SB Nation User Blog: clack

Valverde puts himself in a bad market...and how that affects the Astros

clack — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 14:41:43 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Houston Astros closer Jose Valverde let his emotions rule, according to Rosenthal.

The title on FoxSports Rosenthal's article says it all, "Too many closers not enough jobs." With several teams, including the Astros, acquiring their closers, not enough good paying closer jobs remain, and quite a few potential closers remain on the market. As Rosenthal says, this game of musical chairs will not end well for somebody.

Former Astros closer Jose Valverde is the cream of the crop. But Rosenthal's commentary is interesting:

Jose Valverde. His problem is not performance,,,No, Valverde’s problem is that he is a Type A free agent who rejected his team’s offer of salary arbitration. His decision, in part, was fueled by emotion; Valverde, one friend said, was upset with the Astros for declining to sign him long-term.

Thus, he made a personal decision, if not -- perhaps -- the best business move...Teams are interested. They have to be interested. The question is at what price.

Rosenthal points out that the teams which are looking for closers now--Tigers, Nationals, and Padres--are in a cost cutting mode. He suspects that some closers may have to take set up jobs on teams with bigger budgets.

Since Valverde appears to be gone for good, what does this have to do with the Astros? Well, the Astros offered arbitration in order to get a 1st and sandwich (between 1st and 2d) round draft pick for Valverde's Type A status. And the market issues for Valverde could put that draft plum at risk. Entering a weak market with the draft compensation weight around his neck, Valverde may end up signing with a bottom 15 team (like the Nationals) which cannot lose its 1st round pick. In that situation, the Astros would only get the sandwich pick. Or perhaps he becomes more attractive to big market teams after those teams have already lost their first round pick by signing a Type A free agent. It's possible that the the Astros only receive a 2d or 3d round pick in that situation. The worst case scenario (for both the Astros and Valverde) is that he insists on too much money or too many years, and doesn't sign until after the next amateur draft (at which point he loses the compensation requirement) in which case the Astros get nothing. I don't think that is likely at all. But I should mention the worst case scenario.

It's tempting to say that the Astros should have waited on acquiring a closer until later in the off-season because the market will get weaker. Perhaps there is some merit to this view. But I see two counters to that argument. First, Wade had to find out what he would spend on the closer before he could know what he can spend on anyone else. I can understand Wade's quandry, and subsequent desire to resolve the late inning questions first. Second, the Astros' decision to take Lyon and Lindstrom off the market has a lot to do with creating the market glut. When the market has so few players and teams, removing one team and two players has a significant effect.

Another Fangraphs article mentions Paulino

clack — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 14:18:45 -0000

This recent Fangraphs article ("I hate to travel in winter: on Gio Gonzalez and Felipe Paulino") looks at tRA* and tRA to rank starting pitchers' true performance last season. After noting the expected top 10 rankings for pitchers like Lincecum and Carpenter, the article expresses surprise that two young pitchers with bad ERAs last year, Gio Gonzalez and Felipe Paulino, are ranked as 44th and 45th on the starting pitchers list.

Gonzalez and Paulino are virtually identical in tRA* and tRA, which indicates a regressed tRA* of 4.42 for both pitchers. The tRA statistics are (in theory) a more granular version of Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), because it takes into account the types of batted balls (line drive, type of flyball, grounder, etc.) hit off the pitcher. The 4.42 result is based on runs allowed, and therefore is substantially higher than the equivalent ERA. The author notes that Gonzalez and Paulino rank higher than big names like Lackey and Lee.

All systems are go for Paulino, according to the article. This is another indication that Felipe Paulino experienced a lot of bad luck last year, and may be poised for improvement next season.The result implies that Paulino could see particular improvement in his results if the defense behind him improves. (You may recall that I wrote an article which concluded the same thing at the end of the season, prior to the various Fangraphs' articles which featured Paulino.) The article provides an opportunity to register a fan projection for Paulino, if you like.

