SB Nation User Blog: chuckb

Game 83 Open Thread -- July 4, 2009

chuckb — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 16:45:21 -0000


Thompson	Owings
4.77 FIP	5.39 FIP

If Micah Owings were in our starting lineup, his wOBA would be the 2nd best among our starting 9. As it is, it'll probably be tied for the 3rd best in the Reds' starting lineup. On the mound, well...he's a pretty good hitter. He walks too many, doesn't strike out enough, and gives up too many homers. His GB% is pretty low also, thus making pitching in Great American Ballpark that much more difficult.

On our side, it's a good thing that Thompson has a 56.5% GB% b/c a 2.81 K/9 is just unworkable in the majors. He just can't survive for long allowing everyone to put the ball in play. If the Reds don't hit the ball out of the ballpark, they could certainly single him to death. Thompson has 6 starts so far this season and has an above average game score in only 1 of them. He's been beaten around in his last 2 starts and it seems to be a race between he and Wellemeyer to see who loses his job when Lohse returns from the DL. Wellemeyer seemed to have a leg up before his impressive start a couple days ago so now Thompson's probably ahead by a nose. Here's hoping he pitches well enough today to fall behind Wellemeyer once again.

Put me in, coach

chuckb — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 06:44:54 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

#28 has to be penciled in the lineup every day from here on out. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Over the last 7 games, Colby Rasmus has started just 4. He has actually had the fortunate opportunity to pinch hit in 2 of the other 3 games and garnered a 2nd PA in last night’s game, finishing 2 for 2 on the night. Over the same 7 games, Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel have each started 5 times and Ryan Ludwick has started 6. When Rick Ankiel went on the DL in May, Rasmus assumed the everyday spot in CF. For the most part, this continued with Ludwick on the DL as well but Ludwick returned from the DL on May 29. Here are the players’ numbers from May 29 through July 2. (UZR is for the entire season.)

	PA	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	UZR
Ludwick	116	103	21	3	10	22	.204	.278	.330	2.0
Ankiel	118	111	25	3	7	26	.225	.271	.396	2.5
Duncan	105	92	20	1	12	26	.217	.305	.283	-2.5
Rasmus	99	98	32	3	0	15	.327	.327	.531	10.4

What’s wrong w/ this picture? Rasmus has the most hits and the fewest Ks and has the fewest PAs of the 4. His slugging % over the month-plus is nearly Ludwick’s and Duncan’s respective OPSes. Now, I’m a little disappointed and frustrated by the fact that he hasn’t walked since May 25 but his OPS is still over .850 over the time period. If the other 3 were hitting, there would be more reason to be concerned about Rasmus’s lack of walks but considering the OPS difference between he and #2 – Ankiel (191 points!) – harping on the lack of walks seems to be nitpicking. Rasmus though is a liability defensively, right? Wrong. He’s the best we’ve got and it’s not even close …AND he plays the toughest, and most important, of the 3 defensive positions. I understand that the guy needs a day off every now and then, but there is absolutely no reason for him NOT to be in the starting lineup every day. Sit him against lefties? Why? So Ankiel and Duncan can play in his stead? Look at the numbers? They’re both lefties as well who struggle against southpaws. Exactly what do we gain by sitting him? There’s no excuse or justification for him not to be in the lineup every day. What more needs to be said?

Good article over at fangraphs re: Pineiro’s metamorphosis this season. Is it sustainable? The article says "yes." It’s meaningful b/c Pineiro will be a free agent at the end of the season. I need to see more in order to be convinced but he’s been fantastic, by and large.

I was glad to see Jarrett Hoffpauir’s promotion and his success last night. Hoffpauir’s always been one of my pets – a guy I always wanted to see get a chance and thought he deserved more than he’s gotten. I even wrote a thread about him about a year and a half ago comparing his minor league numbers to Dustin Pedroia’s. Just to be clear, I never said he’d be the same as Pedroia, just that he had some of the same skills and, though it took him longer to succeed at every level than it did Pedroia, I thought he had a chance to become a solid big leaguer. I’ve since tempered my optimism and he may never get another major league hit, but his walk and hit last night were huge (WPA = .469; Albert’s = .459) and I’m happy for him. Hoffpauir:chuckb::Blake Hawksworth:DanUp.

