SB Nation User Blog: cmathewson

Twins add Morillo to 40 man

cmathewson — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:15:54 -0000

Twins add Morillo to 40 man

I expected this. Also, they took Armando Gabino and Justin Huber off the 40-man. Gabino was claimed by Baltimore and Huber cleared waivers.

Great Article and Video on Super Prospect Miguel Angel Sano

cmathewson — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:27:37 -0000

Great Article and Video on Super Prospect Miguel Angel Sano

Highly recommended.

Mauer is Twins MVP

cmathewson — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:23:52 -0000

Mauer is Twins MVP

Also in the news: We are currently in the season of Fall, otherwise known as "Autumn".

Jake Mauer Named Fort Myers Miracle Manager

cmathewson — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:39:56 -0000

Jake Mauer Named Fort Myers Miracle Manager

After being named Manager of the Year in the Gulf Coast league--for guiding a team full of teenagers from five continents to the league championship--the other Mauer has been named the manager of the Twins FSL (High A) affiliate.

My swan song: What to do for 2010?

cmathewson — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:56:23 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

about 1 month ago: Workers take out home plate after Game 3 of the American League division baseball series between the Minnesota Twins and the New York Yankeeson Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Yankees won 4-1 and swept the series. The game is the last baseball game to be played in the Metrodome. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Browse more photos »

This will be my last front-page story for TwinkieTown. I'll still comment and post the occasional fanpost. But I'm stepping away from regular duties and into the title of editor at large.

I'm just too busy to do the kind of job for Jesse and company that I would like to do. I have a high-profile job as editor in chief of ibm.com and I'm publishing a book about writing for the Web. Both jobs will soon require me to publish more with blogs, articles and conference presentations. So I thought this was as good a time as any to step away so that I can devote the energy I have put into this blog on those core parts of my job.

Now that I got that out of the way, let's get down to business. For some reason, beat writers, columnists and bloggers feel the need to look at next year almost before finishing the season. Though I still want to savor the miraculous comeback of this team culminating in the greatest regular season game in Metrodome history, I understand this need. It's especially compelling considering that the Twins are leaving the Dome for greener pastures and can expect a sizable revenue increase in the new venue. Everybody wants to talk about it, so lets talk about it.

Question 1: How much can we expect the Twins to spend in 2010?

As John Bonnes shows, the Twins payroll has held pretty steady around a mean of $60 million since 2003. That payroll is a function of the revenue that they got in the Metrodome, which featured the worst lease in major league baseball. That lease gives them only 25 percent of concession revenues and nothing for suites or parking. Oddly enough, the Vikings get the lion's share of suite and concession revenue, and the Star Tribune gets almost all of the parking revenue because they own the lots. Even with this situation, the Twins get something like $160 million in revenue, including TV, radio and Internet broadcasting revenue.

Those crappy aspects of the lease will be changing in 2010, as the Twins will get all suite and concession revenue, and much of the parking revenue. Even if the Twins' attendance is steady in the new stadium at 2.2 million, they can expect at least an additional $20 million in revenue. But the Twins can expect more like 3 million in attendance in their honeymoon year at Target Field. The Twins estimate that they will get an additional $40 million in revenue in 2010. So plan on about $200 million in revenue for 2010, as a rough estimate.

The Twins operate on a budget based on about 50 percent of revenues going to the baseball department, including player salaries. In 2009, the Twins spent the most they had ever spent on international signings (more than $7 million) and a lot more than typical on draft bonuses (around $5 million). Add that to a $65 million budget for major league salaries and about $5 million for minor league operations, and the baseball department came in at $82 million. With 2.2 million in attendance (plus a couple of extra gates), they probably pulled in around $165 million.So their spending was right on track.

Let's say the Twins devote half of the estimated $40 million in new revenue they get in 2010 to the baseball department. That means $20 million more for salaries and signing bonuses. Most of that will likely go to salaries because the Twins will not get additional draft picks from free agents and they are unlikely to spend as lavishly internationally. Prospects like Miguel Angel Sano and Max Kepler only come around every few years. So let's say the Twins will devote all of the $20 million to player salaries, plus about $3 million from the $12 million they spent to sign new talent in 2009. That's $23 million they can spend in salaries over and above what they spent in 2009. Add that to the $65 million they spent in 2009, and the 2010 salaries should be around $88 million.

