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this was a response to marc stein over at espn which i couldn't post because I refuse to become an "insider" but maybe we here at celticsblog can make some noise about this?

dunk stats?  ok fine although they don't seem all that important.  Here is the stat issue I want addressed (and I have sent this argument to everybody I can think of) - could we please talk about rebounds as a percentage?  please?  I am a Celtics fan, and they do a couple of things that make perfect bball sense but which the current tracking of rebounds as gross numbers distorts.  First, they are usually among the best in defensive field goal percentage, in no small part by overloading the strong side and the pick and roll and as a result, often losing defensive rebounding position, so they give up a good percentage of defensive boards (see game 7 last year).  I would like to know from game to game what that percentage is.   And more importantly because they hold teams to such a low percentage shooting the other team has far more chances to grab offensive rebounds.  On the other end of the floor, they shoot a high percentage, and they have long maintained a discipline about not going for offensive boards, choosing instead to get back on d.  Whether one agrees with how they choose to play (and I would rather a) see teams shoot a little better against us if it meant we were better on the d-boards, and b) I am tempted to see what some of our guys could do on the offensive boards) it is clear that the only thing that really counts is the percentage of defensive boards controlled not the total numbers.  Keep in mind we see Celtics games where we shoot 50% and the other team shots like 35%, that is a huge difference that will greatly affect offensive rebounding numbers. The election is over, we have time and energy now, lets start a movement.  What did I do with those tea bags?

I am having a hard time seeing the lakers beating us.  I am not usually a homer in this particular way, so as objectively as possible, here is how I see it.  There are 3 ways that the lakers could win. 

1. Kobe goes off-the-charts-crazy in several games. 
2. They hit a bunch of threes. 
3. Gasol goes for something like 25, 15, and 7 every night while constantly being feed the ball.
ok 4. The c's turn the ball over and fail to protect the defensive boards.

But I don't see any of these things happening. 
1. This is pretty obvious.  Kobe is a great scorer but don't we have three guys that gaurd him about as well as anybody?  Isn't our whole defense and identity built, successfully, around not losing to the one man team?  Not too worried about 1.
2. The real battle is going to be between our interior D and their paint scoring/bigs and slashers.  I think we win that battle so the issue for them becomes can they find three point shooters and knock them down?  Maybe, but they aren't a good three point shooting team.  Does Artest's or Fisher's or Farmar's stroke really scare you?  It's possible but I like our odds.
3. This one would worry me if we weren't talking about Kobe and Phil.  I do think Gasol could cause some serious damage in the post, facing up, cutting, passing, and shooting.  If they really stuck to him and surrounded him with their best balance of defense and shooting this matchup could be deadly.  However, I watched Phil for years here in chicago, and as with Kobe, that kind of single minded feeding of the big man just isn't gonna happen.  Its not in their character.  If we stop Gasol a few times they will get away from it.
4. These were our biggest faults all season but in the playoffs this team gets it.  They give up their bodies now for the sake of possessions.  They control the boards and they don't over pass.  I have confidence in the guys on this front.
hmmm, one more, 5. If, somehow, Kobe could actually gaurd Rondo, that could be an issue.  Kobe just might have the guts to get right up on rondo and deny him that running start that everyone else allows.  If he can pull that off without the fisher/allen matchup killing them (and they don't relly need a point in the triangle and with kobe so vujacic or farmar could gaurd allen as well) then that could just maybe win them the series as well.  But does anybody think anybody can gaurd rondo at this point?

I don't know about y'all, but I see each of these possibilities both as the the Lakers best chances and as very unlikely.  They aren't suddenly going to start raining threes.  Kobe can't guard Rondo.  They aren't going to relentlessly feed Gasol.  We aren't going to commit turnovers and lose the defensive boards to that extent.  And Kobe might win several games but he is not going to get to that Michael Jordan/Jerry West level for the whole series against our defense. 

I feel pretty good about this.  Our bigs have to hold their own in the physicality matchup.  This takes away their biggest advantage and their best chance and, I expect, we win.

  
 

 

So I'm reading all this stuff about Lebron's awful game last night.  (and BTW - thank you Simmons, good read, really, but could you have done any better job of lighting a fire under Lebron's bum?  hmm?  You are not helping.)  And yea maybe the elbow hurts him, and yea Mike Brown ain't too bright - I mean who can't see the trouble that Varejo gives us, and yea, Lebron just didn't seem aggressive enough I guess, all true.  But is there any love at all out there for PP, and the Allenseses's defense, for our team defense?  Anything?   I have said for a long time that PP has a better chance guarding Lebron than pretty much anybody because he has that size and strength to deal with him, and since Lebron has no post game, smaller guys like the Allenseses, can, with help stay under him and they did that wonderfully last night.  If he hits a few of those bombs then today's headlines and maybe the results are different, but isn't that the point?  Didn't Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Tony Allen, along with the help make it a lot easier for Lebron to jack up those shots and a lot harder for him to drive and dish and finish?  Shouldn't the C's defense, two years removed from being one of the best defenses of all time, get some little bit of credit for this thing?

