SB Nation User Blog: clark

Pertinent Fangraphs Articles

clark — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:32:13 -0000

These may not be fanpost worthy, but I figured that they might help distract from the Hicks imbroglio and help start or continue a few conversations we are having elsewhere regarding our offseason targets. Please forgive me if these have already been posted in old fanshots.

The first article is a comparison of the values and perceived values of Jason Bay and Mike Cameron. The second is a take on Dan Uggla's trade value, which may be lower than I initially realized. The last is a look at Adrian Beltre's potential away from Safeco, which habitually drives down RH power numbers. Given our need for a RH bat and that our only real defensive liability is at 3B, I figured I'd post it, even though the chances of us actually going after Beltre and shifting Young elsewhere are slim.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ugglas-value

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adrian-beltres-bat-away-from-safeco

For whatever reason, hyperlinks aren't working for me today, so I'll have to just post them like this...

Rangers AFL Review

clark — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 01:52:41 -0000

The Surprise Rafters' season ended today, and with it so did the stateside winter play of many of our beloved prospects. As a parting gift, many were active on its last day and most ended with a flourish. Lemon began his 2009 regular season on an amazing run, and appropriately bookended it with a strong stretch of games. He finished his season on a 17-40 run that included four HRs, which is neat until you realize he only hit one all year with Frisco, and then it becomes astonishing even in a hitter friendly environment like AZ. Mitch Moreland, on the other hand, was pretty consistent throughout the regular season, and continued that in the AFL, winning over many scouts and pundits along the way. Taylor Teagarden, part of a cache of young catchers that has failed to click at the big league level, had two solid games to end the season to save his bat from utter embarrassment. Gutcheck (a name I have given Gutierrez given his issues) gave up three runs today in three innings but struck out six and walked zero, so I won't write him off just yet. Scheppers rebounded from his worst professional start and threw a scoreless inning, and Harrison struck out three during three scoreless innings, so he finished with six scoreless and only two baserunners in his final two outings. I think he ends up being a very valuable member of our bullpen next year.

Other things to note: The Nationals are probably okay with their draft haul right now, finishing with the league leader in saves and ERA (Storen) and wins (Strasburg). Those stats are useless, but on the whole both pitchers apparently pitched quite well. Some kid named Robbie Weinhardt, an Okie State alum in the Tigers' system, put himself on my prospect map by striking out 29 hitters in just 18 innings, and Andrew Cashner dominated every start in which he didn't face Surprise...unfortunately three of his six starts came against the Rafters so he posted pretty pedestrian numbers overall.

If you want to spend some time looking through statistics and perhaps share greater insights than I am capable of, then be my guest...

Looking Ahead to the Offseason...

clark — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 15:58:36 -0000

Despite our still being in it, I have been conditioned over my years as a Rangers fan to start thinking about the upcoming offseason by this time of year (and honestly, usually well before this time). One of the weirdest things about this season, beyond truly caring about the outcomes of games in August, has been how hard it has been to identify specific areas to upgrade on this team, both for this year and going forward. This is mostly because the rotation has been the default setting for that category for so long.

At the trade deadline this year, outside of an obvious candidate like Roy Halladay, any other target would have felt like a small and insignificant upgrade at any one position, despite the obvious problems this team has had offensively, and that sort of extends into this offseason. For example, despite the likely loss of Andruw Jones and Marlon Byrd, does this team really need to go after an OF with Cruz, Hamilton, Murphy, Borbon and Boggs hanging around? Does the team want to invest in a DH long term with Davis, Smoak, Max Ram and Moreland all still hanging around? An ace would be nice, but with rotation depth next year potentially including Millwood, Feldman, Hunter, Holland, Feliz, Harrison, McCarthy, and Hurley, you’d really need to target quality over quantity. But if they do decide to shop from the top shelf this offseason, they picked a poor time to start drafting in the back half of the first round.