McLane almost sold the Astros after the 2008 season

clack — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 02:40:46 -0000

More photos » by Bob Levey - AP

Houston Astros' Kazuo Matsui, of Japan, right, receives congratulations from Houston Astros owner Drayton McLane Jr.. (AP Photo/Bob Levey)

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This is a pretty big news story for the Chronicle. J.J. Ortiz writes that Drayton McLane admits that he had a handshake deal to sell the Astros to businessman Jim Crane last year. However, the deal fell through as the economy hit the rocks. Interestingly, we had read rumors that the Astros were for sale, but McLane continually denied the rumors...and it really seemed like just rumors. Ortiz's article highlights the fact that McLane now admits something he once said was false.

Richard Justice also gets in on the action, talking about the telephone call from Drayton McLane admitting that the sale had almost occurred. One wonders which reporter got this scoop, and how it got parceled out, since Ortiz has the copywrighted news article on the subject. Justice says he "almost passed out" when Drayton told him that he had a deal to sell the Astros. Drayton had a nice line for Justice:

''I've never sought a buyer,'' he said, ''but I listen. Wouldn't you listen if the New York Times called?''

Justice's article reminisces on McLane's tenure as owner almost as if McLane is already gone. Apparently he justifies that tact by saying that, if McLane was willing to sell the club then, he will be willing to do so in the future. I'm not so sure about that. Justice also claims that some of the team executives quickly signed contracts to protect themselves in the event that a new owner wanted to bring in new employees.

From the fan's perspective, this leads you to ask "what would have been?" last off-season if the team had been sold. Maybe Randy Wolf gets signed instead of Hampton. Justice wonders if McLane's ordered budget cut is an effort to strip the team's expenses to make it more attractive to buyers. Note, however, that McLane was only selling 51% of the team; he apparently would have remained as part owner. And, in the last two years, I have wondered if Astros' fans would be better off if McLane had a new partner who might bring additional money to the table. The frustrating thing about the McLane ordered budget cuts is that the 2009 budget only needed $10 - $15 million to be much more competitive--and interesting.

Oh, and in a related news, the Greenberg group (which includes Nolan Ryan) was selected over the Gilbert-Crane group to negotiate for purchase of the Rangers. And, yes, that's the same Crane who wanted to buy the Astros.

Any thoughts?

Looking for optimism in the Feliz signing

clack — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 16:09:37 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

J.R. Towles looks on after Feliz hit a grand slam against the Astros last year. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Although Pedro Feliz is an excellent defensive third baseman, his offense is more flawed. Feliz fits the profile of a lower batting average, low OBP hitter, whose saving offfensive feature is the ability to hit a decent number of HRs (averages 18 HR/season). Since Feliz's HR totals declined in 09, critics point to a likely decline in power as Feliz heads into his mid-30's. So, I will take a look at Feliz's offense to see if we can find any reason for optimism. This article isn't about making a projection for Feliz--if you want that, you can look at CHONE, Bill James, and ZIPS projections, all of which project a slight improvement in Feliz's offense over 2009--but rather trying to find some glimmers of hope that Feliz could provide a better offensive contribution than we expect.

ZIPS shows the two top comparable players to Feliz are Vinny Castilla and Tim Wallach. Castilla is an interesting comparable, in part because of the similarity between the situation surrounding the acquistion of Feliz and Castilla by the Astros. The Astros brought Castilla in as a one year "fix" at the 3d base position in 2001, after young prospects were disappointments at that position. Castilla, a slick fielding 3d baseman, appeared to be in the midst of an offensive decline at the age of 33, but he ended up resurrecting his career with the Astros, hitting 23 HRs and posting a .812 OPS. Castilla's bumpy offensive performance in his mid-30's is illustrated by his HRs totals between ages of 33 and 36: 23, 12, 22, and 35. Castilla had one of his best offensive seasons when he went back to Coors Field at the age of 36 and hit 35 HRs, with 131 RBIs. Tim Wallach had declining offense in Montreal at ages 32-35, and then rebounded as a Dodger at ages 36-37 with an OPS+ of 127 and 106. These two comparable players illustrate that the declining impact of age is not always a straight line, but often a jagged line that includes rebounding offense.

