Bill Moos will be a guest speaker at the Pullman Kiwanis meeting at Noon this Thursday February 10th.  If you would like me to ask a question for you please say so in the comments.

I assume that he will be giving a short presentation about the upcoming facility upgrades.  This won't be a typical presentation calling for donations, it should be purely informational.  It will probably be just like a 'State of the Athletic Department' address.

The way I saw it, this game clearly had four distinct parts to it.

Part One lasted for about the first seven minutes of the first half.  Both teams were running a 2-3 zone defense and not many shots were going down on either end.  The Cougars had a little more shots fall, so they eventually had an early lead.

Part Two is where the Cougars shots really started to fall.  By analyzing the game flow graph.  You can see that this is where the Cougars pulled away in the first half.  Everything was running well on offense.  They were getting good penetration off the dribble and moving the ball nicely.  It looked like this game might be a blowout.  But...

Part Three is when Oregon State began running their half court trap.  It happened at about a score of 34-20 or 41-22... I can't remember.  But the key was that Oregon started doing it when they fell way behind by double digits.  This trap almost spelled doom for the Cougars...

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Adam Conley took the hill for his second game as a starter this season.  Last week he finished the sweep of the Cal Golden Bears.  This week he was called upon in a series finale yet again, but this time to round-off the third and final rubber match game of the series between WSU and Stanford at the Sunken Diamond in Stanford, California.

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In 1999, TEN players were taken in the top 63 picks from the state of Washington.  Three of those players were from Moses Lake High School, my alma mater, so this article was of particular interest to me.  Never again will we probably ever see that many baseball players go so high in the draft from the state of Washington.  If you weren't around to see any of those players play, you might say that Washington may have gotten over-hyped a bit, but I'm sure many first-hand witnesses of this talent would beg to differ.  I was only ten at the time, but I remember getting updates during class about when the Moses Lake High School players had been drafted.

How are all of these players doing right now?  Well, you can read the article I'm referring to in order to find out.  Basically, only one player from the draft, Ryan Doumit, has made it big.  Although he is injured at the moment with a broken hand bone, he recently signed a 3 yr $11.5 million deal with the Pirates.  My father, who was head coach at Moses Lake HS for about six years in the early '90s (just before the three draftees entered high school), insists that Doumit probably never would have been drafted that high if it weren't for all the hype behind B.J. Garbe and Jason Cooper.  B.J. Garbe was drafted 5th overall in '99 and he was the most highly taughted player in Washington that year.  The scouts never would have come to Moses Lake if it weren't for Garbe and Cooper, and therefore Doumit's talents would have gone unnoticed.

But as you can see, the most important aspect of where you get drafted is only the money, because anyone can make it to the big leagues if they perform well enough, and even the brightest young talents can falter or become injured; which happens more often than not.  And while I was on the topic of money:  B.J. Garbe was given a $2.75 million signing bonus!  And this was in 1999 people!  If my memory serves me correctly, Doumit's signing bonus just barely cleared six figures.  (chum change... chum change...)

Why was Doumit able to make it to the majors?  Well, a lot can be said for the position he plays: Catcher.  If you can play catcher and hit well, you have a very good chance of rising up the ranks and into the Majors.  Also, as with many of the opportunities that arise for minor leaguers to make it to the bigs, there has to be an open spot to fill, and the Pirates have been very thin at the Catcher position for a number of years.

Doumit has had quite a number of injuries the past few seasons, yet somehow the Pirates had enough faith in him to sign him for 3 years.  (That probably had to do a lot with the fact that he batted .318 with 71 Runs, 69 RBIs, and 15 HRs in just 431 atbats last season).  I really hope he can put his injuries behind him and wind up with a solid MLB career.

Washington State's RPI is very disappointing this year.  But why?

The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is comprised of a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%).

RPI is only a measure of a team's strength of schedule and the ability of the team to create a winning or losing record with that schedule.

Take this situation as an example:

Say that the Cougars only had two games on their schedule.  UCLA and Mississippi Valley State.

In scenario one, WSU loses to UCLA and beats MVSU.

In scenario two, WSU beats UCLA and loses to MVSU.

(both of these games happen at neutral courts)

From my understanding, WSU would have the exact same RPI in each of these scenarios. 

WSU's winning percentage would be the same (.500).  The winning percentage of WSU's opponents would be the same (more or less, one win would be taken from one opponent and given to another, but it amounts to the same numbers if both opponents played the same number of games in a season).  Also, the winning percentage of those opponent's opponents does not change.

However, the actual outcome of each of these scenarios is drastically different in the non-mathematical eyes of an observer.  A win against UCLA has tournament implications while a win against MVSU does not mean anything (although we really don't know what a loss against MVSU would say because that just doesn't happen much.  My guess is a loss against MVSU says that half the team was injured and the other half decided to party the night before.)

But now let's get back to the question we are trying to answer:  Why is WSU's RPI so bad this year?

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My recap turned into a play-by-play at the end and many of you probably already saw the game for yourself... but that game inspired me to write, and you can just deal with that, or choose not to read it...

• The Cougars shot like they have all season in the first half.  Taylor was throwing up some what-are-you-thinking shots and everybody elses shots seemed to be rimming out.
• One of the refs had something against Nik.  The ref must not have been able to account for Nikola's unique driving methods.  We as Cougar fans have learned to hate and love and mostly hate when Nikola puts the ball to the floor.  However, in this game Nikola made two beautiful drives to the hoop.  One happened along the baseline and another occurred off of a pass-in drive inwhich Nikola started the top of the key.  In both instances, Nikola appeared to draw very little contact and he did not cause opposing players to fall to the ground.  Both shots were classic Koprivica and should have resulted in the four points that he earned.... yet... yet... the referees found fault with Koprivica.  TWICE.  And Tony Bennett and I are still waiting for an adequate explanation.
  
