SB Nation User Blog: clack

Astros' Clutch Hitting

clack — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:13:09 -0000

Carlos Lee had an important double in last night's game; and without a doubt, he has been one of the Astros better hitters lately. Lee hit .301 with a .954 OPS in June. Shortly after Lee tied the game last night, Richard Justice's blog sang Lee's praises here. Justice said:

If you're ranking baseball's best clutch hitters, he's on the very, very short list. He's a game-changer in every sense of the word. His two-run double in the bottom of the seventh got the Astros all the way back from a 6-1 deficit into a 6-6 tie.

While I have always considered Lee a good clutch hitter, I sincerely doubt that he is on a "very, very short list." In any event, this spurred me to examine the Astros' clutch hitting.

Now, before I start the discussion, let me mention that the concept of clutch hitting as a "skill" is controversial. A body of research and opinion among sabermetric analysts concludes that clutch hitting doesn't exist, i.e., what appears to be clutch hitting is random variation). Bill James says that the data is insufficient to conclude whether clutch hitting exists or not. And I suspect a number of people agree with him (including me). I'm not going to re-hash these arguments, but rather lay out some measures of clutch hitting so far this season, and take them as they are.

One of the questions in any comparison like this is "how do you define and measure clutch hitting?" Bill James' web site says clutch hitting is like obscenity, "you know it when you see it." And each person might define "clutch" situations differently.

Based on batting average with RISP and RISP/with 2 out, Carlos Lee has hit better in clutch situations in 2008. His OPS with RISP and RISP/2 outs is ..887 and .904, compared to his overall OPS of .866. However, Carlos Lee has an OPS even better with the bases empty, .922, which makes you wonder about reaching many conclusions from the 08 stats. That may be an anomaly, considering that his career OPS with the bases empty is less than his overall OPS. On a career basis, Lee's OPS with RISP and RISP/2 outs is .887 and .870, compared to a career OPS of .842. While Lee does seem to lift his OPS in runner in scoring position situations, that doesn't mean he is on the short list of players you want to bat in that situation. His upper .800's OPS in those situations still does not match the OPS of the elite players in either league who have a career OPS greater than .900.

Bill James' web site (billjamesonline.net; available by subscription) uses a different set of plate appearances to define "clutch," and the OPS for some of the Astros' hitters for that measure of clutch is shown below:

Berkman 1.039

Erstad 1.058

Lee 1.05

Pence .836

Tejada .784

Wigginton .800

Bourn .559

Matsui .659

Ausmus .618

Hardball Times' player stats page shows both BA/RISP and a positive/negative clutch statistic. The clutch statistic appears to be based on the run scoring value of hits and HRs with RISP versus the value in all plate appearances.

(BA/RISP) (Clutch +/-)

Berkman .351 -1.5

Lee .295 -3.2

Tejada .238 -4.9

Bourn .140 -3.9

Pence .268 +1.3

Matsui .300 +0.8

Wigginton .132 -6.4

Wow, Wiggy is terrible on this measure. Though Berkman and Lee have negative clutch numbers, that doesn't mean you don't want them up in clutch situations. This is a comparative clutch value, and in absolute terms they both hit well in RISP situations.

Finally, a completely different way of measuring clutch performance is Win Probability Added (WPA) at fangraphs.com. This stat is based on the change in the team's probability of winning games after each of the batter's plate appearances. Large shifts in WPA can occur at almost any point in a game, and it is a way of determining how many moments a hitter had which were pivotal to the outcome of games.

In terms of WPA, Berkman has been the best in baseball this year. Berkman is No. 1 in the majors so far with a 5.01 WPA. Lee is 18th in the majors with a WPA of 2.02. I don't know if 18th qualifies for "short list" as Richard Justice uses the term or not.

The top WPA hitters on the Astros, after Berkman and Lee: Ty Wigginton, 0.34; Matsui, 0.34; Loretta, 0.30; Erstad, 0.08. The worst WPA hitters on the Astros: Quintero, -0.33; Towles, -0.36; Tejada, -0.56; Ausmus, -0.9; Bourn -1.76.

What to conclude...other than the fact that there are different ways to measure clutch? If the Astros have faced a clutch situation, Berkman, Lee, and Erstad have been good players to bat. Tejada has been a disappointment in those situations. Bourn has been absolutely terrible in clutch situations, on virtually every measure. Unfortunately, Bourn seems to face a lot of clutch situations from the lead off spot, later in games. (Bourn faced the 5th most clutch situations on the team, according to Bill James' measure of clutch.) The resutls are mixed on some other players. Wigginton, in particular, appears very bad on some clutch measures, but decent on others.

