First off a sincere thank you to those men and women who do and have served our country in the armed forces. I know some of you may even read the downbeat this morning. Even with the memorial day weekend, your service is underappreciated. Thank you for fighting for us, so that we can do things that are often less important...like watch and discuss professional basketball. Thank you.

A lot has been discussed thus far about the rumors of a Golden State-Utah Jazz trade dealing with the 2012 pick protections.

First off, I don't think it's going to happen. When has a consummated Utah Jazz trade ever been known about and didn't come to fruition in the next few hours? The Jazz don't deal kindly with rumors of trades. Remember when Kevin O'Connor publicly ridiculed the Warriors' front office for publicly discussing talks the two teams had been having. Kevin O' Connor does not like his hand to be played by other teams. The rumors they are talking again have surfaced and someone had to open their mouth. O'Connor may put an end to talks with the Warriors, not only on this deal, but for awhile.

On top of that, I hate the idea of the trade if it doesn't involve players, as was rumored. There really isn't anything that the Warriors could offer that should make it worth it to the Jazz. The Jazz have a 28% chance of landing the 8th pick without doing anything. That is a decent chance. Let's say the Jazz trade that chance to make the Warriors pick unprotected next year. So the Warriors have the pick and they have Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, David Lee, Andrew Bogut, etc. That is a decent team. Is that team going to be a bottom dwelling team? If Bogut and Curry are healthy for 50 games, even, that team is winning 25-30 games right there. There is a really really great chance that the Jazz would be giving up that 28% for something that wouldn't have been any different the next year.

What if the Jazz trade that 28% for the 30th and 35th pick from the Warriors? Theoretically that seems fine. You are getting the 30th and 35th pick by trading something you may never have had anyway. The problem is that the average value of an 8th pick, while not guaranteed to be a starter is to be a rotation player. You can expect to get a player at 8 that will stay in the NBA past 4 years, even if they aren't great. The average player in the 30-35 range is out of the league in 4 years. You can expect to draft a player that won't make it past their rookie contract at 30-35. So again, if the Jazz don't land rotation players with those picks, then the value is nothing, essentially. Again they would have traded a 28% chance at the 8th pick for nothing.

Or the Jazz could trade the rights for cash considerations up to $3 million...

It's not that I am against the Utah Jazz saving money and protecting the bottom line of their company. In fact I have advocated for it. I think the Jazz should take advantage of these rookie contracts they have and keep team salaries as low as possible without being penalized. Then the Jazz should think about exceeding the salary cap, when they can legitimately compete for a top 3 seed in the playoffs. The Jazz should never have to pay a player $13 or $15 million to produce a number of wins a guy could do at $5 or $6 million with a little extra homework and forethought.

But I am against the idea of selling the rights to the 8th pick for $3 million when there are much better ways to save $3 million. I feel like I am Dave the presidential look alike, and I have to renegotiate the Federal Budget in order to cut costs elsewhere so that the children's orphanage (in this case the 28% for the 8th pick) can continue.

First off, the Jazz reportedly paid Josh Howard $2.1 million to play basketball for them this season. I had always assumed that the Jazz were paying Howard the veteran minimum ($1.2 million), but every website I have seen has him listed as $2.1 million. According to advanced statistics per basketball-reference.com, Josh Howard played 43 games for the Jazz and helped the team win 0.5 games. The Jazz paid DeMarre Carroll about $500,000 to play 20 games and basketball-reference has him tabbed for 0.4 wins. So don't resign Howard and replace him with a minimum player, even a d-league player for $500,000. You're welcome Jazz, I just saved you $1.6 million by using my brain for a couple minutes.

Then there is Raja Bell. The Jazz are on tap to pay Raja Bell $3.2 million this year to pout and wine and cause problems in the locker room. The Jazz have stated that they are opposed to buying him out. That's too bad, because it would be a great business decision. Using the Amnesty Clause on Raja Bell would be silly because the Jazz would still have to pay Bell the full $3.2 million minus whatever amount a new team offered Bell, which might be nothing. But with a buyout, you agree to pay Raja, say...$2-2.5 million to leave the team and try to find another team. If he really thinks another team will pick him up, he can make up his contract money with a new deal. If he's really that unhappy, and he seems to be, he'll agree to cut $500,000-$1,000,000 off his contract to walk away. He'll do it, especially if you tell him that things will be the same if he stays on the team. I'll do the talking, Kevin O'Connor. I'll save the team like $800,000 at least.

I don't want to be the one that has to tell a Jazz fan, there is no chance the Jazz get the 8th pick this draft, just so Tyrone Corbin can make himself feel better by playing an overpaid Josh Howard who makes the team only half a game better.

Via iamgm.com:

Did you notice a common theme? The Rocket players are furious with Kevin McHale's lack of effective communication. Sounds familiar to me. But don't worry. I have personally paid for Tyrone Corbin and Kevin McHale to attend John Hersey's workshop of effective communication (I haven't really).

I was pretty harsh last downbeat about some of Kevin O'Connor's transactions as general manager. So let's discuss his best moves ever. I think it's a tie between the Mehmet Okur trade and the drafting of Deron WIlliams. What say you?

I have been writing a few pieces on the Utah Jazz and their relationship with the three point line. It was proposed in the comments section of one of the pieces to show how the Utah Jazz's philosophies were affected when they had great three point shooters. In 2009-2010, Kyle Korver shot a blistering 54% from beyond the arc. The year before that, Mehmet Okur shot 45% from three. They both shot better from different areas on the court depending on the year. I can't prove it, but I don't remember the Jazz running specific plays for either of them to get three pointers. Deron made it happen for both of them. But what I can prove is that they both shot less 3 pointers while with the Jazz, especially Korver:

As you can see, the two full seasons at Utah, Korver shot the fewest and 3rd fewest three point shots per 36 minutes. However you feel about Kyle Korver, I think we can all agree that he was underutilized while in Utah. Even though Korver got gunshy at the end, possibly to preserve his shooting record, he shot a career low attempts while shooting 56% from three.

Be sure to check out slcdunk supporter Peter J Novak in his article on potential trades with all 29 other NBA teams. This particular post is part one and mentions possible trades with the 14 lottery teams. The thing I like about this piece is that each of the trades, you have to consider before you say yes or no to them. That means they are realistic. Of course every Jazz fan would trade "player x for a more superior player y and a draft pick" but the other team wouldn't do that or else Kevin O' Connor would have done it by now. Most trades make you say, "hmm, I don't know if I love it, but it might work. I really will miss the pieces we gave up." Other than the Kyle Korver trade, and to some extent, the Jeff Hornacek trade, every Jazz trade has been sort of a "well I hope that works out for us" trade.

Just think of all the cool nicknames. A backcourt named Ben Gordon Hayward?

In Novak's piece, I am especially fond of the proposed Houston trade, The Nets trade, and Washington trade. I would make any of those trades. I'd probably make the one with Milwaukee as well. Here is another one to add to the list. Al Jefferson for Ben Gordon and the 9th pick in this draft. It is similar to the Jefferson for Omeka Okafor deal and the 11th pick, but this trade would balance the team a bit more. We would be doing the cash strapped Pistons a huge favor by taking Gordon and his 2 years, $25 million, but he could make a nice scoring punch off the bench. Gordon can still hit an open 3 pointer. Anyways, we will hear a lot more about proposed trades over the next several weeks, I am sure.

Other than trade offers and proposals, I have heard and read about a lot of possible free agent signings the Jazz could do with their non existant, monopoly money they are allowed to use on free agents. I think the most "meh" proposal I have heard is from Deseret News' Brad Rock.

Rock suggests that the Jazz bring back Mo Williams. I think that is a great idea, other than the fact that Williams isn't an upgrade to any position and he basically fills almost no needs that the Jazz have. He's a pretty good three point shooter, I will give him that. Maybe I'm crazy, but I have no interest in Mo Williams coming back to the Jazz. Especially not for the money he will be looking for if he opts out of $8.5 million next year. Here is Rock's argument:

"As it is, he shoots better, plays the point better, passes better, gets to the free throw line better and competes better than Fredette. Last week he came off the bench to score 20 points in 33 minutes."

Look, if your best argument for bringing someone to the Jazz is that they are better than Jimmer Fredette, well...

I honestly think Rock wrote this piece on Mo Williams so that he could just use this line in his article:

"Who knew the 47th pick of the 2003 draft would be all that and mo'?"

Well done, Mr Rock.

Brad Rock also mentions that of all of Kevin O' Connor's mistakes, KOC puts letting Mo Williams go as one of the biggest. Really? Again, Mo Williams is a good player, who even made the All-Star game once, but I wouldn't consider letting him go to be a big snafu by O'Connor. What is Kevin O'Connor's dumbest move? I know that many of you will say the max contract for Andrei Kirilenko, but I think bringing in Carlos Boozer after Kirilenko had such a promising season was sillier than signing AK to the big deal.

You have heard me say it time and time again, but I think the Al Jefferson acquisition was one of O'Connor's worst moves. He panicked and brought in a low efficiency offensive player with poor defensive habits, who absolutely didn't fit the Jazz's offensive system. The worst part, O'Connor couldn't have known, but the Jazz could have had a superior Tyson Chandler at a much cheaper price just a few weeks later. Instead, Jefferson's contract immediately became untradeable. I'm mostly just sad that we can't realistically pursue Ersan Ilyasova, Nicolas Batum, or Eric Gordon this offseason. On one hand, I understood the trade because the Jazz needed to stay competitive to placate Deron, but Kevin O' Connor has admitted that trading Deron was a consideration before the season, so any move justified to stay competitive for Deron is an excuse. But enough about my hurt feelings. I want to hear from you.

What move/ non move should Kevin O'Connor consider his biggest mistake?

The other thing the whole regret of Mo Williams makes me think is that Kevin O'Connor (and by extension, the Jazz front office) love mediocre players. This is Mo Williams we are talking about, not passing on Michael Jordan to draft Sam Bowie, or passing on Tony Parker to draft Raul Lopez. It's not like he passed up on Josh Smith, Kevin Martin, and Anderson Varajao to draft Kris Humphries.

The problem is that being content with good players, or even very good players, makes you miss an opportunity to have great players. Imagine if the Jazz did hang onto Mo Williams. I don't think their 2004-05 record would've been much better, so they would have still had the #8 pick. Would the Jazz have traded up to take Deron WIlliams, if they had Mo Williams manning the point? It can be debated, but I don't think so. They would have filled the weakest position, the one they filled the next year with Brewer. That would have left the Jazz taking the best wing available, like, Martell Webster, or Gerald Green, or Danny Granger. You know this is true. Would you trade having Mo Williams and Danny Granger for not having the 6, sometimes magical years of Deron? When you hold onto good players and overvalue them, it can sometimes keep you from finding great players. Right now the Jazz have one, maybe two players that can be great. But what will really tell you if the Jazz want to be a great team, or are content with being good to very good, is what they do with their good players.

Here is a list of the 10 best three point shooters over the last three seasons. Whether or not the Jazz could land them is another story.

STEPHEN CURRY

2011-2012: 55-121 (46%)

Last 3 years: 372-843 (44%)

Curry is hands down the best 3 point shooter in the NBA right now. He is tied with Steve Novak in 3 point shooting percentage over the last 3 seasons, but Curry has shot 160 more three pointers than Novak over that time period. On top of that Curry can shoot the 3 from anywhere or in any position. He makes spot up threes, threes off the dribble, or threes in transition. Over the last two seasons, Curry is 60-108 (56%) from corner threes.

If I am the Jazz, I am offering the Warriors anything short of Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward for Curry. Curry fits every need the Jazz have right now, and in my opinion, if you have a core of a shooting point guard, a versatile wing player, and a dominant big man, you can compete for a championship with average role players around them. But it isn't going to happen, so don't worry if you don't like Curry as much as I do, or if you got confused and thought his ankle problems were anything more than the Warriors trying to lose games this year.

Continue reading this post »

You know the play well. It may have been the pinnacle of the Jazz's postseason this year. Everything was down hill from there. Three point 4 seconds left in the first half with the Jazz holding a 50-49 lead. And the Spurs hit a corner three from Matt Bonner as the halftime buzzer sounded. All the Spurs were pretty pumped. They made the shot, took the lead and broke the Jazz players' collective spirits. But also they got just the shot they wanted. It was an epic moment.