Finally, I guess I should offer a bit of an explanation for my bizarre post last Sunday. I was clearly responding to the chatter that we were involved in talks for Matt Holliday but I was also preparing to leave on vacation Sunday morning. I put together that thread Saturday morning and never found out about the trade for DeRosa, which happened actually before my Holliday post went up, until Monday or Tuesday when I saw a snippet of someone playing LF for the Cards and wearing number 7. Joe Mather? Nope, he’s out for the year. WTF? Who is this masked man and please, God, don’t let it be Matt Holliday! Anyway, we likely paid a steep price for DeRosa. He’ll help, as I said last Sunday, and if trades are measured by what they do THIS SEASON, we’ll win. It seems, however, that we gave up Chris Perez and either Francisco Samuel or Jess Todd for DeRosa. That ain’t cheap! DeRosa’s probably a type-B free agent at the end of the year so he’s worth a supplemental draft pick but I feel it’s likely that the 2 pitchers will provide more wins, and probably several more, over the next 5-7 years than DeRosa and that supplemental pick will for the Cards. That said, if DeRosa’s win and a half gets us into the playoffs, might it be worth it anyway?

There are many who see trades as zero-sum games – that one team wins the trade and the other, necessarily, loses. I don’t agree, simply b/c the two teams often have different goals – as we and the Indians do now. Ours is to win today while still maintaining the ability to win next year and beyond. Theirs is to win in the future. DeRosa may help us win the division or Wild Card this year and the 2 pitchers may help the Indians be successful in the future and then we would have both gotten what we wanted. Still, I’d have much rather given up only Perez.

One of the trades that people often use as a cautionary tale about making trade deadline deals is one made in 1987 when the Atlanta Braves traded starting pitcher Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers for a pitching prospect named John Smoltz. Alexander, for most of his career, was an OK starting pitcher and Smoltz was a star for a Braves team that won about 74 division championships in a row. He’ll be a Hall of Famer, in all likelihood, and people often point to that trade as a bad one for the Tigers and a great one for the Braves. It clearly was a great one for the Braves, who weren’t going anywhere in 1987. However, Alexander had a 1.53 in 11 starts for the Tigers in 1987. His FIP was 3.20 in those 11 starts – 2nd only to his 1972 season in a 19 year career. Over those 11 starts and 88 IP, he was worth 3.9 wins. The Tigers finished 98-64 that season, defeating the Blue Jays by just 2 games in the AL East. It’s not too much of a stretch to say that Alexander’s acquisition was the difference. Though he didn’t pitch well in the ALCS and they lost to the eventual World Champion Twins, you would have to say that this trade was a winner for the Tigers as well. The Braves and the Tigers had different goals at the time and both came out winners in this trade. Get to the postseason and take your chances.

I think this trade will be measured in much the same way. If the Cards make it to the postseason, both sides will be winners in the trade. If we don’t, however, the Indians win and the Cards overpaid. Wouldn't it be interesting if the outcome of this trade wasn't determined by how DeRosa plays or how the 2 pitchers pitch for the Indians, but rather by how much Rasmus plays over the last 3 months? Hmmm....

Game 81 Open Thread -- July 2, 2009

chuckb — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 21:23:01 -0000


Cain	Wellemeyer
4.00 FIP	4.84 FIP

I'm out of town so if Wellemeyer's been bumped from the rotation, I either don't know it or can't change this. Dare to dream! Cain shut us down earlier this season but the Giants are one time that has a more difficult time scoring than we do. Cain has 9 wins and an ERA around 2.50 but he is walking around 4 batters per 9 innings and is benefiting from a .266 BABIP.

The NL All-Star Team, according to chuck

chuckb — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 00:28:01 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

