SB Nation User Blog: clark

Marlon Byrd's Value

clark — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 19:59:46 -0000

There was some heated discussion around these parts last winter regarding the value of Marlon Byrd, especially when it became known that the Cubs were interested. At that point I think most of us were surprised that a 4th OF like Byrd could pique any team's interest and most agreed that his apparent sea change at the plate was more of a "wait-and-see" change.

But 2008 only seemed to confirm his transformation into a viable starting OF. Beyond the Boxscore recently posted a ranking for all CFs in 2008 and Byrd showed up 10th, behind one current Rangers CF and in front of some very eye opening names.

I think it is possible that Byrd gets taken for granted around here, although I admit he is not without his faults. His OPS was about .200 lower away from Arlington this past season and he can be a very streaky hitter, but realize that Byrd finished last season with a line of .298/.380/.462 while showing the ability to play all three OF positions. And he is cheap and controllable for a couple more years (I think).

Because of all this, I could see the Cubs rumors coming up again this winter, along with the Yankees and really any other team looking for an OF upgrade, especially an OF who has the ability to play CF. Teams that value OBP will certainly take note of the increase in walks and decrease in Ks that Byrd exhibited this year.

I agree that he is not a player this team should be actively trying to trade, but with an OF cast that already includes Hamilton, Murphy, Cruz, Boggs and possibly Borbon in the near future, Byrd is a bit of a luxury, and if he can be parlayed into something of greater value both this year and in the future, it is worth a look. So what is Byrd's market value? I'd like to throw out the name Sean Marshall as a benchmark, a solid LHP for the Cubs who I think projects as a solid middle of the rotation starter if given the chance.

Is that reasonable?

For the sake of conversation

clark — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 20:24:51 -0000

The future of Michael Young is one of the greatest enigma's facing this team. He is commonly credited with being a strong veteran presence and given credit for setting a tone that has been followed by many of the team's younger players. This past year he experienced a drop off in his offensive numbers, and while he may not be the next Paul Molitor, it would not surprise me to see him get back up to .300 and stay there for another four or five years. His defensive limitations, however, are more alarming, and it could easily be argued that improved range at SS could help our pitching staff tremendously.

Everyone around here knows all of this, and they know about his looming contract. His tradability and his market value has long been debated. But I wonder if he still could present value to another team in a different situation than the Rangers.

Namely, the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are about to see a huge sum of money come off their books with Manny, Lowe, Penny, Maddox, Blake, Furcal and others leaving via free agency. They still have a glut of young talent, and they appear to be headed to at least the second round of the playoffs this year(and with their pitching staff, quite possibly beyond). But a team losing this much talent, veteran experience and player name recognition will be looking to replace those things this winter. Especially a team with the financial resources the Dodgers enjoy. While it is possible they look to keep some of the previously mentioned players, Furcal stands to be one of the most sought after FA's this winter and may be difficult to retain. The Dodgers had a slew of injuries hurt their middle infield this year, with Furcal and Garciaparra missing a lot of time. Young's durability is taken for granted around here but probably not in LA. All of this leads me to believe that it is possible the Dodgers could place a higher value on Young than the Rangers next season and beyond. That he happens to be from southern California is not a huge factor, but is something to consider.

The Rangers would not, and could not, ask the world for Young. Guys like Kershaw, Billingsly, Ethier and Kemp should not be realistically considered. But what about a package like LHP Scott Elbert, LHP Hong Chih Kuo and SS Chin Iung Hu? Elbert no longer looks to be a future front end starter because of his injuries, but he could easily settle in as a dominant left handed reliever over time. Kuo made huge strides this year in their bullpen and but he has started in the past and could do so for the Rangers, meeting a dire need for a left handed starter, and Hu could step in and give the Rangers a plus defensive SS for a year or two while Andrus continues to develop (his offensive limitations are easier to forgive with a team like the Rangers than with a team like the Dodgers). I know that is three guys currently on the 40, and that is something to consider, but I didn't feel like mining their minor league pages for other names...