Coop has plan for 93 wins Astros manager Cecil Cooper scribbles on a scrap piece of paper and do...

clack — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 16:18:43 -0000

Coop has plan for 93 wins
Astros manager Cecil Cooper scribbles on a scrap piece of paper and does some elementary math. He's certain his team will have a big second half and is trying to determine what it will take to get to 93 wins.

Cooper comes to the conclusion the Astros could go roughly 45-22 after the All-Star break and hit the finish line of the regular season at 93 wins. Poof. Right where they want to be.
http://blogs.chron.com/gamedayastros/2008/06/coop_has_plan_for_93_wins.html

R.I.P. George Carlin...and recall his tribute to baseball

clack — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 15:57:43 -0000

Link As most of you know, comedian George Carlin died. I am a big fan of Carlin's humor. Unlike a lot of comedians, he was not a "flash in the pan" or a passing fad. He was a symbol of the tumultuous 70's. But in each subsequent decade, he continued to be one of the great comedians for succeeding generations. I remember seeing him on stage at the Paramount Theater in Austin during the late 1980s. One reason for his enduring appeal was his ability to dissect language and social customs with his humor. Carlin had one of the great all time monologues about baseball. (So, I am getting around to the subject of this web site.)

A search produced the linked web site which has Carlin's complete monologue on Baseball. The most frequently remembered part of this monologue is the way Carlin contrasts football and baseball, with his style of delivery making clear his preference for the social implications of baseball. Here are a few parts of that monologue:

Baseball is a nineteenth-century pastoral game.	Football is a twentieth-century technological struggle.
Baseball is played on a diamond, in a park. The baseball park!	Football is played on a GRIDIRON, in a STADIUM, sometimes called SOLDIER FIELD or WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM.
Baseball begins in the spring, the season of new life.	Football begins in the fall, when everything is dying.
In football you wear a helmet	In baseball you wear a cap.

Football has hitting, clipping, spearing, piling on, personal fouls, late hitting, and unnecessary roughness.

Baseball has the sacrifice.

Baseball has the seventh-inning stretch.	Football has the two-minute warning
Baseball has no time limit: "We don't know when it's gonna end!"	Football is rigidly timed, and it will end "even if we have to go to sudden death."

In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.

In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"

Starting Rotation: Backe or Chacon?

clack — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 02:46:13 -0000

The Astros decided to call up veteran pitcher Runelvys Hernandez from Round Rock to start in Friday's game against the Red Sox. This means someone is knocked out of the rotation, and that someone turns out to be Shawn Chacon. Shawn wasn't too happy about it. He called the decision horse-feathers or, at least, something close to that term. Chacon's public reaction to Cooper's decision seemed pretty blunt. But it's hard for the Astros to hold that against him, considering that Cooper just finished telling the world a week or so ago that players should be allowed to say whatever they want. Coop's support for players' first amendment rights followed public criticism of his lineup decisions by Roy Oswalt during the last homestand.

Cooper seemed to frame this decision as the only one available to him. However, my immediate reaction was that an equally good case could be made for moving Backe out of the rotation instead. Backe made the decision look good in Sunday's game at Tampa Bay by pitching very well. However, since the decision was made prior to that start, I will compare Chacon and Backe based on the information available prior to Sunday's game. As I look at their stats, it turns out that Backe and Chacon are having a remarkably similar season, though neither pitcher has performed well, overall, this season.

If I'm making the decision, one of the more important stats would be Fielding Independent Pitching, because it removes some luck factors from the runs allowed per game. FIP focuses on what the pitcher can control. And, here, Chacon has been better than Backe. According to the Hardball Times, Chacon's FIP is 5.60 and Backe's is 6.02. In terms of RA/G, Chacon is 5.46 and Backe is 5.20. Neither number is anything to write home about.

As it turns out, Backe's and Chacon's stats on the year are very similar. Backe gives up more HRs and hits, while Chacon gives up more walks. Chacon had a slightly higher ERA going into Sunday's game. As for similarity, here's what I mean (again, stats don't include Sunday's game):

Backe Chacon

ERA 4.99 5.04

WHIP 1.58 1.51

HR/9 2.06 1.68

BB/9 4.01 4.31

K/G 5.9 5.5

GB % 37.7 36.6

BABIP .290 .282

One significant difference between the two is that Brandon Backe has been better with Runners in Scoring Position. Backe has allowed a .238 BA and .769 OPS with RISP. Chacon has allowed a .333 BA and 1.093 OPS with RISP. This is a significant difference which undeniably affected the outcome of games. However, there is a line of thinking that a significant difference between RISP and regular hitting stats is mostly attributable to luck, and that Backe and Chacon are likely to experience a regression to the mean (in opposite directions), in terms of RISP stats. Then, again, the question of "clutch pitching" hasn't been studied very much.