This guy makes the team whether he's voted a starter or not. He's been better than average during the 1st half. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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With All-Star balloting ending in a couple of days I decided to put together my NL All-Star team today. This will be a complete 32-man All-Star team that includes at least 1 member from every team. I know that there are some who find this rule to be obsolete but I think it’s a good rule to help keep the worst teams’ fans at least somewhat involved and interested in the game and the season. There’s no doubt that sometimes a player from a terrible team doesn’t deserve to be on the team but, if a player is the 32nd best player in his league, it’s not like he’s getting a horrendously raw deal if he’s bumped in favor of the best player on a 35 win team. I paid no attention to the fans’ voting. This isn’t a list of who WILL make it. It’s a list of who SHOULD, IMO, make it. I also didn’t care about that phony "this time it counts" bullshit b/c that’s simply one of the dumbest rules baseball’s ever instituted so I don’t intend to put the league’s best LOOGY on the team just b/c he’s a lefty. Ridiculous! I also didn’t pay any attention to injuries and who could actually play. If they deserve it, they made it. In order to evaluate them, I put more emphasis wOBA and wRAA for the offensive players and UZR for defense than I did things like batting average and errors. For pitchers, I used FIP, WPA more than wins and ERA. I also used total RAA to measure value and compare players. This will help explain why Adam Dunn and Miguel Tejada didn’t make it, for example. Anyway, w/o further ado, Ladies and Gentlemen – Meet your 2009 NL All-Stars!

Catcher: Starter – Yadier Molina, Cardinals. Backups – Geovany Soto, Cubs and Bengie Molina, Giants. Yadi is 2nd in the NL in wRAA and leads the NL in fewest SBA/G. He also has caught 33% of potential base stealers. He’s first in the NL in overall value. Soto is first in the NL in wRAA and, this year, has a respectable CS%. He’s starting to come around after a very slow start. Bengie gets almost all of his value from his 10 HRs as he has walked just 3 times all year – a number that makes only Jeff Francoeur jealous.

First Base: Starter – Albert Pujols, Cardinals. Reserves – Adrian Gonzalez, Padres and Prince Fielder, Brewers. Duh! Is there any doubt? The best player in the game is having the best season of any position player in the game. There’s really not a lot of arguments to be had about the next 2 either, as both Fielder and Gonzalez have been worth more than 10 runs more than their closest competition – Todd Helton.

Second Base: Starter – Chase Utley, Phillies. Reserves – Brandon Phillips, Reds and Freddy Sanchez, Pirates. There’s a good argument for Orlando Hudson of the Dodgers here but, let’s face it, there’s gotta be a Pirate and there’s gotta be a Red. The 3 of them hover together – Phillips getting most of his value from his defense, Hudson losing some b/c of his, and Sanchez being pretty good at both. RAR has Sanchez and Hudson being nearly dead even, just slightly behind Phillips, due to Phillips’ outstanding defense, so the tie goes to the player on the team who needs a rep.

Shortstop: Starter – Hanley Ramirez, Marlins. Reserve – Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies. This is a blowout, and it almost doesn’t really matter who the reserve is but Tulowitzki gets a lot of value from his 12 homers and solid defense. Despite a .330 average, Miguel Tejada’s defense has been so bad so as not to justify his inclusion on the team. Ryan Theriot’s offense is slightly below average so Tulo gets the honor. For those who haven’t been paying attention, Ramirez is a stud!

Third base: Starter – David Wright, Mets. Reserves – Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals and Mark Reynolds, D-backs. Wright is an absolute stud; I don’t care that he just has 4 homers. He’s still sporting a .939 OPS and a .412 wOBA. He’s about 22 runs above average offensively, even w/ just the 4 homers. Zimmerman keeps it close b/c he’s played spectacular defense and Reynolds is right there b/c of his 21 dingers. I know his defense isn’t particularly good and that he strikes out about 114% of his PAs, but his wOBA is .393. He belongs…period. There are good arguments to be made for Casey Blake and Pablo Sandoval. Unfortunately, the keystone is loaded this year.

Outfield: Starters – Matt Kemp, Dodgers; Raul Ibanez, Phillies; and Justin Upton, D-backs. Reserves – Ryan Braun, Brewers; Carlos Beltran, Mets; and Hunter Pence, Astros. There’s little doubt that Ibanez and Upton deserve to start as they’ve been tremendous offensive players and above average (I know, I can’t believe it either w/ Ibanez) defensive players to this point. Kemp’s been very good offensively and an absolute Rasmus-esque stud defensively in CF and has been 35 RAR this season. He gets the nod, therefore, over Braun who, despite tremendous offensive numbers, has been slightly below average defensively this year. Pence is not just a token Astro representative. He deserves it based on being 16 RAA on offense and 3 RAA on defense. He’s been absolutely terrific and deserves to be on the team whether the Astros have 5 reps or whether he’s their lone rep.