If you wanted to hold out hope for a rebound season for Feliz, I think the possibility of a change in scenery, specifically the ballpark, can rejuvenate a player. Castilla's rebound years after moving to MMP and then Coors Field late in his career might be examples. Feliz is pull hitter to LF; 24 of his 26 HRs over the last two years were hit to LF. And, of course, MMP's Crawford Boxes are only 315 feet away in LF. A player's ballpark stats should be taken with a grain of salt, mostly due to sample size, as well as the inability to control for the quality of opposing pitchers. However, setting aside that warning, I think we can see why Feliz said he liked his trips to Houston as an opposing player. His career triple slash line in Minute Maid Park is quite good:

.301, .326, .530, OPS--.856

In fact, among NL parks only Coors Field (.949) and Nationals Park are better for Feliz, in terms of OPS.

Since the bulk of Feliz's hitting with Houston will be in NL Central ballparks, it might be interesting to look at his offensive output in those ball fields over his career. The statistics below: OPS / HR/PA /PA

MMP	.856	.058	86
GAB	.830	.028	71
Miller	.755	.056	106
Wrigley	.734	..044	89
Busch II	.747	.028	36
PNC	.536	0	75
Feliz Career.	.715	.032	4115
NL Central parks	.745	.039	463

By way of commparison, a .05/PA HR rate is equivalent to 30 home runs per season. Except for the Bucs' PNC park, Feliz's OPS in all of the NL Central parks has been above his career level. PNC, which is far below his career level, also has a huge LF, which probably accounts for his zero HR rate there. Frankly, I'm not sure how much stock to put into this comparison. But it is interesting. And if you want to grab on to a slice of evidence, whether meaningful or not, this could suggest that Feliz might find the NL Central ballparks to his liking.

I have heard some fans suggest that Feliz may be a good clutch hitter, which means his offensive contribution may be greater than his average statistics would indicate. Lately, I have stayed away from situational hitting stats in evaluating potential acquistions, mostly because the concept of clutch hitting is controversial in the sabermetric community and use of clutch offensive stats are subject to sample size issues. However, we do know that some players (Carlos Lee is an example) have shown offensive results in RBI situations which are better than their ovreall hitting stats. We can also test whether Feliz's offense has been better in certain Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) situations.

Selected Situations (OPS)

Feliz Career

RISP .749

RISP, 2 outs .769

Bases Loaded .848

Men On .738

Feliz 2009

RISP .869

RISP, 2 outs ..879

Bases Loaded .952

Men On .848

Setting aside whether clutch hitting is repeatable, the statistics indicate that Feliz was a very good clutch hitter in 2009 and has generally hit better in clutch situations over his career in comparison to his overall OPS. We don't know if this means anything in terms of how Feliz will hit in the clutch in 2010, but at least we know he has been reasonably successful in that role in the past.

So there you have it. You want a few shreds of evidence to make you feel a little more hopeful about Pedro Feliz? Maybe I have helped out.

My first reaction: Feliz isn't a bad choice.

clack — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:31:44 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Feliz in the World Series...now an Astros 3d sacker?

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Twitter from McTaggert reports that the Astros have signed Philly 3d baseman Pedro Feliz. Whether this is a good or bad move might depend on the salary and term of the contract which is currently undisclosed.(Update: $4.5 mil for 1 year...not bad at all) Generally, Feliz isn't my top choice for third base, but I don't think he is a bad choice, given the Astros current in house options. Feliz has some power but his on base skills are poor. He would be a fine addition to a team with decent overall OBP, but that's not a description of the Astros. Feliz's value is enhanced considerably by his defense. He is one of the best defensive third basemen in the majors. And he will help Astros' pitchers with good groundball rates. Feliz is a dead pull hitter to LF, and he might find the Crawford Boxes quite to is liking. Feliz only hit one HR last year which wasn't to LF. Over his career, Feliz's left/right splits are approximately the same (OPS). Last year, Feliz's OBP was somewhat better against RHP. In 86 PA in MMP over his career, Feliz has a .856 OPS with 5 homers.

Next question: does this hurt Keppinger's chances of staying with the Astros? I hope he isn't non-tendered, but the possibility might exist. In my view, Keppinger is necessary as the only true shortstop back up to Manzella, or a replacement for Manzella if he can't cut it.