Is such a deal possible? Am I asking for too much, or too little?

Randy Johnson

clark — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 17:38:55 -0000

I have seen this on here before, but i thought i would float the idea again to see how the opinions range. RJ is going to be a FA after the season, and while he no longer qualifies as an ace, he still seems capable of consistantly delivering quality starts (at least in the weak NL West).

The Rangers have a number of young starters on the verge, but many, including Harrison and Hunter, are probably better served starting next year in AAA to continue to work on their command and offspeed offerings. At the same time, the team should probably avoid signing a pitcher to a long term contract unless it is someone like Sabathia (I am weary even of Sheets).

Bringing in a guy like Johnson on a one year deal to start every fifth day and mentor our young pitchers seems like a good idea to me, especially if we fail to land a big name pitcher. As a bonus, it seems unlikely Johnson would be a type A, so the Rangers would not have to forfeit a pick for him. I would also think he has a decent relationship with Nolan, who I think wants to compete sooner, rather than later. Johnson could help us compete next year without blocking our young pitchers long term.

Here are his stats on the year. He has pitched much better of late, after starting the year injured. Thoughts?

Poll

Should the Rangers consider signing Randy Johnson this offseason to a one year deal?

Trade deadline thoughts

clark — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 14:51:31 -0000

As the trade deadline draws closer, it seems like the most likely fit, if any, for this team could be a trade with the Marlins, who are still reportedly seeking a catcher and a LHP in their bullpen. I have attached a poll to get a feel for what people around here are expecting in return for a guy like Laird and Guardardo.

But I also wanted to ask an open ended question. It is starting to seem, at least judging from a few of the most recent trades, like this may be more of a buyer's market than a seller's market. The Rangers have a number of young players who are blocked down on the farm, guys who don't get much love in our system but who could present value for another team (look at the list of guys still on the board in our current LSB prospect ranking process, and add guys like Osuna and Kirkman who aren't even on that list yet). Should the Rangers entertain the idea of being buyers if they can land a guy like Washburn or someone of his ilk (slightly overpaid for his abilities but trending in the right direction).

Poll

Would you trade Laird and Guardardo for Tankersley and VandenHurk

Blalock Update

clark — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:54:15 -0000

The formidable mlbtraderumors.com has an update saying that the Twins favor Blalock over the other 3B on the market these days. I am not sure how compelled they are to make a move, but that got me pretty pumped, because last year they seemed to have a great system full of pitchers.

Until I read this. Sickels, a huge Twins fan, runs through an update on his initial list, and their system appears barren. Even the great Tyler Robertson, who has Rangers ties because of his dad, has been shut down for the year with shoulder soreness. Besides Ben Revere, that leaves a system that only looks good compared to the Astros.

Unless they are willing to trade someone already on their major league team, I just don’t see much that would make me want to give up a year and a half of Blalock, whose value could really rise over the next three months if he stays healthy.

Astros get Wolf (Padilla's market value altered?)

clark — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:14:15 -0000

Per this guy, the Astros got Randy Wolf today for a AAA pitcher named Chad Reineke.

Reineke had pitched better of late and has a K rate up near 1/IP, but he is also 26 years old and has never been considered a serious prospect. He is the sort of flyball/strikeout pitcher who could work out in Petco and get away with pitches that would hurt a lot more in other parks.

So the question is, does this hurt Padilla's value because of the insignificant return, or does it help because there is one less arm on the market. The park effect of Wolf's former home park and Padilla's current home park must be considered, but Padilla's contract and headcase reputation should be considered as well.

Thoughts?

bullpen help

clark — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:46:51 -0000

I was lurking over at DRaysBay and saw that they, like a number of other SB Nation communities, are intrigued by Nelson Cruz. They are looking all over for a right handed bat for the OF, and while it is entirely possible they go out and acquire a legit big league bat, they could be a potential landing spot for Cruz.