I have included a toolbag of links from the luminiferous aether to hopefully help stimulate some conversation on what our 40 should look like and which FA or trade targets we should pursue.

We have some major contracts coming off the books (Padilla at 12m, Blalock at 6m, Benoit at 3.5m, Byrd at 3m, and Guardardo at 1m would equal 25.5, less the 1m that adds onto Millwood’s salary next year and the arb cases). Is this enough to make a run at a guy like Lackey? Could we also afford to bring in a guy like Abreu on a one year deal? I think they are both currently projected as type B free agents, although both are on the fringe between B and A. The obvious added bonus in signing either player is the damage it does to the Angels, while also addressing our greatest needs (legit TORP and OBP minded DH).

Links:

Scott Lucas' Rule 5 eligibles...

Scott Lucas' Rangers Organizational Depth Chart...

BBTiA's June 40 Man Roster Opinions...

Cot's Rangers Contracts Page...

MLBTR's List of 2010 Free Agents

2009 Trade Deadline Dynamics

clark — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 20:41:09 -0000

Jayson Stark just posted a story about trade deadline myths. A lot of it we already know (wherein "we" is assumed to include people who read Jamey, the Jasons, and most any other local educated baseball commenter) but one line particularly stood out, and was duly noted on mlbtr, stating that Matt Holliday, Jarrod Washburn and Jack Wilson are all "likely to zip through waivers" next month.

What? Really? Matt Holliday hasn't shown a ton of power this year, but i would think a team wouldn't mind adding his plus defense and solid plate discipline for the simple cost of his salary. In fact, I would venture to guess that even the Rangers may place a claim, if he fell to them, if for no other reason than to foil the hated A's. The same almost certainly applies to Washburn (why give up prospects for Lee if Washburn could be had for a waiver claim?).

I know Stark isn't exactly Professor Baseball, but he is employed by ESPN and he is probably fairly plugged in. So this comment kind of blows my mind. It also makes me want to take back my arguments with AJM about Millwood's trade value, because if these guys are probably going to "zip" through waivers, and if decent names like LaRoche and Betancourt are being traded for lower tier prospects, then this is definitely an extreme buyer's market. I'm just glad the Rangers' 2007 didn't try to happen in 2009...

Trade Talk

clark — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:44:06 -0000

I have nothing substantial here, but as July gets closer, my mind tends to wander this way. I keep reading over and over that this is such a seller’s market, which amazes me because, with the financial situation as it is, I figured teams would be more willing to move guys. I am starting to wonder if the Rangers can pull off a dual “buyer/seller” mode over the next month and move some guys who may not be able to help after this year while also keeping their team strong for a playoff run. Of course, it would help if every position player at the big league level wasn’t mired in suck right now.

Still, I love proposing deals, so I’d figure I’d throw some shit at the wall and see what sticks.

#1 Chris Davis, Thomas Diamond and Greg Golson for Ian Snell, Adam LaRoche and Sean Burnett.

Why it makes sense for the Rangers: Ian Snell is controllable through 2012 and when he’s right, he’s a very good young pitcher. Let him stay down in OKC through the all star break and hope that he comes back strong and rejuvenated by playing for a contender in the second half. He hasn’t faced the AL West much, which should be an advantage this year. Adam LaRoche could come in and solve our 1B problem for the rest of the year, and he’s always been a very strong second half guy (and as a FA at year’s end, we would stand to get some compensation for him). Sean Burnett gives us a groundball inducing lefty (a true loogy) to bolster our reliever corps.

Why it makes sense for the Pirates: Chris Davis is obviously a wildly talented hitter with an impeccable minor league track record. He is also very solid defensively. Still, the Rangers need help at 1B now, and not necessarily in the future (with Smoak coming through the ranks), so letting Davis play through his slump makes a lot more sense for a non-contender like the Pirates. Pittsburgh is reportedly looking for toolsy OF to put around McCutchen, and Golson makes sense in that department (he is no higher than sixth or seventh on our OF depth chart). I still think, somewhere in there, Thomas Diamond has what it takes, but obviously DVD needed to be elsewhere in order to thrive, so its time we set this bird free.

