SB Nation User Blog: citizen zhiv

Turkoglu Turnaround

citizen zhiv — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 04:31:45 -0000

I'll mention right up front that this is over in the FanPosts because it has nothing to do with the Clippers. It's about free agency and relates to the Clips tangentially, but still. It's SP's site, and if he wants to move things over, awesome.

So Hedo makes a tentative deal with the Blazers, first reported, in a rather professional fashion, by uberbballblogger and Blazer fan Henry Abbott--kind of a minor question about supposed journalistic impartiality there, but things are moving quickly these days, and it's rather unfortunate that Abbott's story ended up falling apart. So he just wrote a nice retraction, comparing the tentative deal--emphasis on tentative--to buying a house. You make an offer, it's accepted, but both parties can get out of it for a period of time. These are big, expensive deals, and that's a good thing.

Anybody out there in Clipperdom reminded of a little deal that unraveled around this time last year? The FElton Fiasco still haunts us, and we shouldn't let this Turkoglu Turnaround go by without a nod at our own tumult last July.

This is a great coup by Toronto. The part that interests me is that it means that they can't sign Shawn Marion. I find Marion a talented but overrated player. For some reason I'm pulling for Lamar Odom to make a great deal, but I like the idea of a team taking Turkoglu and rejecting Marion. Okay, the reason to value Odom and hope for him to make a great deal is pretty obvious--it's to pry him away from the Lakers.

Marion was a prime beneficiary of the D'Antoni system and playing with Steve Nash. He can make plays all day long, run the floor, and he rebounds really well. It's interesting to put him into the conversation of Artest, Ariza, Odom, Battier and Turkoglu--and why not add Thornton to the mix. Or Blake Griffin.

This is also AGGT: Advanced Glue Guy Theory. One of the simplest ways to look at it is whether a player makes other guys on his team better. It's moving the ball, ball-handling, the ability to penetrate, to finish or dish, court vision. Turkoglu was very impressive in the playoffs. Of course, it helps quite a bit for him to play with Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis, but he played some great basketball.

Portland gets to regroup. Maybe they'll sign Odom. Not sure what happens to Marion now. Marion was identified as problematic in Phoenix, when he wanted more credit for their success. It seems as if it was more about the coach and Steve Nash, and the system was a great fit for Marion. Not sure why, but I'm not feeling the need to wish him well, and I don't mind Portland missing out on a great player either.

About that other LA team

citizen zhiv — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 01:18:43 -0000

I'm promoting Citizen Zhiv's excellent Lakers post to the front page - I'm not actually sure why Zhiv relegated himself to the sidebar in the first place. I have a couple of additional thoughts on Ariza/Artest as well. The story prior to these signings was that Ariza was disappointed that the Lakers weren't willing to go higher than the MLE. So it makes little sense that he would turn around and sign for the MLE with another team. But if Ariza was unwilling to give the Lakers a post ring discount, and the Lakers were equally unwilling to give Ariza a post ring bonus, it seems to indicate that things aren't all that wonderful in purple and gold. It does seem strange to have Ariza and Battier on the same team. I can't think of another team, really ever, who had two such glue guys starting on the wings - NBA teams almost ALWAYS have a primary scoring threat on the wing. What is TMac's status? Did they sign Ariza to the full MLE to come off the bench? Is Battier coming off the bench? Morey knows what he likes, and Adelman can coach, and Houston has been the single biggest over-achiever in the NBA for two straight years, playing competitively even as their mega-stars drop like flies - so it will be interesting to see what happens. But with Yao's injury, TMac's uncertainty and Artest gone, from a Clipper-centric standpoint it's hard not to think that a spot at the playoff table just opened up.

As for the Lakers, Zhiv hints at what I'll say outright - that team is loaded, and would likely be the favorite to win another title in almost any scenario. BUT the one thing that can screw up a loaded team is bad chemistry, and there's a boatload of that in Ron Artest's brain. He's the one guy in the NBA I would not have touched if I was Mitch Kupchak, talented as he is.

Zhiv after the jump.

Listened to a fair amount of commentary about the Artest-Ariza switch today. It's kind of funny how people become optimistic (!) when events change. Human nature I guess.

One way that it does make sense to me is if you look at Artest as a replacement for BOTH Ariza and Odom. He combines features of the two players, especially for defense and rebounding purposes, although he's not nearly the rebounder that LO is. The assumption here, of course, is that the Lakers don't resign Odom and have no intention of doing so.