Rebounding stats need to be kept and talked about on a percentage basis. 

Can we start a movement?  Do we have the connections to get this done?

Look, I am no stats geek but consider the following.  First, rebounding is the C's biggest issue.  Securing the defensive boards is going to go a long way to determining the chance this team has to win the whole thing.  If they can secure those boards then their defense and their offense are good enough, I think, to compete with anyone.  Also, the C's do not go after offensive rebounds.  This is intentional.  They prefer to concede the low percentage chance for offensive boards in order to get back against the opponent's transition offense.  (Rondo, and/or whatever big is already in the paint seem to be the lone exceptions, and both, still seem to have major responsibility to get back when they do this - transition D is first, offensive boards a distant second.)   Further, our field goal against numbers are still often very very good while our own shooting percentages are high.  Basically when we can keep from turning it over we shoot a nice percentage and when we can get back to defend we do a good job.  When I put all these facts together, it makes no sense to me why we keep rebounding numbers as a total instead of as a percentage. 

Let's say Atlanta shoots 30% against us while we are shooting 50%.  Atlanta is a team that goes after offensive boards.  70% percent of their shots produce rebounds while only 50% of ours do.  They are going to get a lot more rebounds than us.  There is no way around that.  They just have more chances and they are more willing to risk transition baskets.  Comparing totals, which include offensive rebounds is an apples to oranges issue - it is useless.  What I want to know is how often we secure the defensive boards, that is, what percentage of defensive rebounds do we secure.  (The stats guys would have to take into account missed free-throws that result in lose balls, otherwise the numbers are already there, right?).  What percentage does a good rebounding team achieve, 75%?  When we are getting out hustled and out jumped by Atlanta's young legs what percentage are we at, 60%?  Who knows?  Nobody knows because this is not the way the stats are kept.  (Obviously we would get the flip side as well, say an average offensive rebounding rate is 20% or 25%, although that seems high, and we know that Atlanta grabs 30%, well that would then be a stat worth knowing and watching for.)

So, who has some pull around here?  There have got to be folks in the C's organization and from at least CSN lurking.  (ESPN? JVG himself?  Why was Paul Pierce picked to shoot threes again? - oh, cirlce gets a square.)  Doesn't this make sense and isn't it especially important for understanding the C's success the rest of the way?  I emailed Mike and Tommy but Tommy blamed the whole thing on the officials whereupon Mike mercifully  announced the C's next charity outing.

Atlanta is a very good team.  They can shoot, defend and they are very good on the offensive boards.  They play a fast and crazy enough pace to make up for a pretty small center tandem that could or should be abused on defense.  And they have the stud that can create his own shot.  They block shots, they beat teams to lose balls, they seem both young and hungry and poised and smart which like it or not, Bibby helps greatly with.  I think ESPN's power rankings are right - they should be thought of as an elite team in the east.  they will have to be dealt with and we should not misunderestimate them ;).  Just watched a fantastic game between them and Portland, and wow, I wish we had Fernandez. 

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=macmullan_jackie&page=Rondo-090423

Here's a cool rondo article.  Some would say its a fluff piece, but I liked it a lot.

rondo is really starting to make me believe, not just for the long term but for this year, that we suddenly have another legit star on this team, certainly an elite athlete but also probably an elite bball player, at least one unlike anything I have ever seen before.  When is the last time a Celtic was constantly the fastest player on the floor?

Sorry, tried to make this a fanshot but it didn't like the URL and it wouldn't let me leave it blank

Here is a really good article about Shane Batier and the Bill James affect on basketball.  Why, if Batier's stats are so modest and if his athleticism is subpar does he constantly make dramatic improvements to his team's records?  Great intro about NBA phoniness right before tip off where everybody is pretending to actaully know each wother.  The Bill James affect is spearheaded by Daryl Morey, the Rockets GM, who, I did not know, worked for the Celtics ownership group as they were buying the team and in the early days of that group.

Here is a juicy bit:

There is a tension, peculiar to basketball, between the interests of the team and the interests of the individual. The game continually tempts the people who play it to do things that are not in the interest of the group....We had a point guard in Boston who refused to pass the ball to a certain guy.

It is a good long article that might help in this god awful all-star break down time.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?em

So about  a week ago Mike Gorman was teasing (and flattering) Tommy Heinsohn about his "record" for most shot attempts per minutes played in NBA history.  It came down to an ungaurdable sweeping, running hook shot that would either go in or not but could not really be stopped.  It was the bail out shot.  Anybody remember this?  They showed video of him doing it down on the right baseline.  Tommy said he was trying to teach it to somebody, Big Baby, I think. 