Given that Chacon and Backe have pitched similarly this year, another factor which weighs in Backe's favor is that Brandon has been a much better starter than relief pitcher during his career. Backe's career ERA as a reliever is a full run higher (5.51 vs. 4.51) than as a starter. Chacon on the other hand has a history of significant relief roles (both as closer and 8th inning set up reliever). Chacon had a good 3.52 ERA for the Pirates last year when he pitched in relief. So, if one of the two has to go to the bullpen, Chacon might be the better choice.

Hernandez, who is also the same age as Chacon and Backe, had a 3.75 ERA as a starter at Round Rock. Reportedly his velocity was in the 95 mph range. He has pitched excellent ball in the last month. I like the idea of fitting a hard throwing pitcher into the rotation in the middle of all of the lower velocity starters. Oswalt is the only other Astros' starter who consistently throws above 90. However, given Hernandez's checkered history in the major leagues, putting him in the rotation is a long shot. But the Astros have to take long shots now. It is very possible that Hernandez will fail in this role. So, Shawn don't give up on being a starter, you might end up in the rotation later on.

Cooper and the Astros Clubhouse

clack — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 20:55:04 -0000

In some of the posts over the last few days, we have wondered if Cecil Cooper's style is wearing on the Astros' players in a negative way. Cooper's "tough talk" to the media about his team has struck me as potentially counter-productive. Oswalt's public comments about the reserve-filled team which started Sunday was an indicator that things might not be going well between the manager and his players.

Now, Jose Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle says that the Astros' clubhouse has become "toxic." http://blogs.chron.com/baseballblog/archives/2008/06/toxic_time_for.html

This anonymous quote doesn't sound good:

"It's real bad in here," a player told me as soon as I got into the clubhouse Tuesday to try to get an unbiased opinion to the comments I read in the paper Monday from Roy Oswalt and Cecil Cooper. "It's not going to get better."

According to Ortiz, the players openly second guess Cooper and Robinson on their in game decisions.

Jon Stewart on Willie Randolph's firing

clack — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 18:03:46 -0000

Jon Stewart on Willie Randolph's firing

If Oswalt has his way, Pettitte won't have such a long drive next spring. "I've actually been ...

clack — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 21:30:13 -0000

If Oswalt has his way, Pettitte won't have such a long drive next spring.

"I've actually been kind of campaigning to get him back one more year, but I don't know what he's going to do," Oswalt said.

At least publicly, Pettitte isn't saying if he'll be willing to pitch in 2009. In his first news conference of spring training, he admitted he would have stepped away from baseball if the Yankees had told him they didn't want him back after he admitted to using HGH twice, once while with them, then in 2004 while with the Astros.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/5834685.html

An Update on Defensive Metrics for the Astros

clack — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 18:02:26 -0000

Over a month ago, I wrote an article, based on the Hardball Times' Revised Zone Rating (RZR), describing the Astros' apparent defensive improvement during the first month or so of the season. LINK I have been meaning to update the range-based defensive metrics to see if the Astros' positive trend is continuing.

Maybe this is as good as any time to look at the defensive metrics. The Astros have been losing on this homestand so far, and this article diverts my attention to a more abstract subject. Also, we have information from additional methodologies to add to the mix. Mitchel Lichtman released selected data from his Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) system. LINK In additional Bill James' web site publishes information (subscription basis) based on John Dewan's +/- system (made famous by the book, The Fielding Bible). So, we can check some of the RZR results for consistency with other methods. As always, the sample size caveat applies this early in the season.

The Astros' poor record in 2007 has been attributed, in part, to the team's bad defense, which made the team's pitching worse than it should be. The Astros' management acknowledged the team's defensive shortcomings in 2007 and vowed, during the off-season, to improve the team's defense. The primary changes in personnel to accomplish that improvement : adding Bourn to CF and moving Pence to RF; replacing a Loretta/Bruntlett platoon at shortstop (after Everett's injury) with Tejada; replacing Biggio at 2d base with Kaz Matsui; and adding two good glove players (Erstad and Blum) to the bench. Before the season started, it's fair to say that many posters on this board (including me) were skeptical that the changes would be enough to result in a good defensive team.

However, the RZR results after the first month were consistent with a greatly improved defense. Although the Astros' team RZR results have slipped slightly, in absolute terms, since my first article, the Astros continue to have the third best RZR ranking in the NL, behind only the Cardinals and Padres. (Hardball Times team stats here.) The Astros infield RZR is ranked 3d and the outfield RZR is ranked 4th.