It happens to be Odom's bad luck that he's a UFA in a horrible financial offseason. You know it's bad when people are freaking out at 5yr/50mil deals as if they're ridiculously expensive. People have pretty short memories I guess. Wait until the numbers start getting thrown around next year. And that's what LO should probably do, sign a one-year deal somewhere. He's a chump, and it would be extremely disappointing, if he signs a longterm deal with the Lakers for well below his value, at the 5yrs/40mil number that's being tossed around. A chump, because the Lakers would be valuing him at 80 million, only they would be paying half of that to him and the other half to the rest of the league.

Apparently no one notified most commentators on the Lakers about the "Glue Guy" concept. We're familiar with it here in Clipperdom because of Al Thornton's shortcomings. Thornton is no Artest, although he seems more rational and more of a solid citizen, but Artest uses his strength and size to play defense in ways that Thornton has never dreamed of.

But my question is whether the Lakers watched the tape of their own victory over the Rockets before they signed Artest. Houston was surprisingly competitive with the Lakers, taking them to 7 games as we know, going on runs and getting stops and winning games. Maybe it was just me, but the guy who seemed to stop Houston more often than not was Artest himself, not just missing shots, although he certainly did plenty of that, but because he was a black hole and once the ball went to him it didn't come out. Mark Jackson, commenting, kept saying that at times it was the fault of the Rocket pgs, because they needed to know to keep the ball out of his hands.

It seems clear that Daryl Morey, he of the careful breakdown of the Battier "intangibles," grabbed Ariza so quickly because he saw him as a young Glue Guy with upside, at a great price.

Does anybody think that Houston beats the Lakers in that series if Ariza (shooting well from deep) plays for the Rockets, and Artest (clanking and ballstopping) plays for the Lakers? The series itself won't be duplicated and Houston faces some new challenges, but did the Lakers ask themselves this question? And with Bynum less of a factor than might have been expected, what was the big difference between the championship Lakers and the team that lost to Boston: a healthy and effective Trevor Ariza.

The Lakers do have a good Glue Guy on their roster, and they're paying him a lot of money: Luke Walton. I don't know if it's underappreciated that the Lakers were able to start Ariza and bring Odom off the bench, but it made them an extremely formidable squad. Odom himself seems pretty gluey, by the way--something other teams should realize as he sits out there, available. If Odom leaves the Lakers would have a powerful starting lineup, with Bynum-Gasol-Artest-Kobe vaguely reminiscent of Shaq-Malone-Kobe-Payton. People talk about how well Phil Jackson handled Dennis Rodman, but Rodman was a very specific creature, and it's significant that he had zero needs on offense. Artest is a different story, and note the articles from Houston about how that team isn't going to miss him at all. At any rate, without Odom around, the Lakers Glue Guy (Walton) will be coming off the bench and he doesn't defend or rebound particularly well. Or does anybody think that Artest will come off the bench as peacefully as Odom did last season? You want a scorer like Thornton or an all-purpose talent like Odom coming off the bench anyway, not an Artest.

I'm actually surprised that the Lakers spent the money at all, and they may well be able to make a deal with Odom. As long as they have Kobe and Gasol they're going to be a great team. But there are a lot of great teams, and they'll have some significant new challenges with this latest move.

Ariza to Houston; Artest to Lakers

citizen zhiv — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:03:00 -0000

A little bit of musical chairs.

Interesting, and possibly volatile, expenditure by the Lakers. Phil Jackson does a good job handling players, but it's still a bit of a head scratcher why they would pay a substantial amount, along with all the luxury tax, for Artest. I guess they think he has more skills and is more effective than Ariza, that he's worth the money.

Seems like there's a bit of an overlap in Houston between Ariza and Battier.

This is all a rather strange equation. I'm not quite getting it.

July Fireworks: Zach Randolph traded

citizen zhiv — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:36:28 -0000

Looks like Steve Perrin is just as charmed as good old Clipper Steve. News notes saying that the Memphis deal for Randolph is going through, with the Clips bringing back our old pal Quentin Richardson. Clips save a lot of money, get a backup at the 2 and 3, and become players in the 2010 free agency sweepstakes.

Explosive!