Pitchers: Starter – Tim Lincecum, Giants; Reserves – Javier Vazquez, Braves; Josh Johnson, Marlins; Dan Haren, D-backs; Joel Pineiro, Cardinals; Chad Billingsley, Dodgers; Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies; Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers; Heath Bell, Padres; Brian Wilson, Giants; Francisco Rodriguez, Mets; and Rafael Soriano, Braves.

Among the starters, I looked at their value as determined by RAR and WAR b/c there’s a real delineation between those starters who have been great AND thrown a lot of innings and the pitchers who have either been good and thrown a lot of innings or been great and thrown fewer innings. The top 7 pitchers in terms of value have all been great and thrown at least 92.2 IP. They’ve all been worth at least 2.4 WAR whereas the next highest starters sit at 1.9 WAR. They’re all in the top 8 in the NL in terms of FIP and, again, there’s a big jump (.36 runs) to the #9 starter in the NL.

The 5 relievers were a little more difficult and many of you will doubtless note that I left Ryan Franklin, he of the 0.92 ERA off the list. That was tough to do. I again used FIP, RAR, and WAR as well as WPA to help me select this group. Franklin’s 3.20 FIP is solid, but distinctly higher than the 5 relievers who made the list. Franklin’s thrown fewer innings than the 5 who made it and, as a result, has been worth fewer RAR and WAR than the group who made it. The bottom line is that there have been a number of very good relievers in the NL during the first half but this seems to be the best of the lot.

My batting order would be as follows:

Ramirez -- SS
Utley -- 2B
Wright -- 3B
Pujols -- 1B
Upton -- RF
Kemp -- CF
Ibanez -- LF
Lincecum -- P
Molina -- C

There’s certainly a lot to be critical of here, whether it’s leaving Orlando Hudson off the team b/c of his relatively poor defense or my excluding Ryan Franklin. Miguel Tejada and his .330 average didn’t make it and neither did Adam Dunn and his 18 homers or Ryan Howard and his 20. Brad Hawpe has a .417 wOBA and didn’t make it. That’s what happens when you’re probably the worst defensive OF in the majors. Whether or not this team is the best the NL could field to defeat the AL in this exhibition game is irrelevant to me. It is, IMO, the group that best reflects the best overall players in the NL over the first half of the season. Fire away!

Game 77 Open Thread -- June 28, 2009

chuckb — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 21:12:16 -0000


Liriano	Pineiro
4.75 FIP	2.96 FIP

Yippee! Another lefty to go against our anemic offense! Liriano hasn't been very good so far this season but lefties haven't needed to be very good in order to beat us. Liriano walks a lot (too bad we don't know how to take a walk), strikes out a lot, and gives up more than his share of homers. You think Albert's got two more in him today? As you'd expect, Liriano's been deadly against lefties.

There's really not much to add about Pineiro from what I said the other day except that he's been tremendous at home and just ok on the road. A .575 OPS against is what Joel sports. This could be a 1-0 game.

More Holliday Chatter

chuckb — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 17:21:08 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

Let's add to what we've got, and fill some holes in the process, rather than giving up players like Ludwick to acquire Matt Holliday. (AP Photo/Paul J. Bereswill)

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Yesterday’s p-d brought us the news that the Cards are intensifying their pursuit of an OF -- particularly Matt Holliday b/c of their poor OF production to this point. While there’s little doubt that none of Ankiel, Duncan, or Ludwick have been particularly productive this season, the focus on a player such as Holliday, who is OF only, seems to imply a fundamental misunderstanding of the Cards’ offensive problems. Moreover, it also seems to imply that giving up more to get a "bigger name" – to provide "protection for Pujols" (as if there is such a thing) – necessarily puts the Cards in a better position over the last half of the season than acquiring someone who may not be the ideal cleanup hitter but may be more versatile, and therefore able to help the team more than someone like Matt Holliday.

It’s been said – here and many other places – that there is no real way to provide "protection" for Pujols. It doesn’t matter who hits 4th, the other team would much rather, ceteris paribus, pitch to that player than to Pujols. Whether it’s Matt Holliday or Matt Damon doesn’t make a lot of difference in terms of Pujols seeing good pitches to hit. The best way to "protect" Pujols, is to get runners on base when he comes to the plate. This forces teams to either pitch to Pujols w/ runners on base – when he’s most dangerous – or put an additional runner on base for the cleanup hitter. And again, as long as that hitter is about league average or better , the team that intentionally walks Pujols to get to that hitter is going to be hurt more than helped over the long run.