The Astros' team UZR results (expressed in runs above or below average) indicate a NL ranking of 5th. Lichtman's blog shows the difference between actual team UZR results so far and the UZR results he would have projected for the team during the preseason. The Astros' difference between actual results and preseason projection (29 runs) is the second largest among ML teams. The Astros' defense is 14 runs above average so far, and Lichtman says he would have projected 15 runs below average at this point. So, UZR's results confirm that the Astros' defense has performed a lot better than we expected. The Astros' UZR result suggests that the team ERA might be roughly 4.59, instead of the actual 4.34 ERA, if the team had not played above average defense. (Note that a 4.59 ERA would be close to the team's Fielding Independent Pitching rate of 4.56.) Without the defensive improvement, the Astros NL ERA ranking would fall from 6th to last.

St. Louis' excellent defense so far this season has allowed that team to achieve a good 3.90 ERA, despite a spotty starting pitching corps. The Astros' pitching staff has also been shaky, and it is scary to think where the team would be without the defensive improvement. However, the Achilles Heel of the Astros' pitching this season has been the home run; the Astros are currently on a record setting pace for allowing home runs. Unfortunately, the fielders can do very little to help the pitchers avoid home runs. (Michael Bourn provided a rare example of doing so in the last Brewers games, when he made a spectacular play on a long fly to deep center which appeared on its way out of the ballpark.) If the Astros defense regresses very much, as some people might expect, the quality of pitching could become very bad. I can't say if the defense will regress or not, but it is something to think about when we see the next critical defensive misplay cost the Astros a game.

Here are the individual Astros player results. The Dewan +/- results ("Fielding Bible" method) are expressed as major league rankings, while the RZR results are expressed as NL rankings. Lichtman only provides "top 5" and "bottom 5" individual rankings (major leagues); so I can only reference a UZR top 5 or bottom 5 result.

(RZR NL rank; Fielding Bible ML rank; UZR rank, if known)

1st base. Berkman: 1st; 1st; 2d.

2d base: Matsui: 8th; 22d; tied for last

3d base: Wigginton: 7th; 29th; unknown.

Shortstop: Tejada: 1st; 11th; 3d.

LF: Lee: 10th (last); 10th (above average); unknown.

CF: Bourn: 5th; 3d; unknown.

RF: Pence: 2d; 2d; unknown.

How much more can Lance Berkman do? He is having an incredible offensive season. And, by every account (including my observation, as well as the metrics), he is playing superb, gold glove quality defense at first base. If he keeps this up, he should be considered a definite league MVP candidate. Although Berkman has played worse defense in previous seasons, I know of no physical reason why he can't continue his excellent defense. A guy who has started in CF and RF earlier in his career should be capable of playing good defense at 1st base.

Matsui's defense has been disappointing, particularly given his good fielding last season. Based on what I have seen, Matsui's main problems have arisen from trying to make the impossible play. He also has committed too many errors. However, Matsui has also made some spectacular, acrobatic defensive plays, which indicate that he is capable of moving upward in the defensive rankings by season end.

Tejada has provided much better defense at shortstop than we expected based upon the reports out of Baltimore that he had diminished range. RZR ranks him the best shortstop in the NL. However, considering both out of zone plays and RZR, Atlanta's Escobar may be playing better defense than Tejada.

Wigginton and Lee have both been predictable weak links in the defense. Wigginton is mediocre, according to RZR, while the Dewan +/- system indicates that he may be one of the worst 3d baseman in the majors. At least, neither Lee or Wiggy were in the bottom 5 of the UZR rankings. Lee is the worst NL LFer, according to RZR, but he is slightly above average (+2), according to Dewan's system.

Based on observation, Bourn would seem to be the biggest improvement in the Astros' defense; I'm sure that sense is enhanced by the thrill of seeing world class speed racing in the outfield. Bourn is ranked as the 5th best NL CFer, according to RZR. He is the 3d best CFer in both leagues, according to Dewan's system. Bourn's RZR results have shown the most decline since my article last month.

Moving Pence from CF to RF has proven to be a very good decision. Pence was a decent, but not great, defensive centerfielder. He is now one of the best defensive RFers in the major leagues.

I'll try to update these defensive results later in the year.

Paulino, who suffered a pinched nerve in his upper right arm in the spring, had another setback a...

clack — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 20:34:17 -0000

Paulino, who suffered a pinched nerve in his upper right arm in the spring, had another setback and is only playing light catch.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/5828414.html

Towles Sent to Round Rock

clack — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 12:20:26 -0000

Towles demoted to AAA and Quintero recalled.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/5822062.html

The reason for the move is fairly obvious. The only question is whom to call up as a replacement, Quintero or J.R. House. Quintero is the safer replacement, since House's defensive ability at catcher is questionable. Cooper says that Ausmus will be the primary starter over Quintero. I know Quintero didn't have good hitting stats at Round Rock, but I'm kind of surprised that Quintero won't get more starts, given Ausmus' age and known offensive liability.