Free Agent Follies Set to Begin

citizen zhiv — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 22:42:59 -0000

Carlos Boozer becomes the first domino, electing to take the one-year money and stay in Utah. This makes life a little more difficult for the Jazz, as Paul Milsap is expected to get a sizable offer from OKC, and they also have to deal with Okur. But what prompted Boozer's decision (he doesn't want to make less money), and what does it mean for the other free agents who are a few hours away from turning the ignition key?

In LA, a good test for the basketball knowledge of Laker fans is their awareness of the free agent situation and luxury tax consequences on Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom. As bitter Clipper fans, we probably have 10 times the financial awareness of the average denizen of Lakerdom. Of course Laker fan, enjoying champion status for the 15th time, has every reason to be optimistic and to believe that things will work out. It's the Lakers! And so we see statements about how the Lakers made $6 million by selling draft picks, which will certainly help them sign their free agents. That 6 million, of course, should pay for 20-30 games of one season from Lamar Odom, at a very hopeful discount rate of 10m/yr, doubled by the luxury tax. It's one thing to pay Zbo 18 million when you don't need him, but can you imagine contemplating a 60 or 70 million dollar deal for Odom that will cost you twice that amount--and that's after you sign Ariza. Does Boozer's decision mean that Detroit, OKC, or Memphis is more likely to make a generous offer to LO or Ariza?

What a difference a year makes. Oy. I can't even think about last summer, and how it turned into last year. If the pain is going to come this year, at least it will be a new version.

The Myth of Too Many Big Men

citizen zhiv — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 23:05:44 -0000

More photos » by George Frey - AP

Look for the media to rediscover Deandre Jordan as he plays beside Blake Griffin in summer league in a couple of weeks

Browse more photos »

As much as I'm good with the Do Nothing strategy in place, I'm getting frustrated at the poor analysis of the Clipper situation. Given the fact that the Griffin pick is giving the team a lot attention, it would be nice of somebody would do some actual work and spend time thinking about the Clippers and their prospects.

Two things jump out at me. They more than jump out--they're really starting to bug me.

1. 20-10 guys don't grow on trees. You don't just give them away and moving them requires, as MDSr says, "basketball decisions" of a sophisticated kind. So far, so good. But no one is connecting the dots between all of the minutes missed by the Clippers primary big men the last 2 years and the fact that they can't have too many guys at the 4 and 5. The Clippers gave substantial minutes 07-08 minutes to Josh Powell (1228) and Tim Thomas (1940), backup Paul Davis played 194 mins before his ACL, FElton played 274 minutes in 8 games, and Kaman 2.0 barely topped 2000 (2083) in 56 games. Nick Fazekas (220), Aaron Williams (297) and Ruben Patterson (327) were low level scrubs we saw too much. Last year Kaman played 921 mediocre minutes in 31 games, Camby made it to 1925 in 62 games, and Zbo 1369. By contrast, FElton played 3077 and 3099 mins in 05/06 and 06/07.

It would be great if Blake Griffin is phenomenal and can get up towards 3000 minutes, but it's not going to happen for him as a rookie. Eric Gordon managed 2654 last year in 78 games with a slow start. Al Thornton played 2677 last year in 71 games, and he played 2158 as in 79 games as a rookie, a lot of those out of position at PF.

The moral of the story is that it would be great if Blake Griffin plays between 2200 and 2500 minutes. Let's say, rounding off and counting overtimes, that there are 7800 minutes to go around between the two positions. That means that the Clips have to get 5300 to 5600 minutes out of Kaman, Camby, and Randolph. And that's not counting DeAndre Jordan or Steve Novak, let alone Brian Skinner.

So say that the Clips get 1500 minutes out of all three guys, and 1000 minutes go to DJordan. Maybe one guy plays more, one guy plays less. What happens to the logjam when one guy gets hurt? Is there a problem? Will we find ourselves saying, when Camby is out X number of games, and Kaman has been traded away, that the Clips are thin up front?

2. Deandre Jordan is a major factor in the myth of too many big men, but it has been like he doesn't exist for the last two weeks. I'm probably more outraged than I would be about this because of SP's excellent work comparing DJordan to Thabeet after the combine measurements came in. DJordan's role is where the minutes get tricky, but it's almost like a bonus question, because literally no one is mentioning him, he didn't appear on any ESPN graphics, no one wondered where he might have gone in this draft if he had stayed in school for another year like Blake Griffin did, nada. The only person who mentioned him is Blake Griffin, who knows him well from growing up the same age in the same region. No one is talking, even in the new article about the Clips three years down the road with Gordon and Griffin, about how DJordan is also 20 and should complement Griffin extremely well, perhaps for a very long time. The DJordan-Griffin-Gordon combo is one of the very best things about the Clippers' luck in the lottery.