The funny thing is that Matt Bonner didn't move a muscle from the time the ball was inbounded 80 feet away to the time he released the shot. He picked his spot, stood there and waited for the pass.

It was one of 59 three point shots Matt Bonner took from the corner this season and he made 29 of them. That is 49%. That is a higher percentage than Kevin Durant shot in the paint this year. That is the same free throw shooting % for Andris Biedrins' career.

But it sums up perfectly what the Jazz need to embrace in their offense: the corner three point shot.

Continue reading this post »

The question that we will all wonder this offseason and the question asked by Radiohead in the song "The Bends" is "Where do we go from here?" As we all know, Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter and Alec Burks are the only Jazz players under contract past this season and so the next 3 or 4 offseasons are going to have their fair share of player movement. Where do the Jazz go from here? They could essentially bring back the same team from last year and make another push for the playoffs with a hope of internal growth. Or they could add a few free agents that address current team needs, or the team could trade a piece like Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap or Devin Harris for a little better roster balance. One thing we know is that this team is not going to "rebuild."

I hate to rain on everybody's hypothetical dream parade, but with the talk about what free agents to pursue and what have you, I think we need to clear something up right off the bat: the Jazz don't have very much cap space to pursue free agents.

This salary breakdown from hoopshype.com is very helpful in looking at our immediate cap space. Without boring you with too many of the details, the Jazz would have about $6-8 million in cap space hypothetically, depending on what they decide to do with DeMarre Carroll, Jeremy Evans and Jamaal Tinsley. The Jazz also have a $10.8 million trade exception, in which they can use to acquire a player or players with salaries that add up to less than $10.8 million this year. If you want to know more about that Trade Exception, I wrote about it right after the Okur trade. The only problem is that I didn't include the fact that the Jazz could use the exception to acquire a free agent through a sign and trade scenario. More on that in a bit. But the problem is that the Jazz don't have 6-8 million in cap space AND a trade exception. Without going into even further details, the Jazz would have to give up their traded player exception if they wanted to use their cap space. So really they have either the TPE or cap space, which is important. The Jazz do have a Mid-Level Exception that is basically $5 million a year that they could use with their TPE. Confused yet?

Many Jazz fans are getting sort of geeked up about the prospect of bringing Andrei Kirilenko back to Utah. It's a super exciting prospect for many of us, but economically it would be difficult and that is why I wanted to explain things from point #2.

The Jazz cannot acquire Andrei Kirilenko through a sign and trade into their traded player exception. He would have to resign with his previous NBA team in order to do that and he doesn't have a current NBA team. So the Jazz would either have to dump salary in order to clear more cap room or else convince Kirilenko to take the Mid-Level Exception, which would pay him roughly 3 years, $16 million or 4 years $21 million. If Andrei were willing to take that sort of money, then great. But is it likely? The Jazz desperately need a small forward and in a lot of ways that aren't three point shooting, he would be a great fit here. There is no arguing that, even if you don't like the guy. But I just don't see Andrei (or his wife and agent) taking only the MLE when he will presumably have bigger offers elsewhere.

So count me in the camp that thinks it would be fun to have AK-47 back in Salt Lake City, but who doesn't see it happening for non-basketball reasons. @LostTacoVendor just sighed a huge sigh of relief.

A guy that would be easier to acquire than Andrei Kirilenko, economically, would be unrestricted free agent Steve Nash. Jazz fans got all hot and bothered about 3 nights ago when Chris Broussard of ESPN's NBA fastbreak mentioned that the Utah Jazz were a team that interested Nash, along with the Heat and Orlando, etc. Obviously you have to take Broussard's rumors with a large grain of salt, but there is no doubt that Utah makes some sense for Nash.

David J Smith a writer for the Utah Jazz 360 website and also for Deseret News, wrote a little piece about Nash to the Jazz that is worth a read.

Smith explains how Nash would be a good fit and breaks down the teams that will be players for Nash's services. Here is the full list of teams I believe Nash would consider:

Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, Portland Traliblazers, Miami Heat, LA Lakers, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, and the Utah Jazz.

I can give you reasons why each of those teams doesn't work out for Nash, including the Jazz. But what I know about Steve Nash is that he is looking for a chance to win and a chance to be in a great position for his basketball talents. There is no doubt that Nash knows the personnel the Jazz have, both as a team, and as a front office. And there is no way that this situation isn't somewhat appealing to him. I put the Jazz as the 3rd best situation on that list of teams. If he came to Utah, the Jazz would immediately become a top 5 seed in the West and would be a legitimate dark horse for the title.

The Jazz can also outpay a few of those teams, believe it or not. Unlike AK, the Jazz can acquire Nash into their traded player exception. So if Steve Nash decided he wanted to play for the Jazz, he could sign, say a 3 year, $30 million deal with Phoenix and then be traded to the Jazz for a draft pick, or a player with a small salary, or for Ante Tomic's rights. The best case scenario would be to trade Devin Harris to Phoenix for Nash in a sign and trade scenario, but is certainly unlikely.

So while I don't expect Nash to join the Jazz this offseason, it is plausible and it would be a good situation for all parties involved, including Nash. Don't listen to anyone who says there is no chance Nash doesn't join the Jazz somehow this offseason.

In other interesting news that should interest the Jazz, Orlando Magic's contract for 2012-13 is fully unguaranteed, meaning that if the Magic decide to trade Dwight Howard and blow the team up (more likely than not), Redick would probably become a free agent if the Magic waived him before July 7th this summer. Redick would make a great addition to the Jazz, mostly because of this:

My pipe dream scenario for the Utah Jazz is that they trade Devin Harris, the 8th pick in this draft and whatever else short of Favors and Hayward for Stephen Curry and trade Al Jefferson to Milwaukee for the signed and traded Ersan Ilyasova. But since that has less than 2% chance of happening, I would settle for a sign and trade of Steve Nash and signing JJ Redick to the Mid Level Exception.

What is your dream scenario for this offseason? This will be fun. We have all summer.

[Ed note: Moved to the top of the page by popular demand : )]

Originally I ventured to write a post featuring the best 3 point shooters in the NBA and how the Jazz need to acquire some of them to improve offensively. I will still include that as part of a later post, but as I delved into the world of the 3 point shot and the Utah Jazz, I found that the Jazz first must change their offensive feelings of the 3 point shot. They need to embrace it and utilize it and, heaven forbid, purposefully shoot more of them.

Continue reading this post »

What to say about last night? This isn't the appropriate space for an entire recap of the game so here are a few thoughts.

Derrick Favors' Defensive Presence

Devin Harris' Epic Block

Demarre Carroll's Ronnie Price Impersonation

The Last 6 minutes made the Whole Series Worth it

Locker Room Clean Out Day is one of my favorites of the year. There is always one player who says something interesting and for every other comment that is boring and typical, you can read a lot into it for fun. Today was no different.

Raja Bell let loose obviously. So did CJ Miles.

I think it's safe to say that the chances CJ Miles and Raja Bell return next season, just decreased a little bit. Also, no wonder, Tyrone Corbin thinks Josh Howard has been such a great locker room presence.

There was a lot of unintentional comedy on twitter yesterday from Utah Jazz media. Here was my favorite:

It really isn't important if the Jazz coaches really did or didn't have their bags packed. It was the symbolism of such a statement. That they believed. Coach Corbin? He's just going to wait and see. Because, after all, he can pack pretty quickly for a two day trip to San Antonio.

On top of that, did anyone else notice the PR push to overcome Al Jefferson's "defeated" comments? It was funny. "The coaches have their bags packed for San Antonio." "The players look more relaxed than I've ever seen them. Ready to go." "No Jazz player wants tonight to be the last of the season,etc, etc." I was half expecting this tweet to come through at some point.

"Jazz are so confident in Game 4 win, that they have already sent Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson and Devin Harris to San Antonio for Game 5."

There is no question that no matter what the Jazz do with Devin Harris, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Josh Howard, Raja Bell, Demarre Carroll, CJ Miles, etc (see how crazy the offseason could be?) that the Jazz need to add 3 point shooters. That was never more evident than last night, when the Jazz went 0-13 from the 3 point line. The Jazz don't just need guys who can shoot from outside, or who are willing to take 3 point shots. We need 3 point specialists. We need guys who will not only make, but take 3 point shots.

When the Jazz were the best offense in the NBA in 1997-98, they took 8 three point attempts per game. They shot 37% from 3 point land as a team. They had 6 guys who shot better than 33% from 3, and 3 guys who shot over 40%.

This year the Jazz took 13 three pointers a game and only made 32.7% of them. That's horrible. It's got to get better. Nobody shot over 40% from 3.

Here are a few of the best 3 point shooters over the last few seasons:

Stephen Curry

Kyle Korver

Steve Novak

Brandon Rush

Mike Miller

Anthony Morrow

Mo Williams

Ray Allen

Ben Gordon

Matt Bonner

The Jazz have to figure out a way to land one or two of these guys. No excuses.

It's the off season, so it's time to start thinking about what could happen. For me, the off season is almost as fun as the season, when I get to put on my GM hat and play fantasy basketball. Obviously, the moves I want to see made, don't get made and for the most part, thank goodness. But this is the perfect time to make a big trade. If I had to bet, I would guess that Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson return to the team and play the whole season in Utah next year, so don't get excited fans of that option.

But it's time to move one of them. If you can get a lottery pick for one of them, fantastic. If you can trade one of them for one of those better 3 point specialists I listed, great. But I don't think you can give Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap AND Derrick Favors the minutes that they deserve. Math doesn't allow it. On top of that, if you aren't going to extend both of their contracts and keep them here beyond next season, then you need to get something now for them. Letting them go isn't enough. Because you can replace them with Favors and Kanter starting next year.

Let the off season fun begin.

Also, here is an unrestricted free agent, I think would fit with Favors perfectly.

Out of respect for the Utah Jazz team that has played really hard and wanted to win more than most fans this season, I vote that we don't make any mention of the offseason today. We will have plenty of time to talk about where the team should move forward from here and we will. But for today, we are going to address this current season and try to create some positive mojo for game 4. We're not dead yet.

Desperate times call for desperate measures and being down 3-0 may be enough to cause Tyrone Corbin to change the starting lineup for game 4. Reportedly, the question is whether or not to start Derrick Favors. I don't think there is any question that Favors has been the best Jazz player in this series overall. His impact on the game has been tremendous. In his 80 minutes he has played in the 3 games, the Spurs have only outscored the Jazz by 1 point, which is remarkable since the Spurs have outscored the Jazz by 58 points total. Favors only has 4 blocks on the series, but he challenges just about everything. He is so quick that when he is in, almost no San Antonio shot in the paint goes uncontested. I have always argued that blocked shots are a meaningless stat, because just the threat of a blocked shot is often more important. When you are forcing your opponent to shoot 15-20 footers instead of drive to the rim, you probably aren't blocking shots, but you are probably helping your defense even more.

I can't find video, but I remember a commercial John Stockton did for Zion's Bank with a slow motion montage of him shooting and dribbling alone in a gym, talking about giving 110% like Zion's bank does. I hadn't thought about that commercial in years, but I've been thinking about effort and what it means to give 110% (obviously it's just a cliche and most cliches aren't meaningful).

What does it mean to you to "give it your all?" Does it mean to just move the fastest or be the most sweaty after the game? Does it mean that you dive on the floor for loose balls? I think those are the easy ways to see someone go "all out" but i think 90% of giving your best effort happens off the court. It happens in the offseason and in the film room. Because you also have to be your smartest to give your best. You can work your hardest, but if you aren't working smart, you aren't getting anywhere. Matt Harpring can play his hardest defense, but if he is stuck in "no man's land" on defense, it does no good. Gordon Hayward can run his hardest on a fast break, but if he doesn't run to the right spot, he might get a basketball thrown at his head. I guess the point of all of this is that the time for preparation for this series and this season happened a long time ago, but it is going to take a collective effort and gameplan to get a win tonight. That includes the Jazz players and the coaches. I think this team has played hard all year, but I'd love to see them play a little smarter too.

