SB Nation User Blog: clack

Carlos Lee isn't going anywhere....

clack — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:22:40 -0000

The New York Post, attempting to aid a Mets' team desperate for a slugging outfielder, investigates whether Carlos Lee is available. Ed Wade put the kabosh on that idea:

“He is going to be our left fielder. He has a complete no-trade clause and he has made it very, very clear that he does not want to go anywhere.”

That makes it sound like the Astros asked Lee if he could be traded, and he "made it very, very clear" that the answer is "no."

The reporter was further disheartened when a Mets' official told him a great big surprise: Carlos Lee isn't a good defensive player. As the article states:

As if this option needed to be shot down any more, I ran it by a Mets official who said Lee has become such an atrocious left fielder that he would be too much of a nightmare defensively even with his power.

I don't suppose there is anything that I didn't know or surmise here. But I have to admit that with every article I had read which said that the Mets will acquire a power hitter, come hell or high water, a seed of hope arose in the deep recesses of my mind that maybe, just maybe, Carlos Lee might agree to go to the Big Apple. It's not that I dislike Carlos Lee. He seems like an affable fellow. And he is a consistently good hitter. But if his payroll were to disappear from left field, it would create great flexibility to improve the team's pitching and defense.

Source: Bourn Wins Gold Glove

clack — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:08:04 -0000

Source: Bourn Wins Gold Glove

The web site "True Blue LA" claims to have inside information on the NL Gold Glove winners. Michael Bourn is a gold glove winner in the outfield, according to that web site's list.
Since this was first posted, Astros GM Ed Wade confirms that Bourn won a Gold Glove.

Astros' offense at 3d base and shortstop in the 2000's

clack — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 21:34:42 -0000

Let's look at what kind of offense the Astros have gotten from the left side of the infield in this decade. This idea for this post came to mind after I commented on HLP's article about Tommy Manzella taking over the shortstop position next year, making that position defense-first, like it was in the Adam Everett era. My comment pointed out that Everett generally was accompanied by a stronger offensive performance at 3d base than the Astros received last season. As I cogitated, I realized that the Astros generally have had "either / or" offensive performance from shortstop and 3d base. By that, I mean either the shortstop or 3d baseman is a good offensive player--but not both. That may be by design, or perhaps just the way things turned out.

To examine this tendency, I used Baseball-Reference's OPS+ for the Astros' third base and shortstop positions for each year 2002 - 2009. The stats are based on the offense of all the Astros hitters who played the position. As most of you know, OPS+ is a park adjusted index relative to league wide OPS. !00 is the base, with lessor and higher values reflecting above or below average OPS performance. I also calculate an average for the two positions to get an idea of the combined offense from the two positions.

OPS+
year	3d base	shortstop	average
02	122	91	107
03	110	89	100
04	99	93	96
05	140	77	109
06	101	75	88
07	82	95	89
08	85	105	95
09	76	116	96

Do you detect a pattern here? Generally 3d base was the stronger offensive position until 2007 (when Everett suffered a season end broken flbula), when the Loretta - Bruntlett offense at shortstop was better than third base, where coincidently Ensberg's offense fell off a cliff. With the trade for Tejada, the 2008 and 2009 shortstop position dominated offensively and the 3d base position became the weak offensive position. The combined offense of shortstop and 3d base was decent through 2005, but the positions' combined offensive contribution fell off in 06 and 07. Whatever faults one might see with the Tejada trade, the acquisition was successful in pushing the combined offense of shortstop and 3d base closer to the level which prevailed prior to 2006.

The only season in which the 3d base and shortstop were roughly the same in offense was 2004. Mike Lamb and an injured Morgan Ensberg shared time at 3d base, combining for league average offense. Adam Everett had his best offensive year, with a .706 OPS, but suffered a late season injury, and was replaced by Jose Vizcaino, who had a hot streak.

The best single seasons of combined offense were 2002 and 2005 (when the Astros went to the World Series). The 2002 season featured one of Geoff Blum's best season (OPS of .807) and a decent offensive performance by Julio Lugo (.710 OPS). The 2005 season featured an out-of-this-world offensive performance by Morgan Ensberg (.945 OPS), which more than made up for the first of several sluggish offensive seasons by Adam Everett (OPS of .653). Both of the highest offensive seasons at shortstop were associated with Tejada's two seasons in 08 and 09. Unfortunately, the Blum - Wigginton platoon in 2008 was only a slight improvement over the tumultuous 3d base situation in 2007. The 3d base performance declined further in 2009 when Keppinger replaced Wigginton in the platoon.