DJordan could use an increase in minutes next season, but his growth curve seems to coincide well with the timetable of automatic departures, starting with Camby at the end of the coming season, and Randolph the year after. There will be plenty of minutes for him soon enough.

He'll be hard to miss as part of the DJordan-Griffin-Thornton-Gordon-Taylor lineup at the summer league in a couple of weeks. It should be funny to see people remember him all of a sudden. The Clipper fortunes have been rising quickly and steadily, and even though it seems like they're getting a lot of attention, the analysts are missing a number of very important stories. I'll add one more: we can expect to see Eric Gordon playing a lot of point guard in the summer league.

Summit, sort of: Eric Gordon is pretty friggin good

citizen zhiv — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 21:44:33 -0000

More photos » by Noah Graham - NBAE/Getty Images

2 months ago: LOS ANGELES - APRIL 10: Eric Gordon #10 of the Los Angeles Clippers moves the ball up the court during a game against the Sacramento Kings at Staples Center on April 10, 2009 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)

Browse more photos »

Monsieur Perrin has one more night down in the canyon, and journeys home tomorrow. In the meantime, the inimitable KA considers Eric Gordon in the latest installment of the Clipperblogger Summer Summit, so go on over to Clipperblog to get the latest. I put up my own skewed Gordon considerations yesterday afternoon, before KA put up his post, so perhaps the two count for a mini-summit, and SP will return soon enough to make sense of it all and share his own thoughts on Eric Gordon.

As long as I'm here and discussing the summit, I'll mention how lucky we are to have two such insightful and expert commentators like SP and KA working hard on analysis of the crappy team that we unfortunately care about for whatever bizarre reason. I'm assuming that no one on this site was in the Colosseum as the Lakers made their imperial march through the peristyle and down the steps to their floor, set up in the endzone. I gotta say, I was impressed. Whattawe got? We got Clipper Steve and ESPN/TrueHoop's own Kevin Arnovitz! You heard me.

And KA's Gordon musings are hardly idle. Linky SP will probably help us remember how KA sat with Rookie guru David Thorpe and gave him an advanced Eric Gordon tutorial, helping Thorpe begin to see the light. And KA and Thorpe figure to spending even more time looking at the same screens next year, with Blake Griffin marking out a huge blip on Thorpe's radar.

Oh--wait--the Clips haven't drafted Griffin yet? Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Draft in 8 days. And as KA points out Clippers-Lakers summer league game, featuring Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, Mike Taylor and whoever the Clips happen to draft, on July 13 in Vegas. Maybe Ariza and Odom will have turned in their purple and gold togas by then.

Eric Gordon as a PG?

citizen zhiv — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:33:13 -0000

More photos » by George Frey - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Clippers Eric Gordan, left, shoots over Utah Jazz's Paul Millsap during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Salt Lake City, Monday, April 13, 2009. The Jazz bet the Clippers 106-85. (AP Photo/George Frey)

Browse more photos »

Just trying to find something to put up on the top of the site while SP is down in the Utah canyons. We can only have the Laker congrats up for so long, right?

And until the trade stuff starts to gel, which has already been covered exhaustively, it's all one big rehash, and what else is there to say? In normal circumstances we would be sweating out the draft, running at a high anxiety level, the Clips have the #1 pick and Blake Griffin is the more-than-obvious choice, a lock.

I was looking around at the other top picks, and the landscape has changed now that the Clips will have Blake Griffin on their roster. Chad Ford has finally reconciled himself to the always-obvious idea that the Clips will take Griffin, but no one has mentioned that the Clips trade pieces might net them another draft pick. SP has led the way saying that the Clips shouldn't have any interest in Thabeet, when they already have DeAndre Jordan. Jordan Hill no longer makes sense in any way. It looks as if Baron Davis isn't going anywhere, and we'll get to see if he can return to form. We seem to be focused on a "glue guy," raising the possibility of bringing Al Thornton off the bench. Blah-blah-blah: until the chess pieces start moving, it's all up in the air.

But who, or what, do the Clips go after if they trade for a pick? Backup PG seems to be the obvious choice. Talented and young, able to rise as BDavis falls, seem to be the desireable traits. There's no need to duplicate Mike Taylor either. Taylor is on the small side, quick enough to guard the Tony Parker types who will increasingly give BDavis trouble. Taylor has great energy and can score, but he's not a natural distributor. Rubio is unlikely, but he would be a great fit. The next tier includes Evans, Curry, and Holiday, all good choices.

