coached team meltdown.  Solid and talented really describes them and a down year be damned. Their fan base travels well and eats - a lot - at fancy restaurants so most Bowl committees would leap at an opportunity to invite / host them in their respective cities.

I worry that Art Briles will replace Bob Stoops when he goes to Notre Dame on January 4th2010. Coaches never tell the truth about future jobs and let’s face it ND is one of the few schools who can pay more than OU while buying out another Coaches contract.

First thing to worry about is the OSU fan base apparently doesn’t have an SB Nation website.  I find that curious in the first place and worrying in the second?? Like no Cowboy fans around this neighborhood  WTF?

For  a while when Tech was down and we didn’t play them I was fan of theirs  - Barry Sanders,Thurman Thomas and other great running backs etc etc. Now that they are one of the up and comers like us seeking to dethrone OU, ut and or sometimes NU, now not so much.  I have seen 6 out of the 9 games they’ve played and it’s been in a word impressive.

   I worry our O line won’t be able to whip the OSU def line. Another game and another Raider combination of blockers. If ever we need a senior like S. Byrnes to show out and lead this unit it is this game. Minimize pressure on the Tech QB folks. OSU Def Coordinator is readying a pin your ears back pass rush on T. Potts et al.

Pokes are playing solid defense and pretty neat special teams’ execution. Most worrying is the dreaded balance of the run and pass combo. Its kind of funny to me as a fan of a team led by a nonconformist, trend setter to watch Mike Gundy cling like a zealot to old school principles of playing the game. IE run first.  He is definitely a product of Coach Pat Jones and others whom he grew up under. Only one funny comment about his style – he must be hell to have in the house. Just think about it everything must be balanced.  Big cans opposite little cans in the cabinets. Furniture equidistant from the walls. Grass mowed in a single direction with no overlap. Conformity. Whew. I will give this to Mike Gundy he doesn’t play around with people who can’t stay on the straight and narrow as it concerns team rules. Pelini and Leach are like minded. Good on you fellows.

The team he coaches though is downright good. I was impressed how they jumped up off the mat after being slugged by Houston. We found out about those Cougars didn’t we?  And with the exception of the ut game OSU executes very good football on all three sides of the ball. Early in the year I pooh poohed their defensive scheme. Not so much today. They had trouble with Houston and ut’ s passing game but so did the Raiders secondary .  

It’s the running attack the Raiders defense must worry about. Mr. K. Toston and Z. Robinson are fast and the linemen are committed to run blocking. If the front 4 of the Raider D line doesn’t knock somebody’s wang in the dirt from the get go it’s going to be a brawl. Clogging up the middle and funneling the runners to the Raider line backers is job 1.

Fan Participation.  For the Ut game the OSU athletic admin put up a series of white plastic tarp barriers to keep the fans away from the horn bench. I guess I should worry about small liquor bottles flying thru the air. I wonder if we get the same treatment or that’s just a #2 team in the nation amenity?  I remember Antonio Huffman saying an OSU fan reached over and popped him on the helmet during a game. Just so someone says it  Boone  P.  stadium - it’s a noisy bellicose, crowded place and the Raider defense needs to take the crowd out of it.  5 x  OSU  turnovers forced by the Tech defenders would just about do it.

Who starts? Why worry ? After the  refreshing and over blown news that Sticks was "healthy" I quickly came back down to earth. It just doesn’t matter.  By that I mean it’s a position on the unit, the other 10 players have to up their game to compensate for whatever intangible  "we"  fans feel isn’t on the field. So stop worrying about it. My feelings on the Tech QB situation is just this: manage the game. Check to the run.  No turnovers.  Week before last vs. the Jayhawks we had 3 serious mistakes on offense, the  3 x turnovers and 5 sacks. I don’t think we can give up 3 x QB miscues and win in Stillwater. Quoting a  previous post or just reinforcing an earlier thought /statement on this game the Raider offense needs to score on every possession. It’s a lot like the Austin game from that perspective.  I do think the Raider O line can win this fight. Just enough time delivered for the short pass, just enough screen execution and blocks on shovel passes to keep the OSU offense sidelined.  My worry is we start to press. The Raiders have enough talent on offense to score 35 to 50 points. As a unit they just need to make routine plays and score on every trip to the Red Zone. OSU is actually the tight ones. IMO. They are just trying to hold onto their top 25 ranking.  Seriously I think the Pokes are tight as a drum.

The special team play for the cowboys is pretty darned good. I  think they have 4 punts or kick offs returned for TDs.  3 plus x blocks?  And no dropped or muffed balls by returners ?  I worry we will need 4  x FG’s to win this one. It would alleviate my bad stomach if the Raider coverage teams could get the ball loose from the Cowboys once per half.

I worry we will see the Raiders field the same lackluster defense  that they showed against aTm, up in Stillwater. I would love to see the Raider defense which corked Nebraska. Though it’s not likely for Coaches R. McNeil, C. Sadler or C. Mainord to be lackadaisical after all this is the scene of the crime from 2007. The place where L. Setencich lost his job. Folks usually remember where they got their asses beat. So no worries on defense fellow Raiders. Wreck em Baby!

We have experienced a very large tragedy here at FT Hood. No details are forth coming yet and I‘ll let the Public Affairs folks and the Chain of Command inform everyone.  The news guys will out eveything.

But on a human note the Families of these Soldiers and civilian workers here on Ft Hood need your prayers. Ft Hood and our neighboring communities deal with combat losses nearly every day.  But these senseless acts really do diminish us all. Thanks. Keep the faith. Send your prayers.