So far this season, the Cards best players have been Pujols, Rasmus, Molina, and Ryan. These 4 should be set in the lineup at 1B, CF, C, and SS , respectively for the remainder of the season. RF, LF, 3B, and 2B have been problems either b/c of offense (RF, 3B), defense (2B), or both (LF). The other thing that’s notable about our offensive struggles is that we have been downright horrid against lefthanders (.228/.308/.359). Our biggest culprits against southpaws have been Skip (.235/.291/.255), li’l Dunc (.242/.299/.371), Rasmus (.128/.226/.191), and Ankiel (.226/.268/.302). None of that should surprise anyone. Our 4 main left handed hitters have been horrendous against lefties. There is no doubt that the hitter we acquire should be a right handed hitter and clearly we need someone who can play the OF and allow at least 2 of those lefties to sit against the southpaws.

However, by focusing on outfield only players such as Matt Holliday, the team is ignoring its problems at 3B and 2B. Yes, we might get Troy Glaus back and he may play some and may be somewhat effective. In the meantime, we run out Joe Thurston (.302 wOBA) or Khalil Greene (.288). Both have been replacement level or below this season. Yes, I realize that we all love Skip’s spunk. He is first on the team’s grit-ometer and #1 in our hearts but he’s killing the team defensively and when a lefty is on the mound. Wouldn’t it be nice to have someone (other than Tyler Greene or Brian Barden) who could man the keystone when a lefty is on the mound? Does Matt Holliday offer that? Can Holliday play 3B?

When looking at trade targets, then, we need to be looking for a right handed hitter and preferably one who can play multiple positions. They also have to be playing for a team who is out of it, or near out of it, and whose team will soon be sellers. The candidates:

Matt Holliday – A’s: Holliday’s a great hitter and, yes, I know about his infamous home/road splits. He’s still been a 2 win player in the first half while playing, by most people’s estimation, poorly in a pitcher’s park in the tougher league. Still, he costs more as well – the p-d says Ludwick, a right handed reliever, and a prospect. The problems are that he can’t play 2B or 3B and doesn’t even replace Ankiel or Duncan in the OF.

Holliday was a 6 win player last season so it’s not unreasonable to believe that he might be worth 3 wins over the 2nd half of the season. Pretty good. However, Ludwick’s healthy now and was a 5.6 win player last season. Is it unreasonable to think that he’ll be worth 2 wins over the 2nd half? There’s virtually no difference defensively between Holliday and Ludwick, except for the fact that Holliday hasn’t played RF well…ever. I’d say that Holliday is worth no more than 1.5 wins more than Ludwick over the rest of the season and it’s probably closer to 1 win that the team gains – and that’s assuming that the reliever we trade (Motte, Perez, or McClellan) is replacement level over the last 3 months. I don’t care about the salary bump b/c we’re taking on half of it and Holliday’s a free agent at the end of the season. Do I want to resign him? Absolutely not. We’re going to need every $ we’ve got to extend Pujols. Ludwick will come at half the price of Holliday over the next 2 seasons. We can do better.