There does seem to be some overlap with Eric Gordon in guys like Curry and Holiday. And this started me wondering: what do we think of Eric Gordon as a PG these days? His rookie season was so outstanding and satisfying at SG that we might be losing track of some of his potential and an important piece of roster flexibility. Should the Clippers, if they trade for a pick, be precluded from drafting an SG "glue guy" like James Harden? Is Harden a glue guy? Are Curry and Holiday any more likely to be successful at PG than Gordon would be?

I'm a bit haunted by the Westbrook example. The Thunder improved dramatically, and RW himself got much better, when they made Westbrook the starting PG. He didn't flourish in the time he spent at SG prior to becoming the PG starter. And now the Thunder are saying that they don't have any interest in Rubio, because that would mean that RW would be firmly embedded at SG.

Example number two involves Jrue Holiday. I'm a big Howland and UCLA fan, but I think, in retrospect, that Howland made his team much weaker by failing to make Jrue Holiday his second string PG. Holiday was his starting SG, and he had a Senior potential All-American PG in Darren Collison. But in Howland's rotation, Holiday sat down to bring in the backup SG (Michael Roll), and Collison's (limited) backup minutes went to Jerime Anderson. Jrue Holiday played almost no minutes at PG until UCLA was in the tournament. He showed, in a brief amount of time, that he's much better as a distributor and pass-first PG than he is as an SG. The best UCLA attack would have been to substitute for Collison early, rather than Holiday. As it turns out, of course, all of the minutes that Jerime Anderson got were valuable, because he's the only PG on the Bruin roster this year. But the Bruins would have been a better team, and Holiday would have had a much better season, if he had gotten a healthy share of minutes at PG. It was a tricky situation, Holiday was a freshman and Collison a senior. (Btw, Howland did a similar thing the year before, playing KLove, a great college center and an undersized, effective NBA PF, at center the whole year, and reducing the minutes of Lorenzo Mata, and then they were undersized in the Final Four).

Does the same model apply now to the Clippers? Is Eric Gordon the best PG on the Clippers? Should the first sub be for BDavis, with Gordon sliding over to PG?

Let me make the point that just because Westbrook and Holiday weren't successful at SG, while Eric Gordon was very successful, doesn't mean that Eric Gordon can't play PG. Westbrook, in particular, doesn't seem to have any PG skills that Gordon doesn't possess. And the Thunder are passing on Rubio because Westbrook is their PG!

This is fascinating. Of course it's easy to think that Gordon is already an outstanding SG, ready to step forward as a Ray Allen-type player. He's not a Jordan, Kobe, Wade, or a Brandon Roy, because he doesn't have the size, but he can more than hold down the position. But would he be better in the long run joining the conversation about Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Westbrook? Just wondering.

If the Clippers trade for a second high pick, they take Rubio and you never ask this question. But would you take Harden or Evans? Curry/Holiday? It'll probably never even come up, but just because Eric Gordon had such a sensational rookie season, doesn't mean that his future can't hold some spectacular suprises.

Do Nothing: The Abbreviated Version

citizen zhiv — Wed, 20 May 2009 23:08:20 -0000

This is the short version, as the complete zhiv/text got lost in the tubes while I was browsing photos. Hard to accept as I was trying to make a comeback, but perhaps it's appropriate to the topic: what was I really trying to do, anyway, by writing a couple of thousand words on how the Clips should do nothing? So here are the basic beats, as I can best reconstruct them.

Do Nothing is the Core Philosophy of zhiving and Club Optimism.

10 points:

1. Injuries happen. Has there ever been a real logjam, too many available big men? Just the opposite. So having a surplus is one way to address a chronic problem. Even if the problem is me having to get excited about guys like Davis3 and Fazekas.

2. DeAndre Jordan isn't ready. DJordan was forgotten by the media--he's why they didn't need Thabeet. Important piece who will complement Griffin, but very young and still raw. After Camby deal expires, then Randolph deal, then Kaman deal, it would be nice if DJordan is a monster by then. Did I mention that I'm excited by DJordan?

3. Kaman. Kaman became Kaman 2.0 after FElton work ethic and MVP-quality season--perhaps injury woes and arrival of Griffin will provide similar motivation. Best pure center, offense/defense. Also complementary, salary is good--as long as it's Kaman 2.0. Do Nothing: Kaman gets another chance.