I plan on writing an entire post on the subject, but I will share a couple thoughts regarding 8th seeded teams in the NBA playoffs. I think the popular thought and assumption is that the Jazz went from a non-playoff team to an 8th seed, which will set us up to progress to a top 4 or 5 seed next year, just from natural progression. It has certainly happened for many teams. The Memphis Grizzlies were an 8th seed last year and are now the 4th seed for instance. There is no doubt playoff experience helps teams make a leap the next year, but Memphis also essentially added Rudy Gay in the offseason. I actually think this year's 8th seeds have a lot in common. The Jazz are good offensively and poor defensively. The Sixers are elite defensively and subpar offensively. Both the Jazz and Sixers are good mixes of veterans and young guns and the teams are sort of transitioning to youth movements. It will be interesting to see where both of those franchises go the next couple seasons.

I also find it fascinating that both of these teams entered their series with almost no chance of knocking off the #1 seed. The Jazz have followed the script, but after a blown ACL to Derrick Rose, the Sixers find themselves on the verge of round 2. It really is true that once you make the playoffs anything can happen, because anything has happened for Philadelphia. I guess the bottom line is that the Jazz are one destroyed Tony Parker ACL from getting to the 2nd round. That was not an endorsement of attacking Parker, by the way.

You can't have a playoff series without a little drama I suppose:

"We’re playing against a team that is at its peak, and I don’t see nobody beating ’em. … It’s a great team. I just take my hat off to ’em. Mad respect,"

"It gets to the point where you’re just playing a team that’s better than you; that know what it takes to win and know how to win,"

"If you lose to a team because you didn’t play your best, that’s one thing. If you’re playing your best and doing everything that you can, and you’re just playing against a team that’s better than you, that’s another one."

Those, as you probably know, are 3 quotes by Al Jefferson, about the Spurs. Those are quotes you would expect to hear from a guy who just got swept by a superior team. The problem for Al Jefferson is that there is still a series to finish and it sure sounds like Jefferson is already giving up on winning, which is strange.

In truth, I am not that bothered by Jefferson's comments. I think they are weird and ill timed and really honest. Al has always worn his heart on his sleeve and been really candid, and these comments are strange, but also just from the heart.

But there is no doubt that these comments will put a bad taste in a lot of Jazz fans' mouths, especially the ones who are upset with Al's playoff performance thus far. No matter how you feel about the quotes, I can't think of any scenario where a Jazz fan thinks more highly of Big Al after those comments.

I spent my Monday morning hanging out with my son and doing what fathers and sons do. We watched sporting events. We spent the morning rewatching and analyzing game 1 of the playoffs. On Sunday I watched the game to watch the game. Yesterday I watched it to see what went right and what went wrong. And this point there are some encouraging things to take away from the game...and some major concerns. But I start you with this tidbit from Marc Stein's piece on the game (Stein is a Spurs fan and probably hasn't seen more than 5 Jazz games all year.)

(I'd also like to see Favors get more time after sparkling back-to-back rejections of Duncan and Ginobili in a productive first-half stint.)

If I could explain the difference between the Jazz and the Spurs right now in the playoffs, it would be that the Spurs value possessions better both offensively and defensively. Other than the Spurs' 10 turnovers, they get what they want offensively. Count the times the Jazz had to shoot with the shot clock running down as opposed to the wide open 3 pointers the Spurs get, but miss. The Spurs get what they want offensively 90% of the time, and the Jazz maybe 75%. (totally raw numbers).

I watch my fair share of game tape to try to figure out where things break down or where things work, but I don't often share that on the downbeat. But after watching game 1, I honestly think that Derrick Favors needs to play 32-36 minutes every game. He HAS to play. The main reason is that both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are very bad in space against, Tony Parker, for instance when they have to switch onto him. And on top of that Al Jefferson really struggles when hedging the pick n roll. Here are some pictures:

Tiago Splitter sets a screen on Tinsley and Al Jefferson comes out to hedge (deter) the ball handler and hopefully slow him up or force him away from the screen. But look what happens:

Al Jefferson hedges so hard and doesn't really slow down Gary Neal much. Splitter rolls to the basket and now Derrick Favors is left to choose between guarding Tiago Splitter who is right under the basket or Matt Bonner at the 3. He can't do both and the Spurs get an open Bonner 3, exactly what they wanted. Some will tell you this is unguardable and that the Spurs are just that good. But if that's true, we might as well just stay in Utah and not even show up for the games. Playing Favors more minutes to bolster our defense of the pick n roll would be a good start.

Not enough can be said about Gordon Hayward's game 1. It was a performance that slips under the radar easily, but not only did he make 12 of 12 free throws, he really muted Manu Ginobili. Ginobili started the game 3 of 4 from the field with two dunks and one 12 foot baseline jumper. He then misses his next 6 shots the rest of the game and only shoots 2 free throws for the game. This is the same Ginobili who shot 6 free throws a game the last time we met him in the playoffs, including a 15-15 performance.

As for the free throws I am having a hard time finding a guy who got to the line 12 times in their playoff debut. He attacked the rim aggressively and often. When Malone scored his 23 points, he only shot 3 free throws. In his 3rd season, in his playoff debut, Lebron James went 7 for 11 at the free throw line. It took Dwyane Wade 10 playoff games before he shot over 10 free throws.

Finally, it can't be emphasized enough what a strange decision it was for Tyrone Corbin to start Josh Howard over Demarre Carroll in game 1. It's not even that Carroll is the obvious choice, because he doesn't do anything spectacularly, but he played that much better than Howard in game one, who basically gave the Jazz nothing in that game. If the Jazz start Carroll instead of Howard, they still probably lose. But that isn't a reason to justify the move.

I watched Moneyball the other night and couldn't help but think of some Utah Jazz coaching decisions when I watched the scenes with the scouts. If you wanted to know, Coach Corbin represents the scouts.

Or Maybe the coaching staff represents the scouts.

One game down, only 16 more to go til a championship. You can look at the game yesterday one of two ways Either the Jazz got good experience from game 1 and will now know better how to play on Wednesday, or else the Jazz missed their best opportunity to steal a road game. You are free to feel however you want to, but here are some things to consider:

-Before yesterday, the Spurs had lost the first game of their last 6 series. They have gone 4-2 in those six series and won the second game in 5 of the 6.

- The Spurs only shot 6-17 from beyond the 3 point line yesterday.

- The Jazz both shot and made more free throws than the Spurs in game one.

- Manu Ginobili had 7 points on 3-10 shooting.

-The Jazz didn't play their best, but a lot of things went right for them. They lost by 15 points.

The great news is that the next game starts off zero to zero and the Jazz will have a chance to steal a game.

Derrick Favors highlights, courtesy of @prodigyjf (the best Jazzfan video guy on the market right now)

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is one of the premier defenders in the NBA. TrueHoop blog over at ESPN invited LRMaM to do a write up on the defenses of each of the playoff teams. Since the Jazz are the worst defensive team in the playoffs, I was intrigued by what might be said about them.

How good is Utah defensively?

They can cause some problems. They’re young and they play good basketball. They work hard.

Translation: They aren't very good defensively, but they play hard.

Mbah a Moute also gives the Jazz virtually no chance at winning the series.

By now you obviously know that Golden State won the coin flip drawing over the weekend and is currently in 7th place and keeping their pick. Unless one of the teams slotted 8-14 is able to jump into the lottery (27.5% chance) the Warriors will keep their pick and the Jazz will not have a first round pick in the 2012 draft. if the Jazz don't have a first round pick in this year's draft, does that increase the chance that Kevin O'Connor makes a trade for a point guard of the future or a 2012 lottery pick?

This is a picture of Mark Jackson trying to decide how big of a buffoon he is.

In case you didn't already notice, game one against the Spurs was a playoff debut for 7 of the 12 Jazz members who got playing time. That doesn't even count Al Jefferson who hasn't played in the playoffs in 7 years. Derrick Favors' numbers don't blow you away, but he played a really good game. But Gordon Hayward's debut was impressive, especially since he was able to hamper Ginobili's game defensively as well. Seventeen points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 12 free throws! Hopefully he can keep that up the whole series.

Can you match the Jazz player (current and former) with their playoff debut stats? All but player E are rookie season

Player A: 2 points, 3 rebounds, 1 block, 3 person fouls, 17 minutes

Player B: 4 points, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 3 person fouls, 13 minutes

Player C: 8 points, 6 assists, 2-3 shooting, 4-4 from the line

Player D: 23 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 43 minutes

Player E: 7 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 assist, 26 minutes

Player F: 10 points, 1 assist, 1 rebound, 4-6 shooting, 17 minutes

Today, we are going to start off by talking about freebies. So push play and follow along.

I coach high school tennis here in North Carolina and if there is one thing I emphasize with my boys, it is that they can't give their opponent free points. No double faults. No unforced errors. In any sport, a team or individual can defeat themselves by giving away too many freebies. The Jazz are super duper good at it. The main reason they find themselves as the 8th worst defense in the league? They send their opponents to the free throw line way too often.

Per teamrankings.com, the Jazz are the 3rd worst team in the NBA at opponents free throws. Jazz opponents shoot a free throw for essentially every 3 field goal attempts. Jazz opponents shoot a free throw on every 4 possessions. Those are really awful numbers and something the Jazz are going to have to learn to stop if they want to ever progress defensively.

Free throws are also the reason that I fear both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs. The Thunder score 20.7% of their points from free throws, 2nd in the NBA. They also have lead the NBA in free throw percentage for most of the season.

The Spurs on the other hand are a tough match up for the Jazz due to free throws as well. In their third meeting of the season, the Spurs shot a ridiculous 43 free throws against Utah. In the 3 games that San Antonio didn't send their JV team, they shot 104 free throws to the Jazz's 74. Wanna spot the Spurs 10 points a game?

Free throws are also the reason that I have a lot of high hopes for our future Jazz. Let's take a look at our main guys' free throws per field goal attempt. The less field goal attempts the better.

Al Jefferson 1 FT: 6 FGA

Paul Millsap 1 FT: 3.4 FGA

CJ Miles 1 FT: 3.5 FGA

Gordon Hayward 1 FT: 2.4 FGA

Alec Burks 1 FT: 2.5 FGA

Derrick Favors 1 FT: 2.3 FGA

Enes Kanter 1 FT: 2.4 FGA

Devin Harris 1 FT: 2.5 FGA

If you notice, all of our young guys are some of the best at getting to the free throw line. That is going to be huge in the future. If the Jazz youngsters can continue to shoot this many free throws per field goal attempts, they are going to be living at the line more often than this current team. They will be taking advantage of their opponents giving out freebies.

For reference Lebron James shoots 2.3 field goals per free throw attempt, Dwyane Wade 2.8 and Dwight Howard 1.3. Ronnie Price is at 5.2.

If you are a Jazz Hater, or are looking to spend $5 to join a Jazz Haters Fan Club, or you just want a good laugh, check this website out. They accept Paypal. Hurry fast though. Memberships are limited. Warning: If you are sensitive about Jazz hate, don't visit the site.

If the Jazz lose tonight, you will know who to blame:

If you are newer to this site, you might not know that we have a lot of superstitious Jazz fans here. And this seems like a serious jinx that could blow up in the team's face. I mean, couldn't they wait just one day to start selling playoff tickets? I understand they are early bird tickets and the playoffs are in like 5 days, but how embarrassing would it be to purchase playoff tickets that never exist?

BREAKING UPDATE: That one fan club I told you about, has disbanded.

The Jazz haven't beaten the Suns since March 4th, 2010. The Suns have won 8 matchups in a row and 12 of the last 16. Steve Nash has bested the Jazz plenty in his career, including leading the Dallas Mavericks back from 0-2 to win a best of 5 game series against the Jazz in 2001. So this isn't the biggest game the Jazz have played against Nash, but it's up there. Be there. Be early. Be loud.

What a weird, wild, wacky season it's been. I honestly don't know where to start. The Jazz are one win away from making the playoffs. It's real now. In the past few weeks, the Jazz would be headed toward the playoffs, then lose a heartbreaker to Minnesota. Then they'd get an unexpected win and move back on the playoff track, only to lose to New Orleans. Now it's down to one game. We win we are in. I can't believe I am saying that.