Question 2: What is committed for 2010?

Rather than recreate the wheel, here we can rely on Bonnes' article again. According to the Twins Geek, the Twins are on the hook for $75 mil in salaries in 2010, making a few assumptions. Namely:

Glen Perkins will be a former Twin, either in Rochester or working for another organization.
Boof Bonser will make the team and earn an estimated $1 million as an arbitration-eligible player.
Both Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez will earn around $1 million in arbitration as well. That last assumption is a bit suspect, as I expect the Twins to try to trade one or the other. But let's say the guy they get for him will cost the same.
Brendan Harris will be brought back for around $1 million. Meh. They're not likely to nontender him. But if they enhance their infield the way we all hope, they won't have room for him.
Jesse Crain will not get market rates in arbitration. Market rates for good set-up guys are in the John Rauch arena--$2.7 million. The Geek has Crain's estimated arbitration salary at $1.75 million. Considering his time in AAA and injuries, I'd say that's reasonable.
Matt Guerrier will get market rates in arbitration, after arguably his best season in his second year of arbitration.
Besides guaranteed contracts for Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto (!) and others, every other player on the roster will make the minimum salary.

So, assuming Bonnes is on the money with his $75 million estimate, the Twins will be able to add $13 million for a few key acquisitions.

Question 3: How should the Twins spend the extra cash?

Finally, the fun part. Everybody loves to spend other people's money, right? How will the Twins spend the $13 million in extra money for 2010? Note that this is a one-time windfall, because the Twins 2011 salaries look a lot closer to their estimated budgets, when you add raises for Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer. If the Twins restructure Joe Mauer's contract for 2010 to reduce thier burdens in future years, the $13 million temporary slush fund for 2010 evaporates rather quickly. But let's not go there. Let's hope they sign Mauer to an extension that keeps his $12.5 million 2010 salary in tact.

Starting pitcher: The Twins can plan on Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Brian (Don't call me Kevin) Duensing as the top four starters. Let's assume they send Francisco Liriano to the bullpen. They will need to sign a starter. Let's also assume they don't blow the whole wad on John Lackey, but spend, say, $6 million, who can they afford? Answer: Carl Pavano.
Shortstop: My hope is they look for an acquisition here. If they acquired, say JJ Hardy, they would spend $1 million or so to pay him in his first year of arbitration. They could pay that with the money they save in nontendering Harris. If they do sign someone like Orlando Cabrera, plan on a $4 million salary. Other free agents of interest include Jack Wilson, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, and Adam Everett. Wilson isn't much better than Cabrera. Scutaro is a Type A free agent. Tejada is a possibility for third base, but not short. And we've been there, done that with Everett. Though I favor an acquisition of Hardy, I would bet everything I've ever made writing for this blog that the Twins bring Cabrera back, consuming most of their remaining windfall in the process.
Second Base: This is where the hope for an acquisition that eases the salary burden at short comes in. There are a lot of good second basemen headed for free agency, including Freddy Sanchez, Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco and Akinori Iwamura (assuming the Rays decline their club option), Mark DeRosa, and Jamey Carroll. Trouble is, Sanchez, Hudson and Polanco are Type A free agents. So that leaves Iwamura, DeRosa and Carroll, all of those guys can be had for less than $4 mil. My guess? The Twins sign Iwamura for an incentive-laden contract with a $3 mil base. The alternative is Nick Punto as your starter on opening day 2010. Double or nothing we see Cabrera and Punto in the middle infield to start the year.
Third Base: The Twins could choose to sign a third baseman instead, though, the way Matt Tolbert played in September and October, I would not be surprised if they pencil him in there until Danny Valencia is ready. They also could tender Harris a contract as insurance. But if they choose to sign a third baseman, Adam Kennedy, Iwamura and DeRosa would be inexpensive options.