4. Camby. Expiring deal. Can be traded up until deadline if things get funky. Veteran leadership and effort, good to have with young guys like Gordon, Griffin, and DJordan around. Would be nice to have him healthy in training camp, working with BDavis and others (instead of hurt, with BDavis hanging out with Davis2 and Tim Thomas.) Good player, nice piece: do nothing.

5. Clips did a lot last year. It didn't work. So this year: Do Nothing. Clips signed BD, got Camby, but put those aside for the moment. Big move was shipping out Thomas and Mobley, which put EGordon in the starting lineup. Also moved up Steve Novak, who eventually started playing. Collins came in, became an upgrade on QRoss, able to handle the ball and play 3rd string PG. Worth it just for victory over Celtics and battle with Paul Pierce.

6. Zbo. Think of him as the new Tim Thomas. Quality starter if Griffin needs an adjustment period. His very poor defense is no longer problematic because the Clips have the ability to be a strong defensive team now. But his scoring is valuable, and remember, guys get hurt. Poor behavior not a problem because he is less important to team fortunes, and team has acquired a hard working, high energy Big Dog. Zbo just part of the pack. Don't think that I wasn't up at 4am working the Trade Machine, but how about this: Do Nothing.

7. Baron Davis is an elite point guard. Now he has a reason to start playing like one. He doesn't have to carry the team, which he has shown he can't do. But drafting off of Griffin, Gordon, and others, he can bring poise under pressure and give the Clippers some swagger. Plays better with the wind in his sails, has been saying the 2nd year will be different, got lucky and has a second chance to prove his worth. Do nothing. That includes not eating doughnuts.

8. Al Thornton. Athleticism of Griffin will complement AT's. Team can play better defense, which will help AT's shortcomings. Might play better on a better team, make better decisions in 3rd year and have less responsibility to be leading scorer with emergence of EGordon, no time or bad shots from Davis2, better shot selection and overall play from BDavis, energy and play of Griffin, healthy front line. Not the ideal longterm SF, but a talented, quality placeholder. Do Nothing.

9. A strong bench. You know the names: MTaylor, DJordan, Collins, possibly Novak, possibly FJones. I even like Skinner as practice and disaster fodder. Perhaps Griffin starts out coming off the bench, but we'll see. With Do Nothing you have at least two starter-level bench players out of Griffin-Kaman-Camby-Zbo coming off the bench, guys with different skills.

10. MDSr. and Bill Simmons mojo. Simmons reversals of fortune can be significant. Vilified Doc Rivers as Celtics dropped to worst-record territory while he dreamed of KDurant in Celtic uniform. Rivers now valued coach of championship team, wasn't his fault Kevin Garnett got hurt. Simmons wrote book about how Red Sox World Series win made his life meaningful, made him whole, and now knows that they cheated and Manny Ramirez is just as dirty as McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds, so maybe Simmons is a little less whole. Has been merciless in criticism of MDSr, blaming him for all Clip ills, saying that 100% of fan base wants him fired. Not wrong about this, wasn't alone, but now Simmons will be renewing his season tickets, and the Clips have had the same attitude towards MDSr from the beginning, one that hasn't changed: Do Nothing.

Draft Prospects: last year vs. this year

citizen zhiv — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 20:35:11 -0000

Cabo Steve asked that I post my next brisk yet thorough screed up on top as a bit of filler, rather than hiding out down in the comments, and I'm happy to oblige despite the fact that the Clips are making it very tough to get excited about them these days.

Eric Gordon is far and away the brightest spot on the Clippers at this point, and over the past week he settled into a routinely high level of competency, getting his 15-20 ppg and maintaining virtually all of his averages. He's managing to do this under some duress, as defenses are keeping very close track of him, he hasn't been immune from forcing things just a tad, and there are stretches when he doesn't get the ball quite as much as one would like. The fact that the small forwards were wiped out (Al Thornton, Mardy Collins, Davis who shall not be named) a while ago is making things tougher as well. Still, just one more big game would have nice, and somehow Gordon being just very good is less than exciting.

I think it's safe to say that we're all extremely happy with last year's draft pick. Gordon has been remarkable and outstanding in all sorts of different ways ever since he started getting significant minutes. His lack of early playing time and the Clippers concurrent dismal start, and their subsequently even more dismal play through the rest of the season has hurt his recognition to a degree. but he has made some pretty good progress in that regard.