Mark DeRosa – Indians: DeRosa will probably cost us someone like Perez or Boggs which is unlikely to cost the team any wins over the rest of the season. DeRosa plays 2B, 3B, and the OF, though historically DeRosa has not been a good infielder. DeRosa has a career wOBA of .336, though he’s been above that every season since 2005. DeRosa has destroyed lefties over his career (.305/.375/.488) and has averaged 3 WAR for the last 3 seasons. He would replace one of the replacement level 3B until Glaus gets back (should it happen), could play 2B or LF against lefties – thereby replacing one of the awful lefthanded hitters at those positions – and be worth 1.5 wins at a minimum for the rest of the season. Since he’s replacing replacement level players, that’s a gain of 1.5 wins. He’s also a free agent at the end of the season.
Ty Wigginton – Orioles: No, he’s not a sexy name and yes, he’s signed for next season at $3.5 M. I seriously doubt that he would cost us more than Boggs or P.J. Walters, however. For his career, he’s been a lefty killer (.288/.361/.501) and, like DeRosa, he’s played 2B, 3B, and LF. Unlike DeRosa he’s only been below average at 3B but, more recently, he’s been better than 4-5 years ago. He’s probably at most a 2 win player for a full season, though he was worth 3.1 last year, so it’s probably a net gain of about 1 win or so over the last half of this year. He does, however, provide insurance at 3B next year in case Wallace or Freese aren’t ready to take the job full-time.
Felipe Lopez – D-backs: LB made the case for Lopez a couple of weeks ago. His platoon splits aren’t as good as DeRosa’s or Wigginton’s (.274/.328/.393) but he’d be a damned sight better than the guys we’re running out there now. He can play 2B and 3B adequately and, as we know, has played some OF. He’s been worth 1.6 WAR for the D-backs so far this season and was worth 1.7 as a Cardinal over the last 2 months of last season so maybe it’s conceivable that he could be worth a win and a half this season as well. He’d cost next to nothing to acquire so we wouldn’t be out any wins this season.
Scott Hairston – Padres: Hairston has really put it together this season. He has a .391 wOBA and has been worth 1.7 wins for the Padres while playing CF. He destroys lefties (.290/.343/.547 for his career) and came up as a 2B. This will never happen, however. He’s having perhaps a career year and is still under team control for 2 more seasons, thus making him pretty expensive. He hasn’t played 2B since 2004 and has never played 3B at the big league level.
Freddy Sanchez – Pirates: Like several of the others, Sanchez mauls lefties (.352/.388/.501 for his career). Sanchez is just a good hitter. He’s had LD rates of 24.5%, 27.5%, 22.5%, 24.3%, and 22.7% over the last 5 seasons. He’s been above average at 2B and 3B and, though he’s never played the OF as a major leaguer, there’s little doubt in my mind that he could. He averaged being worth 3.9 wins from 2005-2007 and has been worth 2 wins this first half. He could certainly be worth 1.5 – 2 wins over the last half of the season. Would he cost much more than a right handed reliever? How about Perez and Jon Jay? Why not? The team has an $8M option on Sanchez for 2010 or he becomes a free agent. The main reason why this trade is unlikely is that Sanchez also plays in the NL Central but, if you ask me, that’s more likely to come back to bite us 3-4 years later than for the Pirates to care this year or next. Let’s face it – they’re not competing for a division title this year or next. The more I think of this, the more I like it.

Though Holliday probably offers more upside than any of the other candidates, the cost is also higher, thus being worth less to the team over the 2nd half of the season than DeRosa and Sanchez and probably worth no more than Wigginton or Lopez. It makes no sense to give up Ludwick, who is probably a 2 win player over the 2nd half of the season + Motte, Perez, or McClellan + a prospect for Holliday when we can give up (probably) Perez for DeRosa or Perez + a prospect for Sanchez. We will simply gain more w/ DeRosa or Sanchez than w/ Holliday. Additionally, trading Ludwick + for Holliday leaves us next year w/ an OF of Rasmus, Duncan and a hole (Jay? Daryl Jones? Brett Wallace? Craig?). Not only is it not as good for this year, it’s not as good for next year either.

To those who would say – "We should only trade for Holliday if we can sign him to an extension!" Why would we, knowing that we’re going to have to come up w/ $25+M for Pujols soon, and knowing that we still owe Carp and Lohse for $10M+ for the next couple of seasons, give Holliday a contract in the neighborhood of 5 years, $75 M or more. 5 years probably isn’t enough for what he’s going to get. He’s probably going to get something like 6-7 years and $100-120M. When we have Ludwick, Duncan, Rasmus, Jay, Jones, Mather – why would we give Holliday that kind of money? Hell, we could sign DeRosa to a 2 year contract worth $12-15 M and let him play LF if we wanted, thereby saving some money for Pujols. I don’t know about you, but I’d rather have Pujols than Holliday. He makes much more sense as a rental than as purchase, if you ask me.

Game 76 Overflow thread

chuckb — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 19:42:57 -0000

Let's hold on! It's Albert 4, Twins 3.