There are several songs that describe portions of this season. This is the song that describes this season for me right now.

I will be really happy if the Jazz can sneak into the playoffs. The opportunity to root for the Jazz in the playoffs again would be really welcomed. I didn't think this team had a chance to make it happen, 3 months ago. If I could have written the script for this Jazz season and how it should have been carried out, it would have been much different. But looking back, a lot of great things have happened for our vets and our youngsters and the playoffs would be the cherry on top. A lot of things have led to this opportunity to make the playoffs, but you have to admit that a bunch of that has been absolute luck.

Not only have the Jazz been able to avoid injuries for the most part, but you could argue that injuries have benefitted the Jazz greatly. I know that sounds harsh and cruel, but I believe it is true. More on that later. But other than the Jazz and injuries, injuries to the Jazz's opponents has been really timely and...well, lucky.

There is no doubt that every team has benefitted from injuries to opponents this year, but let me illustrate. Jazz played Milwaukee one game after Andrew Bogut was injured. Memphis two games after Zach Randolph went down. The Clippers one game after Chris Paul went down. They got Minnesota at home the game after Ricky Rubio lost his season and won in overtime. We beat Golden State in overtime right after Monta Ellis was injured and Curry was already out. We got the Spurs when they were resting their 3 best players. We got the Magic in the middle of all their dysfunction. Every team gets lucky breaks, but this is list is ridiculous. And now with two games, that we need to win, we are getting the Suns the game after they lose Channing Frye (who is probably their second hardest player to replace) and a home game against the Blazers who are probably the second worst team in the NBA right now.

Somebody up their likes us. Maybe we have Big Al's grandma to thank.

One other stroke of luck for the Jazz? Injuries serendipitously lead to Paul Millsap playing more small forward.

If you haven't read it yet, you need to read all of Kevin Pelton's writeup on Millsap's move to the 3. Pelton describes it as the move that saved the Jazz's season and he isn't being dramatic. If you remember the first time we saw Millsap play extended minutes at the 3, we were losing to Portland by 14 in the 2nd quarter of a game we looked horrible in. Al Jefferson subbed in for Alec Burks giving the Jazz a lineup of Devin Harris, Gordon Hayward, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, and Al Jefferson. Over the next 29 minutes the Jazz outscored Portland 68-49, sparked by the "Big 3 lineup." In the Orlando game, the Jazz outscored the Magic 71-37 while Millsap, Favors and Jefferson were in the lineup. It truly is the lineup that saved the season and might give us our only chance of competing in the playoffs.

The "Big 3 lineup" is effective for 3 reasons in my opinion. They are in order of importance:

1. Derrick Favors is on the floor more often, anchoring the defense, while not having to be a main offensive weapon.

2. It allows the Jazz to have their 5 best players on the floor at one time. We can debate about who the 5 best players on the Jazz are, but I think it's impossible to argue that Millsap, Jefferson and Favors aren't in the top 5. So if you sit one of them, then you are guaranteeing that one of your best 5 players isn't on the floor.

3. The Jazz have below average options at the small forward position if Millsap isn't there. And the Jazz are great at defensive rebounding with this lineup.

The only question we can ask is this: Where was this lineup for the rest of the season?

We have argued reasons for why Millsap can or can't play the small forward position. I certainly didn't ever think it would be this successful, but I figured we would see it earlier and more often than we have, for the reasons I stated up above. One reason to not try the lineup is that Millsap wouldn't be able to guard many small forwards. Here is the list of Small Forwards he has had to guard in the last 11 games.

Nicolas Batum

Jared Dudley

Dorell Wright

Kawhi Leonard

Chandler Parsons

Al Farouq-Aminu

Rudy Gay

Quentin Richardson

Rudy Gay is the best Small Forward on this list and he had the best performance of any of them, although it wasn't ridiculous or anything. I think the common thread is that none of these small forwards are very versatile other than Gay. The other Small Forwards either aren't very good offensively or else just shoot 3 pointers and can't drive. Millsap hasn't had to guard the Lebron James or Kevin Durants of the league. At the same time, the NBA is short on fantastic, versatile small forwards, so over the course of a season, Paul Millsap would probably be fine.

I also can't imagine that Coach Corbin won't use Millsap, Favors, and Jefferson together often in the playoffs, granted we make the playoffs.

And on top of that, I can't wait to see if this storyline, forces the Jazz to hold onto both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap next season.

In the spirit of jinxing, I'm not even going to mention the fantastic thing that happened last night. Instead, let's talk about this tweet from Jody Gennessy:

While I completely understand any fan who wants the Jazz to retain their own lottery pick, I want to address the second part of Jody's statement. Kevin O'Connor has other options. The Jazz have options and can trade to get a lottery pick if there is a player they want to draft. O'Connor admitted as much to reporters over the weekend.

1. The Jazz will have expiring contracts in Al Jefferson, Devin Harris, and Paul Millsap leading up to the draft. Not only are expiring contracts very valuable in trades, but each of those players have value. Any one of those guys could be traded straight up for a lottery pick.

2. The Jazz could also trade one of those expiring contracts to take back a player with a bad contract along with a lottery pick.

3. The Jazz could use their trade exception to take back a bad contract along with a lottery pick.

4. On top of all of this there are a handful of teams that will have multiple first round picks this draft and would possibly be more willing to trade. New Orleans will have two lottery picks. Portland might have two. Houston will have two picks in the top 20 picks.

Like Jody said, "KOC has options."

A Jazz Playoff Push is now in Utah in stable, but critical condition after being found down in an empty hotel room in Memphis. Medical responders were first on the scene and performed CPR and stabilized the playoff push enough to bring it back to Utah, where it will continue to receive treatment. Police investigators had no comment at this time and no further details on whether foul play was involved. Updates to follow.

That really was a crazy basketball game. It was nothing like the overtime game in Atlanta, where both teams were just trying to survive each other. The Dallas game had putback dunks, clutch 3 pointers, an intense crowd and a game that was very important for both teams. Paul Millsap had a putback dunk to send it to overtime. Devin Harris had a couple clutch three point plays/shots. And Derrick Favors fouled out with 5 personals. Demarre Carrol became Gerald Henderson for a night. Al Jefferson set the all-time Jazz record for rebounds (Mark Eaton grabbed 25 rebounds twice) with 26, also putting in the 40th best regular season rebounding performance of all time. The Jazz hit a season high number of 3 point shots.

And there was this strange exchange between Gordon Hayward and Delonte West:

Such an awkward shot block attempt. I mean, they almost bump into each other in the air.

We are now halfway through with this downbeat. Here is your halftime entertainment:

I was reading ESPN fan chats this past weekend and there were 3 questions about the Jazz that I wanted to address:

This is how I feel about coach Corbin. He has made some mistakes, mostly little ones. Jazz fans are super critical, as I have been at times. In the end, he is a rookie and deserves development time, just like any of our young guys do. I think he is learning and I think he has the potential to be very very good. I hope he's around for a long time.

A couple of things here. I think with 30 minutes a night, Derrick Favors could make the NBA all-defensive team here. The more I watch him, the more I think he is going to become Tyson Chandler with slightly better offensive skills, which would be a very very good player.

Secondly, there aren't many NBA experts who don't think the Jazz won't make a trade to free up a starting role for Favors next year. I obviously agree with them, but this is the Jazz we are talking about. They don't do things just because conventional wisdom suggests they should.

This is the great philosophical question for the Jazz this year. I started out the season completely disagreeing with John Hollinger's take, but over the course of the season, I have certainly seen the value in that philosophy, to compete for the playoffs. I still disagree to some point with the idea. I think you challenge for the playoffs or try to make the playoffs with what you have, but you don't sacrifice the future just to make the playoffs. And I also think there is little to be learned by getting killed in the first round of the playoffs with a shortened rotation. But at the same time, you can't advance in the playoffs without getting there first and strange things can happen. The nice thing, that many have brought up before, is that the Jazz will either make the playoffs, or else have a lottery pick. It's a win-win sort of.

I thought David Locke made one of his more insightful realizations on the season in his Tip Off yesterday morning. He mentioned that 15 of the 16 playoff teams this year are in the top 16 best defensive teams. That number has changed to 14 teams, since last night with Phoenix moving past Houston, but the point remains. You almost guarantee a playoff spot this year by being a better than average defensive team. In contrast, only 11 playoff teams are found in the top 16 teams in offensive production. The Jazz are currently the 10th best offensive team in the NBA, but the 8th worst defensive team. The Jazz will only become serious playoff contenders when they start to defend more seriously. We can, and should debate, exactly how they can do that further, but they need to improve their defensive production. Notice how I didn't say effort.

They are all big games from here. The Jazz playoff hopes are barely alive, but improving quickly.

Gordon Hayward has certainly been the hot topic with the Jazz lately. That will happen when you score 17 points, grab 4.5 rebounds, and dish out 3.5 assists over the last 8 games, while shooting 50% from the field and 46% from beyond the arc. Those are all-star type numbers. No Jazz player has had a bigger jump post all star game than Hayward and in the last 20 games, Gordon has arguably been our best player.

Here are Gordon's stats from before and after the All-star game this year:

In short, Hayward increased his numbers across the board by about 33% in only 20% more minutes, while raising his shooting percentage by 5% and his 3 point % by 15. No other Jazz man has made such an improvement this season. Derrick Favors has bettered his rebounding numbers significantly the second half, but made only small improvements in other areas. Devin Harris has made improvements in his points, rebounds, and assists, but is also shooting worse from the field in the second half of the season.

This huge jump in production post all star break, isn't new for Hayward. He had an even larger jump last season:

So what can we attribute the second half improvement to? Is Hayward a slow starter and strong finisher? If it was unique to this season, I would guess that playing in the sophomore game at the All-Star break gave him a boost of confidence. Maybe he was more confident after Deron Williams got shipped out last season. Or maybe it is due to the fact that both years, Hayward has become a more focal part of the offense in the second half of the season, rather than a 3 point shooter who doesn't have the ball in his hands as often. Take your pick. It's probably a combination.

I don't know many Jazz fans who love Gordon Monson as a beat writer, but he wrote a really nice piece this weekend on Derrick Favors. The article starts off with a potentially troublesome quote from Favors:

"At the beginning, because I have so much pride and confidence in my game, I was like, ‘I’m playing good, I should be playing more,’ " he says. "I didn’t say nothing to anybody, but that’s the way I was feeling. I had to deal with it."

Uh oh. Trouble brewing in Jazz land. Or maybe not. Not with a guy like Favors.

"I know my opportunity’s going to come," he says. "Everywhere I go, people tell me, ‘You should be playing 30 minutes.’ I tell them my situation — I’ve got to wait my turn. I’m playing behind two guys who could have been All-Stars this year. It’s not like they’re bums or something. I’ve got to learn, work hard, be patient."

I hope he means what he is saying. I have an inclination that he does. It's a mature approach to his playing situation, especially for a guy his age. But here is my favorite quote from the article.

"When I dunk or block a shot, I’m not going to be banging my chest and screaming, and all that. After a dunk, I run back and get on defense. The fire is there. … I’m not a showboating person. If you’re showboating, you’re weak. You don’t need to showboat. Just go out there and do the job. I just want to do my job and win games."

Nothing can kill your team more than allowing your opponent to come down the court and score because you were busy showing off for a job well done. If you were watching the Knicks-Heat game from yesterday, you may have noticed that JR Smith and Carmelo Anthony do this way too often. It's horrible. I love the fact that Favors just does his job, and stays humble about it. It's a nice trait in at least 3 of our young guys. All four of our guys just want to win which is fantastic too.

