LaFrentz will be traded to Memphis

chemistrymajor — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 09:05:21 -0000

Why? Money.

Memphis is 8.5 mil under the cap, Portland is over. How much over depends on the Francis buy-out, but its probably between 9 and 10 mil.

Insurance will cover 80% of LaFrentz's salary. However, does not affect the luxury tax Portland will owe unless they trade LaFrentz without returning equal salary. If Memphis takes on 8.5 mil in salary from Portland, our luxury tax will be reduced by 8.5 mil.

Now you're saying, but Paul Allen is our owner. He doesn't care about money. I disagree. If Paul Allen can save 8.5 mil, he's going to save 8.5 mil -- as long as it does not hurt the Blazers.

So, here's the deal. We'd like to trade LaFrentz to Memphis straight up for a 2nd round pick or whatever as long as matching a salary does not come back.

Now you're saying; but LaFrentz makes 12.8 mil, not 8.5 mil. But you're forgetting that the season has already started. If LaFrentz is traded 1/3 of the way through the season, his impact on each team's salary is about 8.3 mil. Portland saves that much in luxury tax and Memphis only pays 20% of 8.3 mil.

Next question: Why would Memphis do us this 2 mil favor. Answer: They won't unless we throw in a player they like. That's the rub. What player on Portland's roster is expendable and would satisfy a Memphis need. I don't know, but I could see them liking Outlaw and Rodriquez for Conley-- maybe that's where the rumors come from.

I would offer them Frye and Rodriquez for Lowry. Why? I'm a Bayless fan and I suspect he's ready to play. Lowry is probably a better player than Conley today, but with a lower ceiling. Memphis is going nowhere, so Rodriquez's high ceiling is preferable to Lowry's career back-up ceiling. Conley IMO is no better than Rodriquez. He is a high risk, high reward player who will be unhappy sitting behind Blake and Bayless. On the other hand, Lowry IMO is a very solid back-up and a great insurance policy if Bayless is not ready. AND he plays defense.

Memphis ends up with two point guards with starting potential instead of just one.

Now I know that adding players creates a greater salary difference. Since Memphis can only take on an additional 8.5 mil in salary, this can be made up in one of two ways: Either wait further into the season when the impact on the salary cap will be less, or add another player or two -- like Warrick or Crittenton -- or both.

If they's take Diogu instead of Frye, I like that deal better. If they don't want to trade point guards, that's also better -- even if it means that Bayless has to wait longer to play.

The point is that LaFrentz to Memphis makes too much sense not to happen as long as Memphis is reasonable about what they get out of the deal. Heck, maybe they take LaFrentz plus 3 mil cash for a 2nd round pick. Who knows. But there's a deal here to be made.

SB Nation User Blog: chemistrymajor

LaFrentz will be traded to Memphis