Which team balks at this deal? There is obvious risk on both sides, and it would certainly sting to see Davis leave, but it makes sense in both the short and long term for the Rangers.

#2 Jose Vallejo for Sergio Romo

Why it makes sense for the Rangers: When healthy, Sergio Romo has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two years, despite his smallish stature. I don’t love this move only because Vallejo is the obvious choice to fill in long term if Kinsler went down with an injury, and he makes sense as a cheap utility guy for us in the future. But Sergio could team with Wilson, Frankie and O'Day to give us a true shut-down back end of our bullpen, and it would be nice to have a Romo I can count on when it matters.

Why it makes sense for the Giants: The Giants have solid pitching depth, especially in their bullpen, and a dearth of position player prospects in their upper levels. Vallejo is just about major league ready and could step in and play 2B for the Giants tomorrow, while filling that hole for years to come. He is currently blocked in TX by two talented young players who are controllable for many years, but he has the tools to be a legit ML starter somewhere.

These are the first two that popped into my head. They may be wildly biased on my part. I just figured I’d get a little conversation going. Feel free to rip mine and/or add your own.

New Draft Thread

clark — Wed, 20 May 2009 15:08:04 -0000

I think we're about to lose the previous draft post and subsequent conversations from the main page, so let's get this party started...again. Here are all the links that were included in the last thread:

Andy's most recent first round projection over at minorleagueball.com...click around and check out Andy's previous projections.

The Sporting News has some interesting articles up about Crow, Volz, and the college closer trend on their mlb draft page.

Some early prep profiles from Saberscouting...RIP, we hardly knew you...

Check out milb's draft profiles to familiarize yourself with some of the top names, and then check BA's updated draft tracker to see how these guys have progressed throughout the year. Here is their general draft page, with some great stuff for everyone and lots more behind the pay wall.

Here is the link to Brewerfan.net's top 30 as another point of reference (although their top 30 is already looking a little outdated in this year's very fluid first round).

Another useful resource during draft season is PG Crosschecker, although you either have to pony up for a subscription or root around for scraps of free information.

A new (and somewhat questionable) source of data this year is Real Baseball Intelligence. Their top prospects list includes some eyebrow raising locations for more than a few familiar names.

And here's an early first round mock from the Sporting News as well as one from mymlbdraft.com.

Since this is my thread, I'll go ahead and link the player bio of my personal cheeseball, current UNC LHP and future Ranger great Brian Moran.

If you have more helpful links, throw 'em up here.

Well all right! Let's commence the jigglin'!

Rangers Draft Talk

clark — Thu, 14 May 2009 05:09:36 -0000

We've tiptoed around it long enough and flirted with it in various threads, but to this point there is not a catch all spot to discuss the upcoming draft. Andy Seiler has done a great job covering the draft over at minorleagueball, but its time we had our own spot to bounce ideas over here at LSB.

For starters, check out milb's draft profiles to familiarize yourself with some of the top names, and then check BA's updated draft tracker to see how these guys have progressed throughout the year.

Then head over to the aforementioned minorleagueball and check out Andy's most recent first, supplemental and second round mocks, as well as his Ranger's draft preview and his MOD thread. You'll find each link in the recommended fanposts because apparently every Rangers thread over there is rectacular.

I'll kick off the conversation tonight by saying I have a new draft crush (or personal cheeseball, as BA would say) should the Rangers miss out on the many sexy arms projected to go at the top of the first round, and his name is Bobby Borchering. He's a prep third baseman who is an advanced hitter from both sides of the plate. While the Rangers would love to see him stick at third (though scouts seem mixed on that) I think he has the bat and the arm to make him a strong option as a left fielder. He may not be the top prep position prospect, but he seems to have the top prep bat, and he has 13 HRs in 107 appearances so far on the year.