But I think it's important to remember that at this time last year we were geeked up about Al Thornton, who had such a strong second half. Gordon has been much more impressive than Thornton, in all sorts of different categories, beginning with consistency. I don't think many of us are worried that Gordon will have the same type of disappointing sophomore season like Thornton did this year. Thornton was a great draft pick at the bottom of the lottery, and he does a pretty good job of playing small forward. But he remains inconsistent, and no one would say that he made a huge leap forward this season. He was semi-okay holding down the starting job after Maggette's departure, but he barely managed to consolidate his gains from the end of last season, and that wasn't really good enough. It's too early to give up on Thornton or to think he can't make some significant improvement, but his ceiling has come down quite a bit.

It all seemed relatively clear at this time last year. The weak spots for the Clips were at point guard and shooting guard. If they had won the lottery, they would have taken Derrick Rose. It was assumed that they didn't need a big man, so that left Mayo, Westbrook, and Gordon, and the Clips were extremely happy with their guy, even happier after signing Baron Davis. After Mayo, Gordon was the pure shooting guard. It was a bit of a risk taking Gordon over the combo guards (after Westbrook) like Augustine and Bayless, but after signing Davis and then seeing the way that Gordon performed at SG, it's obvious that the Clips got the right guy.

But what happens this year? This team is fubar on such a massive scale that right now it seems that Eric Gordon is the one and only guy on the team that makes any sense. The only way to approach understanding the Clippers is by looking at them from the bottom up. The rookie is the rock solid player. DJordan and Mike Taylor are good young players, successful 2nd round picks. Brian Skinner showed in the past week that he has some value. Mardy Collins is a nice surprise, and Fred Jones has even greater utility than Collins. That's 5 decent bench players, with Taylor the only one firmly in the rotation. There's also Steve Novak who can do his job, provide excitement, and should have gotten more minutes much earlier in the season.

That's it. The next guy who makes some sense is Thornton. He's obviously not good enough to make a bad team any better, but he can play his position most nights. He might improve slightly in the offseason, and perhaps he will be able to understand his role better and make some good adjustments knowing that he will be playing alongside Gordon.

Randolph probably comes next, because he's not going anywhere with his contract, although the same thing can easily be said with Baron Davis and Chris Kaman. Camby, the least noxious of the 4, is the one who has actual trade value and an expiring contract. We had hoped that these guys could come back from injuries and play together and give some indication of what the future might look like. Instead, we know even less than we did before. I suppose we knew, though we didn't want to admit it, that they would have a lot of trouble trying to stay healthy. Firm confirmation of this fact doesn't exactly provide a blueprint on how to move forward.

So what do the Clippers do going into the draft this year? Best player available seems a good rule of thumb when everything is so confused. Assuming the Clips don't get the top pick, where Griffin is a no-brainer, do you draft a big, a wing, or a pg?

Rubio is enticing, but he could be gone, and picking the next PG (Jennings?) on a team with Baron Davis signed through 2013 and Mike Taylor, with Collins, Jones, and Gordon as 3rd string options, is a tricky proposition.

Jordan Hill's projected upside is "a better rebounding Chris Wilcox," which doesn't sound especially exciting to Clipper fans. Hasheem Thabeet can block shots, but his rough edges duplicate Deandre Jordan's weaknesses--Jordan should progress to give the Clips what Thabeet might, and you don't need two of those guys. Of the two, Jordan Hill makes more sense, but there's a strong fear that he's going to slip into the Wilcox/Melvin Ely mediocrity level, unworthy of a 3rd pick.

And of course, wouldn't you know, there are no outstanding SF prospects in this draft. The threshold is obviously Al Thornton, and no one in the upper reaches of draft prospects looks to be even close to as good as Thornton--and we just took a brief glance at Thornton's limitations.

That leaves James Harden. Harden is an intriguing player, but he's a natural SG--I didn't think that he would be around for the Clips, and he would be perfect, except for the fact that the Clips got the perfect guy last year. Typical for the Clips--the best player available plays the position of arguably their best player. So you have to wonder if Harden can play undersized SF as well as Gordon plays undersized SG, or similar permutations. And the big question is this: is Harden the anti-Thornton, the savvy left-hander who scores points but makes other players better? Here's hoping.

Good thing no one is worried about GM Mike Dunleavy making the right call.