Our young guys have learned the desire to win because they have played on a competitive team all season and not been handed minutes. If they played for any other team, those guys would be totally fine with losing. All sarcasm aside, I do think it's impressive that the Utah Jazz organization has basically met their goals this season. I am all for the Jazz trying to win games and I'm all for the Jazz surrounding the future young guys with veteran players, even though I have been against how the plan was carried out, by giving the lion's share of the minutes and touches to the short-term veterans. But other than probably missing the playoffs, the front office has to be pleased with how their season has unfolded. They have made the entire season count up to this point. The games are competitive and even though it is mostly due to injuries and funerals, the young guys have increased in their roles and minutes over the course of the year. In many ways the season is turning out fairly well, with the help of fortune and circumstance. It'll be great if this season leads to featured roles for Favors, Hayward, AND Burks next year. WIth a supporting role for Kanter as well.

I thought this article was odd and weirdly timed:

Millsap isn't the type of guy to just start talking about contract extensions, so I am guessing he was responding to questions about his desire to stay in Utah and of course, he would be open to it. So would any other Jazz player as long as it was the right fit and the contract was right. But it does remind us of the options the Jazz have. Do they trade Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap before their contracts are done? Just one of them? Or do they extend their contracts, which is an option few have talked about until now? I still think that the day of the draft will be the day to look at. I think by draft day, either Millsap or Jefferson are dealt and for the first time I am thinking that maybe the big man who stays has his contract extended.

Just in case the Jazz don't make the playoffs, it is about time to start looking at the 2012 NBA Draft. It's too early to start speculating about the Jazz's options until we know if and where they are picking in the draft, but unlike last year, the top prospects are declaring for the draft which is terrific news for the Jazz. We will delve into the Jazz's draft options til our faces turn blue all summer, but just know that if the Jazz do pick in the 8-14 range, there is going to be a fantastic player available to them.

That was close. I was right in the middle of putting together a eulogy on the Jazz season, when they made one last push to beat the Developmental League affiliate for the San Antonio Spurs. A win's a win, but your record also reflects what kind of team you are and that Jazz team last night, didn't look so hot. Despite all of this, the playoffs are still a real possibility, but one more unexpected loss will probably write the Jazz's tombstone.

It will be interesting to see how the Jazz address their future at the point guard spot this offseason. The Jazz could certainly draft a rookie point guard if they have one or two draft picks, but let's be honest. No rookie point guard is going to start for the Jazz next season. There are a couple of free agent point guards that would fit in really nicely here in Utah and that is Steve Nash and Goran Dragic. Nash is the better point guard right now and his desire to play for 3 more years, works really well with the Jazz's plans, since they could offer Nash something in the vicinity of 3 years, $24-30 million and trump other teams' offers.

Dragic is not as seasoned as Nash, but he would possibly come at a cheaper price tag. But Kyle Lowry's health issues couldn't have come at a better time for Dragic, since he has put up fantastic numbers as a starter in Lowry's absence. Someone is going to pay him.

Unfortunately, Portland will also pursue both Nash and Dragic in the offseason and they will not only be able to offer more money to those players, but also a starting point guard spot, since Raymond Felton will be a free agent and the Jazz will still have Devin Harris. I think the likelihood that Harris is the starting point guard for game one of next season for the Jazz is about 90% right now.

As soon as i spoke about the Jazz's good fortunes with injuries, we get news that Earl Watson is out indefinitely and CJ Miles is out at least a week. Tomorrow, Jazz employees are going to tell you how amazing Kevin O'Connor has been in compiling a roster that is able to absorb these injuries and how the Jamaal Tinsley and Demarre Carroll signings were so smart in hindsight. Okay. Tinsley was a smart hire, but honestly, has Carroll helped the Jazz win one game this year? i can't remember any. Basically I fault Kevin O'Connor for one major thing: if you are serious about competing for the playoffs, then you have no excuse for not having found a 3 point specialist to sign. They are a dime a dozen and some are still available. We have needed one since the day Kyle Korver walked out the door.

Just for fun I'll name 5 players the Jazz could have signed over say...Josh Howard for about the same money that would have made more sense:

Steve Novak

Mike Dunleavy Jr.

Anthony Parker

Reggie Williams

Michael Redd

One of the moves that KOC has orchestrated is the signing of Development-Leaguer, Blake Ahearn. Here's all you need to know about Ahearn courtesy of espn.com:

It should also be noted that Ahearn's father, Steve Blake, of the LA Lakers, is really happy his son is back in the NBA.

If I could describe this Utah Jazz season in one sentence, I would do this: This Jazz team/organization play really hard, but not necessarily smart. What would your sentence be to describe this team/season?

At this point, San Antonio has to be considered our arch enemy, right? We can't beat those guys. We have won in Los Angeles the last couple of years and a rivalry with Oklahoma City is just getting started. But San Antonio dominates us. It is sad that we get them two games in a row during an important playoff push and it sucks that they could leave Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan in San Antonio and still feel like a threat to beat us tomorrow night in SLC (reports are that Ginobili and possibly Tim Duncan won't even make the trip for tonight's game).

When one of your starters plays their worst game of their career, you will have a hard time beating very good teams. Paul Millsap had his worst game as a starter. Two points, 3 rebounds on 1-8 shooting. The only other time Millsap scored so few points as a starter, he also managed 8 rebounds and 3 assists and only went 0-3 from the field. The positive about last night is that Millsap was struggling and so Tyrone adapted his coaching to play Paul only 21 minutes and gave Derrick Favors 30 minutes. Favors responded with arguably the best performance of the team with 14 and 12 on 7-10 shooting.

Here's a frustrating thing about this season. The Jazz have had some lucky breaks and they still aren't a lock to make the playoffs. We can look back to the string of games the Jazz had early in the season against teams missing their best players. The Jazz have been very lucky in terms of injuries. I am going to make an opinion and say that neither Josh Howard or Raja Bell are the Jazz's most important players. You may disagree, but I just don't think their extended injuries are huge deals. I think that Devin Harris, Gordon Hayward, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, and Al Jefferson have been the Jazz's most important players this season. Among those 5 players injuries, or circumstances, have cost the Jazz 10 total missed games from those 5 players. And on top of that, the Jazz have a winning record in those 10 games that they've been down one of those 5 players. Now compare that to the other teams the Jazz are battling for the playoffs:

Denver- Danilo Gallinari has missed more than 20 games. So has Rudy Fernandez.

Houston- Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry, and Chase Budinger have missed a combined 40 games due to injury. Kyle Lowry is the Rockets best player and he may be done for the season and has missed 17 games.

Portland- Has imploded and traded away their 2nd best player for a draft pick.

Memphis- Zach Randolph has missed 37 games due to injury.

Dallas- Has been relatively healthy, but has lost Delonte West, an important, versatile player for them, to 20 games.

The Jazz have had really fantastic luck with injuries and they still might miss the playoffs. That's frustrating. And something needs to be addressed this offseason if the Jazz management is serious about pushing for the playoffs. And with all that said, the playoffs are still a possibility this season. Denver is the team to watch.

David Locke can be a bit of a loud mouth whose voice can grate on you a bit. He can belittle fans too harshly sometimes. He desperately needs an editor for his written work. He has a hard time balancing his fandom with his "toeing the company line" persona. But he is also a super duper hard working guy, who tries his best to bring a good product and experience to the Jazz fanbase. No play by play guy, that I know of works harder to interact with fans and discuss important matters.

Locke has been conducting some nice podcasts on the Utah Jazz blog and I highly recommend the podcast that was done with NBA.com's Sekou Smith. If you are like me and have wanted the young guys to get more playing time since last year, you need to hear the podcast. Smith makes some good points about the Jazz and their development of young guys that almost made me appreciate the way the Jazz have groomed, Hayward, Favors, Burks and Kanter. Almost.

One of the stories Sekou Smith tells about the Jazz is how the Hawks justified not drafting Deron Williams by saying how Deron must not be good since he wasn't earning minutes over Keith McLeod and Milt Palacio. Smith, who worked for the Hawks at the time, defended the Jazz by saying how important it is for Jazz rookies to earn their playing time and mentions how the Jazz handled Deron's playing time perfectly, even if it upset him.

That got me thinking. A lot of theories as to why Favors and Burks don't get more playing time have been bandied about, including the front office holding them back, so they won't have to pay them such big extensions when the time comes. I don't buy that.

But I do wonder if the Jazz are trying to purposefully not cater to the young guys, because they don't want to repeat the Deron Williams' fiasco. What part does all of the Deron drama play into how the Jazz treat Derrick and Gordon and Alec? Will the Jazz purposefully not offer maximum contracts and avoid the idea of a "top dog" in order to maintain a sense of control? I don't know. But it will be something to watch for the next few years.

Huge, possibly season-saving win last night in Portland. Lots of emotional rollercoaster rides and lots of story lines last night. We will discuss some of those story lines further, but what was your highlight of last night's victory?

One story line from last night was the Millsap, Favors, Jefferson front court. Many Jazz fans have been asking for this very lineup and there have been reasons why Jazz fans have expected it to happen at some point. For one thing, Millsap played some small forward at the end of last season and then there is this:

You can't see the date on this tweet, but it was from before the first game of the regular season. From what I can tell, neither Evans nor Millsap had played any significant minutes at the small forward position all season. Maybe the first minutes this season.

The question is: can this lineup continue to be successful or was it a one time thing?

And just when you thought the point guard issue was becoming a big problem:

I'm not a doctor, but that sprain looked pretty bad. I wouldn't be surprised if it kept Harris out for a couple of games. This is when having two good back up point guards is now a fantastic problem. If Harris is out against Phoenix, who starts?

If there is one Jazz fan who would be the last Jazz fan to quote scripture, would it be this guy?

Absolutely Hilarious. How did he come up with that scripture?

In case you were wondering, that scripture perfectly describes last night's game. Please refer to the downbeat title.

James Peterson is the author of the Utah Jazz blog Harpringer of Doom. You should read that blog for the name alone, but also for the content. Here is a well thought out post on the Jazz's chances of making the playoffs. James has the Jazz falling one game out of the playoffs and I tend to agree. The Jazz are going to have to win one more game this season that is an expected loss, I think. And last night doesn't count. However, a loss last night probably keeps us out of the playoffs, so that win was huge. Also, Houston got an unexpected win last night over Chicago. It looks like Denver and Utah may duke it out for the last spot.

The nice thing is that the Jazz are going to end up with either a lottery pick or a playoff meeting. Thats a nice win-win situation. Some Jazz fans would prefer for the Jazz to miss the playoffs and get a pick and some Jazz fans would rather the Jazz get some experience in the playoffs.

If you find yourself on one side of the issue, does that stance have conditions? If you want the lottery pick, does it change your mind if you know the Jazz will have the 14th pick and no other first round pick? If you want the Jazz to make the playoffs, does it change your mind if you knew that the Jazz would get swept and only one of the games was competitive, much like the Laker series two seasons ago? What if you knew that Coach Corbin would rely more heavily on the vets in the postseason and that the young guys didn't even see much of the floor? Discuss.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this last weekend was probably the worst weekend for the Jazz on the whole season. Hardly anything went right. Not only did the Jazz lose both of their games, but pretty much every other team did what the Jazz didn't want them to do. The Kings win gets them closer to passing the Warriors, which is bad for the Jazz. The Clippers beat the Blazers, the Mavs beat the Magic, the Rockets and Nuggets won (twice for Denver), the Grizzlies beat the Bucks and the Warriors tanked away a gimme. It was an epically horrible weekend for the Utah Jazz.

So Derrick Favors gets the chance to start, due to Al Jefferson attending his grandma's funeral and he puts up 35points, 27 rebounds, 6 assists, 12-23 from the field and 11-14 from the line in 63 total minutes. Fourteen free throws on only 23 field goal attempts is really really good. Since those two games, Favors has played 169 minutes in 8 games and put up only 66 points, grabbed 62 rebounds, dished out 6 assists, gone 21-56 from the field, and 24-35 from the line. Only his free throw attempts per shot attempt has held up. Every other stat is about half as productive per minute than when he started. Now some might say that this a coincidence, or that Favors is just coming back to his averages. I don't buy it. He knows he's better than the chance he's getting to show. He's frustrated. Maybe not at the Jazz, or Coach Corbin, or his teammates, but just at the situation. The situation sucks. It sucks for the Jazz and it sucks for Jazz fans and it sucks for the team's chances of making the playoffs. Corbin doesn't need to start Favors necessarily, but it's ludicrous and unforgivable for him to turn around and give Favors the same minutes and role he had before he dominated those two games.