Now I know the opinion of a collection of sports fans is not indicative of that of the GM, but I threw out the idea of trading Nelson Cruz for right handed reliever Juan Salas and they seemed okay with it. Salas is already 29 and did not start pitching until 4 or 5 years ago, when it was clear he would never make it as a 3B. He has a tremendous fastball that BA ranked as the best in the system two years ago, and he has enjoyed some success at the big league level. He is currently pitching down in Durham and is not on their 40 because he was placed on their restricted list during spring training because of visa problems. He was also suspended last season for 50 games, so he’s got a little baggage (but then, that’s why we could possibly get him for Cruz). As recently as last season he was pitching in key late inning situations for the Rays.

Adding him and Calero to the mix could turn a weakness into...something slightly less than a weakness for the second half.

Good for laughs - Teixeira Rumor Mill

clark — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 21:23:42 -0000

If you haven't already, venture over here to read some wonderfully naive Braves fans throw out their trade hopes and dreams for Teixeira. The best part is that the names are almost identical to the names we saw thrown around last year. To the Red Sox for Youkilis, to the Dodgers for Loney AND Kemp.

The best proposed trade had the Braves sending Teixeira, Ohman, and Lillibridge (a package that varies from the one we sent last year by one less year of Teixeira and one more C level prospect in Lillibridge) for Youkilis AND Buchholz.

Nice.

I have a feeling we have already seen the major fireworks for this year's trade deadline.

Trade Deadline Update

clark — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:27:57 -0000

The biggest name on the market has been dealt, tentatively setting the market going forward. But the number of teams still “in the mix” is high enough that the buyer and seller columns are hardly set in stone, and the Rangers, now at three games above .500 despite their lack of quality pitching and a recent string of injuries, are squarely in the middle of that gray area. It is July 7th, and frankly, I have no idea what this team will do.

I am fairly certain they will try to find a trade partner for Frank Catalanotto, but I doubt they are looking to give him away. We have heard they are willing to deal Padilla, but their pitching depth is thin right now, and with Padilla’s two recent lackluster efforts and recent injury news, it is hard to imagine his trade value being greater than his value to the Rangers at this point. However, a couple of strong starts, along with positive news about guys like Hurley, Mathis, Murray, and McCarthy in the coming weeks, could change that.

Milton Bradley is another wild card. His numbers are still among the league leaders, but he has been missing more and more games of late, and his delicate handling by the Rangers of late is reminiscent of Gagne at this point last year. If a team believes in his health going forward, he should have some serious value. The market for an impact right handed bat is pretty thin, with Bay and Nady as the only real competition.

The catching situation has been skewed by injuries. I have a feeling a resolution will not come until the offseason, due to Salty’s weak performance to date and Laird’s injury.

Any other thoughts, rumors, or musings? I’d love to hear them.

OT: 2005 NBA Draft

clark — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:13:20 -0000

Sorry folks. I know this is a baseball forum, but there are many on here that care about the NBA and enjoy opining about the (sad) state of the Mavs, and I found this tidbit to be interesting.

In 2005, the Mavericks did not make a single pick in the June draft, having traded both their first and second round picks. But before last season, the Mavericks took a flier on Brandon Bass, an early second round pick who failed to impress in his first two seasons with the New Orleans Hornets. It appears to Mavericks have taken a shining to that formula, because they now have three more players who failed to live up to expectations from that draft. After trading for (and hopefully resigning) former Texas A&M great Antoine Wright, they have now brought in former 12th overall pick Yaroslav Korolev, an athletic small forward from Russia, to play on their summer league team, and have signed to a one year deal uber-athletic shooting guard Gerald Green, one of the last high school draft entrants, who was originally thought to be a top five pick before falling to the Celtics at 18.

The Mavericks now employ (to various degrees) four of the top 33 picks in that draft. Here’s hoping one of Green, Wright, and Korolev can come in a make a similar impact this year to the one that Bass made last year, because this team will surely need it.