Then last night in the Miami game Paul Pierce goes into this methodical, paint-by-numbers set up down on the right block for.......an ungaurdable hook shot.  He did it twice and hit them both and seemed to have real nice footwork, control of the ball, and vision on the shot, the latter being the most important part - he could see the basket just fine while doing it.  He even seemed to be trying to find ways to set up for that shot throughout the game.  He missed one from just inside the free throw line on the right side in traffic.  But wow, would I love to see PP add that shot to his bag, not an unctrolled Alonzo Mourning jump hook, but a slow and deliberate set up where the body is perpendicular to the defender creating tons of space and he just raises up his right side in an old man basketball kind of way and nails it.  Everybody can laugh and tease him all they want when he is 10 of 12 from the field. 

I love this guy.  What an amazing thing for him to do at this time in his career.

Here is how I see the recent problems.

First, the bench is too careful. They do not push the ball and they do not create full court defensive havoc. They take too long to get into their offense and they lack the ability to create their own shots that is required for constant half-court offense. They need to push the ball especially when RA is out there with them in order to get him some shots. They must get the ball out of Eddie House's hands in the half court set. He simply does not have the skill set to get them into their offense. He should only shoot threes with one dribble or less. Let one of the Allen's handle the ball. When Ray is out there let the offense go through him. Now, I have long argued against RA's dribbling to no affect but in the second unit that seems the wise choice (obviously, PP when he is out there). Otherwise make it Tony Allen's responsibility to drive and kick. I realize he is a turnover machine right now but the whole 2nd unit offense seems so helter skelter that I am not sure it is all his fault. We are talking about 10 or 15 possessions per game where the 2nd unit failed to push it and so Tony becomes responsible for beating his man off the dribble, not turning it over, not fouling and finding a shot for somebody. He is the only guy on that unit that can do that. Next choice would be Leon in the post. I can live with that hierarchy, push, not there, tony driving or Leon posting (or PP or RA isolating when they are in there). I can not live with Eddie House using 15 seconds of clock, getting the ball to guys out of position, getting the ball back and hoisting up contested three's off the dribble. Remember when you scoff at my use of TA that this is the alternative.

Second, Doc is monitoring minutes in a big way. That is the real issue with the bench and I expect that will not be the case in the playoffs. Let's just hope that our guys are in the kind of shape we think they are.

Third, our lack of length on the defensive end is a serious problem. Even if the only thing POB can do is be tall, let him be tall. Otherwise, hopefully, help is coming. Where are you now Dino?

Fourth, teams have conceded that Rondo is indeed fantastic and that he can destroy their defense with his penetration. Remember all of Ainge's picks that we got excited about and how they would perform really well for about a month. This is the time it takes for the rest of the league to say, ok, we actually have to deal with that guy when he gets the ball here or there. I think the same thing has happened with Rondo but at the next level. The Lakers took him so seriously that they put Kobe on him. Yes, Kobe would leave him once he got rid of the ball but Kobe was there to stop his penetration. The Knicks did the same thing with their center no less. It is a good strategy, stop Rondo's penetration, make him pass the ball and he becomes an offensive liability. Three counters. First, putting Kobe or your center on Rondo is a huge defensive adjustment. It must result in lesser defenders and/or mismatches somewhere else, just like a big getting doubled, a pick and roll, or a hot scorer getting doubled causes defensive issues we must take advantage of this extreme defensive tactic. That brings up the second counter – Rondo should still try to beat these guys off the dribble. He does not have to shoot over them, just dribble by them. Don't concede the dribble, it is too big a weapon to do that. (This is likely what Doc harps on when talking about Rondo's aggressiveness.) Third Rondo must use that crazy athleticism to make up for his offensive shortcomings, full court pick ups, steals, offensive rebounds, pushing the ball etc. He can be a force out there just by his speed even when he is having problems on offense.