If Manzella takes over 3d base in 2010, and the shortstop OPS+ returns to the Everett levels of 05 - 06--perhaps an OPS+ of 75-- then the combined OPS+ is likely to be the worst of the decade for the Astros---unless the Astros retain Tejada at 3d base or acquire another offensive upgrade at 3d base. A return of the Blum - Keppinger platoon would likely put the combined OPS+ at 80 or lower, which would be even worse than the losing season of 2007, which cost manager Phil Garner his job. Although one can hope for a breakthrough season by rookie Chris Johnson, the more likely scenario is that he would produce an OPS+ no higher than the Blum - Keppinger platoon.

In case you are wondering about the photograph for this article, that is Adam Everett of the Detroit Tigers.

Brewers Trade Hardy for Gomez

clack — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:49:17 -0000

We've had some discussion about the Astros possibly trying to trade for J.J. Hardy or sign him after a non-tender. Not happening. The Brewers traded Hardy to the Twins for CFer Carlos Gomez. Gomez is a speed demon and tremendous CFer, but his offensive output, or lack thereof, has frustrated the Twins. (Recall that Gomez was the principal prospect sought from the Mets in exchange for Johan Santana.) The discussion at BBTF here seems to reflect a consensus that the Twins got the best of this deal...or else, the Brewers just wanted something in exchange for a player who would otherwise be non-tendered. Also the BBTF discusion seems to assume that this means last year was Cameron's last as a Brewer.

Bill James' Projections for Selected Astros' Hitters

clack — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:53:06 -0000

Previously, I wrote about the Bill James Projections for selected Astros' pitchers. Today, I will look at the Bill James projections for selected Astros' hitters. Below, we compare the 2010 projection for OBP, OPS, RC/G with the player's actual stats from 2009. RC/G is "runs created per game," which is based on a Bill James' formula for estimating a player's total offensive contribution. RC/G is an interesting format because it is the theoretical runs per game a team would score if its lineup was composed only of players whose offensive performance is exactly like this player's.

OBP, OPS, RC/G

Michael Bourn

Projection .341, .701, 4.57

2009 .354, .738, 5.6

Hunter Pence

Projection .351, .860, 6.29

2009 .346, .816, 5.1

Carlos Lee

Projection .351, .853, 6.34

2009 .343, .832, 5.7

Lance Berkman

Projection .406, .924, 7.46

2009 .399, .907, 7.2

Miguel Tejada

Projection .342, .791, 5.45

2009 .336, .795, 5.0

Geoff Blum

Projection .297, .657, 3.54

2009 .314, .681, 3.9

Jeff Keppinger

Projection .348, .743, 4.98

2009 .320, .707, 3.7

Chris Johnson

Projection .300, .725, 4.49

2009 .130, .221, 0.00

Kaz Matsui

Projection .317, .696, 4.22

2009 .302, .659, 3.9

Humberto Quintero

Projection .286, .644, 3.4

2009 .286, .662, 3.1

Michael Bourn's performance is predicted to decline significantly, while Hunter Pence's offense is projected to increase sufficiently that he overtakes Carlos Lee. Despite the slight edge that Pence holds over Lee, it is interesting that the projections for Pence and Lee are so similar. Although the decline in Bourn's OPS seems relatively small, from a RC/G perspective, he is projected to sustain a 1 run decline. I think 2010 will be a critical year for Bourn and Pence. Will Bourn show that 2009 set a new level of performance for him or not? Will Pence develop into a legitimate slugger like James predicts? Are you satisfied with these projections of Bourn and Pence?

On the infield, James projects a solid season for Berkman, with a small, but noticeable, increase in offensive performance over 2009. Tejada is projected to post another solid offensive season, with a predicted increase over a notable 2009. Tejada's RC/G is projected to rise almost a 1/2 run. This underscores the offensive "hole" which will be created if Tejada is not re-signed. It would be safe to say that James' projections don't like the Astros' recent re-signing of Blum. Blum' offensive performance is expeccted to decline to rather pathetic levels. Blum's predicted RC/G would be the lowest among starters, except for Quintero. And, speaking of the catcher, James has no projection for Towles, but the prediction for Quintero's offense is abysmal. The James' projections would suggest that Keppinger should get more playing time over Blum. Blum would have to put on a spectacular defensive performance to justify more playing time than Keppinger. Both Keppinger and Matsui are projected to show increased offensive performances next year. Surprisingly, James has an offensive prediction for Chris Johnson, and even more surprisingly, James is somewhat more optimistic about Johnson than most of us on this board (including me). Obviously, James' system believes that Johnson's minor league numbers indicate decent enough power to offset, at least in part, a paltry OBP. I have my doubts on that.