Bottom line, Twins fans can expect the Twins to use their temporary windfall to keep the team that got them to the playoffs together for at least another year. If they do sign an outside free agent, it will likely be one of the guys left without a deal in February. The short list includes Tejada, Carroll, DeRosa, Kennedy and Iwamura. My bet is on Iwamura. But don't count on him playing everyday until May. It takes 12 months for an ACL tear to fully heal.

Twins Playoff Roster

cmathewson — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:34:53 -0000

Twins Playoff Roster

No Buscher. 12 pitchers.

Twins are Central Division Champs!

cmathewson — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 01:47:42 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

about 1 month ago: Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez (22) scores the game-winning run as his teammates follow during the 12th inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Twins won 6-5 to take the AL Central title. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Browse more photos »

They saved their best for last. In what will go down as the best regular season game in Metrodome history, the Twins matched the Tigers hit for hit and play for play, eventually winning in the bottom of the 12th to claim the Central Division Championship.

The Twins became the first team in baseball history to win the pennant after being behind by three games with four games to play. Both teams stranded runners, had runners thrown out in razor close plays, and failed in key situations. On the flip side, both teams got outs when they really needed them, especially late. Both managers used their whole bench and their whole bullpens to punch and counter punch into the 12th inning. Finally, it was Alexi Casilla, who redeemed himself for a late break on a tag play in the bottom of the 10th, to hit the game winning single, scoring Carlos Gomez from second.

Neither player started the game--Gomez was a defensive substitution and Casilla was a pinch runner. Neither player played much down the stretch as both players were benched during the season. But their presence in the middle of the mob around home plate as the Twins celebrated their fifth division championship this decade is indicative of the Twins season. It took the entire team to win this division and it took the entire team to win this game.

The largest regular season crowd in Metrodome history screamed and waved their hankies, standing for most of the extra frames. In the end, they made the loudest noise I've ever heard on TV to cheer for the most improbable comeback in baseball history. Now the team is carrying that energy into the clubhouse, spraying champagne on their teammates and hooting and hollering.

Starters Scott Baker and Rick Porcello matched each other pitch for pitch through five innings. Actually, Porcello pitched better than Baker, striking out eight in his five innings of work. He used a different approach tonight. The sinker baller threw high fastballs, striking out hitter after hitter, including the American League Batting Champion on a check swing--his first check swing strikeout of the year. But eventually Porcello tired and the Twins got him for two runs, and forcing Jim Leyland to go to his bullpen earlier than he wanted.

Baker gave up three runs in the third, but held the Tigers right there into the seventh. Jon Rauch got him out of a jam, one of six relievers to strand runners late in the game to keep the Twins in it. Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain and finally Bobby Keppel clawed their way through the late innings. Nathan got a big double play in his second inning of work with the winning run on third and Keppel stranded the bases loaded in the top of the 12th to get his first major league victory.

The Twins got homers from Jason Kubel and Orlando Cabrera, the latter gave the team a 4-3 lead going into the eight inning. But the Tigers came back to tie it on a homer by Maglio Ordonez. After the Ordonez homer, Ron Gardenhire brought in Nathan who got out of a jam in the eighth and into one in the ninth. But Ordonez lined into a double play to keep the game tied going into the bottom of the inning and send it into extras, where the intensity of the game seemed to dial up a notch in every inning.

The Tigers scored their fifth run in the top of the tenth off Jesse Crain. Aubrey Huff was brushed by a pitch and Brandon Inge lined a double to score pinch runner Don Kelly from first on a bang-bang play at home. But the Twins came back in the bottom of the inning. Michael Cuddyer hit what looked like a single that Ryan Raburn tried to make a circus catch on and it got by him all the way to the wall for a triple. After a ground out and a walk, Matt Tolbert hit a six hopper up the middle past Placido Polanco to score Cuddyer with the tying run.