Lastly, when none of the above adjustments for Rondo are working this teams lacks an offensive identity. So what to do? I am fine with exploiting mismatches. Each team must have some plan for guarding KG, PP, and RA one on one. That is a rare defensive team. If any one of those guys has a guy on him that can't handle him, go to him over and over again. Don't take that guy out of the game. Don't try to share the ball. Pound them over the head with the inadequate defender. (Somebody get some tapes of the 80's Celtics for these guys.) How many shots do we see RA and PP pass up that they never would have passed up 3 years ago? How many times do we see RA and Garnett pass the ball into places where they wish the cutter was going, or they wish the cutter could handle the ball. Stop trying to be pretty on offense. We are brutes on defense, be brutes on offense as well. Ben Gordon can not cover Ray Allen, nobody with a Q in their name can cover PP.  Pound them. The only guy that should be allowed to pass up a decent shot is Rondo, not because of his poor shooting but because he is the point guard and that is his prerogative, that is what he does. RA and KG are not point guards and it shows. Finally, it is possible for a defense to “guard” Rondo by making him the top priority, as I described above. It is not really possible to guard Paul Pierce. There should be absolutely no doubt that Paul Pierce is the nightmare match-up for all the defenses we face (I too wish it were KG in the post, but we all know that it is not.)  Paul Pierce gives the defense a choice. Double team him or get torched.  It is that simple.  That is our true offensive identity (Ray can play this role on the 2nd unit BTW).  He can not be guarded one on one. I don't want to see it all game. I want other threats exploited. I want PP fresh for defense, and rebounding and the long run but when a defense clamps down on everything else we try to do, Paul Pierce is the guy that can still destroy them especially with a couple of shooters on the floor with him.  (Rondo might need to sit unless he gets his shots up between now and april.)   I will live and die with the ball in Pierce's hands, his step backs, his spin moves, all of it, rather than the sometimes pretty, and often disastrous over passing. KG has a three foot jump hook, oh!, look at that interior passing to Kendrick, ohhh, Derek Fisher with the strip and the Laker's are running the other way......sorry to do that to you all, but see what I am saying?  Enough with the offense by committee. Enough with worrying about feelings. I don't think RA would have a problem with this, and I have seen Rondo getting on PP be more aggressive, telling him to take it. When the game or the season is on the line, get the ball to Pierce and get the heck out the way. Everything else is window dressing. This is the problem. We lead the league in turnovers. I would rather see PP shoot 35% than see us give the ball up 20 times. Am I missing something?

(I should add that I think, I hope, Doc sees all this and he is playing a little Phil Jackson game of forcing his guys to get better. But at the very least, we are gonna need to start keeping the hot, or mismatched guy out there a little more on a given night. We are gonna have to start playing against what the other team is throwing at us instead of sticking to these set rotations where we refuse to change anything we are doing. It is arrogant and the rest of the league is too good for that.)

Somebody's gotta help me.  I broke my phone so I lost my background photo.  It was Kg and Rondo giving a half hearted high five where they weren't really looking at each other, probably going back to the bench, but there was something with the perspective where Garnett looks like a fantasy novel giant next to rondo.  I love that photo, not least because it drives stupid-basketball-is-over-since-jordan-left chicago fans nuts.  Does this wring a bell with anybody?  gotta believe I ran into the photo from this site.

Thanks

Chicagogreen

New Jersey just sent Sean Williams to the D-League. 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/basketball/nba/12/29/nets.williams.ap/index.html

No idea why.  Wasn't this guy a beast last year?  Does he really have that 6-10 frame?  Interesting.  I love this team but there is no denying that we are lacking a little length up front.  Extra guys on the roster at 6-10 plus don't have to be anything special they just need to be there for clogging the lane and taking fouls, for spot minutes, and by all accounts Williams was better than this.  If it is about discipline issues I too believe this team can help with that.

That is the best I have ever seen Kendrick Perkins play.  I realize that offense is more rare and so that might have to be valued higher but for most of the time he was in the game I thought Perkins was the best player on the floor.  He was the guy that the other team just couldn't do anything about, whereas we could double and contain Joe Johnson (although we seemingly decided not to down the stretch - why?).  Even PP finally missed a shot on one of those Mike Bibby back downs.  As good as KG was if he had been able to hit a jump shot this wouldn't have been close.  But Perk, wow.  He was covering the whole floor on D.  He looked like Scottie Pippen out there.  I remember when it counted the Bulls would send Pippen out there to gaurd the ball all over the half court, literally, behind the three point line.  It was rediculous.  He was so long and fast that he would just chase the ball around, and often completely contain it or take it away.  He would, and could chase it down from pass to pass all over the court and somehow manage to keep up with it.  I had never seen that.  I remember laughing about it with some friends at the time.  It was so outrageous it looked funny, like a broken play, and then we realized that that was the plan and that it was actually working.  Perk reminded me of that tonight.  He didn't go out as far, usually, but he also maintained responsibility for the cutting of the lane and boxing out.  He would go out and take a perimeter guy, bottle him up, allow Allen or Rondo to get back then have to turn and find the big under the basket before the ball could get down there and he would do it two, three times per possesion, facing up to the driver each time and forcing them to think better of it.  He did that and he still blocked shots.  And he would do it each time, over and over again.  Hats off to Ray's effort on d when overmatched, hats off to Pierce forcing the defense's hand with that crazy Bibby matchup, hats of to KG's clutch work down low, hats off to Tony Allen's spot D, and hats off to Rondo's now expected all-star type speed, and aggresiveness, his drives and his finds and his  finishes.  But hands down, this game belonged to Kendrick Perkins.  I have never seen a big, other than Garnett, play defense that way and dominate the game that way.  Wow.