Since we've talked about possible free agent signings at 3d base, I'll conclude with similar (OBP, OPS, RC/G) projections for some of those names.

R. Branyan .336, .826, 5.53

A. Kennedy .332, .705, 4.23

F. Lopez .352, .755, 4.81

J. Crede, .302, .735, 4.33

Thoughts?

Astros add two minor leaguers to 40 man roster

clack — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:44:15 -0000

Astros add two minor leaguers to 40 man roster

Vladimir Sutil, the Hooks' starting shorstop last year, and Fernando Abad, a pitcher at Lancaster and Corpus Christi, were added to the 40 man roster. Sutil, 25, and Abad, 23, would have become minor league free agents if they were not added to the roster prior to Nov. 9. This fills up the 40 man roster for now. But additional spots will open up on the 40 man roster when ML players declare for free agency.

Astros Complete Coaching Hires with Quirk

clack — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:09:19 -0000

Astros Complete Coaching Hires with Quirk

The Astros completed their coaching staff with the hiring of Jamie Quirk as bullpen coach. Quirk has a lot of coaching experience for the bullpen coach position. He was the Rockies' bench coach from 2002-2008. He is a former big league catcher for eight organizations.

Let's Hope Bill James Projections for Astros Pitching is Wrong

clack — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 22:58:45 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Former Houston Astros' pitcher Shawn Chacon

Browse more photos »

HLP or DQ may be planning a more comprehensive preview of the Bill James Astros' player projections for next year. But I will make a quick hit here on some Astros' pitcher projections. And let me preface this with my own personal reservation: I am skeptical of projection systems' forecasts for young players who have limited track records. This is a common sense observation based on the fact that all projection systems use some form of extrapolation from known major league stats and, for younger players, minor league stats. The more limited data on young players makes the projections less reliable for them. And the Astros are likely to rely on some young pitchers next year.

First, the following Astros' rotation looks like a disaster, if the James' projections are right:

Oswalt 205 IP 3.60 ERA

Wandy Rodriguez 212 IP 4.12 ERA

Bud Norris 107 IP 5.05 ERA

Paulino 130 IP 5.19 ERA

Moehler 163 IP 5.08 ERA

Oswalt's projection is a reasonably decent result. Wandy's ERA would increase by more than a full run per game over 09; apparently some of Wandy's past inconsistency still factors into the projection. The Norris and Paulino projections are significantly worse than their x-FIP results last year. But, since both are young pitchers, a high ERA like that isn't out of question. The Moehler projection is probably about right.

As for the bullpen, two young pitchers whom most of us are hoping can be late inning stalwarts don't project out very well.

Fulchino 93 IP 4.94 ERA

Arias 33 IP 4.65 ERA

Both results wiould represent a major disappointment. Again, I think the spotty track record for both pitchers is the reason that the good performances last year have been discounted by the projection. Arias has great stuff, but he hasn't pitched a lot in the majors prior to last sason. Fulchino has a good fastball and picked up a splitter this season, which seemed to make a big difference in his results. But Fulchino has been erratic in the big leagues in the past season. And, if we want to be honest, it's always possible that he could regress toward his past record.

For closer....Hawkins or Valverde?

Valverde 67 IP, 38 Saves, 3.22 ERA

Hawkins 63 IP, 3.29 ERA

I left out Hawkins' projection of zero saves, since it is based on an assumption that he is used as set up man.

The projections are kinder to another key bullpen arm, Chris Sampson. Again, I think this comes down to a better track record for Chris. Chris Sampson....35 IP, 3.86 ERA. Well, hold on there...only 35 innings pitched. That's like projecting an injury.

It will be interesting to see if we get some better outcomes on the ZIPS and CHONE projections for these players. Any thoughts?

Finalists for Manager Interviews

clack — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:08:57 -0000

Finalists for Manager Interviews

The local Fox sporstcast in Houston says that Acta and Mills were invited back for second interviews, which included Drayton McLane. Although not confirmed by the Astros, the news item states that Garner, Clark, Acta, and Mills are the final four.

Glorifying Brad Ausmus....

clack — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:37:16 -0000

Glorifying Brad Ausmus....

This Sports' Illustrated article provides a glowing picture of Brad Ausmus' unquantifiable catching skills. I'm an Ausmus fan, but this article is almost embarrassing in the way it places him on such a high pedestal. Although the article is triggered by Ausmus' work with the Dodgers' playoff team, the numerous quotes from Astros' players makes the article worth reading. Ausmus is hitting .293 this year. When asked to explain why he is hitting so much better this season, the Ivy League educated Ausmus replies, "Small Sample Size."