• One other beef I had with the refs was their goal-tending calls.  Capers made an incredible block and from my vantage point the ball appeared to have never completely left the Stanford player's hand let alone make it to the top of its arc before being swatted away.  The refs apparently didn't agree.
• Another goal-tending call was made on Aron.  He made a clean block in my opinion.  He tipped the ball against the glass, and then tipped it again against the rim.  I am not familiar with all the ways inwhich one can commit goal tending, perhaps one of those tips is a no-no in the books... maybe somebody else from our fan-base can give me a proper explanation on that...
• The mood was not good at half-time and our fans were booing the refs very loudly as they left the court with security escorts...

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• Taylor Rochestie had an good shooting night.  There were just two shots that I was disappointed to see him take.  Both of these shots were pull-up two pointers in transition from just inside the 3 point arc.
• One of these happened in the middle of the second half at a point where the cougars had a 3 on 2 opportunity.  I think a pass would have been a better option.  Make a drive, make something happen in that situation.  The cougars had just done that a couple possessions earlier and it had resulted in a nice 2pts in the paint for Klay Thompson.
• The other bad shot happened immediately after Christopher's dunkshot put the game just about out of reach with around a minute and a half left in the game.  Taylor brought the ball up the court and just shot the ball from the top of the key.  The shot was a brick off the front of the rim and resulted in a quick transition lay-in by California at the other end of the court.
• I can live with that... a little bit.
• The thing that really went wrong was that Baynes had an "off-night".  At least I hope it was an off'-night because if not, we're in for a long season.
• Baynes seemed like he was shooting as he did during his Freshman and Sophomore years again.  I don't know what the problem was, but the shots were not falling and you knew right when he shot the ball that he was taking the wrong approach.  Baynes' stat line was 2 for 9 with 8 points.  He got half of those points from free throws (4 for 6) and one of his made baskets was a dunk.  So basically, he was 1 for 8 on his shots from between about 3 and 6 feet from the basket.  This is not the Baynes we are use to seeing this year, and in my oppinion, this cost us the game more than anything.
• Tony did what Nuss and everybody here has been suggesting!  The first three designed plays of the game were all attempts to get Baynes the ball in the paint!  The problem was, that Baynes scuffed up all three of those shot attempts!
• I hope Baynes turns it around for Stanford.  Maybe playing against less experienced bigmen will make a difference with the absence of the Lopez Twins.
• Another Point:  WE HAD ZERO POINTS OFF THE BENCH.  (0-6 shooting overall)  We need help from our bench, Tony.  Get those guys in the game longer.  I agree with Grady.  Our team looked best out there when we had a mixture of the starting lineup and the bench players on the floor.
• If you look at the Four Factors to Winning chart from Grady's 8-6 post you will see that WSU outplayed Cal in every factor except for eFG %.  If three or four more of Baynes' shots go in the basket early on, maybe we win this game.

I am very disappointed with Taylor Rochestie's play against superior competition thus far this season.  Here is what Grady had to say about Rochestie's latest performance:

"Taylor will eventually get better. I'm starting to realize that maybe it's the guys on the floor that need to rally around Rochestie and make him better, not the other way around.  Last year, he had Kyle Weaver and Derrick Low to cool things off with a bucket or two. Now he doesn't. He gets frustrated and starts jacking up bad shots instead of settling into the offense. But Gonzaga deserves credit here as well. They took away the extra pass underneath. They kept us from moving the ball effectively and they limited Baynes' touches. I don't know what to say, other than we were dominated."

I think Taylor has developed a serious flaw in his game play and I think this sentence is the most relevant: 

"They took away the extra pass underneath."

Right now, when Taylor drives to the basket, or any other Cougar guard for that matter, their objective is always "Pass First".  You might say, "well that's not a problem, that's suppose to be the Cougar mentality"  And I am here to say that this IS a problem, because every time Taylor Rochestie puts the ball to the floor and attempts a drive to the basket EVERYBODY in the stadium knows that he's doing it to try and open up a passing lane and not actually making an attempt to take it to the hoop.  And this is certainly a problem, because if I know this, the opposing defense certainly must know it.

Gonzaga, was able to take away the extra pass underneath because they were looking for that extra pass and instead of defending against a potential shot, they spent their efforts cutting off the passing lanes.

There is a substantial difference between Rochestie and either Weaver or Low.  When Weaver or Low would make a cut to the basket, there was a good chance that they were going to come away with two points or atleast get to the line.  Dish-off passes to Baynes or a three point shooter in the corner were after thoughts that in the right situations became extraordinary.

Taylor is not the only guard that seems to be suffering from this passer syndrome.  Of all the guards, Klay Thompson seems to be the most comfortable with shooting the ball off the dribble.  However, late in the game tonight when it was already getting out of hand, Thompson had a clear outbreak of the passer syndrome.  Klay made a semi-decent drive to the inside of the key and a second Gonzaga defender crashed inside to defend him.  So what did Klay do?  He tried to dish-off a pass underneath to a non-existent Cougar player.  There were no Cougars anywhere near that pass!  Now, this incident may have been brought on by the stress and anxiety of playing in a blow-out game, and you do have to give the Gonzaga defense some credit.  But either way Klay needs to take a shot, draw a foul, or find some other way to make something out of that situation.

Back to Taylor. I really want to know what is going through Rochestie's head when he makes a drive.  If I were to guess, my intuition tells me that he is not thinking "Score, or Get to the Line".  He has got to be thinking that and needs to establish himself as a shooter or else defenses will read him all too well just like Gonzaga did tonight.  The passes have got to be an after thought, if not in Rochestie's mind, then in the minds of our opponents.