Oh and probably most alarming is the Jazz's defensive efficiency in those two games he started compared to the 8 since:

In 7 of the last 8 games, the Jazz's defensive efficiency has been greater than 100 (higher number is bad) and when Favors started, the defensive DefEff was 90.2 and 94.3. Absolutely stunning and not coincidental.

In related news, here is a prediction I am sad to be right about.

If you asked most Jazz fans what the biggest problem is with the Jazz right now, I would guess that far too many would say the fact that Earl Watson is getting Jamaal Tinsley's minutes. The thing I find funny is how much Jazz fans loved Earl Watson earlier in the year. Some wanted him to start and play over Harris for the first half of the season. Now he sucks. I do think it is fishy how Watson replaced Tinsley in the rotation immediately after throwing a fuss to the media about playing time. That sends an awful precedent and message. But Watson's playing time isn't that big of a deal. I agree with Jody Genessy, that it really isn't a huge deal compared to other issues.

Again, this is what happens when you decide to sign too many guys that deserve minutes. You have issues like this. We have the same issue with our big men that we have with our point guards. You can pretend that it gives us great depth, and we all have, but honestly, it's a mistake not to have an obvious hierarchy to your roster. A team needs defined roles. This is how I felt about it months ago. I liked the Tinsley signing, but scratched my head when he was brought in as a third stringer.

I correctly predicted that Tinsley would become as popular among Jazz fans as Watson did. Again, it's another prediction I am not happy was correct.

We have talked from time to time about the Jazz making the playoffs and losing quickly to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but I think there is a worse matchup for the Jazz and that would be the San Antonio Spurs. Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker would eat our pick and roll defense alive, they have depth at the big man positions with Splitter's improved play, the Jazz have nobody to follow Bonner out to the 3 point line, and we hardly ever win in San Antonio. Not to mention the lopsidedness of a matchup of Corbin vs. Popovich. Unfortunately, if the Jazz stumble their way into the playoffs, they are on a collision course with either the Thunder or the Spurs.

Trivia Question: What team has the Utah Jazz met most often in the playoffs and how many of those series did the Jazz win?

Last night the Jazz beat down Deron Williams and the New Jersey Nets behind big performances and 32 minutes from each of Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson. Devin Harris also added 11 assists in 30 minutes. I guess we can put to rest the lingering effects of that Atlanta loss. Hopefully they never rear their head this season.

This is the first of several very big weeks left in the season for the Utah Jazz. Obviously the Jazz have a game at Boston tomorrow night, a home game against the Kings on Friday and an away battle against the Clippers on Saturday. That game in LA will have huge playoff implications, as the Clippers are one of the teams the Jazz can conceivably surpass in the standings. So how high or low can the Jazz truly go in the standings in the next 16 games? Let's break it down team by team:

Sixteen games left. Eight at home, eight on the road. Eight games against current playoff teams, with 6 of those against Western Playoff teams. Probable record: 35-31.

Uncatchable. Could finish the season 6 and 11 and still beat the Jazz if the Jazz won every game left.

Also out of reach, theoretically.

Seventeen games left. Nine at home, 8 on the road. Nine games against current playoff teams, all against western conference playoff teams. Three and a half game lead over the Jazz and a five game lead over the Jazz in the tiebreaker. Probable record: 39-27. I really see little chance of the Jazz catching the Lakers.

Seventeen games left. Eight at home, nine on the road. Nine games against current playoff teams, with 7 of those against Western teams. Still have to play Oklahoma City twice. Difficult schedule. Probable record: 35-31. The Jazz could catch the Clippers, but it would probably require a win this Saturday in the Staples center, to gain a game on them and to break the tiebreaker with the Clippers. Jazz are a game and a half behind the Clippers and each team has one once in their head to head matchups.

Sixteen games left: seven at home, 9 on the road. Eleven games against current playoff teams, 7 of those against Western teams. Probable record: 38-28. Have won all three meetings with the Jazz and own the tiebreaker. Jazz have very little chance to catch the Mavericks.

Nineteen games left. Ten at home, nine on the road. Nine games against current playoff teams, seven of those against Western teams. Half game lead on the Jazz, but the Jazz own the tiebreaker with Memphis. Probable record: 36-30. Obviously a team the Jazz could catch.

Sixteen games left, nine on the road, 7 at home. Possibility of no Kyle Lowry the rest of the year. Ten games against current playoff teams, 7 of those Western Conference teams. Probable record: 35-31. Winner of game in Houston on April 11, will hold the tiebreaker. If the Jazz can win that game, they probably stay in front of Houston.

Sixteen games left, 10 on the road. Seven games against current playoff teams with 5 of those in the Western Conference. Difficult schedule. Utah owns the tiebreak between the two teams. Probable record: 35-31. Another super close call. Sheesh, this playoff race is going to be tough.

Seventeen games left, eight at home, nine on the road. Thirteen games against current playoff teams, all in the Western Conference. Yikes. Probable record: 32-34. Phoenix has a better record than they should, but they are going to fall short. Too difficult of a schedule ahead.

Of course, my predictions aren't concrete, but hopefully this gives you a good picture of what lies ahead. Obviously the Jazz could find themselves on the wrong side of some tiebreakers and out of the playoffs as easily as they could be a 5th seed. But as you can see, passing any of OKC, SA, LAL, or DAL is probably too much to ask. I think the 5th seed is our ceiling. And the game against the Clippers on Saturday will be huge with a capital H.

Of course, you can't talk about the playoff race without mentioning injuries, which will throw a wrench in all prognostications. Truthfully the Jazz's relatively good health, whether due to luck, or Tyrone Corbin's minute distributions, has been a big factor in their playoff push. Almost every other team has dealt with big injuries in the Western Conference. OKC lost Maynor, San Antonio has lost several games from Manu and others. The Lakers have been relatively healthy as have the Mavericks and Suns. The Clippers have lost Billups and Mo Williams. Memphis lost Zach Randolph and Houston Kyle Lowry. Denver has lost just about everybody at some time. And Minnesota lost their leader in Ricky Rubio.

Point is that the Jazz have been lucky. They have survived just fine without Raja Bell and Josh Howard and Al Jefferson for the couple games he has missed. Is there a Jazz player the team could lose and have a hard time recovering from? I don't think so. Hayward is probably our most valuable player right now, given the lack of depth behind him. And please don't come after me, if he goes down with an injury next game.

I know it is way too early to be talking about the draft, but I love it too much. But I am going to go out on a limb and predict who the Jazz will draft this June. Its this guy:

That's Damian Lillard. He fits a lot of needs. One, he can play some point guard. Two, he is an outside shooter. And three, he is a good citizen of Utah, so there are no worries about him fitting in with the team and the culture. There's just too many things that add up.

I am right about a lot of things. I consider myself a fairly knowledgable Jazz fan. But I am also not afraid to admit what I am wrong about. So here it goes. I was very wrong about this Jazz team. I might still be right that they are not a playoff team, but I pegged them for 28 wins this season and they are going to reach that milestone this week. Devin Harris, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap have all been better than I expected this season. I was wrong about Al Jefferson. I still don't see a way he can or should be in the long term plans of the Jazz, but he has become a good player that can contribute to a winning, playoff team. That wasn't true before this year. He still has his faults, like anyone, but he has learned to play as a good teammate within a structured system.

I was wrong about Alec Burks. I thought he lacked athleticism and an outside shot. I thought he'd be an average and inefficient scorer, but he's special. I was wrong.

In the spirit of full confession, what have you been wrong about in terms of the Jazz?

If you are reading this blog, chances are you saw the disappointing Jazz loss in a meager 4 overtimes last night. And if you saw that game, chances are, you have already taken to twitter to voice your displeasure with Tyrone Corbin. Was it crazy how all of the starters played over 50 minutes, including at least 12 straight minutes after regulation? Yes. Was it justifiable? Maybe so. I'll let you all in on a little secret. Tyrone Corbin isn't going to turn to Derrick Favors, or Alec Burks, or Enes Kanter, unless he is forced to. He's proven that time and time again, and it doesn't look like that is ever going to change. It is frustrating and I believe it is a huge mistake to give the minutes he is giving to Derrick Favors and Alec Burks. But if you are surprised and upset whenever Tyrone Corbin shows his hand, get used to it. He will do it again. Maybe even tomorrow. At least he's consistent.

I do believe that Ty Corbin's decision was justifiable. He feels like we need to win every game and if you look at the standings, he is right. And he went with the guys he believed could win it for him. And they almost did. If it wasn't for misses on good looks from both Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson, or one missed free throw by Devin Harris, or a missed putback layup by CJ Miles, or one key blown defensive assignment from both Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson, the Jazz win. Now after 2 overtimes? Then you probably need to think about subbing. Because when does any guy play longer than a full quarter in a row on this team? I don't think a Jazz man has ever played longer than a 10 minute stretch this season. Correct me if I am wrong.

It sucks that the Jazz lost last night, but what may be even worse, is the effect those minutes will have on the team in the future. Last night was the first 4 overtime game since 1997 and only the 9th of all time. Let's take a look at the boxscore from 1997.

via basketball-reference.com

A couple thoughts:

Brian Grant was fairly dominant for like 2 seasons in the NBA. Secondly, we now know what prematurely ended Arvydas Sabonis' career. It was this game. You should never play that guy 50 minutes in one night. He only played 24 minutes the next game, though. Also, none of those players that played 45 minutes or more, played more than 33 minutes the next game. And nobody except for Kevin Johnson, shot over 50% the next game either. Almost all of them played poorly. Also, both Portland and Phoenix made the playoffs, but lost in 4 games in the first round of the playoffs. Not directly correlated, but who knows how long it took those teams to recover?

The worry is that last night's loss leads to more losses. It will be very interesting to see how the Jazz play against the Nets tonight and if Ty cuts the starters' minutes. If the Jazz go on to win tonight and on Wednesday against Boston, last night becomes a distant memory. If we win one of the next two, we are probably equal as well, but if we lose to both New Jersey and Boston...

via orangepower.com

File this developing story under "things I didn't expect to happen."

okay. makes some sense...

Understandable. It's normal for Raja to feel uncomfortable about his role and...wait, this is Earl talking?

Earl Watson is clearly one of the most positive and "team" oriented guys on the Jazz, so it is really surprising to hear comments like this from him. The Jazz are in the middle of a 6 game win streak (when these comments were made) and back in the playoffs and Earl Watson is openly complaining about his role and playing time and his desire to possibly play with a different team.

I don't think any big deal will come of this, but it highlights something that bothers me about sports fans. We hate this kind of stuff. Admit it, you were mad at Earl for expressing these feelings. If you are, ask yourself, if you have ever wanted the Jazz to play harder in a game. As fans we are so good at demanding more effort and emotion and investment in the team, but when that spills over into desire and competition for playing time, we are offended and pissed. We can't have it both ways. It is completely normal for Earl Watson to be super displeased with the situation. It is the same fire that makes him a great addition to the team.

But fans can't have it both ways. Either you get the player that is feisty and competitive and wants to play and start and finish games, or you can have the player who just appreciates their chance, but doesn't seem fully invested in the team or in giving a best effort. Not both ways.

Right now the young guys are the right mix of both, quiet, professional and grateful for their chances, while playing hard when they get the chance. But that will change. They are bright eyed and bushy tailed and when they've been in the league a few years, they will drift to one side of the spectrum.

At the same time, the right move right now is to cut minutes from either Al or Paul or both and give them to Derrick, but you will also have to live with the repercussions of making that type of move. If Earl can sour, anybody can. But at the same time, you can't just make the young guys sacrifice, or else they will have cause to be dissatisfied eventually and you need to make them happy. They aren't guaranteed to be here long term and we need them to want to be. Maybe now we can see why the playing time conundrum is such a big deal. And also why the Jazz need to make a trade sooner than later. Because keeping every deserving player happy is damn near impossible, even though as fans, we expect it from our favorite players. I think Earl's comments prove that. Come on guys. Play with your whole hearts and guts and give us everything, but don't want anything for yourselves. You can't have it both ways.