In the top of the 12th, the Tigers loaded the bases against Bobby Keppel. Brandon Inge appeared to be hit by a pitch but was not awarded first by Plate Umpire Randy Marsh, who had a tough night behind the plate. Inge instead grounded into a 4-2 force at the plate to keep the game tied. Keppel got Gerald Laird to swing at a 3-2 slider at the shoe tops to preserve the tie and set up the 12th inning heroics.

Fernando Rodney, pitching in his fourth inning, allowed leadoff hitter Gomez to hit a single to left. Cuddyer moved him to second on a ground out. And then Leyland did the Twins a favor by intentionally walking Delmon Young to get to Alexi Casilla. Young had grounded out on the first pitch four times in the game, and Casilla was 3-6 off the tiring Rodney before rolling the first pitch into right field for the game and division winning hit.

Studs:

Joe Nathan: Five of the toughest outs of the year.

Matt Tolbert: He keep battling and coming up big in key situations.

Orlando Cabrera: His 2-run dinger gave the Twins a momentary lead and put a charge into the Dome.

Joe Mauer: 2-4 with two walks and some huge plays behind the plate on balls in the dirt.

Nick Punto: He had two huge at bats and a heads-up play to home when the conventional play would have been to second in the twelfth to preserve the tie.

Duds:

Randy Marsh: My brother Stu called me after the third inning complaining about the tight strike zone. Porcello got a lot of calls that Baker did not tonight, and that trend continued into the late innings, especially on the low strike. But Marsh was not kind to the Tigers either, missing the Inge HBP with the bases loaded in a tie game.

Delmon Young: When this guy stops swinging at the first pitch, he'll be pretty good.

Honor Redeemed:

Alexi Casilla: Casilla was down the line a couple of steps when Raburn caught what looked like the game winning sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 10th. Because of the late tag, he was thrown out at the plate by inches. If he's standing on the bag for the tag, he should have scored the winning run. Instead he hit the game winner in the bottom of the 12th.

Ryan Raburn: Rayburn played a single into a triple in the bottom of the tenth, allowing the tying run to eventually score. That same inning, he gunned down the winning run at the plate.

Season Encore--Game 163: Tigers @ Twins

cmathewson — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 16:08:53 -0000

First Pitch: 4:07 pm CDT
TV: TBS
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Bless You Boys

Left for dead, the Twins are now in the position to do what no other team in the history of baseball has done: Come back from three games down with four games to play to win the division. On the other hand, the Tigers could be the only team to choke under those circumstances. The stakes couldn't be higher.

The Dome will be full to the rafters for the fourth straight day. Like the Twins, just when you think Baggie Ball is dead, it comes crawling out of the grave to haunt the opposition, whether it be the Packers, the Tigers, or, hopefully, the Yankees. Fittingly, it's been raining here off and on for several days now, so no game 163 could be played out of doors.

Fortunately, Minnesota sports fans still have enough left in their voices to make more noise than a 747 inside of a hanger. Ear plugs and homer hankies and the whole package of Metrodome Magic will be there. Maybe the sun will come out long enough to cause Curtis Granderson to lose a fly ball in the roof, leading to the deciding run. Over 28 years under the Circus Tent, stranger things have happened. Sunday featured several of them, including Kirby Piuckett Jr. taking down the sign that said there was one game left in the season, revealing the sign that indicates zero games left. I'm still trying to figure out how there could be a game today with the number 0 hanging above the Home Run Porch.

If the Twins can play as they have over thier last 20 games, I like their chances. All hands on deck. Do or die. October baseball. Get the overflow thread ready in the third inning. Oh, one more: The Twins are 19-6 when I have had the pleasure of making the game thread and the game wrap. Hopefully their Tuesday luck will continue.

Starting Pitchers

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Scott Baker	15-9	32	32	1	1	0	0	194.0	184	96	94	27	46	160	4.32	1.19

Baker's the Twins' ace--just the guy you want for a one-game playoff. Since May, he's been one of the top five starters in the league. The last time he faced the Tigers on Thursday, he held the cats scoreless over five innings. If he can repeat that today, the Twins should become Central Division Champs for the fifth time this decade.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rick Porcello	14-9	30	30	2	1	0	0	165.0	172	79	74	22	50	81	4.04	1.35

Pretty good for a kid who was pitching in high school two years ago. As good as Baker has been, Porcello has been better. The last two times he's faced the Twins have been quality starts. Both games were during the Twins 16-4 run. So Twins hitters will have their work cut out for them.