Game 76 Open Thread -- June 27, 2009

chuckb — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 13:58:51 -0000


Slowey	Wellemeyer
3.92 FIP	4.84 FIP

I'm tired of writing about Wellemeyer so I'm not going to except to say that, w/ Lohse getting closer to returning, he's pitching for his spot in the rotation every time he takes the mound. Slowey's been tremendous so far this season. His K/9 is over 7 and his BB/9 is under 2 -- not that that matters w/ us since we don't know how to take walks anyway. He does have a 1.28 HR/9 so maybe we can hit some bombs and get Wellemeyer a few runs. Slowey throws fastballs 69% of the time and despite the fact that it averages less than 89 mph, he's 4.6 wRAA w/ it so far this season. The good news is that he's a fly ball righty w/ distinctive platoon splits. Lefties have hit him in his career to an .857 OPS -- more than .150 points higher than righties have so I'd expect to see Ludwick on the bench w/ the 3 lefties in the OF and, probably, Thurston at 3rd.

Breakthrough!

chuckb — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 13:47:54 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

Ryan's tremendous defense has helped make him a legitimate major league SS.(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Brendan Ryan was never considered much of a prospect when coming up through the Cardinals system. He didn’t do anything offensively that spectacularly but it appeared as though he could play SS. Of course, the Cardinals became accustomed to fairly productive offensive shortstops, what w/ several years of Edgar Renteria and then 3 more of David Eckstein, so it appeared as though Ryan would – if he made it at all – end up as nothing more than a utility infielder. More likely a Bo Hart/Joe McEwing type.

Ryan was drafted in the 7th round of 2003 draft out of Lewis & Clark in Idaho – a school whose most famous major leaguer was Keith Foulke. Ryan signed and proceeded to have what would become his most productive offensive season in the minors during the last half of the 2003 season while playing for New Jersey in the New York-Penn League. He was promoted the next season to Low-A ball w/ Peoria and was again, fairly productive offensively, and spent the 2005 season playing in High-A ball w/ Palm Beach and AA Springfield. 2006 must have been an injury-riddled season as he only had 128 PAs – total – while playing for 4 different teams. He did finish 2006 w/ Memphis, however, and that’s where he began the 2007 season.

He really wasn’t very good w/ Memphis in 2007 (.668 OPS) but we all know of Tony’s hankering for more middle infielders than is truly necessary (of course, when your backup SS option is Aaron Miles, maybe a 4th really was necessary!) and Ryan was recalled in early June. Though he quickly became a fixture in Tony’s doghouse for his base running snafus, swinging at 3-0 counts, and general goofiness he played better for the Cards than he did at Memphis.

Year	Age	Team	Level	BA	OBP	SLG	XBH%
2003	21	New Jersey	A -- ss	.311	.363	.425	30
2004	22	Peoria	Low-A	.322	.356	.404	19.7
2005	23	2 teams	High A; AA	.289	.349	.395	29.3
2006	24	4 teams		.265	.302	.308	9.7
2007	25	Memphis	AAA	.272	.328	.341	17.0
2008	26	3 teams	Hi A; AA; AAA	.261	.308	.450	44.8

David Eckstein was allowed to leave as a free agent at the end of the ’07 season and I thought it would be a good time to see if Ryan could handle the SS position full-time. In fairness, I was skeptical. He had really never established himself as anything more than a utility guy in the minors but I saw ’08 as a transition season – one in which we needed to see if we could find a young SS within the organization – but the team decided to sign the veteran Cesar Izturis instead. Ryan spent most of ’08 either injured or just generally ineffective and I found Ryan’s likelihood of becoming an everyday shortstop in the majors to be even more dubious. Let’s face it – a .669 OPS in the PCL doesn’t exactly foster a lot of optimism about one’s ability to be a productive major league hitter.

The Cards, of course, embarked on their great Khalil Greene experiment this offseason. We all know how well that’s worked and so the Cards pretty much turned to Ryan out of necessity, having no one else to turn to once Brian Barden quit hitting. Ryan has, for the most part, become the Cards’ every day shortstop b/c he has, quite honestly, been terrific. He’s been fantastic defensively – which is probably enough to allow him to maintain his regular position in the Cards’ lineup – but has also been much more than expected offensively. Don’t get me wrong – no one’s going to confuse him w/ Cal Ripken, Jr. – but he’s been better probably than any of us, or anyone in the organization, expected him to be.