UPDATE:

Here is the link to Brewerfan.net's top 30 as another point of reference (although their top 30 is already looking a little outdated in this year's very fluid first round).

Another useful resource during draft season is PG Crosschecker, although you either have to pony up for a subscription or root around for scraps of free information.

And finally, a new (and somewhat questionable) source of data this year is Real Baseball Intelligence. Their top prospects list includes some eyebrow raising locations for more than a few familiar names.

A Question/Ranking Opportunity

clark — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 14:18:09 -0000

Okay, this may come off as piling on after this four game debacle we all just witnessed, but this actually stems from a conversation I had with some friends here in Houston at an Astros game when the Rangers sat at 2-0 on the year. As you may imagine and/or have witnessed yourself, a person can take a fair amount of shit for being a transplanted Rangers fan, but lately I have been quick to come back with the retort that our farm system ranks number one in baseball and that our organization is clearly trending upwards. Anyway, our conversation quickly turned to trying to identify the most futile, hapless franchise in baseball history over the course of each respective team’s lifespan. Ultimately, it was decided that it depends on if you want to allow a franchise to count prior cities and identities (as with the Rangers and the Senators), but for the sake of this conversation, we decided not to include past iterations because a fan base regenerates with each move (Nationals fans don’t care about the Expos’ struggles).

Without the Senators (and possibly even with their efforts), I was unable to give any good reason why the Rangers would not be the worst franchise in baseball. This may have been obvious to some, but it caught me off guard. It didn’t seem this clear 4 or 5 years ago, but with the relatively recent success of the Astros, Rockies and Rays, I think it has become pretty clear. In the AL, the Mariners were the closest with three division titles and no WS appearances, but that 107 win season gave them a slight nod. A team like the Expos would have been our best chance to avoid the basement, but if you look only at the work of the Nationals, then the sample size is too small. Even long suffering teams (at least in my 25 year life to date) like the Pirates and Orioles had enough success earlier to slide comfortably above the Rangers. It was a sad realization, but ultimately, a small source of pride. I think we may be the best fans in baseball, because we have the greatest labor of love.

Did I forget anything that may change this dubious status?

Opening Day #2

clark — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 12:45:08 -0000

Guys! It's opening day for our four full season minor league affiliates. As great as the first two Rangers games have been, baseball season doesn't really start for me (and many of you, I'm sure) until I get to open three game day trackers and scan and rescan 5 box scores at the end of the night. I don't know when our parent team will suffer its first loss this year, but I am sure glad they were able to hold out long enough that the sting can now be mitigated by the juggernaut that is our farm system.

So be sure to check Shroom's site for the probable starters and read over all the great stuff in your inbox from Jamey and Scott, and be sure to count your blessings that you were born a Rangers fan and have a bazillion resources at your disposal to help you follow all our affiliates.

A case for Jimmy Gobble

clark — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 04:04:13 -0000

Jimmy Gobble's numbers last year were ugly. 8.81 ERA, 27:23 K:BB ratio, 1.96 WHIP. On the surface, he seems like the sort of pitcher this team should stay away from. But looking a little deeper, he could be exactly who this team needs.

I have recently opined at length about our bullpen, and it was admittedly mostly fretting. Frankie is a lock in the 9th inning role, and Wilson will hopefully return to be the 8th inning guy. If his blister problems linger, it's looking like two of Turnbow, Eyre, or Madrigal would be asked to step into the 7th and 8th inning roles. The long reliever will be either Nippert or Rupe. What the bullpen currently lacks is a loogy.

As horrible as Gobble was last year, he was pretty dominant against lefties. His BAA vs lefties was .200, vs righties it was .382. His OPS against vs lefties was .580, vs righties it was 1.193. His K:BB was 18:4 vs lefties, 9:19 vs righties. He is the textbook definition of a loogy, and he can be had for next to nothing. With the current instability among our crop of bullpen lefties, he seems like exactly the sort of player to take a chance on.