Line-ups

TIGERS (86-76)

1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Carlos Guillen, DH
6. Ryan Raburn, LF
7. Brandon Inge, 3B
8. Gerald Laird, C
9. Ramon Santiago, SS

TWINS (86-76)

1. Denard Span, CF
2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Jason Kubel, RF
5. Michael Cuddyer, 1B
6. Delmon Young, LF
7. Jose Morales, DH
8. Matt Tolbert, 3B
9. Nick Punto, 2B

Tigers hold off Twins 6-5

cmathewson — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 02:16:42 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

about 1 month ago: Detroit Tigers starter Justin Verlander pitches against the Minnesota Twins in the second inning of Game 2 of a baseball doubleheader Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Browse more photos »

The Detroit Tigers surged to a 5-0 lead off Twins' starter Brian Duensing, and held off the rallying Twins to earn a split in a day-night double header on Tuesday at Comerica Park in Detroit.

Justin Verlander started for Detroit and was lights out for the first five innings. But he ran into trouble in the sixth and eighth, giving up two runs in each inning as the Twins clawed back from an early deficit. Fernando Rodney relieved him in the ninth--after Verlander had thrown a season high 129 pitches--with a two-run lead and managed to save the game despite surrendering the Twins fifth run.

The insurance run came on a Curtis Granderson homer in the eighth off of Matt Guerrier, and it turned out to be the game winner.

Duensing did not have his best command on this night. He was continually falling behind hitters and working out of jams. It was bound to catch up with him at some point, and it did in the third with the Twins still comfortably behind 1-0.

With two on and two outs in the third, Duensing threw a hitable slider to Maglio Ordonez on a 3-2 count, and Ordonez doubled down the left field line to score both runners. In that situation, Duensing needs to throw a different pitch, probably the fastball, because it has to be a strike and the slider is not an effective strike pitch for him. The pitch is effective when he's ahead in the count and he can throw it down and in to a right handed hitter such as Ordonez. But it's the perfect pitch for a slider-speed bat like Ordonez to nail if it's in the strike zone. Ordonez did what he should have done, and that was the point of the game where Duensing needed to get an out.

Another key moment came after Duensing loaded the bases on walks (one intentional) with two outs in the fifth. Ron Gardenhire went to his sixth-best reliever--Bobby Keppel--to try to get out of the jam. Keppel delivered a first-pitch cookie down the middle to Brandon Inge, who laced it to left for a two-run single.

Damage control in either of those two innings would have kept the game within reach. But despite heroics by Denard Span, Orlando Cabrera and Jason Kubel, the Twins could not overcome those two key pitches.

The split puts the Twins right back where they started this morning, except time is running out to catch the Tigers. The last two games of this series are must-win games if they hope to catch the Tigers from two games behind with five games to play.

Studs:

1. Orlando Cabrera: He was in the middle of every rally, going 3-4 with 2 runs scored and an RBI.

2. Denard Span: Another two-hit, two-RBI game for Span. He also made a nice catch in right.

3. Jason Kubel: Also had two hits and two RBI off of Verlander.

Duds:

3. Brian Duensing: He has to throw more strikes early in the count and use his off-speed pitches as out pitches.

2. Bobby Keppel: When you come in with the bases loaded, you have to make a better pitch.

1. Michael Cuddyer: His outs ended four innings, stranding three runners in scoring position.

0. Gardy: Hello, Jesse Crain has not allowed a run since early August and you bring in Keppel?

Twins Sign Super Latin Prospect Miguel Angel Sano

cmathewson — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 23:15:02 -0000

Twins Sign Super Latin Prospect Miguel Angel Sano

On a scale of 1-10, this is a 10.