Ryan has always had 2 problems offensively that created skeptics of his ability to become an everyday player in the big leagues. The first was that he simply has never been a patient hitter. Ryan absolutely loves to swing the bat and, as a consequence, his walk rate in the minors was always very low – 6.4%. The second is that Ryan simply doesn’t have a lot of power. He’s always been, basically, a singles hitter who didn’t walk much and if you’re not going to hit for extra bases in the Texas League or PCL, it’s going to be really tough to do against major league pitchers. His career minor league extra base hit % is 23.6% and he has 11 minor league homers in 1680 PAs. His career minor league isolated power is .092.

Entering the 2009 season, Ryan – in the majors – had a career OBP of .328, and an XBH% of 22%. Those are adequate numbers, I guess, but nothing that inspired a lot of hope. Defensively, his UZR/150 numbers really didn’t impress at either 2B or 3B. At SS, however, they were pretty stout – 13.7 in 2007 and 14.4 in 2008. Still, we’re talking about pretty small sample sizes as he spent less than half of each season in the big leagues and most of those 2 seasons bouncing from position to position.

This season, however, Ryan has been tremendous. He sits right now at .308/.346/.411. He’s still not walking – just a 5.2 BB% -- but he has been a very good hitter. Looking at his numbers one of the first things you notice is a .355 BABIP which leads you to believe that he’s not going to be able to keep up this level of production. However, at closer glance you see that his LD% this season is 22.6% -- one of the highest in the majors among shortstops – and his GB% is 52.4%. The bottom line is that Ryan hits very few fly balls and popups and is, therefore, able to take advantage of his speed. His infield hit % is 10.8% and, w/ a LD% of 22.6%, his high BABIP may not be a result of extraordinary luck. As long as he continues to hit line drives at this rate, he may be able to keep up this level of production.

Defensively, among shortstops w/ 240+ innings, Ryan has the 2nd highest UZR in the majors – saving the team 7.6 runs so far this season – and the highest UZR/150 in the majors. He’s been worth nearly a win defensively and -- w/ a wOBA of .333 – about a league average offensive player. Put those two things together w/ the fact that he plays a premium position and Ryan has been worth nearly 2 wins to the Cards already – and we’re not even halfway through the season. He’s on a 4-4.5 WAR pace, which would have put him in the top 5 shortstops in the game last season – above notables such as Jhonny Peralta, Derek Jeter, Yunel Escobar, Miguel Tejada, and Michael Young. In fact, this year, his 1.8 WAR puts him behind only Hanley Ramirez, Marco Scutaro (WOW!), Jason Bartlett, Derek Jeter, and Ryan Theriot among major league shortstops.

While Ryan should still work on his plate discipline – an everyday position in the big leagues is going to be difficult to maintain given a 5.2% BB rate – his ability to hit line drives and his ability to play the position well are his keys to holding onto the Cards’ SS position in the coming years. If he can keep his LD% in the 21-22% area – he’ll get on base at a fairly regular clip and, as long as he’s one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, his defense will support average or slightly below average offense.

Noon game today. Game thread goes up soon! Sheesh! I better get with it!

Game 74 Open Thread -- June 25, 2009

chuckb — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:15:30 -0000


Carpenter	Santana
2.77 FIP	3.61 FIP

Ordinarily, the matchup between Carp and Johan would look like a dream matchup on paper but New Yorkers are concerned about Santana right now. Santana was dominant in his first 7 starts of the season, w/ 60 K in 46 IP and a 0.78 ERA. Over his last 7 starts, Santana was struck out 37 in 43.1 IP and has a 5.82 ERA. He's given up 10 HR over the last 7 starts and he gave up just 2 in his first 7. On the plus side (if you're a Mets fan), his last start against the Rays was his best of this stretch. Mets' fans are understandably concerned about a drop in velocity though Dave Cameron over at fangraphs says they needn't be.

Carp was terrific the last time out, though he was pitching against the Royals' feeble offense. He hasn't quite been as good in June as he was in his first 5 starts but he's still been one of the best starters in the NL for the time that he's been on the mound. He's still about 5 starts away from being qualified for the ERA title but he'd lead the league if he was eligible. All I really want is for him to keep it up. I have a feeling we're going to need him to be good b/c we haven't exactly torn up lefties so far this season (.230/.313/.368). Yuck!