Astros don't lose Clemens or Locke in Rule 5 draft

clack — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:28:32 -0000

Astros don't lose Clemens or Locke in Rule 5 draft

Neither Koby Clemens or Drew Locke was drafted in the Rule 5. That's good. The Astros lost two "organization players" in the minor league phase of the draft. The Astros drafted outfielder Jorge Jiminez from the Red Sox on behalf of the Marlins (as part of the Lindstrom trade).

Minor League Contract Signings

clack — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 05:40:41 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

5 months ago: Seattle Mariners' Chris Shelton hits an RBI single against the Texas Rangers during the seventh inning of a baseball game in Seattle on Sunday, July 12, 2009. The Mariners won 5-3. (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

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The Astros announced minor league contracts for eight players. The signees: Casey Daigle, Ray Sadowski, Gary Majewski, Roy Corcoran, and Chris Shelton. Some of the players, like Sadowski and Daigle, have already been mentioned in previous posts here. Majewski, a former Houston schoolboy star, was a very good relief pitcher at one time (posting an ERA below 3 in 2005), but the popular story is that the Nats and Reds overworked him, leaving his arm in bad shape. My recollection is that the Reds talked about filing a complaint against the Nationals after he was traded to the Reds in 2006. His performance hasn't been good since then, but he did have a 3.45 FIP last year for the Phillies' AAA team. Corcoran is another relief pitcher who has had good years as a major leaguer (3.22 ERA in 2008). He was DFA'd by the Mariners during last season, and was picked up by the Astros and pitched decently in 19 relief innings for Round Rock. Corcoran and Majewski have something else in common: they both induce lots of groundballs. Most likely these two guys will provide some depth for the reliever corps by pitching in Round Rock. Since we have discussed Sadowski previously, I won't go back over the details of his Cinderella story with the Giants last year. But he also provides some depth for the starting pitching group. Sadowski is another sinker ball pitcher who can induce groundballs; perhaps we see a pitching characteristic which the Astros value. I assume Corcoran, Majewski, and Sadowski will all be allowed to make an impression during spring training, giving them hope that they can take a long shot at the opening day 25 man roster.

Chris Shelton is an intriguing pick up, mostly because of his legitimate power potential. One of the obstacles he has faced is the lack of defensive ability, which makes him a 1st baseman or DH. AstroAndy mentioned Shelton as a possible Astros target a few months ago; he pointed out that Shelton had actually been given some work at 3d base with the Mariners' farm team. I'm not sure he can be more than an emergency back up at 3d base...but if he could find a way to play the hot corner decently, he might increases his chances at making the major league squad. In any event, Shelton could be a legitimate power threat off the bench--and that is something the Astros have lacked in the past. Shelton made a name for himself in 2006 as a Tigers Rule 5 pick, when he set a historic HR pace to begin the season, with 9 HRs in the first 13 games of the season. Shelton was used briefly as a pinch hitter by the Mariners last year and garnered a game winning hit in an extra inning game. Shelton's line in AAA Tacoma last season: .314, .397, .509,.906. Most likely Shelton plays in Round Rock next year, but if he can impress with his offense in the spring, he might be another long shot for the Astros' bench.

Astros sign SF pitcher Sadowski

clack — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 19:24:22 -0000

Astros sign SF pitcher Sadowski

The Astros signed Giants starting pitcher Ryan Sadowski, whom is surely remembered by the Astros as the rookie pitcher who shut them out for 7 innings in San Francisco. Sadowski was a mid-season "story line," because he was an unheralded six year minor leaguer who began his major league career with over 16 shut out innings as a starter. He later fell to earth and was sent back to AAA. I assume this is a starting pitcher acquired for "depth."

Footer: Valverde offered arbitration

clack — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:00:01 -0000

Footer: Valverde offered arbitration

Footer tweets that Valverde was offered arbitration but Hawkins and Tejada were not.

Cardinals Fans Try to Figure Out Wandy the Cardinal Killer

clack — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:40:46 -0000

Cardinals Fans Try to Figure Out Wandy the Cardinal Killer

This article at Cardinals' blog Vivaelbirdos.com aims to figure out why Wandy Rodriguez shuts down Albert Pujols. Interesting effort to interpret the Pitch f/x data. Pujols has a .523 career OPS against Wandy.