And the saddest part of last night:

I'm not saying that Ty should feel pressure to play anybody who visits their hometown, but it is just really sad. Derrick Favors deserves more minutes than he is getting and he played well last night (and the previous 10 games), and still only saw 19 minutes in a 68 minute game. That's sad. If you felt that Derrick deserved more minutes and quietly, or loudly, begged Tyrone to put him in, imagine how Derrick's 80 family members and friends felt.

When the Jazz traded Adrian Dantley away, Frank Layden turned to Karl Malone and said "you are our guy." I am wondering if the Jazz will ever be smart enough to show Derrick Favors the same courtesy.

Tonight is a fairly big game at Energy Solutions Arena. It's big because the Jazz are in the thick of a playoff race and need every win. And it's big because the game is against the best team in the Western Conference and a team that the Jazz haven't been able to even compete with this year. The Jazz have already lost to the Thunder at home by 14 points and in Oklahoma by 26. The win in Los Angeles was a big deal, but if the Jazz were able to show something tonight, it might give them some more confidence and momentum.

Speaking of tonight, it is a great time for us to see what Tyrone Corbin does with the rotation. I'm the type of guy who thinks that the starting lineup should stay the same, just for the sake of status and cohesion, but giving Favors a few more minutes is easy, in my opinion. I'm no coach, but Favors' regular rotation is to come in with 2-3 minutes left in the first and third quarters and essentially play two 10 minute stretches. But if you subbed Favors in for Millsap 4 minutes earlier, at the 6 minute mark and let Favors play 14 minutes before being subbed out. Then Favors could sub in for the last 2 minutes of the third quarter and finish out the game alongside Millsap. Favors would take 4-6 minutes from both Paul and Al. In an ideal world, Al, Millsap and Favors would all play 26 minutes and Kanter could play 18 himself. How the big man minutes are divided, will be interesting to watch for the next few games. And Favors better just be finishing games, no matter what.

Speaking of minutes distribution, it will also be interesting to see what Coach Corbin does with Alec Burks, who has really improved over the course of the season. In January to February, Burks has gone from 12 to 14 to 19 minutes per game, 5.5, to 6.5, to 8.5 points per game and 37 to 48 to 53 % shooting from the field. At this rate, Alec will be playing 36 minutes per game, and scoring 24.5 points per game on 80% shooting by the middle of his 3rd year.

And apparently, Alec is a great cook under limiting circumstances:

We are in the midst of the NCAA tournament and I think this is a great time to do some scouting for potential Jazz players. I still believe the Jazz will end up with a lottery pick this year, somehow, someway. Here are a few players you should pay special attention to this Thursday and Friday::

Bradley Beal, #23, G, Florida

Beal is a small shooting guard, in the same vein of Eric Gordon. He is a little undersized to guard all shooting guards in the NBA, but Beal has scoring ability and an all around offensive game. He shoots a mediocre percentage from both the floor and the 3 point line, which is concerning, but he also gets to the line about 5 times a game, which is good for a guard his size. And even though he doesn't make his shots enough, they sure are perty to watch. I like Beal and I think the Jazz will too.

Perry Jones III, #1, F, Baylor

Jones has all the physical tools and skills to be a great player. He's built like a power forward with some guard skills, similar to Lamar Odom, or Lebron James to a lesser degree. Everytime I watch Baylor play, I catch myself saying at least once, "who is that guard? He is big." And it turns out it is Jones rebounding the ball and taking it up the court with ease and fluidity. The problem is that Jones disappears from games and doesn't put his stamp on games that he plays in. His effort and desire have been questioned by every draft analyst I can think of. But to me, he is too talented to just brush off as a lost cause. I can't put my finger on why, but I believe he will be the type of player whose game is better suited for the NBA than college. I think he will be a top 5 player in this draft, who could fall to the late lottery to the Jazz.

Thomas Robinson, #0, F, Kansas

Robinson is my favorite player in the country. He is all heart and a lot of talent. Like almost any college prospect, he has his faults, but I believe he is the 2nd or 3rd best player in this upcoming draft. He is a bit like a Gerald Wallace with a jump shot. He's tough, does a little bit of everything on offense and defense and never takes a play off. In some ways, he is a longer, taller Paul Millsap.

And then there is this Kidd that might be the best fit and prospect for the Jazz this year. He's a small forward, who plays hard, plays defense and would essentially be the glue to put together all the fantastic pieces for the Jazz. In a lot of ways, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist would be the perfect pick for the Jazz. The Jazz will just have to figure out how to get into the top 3 picks and convince MKG to leave Kentucky.

This downbeat is dedicated to the future of the Utah Jazz, namely Derrick Favors. Why is he the future? Because he is the main piece of the Deron Williams trade. He's what we have to show from trading our present superstar. It might seem unfair to call Derrick the future, but the Jazz's floor and ceiling is directly related to Derrick's floor and ceiling. If he can be great, the Jazz will be great, no matter what happens with Hayward or Burks, or Kanter. The same is true, if he is very good, mediocre or poor. I would call Favors pretty good to very good right now.

Food for thought:

via espn.com/nba

It shouldn't take too long to figure out which starting big man is which, but hopefully you can see that Derrick Favors' offense isn't really very far behind Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap's. Especially encouraging is the field goal percentage and the free throw attempts per shot attempt. And we haven't even talked about the defense.

So how about Derrick Favors' defense? Well, defense is the hardest to quantify through statistical evidence, but there is no question that Derrick Favors gives us a big lift defensively. I'll just touch the tip of the iceberg with this fact:

The Jazz, on the season, have allowed teams to score 104 points per 100 possessions according to Hoopdata. In the 8 games that Derrick Favors has started, that number is 98.5. And that includes Derrick's first two starts, where the Jazz gave up 109 and 113.6 points respectively to the Lakers and the Nuggets.

So with all these facts, I believe there are only 3 appropriate courses of action.

1) Start Derrick Favors over Paul Millsap

2) Start Derrick Favors over Al Jefferson

3) Take some combination of 10 minutes from Jefferson and Millsap and give them to Favors. And let Favors finish games as well.

But where should Favors start?

For several reasons, I think it makes more sense to play Favors alongside Paul Millsap, but there are certainly strong arguments to be made for starting D15 with Al Jefferson. These numbers above are again skewed, by Favors first two starts, which were poor, but I think if you had a larger sample size, you would find similar patterns.

Also, I'm afraid that when Al returns, Coach Corbin will opt for option 4, which is to do things exactly how he was doing them.

Also Derrick Favors' free throw shooting is trending in the right direction. He's shooting 63% this season. Just to show that guys can improve, Karl Malone didn't shoot above 60% until his 3rd year in the league. Also there's this:

Pretty special night for Al Jefferson, who dedicated last night's game to his grandmother who passed away the day before. You would have certainly given the guy a pass, if he had come out and played poorly with all that going on, but I was really really happy that it wasn't the case. Al Jefferson had one of his better shooting nights of the year. Thirty-three points on 14-18 shooting, with 12 rebounds, while going 4-4 from the free throw line.

Al Jefferson post game interview.

You would would be hard pressed to find 5 more likeable personalities in the NBA than Al Jefferson.

Al Jefferson also hit his first 3 pointer of his career, having missed his previous 23 attempts before hitting one last night. I think it's about time we start drawing up plays for him. It got me thinking about other Jazz players who Al Jefferson has now passed on the all time 3 pointers made list.

Utah Jazz Players to never hit a 3 pointer list (not comprehensive)

Kyrylo Fesenko

Mark Eaton

Curtis Borchardt

Jarron Collins

Utah Jazz Players who have surprisingly hit a 3 pointer (not comprehensive)

Greg Ostertag

Adam Keefe

Antoine Carr

Jose Ortiz

Carlos Boozer, although he never hit one as a Jazzman

Last year at this time, I wrote a couple of pieces on looking at lottery picks in the March Madness Tournament. I'd like to do that again, but don't know if I'll be able to.

For primers, I will just make a quick list of games this weekend with implications to the Jazz's draft prospects.

Thursday, March 15

4:40 PM ET Harvard at Vanderbilt

player to watch for:

• Jeff Taylor, 6-7, SF, Vanderbilt

6:50 PM ET TBA at Kentucky

players to watch for:

• Anthony Davis, 6-11, C, Kentucky
• Michael Kidd-Gilchirst, 6-7, SF, Kentucky
• Marquis Teague, 6-0, PG, Kentucky
• Terrence Jones, 6-8, F, Kentucky

7:27 PM ET South Dakota State at Baylor

players to watch for:

• Perry Jones III, 6-11, PF, Baylor
• Quincy Miller, 6-8, SF, Baylor

9:20 PM ET Connecticut at Iowas State

players to watch for:

• Andre Drummond, 6-11, C, UCONN
• Jeremy Lamb, 6-5, SG, UCONN

9:45 PM ET NM State at Indiana

player to watch for:

• Cody Zeller, 6-10, C, Indiana

9:50 PM ET Loyola at Ohio State

player to watch for:

• Jared Sullinger, 6-9, PF, OSU

Friday, March 16

12:15 PM ET Texas at Cincinnati

Player to watch for:

• Myck Kabongo, 6-0, PG, Texas

2:10 PM ET Virginia at Florida

players to watch for:

• Bradley Beal, 6-4, SG, UF
• Patric Young, 6-9, C, UF

2:45 PM ET St. Bonaventure at Florida State

player to watch for:

• Andrew Nicholson, 6-9, PF, St. Bonaventure

4:10 PM ET TBA at UNC

players to watch for:

• Harrison Barnes, 6-8, SF, UNC
• Tyler Zeller, 6-11, C, UNC
• John Henson, 6-10, PF, UNC
• Kendall Marshall, 6-1, PG, UNC

7:15 PM ET Lehigh at Duke

player to watch for:

• Austin Rivers, 6-5, SG, Duke

9:57 PM ET Detroit at Kansas

player to watch for:

• Thomas Robinson, 6-8, PF, Kansas

Talk of the draft gives me an excuse to highlight Bismack Biyombo, who I love and would have liked to have seen the Jazz draft at #3 last draft.

How many players in teh league can make the highlight of the night on a defensive play? And notice his technique. He jumps up and doesn't even make a play on the ball. He just blocks the rim with both hands. Awesome.

Wanna beat me at something? Come join theutahjazzblog bracket contest.

Losing to the Bulls on Saturday night was a little bit like turning on the TV and seeing (insert your celebrity crush here) doing an interview on Entertainment Tonight. You dated this celebrity in high school when he/she was gangly and had braces. He/she was in love with you and you really enjoyed dating him/her. They were cute and fun and you had no complaints, but you just were never sure if they would grow into their body or mature into a beautiful (wo)man. You made up an excuse and broke things off with them and they were devastated. Now, not only are you kicking yourself for breaking up with this celebrity before they blossomed, but in the interview, they are now talking about you as their ex and revealing all of your faults to everyone watching. They talk about how you had a temper, and really bad breath and were super cheap and only took them out to fast food restaurants and forgot important dates. There this celebrity is, looking super attractive and pointing out every one of your flaws. And you could have still been with this person. That's a real-life application with no exaggeration of how that game felt.

I'm sorry Jessica. I didn't know you would lose the braces and glasses.

There is certainly no shame in losing to arguably the best team in the league on the road, but you couldn't help but wonder what could have been while watching the Bulls. Last season's Jazz team could've been similar to this year's Bulls team in makeup. Deron (star pg), Wesley Matthews (defensive wing who shoots 3s), Kirilenko (defensive wing who shouldn't shoot 3s), Boozer (rebounder, pick n roll/pop threat) and Fesenko (foreign guy who does little else but make the opposing team's offense difficult to run) with Kyle Korver, Gordon Hayward and Paul Millsap off the bench.

Let's play a little choose your own adventure and see what could have been with this team. I think it will be fun. So many variables, so much imagination. Just like the choose your own adventure books from all of our childhoods. So say you are the Jazz and you want to bring back the whole crew for one last ride. You sign Carlos Boozer to 5 years, $75 million. (If you would like to choose this path, please jump to 2B to continue your adventure).

Or...The Jazz receive a trade exception for Carlos Boozer when he is signed and traded to the Bulls. They decide that they need shooters, so they match Portland's offer to Wesley Matthews and resign Kyle Korver and Kyrylo Fesenko. (If you would like to choose this path, please jump to 3B to continue your adventure).

As the cowhide globe turns. No doubt you have heard about the beef between Coach Corbin and Raja Bell. Sltrib's Brian T. Smith has now reported that there was a confrontation between Bell and Corbin and have had a "on-off relationship." Smith also reports that Bell will be having a sitdown meeting with Coach Corbin and Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor sometime today, before the game against the Pistons. We can all speculate, and many have, exactly what this means for the Jazz and Raja moving forward. Obviously, Bell and Corbin have a disagreement about something, but I'm not going to speculate about what. What I will say, is that I predict that Raja will play and start tonight against the Pistons. Even if the Jazz and Raja decide to part ways today, it is in the team's best interest to proceed business as usual, and attempt to find a trade for Bell, before a buyout becomes an option.

And while I acknowledge that Bell would be hard to trade, you can't tell me that the LA Clippers couldn't use him right about now. I'm sure we will all learn more later today.

B. So you've purchased a Carlos Boozer. Congratulations, Utah. You are really going for it this year, so you also resign Kyle Korver to 3 years and $15 million. Unfortunately, Portland pulls their stunt at the exact wrong time and they successfully pry Wesley Matthews away from the team. You resign Kyrylo Fesenko and Earl Watson. You have a great team, but you also cost about $78 million. The Jazz simply can't pay that much for a team, even though the Jazz lead their division and are the 2nd best team in the West at the trade deadline. The Jazz have to cut payroll by giving Paul Millsap away to the Pacers for Tyler Hansbrough. Now the Jazz finish 3rd in the West and draw Denver in the first round of the playoffs. They win in 5 games, but then lose to the Lakers in round 2, business as usual.

Andrei Kirilenko's contract comes off the books, but the loss to the Lakers is frustrating and Deron Williams vocalizes his displeasure at the Jazz's inability to keep guys like Millsap and Matthews. The Jazz trade Deron Williams in the offseason to the LA Clippers for Eric Bledsoe, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and a pick.

And the Jazz are stilll on the books for 4 more years and $64 million for Carlos Boozer. And we are a fringe playoff team.

Bill Simmons wrote his yearly trade value piece this last week where he ranks NBA players in terms of their ability and contract and ultimately trade value. Here is what he had to say about Paul Millsap and Derrick Favors.

44. Ty Lawson
43. Paul Millsap
Everyone pounded the "Lawson is underrated!!!!" angle so violently that he became slightly overrated for someone who gives a fringe playoff team a 16-7 with 47/32/81 shooting splits and a couple of look-how-freaking-fast-he-is highlights per game. Just don't expect Millsap to give up that "So Underrated He's Slightly Overrated" belt anytime soon — not when he's averaging a 15-9 every game, making big shots for an overachieving team, and wielding a favorable contract ($16.4 million total through next season) and even more favorable PER ranking (this year: 16th overall). He's called "The Underrated Paul Millsap" pretty much as a rule at this point. All of this worries me — once you become overrated for being underrated, bad things ensue. Just ask Ben Wallace (overpaid by Chicago, never the same) and David West (blew out his knee). Tread carefully, Paul Millsap.

47. Derrick Favors
46. Evan Turner
Let's see … Philly needs to get bigger … Utah needs to get better on the perimeter … both teams have talented no. 2 overall picks who aren't playing enough … both teams are a little too attached to those guys … the Trade Machine approves … (can't we just call this one in????)

Let's forget about the fact that Bill SImmons thought that both Turner and Favors are #2 picks, who didn't come from the same draft. Maybe he has a point. When I think of trading Favors for Turner, I get repulsed. I don't want to do it. But maybe we just overvalue Favors because he's ours. If Turner and Favors were switched, would I want to trade Turner for Favors?

B The Jazz run a starting lineup of D will, Matthews, Kirilenko, Millsap and Fesenko, with CJ and Kyle, Earl Watson and Hayward off the bench. They are a little thin at center so they sign Francisco Elson and Kwame Brown for about $3 million total. They are over the cap, but under the luxury tax by a couple million dollars. They are super fun to watch and Kirilenko gets to play backup power forward. But they still have a trade exception and they have a decision to make. Gerald Wallace becomes available for a lottery protected pick. (If you wish to continue with the Jazz acquiring Gerald Wallace, please continue onto 4B now. If you wish for the Jazz to pass on acquiring Gerald Wallace and proceed as constituted, continue to 4C).

Via Basketball John, here is a funny video of some Jazz fans in Philly who are big enough fans to go see the team off the bus, but not big enough fans to know who more than 5 of the players are. Don't be that fan.

4B. The Jazz don't have enough money to simply add Gerald Wallace and take a huge luxury tax hit, so they trade Charlotte CJ's small contract, Kosta Koufos and the two first round picks that would have gone to the Al Jefferson trade that didn't happen in this Jazz universe. The Jazz have a deep and versatile team with Wallace and finish with the 4th best record in the West. Unfortunately that pairs the Jazz up with the up and coming Oklahoma City Thunder, who upset the Jazz in 7 games in the first round. Deron gets traded in the offseason and the Jazz become the Portland Trailblazers.

4C. The Jazz pass on acquiring Wallace and have one more opportunity to make a trade. The Clippers really want to dump Baron Davis' contract and since the Jazz have saved money by not using their exception, they are in position to trade Mehmet Okur's contract for Davis. (if you would like the Jazz to trade for Baron Davis jump to 5B to see what happens; otherwise continue reading to see what happens if they don't trade for Davis). The Jazz pass on using their exception. They are the 6th best team in the West and the Jazz proactively trade Deron Williams to New Jersey for Devin Harris, Derrick Favors and the picks. The Jazz would have the same team as they have now, minus Al Jefferson.

Tonight's game will be the first time this season that Jazz fans will get to see Piston's rookie Brandon Knight. Knight is significant because he was highly coveted among Jazz fans. It's unofficial, but I would guess that if you polled every Jazz fan, the majority would say they wanted the Jazz to draft Knight. Looking back, who would you have the Jazz draft?

5B. The Jazz trade Okur for Baron Davis and the Clippers' unprotected first round pick. They hover around the 6th seed, until the Jazz proactively trade Deron Williams to New Jersey for the same deal. The Jazz miss the playoffs and the Clippers' pick becomes the #1 overall pick, as we all know and the Jazz are able to nab, Kyrie Irving, Enes Kanter and Alec Burks in the draft. These picks fit perfectly with Matthews, Korver, and Millsap, who are all willing to come off the bench and the Jazz buy Baron Davis out. The Jazz have now quickly built one of the youngest and most talented teams of all time and win the first of many championships just 4 years later. The End.

We all know what it takes to come up with a trade in the NBA: the ESPN trade machine and an imagination. Or at least that is what creates the most rumors and fan hopes and dreams. The truth is that trades are more complex than any fan realizes, including myself. This is evidenced by the fact that there have been hardly any trades since teams were able to make trades. In fact, here are the 10 trades that have happened since the end of the lockout. And I bet you only remember 6, maybe 7 of them happening:

• New York Knicks traded forward Ronny Turiaf, cash considerations and a 2013 second-round draft pick to Washington and guard Andy Rautins to Dallas, who sent center Tyson Chandler and the draft rights to Ahmad Nivins and Giorgos Printezis to New York and a 2012 second-round draft pick to Washington. Washington also sent a conditional future second-round draft pick to Dallas.

• Los Angeles Lakers traded forward Lamar Odom and second-round pick to the Dallas Mavericks for a first-round pick and $8.9 million trade exception.

• Boston Celtics acquired forward Brandon Bass from Orlando for forward Glen Davis and guard Von Wafer.

• Minnesota Timberwolves traded forward Lazar Hayward to the Oklahoma City Thunder for two conditional second-round draft picks and guard Robert Vaden.

• Denver Nuggets acquired guard/forward Rudy Fernandez and forward Corey Brewer from the Dallas Mavericks for a future second-round draft pick.

• New Orleans Hornets traded guard Chris Paul and two future second-round draft picks to the Los Angeles Clippers for guard Eric Gordon, forward Al-Farouq Aminu, center Chris Kaman and a first-round draft choice.

• Golden State traded forward Lou Amundson to Indiana for guard Brandon Rush.

• New Jersey acquired center Mehmet Okur from the Utah Jazz for their second-round draft pick in 2015.

• Memphis traded guard Greivis Vasquez to New Orleans for guard Quincy Pondexter.

• Philadelphia traded forward Marreese Speights to Memphis and Memphis traded guard Xavier Henry to New Orleans. The 76ers received a 2012 second-round draft pick from Memphis and a 2013 second-round draft pick New Orleans.

Several things have to line up just right for an NBA trade to be made. There needs to be motivation on both sides of the trade. The salaries have to match up in just the right way according to the CBA and GMs have to have a realistic assessment of their players and talent.

Any NBA fan would willingly give up one of their mediocre players, or even several of their mediocre players to acquire a better than average player. But the other team has to want your mediocre players and that only happens under special circumstances.

To best assess the tradeability of a player, you must look at his contract, his skill level, teams that would need or want him, and fit. Today, we will do just that with each individual Jazz player, comprising the first ever Comprehensive Utah Jazz Trade Almanac.

Continue reading this post »

Anytime a Jazz player reaches a new career high, it should be mentioned and commended. With performances like last night, Al Jefferson is going to find himself on the short list of Utah Jazz triple doublers. Tyrone Corbin mentioned starting Josh Howard, was due partly to Howard's ability to cut in the offense, so I wondered if those two hooked up and how often. Here is a list of Al's dishes:

-Josh Howard makes 6 foot shot

-Gordon Hayward makes 26 foot point shot

-Josh Howard makes 6 foot two point shot

-Josh Howard makes layup

-Paul Millsap makes jumper

-Paul Millsap makes jumper

-Jamaal Tinsley makes 25 foot 3 point jumper

Al Jefferson has certainly grown as a passer since coming to the Jazz. His selfish shot selection is getting smaller and smaller by each game. One thing I have wanted to see from him is for his passing to become more instinctual. It is really easy and the right play to pass to the open guy off a double team and Al had a hard time making even easy passes at first, but as evidenced by Al hitting more cutters for baskets (Ty appears to be right about Howard in that regard), Jefferson is become a more versatile passer as well. So good for him.

This type of Al Jefferson is becoming more and more rare.

About that starting lineup change...

I didn't include the news of Josh Howard starting over Gordon Hayward in yesterday's downbeat because I wanted to digest the info for a day, before I reacted to it emotionally. It wasn't really surprising news, since Coach Corbin hinted at the move before the All-Star break. Amar has already wrote a piece about why Gordon going to the bench might be a good thing. I think it was obvious that he would get more touches coming off the bench and if you know me, you know that I prefer touches to minutes when it comes to developing wings. But the bottom line is that this lineup change is going to work out fine. Why?

Because this team's roster has so many equal pieces that you could switch one or two or three players for one another in lineups and playing time and the overall production of the team wouldn't be that much different. When you swap Millsap for Favors, you lose some offense, but you gain some defense. Same goes for Jefferson and Kanter. Same with Raja and CJ and Howard and Hayward, and Harris and Earl. I mean, if Harris and Watson switched roles and minutes right now, would the team be much better? Much worse? So whatever lineup Corbin chooses, it would have some pluses and some minuses and probably add up to a fringe playoff team, that wins some great games at home, loses some inexcusable games on the road.

If you don't listen to some of David Locke's podcasts, Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus mentioned that if the Jazz started Kanter and Favors and gave them 30 minutes a night and gave Jefferson and Millsap 15 minutes a night off the bench, that the Jazz would only be one or two games worse for it. That's a debatable statement, but I believe that is true. It's part of the reason I question the makeup of this roster.

I know a lot of Jazz fans see some Manu Ginobili in Hayward's game and that probably prompted the Sixth Man of the Year talk last night on Twitter and Facebook. Unfortunately Gordon Hayward has started too many games this season to qualify for the award, but maybe we should start the campaign for next season. Afterall, James Harden might be a starter then.